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股小年

股小年

个人简介：上九天揽月，下五洋捉鳖

IP属地：山东

38关注

11粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-10-05

$陆金所(LU)$不知道谁还记得我这个帖子

@股小年:$陆金所(LU)$卖了，后面在涨和我没关系了，我就看到2500亿的市值

2021-07-01

$零氪科技(LDOC)$朋友在这个公司工作过，其实一开始就是外包公司，后面有了自己的产品体系，随说不够完善，但是目前市值也不高，后面有发展空间

2021-06-30

$叮咚(DDL)$今天啥情况，幸亏昨天睡着了，打新没卖，今天跑了

2021-03-26

$知乎(ZH)$5股路过

2021-03-12

$京东(JD)$磨叽啥，别人都涨老高了，你原地蹦哒，你瞅瞅大忽悠拼夕夕

2021-01-26

$陆金所(LU)$卖了，后面在涨和我没关系了，我就看到2500亿的市值

2021-01-25

$富途控股(FUTU)$这是疯了吗

2021-01-22

这是我看过，角度最新颖的投资知识，学到了，感谢分享

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-01-22

$陆金所(LU)$终于牛逼了一把

2021-01-15

$Paladin Energy Ltd.(PALAF)$这个公司竟然没人发帖子，我看到3

2020-12-31

$陆金所(LU)$老板在打击互联网金融，你小子当铺还不涨？

2020-12-29

全是拉来的流量，一点粘性没有，最后会一地鸡毛

拼多多遇到了难得的机遇，年内用户数或将超越阿里巴巴成电商一哥

2020-12-15

8月份立贴，说新能源一年收益至少50%，没想到4个月就完成了。图二是第一次发帖建仓时截图图二是今天截的特斯拉数量价格变动是因为拆股了，1拆4

2020-12-02

$拼多多(PDD)$这玩意哪儿值这么多钱，疯了吗？？空TNND

2020-11-24

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$没有比踏空很难受的了

2020-11-19

估计很多人来看总结，我总结一下，未来一段时间，美股不涨就跌，不排除横盘震荡的可能性

摩根大通最新报告：64张图告诉你美股现状全貌

2020-11-04

$小米集团-W(01810)$卖了小米打新蚂蚁的我，感觉今天格外的冷，淘宝已经卸载，叫爸爸我都不装

2020-11-02

$陆金所(LU)$第一个美股打新赔的股，真好

2020-10-14

$洪恩教育(IH)$中签第一天就下车的，**了吧，给你们说能长，你们不听，吓得我也卖了，c

2020-10-09

$洪恩教育(IH)$400中10，还可以了

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21:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"拼多多遇到了难得的机遇，年内用户数或将超越阿里巴巴成电商一哥","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2094542528","media":"柏铭2018","summary":"由于阿里巴巴创始人马云当下面临的困扰，以及蚂蚁金服上市遇阻，拼多多或许遇上了难得的机遇，年内拼多多的用户数有非常大的机会超越阿里巴巴。然而2019年拼多多祭出了百亿补贴计划，拼多多的活跃买家数继续保持了快速增长势头，竞争1.67亿，用户直逼阿里巴巴，这才让阿里巴巴感受到了压力。至今年三季度拼多多、阿里巴巴的活跃买家数分别为7.313亿、7.57亿，两者的活跃买家数差距已缩短到2570万。","content":"<html><body><article><p>由于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>创始人马云当下面临的困扰，以及蚂蚁金服上市遇阻，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>或许遇上了难得的机遇，年内拼多多的用户数有非常大的机会超越阿里巴巴。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/12970823153/0\"/><p>2015年成立的拼多多在头三年并没得到阿里巴巴和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>的重视，不过拼多多的活跃买家数仅仅用2年多时间就超越了京东成为国内第二大电商，此时各方对于拼多多依然存有疑虑，毕竟此时它依然陷于亏损当中，都担忧它能否继续如此烧钱。</p><p>然而2019年拼多多祭出了百亿补贴计划，拼多多的活跃买家数继续保持了快速增长势头，竞争1.67亿，用户直逼阿里巴巴，这才让阿里巴巴感受到了压力。</p><p>今年初阿里巴巴和苏宁发起双百亿补贴计划，虽然没有明言是对付拼多多，但是业界普遍认为这是它试图应对拼多多的挑战，然而依然未能有效阻止拼多多的崛起，拼多多的净增活跃买家数依然是远超阿里巴巴，双方的活跃买家数在迅速缩短。</p><p>至今年三季度拼多多、阿里巴巴的活跃买家数分别为7.313亿、7.57亿，两者的活跃买家数差距已缩短到2570万。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/12970829716/0\"/><p>在这个关键时刻，马云遇到了当前的事情，蚂蚁金服上市也被按了暂停键，这对于阿里巴巴来说无疑是不利的。</p><p>当前拼多多和阿里巴巴的较量正处于关键时刻，今年三季度的数据显示，拼多多的活跃买家净增数达到4810万，同期阿里巴巴的活跃买家净增数仅为1500万，这意味着四季度只要拼多多保持如此增速，而阿里巴巴由于不利因素影响不太可能加速，那么四季度拼多多的活跃买家数就将超越阿里巴巴，如此就活跃买家数而言拼多多将成为国内第一大电商。</p><p>在活跃买家数方面，拼多多可望在今年内超越阿里巴巴，不过在GMV方面其实拼多多与阿里巴巴的差距依然很大，2019年的数据显示阿里巴巴、拼多多的GMV分别为7.053万亿元人民币、1.0066万亿元，甚至京东的GMV也超过2万亿元，这主要是因为拼多多的人均消费金额与另外两家电商存在很大的差距。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/12970831162/0\"/><p>国内电商格局曾长期形成了阿里巴巴和京东两强的格局，之前曾涌现诸多中小电商，但是它们都未能改变电商两强的格局，甚至不少中小电商在竞争中迅速倒下，只有拼多多成功从中突围，而目前对于拼多多来说无疑是赶超阿里巴巴的良机。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>拼多多遇到了难得的机遇，年内用户数或将超越阿里巴巴成电商一哥</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n拼多多遇到了难得的机遇，年内用户数或将超越阿里巴巴成电商一哥\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-28 21:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020122821194877d7166c&s=b><strong>柏铭2018</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>由于阿里巴巴创始人马云当下面临的困扰，以及蚂蚁金服上市遇阻，拼多多或许遇上了难得的机遇，年内拼多多的用户数有非常大的机会超越阿里巴巴。2015年成立的拼多多在头三年并没得到阿里巴巴和京东的重视，不过拼多多的活跃买家数仅仅用2年多时间就超越了京东成为国内第二大电商，此时各方对于拼多多依然存有疑虑，毕竟此时它依然陷于亏损当中，都担忧它能否继续如此烧钱。然而2019年拼多多祭出了百亿补贴计划，拼多多的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020122821194877d7166c&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ad0916074d4fd8a0d19716314c632dc","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-SW","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020122821194877d7166c&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2094542528","content_text":"由于阿里巴巴创始人马云当下面临的困扰，以及蚂蚁金服上市遇阻，拼多多或许遇上了难得的机遇，年内拼多多的用户数有非常大的机会超越阿里巴巴。2015年成立的拼多多在头三年并没得到阿里巴巴和京东的重视，不过拼多多的活跃买家数仅仅用2年多时间就超越了京东成为国内第二大电商，此时各方对于拼多多依然存有疑虑，毕竟此时它依然陷于亏损当中，都担忧它能否继续如此烧钱。然而2019年拼多多祭出了百亿补贴计划，拼多多的活跃买家数继续保持了快速增长势头，竞争1.67亿，用户直逼阿里巴巴，这才让阿里巴巴感受到了压力。今年初阿里巴巴和苏宁发起双百亿补贴计划，虽然没有明言是对付拼多多，但是业界普遍认为这是它试图应对拼多多的挑战，然而依然未能有效阻止拼多多的崛起，拼多多的净增活跃买家数依然是远超阿里巴巴，双方的活跃买家数在迅速缩短。至今年三季度拼多多、阿里巴巴的活跃买家数分别为7.313亿、7.57亿，两者的活跃买家数差距已缩短到2570万。在这个关键时刻，马云遇到了当前的事情，蚂蚁金服上市也被按了暂停键，这对于阿里巴巴来说无疑是不利的。当前拼多多和阿里巴巴的较量正处于关键时刻，今年三季度的数据显示，拼多多的活跃买家净增数达到4810万，同期阿里巴巴的活跃买家净增数仅为1500万，这意味着四季度只要拼多多保持如此增速，而阿里巴巴由于不利因素影响不太可能加速，那么四季度拼多多的活跃买家数就将超越阿里巴巴，如此就活跃买家数而言拼多多将成为国内第一大电商。在活跃买家数方面，拼多多可望在今年内超越阿里巴巴，不过在GMV方面其实拼多多与阿里巴巴的差距依然很大，2019年的数据显示阿里巴巴、拼多多的GMV分别为7.053万亿元人民币、1.0066万亿元，甚至京东的GMV也超过2万亿元，这主要是因为拼多多的人均消费金额与另外两家电商存在很大的差距。国内电商格局曾长期形成了阿里巴巴和京东两强的格局，之前曾涌现诸多中小电商，但是它们都未能改变电商两强的格局，甚至不少中小电商在竞争中迅速倒下，只有拼多多成功从中突围，而目前对于拼多多来说无疑是赶超阿里巴巴的良机。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":394639810,"gmtCreate":1608016042830,"gmtModify":1703850615487,"author":{"id":"3494476961005761","authorId":"3494476961005761","name":"股小年","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/325000dea22a193be7178a8bfeac446e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"8月份立贴，说新能源一年收益至少50%，没想到4个月就完成了。图二是第一次发帖建仓时截图图二是今天截的特斯拉数量价格变动是因为拆股了，1拆4","listText":"8月份立贴，说新能源一年收益至少50%，没想到4个月就完成了。图二是第一次发帖建仓时截图图二是今天截的特斯拉数量价格变动是因为拆股了，1拆4","text":"8月份立贴，说新能源一年收益至少50%，没想到4个月就完成了。图二是第一次发帖建仓时截图图二是今天截的特斯拉数量价格变动是因为拆股了，1拆4","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aa8fc90a6427a7a3659f3293e7665b2","width":"1080","height":"3086"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/014dbf44ddbfc973f4746bc9764090a5","width":"1080","height":"2280"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3140aa196016b9b08c49cbc0266f423","width":"1080","height":"2280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394639810","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398552258,"gmtCreate":1606922259374,"gmtModify":1703845448614,"author":{"id":"3494476961005761","authorId":"3494476961005761","name":"股小年","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/325000dea22a193be7178a8bfeac446e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>这玩意哪儿值这么多钱，疯了吗？？空TNND","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$这玩意哪儿值这么多钱，疯了吗？？空TNND","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398552258","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3434660001945917","authorId":"3434660001945917","name":"west","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"劝你不要空pdd，我从30多开始劝人了。应该能救几个是几个","text":"劝你不要空pdd，我从30多开始劝人了。应该能救几个是几个","html":"劝你不要空pdd，我从30多开始劝人了。应该能救几个是几个"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":399463586,"gmtCreate":1606176163545,"gmtModify":1703841399330,"author":{"id":"3494476961005761","authorId":"3494476961005761","name":"股小年","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/325000dea22a193be7178a8bfeac446e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>没有比踏空很难受的了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>没有比踏空很难受的了","text":"$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$没有比踏空很难受的了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399463586","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390251012,"gmtCreate":1605800677136,"gmtModify":1703839766554,"author":{"id":"3494476961005761","authorId":"3494476961005761","name":"股小年","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/325000dea22a193be7178a8bfeac446e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"估计很多人来看总结，我总结一下，未来一段时间，美股不涨就跌，不排除横盘震荡的可能性","listText":"估计很多人来看总结，我总结一下，未来一段时间，美股不涨就跌，不排除横盘震荡的可能性","text":"估计很多人来看总结，我总结一下，未来一段时间，美股不涨就跌，不排除横盘震荡的可能性","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390251012","repostId":"1199570467","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199570467","pubTimestamp":1605784535,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199570467?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-19 19:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"摩根大通最新报告：64张图告诉你美股现状全貌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199570467","media":"杰晶维基","summary":"导读：JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告，是我们必读，并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中，清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置，以及当下","content":"<p>导读：JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告，是我们必读，并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中，清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置，以及当下市场的主要矛盾。以下是我们对于3季度JP Morgan Guide To Markets的全文翻译，希望给大家带来帮助。</p>\n<p>文章来源&nbsp;|&nbsp;JPM&nbsp;Guide To The Markets&nbsp;3Q2020</p>\n<p><b>2020年第三季度&nbsp;市场指南</b></p>\n<p><b>一、股票市场</b></p>\n<p>拐点处的S&amp;P 500：S&amp;P 500从2009年3月9日的低点到2020年2月19的高点涨了401%，然后至今(2020年6月30日)跌了8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18e0ffe1c0316a38c8113324472ffb3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\"></p>\n<p>2020年6月30日标普500估值为21.72X，过去25年平均估值水平为16.39X</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e11e55741b65a5d78baa25c0c899a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\"></p>\n<p>P/E和股票回报率</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110b1789625eae158cc2bf20798185f3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"722\"></p>\n<p>2020H1标普500指数各个行业收益同比均有所下滑，其中能源市场下滑幅度最大</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537452eb0bd669c8f539ef441a83d258\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"721\"></p>\n<p>EPS增长的来源：2020Q1 S&amp;P 500 EPS 年化增速为-48.7%，其中三个贡献因素中利润率年化增长为47.3%，是EPS负增长的主要原因</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7919c34ea590e51d964001dd7b18921\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"712\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd3b5092101c18b05430fa996692b6b\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p>\n<p>价值 VS 增长：2020H1价值相对于增长收益率为0.97，价值指数宏有56.1%的个股贝塔大于1</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2f57d47f51477c3e49fbab285e3ff6e\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>不同风格的收益和估值：就季度来看，小市值高增长的类型收益最好，达到30.6%；按年度来看，大市值高增长的类型表现最好，达到9.8%，中市值高增长次之，为4.2%，其他类型的均为负增长</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a92dd309dda7f7b8d8df70084da84456\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"729\"></p>\n<p>不同板块的收益和估值：就季度来看，消费行业板块最好，达到32.9%；按年度来看，科技板块表现最好，达到15%，消费板块次之，为7.2%，其他类型的均为负增长</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a01ead2a01d33a4e1a034bc49ab941\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"729\"></p>\n<p>因子表现：2005至2019年间动量因子的收益最好，达到11%，低波动因子次之，为10.2%，小市值因子收益最低，为7.9%，且波动率最大</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29327a097af15b1770aa626bd3c12dde\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"739\"></p>\n<p>年化收益以及年内回调</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37bc5b62ed92fb215203dacf6bde9324\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"716\"></p>\n<p>市场波动率</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bae8b1a5a5eeb6c5fcd3b6308e81e29f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"718\"></p>\n<p>熊市以及随后的牛市的概率</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5fe5085decf2bc580c48c3ace506e2\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p>\n<p>1990年以来的股票市场</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56fe0c2c007b848ad21f722bdc8a0cef\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"723\"></p>\n<p><b>二、宏观经济市场</b></p>\n<p>美国过去经济衰退情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69b03d7344437383b250399dd3daed75\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"718\"></p>\n<p>经济增长以及GDP的构成：2020Q1美国名义GDP中的67.7%是消费，17.9%是政府支出，12.9%是排除房地产外的投资，4.0%是房地产</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f8f6de1c9e775f4e447be266ac8c83c\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"715\"></p>\n<p>COVID-19：美国确诊以及死亡人数</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe3abac28505c317b841989aba61441\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"715\"></p>\n<p>高频经济数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b499f833a7fc507a2acf22536f77ce\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>消费金融：美国消费者资产中27%是房产，21%退休金，负债中66%是房贷</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46864dd1b0ffda4daebef00c88dfedd8\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"721\"></p>\n<p>美国经济中的收入不平等</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c8953d94bbf9699ec7c8f2585483e0\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"721\"></p>\n<p>美国经济的长期驱动因素</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1452bc9690088e93fcc24cce8ed0a1cd\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>联邦财政</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b9ac282acb1938128b122c4ae350126\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"715\"></p>\n<p>就业和工资</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f799be89847ceece12cdd7e8d3f63f0f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"714\"></p>\n<p>商业情绪和经济周期</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5638d3cf6e5ae0565c687956403e942\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"716\"></p>\n<p>不同教育程度人群的就业和收入</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d458389393acbdfd36154bf87f55d72\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"716\"></p>\n<p>通货膨胀</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3a6df4d4c52ebe2ea87446a7fe5894\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"714\"></p>\n<p>美元驱动因素</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4291d052609e7a56fd89cdf14b786\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"718\"></p>\n<p>原油市场</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611738157dd48a34a8e2aa1ac371d972\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>联邦政策利率：FOMC 6月纪要显示2020年美国GDP将萎缩6.5%，Q4失业率将达到9.3%，个人消费支出平减指数PCE为0.8%；长期展望美国GDP增速为1.8%，失业率为4.1%，PCEWEI 2.0%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c3fe73620490f799abce304edd13ea\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"712\"></p>\n<p>美联储的资产负债表</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2af53b31bbd2fb1ad2f165671fd99c02\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"723\"></p>\n<p>利率和通货膨胀率</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3729517c089d5da26a53c848470917\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"709\"></p>\n<p><b>三、固定收益市场动态</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffcebd15c6eefc404875cf47357f58a2\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>收益率曲线</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3bb5950dcdb305cc7297025ce997d45\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"721\"></p>\n<p>固定收益率及其与股票市场的关系</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513ddb847ef2cf3c2bcd2e30f3ab1c66\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"723\"></p>\n<p>高收益债券：平均30年高收益债券违约率为3.56%，而截止2020年6月30日的高收益债券违约率为4.85%；</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f25ad52cd22baea2f5715a902886ae3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"712\"></p>\n<p>公司债：政府部门的债券是2019第四季度的103.9%，处于历史高位，家庭部门的债券是2019第四季度的75.4%，非金融公司债是2019第四季度的74.9%；Baa投资级公司债券在2020年二季度末占比为48.6%，环比有所下降</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/041a2e9deb4a46b72308beb86d76d638\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>负收益债务：截止2020年5月31日，日本政府持有的负收益政府债务为5.35万亿美元，欧洲政府持有的负收益政府债务为5.49万亿美元，全球负收益公司债务为1.27万亿美元</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45315747bbe42ceb007d64ebe88fc74f\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"724\"></p>\n<p>债券市场的流动性：2020年第一季度主要债券承销商债券库存占美国公司债整体的比例为0.3%，环比有所提升</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8049bd9b6540852ee8b1ff0db1559e60\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p>\n<p>全球货币政策：预测2021年发达国家主要央行债券购买量将继续大幅增加，其中美联储债券购买量仍为最多，较2020年提升明显</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd569de80d6dc612825fe1e2f8272c8\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"721\"></p>\n<p>全球固定收益市场：截止2019年末，美国债券量为41万亿美元，其他发达国家除美国外债券量为47万亿美元，新兴市场债券量为26万亿美元</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25194b438ce9d426e77a832650176ad8\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"722\"></p>\n<p>固定收益细分市场收益对比：2005-2019年新兴美元债的平均收益率最高，为年化7.3%，但是波动率也最高，为10.6%，高收益债券次之，ABS的收益率最低</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45d1ea510a225f5830d7a25abc81049\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"731\"></p>\n<p>全球股票市场：全球市场15年以来美国(以标普500为代表)股票市场平均收益率最高，为9.0%，新兴市场收益率次之，为7.8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eacb07cc66107de528d334016aa7219\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"723\"></p>\n<p>全球股票收益的来源：2005-2019年美国权益市场收益率贡献最大的因素为收益增长，其次为分红，估值倍数贡献最小；新兴市场和欧洲除英国以外的市场中货币为负贡献</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4247d7c94c33c6853bad3f2ebceb960d\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p>\n<p>货币和国际权益收益：美元走强对国际权益市场回报不利，而美元走弱有利于国际权益市场；2019年对于MSCI全球除美国指数收益来说美元对其影响为负10.8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e6774f10d1bfe39f0e8e33696b27e8f\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p>\n<p>拐点处的美国和国际权益市场：2009年至2020年6月30日标普500指数价格收益为401%，随后回调幅度为8%，而ACWI除美国权益市场指数同期收益为143%，随后回调幅度为19%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7095c48d9d78a4f1c01fe3cc2a4327c7\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"724\"></p>\n<p>国际股票收益和估值：2020年全球上市公司收益均有所下滑；估值角度来看目前美国股票市场PE最高，为21.77X</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6454026010a23666f23ab52abc0cddeb\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p>\n<p>全球经济增长情况：2020年5月服务业PMI指数为35.2，制造业指数为42.4%，均处于荣枯线一下，但是环比都有明显回升；2020年第一季度全球实际GDP增速为-1.7%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee3338968fa0ca9e427723452fdc52c3\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>COVID-19：全球确诊病例和死亡人数</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6351ccfc46e8d2a4c24f64d30f88470\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"724\"></p>\n<p>全球经济高频活动指数：发达国家从3月低的底部均有所回升，但是认为在0以下；发展中国家中日本、中国台湾和俄罗斯恢复较快</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89f78a253ebbba4020142b5f9ce938d\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"723\"></p>\n<p>服务业动量：2020年6月主要发达国家服务业PMI指数均有所回升，其中法国达到50.3</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079b0e943a0343cb8abda7840ba8b7c4\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"715\"></p>\n<p>全球通货膨胀率：全球主流大部分国家通货膨胀率5月相较于4月均有所下滑</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b2d843b03e94187b223901aa7d6e5b\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"716\"></p>\n<p>新冠肺炎的财政支持力度：意大利、德国、日本面对新冠肺炎财政支持力度最大，其中意大利财政支出达到GDP的34%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0d15069c81607e61f0da3726b0b4d8\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>中国经济情况：中国2020年第一季度经济增速为-6.8%，其中投资为-1.5%，消费为-4.4%，净出口为-1.0%；2020年预计财政赤字占GDP达14%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9150d30e11c4c4cb9efbcb9e4167db\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"717\"></p>\n<p>新兴市场：2020年预期新兴市场GDP的经济增速仍为正，但发达国家预计为负，两者之差环比有所提升</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48d84477b90e43ce2063dd7fa24a534\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"723\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0400abd09ad05bbd17dabfa6e3a6d05f\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"731\"></p>\n<p>对冲基金：预计2020年宏观对冲基金相对于对冲基金研究指数表现将会回落</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b2d590c388dd2019c33254beede1a5\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p>\n<p>私募股权市场：整体来看私募股权市场收益率均高于MSCI ACWI全球二级市场股票收益；2019年美国私募股权基金完成募集但还未投出的资金在1.2万亿美元左右</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482a12baff7d422cd3cc683781794138\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"718\"></p>\n<p>另类投资类别中Alerian MLP ETF年化收益最高为15.2%，而美国10年期国债收益仅为0.7%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/109a4978b330f77f8e99eaa03000af02\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"733\"></p>\n<p>全球大宗商品：2020年6月30日金价为1801美元一盎司，与调整通货膨胀率的价格较为一致，趋势上看上升较为明显</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7e0e2b411db3ef5c04e690946d7285\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>全球多种类资产配置组合(25%标普500指数, 10% 罗素2000指数, 15% MSCI EAFE指数, 5% MSCI EME, 25%彭博巴克莱美国综合指数, 5%彭博巴克莱1-3月期限国债指数, 5%彭博巴克莱高收益债券指数, 5%彭博巴克莱商品指数以及5% NAREIT Equity REIT 指数)2019年收益率为19.5%，2005-2019年化收益率为6.6%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a6c12de58ceacf8ffdf02ec2409b96\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"735\"></p>\n<p>基金流入情况：从2007年累计共同基金和ETF有26110亿美元流入债券市场，2020年有所下滑；有14670亿美元流入股票市场，6020亿美元流入其他大类资产</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63401695f4ac6d02dc3419af9728b772\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"721\"></p>\n<p>过去20年股票市场年化平均收益为11.3%，债券年化收益率为5.9%，50/50组合收益为8.9%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f95545786d706ca43310fbd15eae7bbe\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"717\"></p>\n<p>另类资产类别中过去20年(1999-2019) REITs的年化收益率最高，为11.6%，贵金属金次之，为8.6%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f6e4a52ed3ed61103cb95a7723d462\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"721\"></p>\n<p>截止第二季度末，有37%的共和党中将国民经济状况评为优秀或良好，只有11%的民主党人将国民经济状况评为优秀或良好</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d1d00672e5cfbc938b689011459177\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p>\n<p>2020年10万美元存款账户能够获得280美元的收益，但是需要1236美元去支付通货膨胀带来的负收益，2046美元去消除教育通胀的负收益，4904美元去消除医疗保障的负收益</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beedd7f7cb4688ee182e03940d83713a\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"725\"></p>","source":"lsy1595209191943","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根大通最新报告：64张图告诉你美股现状全貌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根大通最新报告：64张图告诉你美股现状全貌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-19 19:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s0qXpukohr12_gV2bRFqag><strong>杰晶维基</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>导读：JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告，是我们必读，并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中，清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置，以及当下市场的主要矛盾。以下是我们对于3季度JP Morgan Guide To Markets的全文翻译，希望给大家带来帮助。\n文章来源 | JPM Guide To The Markets 3Q2020\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s0qXpukohr12_gV2bRFqag\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e2f636e805bfca87903ab08fc842298","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s0qXpukohr12_gV2bRFqag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199570467","content_text":"导读：JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告，是我们必读，并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中，清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置，以及当下市场的主要矛盾。以下是我们对于3季度JP Morgan Guide To Markets的全文翻译，希望给大家带来帮助。\n文章来源 | JPM Guide To The Markets 3Q2020\n2020年第三季度 市场指南\n一、股票市场\n拐点处的S&P 500：S&P 500从2009年3月9日的低点到2020年2月19的高点涨了401%，然后至今(2020年6月30日)跌了8%\n\n2020年6月30日标普500估值为21.72X，过去25年平均估值水平为16.39X\n\nP/E和股票回报率\n\n2020H1标普500指数各个行业收益同比均有所下滑，其中能源市场下滑幅度最大\n\nEPS增长的来源：2020Q1 S&P 500 EPS 年化增速为-48.7%，其中三个贡献因素中利润率年化增长为47.3%，是EPS负增长的主要原因\n\n价值 VS 增长：2020H1价值相对于增长收益率为0.97，价值指数宏有56.1%的个股贝塔大于1\n\n不同风格的收益和估值：就季度来看，小市值高增长的类型收益最好，达到30.6%；按年度来看，大市值高增长的类型表现最好，达到9.8%，中市值高增长次之，为4.2%，其他类型的均为负增长\n\n不同板块的收益和估值：就季度来看，消费行业板块最好，达到32.9%；按年度来看，科技板块表现最好，达到15%，消费板块次之，为7.2%，其他类型的均为负增长\n\n因子表现：2005至2019年间动量因子的收益最好，达到11%，低波动因子次之，为10.2%，小市值因子收益最低，为7.9%，且波动率最大\n\n年化收益以及年内回调\n\n市场波动率\n\n熊市以及随后的牛市的概率\n\n1990年以来的股票市场\n\n二、宏观经济市场\n美国过去经济衰退情况\n\n经济增长以及GDP的构成：2020Q1美国名义GDP中的67.7%是消费，17.9%是政府支出，12.9%是排除房地产外的投资，4.0%是房地产\n\nCOVID-19：美国确诊以及死亡人数\n\n高频经济数据\n\n消费金融：美国消费者资产中27%是房产，21%退休金，负债中66%是房贷\n\n美国经济中的收入不平等\n\n美国经济的长期驱动因素\n\n联邦财政\n\n就业和工资\n\n商业情绪和经济周期\n\n不同教育程度人群的就业和收入\n\n通货膨胀\n\n美元驱动因素\n\n原油市场\n\n联邦政策利率：FOMC 6月纪要显示2020年美国GDP将萎缩6.5%，Q4失业率将达到9.3%，个人消费支出平减指数PCE为0.8%；长期展望美国GDP增速为1.8%，失业率为4.1%，PCEWEI 2.0%\n\n美联储的资产负债表\n\n利率和通货膨胀率\n\n三、固定收益市场动态\n\n收益率曲线\n\n固定收益率及其与股票市场的关系\n\n高收益债券：平均30年高收益债券违约率为3.56%，而截止2020年6月30日的高收益债券违约率为4.85%；\n\n公司债：政府部门的债券是2019第四季度的103.9%，处于历史高位，家庭部门的债券是2019第四季度的75.4%，非金融公司债是2019第四季度的74.9%；Baa投资级公司债券在2020年二季度末占比为48.6%，环比有所下降\n\n负收益债务：截止2020年5月31日，日本政府持有的负收益政府债务为5.35万亿美元，欧洲政府持有的负收益政府债务为5.49万亿美元，全球负收益公司债务为1.27万亿美元\n\n债券市场的流动性：2020年第一季度主要债券承销商债券库存占美国公司债整体的比例为0.3%，环比有所提升\n\n全球货币政策：预测2021年发达国家主要央行债券购买量将继续大幅增加，其中美联储债券购买量仍为最多，较2020年提升明显\n\n全球固定收益市场：截止2019年末，美国债券量为41万亿美元，其他发达国家除美国外债券量为47万亿美元，新兴市场债券量为26万亿美元\n\n固定收益细分市场收益对比：2005-2019年新兴美元债的平均收益率最高，为年化7.3%，但是波动率也最高，为10.6%，高收益债券次之，ABS的收益率最低\n\n全球股票市场：全球市场15年以来美国(以标普500为代表)股票市场平均收益率最高，为9.0%，新兴市场收益率次之，为7.8%\n\n全球股票收益的来源：2005-2019年美国权益市场收益率贡献最大的因素为收益增长，其次为分红，估值倍数贡献最小；新兴市场和欧洲除英国以外的市场中货币为负贡献\n\n货币和国际权益收益：美元走强对国际权益市场回报不利，而美元走弱有利于国际权益市场；2019年对于MSCI全球除美国指数收益来说美元对其影响为负10.8%\n\n拐点处的美国和国际权益市场：2009年至2020年6月30日标普500指数价格收益为401%，随后回调幅度为8%，而ACWI除美国权益市场指数同期收益为143%，随后回调幅度为19%\n\n国际股票收益和估值：2020年全球上市公司收益均有所下滑；估值角度来看目前美国股票市场PE最高，为21.77X\n\n全球经济增长情况：2020年5月服务业PMI指数为35.2，制造业指数为42.4%，均处于荣枯线一下，但是环比都有明显回升；2020年第一季度全球实际GDP增速为-1.7%\n\nCOVID-19：全球确诊病例和死亡人数\n\n全球经济高频活动指数：发达国家从3月低的底部均有所回升，但是认为在0以下；发展中国家中日本、中国台湾和俄罗斯恢复较快\n\n服务业动量：2020年6月主要发达国家服务业PMI指数均有所回升，其中法国达到50.3\n\n全球通货膨胀率：全球主流大部分国家通货膨胀率5月相较于4月均有所下滑\n\n新冠肺炎的财政支持力度：意大利、德国、日本面对新冠肺炎财政支持力度最大，其中意大利财政支出达到GDP的34%\n\n中国经济情况：中国2020年第一季度经济增速为-6.8%，其中投资为-1.5%，消费为-4.4%，净出口为-1.0%；2020年预计财政赤字占GDP达14%\n\n新兴市场：2020年预期新兴市场GDP的经济增速仍为正，但发达国家预计为负，两者之差环比有所提升\n\n对冲基金：预计2020年宏观对冲基金相对于对冲基金研究指数表现将会回落\n\n私募股权市场：整体来看私募股权市场收益率均高于MSCI ACWI全球二级市场股票收益；2019年美国私募股权基金完成募集但还未投出的资金在1.2万亿美元左右\n\n另类投资类别中Alerian MLP ETF年化收益最高为15.2%，而美国10年期国债收益仅为0.7%\n\n全球大宗商品：2020年6月30日金价为1801美元一盎司，与调整通货膨胀率的价格较为一致，趋势上看上升较为明显\n\n全球多种类资产配置组合(25%标普500指数, 10% 罗素2000指数, 15% MSCI EAFE指数, 5% MSCI EME, 25%彭博巴克莱美国综合指数, 5%彭博巴克莱1-3月期限国债指数, 5%彭博巴克莱高收益债券指数, 5%彭博巴克莱商品指数以及5% NAREIT Equity REIT 指数)2019年收益率为19.5%，2005-2019年化收益率为6.6%\n\n基金流入情况：从2007年累计共同基金和ETF有26110亿美元流入债券市场，2020年有所下滑；有14670亿美元流入股票市场，6020亿美元流入其他大类资产\n\n过去20年股票市场年化平均收益为11.3%，债券年化收益率为5.9%，50/50组合收益为8.9%\n\n另类资产类别中过去20年(1999-2019) 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Ltd.(PALAF)$这个公司竟然没人发帖子，我看到3","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334176886","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390251012,"gmtCreate":1605800677136,"gmtModify":1703839766554,"author":{"id":"3494476961005761","authorId":"3494476961005761","name":"股小年","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/325000dea22a193be7178a8bfeac446e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"估计很多人来看总结，我总结一下，未来一段时间，美股不涨就跌，不排除横盘震荡的可能性","listText":"估计很多人来看总结，我总结一下，未来一段时间，美股不涨就跌，不排除横盘震荡的可能性","text":"估计很多人来看总结，我总结一下，未来一段时间，美股不涨就跌，不排除横盘震荡的可能性","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390251012","repostId":"1199570467","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199570467","pubTimestamp":1605784535,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199570467?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-19 19:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"摩根大通最新报告：64张图告诉你美股现状全貌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199570467","media":"杰晶维基","summary":"导读：JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告，是我们必读，并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中，清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置，以及当下","content":"<p>导读：JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告，是我们必读，并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中，清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置，以及当下市场的主要矛盾。以下是我们对于3季度JP Morgan Guide To Markets的全文翻译，希望给大家带来帮助。</p>\n<p>文章来源&nbsp;|&nbsp;JPM&nbsp;Guide To The Markets&nbsp;3Q2020</p>\n<p><b>2020年第三季度&nbsp;市场指南</b></p>\n<p><b>一、股票市场</b></p>\n<p>拐点处的S&amp;P 500：S&amp;P 500从2009年3月9日的低点到2020年2月19的高点涨了401%，然后至今(2020年6月30日)跌了8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18e0ffe1c0316a38c8113324472ffb3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\"></p>\n<p>2020年6月30日标普500估值为21.72X，过去25年平均估值水平为16.39X</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e11e55741b65a5d78baa25c0c899a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\"></p>\n<p>P/E和股票回报率</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110b1789625eae158cc2bf20798185f3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"722\"></p>\n<p>2020H1标普500指数各个行业收益同比均有所下滑，其中能源市场下滑幅度最大</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537452eb0bd669c8f539ef441a83d258\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"721\"></p>\n<p>EPS增长的来源：2020Q1 S&amp;P 500 EPS 年化增速为-48.7%，其中三个贡献因素中利润率年化增长为47.3%，是EPS负增长的主要原因</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7919c34ea590e51d964001dd7b18921\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"712\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd3b5092101c18b05430fa996692b6b\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p>\n<p>价值 VS 增长：2020H1价值相对于增长收益率为0.97，价值指数宏有56.1%的个股贝塔大于1</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2f57d47f51477c3e49fbab285e3ff6e\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>不同风格的收益和估值：就季度来看，小市值高增长的类型收益最好，达到30.6%；按年度来看，大市值高增长的类型表现最好，达到9.8%，中市值高增长次之，为4.2%，其他类型的均为负增长</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a92dd309dda7f7b8d8df70084da84456\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"729\"></p>\n<p>不同板块的收益和估值：就季度来看，消费行业板块最好，达到32.9%；按年度来看，科技板块表现最好，达到15%，消费板块次之，为7.2%，其他类型的均为负增长</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a01ead2a01d33a4e1a034bc49ab941\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"729\"></p>\n<p>因子表现：2005至2019年间动量因子的收益最好，达到11%，低波动因子次之，为10.2%，小市值因子收益最低，为7.9%，且波动率最大</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29327a097af15b1770aa626bd3c12dde\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"739\"></p>\n<p>年化收益以及年内回调</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37bc5b62ed92fb215203dacf6bde9324\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"716\"></p>\n<p>市场波动率</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bae8b1a5a5eeb6c5fcd3b6308e81e29f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"718\"></p>\n<p>熊市以及随后的牛市的概率</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5fe5085decf2bc580c48c3ace506e2\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p>\n<p>1990年以来的股票市场</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56fe0c2c007b848ad21f722bdc8a0cef\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"723\"></p>\n<p><b>二、宏观经济市场</b></p>\n<p>美国过去经济衰退情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69b03d7344437383b250399dd3daed75\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"718\"></p>\n<p>经济增长以及GDP的构成：2020Q1美国名义GDP中的67.7%是消费，17.9%是政府支出，12.9%是排除房地产外的投资，4.0%是房地产</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f8f6de1c9e775f4e447be266ac8c83c\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"715\"></p>\n<p>COVID-19：美国确诊以及死亡人数</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe3abac28505c317b841989aba61441\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"715\"></p>\n<p>高频经济数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b499f833a7fc507a2acf22536f77ce\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>消费金融：美国消费者资产中27%是房产，21%退休金，负债中66%是房贷</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46864dd1b0ffda4daebef00c88dfedd8\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"721\"></p>\n<p>美国经济中的收入不平等</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c8953d94bbf9699ec7c8f2585483e0\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"721\"></p>\n<p>美国经济的长期驱动因素</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1452bc9690088e93fcc24cce8ed0a1cd\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>联邦财政</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b9ac282acb1938128b122c4ae350126\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"715\"></p>\n<p>就业和工资</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f799be89847ceece12cdd7e8d3f63f0f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"714\"></p>\n<p>商业情绪和经济周期</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5638d3cf6e5ae0565c687956403e942\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"716\"></p>\n<p>不同教育程度人群的就业和收入</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d458389393acbdfd36154bf87f55d72\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"716\"></p>\n<p>通货膨胀</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3a6df4d4c52ebe2ea87446a7fe5894\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"714\"></p>\n<p>美元驱动因素</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4291d052609e7a56fd89cdf14b786\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"718\"></p>\n<p>原油市场</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611738157dd48a34a8e2aa1ac371d972\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>联邦政策利率：FOMC 6月纪要显示2020年美国GDP将萎缩6.5%，Q4失业率将达到9.3%，个人消费支出平减指数PCE为0.8%；长期展望美国GDP增速为1.8%，失业率为4.1%，PCEWEI 2.0%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c3fe73620490f799abce304edd13ea\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"712\"></p>\n<p>美联储的资产负债表</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2af53b31bbd2fb1ad2f165671fd99c02\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"723\"></p>\n<p>利率和通货膨胀率</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3729517c089d5da26a53c848470917\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"709\"></p>\n<p><b>三、固定收益市场动态</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffcebd15c6eefc404875cf47357f58a2\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>收益率曲线</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3bb5950dcdb305cc7297025ce997d45\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"721\"></p>\n<p>固定收益率及其与股票市场的关系</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513ddb847ef2cf3c2bcd2e30f3ab1c66\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"723\"></p>\n<p>高收益债券：平均30年高收益债券违约率为3.56%，而截止2020年6月30日的高收益债券违约率为4.85%；</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f25ad52cd22baea2f5715a902886ae3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"712\"></p>\n<p>公司债：政府部门的债券是2019第四季度的103.9%，处于历史高位，家庭部门的债券是2019第四季度的75.4%，非金融公司债是2019第四季度的74.9%；Baa投资级公司债券在2020年二季度末占比为48.6%，环比有所下降</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/041a2e9deb4a46b72308beb86d76d638\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>负收益债务：截止2020年5月31日，日本政府持有的负收益政府债务为5.35万亿美元，欧洲政府持有的负收益政府债务为5.49万亿美元，全球负收益公司债务为1.27万亿美元</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45315747bbe42ceb007d64ebe88fc74f\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"724\"></p>\n<p>债券市场的流动性：2020年第一季度主要债券承销商债券库存占美国公司债整体的比例为0.3%，环比有所提升</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8049bd9b6540852ee8b1ff0db1559e60\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p>\n<p>全球货币政策：预测2021年发达国家主要央行债券购买量将继续大幅增加，其中美联储债券购买量仍为最多，较2020年提升明显</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd569de80d6dc612825fe1e2f8272c8\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"721\"></p>\n<p>全球固定收益市场：截止2019年末，美国债券量为41万亿美元，其他发达国家除美国外债券量为47万亿美元，新兴市场债券量为26万亿美元</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25194b438ce9d426e77a832650176ad8\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"722\"></p>\n<p>固定收益细分市场收益对比：2005-2019年新兴美元债的平均收益率最高，为年化7.3%，但是波动率也最高，为10.6%，高收益债券次之，ABS的收益率最低</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45d1ea510a225f5830d7a25abc81049\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"731\"></p>\n<p>全球股票市场：全球市场15年以来美国(以标普500为代表)股票市场平均收益率最高，为9.0%，新兴市场收益率次之，为7.8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eacb07cc66107de528d334016aa7219\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"723\"></p>\n<p>全球股票收益的来源：2005-2019年美国权益市场收益率贡献最大的因素为收益增长，其次为分红，估值倍数贡献最小；新兴市场和欧洲除英国以外的市场中货币为负贡献</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4247d7c94c33c6853bad3f2ebceb960d\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p>\n<p>货币和国际权益收益：美元走强对国际权益市场回报不利，而美元走弱有利于国际权益市场；2019年对于MSCI全球除美国指数收益来说美元对其影响为负10.8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e6774f10d1bfe39f0e8e33696b27e8f\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p>\n<p>拐点处的美国和国际权益市场：2009年至2020年6月30日标普500指数价格收益为401%，随后回调幅度为8%，而ACWI除美国权益市场指数同期收益为143%，随后回调幅度为19%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7095c48d9d78a4f1c01fe3cc2a4327c7\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"724\"></p>\n<p>国际股票收益和估值：2020年全球上市公司收益均有所下滑；估值角度来看目前美国股票市场PE最高，为21.77X</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6454026010a23666f23ab52abc0cddeb\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p>\n<p>全球经济增长情况：2020年5月服务业PMI指数为35.2，制造业指数为42.4%，均处于荣枯线一下，但是环比都有明显回升；2020年第一季度全球实际GDP增速为-1.7%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee3338968fa0ca9e427723452fdc52c3\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>COVID-19：全球确诊病例和死亡人数</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6351ccfc46e8d2a4c24f64d30f88470\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"724\"></p>\n<p>全球经济高频活动指数：发达国家从3月低的底部均有所回升，但是认为在0以下；发展中国家中日本、中国台湾和俄罗斯恢复较快</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89f78a253ebbba4020142b5f9ce938d\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"723\"></p>\n<p>服务业动量：2020年6月主要发达国家服务业PMI指数均有所回升，其中法国达到50.3</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079b0e943a0343cb8abda7840ba8b7c4\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"715\"></p>\n<p>全球通货膨胀率：全球主流大部分国家通货膨胀率5月相较于4月均有所下滑</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b2d843b03e94187b223901aa7d6e5b\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"716\"></p>\n<p>新冠肺炎的财政支持力度：意大利、德国、日本面对新冠肺炎财政支持力度最大，其中意大利财政支出达到GDP的34%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0d15069c81607e61f0da3726b0b4d8\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>中国经济情况：中国2020年第一季度经济增速为-6.8%，其中投资为-1.5%，消费为-4.4%，净出口为-1.0%；2020年预计财政赤字占GDP达14%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9150d30e11c4c4cb9efbcb9e4167db\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"717\"></p>\n<p>新兴市场：2020年预期新兴市场GDP的经济增速仍为正，但发达国家预计为负，两者之差环比有所提升</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48d84477b90e43ce2063dd7fa24a534\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"723\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0400abd09ad05bbd17dabfa6e3a6d05f\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"731\"></p>\n<p>对冲基金：预计2020年宏观对冲基金相对于对冲基金研究指数表现将会回落</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b2d590c388dd2019c33254beede1a5\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p>\n<p>私募股权市场：整体来看私募股权市场收益率均高于MSCI ACWI全球二级市场股票收益；2019年美国私募股权基金完成募集但还未投出的资金在1.2万亿美元左右</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482a12baff7d422cd3cc683781794138\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"718\"></p>\n<p>另类投资类别中Alerian MLP ETF年化收益最高为15.2%，而美国10年期国债收益仅为0.7%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/109a4978b330f77f8e99eaa03000af02\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"733\"></p>\n<p>全球大宗商品：2020年6月30日金价为1801美元一盎司，与调整通货膨胀率的价格较为一致，趋势上看上升较为明显</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7e0e2b411db3ef5c04e690946d7285\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>全球多种类资产配置组合(25%标普500指数, 10% 罗素2000指数, 15% MSCI EAFE指数, 5% MSCI EME, 25%彭博巴克莱美国综合指数, 5%彭博巴克莱1-3月期限国债指数, 5%彭博巴克莱高收益债券指数, 5%彭博巴克莱商品指数以及5% NAREIT Equity REIT 指数)2019年收益率为19.5%，2005-2019年化收益率为6.6%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a6c12de58ceacf8ffdf02ec2409b96\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"735\"></p>\n<p>基金流入情况：从2007年累计共同基金和ETF有26110亿美元流入债券市场，2020年有所下滑；有14670亿美元流入股票市场，6020亿美元流入其他大类资产</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63401695f4ac6d02dc3419af9728b772\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"721\"></p>\n<p>过去20年股票市场年化平均收益为11.3%，债券年化收益率为5.9%，50/50组合收益为8.9%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f95545786d706ca43310fbd15eae7bbe\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"717\"></p>\n<p>另类资产类别中过去20年(1999-2019) REITs的年化收益率最高，为11.6%，贵金属金次之，为8.6%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f6e4a52ed3ed61103cb95a7723d462\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"721\"></p>\n<p>截止第二季度末，有37%的共和党中将国民经济状况评为优秀或良好，只有11%的民主党人将国民经济状况评为优秀或良好</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d1d00672e5cfbc938b689011459177\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p>\n<p>2020年10万美元存款账户能够获得280美元的收益，但是需要1236美元去支付通货膨胀带来的负收益，2046美元去消除教育通胀的负收益，4904美元去消除医疗保障的负收益</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beedd7f7cb4688ee182e03940d83713a\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"725\"></p>","source":"lsy1595209191943","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根大通最新报告：64张图告诉你美股现状全貌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根大通最新报告：64张图告诉你美股现状全貌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-19 19:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s0qXpukohr12_gV2bRFqag><strong>杰晶维基</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>导读：JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告，是我们必读，并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中，清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置，以及当下市场的主要矛盾。以下是我们对于3季度JP Morgan Guide To Markets的全文翻译，希望给大家带来帮助。\n文章来源 | JPM Guide To The Markets 3Q2020\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s0qXpukohr12_gV2bRFqag\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e2f636e805bfca87903ab08fc842298","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s0qXpukohr12_gV2bRFqag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199570467","content_text":"导读：JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告，是我们必读，并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中，清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置，以及当下市场的主要矛盾。以下是我们对于3季度JP Morgan Guide To Markets的全文翻译，希望给大家带来帮助。\n文章来源 | JPM Guide To The Markets 3Q2020\n2020年第三季度 市场指南\n一、股票市场\n拐点处的S&P 500：S&P 500从2009年3月9日的低点到2020年2月19的高点涨了401%，然后至今(2020年6月30日)跌了8%\n\n2020年6月30日标普500估值为21.72X，过去25年平均估值水平为16.39X\n\nP/E和股票回报率\n\n2020H1标普500指数各个行业收益同比均有所下滑，其中能源市场下滑幅度最大\n\nEPS增长的来源：2020Q1 S&P 500 EPS 年化增速为-48.7%，其中三个贡献因素中利润率年化增长为47.3%，是EPS负增长的主要原因\n\n价值 VS 增长：2020H1价值相对于增长收益率为0.97，价值指数宏有56.1%的个股贝塔大于1\n\n不同风格的收益和估值：就季度来看，小市值高增长的类型收益最好，达到30.6%；按年度来看，大市值高增长的类型表现最好，达到9.8%，中市值高增长次之，为4.2%，其他类型的均为负增长\n\n不同板块的收益和估值：就季度来看，消费行业板块最好，达到32.9%；按年度来看，科技板块表现最好，达到15%，消费板块次之，为7.2%，其他类型的均为负增长\n\n因子表现：2005至2019年间动量因子的收益最好，达到11%，低波动因子次之，为10.2%，小市值因子收益最低，为7.9%，且波动率最大\n\n年化收益以及年内回调\n\n市场波动率\n\n熊市以及随后的牛市的概率\n\n1990年以来的股票市场\n\n二、宏观经济市场\n美国过去经济衰退情况\n\n经济增长以及GDP的构成：2020Q1美国名义GDP中的67.7%是消费，17.9%是政府支出，12.9%是排除房地产外的投资，4.0%是房地产\n\nCOVID-19：美国确诊以及死亡人数\n\n高频经济数据\n\n消费金融：美国消费者资产中27%是房产，21%退休金，负债中66%是房贷\n\n美国经济中的收入不平等\n\n美国经济的长期驱动因素\n\n联邦财政\n\n就业和工资\n\n商业情绪和经济周期\n\n不同教育程度人群的就业和收入\n\n通货膨胀\n\n美元驱动因素\n\n原油市场\n\n联邦政策利率：FOMC 6月纪要显示2020年美国GDP将萎缩6.5%，Q4失业率将达到9.3%，个人消费支出平减指数PCE为0.8%；长期展望美国GDP增速为1.8%，失业率为4.1%，PCEWEI 2.0%\n\n美联储的资产负债表\n\n利率和通货膨胀率\n\n三、固定收益市场动态\n\n收益率曲线\n\n固定收益率及其与股票市场的关系\n\n高收益债券：平均30年高收益债券违约率为3.56%，而截止2020年6月30日的高收益债券违约率为4.85%；\n\n公司债：政府部门的债券是2019第四季度的103.9%，处于历史高位，家庭部门的债券是2019第四季度的75.4%，非金融公司债是2019第四季度的74.9%；Baa投资级公司债券在2020年二季度末占比为48.6%，环比有所下降\n\n负收益债务：截止2020年5月31日，日本政府持有的负收益政府债务为5.35万亿美元，欧洲政府持有的负收益政府债务为5.49万亿美元，全球负收益公司债务为1.27万亿美元\n\n债券市场的流动性：2020年第一季度主要债券承销商债券库存占美国公司债整体的比例为0.3%，环比有所提升\n\n全球货币政策：预测2021年发达国家主要央行债券购买量将继续大幅增加，其中美联储债券购买量仍为最多，较2020年提升明显\n\n全球固定收益市场：截止2019年末，美国债券量为41万亿美元，其他发达国家除美国外债券量为47万亿美元，新兴市场债券量为26万亿美元\n\n固定收益细分市场收益对比：2005-2019年新兴美元债的平均收益率最高，为年化7.3%，但是波动率也最高，为10.6%，高收益债券次之，ABS的收益率最低\n\n全球股票市场：全球市场15年以来美国(以标普500为代表)股票市场平均收益率最高，为9.0%，新兴市场收益率次之，为7.8%\n\n全球股票收益的来源：2005-2019年美国权益市场收益率贡献最大的因素为收益增长，其次为分红，估值倍数贡献最小；新兴市场和欧洲除英国以外的市场中货币为负贡献\n\n货币和国际权益收益：美元走强对国际权益市场回报不利，而美元走弱有利于国际权益市场；2019年对于MSCI全球除美国指数收益来说美元对其影响为负10.8%\n\n拐点处的美国和国际权益市场：2009年至2020年6月30日标普500指数价格收益为401%，随后回调幅度为8%，而ACWI除美国权益市场指数同期收益为143%，随后回调幅度为19%\n\n国际股票收益和估值：2020年全球上市公司收益均有所下滑；估值角度来看目前美国股票市场PE最高，为21.77X\n\n全球经济增长情况：2020年5月服务业PMI指数为35.2，制造业指数为42.4%，均处于荣枯线一下，但是环比都有明显回升；2020年第一季度全球实际GDP增速为-1.7%\n\nCOVID-19：全球确诊病例和死亡人数\n\n全球经济高频活动指数：发达国家从3月低的底部均有所回升，但是认为在0以下；发展中国家中日本、中国台湾和俄罗斯恢复较快\n\n服务业动量：2020年6月主要发达国家服务业PMI指数均有所回升，其中法国达到50.3\n\n全球通货膨胀率：全球主流大部分国家通货膨胀率5月相较于4月均有所下滑\n\n新冠肺炎的财政支持力度：意大利、德国、日本面对新冠肺炎财政支持力度最大，其中意大利财政支出达到GDP的34%\n\n中国经济情况：中国2020年第一季度经济增速为-6.8%，其中投资为-1.5%，消费为-4.4%，净出口为-1.0%；2020年预计财政赤字占GDP达14%\n\n新兴市场：2020年预期新兴市场GDP的经济增速仍为正，但发达国家预计为负，两者之差环比有所提升\n\n对冲基金：预计2020年宏观对冲基金相对于对冲基金研究指数表现将会回落\n\n私募股权市场：整体来看私募股权市场收益率均高于MSCI ACWI全球二级市场股票收益；2019年美国私募股权基金完成募集但还未投出的资金在1.2万亿美元左右\n\n另类投资类别中Alerian MLP ETF年化收益最高为15.2%，而美国10年期国债收益仅为0.7%\n\n全球大宗商品：2020年6月30日金价为1801美元一盎司，与调整通货膨胀率的价格较为一致，趋势上看上升较为明显\n\n全球多种类资产配置组合(25%标普500指数, 10% 罗素2000指数, 15% MSCI EAFE指数, 5% MSCI EME, 25%彭博巴克莱美国综合指数, 5%彭博巴克莱1-3月期限国债指数, 5%彭博巴克莱高收益债券指数, 5%彭博巴克莱商品指数以及5% NAREIT Equity REIT 指数)2019年收益率为19.5%，2005-2019年化收益率为6.6%\n\n基金流入情况：从2007年累计共同基金和ETF有26110亿美元流入债券市场，2020年有所下滑；有14670亿美元流入股票市场，6020亿美元流入其他大类资产\n\n过去20年股票市场年化平均收益为11.3%，债券年化收益率为5.9%，50/50组合收益为8.9%\n\n另类资产类别中过去20年(1999-2019) REITs的年化收益率最高，为11.6%，贵金属金次之，为8.6%\n\n截止第二季度末，有37%的共和党中将国民经济状况评为优秀或良好，只有11%的民主党人将国民经济状况评为优秀或良好\n\n2020年10万美元存款账户能够获得280美元的收益，但是需要1236美元去支付通货膨胀带来的负收益，2046美元去消除教育通胀的负收益，4904美元去消除医疗保障的负收益","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":956386071,"gmtCreate":1591584695193,"gmtModify":1704195979671,"author":{"id":"3494476961005761","authorId":"3494476961005761","name":"股小年","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/325000dea22a193be7178a8bfeac446e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$</a>这是回光返照吗，还是断臂后重获新生","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$</a>这是回光返照吗，还是断臂后重获新生","text":"$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$这是回光返照吗，还是断臂后重获新生","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/956386071","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}