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伽利智

伽利智

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2022-01-17

用数据说话根据usgs最新评估汤加火山喷发仅为VEI5级下限距离营销号6级还差十个数量级以上又因为是海底火山喷发物的量还不如2020年的火山故不会影响全球气候农作物等更需关注汤加本地灾情@风云梦远：目前观测估计是100Kt（参考：2020Taal是200Kt，皮纳图博20Mt） [web_link-http://t.cn/A6JimmHf]网页链接

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-01

数字还带变动的坑人啊

蔚来：10月交付3667辆汽车，同比下降27.5%

2021-03-02

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 您将如闪电般归来！

2021-01-15

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$我准备把b站拿到传给孙子[开心] [开心]

2020-12-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$见证历史的虎友请留下你们的足迹！

2020-08-17

$赫克拉矿业(HL)$都去跟老巴买去了这个票人气被抢了哈哈

2020-08-13

这就离谱

“最后的绝佳买入机会”！专家：黄金在疯狂涨向1.5万美元之前，恐先跌至这一水平

2020-08-06

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 一路碾压😅😅

2020-08-03

$苹果(AAPL)$接着奏乐，接着舞！

2020-07-31

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 涨，就嗯涨

2020-07-24

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$做了这么多年美股，虽然赚了钱但看到今天中美两个市场的表现我心里实在是难受。大a你什么时候能站起来？为什么要被消息吓到趴窝！只能说有些人不配当中国人！

2020-07-14

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$经典v斯达克

2020-07-08

$蔚来(NIO)$天天挣3万十天一台蔚来，这日子没治了，舒坦！这谁顶得住啊[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2020-07-03

$美团点评-W(03690)$怎么越来越涨，机构猎杀者这个小丑就越不出来表演了？

2020-06-23

狗屁不通

B站的微博化之路

2020-06-16

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$持有b站两年的集合了，点个赞再走！

2020-06-10

$切萨皮克能源(CHK)$哪儿的黄土不埋人啊[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]

2020-05-19

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$目标56！冲刺！

2020-05-04

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$奔涌吧，后浪！

2020-03-12

$波音(BA)$$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$$阿里巴巴(BABA)$特$特斯拉(TSLA)$他妈的，谁能想到波音直接来了波5折大甩卖🤪🤪🤪

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>见证历史的虎友请留下你们的足迹！","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$见证历史的虎友请留下你们的足迹！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397476740","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3489542956853100","authorId":"3489542956853100","name":"期权我就看看","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51ccadd35dd38328efbbd9d4c7c9fb33","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3489542956853100","idStr":"3489542956853100"},"content":"我在跌到630那个位置补仓了几手call玩玩","text":"我在跌到630那个位置补仓了几手call玩玩","html":"我在跌到630那个位置补仓了几手call玩玩"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":970355169,"gmtCreate":1597674874251,"gmtModify":1704216280645,"author":{"id":"3490945088172197","authorId":"3490945088172197","name":"伽利智","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa4d729541812aa17201e1678108048","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3490945088172197","idStr":"3490945088172197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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这个票人气被抢了哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970355169","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":947645878,"gmtCreate":1597323057894,"gmtModify":1704215351183,"author":{"id":"3490945088172197","authorId":"3490945088172197","name":"伽利智","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa4d729541812aa17201e1678108048","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3490945088172197","idStr":"3490945088172197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这就离谱","listText":"这就离谱","text":"这就离谱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/947645878","repostId":"2059297635","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2059297635","pubTimestamp":1597321440,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2059297635?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-13 20:24","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"“最后的绝佳买入机会”！专家：黄金在疯狂涨向1.5万美元之前，恐先跌至这一水平","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2059297635","media":"FX168","summary":"FX168财经报社(香港)讯 近日，黄金从夏季的大幅上涨中急剧回落，周二，金价一度跌破每盎司1900美元，随后试图反弹。但Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates管理合伙人Leigh Goehring认为，金价的回调可能还没有结束...","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div><p>FX168财经报社(香港)讯 近日，黄金从夏季的大幅上涨中急剧回落，周二，金价一度跌破每盎司1900美元，随后试图反弹。但Goehring &amp; Rozencwajg Associates管理合伙人Leigh Goehring认为，金价的回调可能还没有结束。他不排除今年金价达到1,500-1,700美元的可能性。</p><p>由于金价在极短时间内以令人难以置信的速度上涨，市场普遍预期金价会出现修正性回调。在不到三周的时间里，金价成功突破了2011年的高点1920美元，并趁势突破了2000美元，创下了2050美元以上的历史新高。</p><p><strong>金价回调似乎有一定的力量支撑，金价今年可能会跌至1,700美元甚至1,500美元，然后逆转跌势，在2,000美元上方触及新的纪录高位。</strong></p><p>Goehring周二对Kitco News表示，<strong>在价格下跌时，前景决定一切，并指出黄金这次回调可能是“最后一次极好的买入机会”。</strong></p><p>Goehring说：“由于对COVID-19大流行的担忧迅速消退，黄金价格可能会继续回落。在牛市行情中这样的走势并不少见。这波牛市从1050美元开始，最高达到2050美元上方。如果要回吐50%，就必须把黄金的价格拉回到1,500美元到1,700美元之间，白银的价格低于20美元”</p><p>Goehring表示，<strong>价格的大幅下跌可能在今年或2021年初的任何时候出现。“从那时起，黄金牛市将变得疯狂。”</strong></p><p>黄金市场目前正处于牛市的第二阶段，Goehring解释称，“黄金牛市始于1999-2001年，当时金价为每盎司250美元。金价在2011年达到1920美元的峰值，之后回落了45%，之后又一路攀升，并在今年创下新高。”</p><p>随着今年晚些时候经济开始走强，以及更多的人重返工作岗位，那些因担心COVID-19而买进黄金的人将会卖出黄金。</p><p><strong>Goehring说：“到今年年底，黄金价格会比现在更低。这将是一个巨大的买入机会，因为我坚信黄金下一阶段的推动因素将不是COVID-19担忧，而是通胀问题。因此，等待未来几个月，利用这次回调中你看到的任何走弱来积累。”</strong></p><p><font color=\"#ff0000\"><strong>至于下一次反弹会把黄金带到多高？Goehring预计，到本世纪末，金价将攀升至每盎司1.5万美元的高点。</strong></font></p><p>Goehring解释称：“根据我们的研究，黄金交易的规模通常与美联储的资产负债表相当。使用这种类型的分析——未偿还黄金的数量，特别是美国政府持有的黄金数量，相对于美联储资产负债表的规模，你可以得到1万到2万美元。我们的目标是1万到1.5万美元之间。这将在未来十年的末期——2027-28年发生。”</p><p>Goehring说，推动黄金达到上述水平的主要推动因素之一将是通胀。</p><p>Goehring指出<strong>：“黄金市场向我们发出警告，我们经历了40年的通缩环境即将结束，一个包括通胀在内的新时代即将到来。”</strong></p><p>今年夏天的黄金涨势向投资者发出了一个明确的信息：金融格局正在发生变化，通胀和货币贬值现在将成为其中的一部分。</p><p>警告称：“通胀通常会受到黑天鹅事件的驱动。可能是美元走软，也可能是从大宗商品通胀开始。它可能突然冒出来，引发难以控制的通胀问题。”</p><p>该合伙人将上世纪70年代和今天做了一个有趣的比较。他说：“在20世纪60年代末和70年代初，由于越南战争和庞大的政府开支，大量信贷被创造出来。这就像在森林的地面上放置火绒，等待火星点燃。今天我们做了同样的事情，大规模扩张了货币和财政政策。地上有大量的易燃物，它所需要的是一个火花，将会像它在70年代那样着火。”</p><p>美国和其他国家政府印刷的货币越多，债务展期就越难，尤其是在通货膨胀开始加速的情况下。</p><p>Goehring表示：“随着债券市场开始纳入更长时间的通胀预期，最终将影响美国政府的财政，这将带来一系列新问题。人们将更加关注美国政府的财政状况。”</p><p>考虑到所有这些因素，多数投资者将把黄金视为解决方案。Goehring指出：“仔细想想，几乎所有的金融资产都是别人的负债，包括所有未偿还的债券。黄金将被视为一种金融资产，而不是别人的负债。而这本身将成为这个全球市场的另一个巨大驱动力。”</p><p>在接下来的几年里，Goehring认为牛市的下一个阶段将真正成型。Goehring说：“(会有)大量的投机和过度投机的兴趣。”</p><p><strong>这一次，西方投资者也将发挥关键作用，此前他们基本上没有参与投资。</strong></p><p>他说：“黄金牛市的第一站几乎完全是由东方投资者推动的。中国投资者和印度投资者意识到黄金作为一种资产类别是非常便宜的。从2000年到2008年，由于各国央行在抛售黄金，大多数西方对冲基金都在做空黄金。这将西方投资者拒之门外。在这段牛市中，没有央行抛售，实际上央行是买家。西方大型投资顾问现在也建议人们购买黄金。”</p><p>校对：冷静</p></div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>分享</div>\n<div>\n<div>  </div>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"fxdaily_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“最后的绝佳买入机会”！专家：黄金在疯狂涨向1.5万美元之前，恐先跌至这一水平\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-13 20:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.24k99.com/2008/4097231.shtml><strong>FX168</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>FX168财经报社(香港)讯 近日，黄金从夏季的大幅上涨中急剧回落，周二，金价一度跌破每盎司1900美元，随后试图反弹。但Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates管理合伙人Leigh Goehring认为，金价的回调可能还没有结束。他不排除今年金价达到1,500-1,700美元的可能性。由于金价在极短时间内以令人难以置信的速度上涨，市场普遍预期金价会出现修正性回调。在不到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.24k99.com/2008/4097231.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://www.24k99.com/2008/W020200813633463974783.jpg","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.24k99.com/2008/4097231.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2059297635","content_text":"FX168财经报社(香港)讯 近日，黄金从夏季的大幅上涨中急剧回落，周二，金价一度跌破每盎司1900美元，随后试图反弹。但Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates管理合伙人Leigh Goehring认为，金价的回调可能还没有结束。他不排除今年金价达到1,500-1,700美元的可能性。由于金价在极短时间内以令人难以置信的速度上涨，市场普遍预期金价会出现修正性回调。在不到三周的时间里，金价成功突破了2011年的高点1920美元，并趁势突破了2000美元，创下了2050美元以上的历史新高。金价回调似乎有一定的力量支撑，金价今年可能会跌至1,700美元甚至1,500美元，然后逆转跌势，在2,000美元上方触及新的纪录高位。Goehring周二对Kitco News表示，在价格下跌时，前景决定一切，并指出黄金这次回调可能是“最后一次极好的买入机会”。Goehring说：“由于对COVID-19大流行的担忧迅速消退，黄金价格可能会继续回落。在牛市行情中这样的走势并不少见。这波牛市从1050美元开始，最高达到2050美元上方。如果要回吐50%，就必须把黄金的价格拉回到1,500美元到1,700美元之间，白银的价格低于20美元”Goehring表示，价格的大幅下跌可能在今年或2021年初的任何时候出现。“从那时起，黄金牛市将变得疯狂。”黄金市场目前正处于牛市的第二阶段，Goehring解释称，“黄金牛市始于1999-2001年，当时金价为每盎司250美元。金价在2011年达到1920美元的峰值，之后回落了45%，之后又一路攀升，并在今年创下新高。”随着今年晚些时候经济开始走强，以及更多的人重返工作岗位，那些因担心COVID-19而买进黄金的人将会卖出黄金。Goehring说：“到今年年底，黄金价格会比现在更低。这将是一个巨大的买入机会，因为我坚信黄金下一阶段的推动因素将不是COVID-19担忧，而是通胀问题。因此，等待未来几个月，利用这次回调中你看到的任何走弱来积累。”至于下一次反弹会把黄金带到多高？Goehring预计，到本世纪末，金价将攀升至每盎司1.5万美元的高点。Goehring解释称：“根据我们的研究，黄金交易的规模通常与美联储的资产负债表相当。使用这种类型的分析——未偿还黄金的数量，特别是美国政府持有的黄金数量，相对于美联储资产负债表的规模，你可以得到1万到2万美元。我们的目标是1万到1.5万美元之间。这将在未来十年的末期——2027-28年发生。”Goehring说，推动黄金达到上述水平的主要推动因素之一将是通胀。Goehring指出：“黄金市场向我们发出警告，我们经历了40年的通缩环境即将结束，一个包括通胀在内的新时代即将到来。”今年夏天的黄金涨势向投资者发出了一个明确的信息：金融格局正在发生变化，通胀和货币贬值现在将成为其中的一部分。警告称：“通胀通常会受到黑天鹅事件的驱动。可能是美元走软，也可能是从大宗商品通胀开始。它可能突然冒出来，引发难以控制的通胀问题。”该合伙人将上世纪70年代和今天做了一个有趣的比较。他说：“在20世纪60年代末和70年代初，由于越南战争和庞大的政府开支，大量信贷被创造出来。这就像在森林的地面上放置火绒，等待火星点燃。今天我们做了同样的事情，大规模扩张了货币和财政政策。地上有大量的易燃物，它所需要的是一个火花，将会像它在70年代那样着火。”美国和其他国家政府印刷的货币越多，债务展期就越难，尤其是在通货膨胀开始加速的情况下。Goehring表示：“随着债券市场开始纳入更长时间的通胀预期，最终将影响美国政府的财政，这将带来一系列新问题。人们将更加关注美国政府的财政状况。”考虑到所有这些因素，多数投资者将把黄金视为解决方案。Goehring指出：“仔细想想，几乎所有的金融资产都是别人的负债，包括所有未偿还的债券。黄金将被视为一种金融资产，而不是别人的负债。而这本身将成为这个全球市场的另一个巨大驱动力。”在接下来的几年里，Goehring认为牛市的下一个阶段将真正成型。Goehring说：“(会有)大量的投机和过度投机的兴趣。”这一次，西方投资者也将发挥关键作用，此前他们基本上没有参与投资。他说：“黄金牛市的第一站几乎完全是由东方投资者推动的。中国投资者和印度投资者意识到黄金作为一种资产类别是非常便宜的。从2000年到2008年，由于各国央行在抛售黄金，大多数西方对冲基金都在做空黄金。这将西方投资者拒之门外。在这段牛市中，没有央行抛售，实际上央行是买家。西方大型投资顾问现在也建议人们购买黄金。”校对：冷静\n\n\n分享","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944088259,"gmtCreate":1596716407671,"gmtModify":1704213294972,"author":{"id":"3490945088172197","authorId":"3490945088172197","name":"伽利智","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa4d729541812aa17201e1678108048","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3490945088172197","idStr":"3490945088172197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团点评-W(03690)$</a>怎么越来越涨，机构猎杀者这个小丑就越不出来表演了？&nbsp;","text":"$美团点评-W(03690)$怎么越来越涨，机构猎杀者这个小丑就越不出来表演了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/940857577","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":954638744,"gmtCreate":1592902060488,"gmtModify":1704200506630,"author":{"id":"3490945088172197","authorId":"3490945088172197","name":"伽利智","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa4d729541812aa17201e1678108048","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3490945088172197","idStr":"3490945088172197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"狗屁不通","listText":"狗屁不通","text":"狗屁不通","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/954638744","repostId":"2045354439","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2045354439","pubTimestamp":1592890489,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2045354439?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-23 13:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"B站的微博化之路","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2045354439","media":"和讯网","summary":"编者按：【未来首席，请你发言】第二期：Z世代，谁能抓住这届年轻人的心。本篇稿件来源：李佳钰，19岁，华中师范大学。2019年底，知名主播冯堤莫停播两个月后在微博发声，官宣签约B站，引起轩然大波。冯堤莫","content":"<html><body><article><p>编者按：【未来首席，请你发言】第二期：Z世代，谁能抓住这届年轻人的心。本篇稿件来源：李佳钰，19岁，华中师范大学。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200623133506888v034gz7gmdgfdc8\"/><p>2019年底，知名主播冯堤莫停播两个月后在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>发声，官宣签约B站，引起轩然大波。冯堤莫的入驻打开了B站大规模引进明星的大门。在2020年上半年，一大批明星陆续入驻B站，但这却引起了原生用户的不满，很多原驻居民表示社区氛围变差，疯狂吐槽B站越来越微博化。</p><p>事实上， B站微博化的趋势早在17年就已初见端倪。2017年，B站推出动态功能，开始注重UP主（注：B站上传视频的人）与用户的互动；2018年，B站大刀一挥，一次性下架20多部动漫；2019年，B站更换了标志性封面“干杯”；2020年，饭圈文化进入B站，许多知名UP主宣布停更。</p><p>但与此同时，B站的营收也在不断增长。2018年初B站在美国纳斯达克上市，市值约32亿美元； 18年全年营收为41.3亿，同比增长57%，19年全年营收67.8亿，营收节节攀升。虽然B站的净收入呈指数式增长，但毛利润却增长缓慢，19年净收入几乎高达70亿的时候，毛利润才刚刚突破10亿大关。一直到现在，B站都还在烧钱运营，连续数年都是亏损。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200623133510613v034hngn9czcxmn\"/><p>（数据来源：BILI Annual Report）</p><p>为了扭亏为盈，B站迫切地渴望摘掉自己身上的二次元AVG等标签，成为青年人的代名词。在今年，B站陆续发布了《后浪》《入海》两部影片，其中《后浪》引发了很大的争议，发布之后B站股价上涨5.53%，成为B站名副其实地出圈之作。</p><p>目前，B站的营收模式仍较为单一，主要是游戏业务和大会员，占总收入的80%以上。由于B站的特殊性，不能像其他视频APP一样主要依靠广告收入；在这种困境下，B站穷则思变，不断谋求变革，想要通过“出圈”来摸索出新的营收模式。</p><p>但在许多用户眼中，B站操之过急，许多优质UP离开，或是跳到其他平台，或是永久停更。前不久B站财经领域的台柱子巫师财经与B站告别，更是显出了B站出圈的“隐忧”。B站先前一直奉行的理念用爱发电遭到了很大的冲击与质疑。</p><p>相比之下，与B站同年问世的微博显然在盈利方面更加娴熟，2016圈年净利润1.41亿美元，2018全年净利润5.718亿美元，2019年全年净利润6.38亿美元，从图中可以看出总体上净利润的增长与净营收的增长趋势保持一致。而此时的B站，仍然在烧钱透支，2019全年净亏损13.04亿元。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200623133512158v034ahrfudiw0dj\"/><p>（数据来源：WEIBO Annual Report、中国人民银行）</p><p>从历年财报来看，微博的主要盈利点在于广告，2019年广告业务为微博带来15.3亿美元的营收。但B站曾承诺“永远不在视频前插播广告”，仅靠APP启动首页的广告根本无法支撑B站。内容方面，微博更偏向于爱豆流量，而B站更看重优质内容；这点从B站引入大量明星后他们的粉丝数就可以看出，许多明星的粉丝远远不及优质内容UP主。但B站在引入明星之后必然要给其大量的曝光，这样一来，新人UP和许多优质内容很容易就被尘封，原生用户和新用户之间必然有一场资源争夺战。</p><p>不管是微博还是B站，互联网企业最主要的任务就是争夺用户时间，而互联网时代的主力军是10-29岁的网民（占我国网民的40.8%），也就是我们通常所说的Z时代（注：指在1995-2009年间出生的一代人）。1994年，我国正式接入国际互联网，从传统互联网到移动互联网，Z时代与其同生共长，见证了中国互联网的发展历程。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200623133512737v0348221fc0rf8e\"/><p>（数据来源：中国互联网络信息中心(CNNIC)）</p><p>要想在Z时代异军突起，就要抓住用户的喜好。从各大视频APP的数据分析看，目前B站以微弱的优势领先，但仍面临着较大威胁。字节跳动来势汹汹，自制综艺层出不穷。韩剧一直保持着较高的用户占比，短视频APP也后来居上，两者与B站的差距仅仅10%左右；B站明显是有了危机意识，所以才会在2020启动出圈计划，疯狂“微博化”。但B站在出圈的同时应注重考虑用户粘合度，不能猛进长驱。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200623133513946v034udj73kxnwl7\"/><p>（图表来源：QuestMobile）</p><p>微博的成功固然值得借鉴，但B站由于特殊的社区氛围也许并不适合朝着微博的方向发展。</p><p>古人云，破而后立，任何一件事物的发展都必然要打破固有的模式、经过不断的磨合。相信B站在经过不断地试水后能找到自己的发展方向，真正在Z时代占有一席之地。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200623133514689v034rafglu6kyvm\"/><p>参考资料：</p><p>1. BiliBili Investor Home</p><p>2. Weibo IR Home</p><p>3. 维基百科、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">老虎证券</a></p><p>4. BILI Annual Report 2019</p><p>5. WEIBO Annual Report 2019</p><p>6. 中国人民银行官网，中国外汇交易中心受权公布人民币汇率中间价公告</p><p>7. 中国互联网络信息中心(CNNIC)，第44次中国互联网络发展状况统计报告.2019-8-30</p><p>8. QuestMobile Z世代洞察报告.2018-12-19</p><p>（责任编辑：邵晓慧 ）</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>B站的微博化之路</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nB站的微博化之路\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-23 13:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202006231335157a83b533&s=b><strong>和讯网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>编者按：【未来首席，请你发言】第二期：Z世代，谁能抓住这届年轻人的心。本篇稿件来源：李佳钰，19岁，华中师范大学。2019年底，知名主播冯堤莫停播两个月后在微博发声，官宣签约B站，引起轩然大波。冯堤莫的入驻打开了B站大规模引进明星的大门。在2020年上半年，一大批明星陆续入驻B站，但这却引起了原生用户的不满，很多原驻居民表示社区氛围变差，疯狂吐槽B站越来越微博化。事实上， B站微博化的趋势早在17...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202006231335157a83b533&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175fbf5f75752267f2ac52ba7750f15a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202006231335157a83b533&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2045354439","content_text":"编者按：【未来首席，请你发言】第二期：Z世代，谁能抓住这届年轻人的心。本篇稿件来源：李佳钰，19岁，华中师范大学。2019年底，知名主播冯堤莫停播两个月后在微博发声，官宣签约B站，引起轩然大波。冯堤莫的入驻打开了B站大规模引进明星的大门。在2020年上半年，一大批明星陆续入驻B站，但这却引起了原生用户的不满，很多原驻居民表示社区氛围变差，疯狂吐槽B站越来越微博化。事实上， B站微博化的趋势早在17年就已初见端倪。2017年，B站推出动态功能，开始注重UP主（注：B站上传视频的人）与用户的互动；2018年，B站大刀一挥，一次性下架20多部动漫；2019年，B站更换了标志性封面“干杯”；2020年，饭圈文化进入B站，许多知名UP主宣布停更。但与此同时，B站的营收也在不断增长。2018年初B站在美国纳斯达克上市，市值约32亿美元； 18年全年营收为41.3亿，同比增长57%，19年全年营收67.8亿，营收节节攀升。虽然B站的净收入呈指数式增长，但毛利润却增长缓慢，19年净收入几乎高达70亿的时候，毛利润才刚刚突破10亿大关。一直到现在，B站都还在烧钱运营，连续数年都是亏损。（数据来源：BILI Annual Report）为了扭亏为盈，B站迫切地渴望摘掉自己身上的二次元AVG等标签，成为青年人的代名词。在今年，B站陆续发布了《后浪》《入海》两部影片，其中《后浪》引发了很大的争议，发布之后B站股价上涨5.53%，成为B站名副其实地出圈之作。目前，B站的营收模式仍较为单一，主要是游戏业务和大会员，占总收入的80%以上。由于B站的特殊性，不能像其他视频APP一样主要依靠广告收入；在这种困境下，B站穷则思变，不断谋求变革，想要通过“出圈”来摸索出新的营收模式。但在许多用户眼中，B站操之过急，许多优质UP离开，或是跳到其他平台，或是永久停更。前不久B站财经领域的台柱子巫师财经与B站告别，更是显出了B站出圈的“隐忧”。B站先前一直奉行的理念用爱发电遭到了很大的冲击与质疑。相比之下，与B站同年问世的微博显然在盈利方面更加娴熟，2016圈年净利润1.41亿美元，2018全年净利润5.718亿美元，2019年全年净利润6.38亿美元，从图中可以看出总体上净利润的增长与净营收的增长趋势保持一致。而此时的B站，仍然在烧钱透支，2019全年净亏损13.04亿元。（数据来源：WEIBO Annual Report、中国人民银行）从历年财报来看，微博的主要盈利点在于广告，2019年广告业务为微博带来15.3亿美元的营收。但B站曾承诺“永远不在视频前插播广告”，仅靠APP启动首页的广告根本无法支撑B站。内容方面，微博更偏向于爱豆流量，而B站更看重优质内容；这点从B站引入大量明星后他们的粉丝数就可以看出，许多明星的粉丝远远不及优质内容UP主。但B站在引入明星之后必然要给其大量的曝光，这样一来，新人UP和许多优质内容很容易就被尘封，原生用户和新用户之间必然有一场资源争夺战。不管是微博还是B站，互联网企业最主要的任务就是争夺用户时间，而互联网时代的主力军是10-29岁的网民（占我国网民的40.8%），也就是我们通常所说的Z时代（注：指在1995-2009年间出生的一代人）。1994年，我国正式接入国际互联网，从传统互联网到移动互联网，Z时代与其同生共长，见证了中国互联网的发展历程。（数据来源：中国互联网络信息中心(CNNIC)）要想在Z时代异军突起，就要抓住用户的喜好。从各大视频APP的数据分析看，目前B站以微弱的优势领先，但仍面临着较大威胁。字节跳动来势汹汹，自制综艺层出不穷。韩剧一直保持着较高的用户占比，短视频APP也后来居上，两者与B站的差距仅仅10%左右；B站明显是有了危机意识，所以才会在2020启动出圈计划，疯狂“微博化”。但B站在出圈的同时应注重考虑用户粘合度，不能猛进长驱。（图表来源：QuestMobile）微博的成功固然值得借鉴，但B站由于特殊的社区氛围也许并不适合朝着微博的方向发展。古人云，破而后立，任何一件事物的发展都必然要打破固有的模式、经过不断的磨合。相信B站在经过不断地试水后能找到自己的发展方向，真正在Z时代占有一席之地。参考资料：1. BiliBili Investor Home2. Weibo IR Home3. 维基百科、老虎证券4. BILI Annual Report 20195. WEIBO Annual Report 20196. 中国人民银行官网，中国外汇交易中心受权公布人民币汇率中间价公告7. 中国互联网络信息中心(CNNIC)，第44次中国互联网络发展状况统计报告.2019-8-308. 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19:41","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"汤加火山爆发震动全球，“无夏之年”会来吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152693258","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"大幅降温近在咫尺？农业&能源站在风暴第一线。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：朱雪莹</p><p>人类的命运，从来都是大自然的掌中之物。</p><p>1257年，印尼林贾尼火山爆发，史上最强烈喷发让巨量火山灰遮天蔽日，次年南宋史书上有载：“西湖冰合”。</p><p>气温骤降之下，粮食绝收牲畜锐减。蒙古大军因此挥师南下横扫中原，偏安一隅的南宋王朝从此消失在历史的车轮下。</p><p>1644年，“小冰河期”致使全球气温大幅降低，明朝陷入粮食歉收—人口减少—社会动荡的恶性循环之中，清朝铁骑纵深南下取而代之。</p><p>1815年，印尼坦博拉火山爆发，连续百日喷薄而出的岩浆让火山灰遮住天光，隔年全球便进入“无夏之年”。</p><p>欧亚大陆因此陷入水深火热之中，食物匮乏疫病横行，数十万欧洲人没能给挺过严寒的冬天。不少人远渡重洋奔赴彼岸的美国，然而在他们重启生活的同时也打开了原住民的潘多拉魔盒。</p><p>大自然挥斥方遒，点到之处皆现动荡。而人类命运环环相扣，所有人都身处其中。</p><p>这次万里之外的岛国汤加，就凭借着火山喷发让全世界为之震动。</p><p>从可能造成的影响来看，我们应该庆幸这次火山喷发是在人烟稀少的南半球太平洋。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2603fa8e9678911f814657c508f41a\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa1b3639b1775455eb975d25bb85eca8\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>拍摄于15日大爆发前的汤加火山喷发云团里的闪电</p><p>1月14日，汤加洪阿哈阿帕伊岛附近海底火山发生剧烈喷发，大量气体形成巨大蘑菇云，瞬间穿透对流层。据weathermodels网站估算，喷发高度至少25公里。</p><p>1月15日，据新华社消息，该火山再度剧烈喷发。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a59f8bc07272fb900d670ebaae8aef\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f882bcb87f042f040a9b4ef0951fb82c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"1145\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>气候学爱好者等风撰文表示，1月14日蘑菇云团顶直径达到了大概400-500公里，高度大概有19到30公里。鉴于上海到合肥的距离为410公里，如果此座水下火山位于太湖，那么整个长江三角洲都将是火山灰的覆盖范围。</p><p>而如果用火山爆发指数（Volcanic Explosivity Index，简称VEI）来衡量此次喷发，有专家预计此次已经达到了VEI-6级，而上一次同样等级的爆发还是在1991年的菲律宾皮纳图博火山。爆发之后两年地球进入了“无夏之年” ，全球平均温度明显下降。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8510973508e33877b2a5bc11a7d4320f\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"940\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>短期影响：骤然显现</p><p>汤加作为此次的“震中”，受到的冲击目前还难以估计。</p><p>但是从遥感数据来看，火山所在的洪阿哈啊帕伊岛已经基本沉入海底。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e235c998852c0c5ed67f16ec4db0d004\" tg-width=\"378\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>再者，汤加主要人口虽集中在65公里外的塔布岛上，暂无生命之忧，但是主岛还是遭到了明显破坏。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d83618877d7b8ab38c4964b6226eb19\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d26206fd087592d204b3a8957e757dd5\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"960\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>而且据《新西兰先驱报》报道，有当地人表示，火山灰蔓延致使空气中存在“毒气”，当地水源已无法饮用。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1143b40d4c746d1652ec263ac4cc11f1\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>除了汤加，周边国家也难以放松警惕。</p><p>虽然海底火山喷发不会造成最为致命的熔岩流和碎屑流，但是引发的巨大海啸已经横跨太平洋。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfda4dd850eec01c6e3b22e191efd3c1\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>包括美国、日本、斐济、萨摩亚、新西兰、加拿大、智利在内多国均已发布海啸警报。</p><p>同时据美国国家气象局称，汤加火山喷发在美国西海岸掀起三四英尺（1英尺约为0.3米）的海浪，最高则达7英尺。</p><p><b>通常来说，50CM的海啸高度已经不容小觑，超过1米的海啸更是极为危险。</b></p><p>中期影响：延续数月</p><p>海底火山不仅会造成海啸，大量火山灰喷向空中将直接打击当地航空业。</p><p>最近的实例就是2010年冰岛火山喷发，大量火山灰喷发致使半数欧洲航线全军覆没。</p><p>这是因为火山灰的主要成分是二氧化硅，在空中与飞机相遇后会造成发动机阻塞、熄火并引发事故，而目前航空业主力的喷气式飞机更易受到干扰。</p><p>而参照同样为VEI-6级喷发的皮纳图博火山，它当时直接向平流层中喷射了约2000万吨二氧化硫。所以如若汤加火山和它程度相似，大洋洲航空业在未来3-6个月都将受到冲击。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cc093a30ddc3686c0f146a81558731e\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>全球主要航线图，灰色为大致影响范围</p><p>参考最新的火山灰信息来看，波利尼西亚西部和澳洲东北沿海已经受到影响，甚至东亚-东南亚往返澳洲的航班都将受到影响，截止17日已经有大量航班取消。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f7bfc84040c981226b0a69a3f6148c1\" tg-width=\"1127\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>遭此一击，疫情之下原本就脆弱的航空业更是雪上加霜。</p><p>长期影响：农业&amp;能源站在风暴第一线？</p><p>短期影响持续数日，中期影响最多数月，然而长期影响甚至会伴随数年。</p><p>经过周末两天的发酵之后，现在最让外界忧心的问题是，<b>接下来是否也会出现“无夏之年”？</b></p><p><b>1. 不会？</b></p><p>有气候专家表示，上次出现“无夏之年”的一大原因，是皮纳图博火山40公里喷发高度，造成太阳辐射量减少约10%，全球平均温度因此下降0.5摄氏度。</p><p>但相比之下，<b>此次汤加火山喷发高度不足30公里，输送到平流层的火山灰不足以影响到全球气候。所以造成的太阳辐射影响量也应不足10%，全球平均气温最多会出现0-0.2摄氏度左右的变动。</b></p><p>此外，全球主要经济体均位于北半球，所以上次无奈直面菲律宾皮纳图博火山带来的冲击。<b>然而此次汤加火山位于南半球，所以北半球气候的影响应有所减小，“无夏之年”出现的概率较低。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a1050c59bbad9dcea154796fe3fa5a\" tg-width=\"695\" tg-height=\"1275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2. 会？</b></p><p>然而就像上一张图片里论述的观点，<b>全球气温不被直接干预的前提是——若后续无大规模喷发。</b></p><p><b>如果汤加火山后续仍旧持续喷发，那么伴随着大量火山灰进入平流层并向全球蔓延，2022年北半球阶段性寒冷等强对流天气或将显著增加。</b></p><p>中国气象局预告称，从本月20日起，我国中东部地区将自西向东有一次明显雨雪过程。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9e3d74a5dbe120ffd1db2b39f740fc2\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>此外据新华社报道，新西兰奥克兰大学教授沙恩·克罗宁在16日表示，此次喷发的多种迹象表明，<b>事发地火山口已苏醒，喷发活跃期可持续数周甚至数年，目前尚不清楚是否已经达到喷发的峰值。</b></p><p>如果不幸一语成谶，那么农业生产可能会重现历史，再一次站在风暴的最前线。</p><p>按照申银万国期货宏观金融研究的观点，历史上火山喷发造成的气温下降，在夏季尤为明显。</p><p><b>所以现在要格外关注今明两年夏季农作物主产区的积温情况，积温充足与否将直接影响春播和夏粮生产。再叠加拉尼娜现象造成的北半球夏季低温多雨，如果积温不足，那么春播作物和果蔬类将容易出现减产。</b></p><p>而除了农业之外，能源行业受到的影响也不容小觑。</p><p>以欧洲为例。欧洲去年之所以会出现“能源危机”，低温造成的需求爆棚是关键原因。再加上“减碳”大方针之下，欧洲的新能源和天然气并不能满足骤增的能源需求。</p><p><b>所以如果2022年继续出现极端低温天气，那么全球新能源转型或将受到较大影响，传统能源价格将得到有力支撑。</b></p><p>总之，岛国看似万里之外，但造成的影响却近在咫尺。蝴蝶效应之下，全球休戚与共。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>汤加火山爆发震动全球，“无夏之年”会来吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n汤加火山爆发震动全球，“无夏之年”会来吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-17 19:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3649886><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：朱雪莹人类的命运，从来都是大自然的掌中之物。1257年，印尼林贾尼火山爆发，史上最强烈喷发让巨量火山灰遮天蔽日，次年南宋史书上有载：“西湖冰合”。气温骤降之下，粮食绝收牲畜锐减。蒙古大军因此挥师南下横扫中原，偏安一隅的南宋王朝从此消失在历史的车轮下。1644年，“小冰河期”致使全球气温大幅降低，明朝陷入粮食歉收—人口减少—社会动荡的恶性循环之中，清朝铁骑纵深南下取而代之。1815年，印尼坦...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3649886\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d1704ee5436fe10a72dc0591ae7fce","relate_stocks":{"RJI":"商品指数ETF-ELEMENTS"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3649886","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1152693258","content_text":"作者：朱雪莹人类的命运，从来都是大自然的掌中之物。1257年，印尼林贾尼火山爆发，史上最强烈喷发让巨量火山灰遮天蔽日，次年南宋史书上有载：“西湖冰合”。气温骤降之下，粮食绝收牲畜锐减。蒙古大军因此挥师南下横扫中原，偏安一隅的南宋王朝从此消失在历史的车轮下。1644年，“小冰河期”致使全球气温大幅降低，明朝陷入粮食歉收—人口减少—社会动荡的恶性循环之中，清朝铁骑纵深南下取而代之。1815年，印尼坦博拉火山爆发，连续百日喷薄而出的岩浆让火山灰遮住天光，隔年全球便进入“无夏之年”。欧亚大陆因此陷入水深火热之中，食物匮乏疫病横行，数十万欧洲人没能给挺过严寒的冬天。不少人远渡重洋奔赴彼岸的美国，然而在他们重启生活的同时也打开了原住民的潘多拉魔盒。大自然挥斥方遒，点到之处皆现动荡。而人类命运环环相扣，所有人都身处其中。这次万里之外的岛国汤加，就凭借着火山喷发让全世界为之震动。从可能造成的影响来看，我们应该庆幸这次火山喷发是在人烟稀少的南半球太平洋。拍摄于15日大爆发前的汤加火山喷发云团里的闪电1月14日，汤加洪阿哈阿帕伊岛附近海底火山发生剧烈喷发，大量气体形成巨大蘑菇云，瞬间穿透对流层。据weathermodels网站估算，喷发高度至少25公里。1月15日，据新华社消息，该火山再度剧烈喷发。气候学爱好者等风撰文表示，1月14日蘑菇云团顶直径达到了大概400-500公里，高度大概有19到30公里。鉴于上海到合肥的距离为410公里，如果此座水下火山位于太湖，那么整个长江三角洲都将是火山灰的覆盖范围。而如果用火山爆发指数（Volcanic Explosivity Index，简称VEI）来衡量此次喷发，有专家预计此次已经达到了VEI-6级，而上一次同样等级的爆发还是在1991年的菲律宾皮纳图博火山。爆发之后两年地球进入了“无夏之年” ，全球平均温度明显下降。短期影响：骤然显现汤加作为此次的“震中”，受到的冲击目前还难以估计。但是从遥感数据来看，火山所在的洪阿哈啊帕伊岛已经基本沉入海底。再者，汤加主要人口虽集中在65公里外的塔布岛上，暂无生命之忧，但是主岛还是遭到了明显破坏。而且据《新西兰先驱报》报道，有当地人表示，火山灰蔓延致使空气中存在“毒气”，当地水源已无法饮用。除了汤加，周边国家也难以放松警惕。虽然海底火山喷发不会造成最为致命的熔岩流和碎屑流，但是引发的巨大海啸已经横跨太平洋。包括美国、日本、斐济、萨摩亚、新西兰、加拿大、智利在内多国均已发布海啸警报。同时据美国国家气象局称，汤加火山喷发在美国西海岸掀起三四英尺（1英尺约为0.3米）的海浪，最高则达7英尺。通常来说，50CM的海啸高度已经不容小觑，超过1米的海啸更是极为危险。中期影响：延续数月海底火山不仅会造成海啸，大量火山灰喷向空中将直接打击当地航空业。最近的实例就是2010年冰岛火山喷发，大量火山灰喷发致使半数欧洲航线全军覆没。这是因为火山灰的主要成分是二氧化硅，在空中与飞机相遇后会造成发动机阻塞、熄火并引发事故，而目前航空业主力的喷气式飞机更易受到干扰。而参照同样为VEI-6级喷发的皮纳图博火山，它当时直接向平流层中喷射了约2000万吨二氧化硫。所以如若汤加火山和它程度相似，大洋洲航空业在未来3-6个月都将受到冲击。全球主要航线图，灰色为大致影响范围参考最新的火山灰信息来看，波利尼西亚西部和澳洲东北沿海已经受到影响，甚至东亚-东南亚往返澳洲的航班都将受到影响，截止17日已经有大量航班取消。遭此一击，疫情之下原本就脆弱的航空业更是雪上加霜。长期影响：农业&能源站在风暴第一线？短期影响持续数日，中期影响最多数月，然而长期影响甚至会伴随数年。经过周末两天的发酵之后，现在最让外界忧心的问题是，接下来是否也会出现“无夏之年”？1. 不会？有气候专家表示，上次出现“无夏之年”的一大原因，是皮纳图博火山40公里喷发高度，造成太阳辐射量减少约10%，全球平均温度因此下降0.5摄氏度。但相比之下，此次汤加火山喷发高度不足30公里，输送到平流层的火山灰不足以影响到全球气候。所以造成的太阳辐射影响量也应不足10%，全球平均气温最多会出现0-0.2摄氏度左右的变动。此外，全球主要经济体均位于北半球，所以上次无奈直面菲律宾皮纳图博火山带来的冲击。然而此次汤加火山位于南半球，所以北半球气候的影响应有所减小，“无夏之年”出现的概率较低。2. 会？然而就像上一张图片里论述的观点，全球气温不被直接干预的前提是——若后续无大规模喷发。如果汤加火山后续仍旧持续喷发，那么伴随着大量火山灰进入平流层并向全球蔓延，2022年北半球阶段性寒冷等强对流天气或将显著增加。中国气象局预告称，从本月20日起，我国中东部地区将自西向东有一次明显雨雪过程。此外据新华社报道，新西兰奥克兰大学教授沙恩·克罗宁在16日表示，此次喷发的多种迹象表明，事发地火山口已苏醒，喷发活跃期可持续数周甚至数年，目前尚不清楚是否已经达到喷发的峰值。如果不幸一语成谶，那么农业生产可能会重现历史，再一次站在风暴的最前线。按照申银万国期货宏观金融研究的观点，历史上火山喷发造成的气温下降，在夏季尤为明显。所以现在要格外关注今明两年夏季农作物主产区的积温情况，积温充足与否将直接影响春播和夏粮生产。再叠加拉尼娜现象造成的北半球夏季低温多雨，如果积温不足，那么春播作物和果蔬类将容易出现减产。而除了农业之外，能源行业受到的影响也不容小觑。以欧洲为例。欧洲去年之所以会出现“能源危机”，低温造成的需求爆棚是关键原因。再加上“减碳”大方针之下，欧洲的新能源和天然气并不能满足骤增的能源需求。所以如果2022年继续出现极端低温天气，那么全球新能源转型或将受到较大影响，传统能源价格将得到有力支撑。总之，岛国看似万里之外，但造成的影响却近在咫尺。蝴蝶效应之下，全球休戚与共。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":949884190,"gmtCreate":1594215311110,"gmtModify":1704204444652,"author":{"id":"3490945088172197","authorId":"3490945088172197","name":"伽利智","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa4d729541812aa17201e1678108048","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490945088172197","authorIdStr":"3490945088172197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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