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如虎添翼123

如虎添翼123

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如虎添翼123

2021-01-12

$特斯拉(TSLA)$我就想问一下，还有空头吗

如虎添翼123

02-07

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 700[财迷]

如虎添翼123

02-02

上不了车啊真着急

如虎添翼123

01-31

脑机跟tsl有什么关系

如虎添翼123

01-26

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 红海竞争，都是输家

如虎添翼123

2021-02-25

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 都是托

如虎添翼123

2021-01-11

$特斯拉(TSLA)$我都能看懂这操盘手是什么意思了

如虎添翼123

2020-07-13

2020.07.13 复盘笔记 by 如虎添翼123

2020-07-13 成本现价浮动收益微美全息(WIMI) 25.26 23.35 -7.57% 来回卖飞😰😰😰😰😰

2020.07.13 复盘笔记 by 如虎添翼123

如虎添翼123

02-16

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 难受

如虎添翼123

2021-01-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$磨期权嘛，继续磨，老子陪你玩

如虎添翼123

2021-01-11

$特斯拉(TSLA)$多少人被甩下车了

如虎添翼123

03-07

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 兄弟们赶紧跑吧

如虎添翼123

2021-01-12

$特斯拉(TSLA)$这是金庸小说吗，左脚踏着右脚上天了

如虎添翼123

2020-08-18

$蔚来(NIO)$不装了？摊牌了？

如虎添翼123

10-17

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 一支穿云箭，千军万马来相见

如虎添翼123

09-25

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 无敌

如虎添翼123

09-18

靴子落地必然是涨

如虎添翼123

09-13

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 微操大师

如虎添翼123

11-21 05:36

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 多空双杀

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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无敌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353012453400888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":352619139485952,"gmtCreate":1727107500806,"gmtModify":1727107503200,"author":{"id":"3494300258505523","authorId":"3494300258505523","name":"如虎添翼123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e79239674695614dc9dee30036cab691","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494300258505523","authorIdStr":"3494300258505523"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 上不去就砸吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 上不去就砸吧","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 上不去就砸吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352619139485952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350724316180768,"gmtCreate":1726651540725,"gmtModify":1726651544685,"author":{"id":"3494300258505523","authorId":"3494300258505523","name":"如虎添翼123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e79239674695614dc9dee30036cab691","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494300258505523","authorIdStr":"3494300258505523"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"靴子落地 必然是涨","listText":"靴子落地 必然是涨","text":"靴子落地 必然是涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350724316180768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":349018273472744,"gmtCreate":1726239214980,"gmtModify":1726239216305,"author":{"id":"3494300258505523","authorId":"3494300258505523","name":"如虎添翼123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e79239674695614dc9dee30036cab691","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494300258505523","authorIdStr":"3494300258505523"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 微操大师","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 微操大师","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 微操大师","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349018273472744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338904195391712,"gmtCreate":1723744597469,"gmtModify":1723744599425,"author":{"id":"3494300258505523","authorId":"3494300258505523","name":"如虎添翼123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e79239674695614dc9dee30036cab691","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494300258505523","authorIdStr":"3494300258505523"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你现在才戴维斯双击？七八击都有了","listText":"你现在才戴维斯双击？七八击都有了","text":"你现在才戴维斯双击？七八击都有了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338904195391712","repostId":"2459420234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2459420234","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有视角的商业资讯交流平台","home_visible":1,"media_name":"虎嗅APP","id":"101","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d"},"pubTimestamp":1723734955,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2459420234?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-15 23:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达，没有“泡沫”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2459420234","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"在一系列关于英伟达股东减持、产品推进不及预期等负面消息传出之后，全球第一股终于在近期迎来了调整。而随着股价的下跌，各种噪音也纷至而来，关于AI行业以及英伟达将重演21世纪初期互联网泡沫的言论喧嚣之上。根据英伟达的财报显示。而近几个季度来，英伟达数据中心业务业绩的持续超预期，成为了其股价上涨的主要原因。但是目前来看，在AI芯片行业，尚难有企业对英伟达形成竞争。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>核心看点：</strong></p><p>在AI浪潮的推动下，英伟达的数据中心业务快速增长，公司迎来戴维斯双击；</p><p>从行业发展阶段、竞争格局变化、以及海外云厂商资本开支、估值等角度分析英伟达和当年思科对比，是否存在泡沫。</p></blockquote><p>在一系列关于英伟达股东减持、产品推进不及预期等负面消息传出之后，全球第一股终于在近期迎来了调整。从2024年6月20日的34000亿美元市值至近期的低点调整接近30%，创下了公司2023年AI行情爆发以来的最大调整幅度。</p><p>而随着股价的下跌，各种噪音也纷至而来，关于AI行业以及英伟达将重演21世纪初期互联网泡沫的言论喧嚣之上。那么对比2000年左右思科的互联网泡沫，现阶段的英伟达真的出现泡沫了吗？又如何看待当前英伟达的投资价值？</p><p>本文将对比此前思科在2000年左右所处的行业以及竞争阶段，来对英伟达当前是否真的存在巨大的泡沫进行分析。</p><p><strong>#01</strong></p><p><strong>数据中心业务推动英伟达戴维斯双击</strong></p><p>在美股的投资上，2000年前后的互联网泡沫绝对是其历史上浓重的一笔，而在其中具有典型代表的思科，可以说和当前的英伟达具有众多相似之处。</p><p>把铲子卖给挖金者，是国内一个经典的商业寓言。作为互联网基础设施的提供商，思科的路由器和交换机等设备是互联网部署中不可或缺的，这使得它在互联网泡沫期间成为投资者的宠儿。</p><p><strong>而英伟达同样也是这波AI发展的卖铲子企业，在这波AI的浪潮中率先受益。</strong>根据英伟达的财报显示。英伟达将其主营业务分为四大领域，分别是数据中心、游戏、专业视觉、汽车和嵌入式技术，游戏业务和数据中心业务是公司发展的重中之重。</p><p>游戏业务在2022年之前是英伟达的主要收入来源，但是这两年的增长明显放缓主要为游戏玩家提供高性能的图形卡，代表产品包括现在市场大火的4090显卡。</p><p><strong>数据中心业务是当前英伟达的主要成长动力，</strong>主要包括为数据中心提供强大的计算能力的算力卡，代表产品包括大家了解的比较多的A100、H100、B100、B200等产品。</p><p><strong>而近几个季度来，英伟达数据中心业务业绩的持续超预期，成为了其股价上涨的主要原因。</strong>在整个PC业务出现萎缩的背景下，英伟达传统的游戏业务在近两年的增长并不明显，但是其数据中心业务营收及利润的持续超预期成为了推动英伟达股价增长的主要驱动力。</p><p>一方面，从营收来看，得益于下游AI行业的大爆发，英伟达的数据中心产品业绩环比持续增长，2023年Q1仅有不到300亿左右，但到2024年Q1，仅仅只过去四个季度之后，英伟达的数据中心产品单季度营收就已经达到1603亿，也就说仅仅一年的时间其营收增长超过4倍，而这一趋势还在增长之中。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb4692733b5829d648e6a077a1161c2c\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"507\"/></p><p><strong>营收在增长的同时，英伟达超预期的点还在于其盈利能力的大幅提高。</strong>随着其数据中心业务占比的提升，英伟达的毛利率2023年Q1的65%提升到2024年Q1的78%，净利润率更是提升更为恐怖，从2023年Q1只有28%提升至2024年Q1的57%，提升将近30个点。（作为对比，苹果的净利润率只有25%左右，茅台的净利润率为52%)。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d63f1cd828d367e9d15403884c9e2a\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"507\"/></p><p>在业绩和估值双重提升下，英伟达的股价一路走高，从2023年至今股价的涨幅已经超过700%，并在近期正式超过苹果，成为美股市值最大的公司。</p><p>但是受到各种消息的影响，例如股东减持、B200推出进展不及预期，加上市场对于美国经济衰退的预期，让市场不禁开始担忧，英伟达是否已经存在了巨大的泡沫？</p><p>并将其和2000年互联网泡沫中同样卖铲子的思科这家公司联系了起来，思科随着互联网泡沫的破裂，市值一度从5792亿美元跌到1642亿美元，跌掉了三分之二，<strong>但目前来看，两者暂时并不具有可比性。</strong></p><p><strong>#02</strong></p><p><strong>对比2000年互联网泡沫，英伟达不是思科</strong></p><p><strong>首先，从当前产业发展阶段来看，当前阶段的英伟达和彼时互联网泡沫破灭之际的思科有很大的不同。</strong></p><p>互联网的浪潮始于1994年，当时随着美国政府放开对互联网的商业限制，各种商业活动开始涌入互联网，包括在线广告、电子商务等。而这大幅增加了对互联网部署的需求，主营通信设备的思科开始取得快速的增长。</p><p>到2000年思科的泡沫破灭之际，行业的发展已经6年左右。而经过了长达6年的发展，行业的快速增长已经开始放缓。以美国的互联网用户为例，在1993年占总人口比重仅为2%；1994年，美国的互联网用户同比增长高达116%，但随着用户渗透率的提升，增速逐渐放缓，到1999年增速降至20%。</p><p>从时间和产业化进展角度来看，AI行业尚处于早期阶段。一方面，AI行业的快速发展也只有不到2年左右，ChatGPT横空出世，随后全球快速进入生成式AI大模型的研发当中，对训练和推理导致模型对算力需求的高速增长，这成为英伟达业绩高增长的开始，到目前也才持续一年左右。</p><p>另一方面，在应用和商业化过程中，AI还处于非常早期的阶段。目前各个公司的大模型到目前为止，并不算成熟，还需要大量的数据进行投喂和训练，更不用说，市场寄予厚望的AI手机、AI PC等实际落地场景中，目前都还处于从0-1的阶段，AI行业的发展仍然还处于初期的探索之中。</p><p><strong>其次，复盘思科的泡沫的覆灭过程，另一个重要原因在于彼时其竞争格局的恶化，但是现阶段对于英伟达来讲，谈起面临的竞争压力还为时尚早。</strong></p><p>2000年前后，虽然思科依然保持着在其在网络设备市场的领导低位，特别是网络交换机和路由器领域，但是其面临的竞争开始日益激烈。其中瞻博网络在2000年推出加强型核心路由器M-160，直接挑战思科在高端路由器领域的地位。</p><p>同年华为发布了中国首款高端路由器NetEngine，标志着其在核心路由器领域的产品能力。而在之后的两年中，也就是2002年，华为不仅在国内击败了思科，斩获了大量市场份额，还在美国亚特兰大的电信设备展上展示了性能与思科相当的数据产品，价格却低20%到50%，进一步抢占思科市场。</p><p><strong>但是目前来看，在AI芯片行业，尚难有企业对英伟达形成竞争。</strong>一方面，行业的技术仍在不断的创新之中，英伟达仍然是供给创造需求的引领者。以市场寄予厚望的Blackwell芯片GB200，包括2个B200GPU+1个ARM Grace CPU，较相同数量的H100性能提升30倍，成本和能耗降低25倍，再次实现自我产品的大更新，遥遥领先其他公司。</p><p>虽然AMD在近几个季度的营收也大幅上涨，在2024年Q2收入创纪录新高至28亿美元，同比增长115%，环比增长21%，但是其营收规模仅有英伟达的八分之一左右，而在其高端产品MI300芯片方面，主要对标英伟达的H100，和英伟达的即将量产B200系列存在不小差距。</p><p><strong>此外，思科在2000年崩盘的另一个原因也和各个互联网企业难以盈利，下调资本开支有关，但是作为AI行业投资的先行指标，目前北美四大云厂商的资本开支增长尚没有出现放缓的迹象。</strong></p><p>英伟达作为卖铲子的公司，可以说和云服务企业的资本开支密切相关，随着生成式AI技术的快速崛起，对AI算力需求的大幅提升，英伟达作为AI芯片的主要供应商，其业绩与北美云厂商的资本开支密切相关。</p><p>从目前北美四大云厂商的资本开支情况来看，在2024年2季度各家的资本开支创出历史新高之后，各家公司还在不断地调高资本开支的预期。</p><p>其中Meta上修24年资本支出中值，预计24年资本支出370-400亿美元，中值385。亚马逊称，24H1在网络服务云部门的数据中心等资本支出上已花费350亿美元，预计下半年资本支出会高于350亿美元。在不断上调的预期之下，将会带动英伟达的业绩持续增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1cc6c6644a34131d8febb5209e20593\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"507\"/></p><p><strong>对于一家行业仍处于发展初期、在行业内极具竞争力的公司来讲，可能目前唯一要担心的点就是估值是不是太贵了？这也是投资者担心的另一个原因。</strong></p><p>但是估值往往又和其增长极具关联性，一家80XPE的公司，如果明年获得了100%的增长，那么就是40XPE，到后年如果继续增长也就是只有20X PE。</p><p>英伟达同样如此，虽然公司的股价大涨，但是能看到公司的业绩同样也在快速的增长之中，而从PE-TTM来看，英伟达的估值虽然不算便宜，但不算过于离谱，这是因为在英伟达股价上涨的同时，其业绩也在不断地增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61eb8c96a04a408af521ab3cf71215f6\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p>而远期来看，根据市场的预期，英伟达在今年的业绩在600亿美元左右，对应估值也只有40 X PE左右，而到明年，市场对于英伟达的乐观预期1100-1300亿美元左右，对于当前的26000亿美元市场，同样的只有20多倍左右。</p><p><strong>因此，</strong>虽然市场对于英伟达担心较多，且其估值并不算便宜，但是现阶段的英伟达谈不上有太大的泡沫。（备注：如果美股出现整体崩盘下跌的风险，英伟达的整体市场风险偏好可能会有所下降，对其估值可能会有一点的影响）</p><p>市场的噪音短期可能会对公司的股价造成影响，但是拉长周期看，在行业发展仍在演进的初期，业绩的增长也会逐渐的消化其估值，每一波非理性的下调又何尝不是机会呢？</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达，没有“泡沫”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达，没有“泡沫”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-08-15 23:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>核心看点：</strong></p><p>在AI浪潮的推动下，英伟达的数据中心业务快速增长，公司迎来戴维斯双击；</p><p>从行业发展阶段、竞争格局变化、以及海外云厂商资本开支、估值等角度分析英伟达和当年思科对比，是否存在泡沫。</p></blockquote><p>在一系列关于英伟达股东减持、产品推进不及预期等负面消息传出之后，全球第一股终于在近期迎来了调整。从2024年6月20日的34000亿美元市值至近期的低点调整接近30%，创下了公司2023年AI行情爆发以来的最大调整幅度。</p><p>而随着股价的下跌，各种噪音也纷至而来，关于AI行业以及英伟达将重演21世纪初期互联网泡沫的言论喧嚣之上。那么对比2000年左右思科的互联网泡沫，现阶段的英伟达真的出现泡沫了吗？又如何看待当前英伟达的投资价值？</p><p>本文将对比此前思科在2000年左右所处的行业以及竞争阶段，来对英伟达当前是否真的存在巨大的泡沫进行分析。</p><p><strong>#01</strong></p><p><strong>数据中心业务推动英伟达戴维斯双击</strong></p><p>在美股的投资上，2000年前后的互联网泡沫绝对是其历史上浓重的一笔，而在其中具有典型代表的思科，可以说和当前的英伟达具有众多相似之处。</p><p>把铲子卖给挖金者，是国内一个经典的商业寓言。作为互联网基础设施的提供商，思科的路由器和交换机等设备是互联网部署中不可或缺的，这使得它在互联网泡沫期间成为投资者的宠儿。</p><p><strong>而英伟达同样也是这波AI发展的卖铲子企业，在这波AI的浪潮中率先受益。</strong>根据英伟达的财报显示。英伟达将其主营业务分为四大领域，分别是数据中心、游戏、专业视觉、汽车和嵌入式技术，游戏业务和数据中心业务是公司发展的重中之重。</p><p>游戏业务在2022年之前是英伟达的主要收入来源，但是这两年的增长明显放缓主要为游戏玩家提供高性能的图形卡，代表产品包括现在市场大火的4090显卡。</p><p><strong>数据中心业务是当前英伟达的主要成长动力，</strong>主要包括为数据中心提供强大的计算能力的算力卡，代表产品包括大家了解的比较多的A100、H100、B100、B200等产品。</p><p><strong>而近几个季度来，英伟达数据中心业务业绩的持续超预期，成为了其股价上涨的主要原因。</strong>在整个PC业务出现萎缩的背景下，英伟达传统的游戏业务在近两年的增长并不明显，但是其数据中心业务营收及利润的持续超预期成为了推动英伟达股价增长的主要驱动力。</p><p>一方面，从营收来看，得益于下游AI行业的大爆发，英伟达的数据中心产品业绩环比持续增长，2023年Q1仅有不到300亿左右，但到2024年Q1，仅仅只过去四个季度之后，英伟达的数据中心产品单季度营收就已经达到1603亿，也就说仅仅一年的时间其营收增长超过4倍，而这一趋势还在增长之中。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb4692733b5829d648e6a077a1161c2c\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"507\"/></p><p><strong>营收在增长的同时，英伟达超预期的点还在于其盈利能力的大幅提高。</strong>随着其数据中心业务占比的提升，英伟达的毛利率2023年Q1的65%提升到2024年Q1的78%，净利润率更是提升更为恐怖，从2023年Q1只有28%提升至2024年Q1的57%，提升将近30个点。（作为对比，苹果的净利润率只有25%左右，茅台的净利润率为52%)。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d63f1cd828d367e9d15403884c9e2a\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"507\"/></p><p>在业绩和估值双重提升下，英伟达的股价一路走高，从2023年至今股价的涨幅已经超过700%，并在近期正式超过苹果，成为美股市值最大的公司。</p><p>但是受到各种消息的影响，例如股东减持、B200推出进展不及预期，加上市场对于美国经济衰退的预期，让市场不禁开始担忧，英伟达是否已经存在了巨大的泡沫？</p><p>并将其和2000年互联网泡沫中同样卖铲子的思科这家公司联系了起来，思科随着互联网泡沫的破裂，市值一度从5792亿美元跌到1642亿美元，跌掉了三分之二，<strong>但目前来看，两者暂时并不具有可比性。</strong></p><p><strong>#02</strong></p><p><strong>对比2000年互联网泡沫，英伟达不是思科</strong></p><p><strong>首先，从当前产业发展阶段来看，当前阶段的英伟达和彼时互联网泡沫破灭之际的思科有很大的不同。</strong></p><p>互联网的浪潮始于1994年，当时随着美国政府放开对互联网的商业限制，各种商业活动开始涌入互联网，包括在线广告、电子商务等。而这大幅增加了对互联网部署的需求，主营通信设备的思科开始取得快速的增长。</p><p>到2000年思科的泡沫破灭之际，行业的发展已经6年左右。而经过了长达6年的发展，行业的快速增长已经开始放缓。以美国的互联网用户为例，在1993年占总人口比重仅为2%；1994年，美国的互联网用户同比增长高达116%，但随着用户渗透率的提升，增速逐渐放缓，到1999年增速降至20%。</p><p>从时间和产业化进展角度来看，AI行业尚处于早期阶段。一方面，AI行业的快速发展也只有不到2年左右，ChatGPT横空出世，随后全球快速进入生成式AI大模型的研发当中，对训练和推理导致模型对算力需求的高速增长，这成为英伟达业绩高增长的开始，到目前也才持续一年左右。</p><p>另一方面，在应用和商业化过程中，AI还处于非常早期的阶段。目前各个公司的大模型到目前为止，并不算成熟，还需要大量的数据进行投喂和训练，更不用说，市场寄予厚望的AI手机、AI PC等实际落地场景中，目前都还处于从0-1的阶段，AI行业的发展仍然还处于初期的探索之中。</p><p><strong>其次，复盘思科的泡沫的覆灭过程，另一个重要原因在于彼时其竞争格局的恶化，但是现阶段对于英伟达来讲，谈起面临的竞争压力还为时尚早。</strong></p><p>2000年前后，虽然思科依然保持着在其在网络设备市场的领导低位，特别是网络交换机和路由器领域，但是其面临的竞争开始日益激烈。其中瞻博网络在2000年推出加强型核心路由器M-160，直接挑战思科在高端路由器领域的地位。</p><p>同年华为发布了中国首款高端路由器NetEngine，标志着其在核心路由器领域的产品能力。而在之后的两年中，也就是2002年，华为不仅在国内击败了思科，斩获了大量市场份额，还在美国亚特兰大的电信设备展上展示了性能与思科相当的数据产品，价格却低20%到50%，进一步抢占思科市场。</p><p><strong>但是目前来看，在AI芯片行业，尚难有企业对英伟达形成竞争。</strong>一方面，行业的技术仍在不断的创新之中，英伟达仍然是供给创造需求的引领者。以市场寄予厚望的Blackwell芯片GB200，包括2个B200GPU+1个ARM Grace CPU，较相同数量的H100性能提升30倍，成本和能耗降低25倍，再次实现自我产品的大更新，遥遥领先其他公司。</p><p>虽然AMD在近几个季度的营收也大幅上涨，在2024年Q2收入创纪录新高至28亿美元，同比增长115%，环比增长21%，但是其营收规模仅有英伟达的八分之一左右，而在其高端产品MI300芯片方面，主要对标英伟达的H100，和英伟达的即将量产B200系列存在不小差距。</p><p><strong>此外，思科在2000年崩盘的另一个原因也和各个互联网企业难以盈利，下调资本开支有关，但是作为AI行业投资的先行指标，目前北美四大云厂商的资本开支增长尚没有出现放缓的迹象。</strong></p><p>英伟达作为卖铲子的公司，可以说和云服务企业的资本开支密切相关，随着生成式AI技术的快速崛起，对AI算力需求的大幅提升，英伟达作为AI芯片的主要供应商，其业绩与北美云厂商的资本开支密切相关。</p><p>从目前北美四大云厂商的资本开支情况来看，在2024年2季度各家的资本开支创出历史新高之后，各家公司还在不断地调高资本开支的预期。</p><p>其中Meta上修24年资本支出中值，预计24年资本支出370-400亿美元，中值385。亚马逊称，24H1在网络服务云部门的数据中心等资本支出上已花费350亿美元，预计下半年资本支出会高于350亿美元。在不断上调的预期之下，将会带动英伟达的业绩持续增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1cc6c6644a34131d8febb5209e20593\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"507\"/></p><p><strong>对于一家行业仍处于发展初期、在行业内极具竞争力的公司来讲，可能目前唯一要担心的点就是估值是不是太贵了？这也是投资者担心的另一个原因。</strong></p><p>但是估值往往又和其增长极具关联性，一家80XPE的公司，如果明年获得了100%的增长，那么就是40XPE，到后年如果继续增长也就是只有20X PE。</p><p>英伟达同样如此，虽然公司的股价大涨，但是能看到公司的业绩同样也在快速的增长之中，而从PE-TTM来看，英伟达的估值虽然不算便宜，但不算过于离谱，这是因为在英伟达股价上涨的同时，其业绩也在不断地增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61eb8c96a04a408af521ab3cf71215f6\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p>而远期来看，根据市场的预期，英伟达在今年的业绩在600亿美元左右，对应估值也只有40 X PE左右，而到明年，市场对于英伟达的乐观预期1100-1300亿美元左右，对于当前的26000亿美元市场，同样的只有20多倍左右。</p><p><strong>因此，</strong>虽然市场对于英伟达担心较多，且其估值并不算便宜，但是现阶段的英伟达谈不上有太大的泡沫。（备注：如果美股出现整体崩盘下跌的风险，英伟达的整体市场风险偏好可能会有所下降，对其估值可能会有一点的影响）</p><p>市场的噪音短期可能会对公司的股价造成影响，但是拉长周期看，在行业发展仍在演进的初期，业绩的增长也会逐渐的消化其估值，每一波非理性的下调又何尝不是机会呢？</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/757b6621cf609f7f4c809ddbb3302be6","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202408152146509f2e0469&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2459420234","content_text":"核心看点：在AI浪潮的推动下，英伟达的数据中心业务快速增长，公司迎来戴维斯双击；从行业发展阶段、竞争格局变化、以及海外云厂商资本开支、估值等角度分析英伟达和当年思科对比，是否存在泡沫。在一系列关于英伟达股东减持、产品推进不及预期等负面消息传出之后，全球第一股终于在近期迎来了调整。从2024年6月20日的34000亿美元市值至近期的低点调整接近30%，创下了公司2023年AI行情爆发以来的最大调整幅度。而随着股价的下跌，各种噪音也纷至而来，关于AI行业以及英伟达将重演21世纪初期互联网泡沫的言论喧嚣之上。那么对比2000年左右思科的互联网泡沫，现阶段的英伟达真的出现泡沫了吗？又如何看待当前英伟达的投资价值？本文将对比此前思科在2000年左右所处的行业以及竞争阶段，来对英伟达当前是否真的存在巨大的泡沫进行分析。#01数据中心业务推动英伟达戴维斯双击在美股的投资上，2000年前后的互联网泡沫绝对是其历史上浓重的一笔，而在其中具有典型代表的思科，可以说和当前的英伟达具有众多相似之处。把铲子卖给挖金者，是国内一个经典的商业寓言。作为互联网基础设施的提供商，思科的路由器和交换机等设备是互联网部署中不可或缺的，这使得它在互联网泡沫期间成为投资者的宠儿。而英伟达同样也是这波AI发展的卖铲子企业，在这波AI的浪潮中率先受益。根据英伟达的财报显示。英伟达将其主营业务分为四大领域，分别是数据中心、游戏、专业视觉、汽车和嵌入式技术，游戏业务和数据中心业务是公司发展的重中之重。游戏业务在2022年之前是英伟达的主要收入来源，但是这两年的增长明显放缓主要为游戏玩家提供高性能的图形卡，代表产品包括现在市场大火的4090显卡。数据中心业务是当前英伟达的主要成长动力，主要包括为数据中心提供强大的计算能力的算力卡，代表产品包括大家了解的比较多的A100、H100、B100、B200等产品。而近几个季度来，英伟达数据中心业务业绩的持续超预期，成为了其股价上涨的主要原因。在整个PC业务出现萎缩的背景下，英伟达传统的游戏业务在近两年的增长并不明显，但是其数据中心业务营收及利润的持续超预期成为了推动英伟达股价增长的主要驱动力。一方面，从营收来看，得益于下游AI行业的大爆发，英伟达的数据中心产品业绩环比持续增长，2023年Q1仅有不到300亿左右，但到2024年Q1，仅仅只过去四个季度之后，英伟达的数据中心产品单季度营收就已经达到1603亿，也就说仅仅一年的时间其营收增长超过4倍，而这一趋势还在增长之中。营收在增长的同时，英伟达超预期的点还在于其盈利能力的大幅提高。随着其数据中心业务占比的提升，英伟达的毛利率2023年Q1的65%提升到2024年Q1的78%，净利润率更是提升更为恐怖，从2023年Q1只有28%提升至2024年Q1的57%，提升将近30个点。（作为对比，苹果的净利润率只有25%左右，茅台的净利润率为52%)。在业绩和估值双重提升下，英伟达的股价一路走高，从2023年至今股价的涨幅已经超过700%，并在近期正式超过苹果，成为美股市值最大的公司。但是受到各种消息的影响，例如股东减持、B200推出进展不及预期，加上市场对于美国经济衰退的预期，让市场不禁开始担忧，英伟达是否已经存在了巨大的泡沫？并将其和2000年互联网泡沫中同样卖铲子的思科这家公司联系了起来，思科随着互联网泡沫的破裂，市值一度从5792亿美元跌到1642亿美元，跌掉了三分之二，但目前来看，两者暂时并不具有可比性。#02对比2000年互联网泡沫，英伟达不是思科首先，从当前产业发展阶段来看，当前阶段的英伟达和彼时互联网泡沫破灭之际的思科有很大的不同。互联网的浪潮始于1994年，当时随着美国政府放开对互联网的商业限制，各种商业活动开始涌入互联网，包括在线广告、电子商务等。而这大幅增加了对互联网部署的需求，主营通信设备的思科开始取得快速的增长。到2000年思科的泡沫破灭之际，行业的发展已经6年左右。而经过了长达6年的发展，行业的快速增长已经开始放缓。以美国的互联网用户为例，在1993年占总人口比重仅为2%；1994年，美国的互联网用户同比增长高达116%，但随着用户渗透率的提升，增速逐渐放缓，到1999年增速降至20%。从时间和产业化进展角度来看，AI行业尚处于早期阶段。一方面，AI行业的快速发展也只有不到2年左右，ChatGPT横空出世，随后全球快速进入生成式AI大模型的研发当中，对训练和推理导致模型对算力需求的高速增长，这成为英伟达业绩高增长的开始，到目前也才持续一年左右。另一方面，在应用和商业化过程中，AI还处于非常早期的阶段。目前各个公司的大模型到目前为止，并不算成熟，还需要大量的数据进行投喂和训练，更不用说，市场寄予厚望的AI手机、AI PC等实际落地场景中，目前都还处于从0-1的阶段，AI行业的发展仍然还处于初期的探索之中。其次，复盘思科的泡沫的覆灭过程，另一个重要原因在于彼时其竞争格局的恶化，但是现阶段对于英伟达来讲，谈起面临的竞争压力还为时尚早。2000年前后，虽然思科依然保持着在其在网络设备市场的领导低位，特别是网络交换机和路由器领域，但是其面临的竞争开始日益激烈。其中瞻博网络在2000年推出加强型核心路由器M-160，直接挑战思科在高端路由器领域的地位。同年华为发布了中国首款高端路由器NetEngine，标志着其在核心路由器领域的产品能力。而在之后的两年中，也就是2002年，华为不仅在国内击败了思科，斩获了大量市场份额，还在美国亚特兰大的电信设备展上展示了性能与思科相当的数据产品，价格却低20%到50%，进一步抢占思科市场。但是目前来看，在AI芯片行业，尚难有企业对英伟达形成竞争。一方面，行业的技术仍在不断的创新之中，英伟达仍然是供给创造需求的引领者。以市场寄予厚望的Blackwell芯片GB200，包括2个B200GPU+1个ARM Grace CPU，较相同数量的H100性能提升30倍，成本和能耗降低25倍，再次实现自我产品的大更新，遥遥领先其他公司。虽然AMD在近几个季度的营收也大幅上涨，在2024年Q2收入创纪录新高至28亿美元，同比增长115%，环比增长21%，但是其营收规模仅有英伟达的八分之一左右，而在其高端产品MI300芯片方面，主要对标英伟达的H100，和英伟达的即将量产B200系列存在不小差距。此外，思科在2000年崩盘的另一个原因也和各个互联网企业难以盈利，下调资本开支有关，但是作为AI行业投资的先行指标，目前北美四大云厂商的资本开支增长尚没有出现放缓的迹象。英伟达作为卖铲子的公司，可以说和云服务企业的资本开支密切相关，随着生成式AI技术的快速崛起，对AI算力需求的大幅提升，英伟达作为AI芯片的主要供应商，其业绩与北美云厂商的资本开支密切相关。从目前北美四大云厂商的资本开支情况来看，在2024年2季度各家的资本开支创出历史新高之后，各家公司还在不断地调高资本开支的预期。其中Meta上修24年资本支出中值，预计24年资本支出370-400亿美元，中值385。亚马逊称，24H1在网络服务云部门的数据中心等资本支出上已花费350亿美元，预计下半年资本支出会高于350亿美元。在不断上调的预期之下，将会带动英伟达的业绩持续增长。对于一家行业仍处于发展初期、在行业内极具竞争力的公司来讲，可能目前唯一要担心的点就是估值是不是太贵了？这也是投资者担心的另一个原因。但是估值往往又和其增长极具关联性，一家80XPE的公司，如果明年获得了100%的增长，那么就是40XPE，到后年如果继续增长也就是只有20X PE。英伟达同样如此，虽然公司的股价大涨，但是能看到公司的业绩同样也在快速的增长之中，而从PE-TTM来看，英伟达的估值虽然不算便宜，但不算过于离谱，这是因为在英伟达股价上涨的同时，其业绩也在不断地增长。而远期来看，根据市场的预期，英伟达在今年的业绩在600亿美元左右，对应估值也只有40 X 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波澜壮阔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320344137359552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314273790083312,"gmtCreate":1717757833202,"gmtModify":1717757834472,"author":{"id":"3494300258505523","authorId":"3494300258505523","name":"如虎添翼123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e79239674695614dc9dee30036cab691","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494300258505523","authorIdStr":"3494300258505523"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a> 利空为何解释为利好","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a> 利空为何解释为利好","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 利空为何解释为利好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314273790083312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":312979115950368,"gmtCreate":1717433073918,"gmtModify":1717433075712,"author":{"id":"3494300258505523","authorId":"3494300258505523","name":"如虎添翼123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e79239674695614dc9dee30036cab691","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494300258505523","authorIdStr":"3494300258505523"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"成交的发财了","listText":"成交的发财了","text":"成交的发财了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312979115950368","repostId":"1159180863","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1159180863","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1717429539,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159180863?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-03 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tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>北京时间23:12，纽约证交所在一封电子邮件中表示，CTA SIP发布的全行业报价区间技术问题已经得到解决。上述问题触发了纽约证交所挂牌的大量股票停牌，受影响的股票已恢复或正在恢复交易。</p><p>北京时间23:37，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔恢复了交易，截止发稿该股涨超15%！</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b81d080119383c2c26bbe327bae99c7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"563\"/></p><p>但目前，纽交所网站的伯克希尔股价暂未恢复。</p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>纽交所技术问题得到解决，所有受影响的股票已经恢复交易</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n纽交所技术问题得到解决，所有受影响的股票已经恢复交易\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-03 23:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>纽交所技术问题得到解决，所有受影响的股票已经恢复交易！伯克希尔-A恢复交易，一度涨超15%。</strong></p></blockquote><p>6月3日晚间，纽约证券交易所因技术故障导致部分股票价格显示异常。其中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMO\">蒙特利尔银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOLD\">巴里克黄金</a>等股票跌幅在98%以上，且行情静止不动。</p><p>纽交所方面表示，正在调查一个与涨跌幅限制有关的技术问题，目前尚不清楚有多少股票受此问题的影响。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab896811d19691d6148a195ee120f157\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"853\"/></p><p>北京时间22:54，纽交所恢复了部分暂停交易的股票的交易，蒙特利尔银行、巴里克黄金恢复交易，现分别为跌0.58%和涨0.67%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a93eb6070e6dd7037ba4e83a5766309\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>北京时间23:12，纽约证交所在一封电子邮件中表示，CTA SIP发布的全行业报价区间技术问题已经得到解决。上述问题触发了纽约证交所挂牌的大量股票停牌，受影响的股票已恢复或正在恢复交易。</p><p>北京时间23:37，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔恢复了交易，截止发稿该股涨超15%！</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b81d080119383c2c26bbe327bae99c7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"563\"/></p><p>但目前，纽交所网站的伯克希尔股价暂未恢复。</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cd43e8059ee9e8fb4cd6045c9c49d5","relate_stocks":{"IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4176":"多领域控股","CAMP":"Camp4 Therapeutics Corp.","SMR":"NuScale Power","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","GOLD":"巴里克黄金"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159180863","content_text":"纽交所技术问题得到解决，所有受影响的股票已经恢复交易！伯克希尔-A恢复交易，一度涨超15%。6月3日晚间，纽约证券交易所因技术故障导致部分股票价格显示异常。其中，伯克希尔、蒙特利尔银行、巴里克黄金等股票跌幅在98%以上，且行情静止不动。纽交所方面表示，正在调查一个与涨跌幅限制有关的技术问题，目前尚不清楚有多少股票受此问题的影响。北京时间22:54，纽交所恢复了部分暂停交易的股票的交易，蒙特利尔银行、巴里克黄金恢复交易，现分别为跌0.58%和涨0.67%。北京时间23:12，纽约证交所在一封电子邮件中表示，CTA 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这狗庄我是服[喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/288544387182880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":288512738287904,"gmtCreate":1711470485880,"gmtModify":1711470487711,"author":{"id":"3494300258505523","authorId":"3494300258505523","name":"如虎添翼123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e79239674695614dc9dee30036cab691","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494300258505523","authorIdStr":"3494300258505523"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不如许家印啊","listText":"不如许家印啊","text":"不如许家印啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/288512738287904","repostId":"2422631321","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2422631321","pubTimestamp":1711431920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2422631321?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-26 13:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"嫌美股太贵？手握1680亿美元巨额现金，“股神”巴菲特迟迟不愿入场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2422631321","media":"智通财经","summary":"没有采取行动才是最能说明问题的。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>自1960年代中期以来，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的总回报率约为34,200%，而“股神”沃伦·巴菲特自担任<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>哈撒韦公司首席执行官以来，该公司的A类股票累计涨幅达到了惊人的5,074,030%。</p><p>他和投资团队通常会寻找那些提供持续竞争优势、拥有坚如磐石的管理团队的企业。由于巴菲特在资金管理方面取得的巨大成功，专业投资者和普通投资者都倾向于参考他的投资策略。投资者可以通过伯克希尔哈撒韦向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交的季度持仓报告(13F)来了解巴菲特的买卖情况。</p><p>但有的时候，没有采取行动才是最能说明问题的。</p><p><strong>手握1680亿美元现金</strong></p><p>大约一个月前，伯克希尔哈撒韦布了2023年第四季度业绩。该公司Q4营业利润较上年同期增长约65亿美元，至374亿美元。虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦最为人所知的可能是其价值3760亿美元的投资组合，其中包括45只股票和两只指数基金，但该公司还拥有大约50家企业的股权，如保险公司GEICO和铁路公司BNSF。</p><p>值得注意的是，在过去的五个季度(从2022年10月1日开始)中，巴菲特和他的投资“副手”泰德·韦施勒和托德·库姆斯一直是股票的净卖家。换句话说，在过去15个月里，他们卖出的股票超过了买入的股票，总计接近390亿美元。</p><p>从经营中获得正现金流，再加上一直是股票的净卖家，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的现金储备膨胀至1676亿美元的历史最高水平。</p><p>一般来说，手头拥有大量现金，为大多数企业提供了在创新、资本回报和收购方面令人羡慕的财务灵活性。</p><p>但伯克希尔哈撒韦公司并不是一家普通的公司。几十年来，巴菲特和他的团队一直指望用伯克希尔的资本来补充营业利润的增长，并推动投资收益。简而言之，快速增长的现金储备表明，巴菲特没有找到任何值得投资的公司。他不愿将公司的资本投入使用，这是一个无声的警告，投资者不应忽视。</p><p><strong>美股估值处于历史高位</strong></p><p>尽管巴菲特声称永远不会做空美国，但伯克希尔不断增长的现金储备表明，如果估值不合适，他也不会押注股票。</p><p>虽然华尔街不乏分析估值的方法，但标普500指数的席勒市盈率(P/E)，也被称为周期调整市盈率(CAPE)，是最好的方法之一。</p><p>席勒市盈率不像传统市盈率那样使用过去12个月的收益，而是基于过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。经通胀调整后的收益剔除了可能影响传统估值分析的一次性事件，如新冠疫情。</p><p>回溯至1871年，标普500指数的席勒市盈率平均为17.1倍，不算高。截至2024年3月20日收盘，标普500指数的席勒市盈率略低于35倍。这是牛市期间最高的倍数之一。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34ebef9781a0613cde1e49761b51b7ba\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"867\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><p>纵观历史，每当席勒市盈率超过30倍并长时间保持这一水平时，股市面临下跌风险。自1871年起，道琼斯工业平均指数或标普500指数曾出现过五次这样的情况，最终股市都下跌了20%至89%。</p><p>不过，席勒市盈率并不是一个择时工具。例如，1997年至2001年间，该指标有4年时间保持在30以上，之后互联网泡沫重创了估值较高的成长型股票。现在席勒市盈率接近35并不意味着股市很快就会出现下跌。但历史确实表明，熊市终将到来。</p><p>巴菲特在最近致股东的年度信中表示：“不管出于什么原因，现在的市场表现出比我年轻时更像赌场的行为。”一位著名投资者将股市形容为“赌场”，这表明目前很难找到价值。</p><p><strong>耐心和远见永远胜过市场时机</strong></p><p>尽管巴菲特对华尔街的“赌场”特征直言不讳，但他曾多次明确表示永远不会做空美国。巴菲特比大多数投资者更明白，耐心和远见远比试图把握股票的短期走势重要得多。</p><p>例如，经济放缓和衰退是经济周期的正常组成部分。自第二次世界大战结束以来，美国经历了12次经济衰退，其中9次在不到一年的时间里就得到解决。其余3次均未超过18个月。相比之下，大多数增长期都能持续数年，有2次增长时间超过了10年大关。</p><p>这种经济扩张和衰退持续时间的不平衡在股市上也很明显。虽然股市不能反映美国经济的表现，但企业盈利通常会随着经济的健康状况而起伏。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55562b8d8ce74a5d968b9acaa5eb1334\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"715\"/></p><p>Bespoke的数据显示，熊市平均持续286个日历日，约为9.5个月。另一方面，在过去94年里，典型的牛市持续了1,011个日历日，大约是熊市平均时间的3.5倍。事实上，在Bespoke研究的27次牛市中，有13次的持续时间比最长的熊市还要长。</p><p>The Motley Fool分析师Sean Williams认为，巴菲特不断增长的现金储备明确但无声地承认，他和他的团队都没有看到太多价值。但这并不意味着巴菲特放弃了给他和股东带来巨大财富的美国股市。</p><p>半个多世纪以来，巴菲特一直利用伯克希尔的资金，以低廉的价格收购优质企业。虽然没有人知道巴菲特什么时候会再次出手，但可以肯定的是，在未来的某个时候，伯克希尔1680亿美元现金储备中的相当一部分将会投入使用。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>嫌美股太贵？手握1680亿美元巨额现金，“股神”巴菲特迟迟不愿入场</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n嫌美股太贵？手握1680亿美元巨额现金，“股神”巴菲特迟迟不愿入场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-26 13:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1092146.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>自1960年代中期以来，标普500指数的总回报率约为34,200%，而“股神”沃伦·巴菲特自担任伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官以来，该公司的A类股票累计涨幅达到了惊人的5,074,030%。他和投资团队通常会寻找那些提供持续竞争优势、拥有坚如磐石的管理团队的企业。由于巴菲特在资金管理方面取得的巨大成功，专业投资者和普通投资者都倾向于参考他的投资策略。投资者可以通过伯克希尔哈撒韦向美国证券交易委员会(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1092146.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ecc14db02762fcb82cdbb76e654301","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1092146.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2422631321","content_text":"自1960年代中期以来，标普500指数的总回报率约为34,200%，而“股神”沃伦·巴菲特自担任伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官以来，该公司的A类股票累计涨幅达到了惊人的5,074,030%。他和投资团队通常会寻找那些提供持续竞争优势、拥有坚如磐石的管理团队的企业。由于巴菲特在资金管理方面取得的巨大成功，专业投资者和普通投资者都倾向于参考他的投资策略。投资者可以通过伯克希尔哈撒韦向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交的季度持仓报告(13F)来了解巴菲特的买卖情况。但有的时候，没有采取行动才是最能说明问题的。手握1680亿美元现金大约一个月前，伯克希尔哈撒韦布了2023年第四季度业绩。该公司Q4营业利润较上年同期增长约65亿美元，至374亿美元。虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦最为人所知的可能是其价值3760亿美元的投资组合，其中包括45只股票和两只指数基金，但该公司还拥有大约50家企业的股权，如保险公司GEICO和铁路公司BNSF。值得注意的是，在过去的五个季度(从2022年10月1日开始)中，巴菲特和他的投资“副手”泰德·韦施勒和托德·库姆斯一直是股票的净卖家。换句话说，在过去15个月里，他们卖出的股票超过了买入的股票，总计接近390亿美元。从经营中获得正现金流，再加上一直是股票的净卖家，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的现金储备膨胀至1676亿美元的历史最高水平。一般来说，手头拥有大量现金，为大多数企业提供了在创新、资本回报和收购方面令人羡慕的财务灵活性。但伯克希尔哈撒韦公司并不是一家普通的公司。几十年来，巴菲特和他的团队一直指望用伯克希尔的资本来补充营业利润的增长，并推动投资收益。简而言之，快速增长的现金储备表明，巴菲特没有找到任何值得投资的公司。他不愿将公司的资本投入使用，这是一个无声的警告，投资者不应忽视。美股估值处于历史高位尽管巴菲特声称永远不会做空美国，但伯克希尔不断增长的现金储备表明，如果估值不合适，他也不会押注股票。虽然华尔街不乏分析估值的方法，但标普500指数的席勒市盈率(P/E)，也被称为周期调整市盈率(CAPE)，是最好的方法之一。席勒市盈率不像传统市盈率那样使用过去12个月的收益，而是基于过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。经通胀调整后的收益剔除了可能影响传统估值分析的一次性事件，如新冠疫情。回溯至1871年，标普500指数的席勒市盈率平均为17.1倍，不算高。截至2024年3月20日收盘，标普500指数的席勒市盈率略低于35倍。这是牛市期间最高的倍数之一。纵观历史，每当席勒市盈率超过30倍并长时间保持这一水平时，股市面临下跌风险。自1871年起，道琼斯工业平均指数或标普500指数曾出现过五次这样的情况，最终股市都下跌了20%至89%。不过，席勒市盈率并不是一个择时工具。例如，1997年至2001年间，该指标有4年时间保持在30以上，之后互联网泡沫重创了估值较高的成长型股票。现在席勒市盈率接近35并不意味着股市很快就会出现下跌。但历史确实表明，熊市终将到来。巴菲特在最近致股东的年度信中表示：“不管出于什么原因，现在的市场表现出比我年轻时更像赌场的行为。”一位著名投资者将股市形容为“赌场”，这表明目前很难找到价值。耐心和远见永远胜过市场时机尽管巴菲特对华尔街的“赌场”特征直言不讳，但他曾多次明确表示永远不会做空美国。巴菲特比大多数投资者更明白，耐心和远见远比试图把握股票的短期走势重要得多。例如，经济放缓和衰退是经济周期的正常组成部分。自第二次世界大战结束以来，美国经历了12次经济衰退，其中9次在不到一年的时间里就得到解决。其余3次均未超过18个月。相比之下，大多数增长期都能持续数年，有2次增长时间超过了10年大关。这种经济扩张和衰退持续时间的不平衡在股市上也很明显。虽然股市不能反映美国经济的表现，但企业盈利通常会随着经济的健康状况而起伏。Bespoke的数据显示，熊市平均持续286个日历日，约为9.5个月。另一方面，在过去94年里，典型的牛市持续了1,011个日历日，大约是熊市平均时间的3.5倍。事实上，在Bespoke研究的27次牛市中，有13次的持续时间比最长的熊市还要长。The 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