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专注着爱自由

专注着爱自由

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专注着爱自由

05-02

耍猴

美联储：迟来的降息还要多久？

专注着爱自由

2022-06-10

直接参考保罗的手段，加息至20%以上，看cpi降不降

盘前观察：CPI超预期爆表，美联储已经毫无办法？

专注着爱自由

2020-06-01

$道琼斯(.DJI)$这样豆还能涨，牛批！疫情和抗议活动完全不顶用啊

专注着爱自由

2020-04-21

$道琼斯(.DJI)$今晚会不会熔断？

专注着爱自由

2020-04-13

$道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares(SDOW)$美股熔断吧，我满仓干了！

专注着爱自由

2020-04-10

哈哈哈，老子3倍做空！这周一直亏，熔断吧！$道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares(SDOW)$

没有协议！OPEC+减产谈判因墨西哥抵制破裂，谁来减产？

专注着爱自由

2020-04-09

卧槽，这也太不要脸了吧，强行助推股市

美联储宣布新行动，提供2.3万亿美元市政和企业援助

专注着爱自由

2020-04-02

$映客(03700)$毛票，圈钱的陷阱

专注着爱自由

2019-09-27

$百度(BIDU)$卧槽，怎么突然砸盘

专注着爱自由

2019-09-26

$百度(BIDU)$百度在u型底部了，加上无人车落地，股价得往上涨了

专注着爱自由

2019-09-24

$蔚来(NIO)$一年时间，跌成毛票

专注着爱自由

2019-08-06

毛票，[无语][无语][无语][无语][无语]

专注着爱自由

2019-07-18

$斗鱼(DOYU)$今晚先破13

专注着爱自由

2019-07-17

$斗鱼(DOYU)$唉，没中

专注着爱自由

2019-07-16

$斗鱼(DOYU)$是今晚上市吗？

专注着爱自由

2019-04-23

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$可以进场了吗？

专注着爱自由

2019-04-12

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$飞流直下

专注着爱自由

2019-04-02

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$ 拿了将近半年了[流泪]

专注着爱自由

2019-03-19

$美团点评-W(03690)$ 老铁们，这波看空到多少？

专注着爱自由

2019-03-13

$美团点评-W(03690)$ 股票啥时候解禁？

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08:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储：迟来的降息还要多久？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171914039","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"“事不过三”，我们认为2023年以来的3次提前“开香槟”的教训是美联储应该转向谨慎的重要原因。“事不过三”的原则可能要被打破，美联储可能需要更长的数据确认窗口。至于大选的干扰，美联储货币政策可能有影响，但不关键。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>这一次美联储“怂”了，无论是对降息还是加息。作为今年“鸽派”旗手联储主席鲍威尔坦言，自己对于今年通胀重回“持续下降”的信心是明显下降的。<strong>好在加息的门槛也被提高了，而鲍威尔也为今年降息的预期留下了一道“门缝”</strong>，市场长吁一口气之后，政策定价的基准情形可能逐步转向今年美联储“不作为”——这可能也是美股在短线大涨后、最终微幅收跌的重要原因<strong>。</strong>具体而言，我们认为把握三个重点：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>通胀的粘性出乎意料，但是降息的门还没有关死。</strong>与3月相比，5月的纪要中承认最近几个月，通胀没有进一步改善（“a lack of further progress”），去年就业韧性、通胀下降的良性平衡在今年逐步消失了。<strong>当然鲍威尔依旧预期今年通胀会重回下降，但是对此的信心是下降了的</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>降息不容易，加息更难。</strong>降息的落地依旧存在两种场景：<strong>一是就业市场大幅、超预期降温；二是通常重启类似去年的下降趋势</strong>。加息当然是选项，但是它的门槛会更高——美联储承认对于通胀出现系统性误判，目前看来可能性不大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“大棒之外的胡萝卜”，缩表降速略超预期。</strong>5月会议宣布将从6月开始放缓国债缩表的规模，由每月600亿美元降低至250亿美元，缩减的规模略高于市场预期（300亿美元）。虽然这更多的是流动性层面的考虑，但在此前财政公布季度融资计划符合预期的背景下（债券供给暂时不会出现什么幺蛾子），对于市场多少是个好消息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当然我们并不相信这次会议会为联储今年的货币政策“盖棺论定”。因为疫情以来联储官员在政策观点上反复横跳的场景出现过太多，这也是资产大幅波动的重要原因。美股刚送走5年来最好开局，就迎来半年来最差月度表现，也许是时候反思一下美联储当前的政策调整模式了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>我们认为美联储之前的政策框架可能太“急”了：</strong>在通胀粘性和经济韧性的背景下，<strong>政策也需要更多的耐心、“粘性”和余地</strong>，尤其考虑到大选年的复杂性，5月会议的基调可能就是一个开始<strong>。我们认为6月议息会议点阵图可能仍会保留今年降息的可能，当然降息的时点可能推迟到年底</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9915df256b20c60042c560e77de25c3\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"521\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“事不过三”，我们认为2023年以来的3次提前“开香槟”的教训是美联储应该转向谨慎的重要原因。回顾2022年美联储快速紧缩以来的历史，美联储官员主要出现过三轮比较明显的偏“鸽”的引导，分别出现在2023年年初、2023年年中和今年年初，但是最终都被通胀的粘性和就业的韧性扭转，导致市场的大幅波动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>通胀环比和非农就业超预期程度阶段性放缓是重要的触发因素。</strong>回顾3段历史，我们可以看出前期2至3个月的通胀环比放缓、跌至0.3%及以下，叠加非农就业强势程度“打折”是催化政策转向预期和官员鸽派言论的重要因素，而这往往会带来美股的上涨。不过之后无一例外都被通胀和就业的反弹中断或逆转。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2efc2c2cc4cf8d5c83512273210fd46d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"528\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“事不过三”的原则可能要被打破，美联储可能需要更长的数据确认窗口。</strong>从上述经验来看，3个月观察窗口的习惯在当前可能已经不适用了，我们认为将窗口期扩展到4至6个月可能是合适的，这意味着更强的政策定力，而不是“听风就是雨”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06a5b4723fb5c329cf87e67c01727c1\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"985\" tg-height=\"402\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月：向“不作为”回归。根据上述猜想，在不出现就业市场超预期降温或者金融风险爆发的情况下，6月这一关键时点就比较微妙——会议前还会公布4、5月的通胀数据（CPI），我们的情景分析可以参考图6：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>乐观的情形：</strong>4、5月通胀环比连续回落（或不及预期），但仍无法说服美联储降息，更可能是点阵图依旧保持着年内1、2次降息的可能性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>悲观的情形：</strong>4、5月通胀环比没有改善，6月点阵图中值可能直接暗示年内不会降息。当然加息是选项，但是目前看来可能性不大。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4eba3b673ab491c33086c7c6ecda80e\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1008\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">9月：大选年，不要乱动。相较6月，9月可能是更加敏感的政策节点，因为美联储能够搜集到更加充足的经济数据（5个月的通胀数据），但场外因素例如大选的噪音也会更大。经济层面，9月直接降息的迫切性并不大——通胀不太可能自4月开始、连续5个月放缓，至少昨天公布的4月ISM PMI数据已经显示，价格仍有环比加速的动能。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f7d4e4e624d84d0957e7089ae5047ae\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"629\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">至于大选的干扰，美联储货币政策可能有影响，但不关键。从历史经验上看，大选前降息与否与执政党能否连任似乎并没有直接的关系，20世纪80年代以来的大选中，4次降息中3次都未能连任。究其根本，加息和降息背后体现的是经济的好坏，经济迅速降温下的降息对执政党并非好消息。可能更关键的是解决好移民、政府执政能力甚至是巴以、以伊问题。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb99c70996f7e00a1f6e451cc01c2b4\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"570\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当然，我们之前也分析过，美联储大选前的预防式降息可能是拜登政府最想看到的，不过至少从当前的经济逻辑而言，这一点紧迫性并不强。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场影响：少一点暴涨暴跌，多一点基本面研究。美联储如果能保持定力，对于市场而言可能未必是坏事：少一些因为政策干扰出现的市场波动，少一些对于政策的单边押注，可能更能让投资者专注于行业基本面和公司基本面的研究，可能更利好那些业绩较好、中长期逻辑完善的板块和标的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">风险提示：美国经济提前进入显著衰退，巴以冲突局势失控，美国银行危机再起金融风险暴露，美联储超预期降息。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储：迟来的降息还要多久？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储：迟来的降息还要多久？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-02 08:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DJYQSOfbXu6RqHGzLXaBNw><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这一次美联储“怂”了，无论是对降息还是加息。作为今年“鸽派”旗手联储主席鲍威尔坦言，自己对于今年通胀重回“持续下降”的信心是明显下降的。好在加息的门槛也被提高了，而鲍威尔也为今年降息的预期留下了一道“门缝”，市场长吁一口气之后，政策定价的基准情形可能逐步转向今年美联储“不作为”——这可能也是美股在短线大涨后、最终微幅收跌的重要原因。具体而言，我们认为把握三个重点：通胀的粘性出乎意料，但是降息的门还...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DJYQSOfbXu6RqHGzLXaBNw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DJYQSOfbXu6RqHGzLXaBNw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171914039","content_text":"这一次美联储“怂”了，无论是对降息还是加息。作为今年“鸽派”旗手联储主席鲍威尔坦言，自己对于今年通胀重回“持续下降”的信心是明显下降的。好在加息的门槛也被提高了，而鲍威尔也为今年降息的预期留下了一道“门缝”，市场长吁一口气之后，政策定价的基准情形可能逐步转向今年美联储“不作为”——这可能也是美股在短线大涨后、最终微幅收跌的重要原因。具体而言，我们认为把握三个重点：通胀的粘性出乎意料，但是降息的门还没有关死。与3月相比，5月的纪要中承认最近几个月，通胀没有进一步改善（“a lack of further progress”），去年就业韧性、通胀下降的良性平衡在今年逐步消失了。当然鲍威尔依旧预期今年通胀会重回下降，但是对此的信心是下降了的。降息不容易，加息更难。降息的落地依旧存在两种场景：一是就业市场大幅、超预期降温；二是通常重启类似去年的下降趋势。加息当然是选项，但是它的门槛会更高——美联储承认对于通胀出现系统性误判，目前看来可能性不大。“大棒之外的胡萝卜”，缩表降速略超预期。5月会议宣布将从6月开始放缓国债缩表的规模，由每月600亿美元降低至250亿美元，缩减的规模略高于市场预期（300亿美元）。虽然这更多的是流动性层面的考虑，但在此前财政公布季度融资计划符合预期的背景下（债券供给暂时不会出现什么幺蛾子），对于市场多少是个好消息。当然我们并不相信这次会议会为联储今年的货币政策“盖棺论定”。因为疫情以来联储官员在政策观点上反复横跳的场景出现过太多，这也是资产大幅波动的重要原因。美股刚送走5年来最好开局，就迎来半年来最差月度表现，也许是时候反思一下美联储当前的政策调整模式了。我们认为美联储之前的政策框架可能太“急”了：在通胀粘性和经济韧性的背景下，政策也需要更多的耐心、“粘性”和余地，尤其考虑到大选年的复杂性，5月会议的基调可能就是一个开始。我们认为6月议息会议点阵图可能仍会保留今年降息的可能，当然降息的时点可能推迟到年底。“事不过三”，我们认为2023年以来的3次提前“开香槟”的教训是美联储应该转向谨慎的重要原因。回顾2022年美联储快速紧缩以来的历史，美联储官员主要出现过三轮比较明显的偏“鸽”的引导，分别出现在2023年年初、2023年年中和今年年初，但是最终都被通胀的粘性和就业的韧性扭转，导致市场的大幅波动。通胀环比和非农就业超预期程度阶段性放缓是重要的触发因素。回顾3段历史，我们可以看出前期2至3个月的通胀环比放缓、跌至0.3%及以下，叠加非农就业强势程度“打折”是催化政策转向预期和官员鸽派言论的重要因素，而这往往会带来美股的上涨。不过之后无一例外都被通胀和就业的反弹中断或逆转。“事不过三”的原则可能要被打破，美联储可能需要更长的数据确认窗口。从上述经验来看，3个月观察窗口的习惯在当前可能已经不适用了，我们认为将窗口期扩展到4至6个月可能是合适的，这意味着更强的政策定力，而不是“听风就是雨”。6月：向“不作为”回归。根据上述猜想，在不出现就业市场超预期降温或者金融风险爆发的情况下，6月这一关键时点就比较微妙——会议前还会公布4、5月的通胀数据（CPI），我们的情景分析可以参考图6：乐观的情形：4、5月通胀环比连续回落（或不及预期），但仍无法说服美联储降息，更可能是点阵图依旧保持着年内1、2次降息的可能性。悲观的情形：4、5月通胀环比没有改善，6月点阵图中值可能直接暗示年内不会降息。当然加息是选项，但是目前看来可能性不大。9月：大选年，不要乱动。相较6月，9月可能是更加敏感的政策节点，因为美联储能够搜集到更加充足的经济数据（5个月的通胀数据），但场外因素例如大选的噪音也会更大。经济层面，9月直接降息的迫切性并不大——通胀不太可能自4月开始、连续5个月放缓，至少昨天公布的4月ISM PMI数据已经显示，价格仍有环比加速的动能。至于大选的干扰，美联储货币政策可能有影响，但不关键。从历史经验上看，大选前降息与否与执政党能否连任似乎并没有直接的关系，20世纪80年代以来的大选中，4次降息中3次都未能连任。究其根本，加息和降息背后体现的是经济的好坏，经济迅速降温下的降息对执政党并非好消息。可能更关键的是解决好移民、政府执政能力甚至是巴以、以伊问题。当然，我们之前也分析过，美联储大选前的预防式降息可能是拜登政府最想看到的，不过至少从当前的经济逻辑而言，这一点紧迫性并不强。市场影响：少一点暴涨暴跌，多一点基本面研究。美联储如果能保持定力，对于市场而言可能未必是坏事：少一些因为政策干扰出现的市场波动，少一些对于政策的单边押注，可能更能让投资者专注于行业基本面和公司基本面的研究，可能更利好那些业绩较好、中长期逻辑完善的板块和标的。风险提示：美国经济提前进入显著衰退，巴以冲突局势失控，美国银行危机再起金融风险暴露，美联储超预期降息。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":680835453,"gmtCreate":1654868365674,"gmtModify":1704860733189,"author":{"id":"3490871611350835","authorId":"3490871611350835","name":"专注着爱自由","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685a1405b524146bac280af8b55bab8f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3490871611350835","idStr":"3490871611350835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"直接参考保罗的手段，加息至20%以上，看cpi降不降","listText":"直接参考保罗的手段，加息至20%以上，看cpi降不降","text":"直接参考保罗的手段，加息至20%以上，看cpi降不降","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/680835453","repostId":"1193263764","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193263764","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1654866446,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193263764?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-10 21:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前观察：CPI超预期爆表，美联储已经毫无办法？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193263764","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"美国原油不增产，俄乌战争打不停，原油价格还将飞在天上。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>CPI数据继续爆表，美股盘前转跌，中概股盘前普遍上涨。</p><p><b>5月CPI毫无意外爆表</b></p><p>全球最关注的宏观数据出来，美国5月CPI创1981年以来新高，同比提高8.6%，超过分析师预期；核心CPI同比环比也超分析师预期。一点都不意外，下图是过去7年全美汽油价格（蓝色）和CPI曲线（白色），汽油价格涨到天上，CPI也跟到了天上。美元上涨，人民币下跌破6.7，这些是资产对美国高通胀的一级反应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb7a1f2148b2a0da557f54ef86da4b5\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>抛开原油和食物价格高企之外，美国核心CPI的部分价格的走弱也转向了。比方说旧车价格环比从-0.4% -&gt; +1.8%，衣服-0.8% -&gt; +0.7%。目前我想不出很好的理由来解释这个数据，但是美国消费变弱绝对是铁打不变的事实，二手车和衣服的价格只能往下走。</p><p>看到美国CPI和汽油/原油价格走势一致，让我们不得不问一个问题，美联储有办法能降低通货膨胀吗？或者说，加息缩表能够把原油价格打下去吗？答案非常明显，美联储没有任何办法。下图是过去一年的美国汽油价格，红圈是俄乌战争爆发的时候，俄乌战争开始后，美国全国汽油价格从$3.5涨到了$5，上涨幅度40%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c3bf05d9d12aa822d9336871d75d981\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"231\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>现在美联储看见高通胀，想也不想原因就去控制货币供给，似乎货币收缩以后，原油价格就会下降，食品价格就会下降。我把2004年以来，全美汽油价格（白色）和美联储的隔夜利率（蓝色）放在下图，这两者有关系吗？看到汽油价格高就想到加息，就好比看到手被割伤流血就送去化疗一样，美联储真的是没有一点思考能力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ca0e4b772cd6358b0c29737d2a48ba\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"275\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>美国原油不增产，俄乌战争打不停，原油价格还将飞在天上。美联储如果继续头铁加息，那么美国经济只能硬着陆，不可避免。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前观察：CPI超预期爆表，美联储已经毫无办法？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前观察：CPI超预期爆表，美联储已经毫无办法？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-10 21:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>CPI数据继续爆表，美股盘前转跌，中概股盘前普遍上涨。</p><p><b>5月CPI毫无意外爆表</b></p><p>全球最关注的宏观数据出来，美国5月CPI创1981年以来新高，同比提高8.6%，超过分析师预期；核心CPI同比环比也超分析师预期。一点都不意外，下图是过去7年全美汽油价格（蓝色）和CPI曲线（白色），汽油价格涨到天上，CPI也跟到了天上。美元上涨，人民币下跌破6.7，这些是资产对美国高通胀的一级反应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb7a1f2148b2a0da557f54ef86da4b5\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>抛开原油和食物价格高企之外，美国核心CPI的部分价格的走弱也转向了。比方说旧车价格环比从-0.4% -&gt; +1.8%，衣服-0.8% -&gt; +0.7%。目前我想不出很好的理由来解释这个数据，但是美国消费变弱绝对是铁打不变的事实，二手车和衣服的价格只能往下走。</p><p>看到美国CPI和汽油/原油价格走势一致，让我们不得不问一个问题，美联储有办法能降低通货膨胀吗？或者说，加息缩表能够把原油价格打下去吗？答案非常明显，美联储没有任何办法。下图是过去一年的美国汽油价格，红圈是俄乌战争爆发的时候，俄乌战争开始后，美国全国汽油价格从$3.5涨到了$5，上涨幅度40%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c3bf05d9d12aa822d9336871d75d981\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"231\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>现在美联储看见高通胀，想也不想原因就去控制货币供给，似乎货币收缩以后，原油价格就会下降，食品价格就会下降。我把2004年以来，全美汽油价格（白色）和美联储的隔夜利率（蓝色）放在下图，这两者有关系吗？看到汽油价格高就想到加息，就好比看到手被割伤流血就送去化疗一样，美联储真的是没有一点思考能力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ca0e4b772cd6358b0c29737d2a48ba\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"275\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>美国原油不增产，俄乌战争打不停，原油价格还将飞在天上。美联储如果继续头铁加息，那么美国经济只能硬着陆，不可避免。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193263764","content_text":"CPI数据继续爆表，美股盘前转跌，中概股盘前普遍上涨。5月CPI毫无意外爆表全球最关注的宏观数据出来，美国5月CPI创1981年以来新高，同比提高8.6%，超过分析师预期；核心CPI同比环比也超分析师预期。一点都不意外，下图是过去7年全美汽油价格（蓝色）和CPI曲线（白色），汽油价格涨到天上，CPI也跟到了天上。美元上涨，人民币下跌破6.7，这些是资产对美国高通胀的一级反应。抛开原油和食物价格高企之外，美国核心CPI的部分价格的走弱也转向了。比方说旧车价格环比从-0.4% -> +1.8%，衣服-0.8% -> +0.7%。目前我想不出很好的理由来解释这个数据，但是美国消费变弱绝对是铁打不变的事实，二手车和衣服的价格只能往下走。看到美国CPI和汽油/原油价格走势一致，让我们不得不问一个问题，美联储有办法能降低通货膨胀吗？或者说，加息缩表能够把原油价格打下去吗？答案非常明显，美联储没有任何办法。下图是过去一年的美国汽油价格，红圈是俄乌战争爆发的时候，俄乌战争开始后，美国全国汽油价格从$3.5涨到了$5，上涨幅度40%。现在美联储看见高通胀，想也不想原因就去控制货币供给，似乎货币收缩以后，原油价格就会下降，食品价格就会下降。我把2004年以来，全美汽油价格（白色）和美联储的隔夜利率（蓝色）放在下图，这两者有关系吗？看到汽油价格高就想到加息，就好比看到手被割伤流血就送去化疗一样，美联储真的是没有一点思考能力。美国原油不增产，俄乌战争打不停，原油价格还将飞在天上。美联储如果继续头铁加息，那么美国经济只能硬着陆，不可避免。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":951442813,"gmtCreate":1591025119032,"gmtModify":1704194130776,"author":{"id":"3490871611350835","authorId":"3490871611350835","name":"专注着爱自由","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685a1405b524146bac280af8b55bab8f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3490871611350835","idStr":"3490871611350835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>这样豆还能涨，牛批！疫情和抗议活动完全不顶用啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>这样豆还能涨，牛批！疫情和抗议活动完全不顶用啊","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$这样豆还能涨，牛批！疫情和抗议活动完全不顶用啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/951442813","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922172333,"gmtCreate":1587482233822,"gmtModify":1704364431997,"author":{"id":"3490871611350835","authorId":"3490871611350835","name":"专注着爱自由","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685a1405b524146bac280af8b55bab8f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3490871611350835","idStr":"3490871611350835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>今晚会不会熔断？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>今晚会不会熔断？","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$今晚会不会熔断？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922172333","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3917,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3490871611350835","authorId":"3490871611350835","name":"专注着爱自由","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685a1405b524146bac280af8b55bab8f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3490871611350835","idStr":"3490871611350835"},"content":"$道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares(SDOW)$ 已经全仓拿了一个月了。今晚只要熔断，马上回本，还赚不少","text":"$道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares(SDOW)$ 已经全仓拿了一个月了。今晚只要熔断，马上回本，还赚不少","html":"$道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares(SDOW)$ 已经全仓拿了一个月了。今晚只要熔断，马上回本，还赚不少"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928213999,"gmtCreate":1586789235611,"gmtModify":1704362037929,"author":{"id":"3490871611350835","authorId":"3490871611350835","name":"专注着爱自由","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685a1405b524146bac280af8b55bab8f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3490871611350835","idStr":"3490871611350835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SDOW\">$道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares(SDOW)$</a>美股熔断吧，我满仓干了！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SDOW\">$道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares(SDOW)$</a>美股熔断吧，我满仓干了！","text":"$道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares(SDOW)$美股熔断吧，我满仓干了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928213999","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928194029,"gmtCreate":1586498451961,"gmtModify":1704361625658,"author":{"id":"3490871611350835","authorId":"3490871611350835","name":"专注着爱自由","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685a1405b524146bac280af8b55bab8f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3490871611350835","idStr":"3490871611350835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈哈，老子3倍做空！这周一直亏，熔断吧！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SDOW\">$道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares(SDOW)$</a>","listText":"哈哈哈，老子3倍做空！这周一直亏，熔断吧！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SDOW\">$道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares(SDOW)$</a>","text":"哈哈哈，老子3倍做空！这周一直亏，熔断吧！$道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares(SDOW)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928194029","repostId":"1190133354","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190133354","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1586489347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190133354?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-04-10 11:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"没有协议！OPEC+减产谈判因墨西哥抵制破裂，谁来减产？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190133354","media":"券商中国","summary":"因墨西哥抵制，OPEC+减产协议的谈判最终无果而终。国际原油市场经历了一次“巨震之夜”。事实上，昨夜的谈判过程一度迷雾重重，也一度柳暗花明。一度有消息称，欧佩克和非欧佩克成员国(欧佩克+)敲定了一份减","content":"<p><span>因墨西哥抵制，OPEC+减产协议的谈判最终无果而终。国际原油市场经历了一次“巨震之夜”。</span></p><p><b><span>事实上，昨夜的谈判过程一度迷雾重重，也一度柳暗花明。一度有消息称，欧佩克和非欧佩克成员国(欧佩克+)敲定了一份减产协议。</span></b></p><p><span>这份“敲定”的减产协议确定：自2020年5月1日开始减产1000万桶/日，为期两个月；自2020年7月起，减产800万桶/日，至12月；自2021年1月起减产600万桶/日，至2022年4月。</span></p><p><span>但即便如此，这个额度还是不及市场预期，WTI油价随后暴跌10%。</span></p><p><span>而据最新消息，因墨西哥抵制，OPEC+目前未能达成协议。欧佩克代表也表示，OPEC+不会在没有墨西哥的情况下削减石油产量。墨西哥能源部长称，墨西哥准备好减产仅10万桶/天。</span></p><p><span>国际油价方面，布伦特原油期货价格昨日一度大涨10%以上，收盘下跌2.73%。纽约原油期货的走势基本相当，一度大涨近13%，谈判破裂消息传出后迅速跳水，收盘大跌7.57%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7244fb76539d5f20a0d9d288346983b8\" /></p><p>欧佩克+会议消息满天飞，油价上演“动荡一夜”</p><p><span>在疫情的袭击下，如今的石油市场早已危机重重。目前，全球每天的石油供应过剩已经达到2500万至3000万桶。</span></p><p><span>需求方面，欧佩克+文件显示，预计2020年第二季度全球原油需求下降1200万桶/日。预计2020年全球原油需求萎缩680万桶/日，糟糕的需求令全球原油市场陷入悲观。</span></p><p><span>由于美国、沙特和俄罗斯三大产油国的博弈，减产能否有效执行以及能持续时间也令市场担忧。</span></p><p><span>实际上，在会议还没有开始前，高盛就在一份报告中称，假设周四的OPEC 会议决定减产1000万桶/日（有效减产量为650万桶/日）将不足以改善全球油市供需平衡。</span></p><p><b><span>4月9日晚上10点，“欧佩克+”视频会议正式拉开序幕。</span></b></p><p><span>大约10点20分左右，据路透社援引OPEC 消息人士称，沙特和俄罗斯就深度减产达成协议。欧佩克+以及其他产油国将讨论减产高达2000万桶/日，这一结果远超市场预期。</span></p><p><span>消息一出，国际油价瞬间飙升。其中,WTI一度大涨13%，布伦特原油涨幅达11%。</span></p><p><span>不过，半个小时后，欧佩克代表称，欧佩克+将全面减产1000万桶/日，为期两个月，在两个月后继续减产，但减产规模下调。</span></p><p><span>即减产规模从2000万桶降至1000万桶，国际油价迅速跳水，将此前的涨幅几乎全部被吞没。</span></p><p><span>北京时间凌晨0点左右，据欧佩克+消息人士称，欧佩克+正在讨论在1200万桶/日的减产范围之外，由其他国家承担500万桶/日的减产配额。</span></p><p><span>美国能源部长布鲁耶特表示，对欧佩克+在今天某个时候达成协议感到乐观，美国政府没有管控原油产量的机制。</span></p><p><span>随后，三名欧佩克+消息人士称，欧佩克+就5-6月减产1000万桶/日达成了原则性协议。</span></p><p><span>欧佩克代表称，欧佩克+将全面减产1000万桶/日，非市场传言的减产2000万桶/日。WTI油价由涨转跌，跌幅达3%。</span></p><p><b><span>在长达近8个小时的漫长会议之后，欧佩克和非欧佩克成员国(欧佩克+)终于敲定了一份减产协议。</span></b></p><p><span>协议确定，自2020年5月1日开始减产1000万桶/日，为期两个月；自2020年7月起，减产800万桶/日，至12月；自2021年1月起减产600万桶/日，至2022年4月。</span></p><p><span>每日减产1000万桶将是OPEC成立以来最大的减产规模，但俄罗斯坚称，只有美国加入该协议，俄罗斯才会减产。加拿大和巴西等其他大型产油国已经表示支持减产，不过这些国家目前是因为市场力量而减产。</span></p><p><span>Rystad Energy石油市场主管Bjornar Tonhaugen表示，“尽管每日减产1000万桶石油将有助于市场在短期内不增加库存，但这对许多人来说是令人失望的进展，他们仍意识到石油供应过剩的规模。”</span></p><p><span>欧佩克代表称，墨西哥仍然反对欧佩克+减产协议。据悉，欧佩克+下一次会议将于2020年6月10日举行。</span></p><p><span>在欧佩克+达成减产协议之后，美国白宫社交媒体主任斯卡维诺称，美国总统特朗普正与俄罗斯总统普京、沙特王储讨论原油协议。</span></p><p><span>据最新消息，因墨西哥抵制，OPEC+目前未能达成协议。媒体称沙特俄罗斯对五月开始减产1000万桶达成一致。</span></p><p>更糟糕的是需求，每日或下降1200万桶</p><p><b><span>实际上，困扰原油最大的问题还是需求不足。</span></b></p><p><span>受疫情影响，3月份以来，全球多个国家经济停摆。高盛预计，全球第二季度的石油需求较上年同期大幅下滑1400万桶/日。</span></p><p><span>这也是高盛提出来，即使OPEC+会议达成减产1000万桶/日，也不足以改善油市供需平衡的原因。“最终，需求暴跌的幅度对于OPEC 协同减产的幅度而言，实在过于庞大。”</span></p><p><span>俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克表示，由于全球经济活动下行，原油需求下降1000-1500万桶/日。</span></p><p><span>欧佩克+文件则显示，预计2020年第二季度全球原油需求下降1200万桶/日。预计2020年全球原油需求萎缩680万桶/日。</span></p><p><b><span>由于需求的迅速下降，导致了原油库存的上升速度远远超出预期。</span></b></p><p><span>周二，美国能源信息署（EIA）公布报告显示，截止4月3日当周，美国EIA原油库存增至1517.7万桶/日，远高于此前预期的969.9万桶。汽油库存增至1049.7万桶。精炼油库存增至47.6万桶，而预估为增加约69.7万桶。</span></p><p><span>目前，全球每天的石油供应过剩达2500万至3000万桶，供需双杀下的原油价格腰斩，价格徘徊在20美金一线。</span></p><p><span>国际货币基金组织(IMF)表示，预计全球2020年经济出现大萧条以来的最严重衰退；预计今年将有超过170个国家GDP出现负增长。</span></p><p><span>Rystad Energy石油市场主管Bjornar Tonhaugen称：“即使减产协议达成，肯定会在短期内提振油价，我们相信这种热情终有一天会消退，需求失衡规模的现实最终将冲击市场。”</span></p><p><span>高盛称，预计WTI原油短期存在跌至20美元/桶的风险。</span></p><p><span>有分析指出，撇开这次危机不谈，欧佩克要想稳定油市长期前景，要做的还有很多。其中最主要的，就是制定一项长期战略，为油市在未来应对类似的危机提供帮助。</span></p><p>三大国的博弈：减产能否有效执行和持续？</p><p><span>有分析人士指出，比减产规模更重要的是减产协议的持续时间，还有就是产油国能否严格执行减产计划。</span></p><p><span>据了解，过去OPEC多次减产协议破产，就是某些产油国没有严格执行减产计划，甚至私下偷偷增加产量。</span></p><p><span>在会议召开前，沙特、俄罗斯和美国三大产油国在减产问题上存在明显分歧，尤其是在减产规模和各自的配额上。</span></p><p><span>目前，美国、俄罗斯、沙特是全球前三大原油生产国，美国日产量为1300万桶左右，俄罗斯为1100万桶左右。</span></p><p><span>3月11日，在打响石油价格战后，沙特阿美称，沙特将把原油极限产能从当前的每天1200万桶提升至1300万桶。自4月起，沙特的原油供应量将大幅提高至每天1230万桶。</span></p><p><span>即谈判的一个症结就是，沙特减产将从何水平开始，是从1000万桶的产量算起，还是1230万桶。</span></p><p><span>在当前油价下，已经完全跌破美国页岩油的盈亏平衡线，甚至跌破了部分地区的现金开采成本。</span></p><p><span>4月初，总部位于科罗拉的多州的怀丁石油宣布申请破产。油价的下跌给高杠杆的美国石油公司巨大压力，特朗普不断寻求在沙特和俄罗斯之间达成一项减产协议。</span></p><p><span>一周前，特朗普在推特上宣布，沙特和俄罗斯有望达成减产1000万桶至1500万桶的消息，一度令国际油价大涨。</span></p><p><span>对于美国是否加入减产问题，美国近期表示，在没有政府干预的情况下，美国原油产量已经开始下降，这也让不少投资者对美国方面的行动持怀疑态度。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>没有协议！OPEC+减产谈判因墨西哥抵制破裂，谁来减产？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n没有协议！OPEC+减产谈判因墨西哥抵制破裂，谁来减产？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-04-10 11:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>因墨西哥抵制，OPEC+减产协议的谈判最终无果而终。国际原油市场经历了一次“巨震之夜”。</span></p><p><b><span>事实上，昨夜的谈判过程一度迷雾重重，也一度柳暗花明。一度有消息称，欧佩克和非欧佩克成员国(欧佩克+)敲定了一份减产协议。</span></b></p><p><span>这份“敲定”的减产协议确定：自2020年5月1日开始减产1000万桶/日，为期两个月；自2020年7月起，减产800万桶/日，至12月；自2021年1月起减产600万桶/日，至2022年4月。</span></p><p><span>但即便如此，这个额度还是不及市场预期，WTI油价随后暴跌10%。</span></p><p><span>而据最新消息，因墨西哥抵制，OPEC+目前未能达成协议。欧佩克代表也表示，OPEC+不会在没有墨西哥的情况下削减石油产量。墨西哥能源部长称，墨西哥准备好减产仅10万桶/天。</span></p><p><span>国际油价方面，布伦特原油期货价格昨日一度大涨10%以上，收盘下跌2.73%。纽约原油期货的走势基本相当，一度大涨近13%，谈判破裂消息传出后迅速跳水，收盘大跌7.57%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7244fb76539d5f20a0d9d288346983b8\" /></p><p>欧佩克+会议消息满天飞，油价上演“动荡一夜”</p><p><span>在疫情的袭击下，如今的石油市场早已危机重重。目前，全球每天的石油供应过剩已经达到2500万至3000万桶。</span></p><p><span>需求方面，欧佩克+文件显示，预计2020年第二季度全球原油需求下降1200万桶/日。预计2020年全球原油需求萎缩680万桶/日，糟糕的需求令全球原油市场陷入悲观。</span></p><p><span>由于美国、沙特和俄罗斯三大产油国的博弈，减产能否有效执行以及能持续时间也令市场担忧。</span></p><p><span>实际上，在会议还没有开始前，高盛就在一份报告中称，假设周四的OPEC 会议决定减产1000万桶/日（有效减产量为650万桶/日）将不足以改善全球油市供需平衡。</span></p><p><b><span>4月9日晚上10点，“欧佩克+”视频会议正式拉开序幕。</span></b></p><p><span>大约10点20分左右，据路透社援引OPEC 消息人士称，沙特和俄罗斯就深度减产达成协议。欧佩克+以及其他产油国将讨论减产高达2000万桶/日，这一结果远超市场预期。</span></p><p><span>消息一出，国际油价瞬间飙升。其中,WTI一度大涨13%，布伦特原油涨幅达11%。</span></p><p><span>不过，半个小时后，欧佩克代表称，欧佩克+将全面减产1000万桶/日，为期两个月，在两个月后继续减产，但减产规模下调。</span></p><p><span>即减产规模从2000万桶降至1000万桶，国际油价迅速跳水，将此前的涨幅几乎全部被吞没。</span></p><p><span>北京时间凌晨0点左右，据欧佩克+消息人士称，欧佩克+正在讨论在1200万桶/日的减产范围之外，由其他国家承担500万桶/日的减产配额。</span></p><p><span>美国能源部长布鲁耶特表示，对欧佩克+在今天某个时候达成协议感到乐观，美国政府没有管控原油产量的机制。</span></p><p><span>随后，三名欧佩克+消息人士称，欧佩克+就5-6月减产1000万桶/日达成了原则性协议。</span></p><p><span>欧佩克代表称，欧佩克+将全面减产1000万桶/日，非市场传言的减产2000万桶/日。WTI油价由涨转跌，跌幅达3%。</span></p><p><b><span>在长达近8个小时的漫长会议之后，欧佩克和非欧佩克成员国(欧佩克+)终于敲定了一份减产协议。</span></b></p><p><span>协议确定，自2020年5月1日开始减产1000万桶/日，为期两个月；自2020年7月起，减产800万桶/日，至12月；自2021年1月起减产600万桶/日，至2022年4月。</span></p><p><span>每日减产1000万桶将是OPEC成立以来最大的减产规模，但俄罗斯坚称，只有美国加入该协议，俄罗斯才会减产。加拿大和巴西等其他大型产油国已经表示支持减产，不过这些国家目前是因为市场力量而减产。</span></p><p><span>Rystad Energy石油市场主管Bjornar Tonhaugen表示，“尽管每日减产1000万桶石油将有助于市场在短期内不增加库存，但这对许多人来说是令人失望的进展，他们仍意识到石油供应过剩的规模。”</span></p><p><span>欧佩克代表称，墨西哥仍然反对欧佩克+减产协议。据悉，欧佩克+下一次会议将于2020年6月10日举行。</span></p><p><span>在欧佩克+达成减产协议之后，美国白宫社交媒体主任斯卡维诺称，美国总统特朗普正与俄罗斯总统普京、沙特王储讨论原油协议。</span></p><p><span>据最新消息，因墨西哥抵制，OPEC+目前未能达成协议。媒体称沙特俄罗斯对五月开始减产1000万桶达成一致。</span></p><p>更糟糕的是需求，每日或下降1200万桶</p><p><b><span>实际上，困扰原油最大的问题还是需求不足。</span></b></p><p><span>受疫情影响，3月份以来，全球多个国家经济停摆。高盛预计，全球第二季度的石油需求较上年同期大幅下滑1400万桶/日。</span></p><p><span>这也是高盛提出来，即使OPEC+会议达成减产1000万桶/日，也不足以改善油市供需平衡的原因。“最终，需求暴跌的幅度对于OPEC 协同减产的幅度而言，实在过于庞大。”</span></p><p><span>俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克表示，由于全球经济活动下行，原油需求下降1000-1500万桶/日。</span></p><p><span>欧佩克+文件则显示，预计2020年第二季度全球原油需求下降1200万桶/日。预计2020年全球原油需求萎缩680万桶/日。</span></p><p><b><span>由于需求的迅速下降，导致了原油库存的上升速度远远超出预期。</span></b></p><p><span>周二，美国能源信息署（EIA）公布报告显示，截止4月3日当周，美国EIA原油库存增至1517.7万桶/日，远高于此前预期的969.9万桶。汽油库存增至1049.7万桶。精炼油库存增至47.6万桶，而预估为增加约69.7万桶。</span></p><p><span>目前，全球每天的石油供应过剩达2500万至3000万桶，供需双杀下的原油价格腰斩，价格徘徊在20美金一线。</span></p><p><span>国际货币基金组织(IMF)表示，预计全球2020年经济出现大萧条以来的最严重衰退；预计今年将有超过170个国家GDP出现负增长。</span></p><p><span>Rystad Energy石油市场主管Bjornar Tonhaugen称：“即使减产协议达成，肯定会在短期内提振油价，我们相信这种热情终有一天会消退，需求失衡规模的现实最终将冲击市场。”</span></p><p><span>高盛称，预计WTI原油短期存在跌至20美元/桶的风险。</span></p><p><span>有分析指出，撇开这次危机不谈，欧佩克要想稳定油市长期前景，要做的还有很多。其中最主要的，就是制定一项长期战略，为油市在未来应对类似的危机提供帮助。</span></p><p>三大国的博弈：减产能否有效执行和持续？</p><p><span>有分析人士指出，比减产规模更重要的是减产协议的持续时间，还有就是产油国能否严格执行减产计划。</span></p><p><span>据了解，过去OPEC多次减产协议破产，就是某些产油国没有严格执行减产计划，甚至私下偷偷增加产量。</span></p><p><span>在会议召开前，沙特、俄罗斯和美国三大产油国在减产问题上存在明显分歧，尤其是在减产规模和各自的配额上。</span></p><p><span>目前，美国、俄罗斯、沙特是全球前三大原油生产国，美国日产量为1300万桶左右，俄罗斯为1100万桶左右。</span></p><p><span>3月11日，在打响石油价格战后，沙特阿美称，沙特将把原油极限产能从当前的每天1200万桶提升至1300万桶。自4月起，沙特的原油供应量将大幅提高至每天1230万桶。</span></p><p><span>即谈判的一个症结就是，沙特减产将从何水平开始，是从1000万桶的产量算起，还是1230万桶。</span></p><p><span>在当前油价下，已经完全跌破美国页岩油的盈亏平衡线，甚至跌破了部分地区的现金开采成本。</span></p><p><span>4月初，总部位于科罗拉的多州的怀丁石油宣布申请破产。油价的下跌给高杠杆的美国石油公司巨大压力，特朗普不断寻求在沙特和俄罗斯之间达成一项减产协议。</span></p><p><span>一周前，特朗普在推特上宣布，沙特和俄罗斯有望达成减产1000万桶至1500万桶的消息，一度令国际油价大涨。</span></p><p><span>对于美国是否加入减产问题，美国近期表示，在没有政府干预的情况下，美国原油产量已经开始下降，这也让不少投资者对美国方面的行动持怀疑态度。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3faadc006e67e6ac130a7b171f263b4d","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190133354","content_text":"因墨西哥抵制，OPEC+减产协议的谈判最终无果而终。国际原油市场经历了一次“巨震之夜”。事实上，昨夜的谈判过程一度迷雾重重，也一度柳暗花明。一度有消息称，欧佩克和非欧佩克成员国(欧佩克+)敲定了一份减产协议。这份“敲定”的减产协议确定：自2020年5月1日开始减产1000万桶/日，为期两个月；自2020年7月起，减产800万桶/日，至12月；自2021年1月起减产600万桶/日，至2022年4月。但即便如此，这个额度还是不及市场预期，WTI油价随后暴跌10%。而据最新消息，因墨西哥抵制，OPEC+目前未能达成协议。欧佩克代表也表示，OPEC+不会在没有墨西哥的情况下削减石油产量。墨西哥能源部长称，墨西哥准备好减产仅10万桶/天。国际油价方面，布伦特原油期货价格昨日一度大涨10%以上，收盘下跌2.73%。纽约原油期货的走势基本相当，一度大涨近13%，谈判破裂消息传出后迅速跳水，收盘大跌7.57%。欧佩克+会议消息满天飞，油价上演“动荡一夜”在疫情的袭击下，如今的石油市场早已危机重重。目前，全球每天的石油供应过剩已经达到2500万至3000万桶。需求方面，欧佩克+文件显示，预计2020年第二季度全球原油需求下降1200万桶/日。预计2020年全球原油需求萎缩680万桶/日，糟糕的需求令全球原油市场陷入悲观。由于美国、沙特和俄罗斯三大产油国的博弈，减产能否有效执行以及能持续时间也令市场担忧。实际上，在会议还没有开始前，高盛就在一份报告中称，假设周四的OPEC 会议决定减产1000万桶/日（有效减产量为650万桶/日）将不足以改善全球油市供需平衡。4月9日晚上10点，“欧佩克+”视频会议正式拉开序幕。大约10点20分左右，据路透社援引OPEC 消息人士称，沙特和俄罗斯就深度减产达成协议。欧佩克+以及其他产油国将讨论减产高达2000万桶/日，这一结果远超市场预期。消息一出，国际油价瞬间飙升。其中,WTI一度大涨13%，布伦特原油涨幅达11%。不过，半个小时后，欧佩克代表称，欧佩克+将全面减产1000万桶/日，为期两个月，在两个月后继续减产，但减产规模下调。即减产规模从2000万桶降至1000万桶，国际油价迅速跳水，将此前的涨幅几乎全部被吞没。北京时间凌晨0点左右，据欧佩克+消息人士称，欧佩克+正在讨论在1200万桶/日的减产范围之外，由其他国家承担500万桶/日的减产配额。美国能源部长布鲁耶特表示，对欧佩克+在今天某个时候达成协议感到乐观，美国政府没有管控原油产量的机制。随后，三名欧佩克+消息人士称，欧佩克+就5-6月减产1000万桶/日达成了原则性协议。欧佩克代表称，欧佩克+将全面减产1000万桶/日，非市场传言的减产2000万桶/日。WTI油价由涨转跌，跌幅达3%。在长达近8个小时的漫长会议之后，欧佩克和非欧佩克成员国(欧佩克+)终于敲定了一份减产协议。协议确定，自2020年5月1日开始减产1000万桶/日，为期两个月；自2020年7月起，减产800万桶/日，至12月；自2021年1月起减产600万桶/日，至2022年4月。每日减产1000万桶将是OPEC成立以来最大的减产规模，但俄罗斯坚称，只有美国加入该协议，俄罗斯才会减产。加拿大和巴西等其他大型产油国已经表示支持减产，不过这些国家目前是因为市场力量而减产。Rystad Energy石油市场主管Bjornar Tonhaugen表示，“尽管每日减产1000万桶石油将有助于市场在短期内不增加库存，但这对许多人来说是令人失望的进展，他们仍意识到石油供应过剩的规模。”欧佩克代表称，墨西哥仍然反对欧佩克+减产协议。据悉，欧佩克+下一次会议将于2020年6月10日举行。在欧佩克+达成减产协议之后，美国白宫社交媒体主任斯卡维诺称，美国总统特朗普正与俄罗斯总统普京、沙特王储讨论原油协议。据最新消息，因墨西哥抵制，OPEC+目前未能达成协议。媒体称沙特俄罗斯对五月开始减产1000万桶达成一致。更糟糕的是需求，每日或下降1200万桶实际上，困扰原油最大的问题还是需求不足。受疫情影响，3月份以来，全球多个国家经济停摆。高盛预计，全球第二季度的石油需求较上年同期大幅下滑1400万桶/日。这也是高盛提出来，即使OPEC+会议达成减产1000万桶/日，也不足以改善油市供需平衡的原因。“最终，需求暴跌的幅度对于OPEC 协同减产的幅度而言，实在过于庞大。”俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克表示，由于全球经济活动下行，原油需求下降1000-1500万桶/日。欧佩克+文件则显示，预计2020年第二季度全球原油需求下降1200万桶/日。预计2020年全球原油需求萎缩680万桶/日。由于需求的迅速下降，导致了原油库存的上升速度远远超出预期。周二，美国能源信息署（EIA）公布报告显示，截止4月3日当周，美国EIA原油库存增至1517.7万桶/日，远高于此前预期的969.9万桶。汽油库存增至1049.7万桶。精炼油库存增至47.6万桶，而预估为增加约69.7万桶。目前，全球每天的石油供应过剩达2500万至3000万桶，供需双杀下的原油价格腰斩，价格徘徊在20美金一线。国际货币基金组织(IMF)表示，预计全球2020年经济出现大萧条以来的最严重衰退；预计今年将有超过170个国家GDP出现负增长。Rystad Energy石油市场主管Bjornar Tonhaugen称：“即使减产协议达成，肯定会在短期内提振油价，我们相信这种热情终有一天会消退，需求失衡规模的现实最终将冲击市场。”高盛称，预计WTI原油短期存在跌至20美元/桶的风险。有分析指出，撇开这次危机不谈，欧佩克要想稳定油市长期前景，要做的还有很多。其中最主要的，就是制定一项长期战略，为油市在未来应对类似的危机提供帮助。三大国的博弈：减产能否有效执行和持续？有分析人士指出，比减产规模更重要的是减产协议的持续时间，还有就是产油国能否严格执行减产计划。据了解，过去OPEC多次减产协议破产，就是某些产油国没有严格执行减产计划，甚至私下偷偷增加产量。在会议召开前，沙特、俄罗斯和美国三大产油国在减产问题上存在明显分歧，尤其是在减产规模和各自的配额上。目前，美国、俄罗斯、沙特是全球前三大原油生产国，美国日产量为1300万桶左右，俄罗斯为1100万桶左右。3月11日，在打响石油价格战后，沙特阿美称，沙特将把原油极限产能从当前的每天1200万桶提升至1300万桶。自4月起，沙特的原油供应量将大幅提高至每天1230万桶。即谈判的一个症结就是，沙特减产将从何水平开始，是从1000万桶的产量算起，还是1230万桶。在当前油价下，已经完全跌破美国页岩油的盈亏平衡线，甚至跌破了部分地区的现金开采成本。4月初，总部位于科罗拉的多州的怀丁石油宣布申请破产。油价的下跌给高杠杆的美国石油公司巨大压力，特朗普不断寻求在沙特和俄罗斯之间达成一项减产协议。一周前，特朗普在推特上宣布，沙特和俄罗斯有望达成减产1000万桶至1500万桶的消息，一度令国际油价大涨。对于美国是否加入减产问题，美国近期表示，在没有政府干预的情况下，美国原油产量已经开始下降，这也让不少投资者对美国方面的行动持怀疑态度。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928937105,"gmtCreate":1586440279607,"gmtModify":1704361370416,"author":{"id":"3490871611350835","authorId":"3490871611350835","name":"专注着爱自由","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685a1405b524146bac280af8b55bab8f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3490871611350835","idStr":"3490871611350835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"卧槽，这也太不要脸了吧，强行助推股市","listText":"卧槽，这也太不要脸了吧，强行助推股市","text":"卧槽，这也太不要脸了吧，强行助推股市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928937105","repostId":"2026404750","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2026404750","pubTimestamp":1586437680,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2026404750?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-04-09 21:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储宣布新行动，提供2.3万亿美元市政和企业援助","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2026404750","media":"新浪财经","summary":"美联储周四宣布又一批广泛行动措施，在疫情期间提供高达2.3万亿美元的额外援助，包括启动旨在帮助中小企业以及州和地方政府的计划。\n行动内容包括：\n\n 市政流动性便利：通过直接向各州以及大型县市购买短期票","content":"<p>美联储周四宣布又一批广泛行动措施，在疫情期间提供高达2.3万亿美元的额外援助，包括启动旨在帮助中小企业以及州和地方政府的计划。</p>\n<p><b>行动内容包括：</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n 市政流动性便利：通过直接向各州以及大型县市购买短期票据，向各州和市政当局提供不超过5，000亿美元的贷款。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 大众企业贷款计划：购买不超过6，000亿美元的贷款，确保信贷流向中小企业\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 扩大一级和二级市场企业信贷便利和定期资产支持证券贷款便利的规模和范围，以支持多达8，500亿美元的信贷\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 启动薪资保护计划（PPP）流动性便利，通过小企业PPP贷款支持的定期融资，为参与的金融机构提供流动性\n</blockquote>\n<p>“我们国家的当务之急必须是解决这一公共卫生危机，为患者提供救治，并遏制病毒的进一步传播，”美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在一份声明中说。“美联储的角色是在这个经济活动受限的时期尽我们所能提供救济和稳定，我们今天的行动将有助于确保最终的复苏尽可能强劲。”</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储宣布新行动，提供2.3万亿美元市政和企业援助\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-09 21:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-04-09/doc-iirczymi5381302.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储周四宣布又一批广泛行动措施，在疫情期间提供高达2.3万亿美元的额外援助，包括启动旨在帮助中小企业以及州和地方政府的计划。\n行动内容包括：\n\n 市政流动性便利：通过直接向各州以及大型县市购买短期票据，向各州和市政当局提供不超过5，000亿美元的贷款。\n\n\n 大众企业贷款计划：购买不超过6，000亿美元的贷款，确保信贷流向中小企业\n\n\n 扩大一级和二级市场企业信贷便利和定期资产支持证券贷款便利的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-04-09/doc-iirczymi5381302.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ 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