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莱德弗雷德
2022-09-15
$盈喜集团(ATXG)$
疯狂烧烤
莱德弗雷德
2022-09-07
$盈喜集团(ATXG)$
有点意思了
莱德弗雷德
2020-12-14
不用HUAWEI技术产品,宕机是家常便饭
谷歌旗下服务大面积宕机,5个月内第3次
莱德弗雷德
2020-12-04
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$
看来大家都在等消息。
莱德弗雷德
2020-12-03
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL
总统大选埋下隐患?美国多州大麻合法化高票通过最近的总统大选无疑是美国最热门的话题之一,民众为了自己支持的候选人可谓是无所不用其极,选举夜更是彻夜狂欢,尽管目前选举的最终结果还没公布,但美媒已经宣布,大选夜有一个无可置疑的赢家,不是拜登也不是特朗普,而是:大麻。过去几十年,美国国内一直存在关于“药用大麻合法化”的争议,近20年前联邦执法人员对因病使用大麻人员的逮捕让这件事逐渐成为了公共议题,但当时的司法部长阿什克罗夫特坚持认为,药用大麻者也不能逃脱联邦法律的制裁。但美国各州都有自己独立的立法权,加州在上个世纪90年代就通过了相关立法,不仅将药用大麻合法化,还允许病人种植大麻,随后,多个州份均对药用大麻进行立法。同时,美国大麻的黑市也十分猖獗,大麻在美国已经从一个边缘问题,变成了能否被主流群体接受的问题。目前,美国已经有超过30个州通过了药用大麻合法化的立法,在加州等十几个州内,纯粹的娱乐用大麻也是合法的,这意味着美国人正在逐渐撕下合法化毒品的遮羞布。美媒将大麻称为美国的“赢家”,就是因为在这次总统大选的同时,美国有几十个州对上百项议题进行公投,又有5个州通过了成年人使用大麻合法化的法案,对这些州份的立法机关来说,他们不得不开始建立新的大麻市场,亚利桑那州现在甚至允许曾经因为吸食大麻被定罪的人直接脱罪。据了解,这些州的大麻合法后,所有销售网点要给该州财政上交营业税和加征的特别税,种植和生产大麻也要收税,合法化大麻大大增加了民众的消费热情,提高了州财政收入,这些在暗流中涌动的金钱,才是这些州和联邦法律背道而驰,通过大麻合法化的最重要原因。对此,美国大麻法律改革组织副主任保罗表现出了焦虑,虽然美国民众或许会有不同的党派立场,但他们对大麻合法化的支持不分
莱德弗雷德
2020-12-02
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$
彻底散席了
莱德弗雷德
2020-12-01
$蔚来(NIO)$
要调整到40以下才会重回升势
莱德弗雷德
2020-12-01
$Onconova Therapeutics, Inc.(ONTX)$
要腾飞了
莱德弗雷德
2020-11-30
$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$
这图出现TBS信号是嘛意思
莱德弗雷德
2020-11-30
$蔚来(NIO)$
三傻也该休息了吧
莱德弗雷德
2020-11-27
$Idex ASA(IDEX)$
macd柱子上出现一个B是嘛意思?
莱德弗雷德
2020-11-27
$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$
看来没戏了
莱德弗雷德
2020-11-26
$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$
技术指标发出买入信号
莱德弗雷德
2020-11-23
$Digital Power Corp(DPW)$
散席
莱德弗雷德
2020-11-16
$蔚来(NIO)$
咋混的和小鹏一个水平了
莱德弗雷德
2020-11-16
$蔚来(NIO)$
能上50就不错了
莱德弗雷德
2020-11-15
$蔚来(NIO)$
给你个上车的机会
莱德弗雷德
2020-11-08
$蔚来(NIO)$
回调到35美元,然后继续突飞猛进……
莱德弗雷德
2020-11-02
$理想汽车(LI)$
换手率跟不上
莱德弗雷德
2020-11-02
川建国同志必胜!
做好准备,本周有暴跌20%的风险
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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20:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>12月14日,自北京时间19:40分起,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>旗下的Gmail、YouTube、Google Drive、Google Search等服务出现全线宕机,用户无法正常使用相关服务。</p><p>截止发稿,谷歌尚未对此问题发表正式公告。</p><p>谷歌上一次全球性宕机是9月25日,当时谷歌系统瘫痪多半集中在美国东岸,Gmail、YouTube、Google云端在系统死机时,不断有用户持续尝试进入,但都无法顺利使用。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ec8119e932d1aef1426d95fdfc6dca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d25e1a14780c2d1e6ec5ecf96395d05","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169811318","content_text":"12月14日,自北京时间19:40分起,谷歌旗下的Gmail、YouTube、Google Drive、Google 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>回调到35美元,然后继续突飞猛进……","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$回调到35美元,然后继续突飞猛进……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305906120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3677,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557143628409344","authorId":"3557143628409344","name":"和硕怡亲王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9807e06a21f5da3147448cbd193f24a8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3557143628409344","authorIdStr":"3557143628409344"},"content":"到30-35,又是一个补仓的好机会。一直补仓,一直爽。我的第一个一百万,肯定是蔚来、小鹏、特斯拉你们三个给的。爱你哦。","text":"到30-35,又是一个补仓的好机会。一直补仓,一直爽。我的第一个一百万,肯定是蔚来、小鹏、特斯拉你们三个给的。爱你哦。","html":"到30-35,又是一个补仓的好机会。一直补仓,一直爽。我的第一个一百万,肯定是蔚来、小鹏、特斯拉你们三个给的。爱你哦。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306806807,"gmtCreate":1604328709609,"gmtModify":1703832572150,"author":{"id":"3486338735628462","authorId":"3486338735628462","name":"莱德弗雷德","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/344f270d2c769c816423dce7e32a6da6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486338735628462","authorIdStr":"3486338735628462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>换手率跟不上","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>换手率跟不上","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$换手率跟不上","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306806807","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306140391,"gmtCreate":1604325985213,"gmtModify":1703832538435,"author":{"id":"3486338735628462","authorId":"3486338735628462","name":"莱德弗雷德","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/344f270d2c769c816423dce7e32a6da6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486338735628462","authorIdStr":"3486338735628462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"川建国同志必胜!","listText":"川建国同志必胜!","text":"川建国同志必胜!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306140391","repostId":"1120240427","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120240427","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1604317629,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120240427?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-02 19:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"做好准备,本周有暴跌20%的风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120240427","media":"最贪婪的交易员","summary":"美国大选投票日前夕,我们见证了一场大清仓,股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。\n股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。\n美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间,创7个月以来最大周跌幅,十月下旬标普500就跌了5%,","content":"<p>美国大选投票日前夕,我们见证了一场大清仓,股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。</p>\n<p>股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。</p>\n<p>美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间,创7个月以来最大周跌幅,十月下旬标普500就跌了5%,是<b>1987年(-10.9%)以来同期最差的表现,也创下了大选前一周最差纪录</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa07764170c0a24b0cf3f8097f81162\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"491\"></p>\n<p>道指和纳指都已经进入回调区,较近期高位下跌了10%或更多。各股指现在都来到了关键的技术位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81630991209b611e97ae8dc9370ac9dd\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"554\"></p>\n<p>恐慌指数VIX创3月以来最大涨幅,接近44这个十分重要的水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ffcea60382b18a72bd9a358261c19e7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\"></p>\n<p>WTI原油跌到了34美元水平,为5月以来最低。</p>\n<p>总而言之,最关键也是最危险的一周,来了。</p>\n<p><b>最新选情与最后一天的竞选日程</b></p>\n<p>投票日当天美国大部分地区的天气都非常好,据说这利好民主党,共和党人更应该祈祷恶劣天气。</p>\n<p>一些城市的街道严阵以待,商户用木板把店面封闭,以免在大选夜遭到破坏。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/381c9f9c314071ffd31c707af0b6b023\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"483\"></p>\n<p>投注网站PredictIt显示,拜登胜率为66%,高于一周前的62.9%;川普的胜率约为39%,也略高于一周前的37.1%。</p>\n<p>Real Clear Politics汇总的全美民调显示,拜登的支持率为51.3%,川普为43.5%。</p>\n<p>我们关键还是要看几个 “摇摆州”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4984869d65719b08166c56dc5e90d024\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"532\"></p>\n<p>从周末的民调看,佛州在大选当晚胜负难料。拜登在该州对川普的领先优势不足2个百分点。</p>\n<p>另一个选情激烈的州是俄亥俄州。拜登周一还将在距离投票不足24小时之际,前往俄亥俄州克利夫兰竞选。注意,这是拜登团队新增的竞选行程,体现出他们在俄亥俄州看到了彻底打垮对手的契机。</p>\n<p>宾州也是最重要的战场州之一,现拜登大约领先6个百分点。2016年,川普在这个关键州以0.7%的优势获胜。即使川普守住俄亥俄、得州和佛州,拜登如在宾州取胜将大大增加他最终入主白宫的几率。</p>\n<p>但民调不可尽信,如果这次的民调也跟2016年那般翻车,会发生什么?结果就是川普会赢得538张选举人票中的279张,而拜登只能赢得259张。</p>\n<p><b>若真如此,那将是美国民调行业的奇耻大辱,因为它们从头到尾不曾认为川普有赢得干脆利落的可能性。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27b9b60aeca4804936f45d0b8e5ef7e6\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"428\"></p>\n<p>刚刚过去的周末,还有一个重要的变化。</p>\n<p>CNN、ABC、NBC等一些美国媒体突然愿意对拜登家族的腐败问题开腔,社交媒体Twitter也解封了最先揭发拜登丑闻的纽约邮报的账号。</p>\n<p>CNN甚至发表了一篇社论称,川普值得第二个任期。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcec13920b4b5843cac8e7170134cb13\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"534\"></p>\n<p>在这大选前的最后时刻,如果媒体对拜登问题狂轰滥炸,难免会影响那些在11月3日全凭情绪去投票的选民。</p>\n<p>再者,虽然这个事件来得比较晚,可能还不足以逆转选情,但如果投票过后更多实锤证据浮出水面,大选过后的混乱局面将超乎想象。尤其是在拜登胜出的局面下,事件的影响也会很长久。</p>\n<p><b>做好大选结果推迟出炉的准备</b></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利认为选举夜无结果的可能性高达65%,川普更断言,“大选日当晚不会出结果,要等好几周”。</p>\n<p>在一些最重要的“摇摆州”,混乱的前兆已经出现。</p>\n<p>宾州7个郡表示无能力在大选日统计邮寄选票,有些郡出现大量选票遗失,<b>得州哈里斯郡有12.7万张选票也面临着作废风险。</b></p>\n<p><b>整体而言,威斯康星州、乔治亚州、宾州、佛州的情况都会很胶着,两位候选人的得票可能相当接近,从而引发争执导致重新计票或结果延迟公布。</b></p>\n<p>提醒一下:各个州验证结果,和确定选举人的最后期限是12月8日(投票后35天),或者12月14日选举人团集合之时。</p>\n<p>根据目前已知的情况,<b>佛州65%的邮寄选票已经交回,北卡州56%已经交回。这两个州都可以提前计票,并称在投票站关闭后能快速公布计票结果。</b></p>\n<p>因此,佛州和北卡州的结果将很快出炉,给了市场在投票当晚猜测大选结果的机会。</p>\n<p><b>例如,如果川普拿不下佛州,胜选的可能性就会小很多,市场会立即认为他已经输了。</b></p>\n<p>同样的,如果民主党候选人Cal Cunningham赢得北卡州参议院一席,那么,市场会认为民主党人已经掌控参议院。</p>\n<p>不过更靠谱的做法还是先等几天,<b>如果川普能在佛州胜出或者票数与拜登接近,那么最终结果将取决于计票较慢的密歇根州、威斯康辛州和宾州。</b></p>\n<p><b>如何交易大选?</b></p>\n<p>首先要看市场给我们发出的信号。</p>\n<p>恐慌指数VIX的走势暗示,<b>未来几天的波动性可能高得可怕。</b>按照经验,如果你认为现在的情况与2008-09年类似,就应该降低风险敞口。</p>\n<p>相反,<b>如果你认为现在的情况跟2020年4月更相似,那么即使VIX飙到44,你还是可以增加风险敞口。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2be4150424767aa43652dbd7a3ab9fb5\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"502\"></p>\n<p>至于此次大选各大市场的交易逻辑,我们可以通过下表直观了解:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a57dff41968ff729e6a97000c9b6ec5\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>大选结果对于各类资产的影响,在贪叔看来已经是非常明显的了。</p>\n<p>对美股而言,<b>无论川普还是拜登获胜,都是有利的</b>——前者有减税政策,后者有憧憬中的超大规模刺激法案。</p>\n<p>而美股上涨的幅度,则取决于参议院最终花落谁家。</p>\n<p>当然了,<b>最坏的结果是:选举结果有争议。那么美股可能暴跌20%</b>——也就是说如果周三后选举没有明确的获胜者,美股可能跌入熊市。</p>\n<p>富国银行就在一份最新报告中提醒投资者:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 11月4日的市场会非常动荡,如果结果不明,动荡会持续更长时间。根据2000年的经验,银行股最受伤。\n</blockquote>\n<p>同为风险资产,原油的前景就比美股惨多了。</p>\n<p>要是川普继续当选,当前能源政策就不会发生太大改变,美国对委内瑞拉、伊朗的制裁也会继续,油价应当获利上涨。</p>\n<p>但要是拜登上台,<b>无论民主党能否控制参议院,新总统都会推行他的清洁能源计划,油价必遭重创。</b></p>\n<p>美元和黄金,预计不会展现出明显负相关性。</p>\n<p>一方面,虽然川普任内一直对美元过于强势表示不满,但大选结果对美元汇率的影响,和美股一样,<b>更大程度上和刺激法案挂钩,而不是总统的个人意志。</b></p>\n<p>如果拜登当选且拿下参议院,超大规模刺激法案出炉,对美元来说是最糟糕的结果。相反,川普连任,两党分裂延续,美元便会得到喘息之机。</p>\n<p>另一方面,<b>要是大选结果出现争议,黄金和加密货币会受益。</b>因为有争议的选举不仅会带来市场动荡,还会破坏人们对政府和法定货币的信心。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e5c2329872d8d675ac92f4a7a15d5c9\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"412\"></p>\n<p>总结下来,美股的大选交易逻辑就是:<b>国会能由同一政党把控就是市场波动最小的结果,因为这样下来通过刺激法案的阻力会小很多。</b></p>\n<p>美股最担心的是,拜登胜出但无法拿下参议院,或者川普胜出,因为这样国会会延续分裂局面。</p>","source":"lsy1572248118994","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>做好准备,本周有暴跌20%的风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n做好准备,本周有暴跌20%的风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-02 19:47 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DhUI5Lk2vp5ImKgU4GkEeA><strong>最贪婪的交易员</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国大选投票日前夕,我们见证了一场大清仓,股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。\n股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。\n美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间,创7个月以来最大周跌幅,十月下旬标普500就跌了5%,是1987年(-10.9%)以来同期最差的表现,也创下了大选前一周最差纪录。\n\n道指和纳指都已经进入回调区,较近期高位下跌了10%或更多。各股指现在都来到了关键的技术位。\n\n恐慌指数VIX创3月以来...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DhUI5Lk2vp5ImKgU4GkEeA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e092e4cceb42b6f10c3f508ff5e2078","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DhUI5Lk2vp5ImKgU4GkEeA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120240427","content_text":"美国大选投票日前夕,我们见证了一场大清仓,股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。\n股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。\n美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间,创7个月以来最大周跌幅,十月下旬标普500就跌了5%,是1987年(-10.9%)以来同期最差的表现,也创下了大选前一周最差纪录。\n\n道指和纳指都已经进入回调区,较近期高位下跌了10%或更多。各股指现在都来到了关键的技术位。\n\n恐慌指数VIX创3月以来最大涨幅,接近44这个十分重要的水平。\n\nWTI原油跌到了34美元水平,为5月以来最低。\n总而言之,最关键也是最危险的一周,来了。\n最新选情与最后一天的竞选日程\n投票日当天美国大部分地区的天气都非常好,据说这利好民主党,共和党人更应该祈祷恶劣天气。\n一些城市的街道严阵以待,商户用木板把店面封闭,以免在大选夜遭到破坏。\n\n投注网站PredictIt显示,拜登胜率为66%,高于一周前的62.9%;川普的胜率约为39%,也略高于一周前的37.1%。\nReal Clear Politics汇总的全美民调显示,拜登的支持率为51.3%,川普为43.5%。\n我们关键还是要看几个 “摇摆州”。\n\n从周末的民调看,佛州在大选当晚胜负难料。拜登在该州对川普的领先优势不足2个百分点。\n另一个选情激烈的州是俄亥俄州。拜登周一还将在距离投票不足24小时之际,前往俄亥俄州克利夫兰竞选。注意,这是拜登团队新增的竞选行程,体现出他们在俄亥俄州看到了彻底打垮对手的契机。\n宾州也是最重要的战场州之一,现拜登大约领先6个百分点。2016年,川普在这个关键州以0.7%的优势获胜。即使川普守住俄亥俄、得州和佛州,拜登如在宾州取胜将大大增加他最终入主白宫的几率。\n但民调不可尽信,如果这次的民调也跟2016年那般翻车,会发生什么?结果就是川普会赢得538张选举人票中的279张,而拜登只能赢得259张。\n若真如此,那将是美国民调行业的奇耻大辱,因为它们从头到尾不曾认为川普有赢得干脆利落的可能性。\n\n刚刚过去的周末,还有一个重要的变化。\nCNN、ABC、NBC等一些美国媒体突然愿意对拜登家族的腐败问题开腔,社交媒体Twitter也解封了最先揭发拜登丑闻的纽约邮报的账号。\nCNN甚至发表了一篇社论称,川普值得第二个任期。\n\n在这大选前的最后时刻,如果媒体对拜登问题狂轰滥炸,难免会影响那些在11月3日全凭情绪去投票的选民。\n再者,虽然这个事件来得比较晚,可能还不足以逆转选情,但如果投票过后更多实锤证据浮出水面,大选过后的混乱局面将超乎想象。尤其是在拜登胜出的局面下,事件的影响也会很长久。\n做好大选结果推迟出炉的准备\n摩根士丹利认为选举夜无结果的可能性高达65%,川普更断言,“大选日当晚不会出结果,要等好几周”。\n在一些最重要的“摇摆州”,混乱的前兆已经出现。\n宾州7个郡表示无能力在大选日统计邮寄选票,有些郡出现大量选票遗失,得州哈里斯郡有12.7万张选票也面临着作废风险。\n整体而言,威斯康星州、乔治亚州、宾州、佛州的情况都会很胶着,两位候选人的得票可能相当接近,从而引发争执导致重新计票或结果延迟公布。\n提醒一下:各个州验证结果,和确定选举人的最后期限是12月8日(投票后35天),或者12月14日选举人团集合之时。\n根据目前已知的情况,佛州65%的邮寄选票已经交回,北卡州56%已经交回。这两个州都可以提前计票,并称在投票站关闭后能快速公布计票结果。\n因此,佛州和北卡州的结果将很快出炉,给了市场在投票当晚猜测大选结果的机会。\n例如,如果川普拿不下佛州,胜选的可能性就会小很多,市场会立即认为他已经输了。\n同样的,如果民主党候选人Cal Cunningham赢得北卡州参议院一席,那么,市场会认为民主党人已经掌控参议院。\n不过更靠谱的做法还是先等几天,如果川普能在佛州胜出或者票数与拜登接近,那么最终结果将取决于计票较慢的密歇根州、威斯康辛州和宾州。\n如何交易大选?\n首先要看市场给我们发出的信号。\n恐慌指数VIX的走势暗示,未来几天的波动性可能高得可怕。按照经验,如果你认为现在的情况与2008-09年类似,就应该降低风险敞口。\n相反,如果你认为现在的情况跟2020年4月更相似,那么即使VIX飙到44,你还是可以增加风险敞口。\n\n至于此次大选各大市场的交易逻辑,我们可以通过下表直观了解:\n\n大选结果对于各类资产的影响,在贪叔看来已经是非常明显的了。\n对美股而言,无论川普还是拜登获胜,都是有利的——前者有减税政策,后者有憧憬中的超大规模刺激法案。\n而美股上涨的幅度,则取决于参议院最终花落谁家。\n当然了,最坏的结果是:选举结果有争议。那么美股可能暴跌20%——也就是说如果周三后选举没有明确的获胜者,美股可能跌入熊市。\n富国银行就在一份最新报告中提醒投资者:\n\n 11月4日的市场会非常动荡,如果结果不明,动荡会持续更长时间。根据2000年的经验,银行股最受伤。\n\n同为风险资产,原油的前景就比美股惨多了。\n要是川普继续当选,当前能源政策就不会发生太大改变,美国对委内瑞拉、伊朗的制裁也会继续,油价应当获利上涨。\n但要是拜登上台,无论民主党能否控制参议院,新总统都会推行他的清洁能源计划,油价必遭重创。\n美元和黄金,预计不会展现出明显负相关性。\n一方面,虽然川普任内一直对美元过于强势表示不满,但大选结果对美元汇率的影响,和美股一样,更大程度上和刺激法案挂钩,而不是总统的个人意志。\n如果拜登当选且拿下参议院,超大规模刺激法案出炉,对美元来说是最糟糕的结果。相反,川普连任,两党分裂延续,美元便会得到喘息之机。\n另一方面,要是大选结果出现争议,黄金和加密货币会受益。因为有争议的选举不仅会带来市场动荡,还会破坏人们对政府和法定货币的信心。\n\n总结下来,美股的大选交易逻辑就是:国会能由同一政党把控就是市场波动最小的结果,因为这样下来通过刺激法案的阻力会小很多。\n美股最担心的是,拜登胜出但无法拿下参议院,或者川普胜出,因为这样国会会延续分裂局面。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":973604136,"gmtCreate":1598525203325,"gmtModify":1704219286765,"author":{"id":"3486338735628462","authorId":"3486338735628462","name":"莱德弗雷德","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/344f270d2c769c816423dce7e32a6da6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486338735628462","authorIdStr":"3486338735628462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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