山猪的Ego的个人主页 - 老虎社区

山猪的Ego

山猪的Ego

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IP属地：北京

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02-05

550 被裁了

Snap计划将全球全职员工人数裁减近10%

2023-10-16

看数据，单个机型比较，最贵的 pro max 依然爆单，华为还是比不过，在整个系列中成本比例最低，售价最高，销售额最好。iphone 五年前就基本定位了只割有钱人韭菜。

外媒：iPhone 15在中国首发销量较2022年下降4.5%

2023-03-25

有时间 bb 干点实事行吗 @周鸿祎

周鸿祎：中国大语言模型和GPT-4差距在两三年 GPT-6可能会产生意识

2023-02-05

$奈飞(NFLX)$ 今年肯定还得涨，但排除整个大经济环境对于 AdTech 的冲击，我个人更倾向于押注 $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ 主要是因为 meta 的元宇宙变现增长点未来 1-2 年还是不太可能凸显，但 fb ins WhatsApp 的全球化已经见顶，但反观 Snap 的全球增长尤其印度完全是一片蓝海，填补了 TikTok 的空缺，而 gg 和 meta 在印度的 ARPU 已经很高了，snap 刚刚从 meta 挖来印度的 vp Ajit 一旦开始在印度变现，很大概率能扭转局势。我个人 $10 半仓买入， 12 个月目标价 $20-25

@美股解毒师:SNAP暴雷已成习惯？投资者交易它要关注什么？

2022-09-08

AR 的广告商业化到底行不行

Snap涨超7%，首席执行官预计2023年收入增20%

2022-08-31

商务VP都很水

奈飞涨超5%，公司从Snap聘请高管领导广告销售团队

2022-08-31

靴子落地不降反升？$Snap Inc(SNAP)$

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-08-31

听说晚上9点 standby Evan 会开始发全体信

Snap盘前跌超7%，计划从周三开始裁员约20%

2022-05-12

深指和纳指现在曲线是如此的相似。。。。

2022-05-06

听说总统要变天？

美股暴跌！纳指跌5%，标普500跌超4%

2022-03-16

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$昨日收盘末班车 [暗中观察]

2020-06-05

$美国航空(AAL)$幸亏没有扔直接等到期有风险么？

2020-05-22

要起飞了

拼多多一季度营收同比增长44%，活跃买家数达6.28亿

2020-05-05

$触宝(CTK)$请问这股票为什么不支持做空？@小虎活动 @老虎专刊 @小虎周报

2020-04-30

要裁员了嘛

Facebook Says It Expects Scaling Headcount To Continue To Drive Expense Growth In 2020

2020-04-09

$美国航空(AAL)$抄几千大洋的

2020-04-06

$Zoom(ZM)$抄个底？

2020-04-05

同志们请问一下我这算不算对冲？$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$$美国原油ETF(USO)$$美国航空(AAL)$$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$

2020-04-02

$美国原油ETF(USO)$昨晚加的杠杆，险些被强制平仓，看见日出了

2020-03-25

赐我神力吧！

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-02-05 22:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Snap在向美国证监会提交的文件中宣布，计划将全球全职员工人数裁减近10%，目前预计将产生5500万至7500万美元的税前费用。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf5beb8769699ed76f9f6469c150065","relate_stocks":{"SNAP":"Snap 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14系列下降4.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Counterpoint估计，华为今年仅Mate 60 Pro销量就能达到500至600万部。以Edison Lee为首的杰富瑞证券分析师在今日发布的报告中写道，得益于华为新机型的意外亮相，现在其在市场上的销量已经超越了苹果，成为了第一名。iPhone 15的销量较其前代机型下降更为明显，这一下降幅度或达到两位数。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场研究机构CINNO Research此前预测，2023年中国智能机市场苹果手机销量或将达4550万部，同比小幅下滑2%，其中，预计苹果最新一代iPhone 15系列机型在2023年销量成绩或将在1000万部左右，对比上一代iPhone 14系列同期销量成绩下滑22%，减少约290万部。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">集邦咨询预估，iPhone15 Pro系列的产出占比有望拉升至六成以上。预估iPhone全年生产总数在2.2亿部至2.25亿部，同比下降约5%。</p><p>截至发稿，苹果盘前股价跌1.39%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb3a1e02840e13c7022b9e9facee631\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"127\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒：iPhone 15在中国首发销量较2022年下降4.5%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-10-16 17:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>华为的崛起影响苹果的销量？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">10月16日，市场研究公司Counterpoint Research数据显示，iPhone 15系列在中国首发17天内的销量较2022年发行的iPhone 14系列下降4.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Counterpoint估计，华为今年仅Mate 60 Pro销量就能达到500至600万部。以Edison Lee为首的杰富瑞证券分析师在今日发布的报告中写道，得益于华为新机型的意外亮相，现在其在市场上的销量已经超越了苹果，成为了第一名。iPhone 15的销量较其前代机型下降更为明显，这一下降幅度或达到两位数。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场研究机构CINNO Research此前预测，2023年中国智能机市场苹果手机销量或将达4550万部，同比小幅下滑2%，其中，预计苹果最新一代iPhone 15系列机型在2023年销量成绩或将在1000万部左右，对比上一代iPhone 14系列同期销量成绩下滑22%，减少约290万部。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">集邦咨询预估，iPhone15 Pro系列的产出占比有望拉升至六成以上。预估iPhone全年生产总数在2.2亿部至2.25亿部，同比下降约5%。</p><p>截至发稿，苹果盘前股价跌1.39%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb3a1e02840e13c7022b9e9facee631\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"127\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6914e93c9164756e50e870fdf5937a66","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117739424","content_text":"华为的崛起影响苹果的销量？10月16日，市场研究公司Counterpoint Research数据显示，iPhone 15系列在中国首发17天内的销量较2022年发行的iPhone 14系列下降4.5%。Counterpoint估计，华为今年仅Mate 60 Pro销量就能达到500至600万部。以Edison Lee为首的杰富瑞证券分析师在今日发布的报告中写道，得益于华为新机型的意外亮相，现在其在市场上的销量已经超越了苹果，成为了第一名。iPhone 15的销量较其前代机型下降更为明显，这一下降幅度或达到两位数。市场研究机构CINNO Research此前预测，2023年中国智能机市场苹果手机销量或将达4550万部，同比小幅下滑2%，其中，预计苹果最新一代iPhone 15系列机型在2023年销量成绩或将在1000万部左右，对比上一代iPhone 14系列同期销量成绩下滑22%，减少约290万部。集邦咨询预估，iPhone15 Pro系列的产出占比有望拉升至六成以上。预估iPhone全年生产总数在2.2亿部至2.25亿部，同比下降约5%。截至发稿，苹果盘前股价跌1.39%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3536230780751020","authorId":"3536230780751020","name":"专打做空","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3536230780751020","authorIdStr":"3536230780751020"},"content":"我有钱也没兴趣 钛合金简直丑爆了 反正这个版本非常不好看 同时外形也没有一点变化 真心提不起兴趣换机","text":"我有钱也没兴趣 钛合金简直丑爆了 反正这个版本非常不好看 同时外形也没有一点变化 真心提不起兴趣换机","html":"我有钱也没兴趣 钛合金简直丑爆了 反正这个版本非常不好看 同时外形也没有一点变化 真心提不起兴趣换机"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":659325720,"gmtCreate":1679741694360,"gmtModify":1679741697216,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474465660519471","authorIdStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有时间 bb 干点实事行吗 @周鸿祎","listText":"有时间 bb 干点实事行吗 @周鸿祎","text":"有时间 bb 干点实事行吗 @周鸿祎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659325720","repostId":"2322173960","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2322173960","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679722259,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2322173960?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-25 13:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"周鸿祎：中国大语言模型和GPT-4差距在两三年 GPT-6可能会产生意识","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2322173960","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"凤凰网科技讯 3月25日消息，在国务院发展研究中心主办的2023中国发展高层论坛开幕上，三六零集团创始人周鸿祎表示，中国大语言模型技术水平和GPT-4的差距在2到3年时间，目前GPT的技术方向已经明确，不存在难以逾越的技术障碍，中国企业应当坚持长期主义精神，迎头赶上。周鸿祎预计，GPT6到GPT8人工智能将会产生意识，变成新的物种。在GPT-3.5的时候，周鸿祎预言它将长出“眼睛和耳朵”，目前GPT-4已经具有看图的能力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：周鸿祎预计，GPT-6到GPT-8人工智能将会产生意识，变成新的物种。</blockquote><p>周鸿祎再次公开谈及自己对人工智能的未来判断。</p><p>3月25日，2023中国发展高层论坛开幕，三六零集团创始人周鸿祎以“人工智能与未来安全”为题发表主题演讲。</p><p>演讲中，周鸿祎展示了AI绘图生成的自画像，以及由大语言模型生成的开场白。他将人工智能发展划分为三个阶段：人工智障、强人工智能、超级人工智能。周鸿祎认为，GPT-4已经拥有超人的能力，具有真正的智能。</p><p>“GPT是场新工业革命，其意义超越了互联网、iPhone的发明。”周鸿祎表示，GPT将成为“发电厂”，数据是煤炭，GPT将“煤”变成“电”，输送给千行百业，所有行业都值得用GPT重塑一遍。未来，每个行业、企业、个人都会拥有定制化GPT。</p><p>周鸿祎认为中国有能力发展自己的人工智能大语言模型。<b>他表示，中国大语言模型技术水平和GPT-4的差距在2到3年时间，目前GPT的技术方向已经明确，不存在难以逾越的技术障碍，中国应当坚持长期主义精神，迎头赶上</b>。在场景化、工程化、产品化、商业化方面，中国拥有巨大优势，尤其在知识标注领域，中国拥有高端知识人才红利，人工智能训练师将成为新兴热门职业。</p><p>人工智能高速发展的同时，也将给人类带来多方面的挑战。大语言模型正在成为黑客的帮手，给数字安全带来巨大威胁，周鸿祎表示对此并不特别担心，真正值得担忧的是由此带来的“大安全”问题。</p><p>对于人工智能造成大规模失业的讨论，周鸿祎认为这是在制造焦虑，他乐观看待所谓的“失业”挑战。<b>他表示，人类的做决策、情感、想象力和创造力是人工智能短期无法取代的。人工智能大模型是人类发明的最伟大的工具，背后凝聚着全人类的知识成果，能够赋予普通人更强大的能力，未来有可能被淘汰的是不会问问题，不会使用人工智能大模型的人。</b></p><p>周鸿祎认为，制约人工智能发展的最大挑战是能源，人工智能应被用来反向帮助人类解决常温超导、核聚变等问题，帮助人类实现能源自由。</p><p><b>周鸿祎预计，GPT-6到GPT-8人工智能将会产生意识，变成新的物种。在GPT-3.5的时候，周鸿祎预言它将长出“眼睛和耳朵”，目前GPT-4已经具有看图的能力，初步印证了周鸿祎的判断。随着GPT已经进化出了“手”和“脚”，能够通过接入互联网API拥有操控世界的能力。</b></p><p>“未来，人工智能大语言模型有可能实现自我进化，自动更新系统和自我升级，或者指数级进化能力，人类将会面临不可预知的安全挑战。”周鸿祎认为，人工智能继续发展，人类将会实现数字永生。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>周鸿祎：中国大语言模型和GPT-4差距在两三年 GPT-6可能会产生意识</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n周鸿祎：中国大语言模型和GPT-4差距在两三年 GPT-6可能会产生意识\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-25 13:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684874><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：周鸿祎预计，GPT-6到GPT-8人工智能将会产生意识，变成新的物种。周鸿祎再次公开谈及自己对人工智能的未来判断。3月25日，2023中国发展高层论坛开幕，三六零集团创始人周鸿祎以“人工智能与未来安全”为题发表主题演讲。演讲中，周鸿祎展示了AI绘图生成的自画像，以及由大语言模型生成的开场白。他将人工智能发展划分为三个阶段：人工智障、强人工智能、超级人工智能。周鸿祎认为，GPT-4已经拥有超人...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684874\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/760056d3ed9e8c1a595c0d9f2094cc4d","relate_stocks":{"03601":"鲁大师","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684874","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2322173960","content_text":"摘要：周鸿祎预计，GPT-6到GPT-8人工智能将会产生意识，变成新的物种。周鸿祎再次公开谈及自己对人工智能的未来判断。3月25日，2023中国发展高层论坛开幕，三六零集团创始人周鸿祎以“人工智能与未来安全”为题发表主题演讲。演讲中，周鸿祎展示了AI绘图生成的自画像，以及由大语言模型生成的开场白。他将人工智能发展划分为三个阶段：人工智障、强人工智能、超级人工智能。周鸿祎认为，GPT-4已经拥有超人的能力，具有真正的智能。“GPT是场新工业革命，其意义超越了互联网、iPhone的发明。”周鸿祎表示，GPT将成为“发电厂”，数据是煤炭，GPT将“煤”变成“电”，输送给千行百业，所有行业都值得用GPT重塑一遍。未来，每个行业、企业、个人都会拥有定制化GPT。周鸿祎认为中国有能力发展自己的人工智能大语言模型。他表示，中国大语言模型技术水平和GPT-4的差距在2到3年时间，目前GPT的技术方向已经明确，不存在难以逾越的技术障碍，中国应当坚持长期主义精神，迎头赶上。在场景化、工程化、产品化、商业化方面，中国拥有巨大优势，尤其在知识标注领域，中国拥有高端知识人才红利，人工智能训练师将成为新兴热门职业。人工智能高速发展的同时，也将给人类带来多方面的挑战。大语言模型正在成为黑客的帮手，给数字安全带来巨大威胁，周鸿祎表示对此并不特别担心，真正值得担忧的是由此带来的“大安全”问题。对于人工智能造成大规模失业的讨论，周鸿祎认为这是在制造焦虑，他乐观看待所谓的“失业”挑战。他表示，人类的做决策、情感、想象力和创造力是人工智能短期无法取代的。人工智能大模型是人类发明的最伟大的工具，背后凝聚着全人类的知识成果，能够赋予普通人更强大的能力，未来有可能被淘汰的是不会问问题，不会使用人工智能大模型的人。周鸿祎认为，制约人工智能发展的最大挑战是能源，人工智能应被用来反向帮助人类解决常温超导、核聚变等问题，帮助人类实现能源自由。周鸿祎预计，GPT-6到GPT-8人工智能将会产生意识，变成新的物种。在GPT-3.5的时候，周鸿祎预言它将长出“眼睛和耳朵”，目前GPT-4已经具有看图的能力，初步印证了周鸿祎的判断。随着GPT已经进化出了“手”和“脚”，能够通过接入互联网API拥有操控世界的能力。“未来，人工智能大语言模型有可能实现自我进化，自动更新系统和自我升级，或者指数级进化能力，人类将会面临不可预知的安全挑战。”周鸿祎认为，人工智能继续发展，人类将会实现数字永生。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622675944,"gmtCreate":1675573765289,"gmtModify":1675579468296,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474465660519471","authorIdStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>今年肯定还得涨，但排除整个 大经济环境对于 AdTech 的冲击，我个人更倾向于押注 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$&nbsp;</a>主要是因为 meta 的元宇宙变现增长点未来 1-2 年还是不太可能凸显，但 fb ins WhatsApp 的全球化已经见顶，但反观 Snap 的全球增长尤其印度完全是一片蓝海，填补了 TikTok 的空缺，而 gg 和 meta 在印度的 ARPU 已经很高了，snap 刚刚从 meta 挖来印度的 vp Ajit 一旦开始在印度变现，很大概率能扭转局势。我个人 $10 半仓买入， 12 个月目标价 $20-25","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>今年肯定还得涨，但排除整个 大经济环境对于 AdTech 的冲击，我个人更倾向于押注 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$&nbsp;</a>主要是因为 meta 的元宇宙变现增长点未来 1-2 年还是不太可能凸显，但 fb ins WhatsApp 的全球化已经见顶，但反观 Snap 的全球增长尤其印度完全是一片蓝海，填补了 TikTok 的空缺，而 gg 和 meta 在印度的 ARPU 已经很高了，snap 刚刚从 meta 挖来印度的 vp Ajit 一旦开始在印度变现，很大概率能扭转局势。我个人 $10 半仓买入， 12 个月目标价 $20-25","text":"$奈飞(NFLX)$ 今年肯定还得涨，但排除整个 大经济环境对于 AdTech 的冲击，我个人更倾向于押注 $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ 主要是因为 meta 的元宇宙变现增长点未来 1-2 年还是不太可能凸显，但 fb ins WhatsApp 的全球化已经见顶，但反观 Snap 的全球增长尤其印度完全是一片蓝海，填补了 TikTok 的空缺，而 gg 和 meta 在印度的 ARPU 已经很高了，snap 刚刚从 meta 挖来印度的 vp Ajit 一旦开始在印度变现，很大概率能扭转局势。我个人 $10 半仓买入， 12 个月目标价 $20-25","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622675944","repostId":"622327784","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":622327784,"gmtCreate":1675233812648,"gmtModify":1675234119075,"author":{"id":"3440721572920950","authorId":"3440721572920950","name":"美股解毒师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440721572920950","authorIdStr":"3440721572920950"},"themes":[],"title":"SNAP暴雷已成习惯？投资者交易它要关注什么？","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a> 刚刚公布的Q4财报也是让市场大跌眼镜，但也不太意外。通讯行业的整体投资回报率都不高，而加息周期，更是受到广告行业萎靡的影响。曾经成长性极高的SNAP也比预期更早地迎来瓶颈。Q4业绩最显著的特征就是收入端的停滞，这让更多的用户增长变得效率低下。我们主要讨论两个问题：业绩前景、投资者画像。营收13亿美元，同比近增0.14%，还略差于预期的13.06亿美元；EBITDA为2.33亿美元，同比减少29%，高于市场预期的2.07亿美元；DAU为3.75亿，同比增长17%，与预期的3.747亿持平。基本面上需要关注什么？与<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 的投资者重视订阅数、轻营收利润不同，投资者对SNAP的活跃用户数已经不太感冒了。因此，即便DAU已经达到近4亿级别，且Q4依然还有17%的增长，也没有换回投资者信心。因此，市场更看重它的货币化能力。以前是因为高速成长期，利润率不太重要，只要营收（Top Line）高速增长（甚至达到同比三位数）还能给投资者讲故事。进入加息周期，投资者风险偏好下降，要开始看转化成利润的能力，于是也开始注重盈利。毕竟广告为主营业务的公司，利润率应该较高，行业标杆Facebook便是。但我们从Q4的各项费用支出来看，营销费用和行政费用的确有在收缩，但是依然还不够大，各项支出仍然大于市场预期，换句话说，还有继续压缩成本的空间。营收停滞恐怕是投资者最为担心的。衰退预期强烈，大环境不好，广告市场影响严重；营收结构太单一，也说明没有更多的增长点；容易受到行业竞争的打击更大，短视频、直播、娱乐类公司都能抢夺市场。因此SNAP也","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a> 刚刚公布的Q4财报也是让市场大跌眼镜，但也不太意外。通讯行业的整体投资回报率都不高，而加息周期，更是受到广告行业萎靡的影响。曾经成长性极高的SNAP也比预期更早地迎来瓶颈。Q4业绩最显著的特征就是收入端的停滞，这让更多的用户增长变得效率低下。我们主要讨论两个问题：业绩前景、投资者画像。营收13亿美元，同比近增0.14%，还略差于预期的13.06亿美元；EBITDA为2.33亿美元，同比减少29%，高于市场预期的2.07亿美元；DAU为3.75亿，同比增长17%，与预期的3.747亿持平。基本面上需要关注什么？与<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 的投资者重视订阅数、轻营收利润不同，投资者对SNAP的活跃用户数已经不太感冒了。因此，即便DAU已经达到近4亿级别，且Q4依然还有17%的增长，也没有换回投资者信心。因此，市场更看重它的货币化能力。以前是因为高速成长期，利润率不太重要，只要营收（Top Line）高速增长（甚至达到同比三位数）还能给投资者讲故事。进入加息周期，投资者风险偏好下降，要开始看转化成利润的能力，于是也开始注重盈利。毕竟广告为主营业务的公司，利润率应该较高，行业标杆Facebook便是。但我们从Q4的各项费用支出来看，营销费用和行政费用的确有在收缩，但是依然还不够大，各项支出仍然大于市场预期，换句话说，还有继续压缩成本的空间。营收停滞恐怕是投资者最为担心的。衰退预期强烈，大环境不好，广告市场影响严重；营收结构太单一，也说明没有更多的增长点；容易受到行业竞争的打击更大，短视频、直播、娱乐类公司都能抢夺市场。因此SNAP也","text":"$Snap Inc(SNAP)$ 刚刚公布的Q4财报也是让市场大跌眼镜，但也不太意外。通讯行业的整体投资回报率都不高，而加息周期，更是受到广告行业萎靡的影响。曾经成长性极高的SNAP也比预期更早地迎来瓶颈。Q4业绩最显著的特征就是收入端的停滞，这让更多的用户增长变得效率低下。我们主要讨论两个问题：业绩前景、投资者画像。营收13亿美元，同比近增0.14%，还略差于预期的13.06亿美元；EBITDA为2.33亿美元，同比减少29%，高于市场预期的2.07亿美元；DAU为3.75亿，同比增长17%，与预期的3.747亿持平。基本面上需要关注什么？与$奈飞(NFLX)$ 的投资者重视订阅数、轻营收利润不同，投资者对SNAP的活跃用户数已经不太感冒了。因此，即便DAU已经达到近4亿级别，且Q4依然还有17%的增长，也没有换回投资者信心。因此，市场更看重它的货币化能力。以前是因为高速成长期，利润率不太重要，只要营收（Top Line）高速增长（甚至达到同比三位数）还能给投资者讲故事。进入加息周期，投资者风险偏好下降，要开始看转化成利润的能力，于是也开始注重盈利。毕竟广告为主营业务的公司，利润率应该较高，行业标杆Facebook便是。但我们从Q4的各项费用支出来看，营销费用和行政费用的确有在收缩，但是依然还不够大，各项支出仍然大于市场预期，换句话说，还有继续压缩成本的空间。营收停滞恐怕是投资者最为担心的。衰退预期强烈，大环境不好，广告市场影响严重；营收结构太单一，也说明没有更多的增长点；容易受到行业竞争的打击更大，短视频、直播、娱乐类公司都能抢夺市场。因此SNAP也","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f2fecdba462e38c3822d2d9f902c5a","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e64dca789991acbc56f83e36b324cd","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0cf751c73f1b2d7afdeee8c9e4aaaf4","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622327784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":663007845,"gmtCreate":1662652286588,"gmtModify":1662652288951,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474465660519471","authorIdStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AR 的广告商业化到底行不行","listText":"AR 的广告商业化到底行不行","text":"AR 的广告商业化到底行不行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/663007845","repostId":"1150880818","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1150880818","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1662646151,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150880818?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-08 22:09","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Snap涨超7%，首席执行官预计2023年收入增20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150880818","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月8日，Snap(SNAP)涨超7%，首席执行官预计2023年收入增加20%达60亿美元，大行称该指引鼓舞人心。消息面上，Snap在9月6日发给员工的一份内部备忘录中，首席执行官埃文·斯皮格尔告诉员","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月8日，Snap(SNAP)涨超7%，首席执行官预计2023年收入增加20%达60亿美元，大行称该指引鼓舞人心。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42f4b8d1eef79b74505f2beedbdfb1d3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>消息面上，Snap在9月6日发给员工的一份内部备忘录中，首席执行官埃文·斯皮格尔告诉员工，公司的目标是到明年年底将Snapchat的日活跃用户增加30%达到4.5亿；2023年收入增加20%达60亿美元、调整后EBITDA达到15亿美元以及自由现金流实现超过10亿美元。斯皮格尔表示，该计划的收入中将有3.5亿美元来自Snapchat最近推出的付费订阅，他指出，根据Heath的报告，到今年年底，Snapchat的订户已有望达到400万。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>分析师发表研报，重申Snap“买入”评级，并指出该公司首席执行发布的内部备忘录令人鼓舞。分析师指出，虽然该备忘录可能是比较夸张的，但考虑到该公司最近所面临的所有问题，这是一个积极的因素。他表示，要实现这些目标，更有利的宏观环境可能是必要的，但鉴于对8月份营收预计增长12%-15%，Snapchat Plus的增长势头可能好于预期，而且未来的营收更容易实现增长，Snap的目标可能不需要显著的宏观环境改善。分析师预测，2023年的营收预期表明，广告商可能对Snap的AR技术表现出了积极的兴趣。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snap涨超7%，首席执行官预计2023年收入增20%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnap涨超7%，首席执行官预计2023年收入增20%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-08 22:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>9月8日，Snap(SNAP)涨超7%，首席执行官预计2023年收入增加20%达60亿美元，大行称该指引鼓舞人心。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42f4b8d1eef79b74505f2beedbdfb1d3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>消息面上，Snap在9月6日发给员工的一份内部备忘录中，首席执行官埃文·斯皮格尔告诉员工，公司的目标是到明年年底将Snapchat的日活跃用户增加30%达到4.5亿；2023年收入增加20%达60亿美元、调整后EBITDA达到15亿美元以及自由现金流实现超过10亿美元。斯皮格尔表示，该计划的收入中将有3.5亿美元来自Snapchat最近推出的付费订阅，他指出，根据Heath的报告，到今年年底，Snapchat的订户已有望达到400万。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>分析师发表研报，重申Snap“买入”评级，并指出该公司首席执行发布的内部备忘录令人鼓舞。分析师指出，虽然该备忘录可能是比较夸张的，但考虑到该公司最近所面临的所有问题，这是一个积极的因素。他表示，要实现这些目标，更有利的宏观环境可能是必要的，但鉴于对8月份营收预计增长12%-15%，Snapchat Plus的增长势头可能好于预期，而且未来的营收更容易实现增长，Snap的目标可能不需要显著的宏观环境改善。分析师预测，2023年的营收预期表明，广告商可能对Snap的AR技术表现出了积极的兴趣。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf5beb8769699ed76f9f6469c150065","relate_stocks":{"BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4508":"社交媒体","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4576":"AR","SNAP":"Snap Inc"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150880818","content_text":"9月8日，Snap(SNAP)涨超7%，首席执行官预计2023年收入增加20%达60亿美元，大行称该指引鼓舞人心。消息面上，Snap在9月6日发给员工的一份内部备忘录中，首席执行官埃文·斯皮格尔告诉员工，公司的目标是到明年年底将Snapchat的日活跃用户增加30%达到4.5亿；2023年收入增加20%达60亿美元、调整后EBITDA达到15亿美元以及自由现金流实现超过10亿美元。斯皮格尔表示，该计划的收入中将有3.5亿美元来自Snapchat最近推出的付费订阅，他指出，根据Heath的报告，到今年年底，Snapchat的订户已有望达到400万。美国银行分析师发表研报，重申Snap“买入”评级，并指出该公司首席执行发布的内部备忘录令人鼓舞。分析师指出，虽然该备忘录可能是比较夸张的，但考虑到该公司最近所面临的所有问题，这是一个积极的因素。他表示，要实现这些目标，更有利的宏观环境可能是必要的，但鉴于对8月份营收预计增长12%-15%，Snapchat Plus的增长势头可能好于预期，而且未来的营收更容易实现增长，Snap的目标可能不需要显著的宏观环境改善。分析师预测，2023年的营收预期表明，广告商可能对Snap的AR技术表现出了积极的兴趣。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669033333,"gmtCreate":1661960504527,"gmtModify":1661960504527,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474465660519471","authorIdStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"商务VP都很水","listText":"商务VP都很水","text":"商务VP都很水","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669033333","repostId":"1198919056","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198919056","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1661953856,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198919056?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-31 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21:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周三，奈飞涨超5%，周二公司宣布已从Snap聘请两名资深高管领导其广告销售团队。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627599f898e0f624f827915c889bbe54\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" 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会开始发全体信","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/660749305","repostId":"1124353149","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124353149","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1661933169,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124353149?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-31 16:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Snap盘前跌超7%，计划从周三开始裁员约20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124353149","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周三，Snap盘前跌超7%，报道称Snap计划从周三开始裁员约20%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周三，Snap盘前跌超7%，报道称Snap计划从周三开始裁员约20%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9675d0a61610b587ced12f13eabc1237\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"392\" 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23:55","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"美股暴跌！纳指跌5%，标普500跌超4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178836066","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月5日，美股跌幅持续扩大，纳指跌超5%，已抹去本周涨幅；标普500指数跌幅扩大至4%，道指跌3.44%。$蔚来(NIO)$跌超13%，$英伟达(NVDA)$跌超8%，$特斯拉(TSLA)$跌7.5%，$谷歌(GOOG)$跌超5%，$苹果(AAPL)$跌近5%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月5日，美股跌幅持续扩大，纳指跌超5%，已抹去本周涨幅；标普500指数跌幅扩大至4%，道指跌3.44%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌超13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>跌超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌7.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>跌近5%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b9ef4efdfd88902847ef72905282fdd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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[暗中观察]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bba813742bdc2bfab43fea80e37dc067","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634816059","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":958586889,"gmtCreate":1591317409341,"gmtModify":1704195305001,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474465660519471","authorIdStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>幸亏没有扔 直接等到期有风险么？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>幸亏没有扔 直接等到期有风险么？","text":"$美国航空(AAL)$幸亏没有扔 直接等到期有风险么？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/304c7609350712bfd3302dcced0651f5","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958586889","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3506429041602751","authorId":"3506429041602751","name":"yuankong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3506429041602751","authorIdStr":"3506429041602751"},"content":"都赚100%了，要是我就把本金先搞出来，其他就不管了。长期应该还是利好的，到11月还有那么久。","text":"都赚100%了，要是我就把本金先搞出来，其他就不管了。长期应该还是利好的，到11月还有那么久。","html":"都赚100%了，要是我就把本金先搞出来，其他就不管了。长期应该还是利好的，到11月还有那么久。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":953352885,"gmtCreate":1590143550247,"gmtModify":1704191982167,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474465660519471","authorIdStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"要起飞了","listText":"要起飞了","text":"要起飞了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/953352885","repostId":"1142898965","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142898965","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1590143473,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142898965?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-22 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http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>拼多多一季度营收同比增长44%，活跃买家数达6.28亿</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086160438\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">T-Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-04-30 21:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> Inc <fb.o>:Facebook</fb.o></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","09086":"华夏纳指-U"},"source_url":"https://www.trkd.thomsonreuters.com","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2031313852","content_text":"Facebook Inc 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VAS 收入还是占到腾讯全部应收的60-70%，主要包括游戏和视频两大业务的贡献。其中游戏还是主要大头，而王者荣耀的收入在2017年Q4的收入下滑还是关键原因。 我之前也分析过，腾讯游戏的收入，在过去两年的营收，70%都是王者荣耀这一款游戏贡献的，太过于依赖单款。而腾讯在2017年Q4 多款游戏发车的情况，也是证实了腾讯对于爆款过时的预警。尽管王者的营收下滑，但是多款其他游戏表现还是十分亮眼的，以至于 2018 年Q1 会有明显收获。 在这其中包括 QQ音速、奇迹觉醒、乱世王者 和 穿越火线 等都是吸金大作。可能很很多人预期的不一致的是，PUBG正版虽然很火，但是营收贡献也就是零头，反而带动了穿越火线的营收闷头大涨。 废话不多说了，腾讯的手游收入这个季度我预测会是18%的QoQ增长，成为历史最高成绩，VAS收入在Q1或将高达450亿人民币，也将成为历史最高，带动整体营收QoQ增长会会涨到10%以上","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/b893098a8ad9570dd438f0cbb75533eb"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":20,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189633","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13852,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"266179661221578","authorId":"266179661221578","name":"饭饭酱","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/91ce42b6b48b0804738620fe602a48cf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"266179661221578","authorIdStr":"266179661221578"},"content":"但是还要考虑的就是业绩的增长可能被提前消化了，股票是做的是预期，聪明的人早就已经操作完毕了，腾讯近些日子的连续涨幅或许已经抵消了财报影响的一部分。","text":"但是还要考虑的就是业绩的增长可能被提前消化了，股票是做的是预期，聪明的人早就已经操作完毕了，腾讯近些日子的连续涨幅或许已经抵消了财报影响的一部分。","html":"但是还要考虑的就是业绩的增长可能被提前消化了，股票是做的是预期，聪明的人早就已经操作完毕了，腾讯近些日子的连续涨幅或许已经抵消了财报影响的一部分。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":191103,"gmtCreate":1526530847305,"gmtModify":1704893158230,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474465660519471","authorIdStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"title":"写在我预测网易Q1财报之后","htmlText":"昨天夜里心潮澎湃的预测了一下网易$(NTES)$的财报 ，<a href=\"https://r.laohu8.com/lh4q\">网易 2018 Q1 财报预测</a>。 总结起来，我预测了Q1网易游戏QoQ将将持平，YoY为负 网易实际游戏部分营收 87.6亿元，QoQ +9%，YoY -18% 昨晚我也说过，总营收方面最大的不确定因素就是电商，但是财报出来确实还是意料之外但又是合理之中。很显然，网易电商并没有延续2017Q4的增长势头，2018Q1的营收仅为 37亿元，QoQ -20%，虽然净利润率在电商这块有提升2个点到 9.5%，很显然，网易电商上个季度明显调整了业务目标，更倾向于更快的盈利。这个盈利压力下，电商的下滑显然压垮了我对网易最后的希望。 大家也应该知道，网易游戏的利润率一贯保持在 60%左右，占到总利润的90%以上。网易这个Q1游戏业务的YoY明显下滑，导致EPS也明显miss了。 以后还是专心打新吧，虎牙$(HUYA)$的痛。","listText":"昨天夜里心潮澎湃的预测了一下网易$(NTES)$的财报 ，<a href=\"https://r.laohu8.com/lh4q\">网易 2018 Q1 财报预测</a>。 总结起来，我预测了Q1网易游戏QoQ将将持平，YoY为负 网易实际游戏部分营收 87.6亿元，QoQ +9%，YoY -18% 昨晚我也说过，总营收方面最大的不确定因素就是电商，但是财报出来确实还是意料之外但又是合理之中。很显然，网易电商并没有延续2017Q4的增长势头，2018Q1的营收仅为 37亿元，QoQ -20%，虽然净利润率在电商这块有提升2个点到 9.5%，很显然，网易电商上个季度明显调整了业务目标，更倾向于更快的盈利。这个盈利压力下，电商的下滑显然压垮了我对网易最后的希望。 大家也应该知道，网易游戏的利润率一贯保持在 60%左右，占到总利润的90%以上。网易这个Q1游戏业务的YoY明显下滑，导致EPS也明显miss了。 以后还是专心打新吧，虎牙$(HUYA)$的痛。","text":"昨天夜里心潮澎湃的预测了一下网易$(NTES)$的财报 ，网易 2018 Q1 财报预测。 总结起来，我预测了Q1网易游戏QoQ将将持平，YoY为负 网易实际游戏部分营收 87.6亿元，QoQ +9%，YoY -18% 昨晚我也说过，总营收方面最大的不确定因素就是电商，但是财报出来确实还是意料之外但又是合理之中。很显然，网易电商并没有延续2017Q4的增长势头，2018Q1的营收仅为 37亿元，QoQ -20%，虽然净利润率在电商这块有提升2个点到 9.5%，很显然，网易电商上个季度明显调整了业务目标，更倾向于更快的盈利。这个盈利压力下，电商的下滑显然压垮了我对网易最后的希望。 大家也应该知道，网易游戏的利润率一贯保持在 60%左右，占到总利润的90%以上。网易这个Q1游戏业务的YoY明显下滑，导致EPS也明显miss了。 以后还是专心打新吧，虎牙$(HUYA)$的痛。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191103","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3480300888703096","authorId":"3480300888703096","name":"荒野侦探","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/676ca151c5979a45c1864347e2da198a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3480300888703096","authorIdStr":"3480300888703096"},"content":"网易虽心痛，不心痛虎牙。楼主觉得做空虎牙ok吗","text":"网易虽心痛，不心痛虎牙。楼主觉得做空虎牙ok吗","html":"网易虽心痛，不心痛虎牙。楼主觉得做空虎牙ok吗"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":190684,"gmtCreate":1526476235573,"gmtModify":1704893099859,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474465660519471","authorIdStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"title":"网易 2018 Q1 财报预测","htmlText":"刚刚平复一下看完腾讯财报的激动心情，现在来说说明天一早报道的网易$(NTES)$。 差不多2017年后半年开始，看空网易的声音越滚越大，风评也两极分化越发严重。上个季度 Q4，网易在吃鸡手游的国际化道路上捷足先登，但是离盈利还很远，楚留香也是雷声大雨点小，阴阳师、梦幻西游、倩女幽魂等经典IP一片唱衰，当时都不知道拿什么来拯救已经掉到谷底的网易。但鉴于网易铁粉的一贯氪金能力，我还是给出了保守预期，基本上QoQ持平。 但是，万万没想到，网易业务版图的一匹黑马冲了出来，那就是电商。 很多人也许不太知道，其实网易几年前就有在布局。网易压了三块宝：电商、博彩、贵金属。 网易近两年，60-70%的营收还都是来自于线上游戏，这其中还有 60-70%的营收来自于手游。但是这个比例一直都有下降的趋势，一小部分原因是网易的游戏盈利能力的下滑，更主要的，那就是网易电商盈利水平的大幅跨越。 2017 Q4 网易电商业务营收的 QoQ 增长为 +74.4%，占总营收的 32%。这也就是为什么网易线上游戏业务的营收在负增长的情况下，依然坚挺地交出了总营收 QoQ +17%的成绩。 但是，这依然无法阻挡投资机构对网易这家公司的看空。 这是我对网易营收QoQ 过去几个季度的预测。 2018 Q1，楚留香的盈利能力起来了，荒野行动在海外多个国家都站得很稳，营收增长非常厉害，三成以上的收入还是来自于梦幻西游和阴阳师在Q1的强力抖擞，我个人整体还是对网易的游戏收入抱有保守态度，基本会和上个Q持平。 但是最大的不确定因素还是电商，网易严选、考拉，上个季度都表现不一般。 &nbsp; 按照之前的趋势，我大胆预测，网易游戏业务的YoY增长为负，QoQ 勉强持平。最为亮眼的还是网易电商，总营收会突破160亿元，仍然历史最高，QoQ在 +9% 以上。","listText":"刚刚平复一下看完腾讯财报的激动心情，现在来说说明天一早报道的网易$(NTES)$。 差不多2017年后半年开始，看空网易的声音越滚越大，风评也两极分化越发严重。上个季度 Q4，网易在吃鸡手游的国际化道路上捷足先登，但是离盈利还很远，楚留香也是雷声大雨点小，阴阳师、梦幻西游、倩女幽魂等经典IP一片唱衰，当时都不知道拿什么来拯救已经掉到谷底的网易。但鉴于网易铁粉的一贯氪金能力，我还是给出了保守预期，基本上QoQ持平。 但是，万万没想到，网易业务版图的一匹黑马冲了出来，那就是电商。 很多人也许不太知道，其实网易几年前就有在布局。网易压了三块宝：电商、博彩、贵金属。 网易近两年，60-70%的营收还都是来自于线上游戏，这其中还有 60-70%的营收来自于手游。但是这个比例一直都有下降的趋势，一小部分原因是网易的游戏盈利能力的下滑，更主要的，那就是网易电商盈利水平的大幅跨越。 2017 Q4 网易电商业务营收的 QoQ 增长为 +74.4%，占总营收的 32%。这也就是为什么网易线上游戏业务的营收在负增长的情况下，依然坚挺地交出了总营收 QoQ +17%的成绩。 但是，这依然无法阻挡投资机构对网易这家公司的看空。 这是我对网易营收QoQ 过去几个季度的预测。 2018 Q1，楚留香的盈利能力起来了，荒野行动在海外多个国家都站得很稳，营收增长非常厉害，三成以上的收入还是来自于梦幻西游和阴阳师在Q1的强力抖擞，我个人整体还是对网易的游戏收入抱有保守态度，基本会和上个Q持平。 但是最大的不确定因素还是电商，网易严选、考拉，上个季度都表现不一般。 &nbsp; 按照之前的趋势，我大胆预测，网易游戏业务的YoY增长为负，QoQ 勉强持平。最为亮眼的还是网易电商，总营收会突破160亿元，仍然历史最高，QoQ在 +9% 以上。","text":"刚刚平复一下看完腾讯财报的激动心情，现在来说说明天一早报道的网易$(NTES)$。 差不多2017年后半年开始，看空网易的声音越滚越大，风评也两极分化越发严重。上个季度 Q4，网易在吃鸡手游的国际化道路上捷足先登，但是离盈利还很远，楚留香也是雷声大雨点小，阴阳师、梦幻西游、倩女幽魂等经典IP一片唱衰，当时都不知道拿什么来拯救已经掉到谷底的网易。但鉴于网易铁粉的一贯氪金能力，我还是给出了保守预期，基本上QoQ持平。 但是，万万没想到，网易业务版图的一匹黑马冲了出来，那就是电商。 很多人也许不太知道，其实网易几年前就有在布局。网易压了三块宝：电商、博彩、贵金属。 网易近两年，60-70%的营收还都是来自于线上游戏，这其中还有 60-70%的营收来自于手游。但是这个比例一直都有下降的趋势，一小部分原因是网易的游戏盈利能力的下滑，更主要的，那就是网易电商盈利水平的大幅跨越。 2017 Q4 网易电商业务营收的 QoQ 增长为 +74.4%，占总营收的 32%。这也就是为什么网易线上游戏业务的营收在负增长的情况下，依然坚挺地交出了总营收 QoQ +17%的成绩。 但是，这依然无法阻挡投资机构对网易这家公司的看空。 这是我对网易营收QoQ 过去几个季度的预测。 2018 Q1，楚留香的盈利能力起来了，荒野行动在海外多个国家都站得很稳，营收增长非常厉害，三成以上的收入还是来自于梦幻西游和阴阳师在Q1的强力抖擞，我个人整体还是对网易的游戏收入抱有保守态度，基本会和上个Q持平。 但是最大的不确定因素还是电商，网易严选、考拉，上个季度都表现不一般。 按照之前的趋势，我大胆预测，网易游戏业务的YoY增长为负，QoQ 勉强持平。最为亮眼的还是网易电商，总营收会突破160亿元，仍然历史最高，QoQ在 +9% 以上。","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/97fac68d881b8870074044d6d384b0ca"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190684","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":12560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3484273392061494","authorId":"3484273392061494","name":"老韭菜发新芽","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a62cc3f9e59480bb26c11bb3756e2d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3484273392061494","authorIdStr":"3484273392061494"},"content":"如果大神预测的对，那么要跌了","text":"如果大神预测的对，那么要跌了","html":"如果大神预测的对，那么要跌了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":188334,"gmtCreate":1525941146636,"gmtModify":1704892777904,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474465660519471","authorIdStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"title":"微博的替代品终于出现了","htmlText":"$微博(WB)$ 抖音强势国际化，国内微博也留不住人了。微博强势看跌。","listText":"$微博(WB)$ 抖音强势国际化，国内微博也留不住人了。微博强势看跌。","text":"$微博(WB)$ 抖音强势国际化，国内微博也留不住人了。微博强势看跌。","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/83257df8174a0d2d2fec37d82863b94f"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":25,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188334","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"20727972514030","authorId":"20727972514030","name":"Tony特别帅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61f671464b0bc8103579e8d0e2197c48","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"20727972514030","authorIdStr":"20727972514030"},"content":"抖音现在有社交雏形，就看发展怎样了","text":"抖音现在有社交雏形，就看发展怎样了","html":"抖音现在有社交雏形，就看发展怎样了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921988896,"gmtCreate":1586091677715,"gmtModify":1704360062538,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474465660519471","authorIdStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"同志们请问一下我这算不算对冲？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UWT\">$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDX\">$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$</a>","listText":"同志们请问一下我这算不算对冲？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UWT\">$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDX\">$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$</a>","text":"同志们请问一下我这算不算对冲？$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$$美国原油ETF(USO)$$美国航空(AAL)$$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3314db73eaa08f47015622e72af9e41","width":"1242","height":"2208"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921988896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3544260724709428","authorId":"3544260724709428","name":"空軍大队长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209301da2e55d18dfad0d8c14b834812","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3544260724709428","authorIdStr":"3544260724709428"},"content":"石油高位不平下周就要开始跌了","text":"石油高位不平下周就要开始跌了","html":"石油高位不平下周就要开始跌了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":659325720,"gmtCreate":1679741694360,"gmtModify":1679741697216,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474465660519471","authorIdStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有时间 bb 干点实事行吗 @周鸿祎","listText":"有时间 bb 干点实事行吗 @周鸿祎","text":"有时间 bb 干点实事行吗 @周鸿祎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659325720","repostId":"2322173960","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2322173960","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679722259,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2322173960?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-25 13:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"周鸿祎：中国大语言模型和GPT-4差距在两三年 GPT-6可能会产生意识","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2322173960","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"凤凰网科技讯 3月25日消息，在国务院发展研究中心主办的2023中国发展高层论坛开幕上，三六零集团创始人周鸿祎表示，中国大语言模型技术水平和GPT-4的差距在2到3年时间，目前GPT的技术方向已经明确，不存在难以逾越的技术障碍，中国企业应当坚持长期主义精神，迎头赶上。周鸿祎预计，GPT6到GPT8人工智能将会产生意识，变成新的物种。在GPT-3.5的时候，周鸿祎预言它将长出“眼睛和耳朵”，目前GPT-4已经具有看图的能力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：周鸿祎预计，GPT-6到GPT-8人工智能将会产生意识，变成新的物种。</blockquote><p>周鸿祎再次公开谈及自己对人工智能的未来判断。</p><p>3月25日，2023中国发展高层论坛开幕，三六零集团创始人周鸿祎以“人工智能与未来安全”为题发表主题演讲。</p><p>演讲中，周鸿祎展示了AI绘图生成的自画像，以及由大语言模型生成的开场白。他将人工智能发展划分为三个阶段：人工智障、强人工智能、超级人工智能。周鸿祎认为，GPT-4已经拥有超人的能力，具有真正的智能。</p><p>“GPT是场新工业革命，其意义超越了互联网、iPhone的发明。”周鸿祎表示，GPT将成为“发电厂”，数据是煤炭，GPT将“煤”变成“电”，输送给千行百业，所有行业都值得用GPT重塑一遍。未来，每个行业、企业、个人都会拥有定制化GPT。</p><p>周鸿祎认为中国有能力发展自己的人工智能大语言模型。<b>他表示，中国大语言模型技术水平和GPT-4的差距在2到3年时间，目前GPT的技术方向已经明确，不存在难以逾越的技术障碍，中国应当坚持长期主义精神，迎头赶上</b>。在场景化、工程化、产品化、商业化方面，中国拥有巨大优势，尤其在知识标注领域，中国拥有高端知识人才红利，人工智能训练师将成为新兴热门职业。</p><p>人工智能高速发展的同时，也将给人类带来多方面的挑战。大语言模型正在成为黑客的帮手，给数字安全带来巨大威胁，周鸿祎表示对此并不特别担心，真正值得担忧的是由此带来的“大安全”问题。</p><p>对于人工智能造成大规模失业的讨论，周鸿祎认为这是在制造焦虑，他乐观看待所谓的“失业”挑战。<b>他表示，人类的做决策、情感、想象力和创造力是人工智能短期无法取代的。人工智能大模型是人类发明的最伟大的工具，背后凝聚着全人类的知识成果，能够赋予普通人更强大的能力，未来有可能被淘汰的是不会问问题，不会使用人工智能大模型的人。</b></p><p>周鸿祎认为，制约人工智能发展的最大挑战是能源，人工智能应被用来反向帮助人类解决常温超导、核聚变等问题，帮助人类实现能源自由。</p><p><b>周鸿祎预计，GPT-6到GPT-8人工智能将会产生意识，变成新的物种。在GPT-3.5的时候，周鸿祎预言它将长出“眼睛和耳朵”，目前GPT-4已经具有看图的能力，初步印证了周鸿祎的判断。随着GPT已经进化出了“手”和“脚”，能够通过接入互联网API拥有操控世界的能力。</b></p><p>“未来，人工智能大语言模型有可能实现自我进化，自动更新系统和自我升级，或者指数级进化能力，人类将会面临不可预知的安全挑战。”周鸿祎认为，人工智能继续发展，人类将会实现数字永生。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>周鸿祎：中国大语言模型和GPT-4差距在两三年 GPT-6可能会产生意识</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-25 13:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684874><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：周鸿祎预计，GPT-6到GPT-8人工智能将会产生意识，变成新的物种。周鸿祎再次公开谈及自己对人工智能的未来判断。3月25日，2023中国发展高层论坛开幕，三六零集团创始人周鸿祎以“人工智能与未来安全”为题发表主题演讲。演讲中，周鸿祎展示了AI绘图生成的自画像，以及由大语言模型生成的开场白。他将人工智能发展划分为三个阶段：人工智障、强人工智能、超级人工智能。周鸿祎认为，GPT-4已经拥有超人...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684874\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/760056d3ed9e8c1a595c0d9f2094cc4d","relate_stocks":{"03601":"鲁大师","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684874","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2322173960","content_text":"摘要：周鸿祎预计，GPT-6到GPT-8人工智能将会产生意识，变成新的物种。周鸿祎再次公开谈及自己对人工智能的未来判断。3月25日，2023中国发展高层论坛开幕，三六零集团创始人周鸿祎以“人工智能与未来安全”为题发表主题演讲。演讲中，周鸿祎展示了AI绘图生成的自画像，以及由大语言模型生成的开场白。他将人工智能发展划分为三个阶段：人工智障、强人工智能、超级人工智能。周鸿祎认为，GPT-4已经拥有超人的能力，具有真正的智能。“GPT是场新工业革命，其意义超越了互联网、iPhone的发明。”周鸿祎表示，GPT将成为“发电厂”，数据是煤炭，GPT将“煤”变成“电”，输送给千行百业，所有行业都值得用GPT重塑一遍。未来，每个行业、企业、个人都会拥有定制化GPT。周鸿祎认为中国有能力发展自己的人工智能大语言模型。他表示，中国大语言模型技术水平和GPT-4的差距在2到3年时间，目前GPT的技术方向已经明确，不存在难以逾越的技术障碍，中国应当坚持长期主义精神，迎头赶上。在场景化、工程化、产品化、商业化方面，中国拥有巨大优势，尤其在知识标注领域，中国拥有高端知识人才红利，人工智能训练师将成为新兴热门职业。人工智能高速发展的同时，也将给人类带来多方面的挑战。大语言模型正在成为黑客的帮手，给数字安全带来巨大威胁，周鸿祎表示对此并不特别担心，真正值得担忧的是由此带来的“大安全”问题。对于人工智能造成大规模失业的讨论，周鸿祎认为这是在制造焦虑，他乐观看待所谓的“失业”挑战。他表示，人类的做决策、情感、想象力和创造力是人工智能短期无法取代的。人工智能大模型是人类发明的最伟大的工具，背后凝聚着全人类的知识成果，能够赋予普通人更强大的能力，未来有可能被淘汰的是不会问问题，不会使用人工智能大模型的人。周鸿祎认为，制约人工智能发展的最大挑战是能源，人工智能应被用来反向帮助人类解决常温超导、核聚变等问题，帮助人类实现能源自由。周鸿祎预计，GPT-6到GPT-8人工智能将会产生意识，变成新的物种。在GPT-3.5的时候，周鸿祎预言它将长出“眼睛和耳朵”，目前GPT-4已经具有看图的能力，初步印证了周鸿祎的判断。随着GPT已经进化出了“手”和“脚”，能够通过接入互联网API拥有操控世界的能力。“未来，人工智能大语言模型有可能实现自我进化，自动更新系统和自我升级，或者指数级进化能力，人类将会面临不可预知的安全挑战。”周鸿祎认为，人工智能继续发展，人类将会实现数字永生。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":958586889,"gmtCreate":1591317409341,"gmtModify":1704195305001,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474465660519471","authorIdStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/35433028694349\">@老虎专刊</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/36979109942400\">@小虎周报</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTK\">$触宝(CTK)$</a>请问这股票为什么不支持做空？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/36984908995200\">@小虎活动</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/35433028694349\">@老虎专刊</a><a 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乱世中图得一把好手","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6305b2551bf43efb77d489482c52d5a"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/232917","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669091367,"gmtCreate":1661956135963,"gmtModify":1661956135963,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474465660519471","authorIdStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"靴子落地 不降反升？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a>","listText":"靴子落地 不降反升？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a>","text":"靴子落地 不降反升？$Snap Inc(SNAP)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669091367","repostId":"2263744635","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2263744635","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661899335,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2263744635?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-31 06:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Snap计划自周三起裁员约20%，盘后跌超6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2263744635","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，据美国科技媒体网站The Verge报道，知名社交网络平台Snap 计划从周三开始裁员约20%。周二美股盘后，Snap一度跌近6%。截至发稿，Snap盘后跌超5.49%至9.460美元。Snap旗下APP Snapchat为“阅后即焚”社交模式的开创者。据了解，Snap拥有逾6400名员工，这也意味着这一轮裁员数量远超1000人。今年5月，Snap发布了一份影响行业走势的业绩指引之后，其股价大幅走弱至今仍未修复。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，据美国科技媒体网站The Verge报道，知名社交网络平台<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap</a>计划从周三开始裁员约20%。周二美股盘后，Snap跌超6%。</p><p>据媒体报道，该公司已经耗费数周时间来制定裁员计划，但裁员人数并不均衡。据悉，将大幅裁员的团队包括在Snapchat内部开发迷你应用程序和游戏的团队，以及社交地图部门Zenly，以及负责Snap Spectacles和最近被搁置的Pixy无人机的硬件部门。The Verge报道称，广告销售业务也在进行改组。Snap旗下APP Snapchat为“阅后即焚”社交模式的开创者。</p><p>据了解，Snap拥有逾6400名员工，这也意味着这一轮裁员数量远超1000人。</p><p>今年5月，Snap发布了一份影响行业走势的业绩指引之后，其股价大幅走弱至今仍未修复。自那以来，实际裁员(不仅仅是招聘放缓)的阴影一直笼罩着Snap和绝大多数互联网同行。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snap计划自周三起裁员约20%，盘后跌超6%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnap计划自周三起裁员约20%，盘后跌超6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-31 06:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/784714.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，据美国科技媒体网站The Verge报道，知名社交网络平台Snap计划从周三开始裁员约20%。周二美股盘后，Snap跌超6%。据媒体报道，该公司已经耗费数周时间来制定裁员计划，但裁员人数并不均衡。据悉，将大幅裁员的团队包括在Snapchat内部开发迷你应用程序和游戏的团队，以及社交地图部门Zenly，以及负责Snap Spectacles和最近被搁置的Pixy无人机的硬件部门。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/784714.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf5beb8769699ed76f9f6469c150065","relate_stocks":{"BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4508":"社交媒体","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4576":"AR","SNAP":"Snap Inc","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/784714.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2263744635","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，据美国科技媒体网站The Verge报道，知名社交网络平台Snap计划从周三开始裁员约20%。周二美股盘后，Snap跌超6%。据媒体报道，该公司已经耗费数周时间来制定裁员计划，但裁员人数并不均衡。据悉，将大幅裁员的团队包括在Snapchat内部开发迷你应用程序和游戏的团队，以及社交地图部门Zenly，以及负责Snap Spectacles和最近被搁置的Pixy无人机的硬件部门。The Verge报道称，广告销售业务也在进行改组。Snap旗下APP Snapchat为“阅后即焚”社交模式的开创者。据了解，Snap拥有逾6400名员工，这也意味着这一轮裁员数量远超1000人。今年5月，Snap发布了一份影响行业走势的业绩指引之后，其股价大幅走弱至今仍未修复。自那以来，实际裁员(不仅仅是招聘放缓)的阴影一直笼罩着Snap和绝大多数互联网同行。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":930825823,"gmtCreate":1568190900462,"gmtModify":1704717410367,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474465660519471","authorIdStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"滴滴不敢上市了","listText":"滴滴不敢上市了","text":"滴滴不敢上市了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/930825823","repostId":"1128058721","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}