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阿基米德救救我

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阿基米德救救我

2018-06-20

$Facebook(FB)$ 飞哥200终于终于！

阿基米德救救我

2018-09-21

$美光科技(MU)$ 怕是多空双杀期权...

阿基米德救救我

2018-10-31

$Facebook(FB)$ 我想问一下财报直播在哪里看

阿基米德救救我

2019-10-05

$特斯拉(TSLA)$做积分[微笑][微笑][微笑]

阿基米德救救我

2018-12-04

互赞互赞

@小虎活动:【年度有奖活动】老虎为你定制的2019年港美股台历来啦！

阿基米德救救我

2019-10-27

$美光科技(MU)$做积分hh

阿基米德救救我

2019-10-15

$AMD(AMD)$做积分[微笑][微笑]

阿基米德救救我

2019-07-29

$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$看好

阿基米德救救我

2020-06-11

$京东(JD)$给东哥Mark盘前6.18万交易量

阿基米德救救我

2019-07-14

$老虎证券(TIGR)$[微笑]

阿基米德救救我

2019-06-29

$美光科技(MU)$ 利好

阿基米德救救我

2019-08-10

$Mercury Systems Inc(MRCY)$[微笑]

阿基米德救救我

2019-07-28

$Slack Technologies(WORK)$好

阿基米德救救我

2019-07-27

[微笑][微笑][愤怒][愤怒][愤怒][微笑]诶

阿基米德救救我

2019-05-03

$云集(YJ)$ 请问大家有显示这个吗

阿基米德救救我

2018-12-04

$美光科技(MU)$ 嘻嘻嘻嘻嘻嘻

阿基米德救救我

2018-09-21

$美光科技(MU)$ eps beat预期

阿基米德救救我

2020-07-27

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$[开心][开心][开心][开心]

阿基米德救救我

2019-10-18

$复星国际(00656)$做积分hhh

阿基米德救救我

2019-10-01

做积分hhh

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Inc.(NFLX)$做积分hhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/913799292","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":919504013,"gmtCreate":1576767730832,"gmtModify":1704272428841,"author":{"id":"3478665990330692","authorId":"3478665990330692","name":"阿基米德救救我","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3478665990330692","authorIdStr":"3478665990330692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/919504013","repostId":"1194686001","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194686001","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1576762693,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194686001?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2019-12-19 21:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"2019年最风光人物：一顿操作猛如虎，涨跌全看特朗普","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194686001","media":"金十数据","summary":"2019年，讲话有技巧做事有手段的美国总统特朗普为美国经济和美股努力奋斗了一整年，交易员因这位爱自由发挥的总统反复煎熬了一年，投行分析师因为总统的喜怒无常怒撕了无数份预测报告，而那些靠着特朗普赚到钱的","content":"<p>2019年，讲话有技巧做事有手段的美国总统特朗普为美国经济和美股努力奋斗了一整年，交易员因这位爱自由发挥的总统反复煎熬了一年，投行分析师因为总统的喜怒无常怒撕了无数份预测报告，而那些靠着特朗普赚到钱的人是有多么招人羡慕妒忌恨......</p>\n<p>想要总结2019年特朗普总统对市场的影响力，恐怕是一个巨量工程，只能挑选最有价值的经验来分享。看透他，来年我们赚钱也许会容易一些。</p>\n<p><b>【2019年特朗普对市场做了什么？】</b></p>\n<p><span><b>今年市场上与特朗普有关的惊魂瞬间有很多，总结起来，他这一年都在做一件事：</b></span></p>\n<p><b>推行高风险的贸易政策，引发市场剧烈波动，并在经济受损、美股下跌时指责美联储，最终成功逼迫美联储三度降息并扩表，把美股推向巅峰。</b></p>\n<p>可以说经贸情绪的影响力在今年的市场里占了不止半壁江山，以下这个“情绪循环图”被交易员无数次拿出来对照使用：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48dde27224edd5181aeab1e987eb862\"></p>\n<p><span><b>而特朗普总统掀起市场风暴的方式主要有：</b></span></p>\n<p><b>1、主动型：自己发推特或率领（命令）下属上电视说些干扰言论，话题主要是美元、美联储和贸易问题。</b></p>\n<p>例如：在美联储降息的三个月份里（7月、9月和10月），特朗普发了至少50条抨击货币政策的推文，8月他对美联储施压的力度达到巅峰，当月就在推特抨击了25次。</p>\n<p><b>2、被动型：与他相关的美国政局动荡，例如不断白热化的弹劾调查以及一些关于明年大选的预热报道。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/077e3c568ebde69c2914e06d021db45e\"></p>\n<p><span><b>一边亏钱一边叫苦连天的华尔街，还总结出一些这位“最强操盘总统”的具体操作方式：</b></span></p>\n<p><b>1、他有时会预告当天美股会大涨或暗示即将出炉的美国经济数据“极好”，所以大事前夕或重要数据公布前可以留意下他发什么，但结果不一定准。</b></p>\n<p>例如：10月16日，他对一屋子记者说：“股市昨天大涨，今天还会再次大涨”。结果，这个预言大概只准确了20分钟，接着美股就开始下跌，当天集体收跌。</p>\n<p>但在暗示数据方面还挺准。10月30日ADP以及三季度GDP初值数据公布前，特朗普称“美国经济前所未有的好”。果然，当晚的数据优于预期，令黄金遭大幅抛售。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31a0a94c7ae5548e264d71f30ada986a\"></p>\n<p><b>2、还有人发现了一些可能触发他出手的美股点位。</b></p>\n<p>例如，若标普500指数已冲上3000点，特朗普软化经贸立场的可能性不大，但如果该股指跌到2800点，他就很可能做点什么来提振股市。</p>\n<p><b>3、他发布消息也有一定规律：常选择在周五释放消息，且周五好消息偏多，助美股收涨迎周末。但若要释放坏消息，他一般会选在美股收盘后或休市期间。</b></p>\n<p>例如：11月4日周五特朗普和库德洛的“周五出场”现象，助道指、纳指收在历史最高位；10月25日周五特朗普助美股登顶。</p>\n<p><span><b>至于总统今年的操盘成绩，若以100分算，他应该可以拿到80分：</b></span></p>\n<p><b>分地区看：</b></p>\n<p>亚洲市场对特朗普的推文有点“充耳不闻，见怪不怪”，主要因为推文时间段与交易时间有时差。</p>\n<p>在欧美尤其是美国市场，特朗普的推文仍能造成巨大冲击。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a1299f58461d46bba34d8180e89399f\"></p>\n<p><b>分资产看：</b></p>\n<p><b>1、股市有云：一顿分析猛如虎，炒股还看特朗普，今年美股如其所愿数十次刷新历史纪录。</b></p>\n<p>不过，并不是他发得越多，市场表现就越好，事实恰恰相反。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>统计发现自2016年以来，在特朗普每天发布超过35条推文的日子大约占90%，股票平均回报率为负9个基点；而在特朗普另外不到10%、发推不到5条的日子里，平均会有5个基点的正回报。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc2d69297c0116997ba4e7e071ed158c\"></p>\n<p><b>2、汇市：加大波动性，打压美元却起反效果。</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>发现，特朗普的推文会令全球外汇市场的波动性普遍加大。特朗普明确表示“不喜欢强劲的美元”，但华尔街的共识是：将总统干预美元视为买入良机，因美指往往在他发言后会急跌，但能迅速反弹！</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443df845297376803677d74779e36cb6\"></p>\n<p><b>3、对美联储：有扭转货币政策的“功效”。</b></p>\n<p>花旗认为，特朗普关于美元的推文越多，美联储就越有可能采取行动。巨大压力之下，美联储今年已从谨慎收紧转为逐步宽松，不仅三次降息，还扩大资产负债表，在回购市场大规模“注水”。</p>\n<p><b>【未来如何靠特朗普赚钱？】</b></p>\n<p>凡事往好的方面想，若能把特朗普研究透了，挣大钱就太容易了。为此，这一年来大小投行为了预测总统的行为前赴后继、不遗余力，也总算有了些许成果。</p>\n<p><b><span>先说说一些新发现的“工具”：</span></b></p>\n<p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>：推出“Volfefe指数”，用于量化特朗普对美债收益率波动性的影响。</b></p>\n<p>该行还发现：特朗普推文中若包含“十亿美元”、“产品”、“民主党人”和“伟大”等词汇时最有可能影响价格。</p>\n<p>美国东部时间中午到下午2点是“最有可能出现新评论的时段”，也就是在交易日的正中间；凌晨3点的推文比下午3点的推文更多，也就是说对美国利率和股票期货市场的影响更大。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08cc99b258ec951cd4e0a130313f609a\"></p>\n<p><b>2、三菱日联<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>：消费者信心指数的变化可能是一个相当有价值的特朗普政策观察工具。</b></p>\n<p>研究发现，密歇根大学消费者信心指数可能是预测“特朗普卖权”（trump put，指必须转变立场救市的具体点位）更为精确的指标。只要消费者信心指数站在90以上，短期内总统支持率的下滑都能很快恢复，但如果指数显著下降，特朗普后续出台刺激政策或转变立场的可能性非常高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bb8130b7926bfd240dce2b764e8ed8e\"></p>\n<p><b><span>另外，可以关注并预测一些2020年将与特朗普有关的市场话题。</span></b></p>\n<p>下面用他说过的主要“预言”来进行分类：</p>\n<p><b>1、关于股市：“如果我被弹劾，股市就得崩。”“如果我不能连任，美股将现史诗级崩盘“。</b></p>\n<p>这些听起来都像是威胁：不选我，就有大麻烦。但金十数据曾报道，市场更愿意相信，弹劾他的市场影响会和20年前克林顿时代所发生的情形类似。至于他能不能连任，得看经济“成绩单”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67130b8644ebf729f847df28d8d53b66\"></p>\n<p><b>2、关于美联储和鲍威尔：“美联储主席鲍威尔根本帮不上忙，如果需要，将解雇他。”</b></p>\n<p>撤换鲍威尔将引发一场法律大战，进而对金融市场产生巨大影响，大选年特朗普不会愿意看到这样的场面。但他可以安插亲信进入美联储理事会，若能连任，到2022年鲍威尔任满后，他很可能把鲍威尔换掉。</p>\n<p>还有一个疑惑是，美联储已暗示至少按兵不动到2021年，未来特朗普对美联储施加的压力会不会减少？对此，可以留意美国就业、薪资和物价数据的变化，若数据好转令美联储在大选年有了再度加息的念头，抨击美联储的风暴就会再度刮起。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d9426826a7a2ef1eda2155c26c7cab\"></p>\n<p><b>3、关于美元：“如果我愿意，我两秒内就能做到（干预美元让其贬值）”。</b></p>\n<p>花旗认为，美元要再升值5%，特朗普才会干预。但交易员认为这不太可能，因为他现在的政策都在起反效果。所以，未来再听到特朗普要干预美元的言论时，正如上文所说，交易员们更多会视其为买入良机。</p>\n<p><b>4、关于政策：“美国政府正在考虑降低薪资税，以及出售资产获利所需缴纳的资本得利税。”</b></p>\n<p>这些通常是在经济低迷时才会使用的刺激手段，但特朗普同时表示美国经济没有衰退的担忧，他此时提出减税计划的目的就只有一个：为2020年大选铺路。如果明年竞争激烈，减税2.0可能真的会重回桌面。</p>\n<p><b><span>最后，别忘了大选年是非多，有些特朗普都无法解释的事情可能会被对手拿来“炒作”，进而影响市场，所以值得关注：</span></b></p>\n<p><b>1、特朗普涉嫌“内幕交易”？</b></p>\n<p>金十数据曾报道，10月中旬《名利场》就发表过一篇关于期货交易员在特朗普发布重要消息前大量布局获利数十亿美元的报道。这件事不仅惹恼了那些亏了钱的交易员，还升级到政治层面，有至少14名民主党议员要求彻查此事，逼得CFTC和SEC不得不开展大量调查并作出澄清。</p>\n<p>但这些交易所做出的结论有点敷衍，只说交易员利用贸易消息，关键经济数据点甚至政策决策获利的做法并不构成任何不当行为。这样的结论，亏了钱的交易员肯定不会满意，民主党人的怀疑也难消除，未来如果有更多进展，他们也会要求迅速追究违法者的最大责任，目的是把火引到特朗普身上。</p>\n<p><b>2、美联储究竟是敌是友？</b></p>\n<p>8月份的时候，金十数据曾报道，前纽约联储主席杜德利发表文章主动挑起与特朗普的纷争，建议美联储反击特朗普，拒绝配合他的降息要求，以左右2020年美国大选的选情。这件事让美联储的独立性再次遭到质疑，并直接导致民主党人呼吁国会对美联储的独立性展开调查。</p>\n<p>不过美联储似乎没有采取杜德利的建议，已经三度降息为总统“兜底”。事情会否就此不了了之，还是在大选年再度被拿来炒作，值得关注。</p>\n<p><b>3、最致命的一点：美国经济真的变得更好了吗？</b></p>\n<p>这是特朗普连任的关键，也必将是对手攻击的首选目标。特朗普治下的美股确实很风光，标普500年内涨幅近27%、道指21%，纳指33%，但这主要是美联储“放水”的功劳。美国经济就没有他自己说的那么繁荣了：大选年特朗普面临的美国经济表现将与他在奥巴马任期结束时所抨击的疲软经济非常相似——增长尚可，但并不引人注目；制造业陷入衰退，农业也陷入困境，消费者信心指数已从一年前的创纪录高位下滑，GDP从去年的接近3%下滑到现在的接近2%。特朗普没有实现自己的GDP承诺（3%，甚至4%或5%），民主党人不会放过这个致命要点。</p>\n<p>而美股2020年将失去减税效应的利好，取而代之的是大选的不确定性。此外，特朗普此前经贸政策对美国经济的伤害还会逐渐显现，未来难免会出现一些比较难看的经济数据，从而威胁到股市。到了明年，按照他的说法，他还可能在贸易方面与欧盟以及法国等欧洲国家发生摩擦，盛传一时的汽车关税还悬挂在市场的头顶，针对法国数字税的反击也可能随时落地。分析师们的普遍预期是，即使美国经济明年不会衰退，但也会继续放缓。</p>\n<p><b>【总结：2020年特朗普要做好两件事】</b></p>\n<p>对于2020大选年这样一个特殊的年份，特朗普要在弹劾的压力下，保持美国经济势头、保住美股的上涨成果，才能确保连任优势。从当前形势来看，目前这份经济“成绩单”是否足以让特朗普在2020年总统大选中获得优势，仍是一个悬而未决的问题。</p>\n<p><b>所以说，2020还将是特朗普比较艰难的一年，这种情况下该如何稳定选民基础？</b></p>\n<p><b>美联储和经贸话题仍会是他的“子弹”，推特仍会是他的“工具”，保持住市场对未来贸易磋商的“乐观预期”以及确保美联储宽松立场，将是特朗普“唯二”要办成的两件大事。</b></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2019年最风光人物：一顿操作猛如虎，涨跌全看特朗普</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2019年最风光人物：一顿操作猛如虎，涨跌全看特朗普\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2019-12-19 21:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/55048><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2019年，讲话有技巧做事有手段的美国总统特朗普为美国经济和美股努力奋斗了一整年，交易员因这位爱自由发挥的总统反复煎熬了一年，投行分析师因为总统的喜怒无常怒撕了无数份预测报告，而那些靠着特朗普赚到钱的人是有多么招人羡慕妒忌恨......\n想要总结2019年特朗普总统对市场的影响力，恐怕是一个巨量工程，只能挑选最有价值的经验来分享。看透他，来年我们赚钱也许会容易一些。\n【2019年特朗普对市场做了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/55048\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cea48435bb4363cc1cd97f312a094d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/55048","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194686001","content_text":"2019年，讲话有技巧做事有手段的美国总统特朗普为美国经济和美股努力奋斗了一整年，交易员因这位爱自由发挥的总统反复煎熬了一年，投行分析师因为总统的喜怒无常怒撕了无数份预测报告，而那些靠着特朗普赚到钱的人是有多么招人羡慕妒忌恨......\n想要总结2019年特朗普总统对市场的影响力，恐怕是一个巨量工程，只能挑选最有价值的经验来分享。看透他，来年我们赚钱也许会容易一些。\n【2019年特朗普对市场做了什么？】\n今年市场上与特朗普有关的惊魂瞬间有很多，总结起来，他这一年都在做一件事：\n推行高风险的贸易政策，引发市场剧烈波动，并在经济受损、美股下跌时指责美联储，最终成功逼迫美联储三度降息并扩表，把美股推向巅峰。\n可以说经贸情绪的影响力在今年的市场里占了不止半壁江山，以下这个“情绪循环图”被交易员无数次拿出来对照使用：\n\n而特朗普总统掀起市场风暴的方式主要有：\n1、主动型：自己发推特或率领（命令）下属上电视说些干扰言论，话题主要是美元、美联储和贸易问题。\n例如：在美联储降息的三个月份里（7月、9月和10月），特朗普发了至少50条抨击货币政策的推文，8月他对美联储施压的力度达到巅峰，当月就在推特抨击了25次。\n2、被动型：与他相关的美国政局动荡，例如不断白热化的弹劾调查以及一些关于明年大选的预热报道。\n\n一边亏钱一边叫苦连天的华尔街，还总结出一些这位“最强操盘总统”的具体操作方式：\n1、他有时会预告当天美股会大涨或暗示即将出炉的美国经济数据“极好”，所以大事前夕或重要数据公布前可以留意下他发什么，但结果不一定准。\n例如：10月16日，他对一屋子记者说：“股市昨天大涨，今天还会再次大涨”。结果，这个预言大概只准确了20分钟，接着美股就开始下跌，当天集体收跌。\n但在暗示数据方面还挺准。10月30日ADP以及三季度GDP初值数据公布前，特朗普称“美国经济前所未有的好”。果然，当晚的数据优于预期，令黄金遭大幅抛售。\n\n2、还有人发现了一些可能触发他出手的美股点位。\n例如，若标普500指数已冲上3000点，特朗普软化经贸立场的可能性不大，但如果该股指跌到2800点，他就很可能做点什么来提振股市。\n3、他发布消息也有一定规律：常选择在周五释放消息，且周五好消息偏多，助美股收涨迎周末。但若要释放坏消息，他一般会选在美股收盘后或休市期间。\n例如：11月4日周五特朗普和库德洛的“周五出场”现象，助道指、纳指收在历史最高位；10月25日周五特朗普助美股登顶。\n至于总统今年的操盘成绩，若以100分算，他应该可以拿到80分：\n分地区看：\n亚洲市场对特朗普的推文有点“充耳不闻，见怪不怪”，主要因为推文时间段与交易时间有时差。\n在欧美尤其是美国市场，特朗普的推文仍能造成巨大冲击。\n\n分资产看：\n1、股市有云：一顿分析猛如虎，炒股还看特朗普，今年美股如其所愿数十次刷新历史纪录。\n不过，并不是他发得越多，市场表现就越好，事实恰恰相反。美国银行统计发现自2016年以来，在特朗普每天发布超过35条推文的日子大约占90%，股票平均回报率为负9个基点；而在特朗普另外不到10%、发推不到5条的日子里，平均会有5个基点的正回报。\n\n2、汇市：加大波动性，打压美元却起反效果。\n花旗发现，特朗普的推文会令全球外汇市场的波动性普遍加大。特朗普明确表示“不喜欢强劲的美元”，但华尔街的共识是：将总统干预美元视为买入良机，因美指往往在他发言后会急跌，但能迅速反弹！\n\n3、对美联储：有扭转货币政策的“功效”。\n花旗认为，特朗普关于美元的推文越多，美联储就越有可能采取行动。巨大压力之下，美联储今年已从谨慎收紧转为逐步宽松，不仅三次降息，还扩大资产负债表，在回购市场大规模“注水”。\n【未来如何靠特朗普赚钱？】\n凡事往好的方面想，若能把特朗普研究透了，挣大钱就太容易了。为此，这一年来大小投行为了预测总统的行为前赴后继、不遗余力，也总算有了些许成果。\n先说说一些新发现的“工具”：\n1、摩根大通：推出“Volfefe指数”，用于量化特朗普对美债收益率波动性的影响。\n该行还发现：特朗普推文中若包含“十亿美元”、“产品”、“民主党人”和“伟大”等词汇时最有可能影响价格。\n美国东部时间中午到下午2点是“最有可能出现新评论的时段”，也就是在交易日的正中间；凌晨3点的推文比下午3点的推文更多，也就是说对美国利率和股票期货市场的影响更大。\n\n2、三菱日联摩根士丹利：消费者信心指数的变化可能是一个相当有价值的特朗普政策观察工具。\n研究发现，密歇根大学消费者信心指数可能是预测“特朗普卖权”（trump put，指必须转变立场救市的具体点位）更为精确的指标。只要消费者信心指数站在90以上，短期内总统支持率的下滑都能很快恢复，但如果指数显著下降，特朗普后续出台刺激政策或转变立场的可能性非常高。\n\n另外，可以关注并预测一些2020年将与特朗普有关的市场话题。\n下面用他说过的主要“预言”来进行分类：\n1、关于股市：“如果我被弹劾，股市就得崩。”“如果我不能连任，美股将现史诗级崩盘“。\n这些听起来都像是威胁：不选我，就有大麻烦。但金十数据曾报道，市场更愿意相信，弹劾他的市场影响会和20年前克林顿时代所发生的情形类似。至于他能不能连任，得看经济“成绩单”。\n\n2、关于美联储和鲍威尔：“美联储主席鲍威尔根本帮不上忙，如果需要，将解雇他。”\n撤换鲍威尔将引发一场法律大战，进而对金融市场产生巨大影响，大选年特朗普不会愿意看到这样的场面。但他可以安插亲信进入美联储理事会，若能连任，到2022年鲍威尔任满后，他很可能把鲍威尔换掉。\n还有一个疑惑是，美联储已暗示至少按兵不动到2021年，未来特朗普对美联储施加的压力会不会减少？对此，可以留意美国就业、薪资和物价数据的变化，若数据好转令美联储在大选年有了再度加息的念头，抨击美联储的风暴就会再度刮起。\n\n3、关于美元：“如果我愿意，我两秒内就能做到（干预美元让其贬值）”。\n花旗认为，美元要再升值5%，特朗普才会干预。但交易员认为这不太可能，因为他现在的政策都在起反效果。所以，未来再听到特朗普要干预美元的言论时，正如上文所说，交易员们更多会视其为买入良机。\n4、关于政策：“美国政府正在考虑降低薪资税，以及出售资产获利所需缴纳的资本得利税。”\n这些通常是在经济低迷时才会使用的刺激手段，但特朗普同时表示美国经济没有衰退的担忧，他此时提出减税计划的目的就只有一个：为2020年大选铺路。如果明年竞争激烈，减税2.0可能真的会重回桌面。\n最后，别忘了大选年是非多，有些特朗普都无法解释的事情可能会被对手拿来“炒作”，进而影响市场，所以值得关注：\n1、特朗普涉嫌“内幕交易”？\n金十数据曾报道，10月中旬《名利场》就发表过一篇关于期货交易员在特朗普发布重要消息前大量布局获利数十亿美元的报道。这件事不仅惹恼了那些亏了钱的交易员，还升级到政治层面，有至少14名民主党议员要求彻查此事，逼得CFTC和SEC不得不开展大量调查并作出澄清。\n但这些交易所做出的结论有点敷衍，只说交易员利用贸易消息，关键经济数据点甚至政策决策获利的做法并不构成任何不当行为。这样的结论，亏了钱的交易员肯定不会满意，民主党人的怀疑也难消除，未来如果有更多进展，他们也会要求迅速追究违法者的最大责任，目的是把火引到特朗普身上。\n2、美联储究竟是敌是友？\n8月份的时候，金十数据曾报道，前纽约联储主席杜德利发表文章主动挑起与特朗普的纷争，建议美联储反击特朗普，拒绝配合他的降息要求，以左右2020年美国大选的选情。这件事让美联储的独立性再次遭到质疑，并直接导致民主党人呼吁国会对美联储的独立性展开调查。\n不过美联储似乎没有采取杜德利的建议，已经三度降息为总统“兜底”。事情会否就此不了了之，还是在大选年再度被拿来炒作，值得关注。\n3、最致命的一点：美国经济真的变得更好了吗？\n这是特朗普连任的关键，也必将是对手攻击的首选目标。特朗普治下的美股确实很风光，标普500年内涨幅近27%、道指21%，纳指33%，但这主要是美联储“放水”的功劳。美国经济就没有他自己说的那么繁荣了：大选年特朗普面临的美国经济表现将与他在奥巴马任期结束时所抨击的疲软经济非常相似——增长尚可，但并不引人注目；制造业陷入衰退，农业也陷入困境，消费者信心指数已从一年前的创纪录高位下滑，GDP从去年的接近3%下滑到现在的接近2%。特朗普没有实现自己的GDP承诺（3%，甚至4%或5%），民主党人不会放过这个致命要点。\n而美股2020年将失去减税效应的利好，取而代之的是大选的不确定性。此外，特朗普此前经贸政策对美国经济的伤害还会逐渐显现，未来难免会出现一些比较难看的经济数据，从而威胁到股市。到了明年，按照他的说法，他还可能在贸易方面与欧盟以及法国等欧洲国家发生摩擦，盛传一时的汽车关税还悬挂在市场的头顶，针对法国数字税的反击也可能随时落地。分析师们的普遍预期是，即使美国经济明年不会衰退，但也会继续放缓。\n【总结：2020年特朗普要做好两件事】\n对于2020大选年这样一个特殊的年份，特朗普要在弹劾的压力下，保持美国经济势头、保住美股的上涨成果，才能确保连任优势。从当前形势来看，目前这份经济“成绩单”是否足以让特朗普在2020年总统大选中获得优势，仍是一个悬而未决的问题。\n所以说，2020还将是特朗普比较艰难的一年，这种情况下该如何稳定选民基础？\n美联储和经贸话题仍会是他的“子弹”，推特仍会是他的“工具”，保持住市场对未来贸易磋商的“乐观预期”以及确保美联储宽松立场，将是特朗普“唯二”要办成的两件大事。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":934654430,"gmtCreate":1574264684120,"gmtModify":1704727617817,"author":{"id":"3478665990330692","authorId":"3478665990330692","name":"阿基米德救救我","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3478665990330692","authorIdStr":"3478665990330692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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