股心的个人主页 - 老虎社区

股心

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10-30

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 有多少人被套？

10-25

$三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$ 还有人买这个吗？

10-17

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 还有人敢看空吗？

10-17

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 做空的都爆仓了吧？

10-09

没有拿住，卖飞了，45的本，47清仓，不知道还有机会买入吗？

08-05

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$ 有人敢做空吗？

08-05

$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ 134成本以上的有人吗？

07-22

$高途(GOTU)$ 高途招不到生了，刚才给我打电话要我孩子初中补课十节课，20元，上初中的内容，我都不想上。

05-21

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ 还有人被这股套着的吗？成本多少？

04-30

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉一季度财报不好，为什么还能大涨呢？谁知道

04-26

$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ 这妖股老是停牌，谁知道为什么吗？

04-09

为什么是仓位？星链又没有上市？

03-08

有道理！

02-29

高开低走

刚刚，大爆发！A股传来两大利好

02-08

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 扶不起的阿斗

01-23

天天说反攻，大A天天新底

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-12-11

一买就套

半夏李蓓再看好A股：现在股市为20年一遇机会

2022-11-15

$腾讯控股(00700)$

2022-10-20

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$

2022-10-16

$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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有人敢做空吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335144303808784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3499471570391329","authorId":"3499471570391329","name":"黄雀伺蝉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b53b2fdb6c238d51690020496755a0e1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3499471570391329","authorIdStr":"3499471570391329"},"content":"我觉得完全可以空他，妥妥赚","text":"我觉得完全可以空他，妥妥赚","html":"我觉得完全可以空他，妥妥赚"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335212797771968,"gmtCreate":1722845580658,"gmtModify":1722845582077,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476405047536270","authorIdStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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11:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"刚刚，大爆发！A股传来两大利好","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165533046","media":"券商中国","summary":"2月29日，A股三大股指早盘低开高走。从结构上看，科创50大爆发，而科创板的核心芯片板块更是狂拉近5%，大数据ETF盘中最高涨幅达4.05%，信创指数ETF盘中最高涨幅亦达4%以上。大爆发2月29日，A股低开之后，突然加速上涨，沪指涨超1.5%，深证成指涨近3%，创业板指涨超3%。信达证券认为，2024年中央GDP目标设定在5.0%左右的概率较大。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>A股强势反攻。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2月29日，A股三大股指早盘低开高走。截至发稿，沪指涨超1.5%，深证成指涨近3%，创业板指涨超3%。从结构上看，科创50大爆发，而科创板的核心芯片板块更是狂拉近5%，大数据ETF盘中最高涨幅达4.05%，信创指数ETF盘中最高涨幅亦达4%以上。光刻机、封测等细分板块表现尤其突出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">昨天，A股带量全线杀跌，昨天晚上外围市场表现亦一般，今天早盘亚太市场亦是以下跌为主。在这种情况之下，很多市场人士认为，早盘可能还会延续昨日的调整。然而，今天早盘却是大涨格局。那么，究竟是有何利好刺激A股市场逆市反攻，并有修复昨日大跌的架势呢？</p><p><strong>大爆发</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2月29日，A股低开之后，突然加速上涨，沪指涨超1.5%，深证成指涨近3%，创业板指涨超3%。市场上涨个股超5000家，北向资金实际净买入超70亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一格局让人想起了2006年2月27日指数跌停之后，A股开启一路上涨的势头。当然，出现那种级别牛市的可能性并不大，目前的格局可能更像是2019年3月8日之后的市场走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>值得注意的是，今天早盘科创50出现狂拉，该指数ETF最多时上涨超4%。那么，究竟发生了什么？</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6b39351a0f67185726e7e29698b80e\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"580\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>分析人士认为，科创板爆发与两个传闻有关：一是降低投资门槛的传闻再度甚嚣尘上；二是半导体出现劲爆“小作文”，今天早上，半导体产业链爆发，半导体ETF一度狂飙近6%，半导体行业亦出现涨停潮。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b05c7f1f45604fb703366c7dfec4d2c7\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"488\"/></p><p>首先，从今年7月开始，科创板迎来三年解禁高峰，6月开始至年内解禁规模达到8444亿，在这种背景之下，科创板其实是需要新的资金进来承接。科创板开通是要求证券账户或者资金账户20个交易日内日均资产50万以上。当然想要开通科创板除了对资金有要求之外，还需要对投资者风险承受能力，以及投资者证券交易时间等限制。按照目前的投资者结构，降低投资门槛必将给科创板带来较大的助力。最近一段时间，科创50指数表现也非常突发，市场在不断强化这种预期。</p><p>其次，从半导体行业来看，近日，关于光刻机的“小作文”披露了一些让人振奋的消息，所以今天早盘，光刻机板块彻底爆发，张江高科、奥普光电双双直接涨停，光刻机指数暴拉近7%。而由于科创板的一些利好传闻也在向半导体板块传导，今天涨幅居前的半导体股票大部分也是科创板个股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">平安证券认为，光刻机产业呈现强垄断特性，国产突破是唯一选择。ASML、Nikon、Canon是全球光刻机产业三大龙头，占据绝大部分市场份额，其中ASM在高端浸没式DUV及EUV方面绝对领先，Nikon在浸没式DUV方面也有少量出货，Canon则聚焦中低端领域。国内来看，上海微电子是领航者在“02专项”支持以及产业链公司的共同努力下，国产光刻机产业链不断完善：科益虹源已实现准分子激光光源的出货，炬光科技的光刻机用匀化器取得规模可观的营收，茂莱光学已掌握“光刻机曝光物镜超精密光学元件加工”核心技术且其精密光学器件已应用于国产光刻机中，华卓精科则在双工作台方面取得突破。在当前海外对华制裁的背景下，光刻机是被限制的重点，国产化是唯一选择，亟待突破。</p><p><strong>市场是否企稳</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>现在的问题是，在经历昨天的巨量杀跌之后，今天早上大盘再度上攻3000点，市场是否已经企稳？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先，从外资的角度来看，最近北上资金出现了较为明显的变化。去年下半年，北上资金持续流出，但今年1月份开始，这类资金的流向发生了变化，净流入的时间增多，金额增大。中信证券研报称，今年以来，不同类型的海外资金流明显分化，若干指标表明自2023年8月以来外资持续减持A股的趋势已经迎来尾声，海外跨国配置的主动基金内China的实际仓位平均已经降至2018年之前的水平，预计配置类资金后续“回补”的强度和持续性将取决于国内基本面的复苏预期变化。今天早上，截至10:43，北向资金实际净买入超100亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其次，从量化的角度来看，昨天的市场调整主要还是因为涉及量化基金的传闻引发。从一些机构释放的信息来看，若量化基金净卖出限制逐步解除，市场还是会存在一些卖压。据机构统计，DMA产品的资产管理规模约为2000亿元人民币，客户资金支持的DMA产品只占DMA总盘子的不到20%（不到400亿元人民币），这个规模本身看起来不太显著，但其持仓集中在小盘股和中盘股（Wind小盘股指数的1年平均日成交额为140亿元人民币） 对中小盘潜在影响较大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第三，从短期来看，马上将进入到重要会期，做多和维稳的预期会强化。从2000年以来的情况来看，两会期间A股市场大多呈现较积极的表现，上证指数在两会前后20个交易日的平均涨幅分别为2.5%、4.1%。其中涉及两会政策预期的板块或行业表现通常较为亮眼。信达证券认为，2024年中央GDP目标设定在5.0%左右的概率较大。2024年年初预算赤字设定在3%左右，另外安排1万亿不计入赤字的特别国债，实际资金支持力度保持在比2023年不减的水平。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>刚刚，大爆发！A股传来两大利好</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n刚刚，大爆发！A股传来两大利好\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-02-29 11:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>A股强势反攻。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2月29日，A股三大股指早盘低开高走。截至发稿，沪指涨超1.5%，深证成指涨近3%，创业板指涨超3%。从结构上看，科创50大爆发，而科创板的核心芯片板块更是狂拉近5%，大数据ETF盘中最高涨幅达4.05%，信创指数ETF盘中最高涨幅亦达4%以上。光刻机、封测等细分板块表现尤其突出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">昨天，A股带量全线杀跌，昨天晚上外围市场表现亦一般，今天早盘亚太市场亦是以下跌为主。在这种情况之下，很多市场人士认为，早盘可能还会延续昨日的调整。然而，今天早盘却是大涨格局。那么，究竟是有何利好刺激A股市场逆市反攻，并有修复昨日大跌的架势呢？</p><p><strong>大爆发</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2月29日，A股低开之后，突然加速上涨，沪指涨超1.5%，深证成指涨近3%，创业板指涨超3%。市场上涨个股超5000家，北向资金实际净买入超70亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一格局让人想起了2006年2月27日指数跌停之后，A股开启一路上涨的势头。当然，出现那种级别牛市的可能性并不大，目前的格局可能更像是2019年3月8日之后的市场走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>值得注意的是，今天早盘科创50出现狂拉，该指数ETF最多时上涨超4%。那么，究竟发生了什么？</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6b39351a0f67185726e7e29698b80e\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"580\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>分析人士认为，科创板爆发与两个传闻有关：一是降低投资门槛的传闻再度甚嚣尘上；二是半导体出现劲爆“小作文”，今天早上，半导体产业链爆发，半导体ETF一度狂飙近6%，半导体行业亦出现涨停潮。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b05c7f1f45604fb703366c7dfec4d2c7\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"488\"/></p><p>首先，从今年7月开始，科创板迎来三年解禁高峰，6月开始至年内解禁规模达到8444亿，在这种背景之下，科创板其实是需要新的资金进来承接。科创板开通是要求证券账户或者资金账户20个交易日内日均资产50万以上。当然想要开通科创板除了对资金有要求之外，还需要对投资者风险承受能力，以及投资者证券交易时间等限制。按照目前的投资者结构，降低投资门槛必将给科创板带来较大的助力。最近一段时间，科创50指数表现也非常突发，市场在不断强化这种预期。</p><p>其次，从半导体行业来看，近日，关于光刻机的“小作文”披露了一些让人振奋的消息，所以今天早盘，光刻机板块彻底爆发，张江高科、奥普光电双双直接涨停，光刻机指数暴拉近7%。而由于科创板的一些利好传闻也在向半导体板块传导，今天涨幅居前的半导体股票大部分也是科创板个股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">平安证券认为，光刻机产业呈现强垄断特性，国产突破是唯一选择。ASML、Nikon、Canon是全球光刻机产业三大龙头，占据绝大部分市场份额，其中ASM在高端浸没式DUV及EUV方面绝对领先，Nikon在浸没式DUV方面也有少量出货，Canon则聚焦中低端领域。国内来看，上海微电子是领航者在“02专项”支持以及产业链公司的共同努力下，国产光刻机产业链不断完善：科益虹源已实现准分子激光光源的出货，炬光科技的光刻机用匀化器取得规模可观的营收，茂莱光学已掌握“光刻机曝光物镜超精密光学元件加工”核心技术且其精密光学器件已应用于国产光刻机中，华卓精科则在双工作台方面取得突破。在当前海外对华制裁的背景下，光刻机是被限制的重点，国产化是唯一选择，亟待突破。</p><p><strong>市场是否企稳</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>现在的问题是，在经历昨天的巨量杀跌之后，今天早上大盘再度上攻3000点，市场是否已经企稳？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先，从外资的角度来看，最近北上资金出现了较为明显的变化。去年下半年，北上资金持续流出，但今年1月份开始，这类资金的流向发生了变化，净流入的时间增多，金额增大。中信证券研报称，今年以来，不同类型的海外资金流明显分化，若干指标表明自2023年8月以来外资持续减持A股的趋势已经迎来尾声，海外跨国配置的主动基金内China的实际仓位平均已经降至2018年之前的水平，预计配置类资金后续“回补”的强度和持续性将取决于国内基本面的复苏预期变化。今天早上，截至10:43，北向资金实际净买入超100亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其次，从量化的角度来看，昨天的市场调整主要还是因为涉及量化基金的传闻引发。从一些机构释放的信息来看，若量化基金净卖出限制逐步解除，市场还是会存在一些卖压。据机构统计，DMA产品的资产管理规模约为2000亿元人民币，客户资金支持的DMA产品只占DMA总盘子的不到20%（不到400亿元人民币），这个规模本身看起来不太显著，但其持仓集中在小盘股和中盘股（Wind小盘股指数的1年平均日成交额为140亿元人民币） 对中小盘潜在影响较大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第三，从短期来看，马上将进入到重要会期，做多和维稳的预期会强化。从2000年以来的情况来看，两会期间A股市场大多呈现较积极的表现，上证指数在两会前后20个交易日的平均涨幅分别为2.5%、4.1%。其中涉及两会政策预期的板块或行业表现通常较为亮眼。信达证券认为，2024年中央GDP目标设定在5.0%左右的概率较大。2024年年初预算赤字设定在3%左右，另外安排1万亿不计入赤字的特别国债，实际资金支持力度保持在比2023年不减的水平。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/856598df5ccd194472a0d8c185054f77","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165533046","content_text":"A股强势反攻。2月29日，A股三大股指早盘低开高走。截至发稿，沪指涨超1.5%，深证成指涨近3%，创业板指涨超3%。从结构上看，科创50大爆发，而科创板的核心芯片板块更是狂拉近5%，大数据ETF盘中最高涨幅达4.05%，信创指数ETF盘中最高涨幅亦达4%以上。光刻机、封测等细分板块表现尤其突出。昨天，A股带量全线杀跌，昨天晚上外围市场表现亦一般，今天早盘亚太市场亦是以下跌为主。在这种情况之下，很多市场人士认为，早盘可能还会延续昨日的调整。然而，今天早盘却是大涨格局。那么，究竟是有何利好刺激A股市场逆市反攻，并有修复昨日大跌的架势呢？大爆发2月29日，A股低开之后，突然加速上涨，沪指涨超1.5%，深证成指涨近3%，创业板指涨超3%。市场上涨个股超5000家，北向资金实际净买入超70亿元。这一格局让人想起了2006年2月27日指数跌停之后，A股开启一路上涨的势头。当然，出现那种级别牛市的可能性并不大，目前的格局可能更像是2019年3月8日之后的市场走势。值得注意的是，今天早盘科创50出现狂拉，该指数ETF最多时上涨超4%。那么，究竟发生了什么？分析人士认为，科创板爆发与两个传闻有关：一是降低投资门槛的传闻再度甚嚣尘上；二是半导体出现劲爆“小作文”，今天早上，半导体产业链爆发，半导体ETF一度狂飙近6%，半导体行业亦出现涨停潮。首先，从今年7月开始，科创板迎来三年解禁高峰，6月开始至年内解禁规模达到8444亿，在这种背景之下，科创板其实是需要新的资金进来承接。科创板开通是要求证券账户或者资金账户20个交易日内日均资产50万以上。当然想要开通科创板除了对资金有要求之外，还需要对投资者风险承受能力，以及投资者证券交易时间等限制。按照目前的投资者结构，降低投资门槛必将给科创板带来较大的助力。最近一段时间，科创50指数表现也非常突发，市场在不断强化这种预期。其次，从半导体行业来看，近日，关于光刻机的“小作文”披露了一些让人振奋的消息，所以今天早盘，光刻机板块彻底爆发，张江高科、奥普光电双双直接涨停，光刻机指数暴拉近7%。而由于科创板的一些利好传闻也在向半导体板块传导，今天涨幅居前的半导体股票大部分也是科创板个股。平安证券认为，光刻机产业呈现强垄断特性，国产突破是唯一选择。ASML、Nikon、Canon是全球光刻机产业三大龙头，占据绝大部分市场份额，其中ASM在高端浸没式DUV及EUV方面绝对领先，Nikon在浸没式DUV方面也有少量出货，Canon则聚焦中低端领域。国内来看，上海微电子是领航者在“02专项”支持以及产业链公司的共同努力下，国产光刻机产业链不断完善：科益虹源已实现准分子激光光源的出货，炬光科技的光刻机用匀化器取得规模可观的营收，茂莱光学已掌握“光刻机曝光物镜超精密光学元件加工”核心技术且其精密光学器件已应用于国产光刻机中，华卓精科则在双工作台方面取得突破。在当前海外对华制裁的背景下，光刻机是被限制的重点，国产化是唯一选择，亟待突破。市场是否企稳现在的问题是，在经历昨天的巨量杀跌之后，今天早上大盘再度上攻3000点，市场是否已经企稳？首先，从外资的角度来看，最近北上资金出现了较为明显的变化。去年下半年，北上资金持续流出，但今年1月份开始，这类资金的流向发生了变化，净流入的时间增多，金额增大。中信证券研报称，今年以来，不同类型的海外资金流明显分化，若干指标表明自2023年8月以来外资持续减持A股的趋势已经迎来尾声，海外跨国配置的主动基金内China的实际仓位平均已经降至2018年之前的水平，预计配置类资金后续“回补”的强度和持续性将取决于国内基本面的复苏预期变化。今天早上，截至10:43，北向资金实际净买入超100亿元。其次，从量化的角度来看，昨天的市场调整主要还是因为涉及量化基金的传闻引发。从一些机构释放的信息来看，若量化基金净卖出限制逐步解除，市场还是会存在一些卖压。据机构统计，DMA产品的资产管理规模约为2000亿元人民币，客户资金支持的DMA产品只占DMA总盘子的不到20%（不到400亿元人民币），这个规模本身看起来不太显著，但其持仓集中在小盘股和中盘股（Wind小盘股指数的1年平均日成交额为140亿元人民币） 对中小盘潜在影响较大。第三，从短期来看，马上将进入到重要会期，做多和维稳的预期会强化。从2000年以来的情况来看，两会期间A股市场大多呈现较积极的表现，上证指数在两会前后20个交易日的平均涨幅分别为2.5%、4.1%。其中涉及两会政策预期的板块或行业表现通常较为亮眼。信达证券认为，2024年中央GDP目标设定在5.0%左右的概率较大。2024年年初预算赤字设定在3%左右，另外安排1万亿不计入赤字的特别国债，实际资金支持力度保持在比2023年不减的水平。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":271668679954528,"gmtCreate":1707363190967,"gmtModify":1707372138399,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476405047536270","authorIdStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 扶不起的阿斗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 扶不起的阿斗","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 扶不起的阿斗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/271668679954528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":266108746637400,"gmtCreate":1705986277729,"gmtModify":1705986279354,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476405047536270","authorIdStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"天天说反攻，大A天天新底","listText":"天天说反攻，大A天天新底","text":"天天说反攻，大A天天新底","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/266108746637400","repostId":"1182723380","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":250931120586960,"gmtCreate":1702270562599,"gmtModify":1702270564132,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476405047536270","authorIdStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一买就套","listText":"一买就套","text":"一买就套","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/250931120586960","repostId":"2390438626","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2390438626","pubTimestamp":1702269176,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2390438626?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-11 12:32","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"半夏李蓓再看好A股：现在股市为20年一遇机会","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2390438626","media":"智通财经","summary":"“未来五到十年是中国经济或是中国股市的白天”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>半夏投资近日发布李蓓撰写的半夏宏观对冲11月月报。</p><p>人称“私募魔女”的李蓓认为，“现在股市是20年一遇的机会，果断的提高仓位，并愿意承担一定的波动和回撤，愿意保持较高的股票仓位。”同时提到，作为基金经理，她研究过美国、日本等主要国家过去几十年的经济周期和股市波动规律，“我的判断是：未来几年可能是我职业生涯中最好的一波中国股票市场的机会。”</p><p>类似论断并不陌生，李蓓曾在9月月报提到“中国股市或将迎来超越5年一遇级别的牛市”，也在此前接受访谈时表示，“未来五到十年是中国经济或是中国股市的白天”。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/206c27e4fc69c36ff4b14643c24e21c6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>李蓓的最新报告，又“执着”哪些观点和细节？</p><h2 id=\"id_1160265226\" style=\"text-align: start;\"> “只投股票”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据相关报告透露出的半夏投资宏观策略的资产分布情况。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2023年9月、10月和11月，半夏的产品仅有股票仓位，占比约七成到八成。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89980b255fa5f9a25bb602dd09674fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\"/></p><p>这家百亿私募主打的策略是宏观投资，也就是在股票、债券、商品资产上进行多空操作。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">换言之，李蓓出于对权益资产的高度看好，以至于并没有债券和商品的布局</p><h2 id=\"id_1439718857\" style=\"text-align: start;\">产业角度未来值得看好</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">李蓓在月报指出：<strong>全球产能投资上升大周期刚起来2年，本轮产业升级中国是相对成功的，</strong>新能源，汽车，机械，化工等，在国际上处于相对优势的位置，比欧洲和日韩的情况要更好，产业角度未来10年看好。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于中短期宏观背景，她认为：中国利率在全球主要国家中最低，社融企稳回升，企业盈利回升，风险偏好位于历史最低点附近，也是最好的买点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基于此，李蓓指出：无论中长期，还是中短期当前都应该看好中国股市。<strong>因为当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部，而不仅仅是小周期底部。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1595519135\" style=\"text-align: start;\">增量资金何来？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于未来三年A股的增量资金，李蓓点出了保险资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个大背景是：过去10年，保险大量的投资非标和城投。权益类资产持仓维持13%左右的低水平。过去2年，地产类非标基本已经萎缩殆尽，城投非标以后也将退出历史舞台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">李蓓认为：“保险公司想要获取高于3.5%的收益，满足偿付能力需求，很大程度就只能靠股票了。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">她还指出：保险公司面临的问题，是中国所有的有资产配置需求的个人和机构都面临的问题。比如之前中国的私人银行客户，同样的以非标作为主要的配置对象，现在同样的面临资产收益率大幅降低的问题，都是股市潜在的增量资金。</p><h2 id=\"id_3588868029\" style=\"text-align: start;\">看好大盘指数“牛市”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">李蓓对客户指出：有更大的把握认为未来两年是A股大盘指数的牛市。而市场却反而多下跌了5%，变得更加便宜，性价比更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于大类资产价格，她有如下预判：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">利率：利率陷入鸡肋，中期上下两难。财政扩张，政策性金融工具发力，后续的经济复苏都使得利率没有继续明显下行的动力，而高存量地方债务负担，也使得利率需要保持低位，未来1年没有大幅上升的可能。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">商品：未来1年中国复苏美国衰退，总需求没有共振。商品总体没系统的趋势性机会。只有一些局部的相对强弱机会和库存周期的节奏性机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">股票：尤其在经过连续3年的下跌后，在年底这种时刻，机构结账考核存在压力。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“但只需不到一个月，新的一年开启，新的考核周期开启，保险为代表的各类机构，在低利率低信用利差非标收缩的现实资产荒压力下，大概率都会买入股票，增加权益配置的比例。届时，市场大概率会进入持续上行。”她如是说。</p></body></html>","source":"live_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n半夏李蓓再看好A股：现在股市为20年一遇机会\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-11 12:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=astock><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>半夏投资近日发布李蓓撰写的半夏宏观对冲11月月报。人称“私募魔女”的李蓓认为，“现在股市是20年一遇的机会，果断的提高仓位，并愿意承担一定的波动和回撤，愿意保持较高的股票仓位。”同时提到，作为基金经理，她研究过美国、日本等主要国家过去几十年的经济周期和股市波动规律，“我的判断是：未来几年可能是我职业生涯中最好的一波中国股票市场的机会。”类似论断并不陌生，李蓓曾在9月月报提到“中国股市或将迎来超越5...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=astock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c734b87f52be5f120b1c0c0583b68e11","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=astock","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2390438626","content_text":"半夏投资近日发布李蓓撰写的半夏宏观对冲11月月报。人称“私募魔女”的李蓓认为，“现在股市是20年一遇的机会，果断的提高仓位，并愿意承担一定的波动和回撤，愿意保持较高的股票仓位。”同时提到，作为基金经理，她研究过美国、日本等主要国家过去几十年的经济周期和股市波动规律，“我的判断是：未来几年可能是我职业生涯中最好的一波中国股票市场的机会。”类似论断并不陌生，李蓓曾在9月月报提到“中国股市或将迎来超越5年一遇级别的牛市”，也在此前接受访谈时表示，“未来五到十年是中国经济或是中国股市的白天”。李蓓的最新报告，又“执着”哪些观点和细节？ “只投股票”根据相关报告透露出的半夏投资宏观策略的资产分布情况。2023年9月、10月和11月，半夏的产品仅有股票仓位，占比约七成到八成。这家百亿私募主打的策略是宏观投资，也就是在股票、债券、商品资产上进行多空操作。换言之，李蓓出于对权益资产的高度看好，以至于并没有债券和商品的布局产业角度未来值得看好李蓓在月报指出：全球产能投资上升大周期刚起来2年，本轮产业升级中国是相对成功的，新能源，汽车，机械，化工等，在国际上处于相对优势的位置，比欧洲和日韩的情况要更好，产业角度未来10年看好。对于中短期宏观背景，她认为：中国利率在全球主要国家中最低，社融企稳回升，企业盈利回升，风险偏好位于历史最低点附近，也是最好的买点。基于此，李蓓指出：无论中长期，还是中短期当前都应该看好中国股市。因为当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部，而不仅仅是小周期底部。增量资金何来？对于未来三年A股的增量资金，李蓓点出了保险资金。一个大背景是：过去10年，保险大量的投资非标和城投。权益类资产持仓维持13%左右的低水平。过去2年，地产类非标基本已经萎缩殆尽，城投非标以后也将退出历史舞台。李蓓认为：“保险公司想要获取高于3.5%的收益，满足偿付能力需求，很大程度就只能靠股票了。”她还指出：保险公司面临的问题，是中国所有的有资产配置需求的个人和机构都面临的问题。比如之前中国的私人银行客户，同样的以非标作为主要的配置对象，现在同样的面临资产收益率大幅降低的问题，都是股市潜在的增量资金。看好大盘指数“牛市”李蓓对客户指出：有更大的把握认为未来两年是A股大盘指数的牛市。而市场却反而多下跌了5%，变得更加便宜，性价比更高。对于大类资产价格，她有如下预判：利率：利率陷入鸡肋，中期上下两难。财政扩张，政策性金融工具发力，后续的经济复苏都使得利率没有继续明显下行的动力，而高存量地方债务负担，也使得利率需要保持低位，未来1年没有大幅上升的可能。商品：未来1年中国复苏美国衰退，总需求没有共振。商品总体没系统的趋势性机会。只有一些局部的相对强弱机会和库存周期的节奏性机会。股票：尤其在经过连续3年的下跌后，在年底这种时刻，机构结账考核存在压力。“但只需不到一个月，新的一年开启，新的考核周期开启，保险为代表的各类机构，在低利率低信用利差非标收缩的现实资产荒压力下，大概率都会买入股票，增加权益配置的比例。届时，市场大概率会进入持续上行。”她如是说。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667933521,"gmtCreate":1668496128964,"gmtModify":1668496129718,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476405047536270","authorIdStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>UVXY还有人拿着吗？成本多少?都出来说说。","text":"$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$UVXY还有人拿着吗？成本多少?都出来说说。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331466505","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3499104802959491","authorId":"3499104802959491","name":"Mengqian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f247ecab4ac574682090135e6b2dc206","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3499104802959491","idStr":"3499104802959491"},"content":"高位被套，一直加仓到均价$12.33","text":"高位被套，一直加仓到均价$12.33","html":"高位被套，一直加仓到均价$12.33"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":266108746637400,"gmtCreate":1705986277729,"gmtModify":1705986279354,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3476405047536270","idStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"天天说反攻，大A天天新底","listText":"天天说反攻，大A天天新底","text":"天天说反攻，大A天天新底","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/266108746637400","repostId":"1182723380","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182723380","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1705979990,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182723380?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-23 11:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"刚刚，外围传出重磅利好！反攻号角即将吹响？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182723380","media":"券商中国","summary":"就在刚才，外围又传来A股的重磅消息！1月23日早间，A股市场一度重挫，但随后迎来反攻，各大指数迅速翻红，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%以上。但上述消息未获官方证实。昨天晚上，国务院常务会议指出，要采取“强有力的”措施稳定资本市场。大反攻刚刚，股市的大反攻来了！但亦是十点过后，恒生指数展开大反攻，涨幅快速扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。那么，究竟有何利好刺激？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>就在刚才，外围又传来A股的重磅消息！</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1月23日早间，A股市场一度重挫，但随后迎来反攻，各大指数迅速翻红，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%以上。港股市场更是快速拉升，恒指涨幅扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。究竟有何利好刺激？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>据彭博社今早消息，目前，中国正在考虑采取一揽子措施来稳定股市，涉及的金额比较大。但上述消息未获官方证实。昨天晚上，国务院常务会议指出，要采取“强有力的”措施稳定资本市场。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">香港方面，香港特区行政长官李家超称，正密切留意股市波动情况，监管机构很谨慎留意变化，暂时认为市场运作有序，未见不寻常现象。那么，此次是否能够稳住市场？</p><p><strong>大反攻</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">刚刚，股市的大反攻来了！在早盘急速杀跌之后，十点过后，做多资金突然进场，上证指数翻红，早盘一度跌超1%；创业板指劲升2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300274\">阳光电源</a>大涨近8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300763\">锦浪科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300118\">东方日升</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300776\">帝尔激光</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300751\">迈为股份</a>等新能源权重股全线爆发。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f92c248b4845e8ecbe0ffd317760d8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"479\"/></p><p> <strong>与此同时，港股市场亦集体大爆发。早上开盘，恒生指数高开0.52%，科技股领涨，恒生科技指数涨0.88%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨近2%。但亦是十点过后，恒生指数展开大反攻，涨幅快速扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。值得注意的是，北上资金突然一改常态，掉头做多，早上净买入超过20亿元。而A50期指亦是直线拉升。连人民币都被带动，快速升值。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4525c88c2653bf5987a7530df0a57c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"366\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，究竟有何利好刺激？彭博社今早传来的消息指出，中国考虑为稳定基金提供离岸资金，这些政策可能在近期出台，涉及金额可能比较大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最近两天，A股市场持续下行，沪深300指数本周跌至五年低点，中证1000昨天亦创出阶段新低。在这种背景之下，昨天召开的国务院常务会议指出，要进一步健全完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡，大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度，增强市场内在稳定性。要加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，打造规范透明的市场环境。要采取更加有力有效措施，着力稳市场、稳信心。要增强宏观政策取向一致性，加强政策工具创新和协调配合，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，促进资本市场平稳健康发展。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从估值来看，来自德邦证券的数据显示，截至2024年1月20日，A股总体PE（TTM）为15.51倍，2012年以来30%分位；创业板指PE（TTM）估值为25.28倍，2012年以来0%分位；从一致预期角度来看，全A总体PE（2023E）为14.66倍，总体PE（2024E）为12.39倍，分别为2012年以来28%、7%分位。目前A股估值水平处于历低位，港股的估值水平则更低，按理不至于跌成现在这样。</p><p><strong>市场能否企稳？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>估值如此之低，为何没人敢买？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601059\">信达证券</a>表示，以此前的市场为例，2012年底，上证综指的PE（TTM）比2008年的低点更低，但由于制造业投资持续下行，稳增长力度相比2008年底更小，所以投资者迟迟不敢大幅买入。因为之前的历次牛市大多由经济大幅回升驱动，而2013年—2015年的牛市，几乎是不依赖投资回升的，在此期间制造业投资依然还在持续下行。所以面临2012年底或2014年中的估值底，如果单纯关注经济数据，是很难想到未来牛市高度的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">每一次熊市，都会有很多宏大的担心，有些是错的，熊市会在错误逐渐证伪的情况下结束（比如2008年熊市）。有些宏大的担心是对的，但熊市依然会结束，因为股市估值会提前消化长期的担心，之后即使长期担心依然存在，股市可能会在完全不同的利多逻辑演绎下结束熊市。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">广发证券</a>对债务周期背景下的股市进行了研究。他们指出，债务周期下，海外股市大级别底部的形成有赖于企业/居民杠杆率的趋势回落。①泰国1994年—2002年：1997年经济泡沫达到高峰，股市直至2002年三季度在去杠杆较为充分后迎来大级别反转，2004年前后GDP增速才回到危机前峰值。②美国2007年-2009年金融危机：2007年四季度—2008年三季度居民/企业杠杆率陆续见顶回落，2009年一季度股市见底并开启大级别反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，债务风险的消化程度决定了市场底部坚实与否，大级别反转需要债务风险的显著出清：①日本二十世纪90年代前中期：前期债务风险出清缓慢，企业杠杆率直至1993年四季度才开始见顶回落，1990.9、1992.7、1995.6的股市底部都先后被突破；②德国1999年—2009年：2000年—2003年第一阶段去杠杆并不充分，2008年—2009年第二阶段债务风险显著消化，2009年一季度德国股市迎来大级别拐点。</p><p style=\"text-align: right;\"><br/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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11:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>就在刚才，外围又传来A股的重磅消息！</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1月23日早间，A股市场一度重挫，但随后迎来反攻，各大指数迅速翻红，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%以上。港股市场更是快速拉升，恒指涨幅扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。究竟有何利好刺激？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>据彭博社今早消息，目前，中国正在考虑采取一揽子措施来稳定股市，涉及的金额比较大。但上述消息未获官方证实。昨天晚上，国务院常务会议指出，要采取“强有力的”措施稳定资本市场。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">香港方面，香港特区行政长官李家超称，正密切留意股市波动情况，监管机构很谨慎留意变化，暂时认为市场运作有序，未见不寻常现象。那么，此次是否能够稳住市场？</p><p><strong>大反攻</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">刚刚，股市的大反攻来了！在早盘急速杀跌之后，十点过后，做多资金突然进场，上证指数翻红，早盘一度跌超1%；创业板指劲升2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300274\">阳光电源</a>大涨近8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300763\">锦浪科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300118\">东方日升</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300776\">帝尔激光</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300751\">迈为股份</a>等新能源权重股全线爆发。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f92c248b4845e8ecbe0ffd317760d8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"479\"/></p><p> <strong>与此同时，港股市场亦集体大爆发。早上开盘，恒生指数高开0.52%，科技股领涨，恒生科技指数涨0.88%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨近2%。但亦是十点过后，恒生指数展开大反攻，涨幅快速扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。值得注意的是，北上资金突然一改常态，掉头做多，早上净买入超过20亿元。而A50期指亦是直线拉升。连人民币都被带动，快速升值。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4525c88c2653bf5987a7530df0a57c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"366\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，究竟有何利好刺激？彭博社今早传来的消息指出，中国考虑为稳定基金提供离岸资金，这些政策可能在近期出台，涉及金额可能比较大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最近两天，A股市场持续下行，沪深300指数本周跌至五年低点，中证1000昨天亦创出阶段新低。在这种背景之下，昨天召开的国务院常务会议指出，要进一步健全完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡，大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度，增强市场内在稳定性。要加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，打造规范透明的市场环境。要采取更加有力有效措施，着力稳市场、稳信心。要增强宏观政策取向一致性，加强政策工具创新和协调配合，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，促进资本市场平稳健康发展。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从估值来看，来自德邦证券的数据显示，截至2024年1月20日，A股总体PE（TTM）为15.51倍，2012年以来30%分位；创业板指PE（TTM）估值为25.28倍，2012年以来0%分位；从一致预期角度来看，全A总体PE（2023E）为14.66倍，总体PE（2024E）为12.39倍，分别为2012年以来28%、7%分位。目前A股估值水平处于历低位，港股的估值水平则更低，按理不至于跌成现在这样。</p><p><strong>市场能否企稳？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>估值如此之低，为何没人敢买？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601059\">信达证券</a>表示，以此前的市场为例，2012年底，上证综指的PE（TTM）比2008年的低点更低，但由于制造业投资持续下行，稳增长力度相比2008年底更小，所以投资者迟迟不敢大幅买入。因为之前的历次牛市大多由经济大幅回升驱动，而2013年—2015年的牛市，几乎是不依赖投资回升的，在此期间制造业投资依然还在持续下行。所以面临2012年底或2014年中的估值底，如果单纯关注经济数据，是很难想到未来牛市高度的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">每一次熊市，都会有很多宏大的担心，有些是错的，熊市会在错误逐渐证伪的情况下结束（比如2008年熊市）。有些宏大的担心是对的，但熊市依然会结束，因为股市估值会提前消化长期的担心，之后即使长期担心依然存在，股市可能会在完全不同的利多逻辑演绎下结束熊市。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">广发证券</a>对债务周期背景下的股市进行了研究。他们指出，债务周期下，海外股市大级别底部的形成有赖于企业/居民杠杆率的趋势回落。①泰国1994年—2002年：1997年经济泡沫达到高峰，股市直至2002年三季度在去杠杆较为充分后迎来大级别反转，2004年前后GDP增速才回到危机前峰值。②美国2007年-2009年金融危机：2007年四季度—2008年三季度居民/企业杠杆率陆续见顶回落，2009年一季度股市见底并开启大级别反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，债务风险的消化程度决定了市场底部坚实与否，大级别反转需要债务风险的显著出清：①日本二十世纪90年代前中期：前期债务风险出清缓慢，企业杠杆率直至1993年四季度才开始见顶回落，1990.9、1992.7、1995.6的股市底部都先后被突破；②德国1999年—2009年：2000年—2003年第一阶段去杠杆并不充分，2008年—2009年第二阶段债务风险显著消化，2009年一季度德国股市迎来大级别拐点。</p><p style=\"text-align: right;\"><br/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264deaae5d5fcaee3f3b1708dc19dfb2","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182723380","content_text":"就在刚才，外围又传来A股的重磅消息！1月23日早间，A股市场一度重挫，但随后迎来反攻，各大指数迅速翻红，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%以上。港股市场更是快速拉升，恒指涨幅扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。究竟有何利好刺激？据彭博社今早消息，目前，中国正在考虑采取一揽子措施来稳定股市，涉及的金额比较大。但上述消息未获官方证实。昨天晚上，国务院常务会议指出，要采取“强有力的”措施稳定资本市场。香港方面，香港特区行政长官李家超称，正密切留意股市波动情况，监管机构很谨慎留意变化，暂时认为市场运作有序，未见不寻常现象。那么，此次是否能够稳住市场？大反攻刚刚，股市的大反攻来了！在早盘急速杀跌之后，十点过后，做多资金突然进场，上证指数翻红，早盘一度跌超1%；创业板指劲升2%，阳光电源大涨近8%，锦浪科技、东方日升、帝尔激光、迈为股份等新能源权重股全线爆发。 与此同时，港股市场亦集体大爆发。早上开盘，恒生指数高开0.52%，科技股领涨，恒生科技指数涨0.88%，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴涨近2%。但亦是十点过后，恒生指数展开大反攻，涨幅快速扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。值得注意的是，北上资金突然一改常态，掉头做多，早上净买入超过20亿元。而A50期指亦是直线拉升。连人民币都被带动，快速升值。那么，究竟有何利好刺激？彭博社今早传来的消息指出，中国考虑为稳定基金提供离岸资金，这些政策可能在近期出台，涉及金额可能比较大。最近两天，A股市场持续下行，沪深300指数本周跌至五年低点，中证1000昨天亦创出阶段新低。在这种背景之下，昨天召开的国务院常务会议指出，要进一步健全完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡，大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度，增强市场内在稳定性。要加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，打造规范透明的市场环境。要采取更加有力有效措施，着力稳市场、稳信心。要增强宏观政策取向一致性，加强政策工具创新和协调配合，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，促进资本市场平稳健康发展。从估值来看，来自德邦证券的数据显示，截至2024年1月20日，A股总体PE（TTM）为15.51倍，2012年以来30%分位；创业板指PE（TTM）估值为25.28倍，2012年以来0%分位；从一致预期角度来看，全A总体PE（2023E）为14.66倍，总体PE（2024E）为12.39倍，分别为2012年以来28%、7%分位。目前A股估值水平处于历低位，港股的估值水平则更低，按理不至于跌成现在这样。市场能否企稳？估值如此之低，为何没人敢买？信达证券表示，以此前的市场为例，2012年底，上证综指的PE（TTM）比2008年的低点更低，但由于制造业投资持续下行，稳增长力度相比2008年底更小，所以投资者迟迟不敢大幅买入。因为之前的历次牛市大多由经济大幅回升驱动，而2013年—2015年的牛市，几乎是不依赖投资回升的，在此期间制造业投资依然还在持续下行。所以面临2012年底或2014年中的估值底，如果单纯关注经济数据，是很难想到未来牛市高度的。每一次熊市，都会有很多宏大的担心，有些是错的，熊市会在错误逐渐证伪的情况下结束（比如2008年熊市）。有些宏大的担心是对的，但熊市依然会结束，因为股市估值会提前消化长期的担心，之后即使长期担心依然存在，股市可能会在完全不同的利多逻辑演绎下结束熊市。广发证券对债务周期背景下的股市进行了研究。他们指出，债务周期下，海外股市大级别底部的形成有赖于企业/居民杠杆率的趋势回落。①泰国1994年—2002年：1997年经济泡沫达到高峰，股市直至2002年三季度在去杠杆较为充分后迎来大级别反转，2004年前后GDP增速才回到危机前峰值。②美国2007年-2009年金融危机：2007年四季度—2008年三季度居民/企业杠杆率陆续见顶回落，2009年一季度股市见底并开启大级别反转。此外，债务风险的消化程度决定了市场底部坚实与否，大级别反转需要债务风险的显著出清：①日本二十世纪90年代前中期：前期债务风险出清缓慢，企业杠杆率直至1993年四季度才开始见顶回落，1990.9、1992.7、1995.6的股市底部都先后被突破；②德国1999年—2009年：2000年—2003年第一阶段去杠杆并不充分，2008年—2009年第二阶段债务风险显著消化，2009年一季度德国股市迎来大级别拐点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358268339290240,"gmtCreate":1728486646308,"gmtModify":1728486887989,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3476405047536270","idStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"没有拿住，卖飞了，45的本，47清仓，不知道还有机会买入吗？","listText":"没有拿住，卖飞了，45的本，47清仓，不知道还有机会买入吗？","text":"没有拿住，卖飞了，45的本，47清仓，不知道还有机会买入吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358268339290240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":271668679954528,"gmtCreate":1707363190967,"gmtModify":1707372138399,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3476405047536270","idStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 扶不起的阿斗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 扶不起的阿斗","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 扶不起的阿斗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/271668679954528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359766300,"gmtCreate":1616424570900,"gmtModify":1616424570900,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3476405047536270","idStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>还有多少人拿着?出来冒个泡，成本多少?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>还有多少人拿着?出来冒个泡，成本多少?","text":"$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$还有多少人拿着?出来冒个泡，成本多少?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359766300","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3468840618486127","authorId":"3468840618486127","name":"Terry221","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/250f5e1f1709eb2dc84ee4f4de631549","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3468840618486127","idStr":"3468840618486127"},"content":"成本11.5. 3000股","text":"成本11.5. 3000股","html":"成本11.5. 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