莱德弗雷德的个人主页 - 老虎社区

莱德弗雷德

莱德弗雷德

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IP属地：山东

34关注

18粉丝

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莱德弗雷德

2020-08-27

$蔚来(NIO)$蔚来股价至少应该200美元每股现在是入手长期持有良机

莱德弗雷德

2018-10-10

$新浪(SINA)$封了崔永元账号，助纣为虐，与正义对抗，与人民为敌！咋不跌呢？

莱德弗雷德

2019-07-26

$SELLAS Life Sciences Group Inc.(SLS)$ 一买就跌，一卖就涨!奶奶隔壁

莱德弗雷德

2020-10-21

$蔚来(NIO)$需要7/8个交易日的盘整，30已经不是障碍，下一糕点35

莱德弗雷德

2020-10-13

$蔚来(NIO)$今日突破平台发力上攻25

莱德弗雷德

2020-11-08

$蔚来(NIO)$回调到35美元，然后继续突飞猛进……

莱德弗雷德

2020-10-28

$蔚来(NIO)$11月站稳35元

莱德弗雷德

2019-07-31

$SELLAS Life Sciences Group Inc.(SLS)$ 一买就跌一卖就涨!赚了个蚊子腿跑了![财迷]

莱德弗雷德

2019-02-26

$腾讯音乐(TME)$突破平台，连创新高，腾讯平台，无可替代，长期持有，必有厚报。

莱德弗雷德

2020-11-15

$蔚来(NIO)$给你个上车的机会

莱德弗雷德

2020-12-02

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$彻底散席了

莱德弗雷德

2020-11-16

$蔚来(NIO)$咋混的和小鹏一个水平了

莱德弗雷德

2020-11-26

$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$技术指标发出买入信号

莱德弗雷德

2020-12-01

$蔚来(NIO)$要调整到40以下才会重回升势

莱德弗雷德

2020-11-30

$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$这图出现TBS信号是嘛意思

莱德弗雷德

2020-11-27

$Idex ASA(IDEX)$macd柱子上出现一个B是嘛意思？

莱德弗雷德

2019-02-22

$腾讯音乐(TME)$王者归来

莱德弗雷德

2020-11-27

$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$看来没戏了

莱德弗雷德

2019-08-21

$SELLAS Life Sciences Group Inc.(SLS)$ 要退市吗？

莱德弗雷德

2019-07-18

$SELLAS Life Sciences Group Inc.(SLS)$ 什么时候退市？

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20:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>12月14日，自北京时间19:40分起，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>旗下的Gmail、YouTube、Google Drive、Google Search等服务出现全线宕机，用户无法正常使用相关服务。</p><p>截止发稿，谷歌尚未对此问题发表正式公告。</p><p>谷歌上一次全球性宕机是9月25日，当时谷歌系统瘫痪多半集中在美国东岸，Gmail、YouTube、Google云端在系统死机时，不断有用户持续尝试进入，但都无法顺利使用。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ec8119e932d1aef1426d95fdfc6dca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d25e1a14780c2d1e6ec5ecf96395d05","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169811318","content_text":"12月14日，自北京时间19:40分起，谷歌旗下的Gmail、YouTube、Google Drive、Google 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>能上50就不错了","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$能上50就不错了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307120574","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307390043,"gmtCreate":1605447182382,"gmtModify":1703837730920,"author":{"id":"3486338735628462","authorId":"3486338735628462","name":"莱德弗雷德","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/344f270d2c769c816423dce7e32a6da6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486338735628462","authorIdStr":"3486338735628462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>给你个上车的机会","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>回调到35美元，然后继续突飞猛进……","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$回调到35美元，然后继续突飞猛进……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305906120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3677,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557143628409344","authorId":"3557143628409344","name":"和硕怡亲王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9807e06a21f5da3147448cbd193f24a8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3557143628409344","authorIdStr":"3557143628409344"},"content":"到30-35，又是一个补仓的好机会。一直补仓，一直爽。我的第一个一百万，肯定是蔚来、小鹏、特斯拉你们三个给的。爱你哦。","text":"到30-35，又是一个补仓的好机会。一直补仓，一直爽。我的第一个一百万，肯定是蔚来、小鹏、特斯拉你们三个给的。爱你哦。","html":"到30-35，又是一个补仓的好机会。一直补仓，一直爽。我的第一个一百万，肯定是蔚来、小鹏、特斯拉你们三个给的。爱你哦。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306806807,"gmtCreate":1604328709609,"gmtModify":1703832572150,"author":{"id":"3486338735628462","authorId":"3486338735628462","name":"莱德弗雷德","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/344f270d2c769c816423dce7e32a6da6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486338735628462","authorIdStr":"3486338735628462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>换手率跟不上","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>换手率跟不上","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$换手率跟不上","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306806807","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306140391,"gmtCreate":1604325985213,"gmtModify":1703832538435,"author":{"id":"3486338735628462","authorId":"3486338735628462","name":"莱德弗雷德","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/344f270d2c769c816423dce7e32a6da6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486338735628462","authorIdStr":"3486338735628462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"川建国同志必胜!","listText":"川建国同志必胜!","text":"川建国同志必胜!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306140391","repostId":"1120240427","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120240427","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1604317629,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120240427?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-02 19:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"做好准备，本周有暴跌20%的风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120240427","media":"最贪婪的交易员","summary":"美国大选投票日前夕，我们见证了一场大清仓，股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。\n股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。\n美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间，创7个月以来最大周跌幅，十月下旬标普500就跌了5%，","content":"<p>美国大选投票日前夕，我们见证了一场大清仓，股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。</p>\n<p>股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。</p>\n<p>美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间，创7个月以来最大周跌幅，十月下旬标普500就跌了5%，是<b>1987年（-10.9%）以来同期最差的表现，也创下了大选前一周最差纪录</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa07764170c0a24b0cf3f8097f81162\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"491\"></p>\n<p>道指和纳指都已经进入回调区，较近期高位下跌了10%或更多。各股指现在都来到了关键的技术位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81630991209b611e97ae8dc9370ac9dd\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"554\"></p>\n<p>恐慌指数VIX创3月以来最大涨幅，接近44这个十分重要的水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ffcea60382b18a72bd9a358261c19e7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\"></p>\n<p>WTI原油跌到了34美元水平，为5月以来最低。</p>\n<p>总而言之，最关键也是最危险的一周，来了。</p>\n<p><b>最新选情与最后一天的竞选日程</b></p>\n<p>投票日当天美国大部分地区的天气都非常好，据说这利好民主党，共和党人更应该祈祷恶劣天气。</p>\n<p>一些城市的街道严阵以待，商户用木板把店面封闭，以免在大选夜遭到破坏。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/381c9f9c314071ffd31c707af0b6b023\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"483\"></p>\n<p>投注网站PredictIt显示，拜登胜率为66%，高于一周前的62.9%；川普的胜率约为39%，也略高于一周前的37.1%。</p>\n<p>Real Clear Politics汇总的全美民调显示，拜登的支持率为51.3%，川普为43.5%。</p>\n<p>我们关键还是要看几个 “摇摆州”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4984869d65719b08166c56dc5e90d024\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"532\"></p>\n<p>从周末的民调看，佛州在大选当晚胜负难料。拜登在该州对川普的领先优势不足2个百分点。</p>\n<p>另一个选情激烈的州是俄亥俄州。拜登周一还将在距离投票不足24小时之际，前往俄亥俄州克利夫兰竞选。注意，这是拜登团队新增的竞选行程，体现出他们在俄亥俄州看到了彻底打垮对手的契机。</p>\n<p>宾州也是最重要的战场州之一，现拜登大约领先6个百分点。2016年，川普在这个关键州以0.7%的优势获胜。即使川普守住俄亥俄、得州和佛州，拜登如在宾州取胜将大大增加他最终入主白宫的几率。</p>\n<p>但民调不可尽信，如果这次的民调也跟2016年那般翻车，会发生什么？结果就是川普会赢得538张选举人票中的279张，而拜登只能赢得259张。</p>\n<p><b>若真如此，那将是美国民调行业的奇耻大辱，因为它们从头到尾不曾认为川普有赢得干脆利落的可能性。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27b9b60aeca4804936f45d0b8e5ef7e6\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"428\"></p>\n<p>刚刚过去的周末，还有一个重要的变化。</p>\n<p>CNN、ABC、NBC等一些美国媒体突然愿意对拜登家族的腐败问题开腔，社交媒体Twitter也解封了最先揭发拜登丑闻的纽约邮报的账号。</p>\n<p>CNN甚至发表了一篇社论称，川普值得第二个任期。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcec13920b4b5843cac8e7170134cb13\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"534\"></p>\n<p>在这大选前的最后时刻，如果媒体对拜登问题狂轰滥炸，难免会影响那些在11月3日全凭情绪去投票的选民。</p>\n<p>再者，虽然这个事件来得比较晚，可能还不足以逆转选情，但如果投票过后更多实锤证据浮出水面，大选过后的混乱局面将超乎想象。尤其是在拜登胜出的局面下，事件的影响也会很长久。</p>\n<p><b>做好大选结果推迟出炉的准备</b></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利认为选举夜无结果的可能性高达65%，川普更断言，“大选日当晚不会出结果，要等好几周”。</p>\n<p>在一些最重要的“摇摆州”，混乱的前兆已经出现。</p>\n<p>宾州7个郡表示无能力在大选日统计邮寄选票，有些郡出现大量选票遗失，<b>得州哈里斯郡有12.7万张选票也面临着作废风险。</b></p>\n<p><b>整体而言，威斯康星州、乔治亚州、宾州、佛州的情况都会很胶着，两位候选人的得票可能相当接近，从而引发争执导致重新计票或结果延迟公布。</b></p>\n<p>提醒一下：各个州验证结果，和确定选举人的最后期限是12月8日（投票后35天），或者12月14日选举人团集合之时。</p>\n<p>根据目前已知的情况，<b>佛州65%的邮寄选票已经交回，北卡州56%已经交回。这两个州都可以提前计票，并称在投票站关闭后能快速公布计票结果。</b></p>\n<p>因此，佛州和北卡州的结果将很快出炉，给了市场在投票当晚猜测大选结果的机会。</p>\n<p><b>例如，如果川普拿不下佛州，胜选的可能性就会小很多，市场会立即认为他已经输了。</b></p>\n<p>同样的，如果民主党候选人Cal Cunningham赢得北卡州参议院一席，那么，市场会认为民主党人已经掌控参议院。</p>\n<p>不过更靠谱的做法还是先等几天，<b>如果川普能在佛州胜出或者票数与拜登接近，那么最终结果将取决于计票较慢的密歇根州、威斯康辛州和宾州。</b></p>\n<p><b>如何交易大选？</b></p>\n<p>首先要看市场给我们发出的信号。</p>\n<p>恐慌指数VIX的走势暗示，<b>未来几天的波动性可能高得可怕。</b>按照经验，如果你认为现在的情况与2008-09年类似，就应该降低风险敞口。</p>\n<p>相反，<b>如果你认为现在的情况跟2020年4月更相似，那么即使VIX飙到44，你还是可以增加风险敞口。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2be4150424767aa43652dbd7a3ab9fb5\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"502\"></p>\n<p>至于此次大选各大市场的交易逻辑，我们可以通过下表直观了解：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a57dff41968ff729e6a97000c9b6ec5\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>大选结果对于各类资产的影响，在贪叔看来已经是非常明显的了。</p>\n<p>对美股而言，<b>无论川普还是拜登获胜，都是有利的</b>——前者有减税政策，后者有憧憬中的超大规模刺激法案。</p>\n<p>而美股上涨的幅度，则取决于参议院最终花落谁家。</p>\n<p>当然了，<b>最坏的结果是：选举结果有争议。那么美股可能暴跌20%</b>——也就是说如果周三后选举没有明确的获胜者，美股可能跌入熊市。</p>\n<p>富国银行就在一份最新报告中提醒投资者：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 11月4日的市场会非常动荡，如果结果不明，动荡会持续更长时间。根据2000年的经验，银行股最受伤。\n</blockquote>\n<p>同为风险资产，原油的前景就比美股惨多了。</p>\n<p>要是川普继续当选，当前能源政策就不会发生太大改变，美国对委内瑞拉、伊朗的制裁也会继续，油价应当获利上涨。</p>\n<p>但要是拜登上台，<b>无论民主党能否控制参议院，新总统都会推行他的清洁能源计划，油价必遭重创。</b></p>\n<p>美元和黄金，预计不会展现出明显负相关性。</p>\n<p>一方面，虽然川普任内一直对美元过于强势表示不满，但大选结果对美元汇率的影响，和美股一样，<b>更大程度上和刺激法案挂钩，而不是总统的个人意志。</b></p>\n<p>如果拜登当选且拿下参议院，超大规模刺激法案出炉，对美元来说是最糟糕的结果。相反，川普连任，两党分裂延续，美元便会得到喘息之机。</p>\n<p>另一方面，<b>要是大选结果出现争议，黄金和加密货币会受益。</b>因为有争议的选举不仅会带来市场动荡，还会破坏人们对政府和法定货币的信心。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e5c2329872d8d675ac92f4a7a15d5c9\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"412\"></p>\n<p>总结下来，美股的大选交易逻辑就是：<b>国会能由同一政党把控就是市场波动最小的结果，因为这样下来通过刺激法案的阻力会小很多。</b></p>\n<p>美股最担心的是，拜登胜出但无法拿下参议院，或者川普胜出，因为这样国会会延续分裂局面。</p>","source":"lsy1572248118994","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>做好准备，本周有暴跌20%的风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n做好准备，本周有暴跌20%的风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-02 19:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DhUI5Lk2vp5ImKgU4GkEeA><strong>最贪婪的交易员</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国大选投票日前夕，我们见证了一场大清仓，股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。\n股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。\n美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间，创7个月以来最大周跌幅，十月下旬标普500就跌了5%，是1987年（-10.9%）以来同期最差的表现，也创下了大选前一周最差纪录。\n\n道指和纳指都已经进入回调区，较近期高位下跌了10%或更多。各股指现在都来到了关键的技术位。\n\n恐慌指数VIX创3月以来...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DhUI5Lk2vp5ImKgU4GkEeA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e092e4cceb42b6f10c3f508ff5e2078","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DhUI5Lk2vp5ImKgU4GkEeA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120240427","content_text":"美国大选投票日前夕，我们见证了一场大清仓，股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。\n股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。\n美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间，创7个月以来最大周跌幅，十月下旬标普500就跌了5%，是1987年（-10.9%）以来同期最差的表现，也创下了大选前一周最差纪录。\n\n道指和纳指都已经进入回调区，较近期高位下跌了10%或更多。各股指现在都来到了关键的技术位。\n\n恐慌指数VIX创3月以来最大涨幅，接近44这个十分重要的水平。\n\nWTI原油跌到了34美元水平，为5月以来最低。\n总而言之，最关键也是最危险的一周，来了。\n最新选情与最后一天的竞选日程\n投票日当天美国大部分地区的天气都非常好，据说这利好民主党，共和党人更应该祈祷恶劣天气。\n一些城市的街道严阵以待，商户用木板把店面封闭，以免在大选夜遭到破坏。\n\n投注网站PredictIt显示，拜登胜率为66%，高于一周前的62.9%；川普的胜率约为39%，也略高于一周前的37.1%。\nReal Clear Politics汇总的全美民调显示，拜登的支持率为51.3%，川普为43.5%。\n我们关键还是要看几个 “摇摆州”。\n\n从周末的民调看，佛州在大选当晚胜负难料。拜登在该州对川普的领先优势不足2个百分点。\n另一个选情激烈的州是俄亥俄州。拜登周一还将在距离投票不足24小时之际，前往俄亥俄州克利夫兰竞选。注意，这是拜登团队新增的竞选行程，体现出他们在俄亥俄州看到了彻底打垮对手的契机。\n宾州也是最重要的战场州之一，现拜登大约领先6个百分点。2016年，川普在这个关键州以0.7%的优势获胜。即使川普守住俄亥俄、得州和佛州，拜登如在宾州取胜将大大增加他最终入主白宫的几率。\n但民调不可尽信，如果这次的民调也跟2016年那般翻车，会发生什么？结果就是川普会赢得538张选举人票中的279张，而拜登只能赢得259张。\n若真如此，那将是美国民调行业的奇耻大辱，因为它们从头到尾不曾认为川普有赢得干脆利落的可能性。\n\n刚刚过去的周末，还有一个重要的变化。\nCNN、ABC、NBC等一些美国媒体突然愿意对拜登家族的腐败问题开腔，社交媒体Twitter也解封了最先揭发拜登丑闻的纽约邮报的账号。\nCNN甚至发表了一篇社论称，川普值得第二个任期。\n\n在这大选前的最后时刻，如果媒体对拜登问题狂轰滥炸，难免会影响那些在11月3日全凭情绪去投票的选民。\n再者，虽然这个事件来得比较晚，可能还不足以逆转选情，但如果投票过后更多实锤证据浮出水面，大选过后的混乱局面将超乎想象。尤其是在拜登胜出的局面下，事件的影响也会很长久。\n做好大选结果推迟出炉的准备\n摩根士丹利认为选举夜无结果的可能性高达65%，川普更断言，“大选日当晚不会出结果，要等好几周”。\n在一些最重要的“摇摆州”，混乱的前兆已经出现。\n宾州7个郡表示无能力在大选日统计邮寄选票，有些郡出现大量选票遗失，得州哈里斯郡有12.7万张选票也面临着作废风险。\n整体而言，威斯康星州、乔治亚州、宾州、佛州的情况都会很胶着，两位候选人的得票可能相当接近，从而引发争执导致重新计票或结果延迟公布。\n提醒一下：各个州验证结果，和确定选举人的最后期限是12月8日（投票后35天），或者12月14日选举人团集合之时。\n根据目前已知的情况，佛州65%的邮寄选票已经交回，北卡州56%已经交回。这两个州都可以提前计票，并称在投票站关闭后能快速公布计票结果。\n因此，佛州和北卡州的结果将很快出炉，给了市场在投票当晚猜测大选结果的机会。\n例如，如果川普拿不下佛州，胜选的可能性就会小很多，市场会立即认为他已经输了。\n同样的，如果民主党候选人Cal Cunningham赢得北卡州参议院一席，那么，市场会认为民主党人已经掌控参议院。\n不过更靠谱的做法还是先等几天，如果川普能在佛州胜出或者票数与拜登接近，那么最终结果将取决于计票较慢的密歇根州、威斯康辛州和宾州。\n如何交易大选？\n首先要看市场给我们发出的信号。\n恐慌指数VIX的走势暗示，未来几天的波动性可能高得可怕。按照经验，如果你认为现在的情况与2008-09年类似，就应该降低风险敞口。\n相反，如果你认为现在的情况跟2020年4月更相似，那么即使VIX飙到44，你还是可以增加风险敞口。\n\n至于此次大选各大市场的交易逻辑，我们可以通过下表直观了解：\n\n大选结果对于各类资产的影响，在贪叔看来已经是非常明显的了。\n对美股而言，无论川普还是拜登获胜，都是有利的——前者有减税政策，后者有憧憬中的超大规模刺激法案。\n而美股上涨的幅度，则取决于参议院最终花落谁家。\n当然了，最坏的结果是：选举结果有争议。那么美股可能暴跌20%——也就是说如果周三后选举没有明确的获胜者，美股可能跌入熊市。\n富国银行就在一份最新报告中提醒投资者：\n\n 11月4日的市场会非常动荡，如果结果不明，动荡会持续更长时间。根据2000年的经验，银行股最受伤。\n\n同为风险资产，原油的前景就比美股惨多了。\n要是川普继续当选，当前能源政策就不会发生太大改变，美国对委内瑞拉、伊朗的制裁也会继续，油价应当获利上涨。\n但要是拜登上台，无论民主党能否控制参议院，新总统都会推行他的清洁能源计划，油价必遭重创。\n美元和黄金，预计不会展现出明显负相关性。\n一方面，虽然川普任内一直对美元过于强势表示不满，但大选结果对美元汇率的影响，和美股一样，更大程度上和刺激法案挂钩，而不是总统的个人意志。\n如果拜登当选且拿下参议院，超大规模刺激法案出炉，对美元来说是最糟糕的结果。相反，川普连任，两党分裂延续，美元便会得到喘息之机。\n另一方面，要是大选结果出现争议，黄金和加密货币会受益。因为有争议的选举不仅会带来市场动荡，还会破坏人们对政府和法定货币的信心。\n\n总结下来，美股的大选交易逻辑就是：国会能由同一政党把控就是市场波动最小的结果，因为这样下来通过刺激法案的阻力会小很多。\n美股最担心的是，拜登胜出但无法拿下参议院，或者川普胜出，因为这样国会会延续分裂局面。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":973604136,"gmtCreate":1598525203325,"gmtModify":1704219286765,"author":{"id":"3486338735628462","authorId":"3486338735628462","name":"莱德弗雷德","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/344f270d2c769c816423dce7e32a6da6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486338735628462","idStr":"3486338735628462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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