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David king
个人简介:股市警言:1. 贪婪与恐惧:2. 敬畏市场。
IP属地:广东
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David king
05-07
经济不好,买的都是国产低价机。要不要晒一下各家的平均售价
历史性一幕!iPhone在华市场份额跌出前五
David king
04-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
想着财报后100捡漏的梦想家希望破灭了
David king
04-19
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
大家都在等着财报后一把梭哈吗[龇牙]
David king
02-23
$英伟达(NVDA)$
暴涨的时候还在给大家画饼引诱入场的,基本上是庄家的老套路了。币圈和股市都有无数个例子。看看英伟达最后跌倒多少。
David king
02-05
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
痛快!
David king
01-30
$拼多多(PDD)$
Tesla跌完PDD跌,PDD跌完谁来跌?
David king
2023-10-26
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
说个可行的办法,特斯拉或者福特、通用出价收购苟延残喘的FF,可将其作为旗下豪华品牌或者弄个豪华系列产品。收购价比现在市值高几倍,不至于花费太大。不过这样贾老板只能客居他乡一辈子了
David king
2023-10-16
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
恒大不恒大,法拉第未来无未来,大骗局终归要走向破灭的结局了!
David king
2023-06-22
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
这货还没退市?为20登顶的勇士表示钦佩[强] [强] [强]
David king
2021-05-19
$拼多多(PDD)$
拼夕夕最拿手的绝活就是突然一个旱地拔葱[开心]
David king
2021-04-27
看到最后,作者做空特斯拉,搞笑
马斯克出售比特币获利补亏!剔除非主营收益,特斯拉一季度税前亏损8600万美元
David king
2021-04-19
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
今日数你最火!
David king
2021-03-26
$游戏驿站(GME)$
如果GME也接受BTC结算,股价会怎样?😄
David king
2021-03-25
$拼多多(PDD)$
6折拼夕夕,7折阿里,难得的促销季!
David king
2021-03-10
$游戏驿站(GME)$
desperado
David king
2021-02-26
看着大家口口马,真是[开心]
抱歉,原内容已删除
David king
2021-02-23
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
6字头的Tesla,好久不见了
David king
2021-02-21
$联合大陆航空(UAL)$
若周一出现飞机引擎坠落事件的下跌,是个不错的机会
David king
2021-02-03
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
说个很有趣的现象,巴巴和脸书的股价是心心相惜
David king
2021-02-02
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
210不买,260不买;等到300+就开始买了。就是这么任性
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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Max继续占据最高端细分市场的主导地位。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月6日,市场调研机构TechInsights发布最新数据。2024年一季度,中国智能手机出货量为6330万台,同比增长1%。结束了连续11个季度的下滑。在头部厂商排名中,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>以13.7%的市场份额跌出了前五名,加入“others”(其他)行列。同期,华为出货量同比大幅增长118.8%,位居市占率第三。</p><p>苹果已经不再位于前五排名之中。数据显示,统计期内,中国本土四大厂商市场份额不相上下:OPPO/一加,凭借17.1%的市场份额,领跑中国智能手机市场;荣耀、华为和vivo,分列二至四名,其市场份额分别为16.7%、16.6%和16.1%。此外,小米以15.0%的市场份额位居第五。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d340e915595514021981a5d2d5cf1057\" alt=\"图源TechInsights\" title=\"图源TechInsights\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"375\"/><span>图源TechInsights</span></p><p>“那里(中国)的一些消费者,不再将苹果的旗舰产品视为技术最先进的产品。”</p><p>在5月3日的一篇报道中,美国媒体《华尔街日报》在评论中写道。</p><p>在一些媒体看来,苹果正在失去在华市场的顶级吸引力。据苹果此前公开的业绩,苹果今年第一季度的全球销售额,同比去年下降了4.3%。一个重要原因是苹果在自己的战略重镇——大中华区受挫。在这一市场,苹果当季销售额为164亿美元,下降了8%。</p><p>有观点认为,iPhone等产品,在引入人工智能等方面表现“落后”。文章表示,华为、vivo、小米和荣耀等品牌,纷纷为其产品提供内置的AI功能——据研究公司Canalys消息,韩国三星也进入了“人工智能手机”市场——但是,iPhone至今没有做出什么动作。</p><p>评论认为,硬件和性能缺乏重大进步是中国消费者不购买新iPhone的重要理由。一些用户,延长了旧iPhone的使用寿命,不再购买苹果新产品。与此同时,尽管受到美国的制裁,但华为等品牌仍推出了功能先进的手机,一些用户转而使用国产手机。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bc09bec0d791ae5d67fca096f116685\" alt=\"报道截图\" title=\"报道截图\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"234\"/><span>报道截图</span></p><p>消费者仍在用脚投票。</p><p>例如文章援引消费者说法称,华为在相机、电池续航、电话信号等方面,有优于苹果的表现。因为美国对华为的打压,华为手机被阻止使用最新的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌A</a>ndroid组件。这导致在海外出行时,华为手机无法访问谷歌地图,这曾让一些用户被迫考虑“改用iPhone”,但事实上,一些应用程序可以解决这一问题。</p><p>“我更没有理由改用iPhone。”有消费者在接受采访时如是说。</p><p>激烈的市场竞争,正让苹果感到乏力。</p><p>文章援引报告称,在中国高端智能手机市场,本土品牌的竞争日益激烈,这导致iPhone 15系列整体表现不佳。尽管iPhone 15 Pro Max继续占据最高端细分市场的主导地位。但遭受美国制裁的华为,凭借自主研发的芯片卷土重来。今年4月,华为推出了新型号Pura 70系列,配备了比以前更强大的芯片。</p><p>从市场表现来看,制裁不能阻止中国企业取得市场进展。据市场研究机构TechInsights数据,2024年第一季度,中国智能手机出货量为6330万台。其中,华为的出货量为1050万台。此外,OPPO一季度的出货量为1070万台,荣耀的出货量为1060万台。</p><p>向来回避折扣的苹果,试图挽回颓势。苹果在今年1月曾推出折扣活动,为用户提供50元到800元不等的优惠。但从结果来看,这也未能阻击中国本土企业的强劲势头。报道认为,苹果最近推出的大多数手机型号,其售价均超过600美元(约合4330元人民币)。但相比之下,中国本土厂商拥有更广泛的产品线,更容易吸引消费者。</p><p>由于口径、数据等方面的差异,不同机构的报告互有差异,但均展示出苹果手机的颓势。</p><p>4月25日,国际数据公司(IDC)发布的最新手机季度跟踪报告显示,2024年第一季度,中国智能手机市场出货量约6926万台,同比增长6.5%。其中,荣耀首季度在中国市场份额17.1%,同比增幅达13.2%,位列第一,华为自去年8月底回归以后快速恢复,今年第一季度已经并列中国市场第一,同比增幅超过100%。OPPO与苹果则并列第三位。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04ec0079e3a3723f4efd8a232ef759f\" alt=\"图源IDC\" title=\"图源IDC\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"561\"/><span>图源IDC</span></p><p>据Canalys4月26日发布的最新报告,2024年第一季度,苹果在头五厂商中跌幅最大,以1000万台的出货量排名第五,同比下降25%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/996e54ffe1f89cce2438638891b3494a\" alt=\"图源Canalys\" title=\"图源Canalys\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span>图源Canalys</span></p><p></p></body></html>","source":"gczw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>历史性一幕!iPhone在华市场份额跌出前五</title>\n<style 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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5MjA4MjA4MA==&mid=2655158130&idx=4&sn=9e4cf373b58b8951f50124f4fe623369&chksm=bc9bb193b60a07a4f92a68dd23b0228623f9327697cd111cea32efe8171100479fb0d8cc4fe6&scene=0&xtrack=1#rd><strong>观察者网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5月6日,市场调研机构TechInsights发布最新数据。2024年一季度,中国智能手机出货量为6330万台,同比增长1%。结束了连续11个季度的下滑。在头部厂商排名中,苹果以13.7%的市场份额跌出了前五名,加入“others”(其他)行列。同期,华为出货量同比大幅增长118.8%,位居市占率第三。苹果已经不再位于前五排名之中。数据显示,统计期内,中国本土四大厂商市场份额不相上下:OPPO/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5MjA4MjA4MA==&mid=2655158130&idx=4&sn=9e4cf373b58b8951f50124f4fe623369&chksm=bc9bb193b60a07a4f92a68dd23b0228623f9327697cd111cea32efe8171100479fb0d8cc4fe6&scene=0&xtrack=1#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74282bcfe2e1d6d1ec4546eb18e35028","relate_stocks":{"BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc 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SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5MjA4MjA4MA==&mid=2655158130&idx=4&sn=9e4cf373b58b8951f50124f4fe623369&chksm=bc9bb193b60a07a4f92a68dd23b0228623f9327697cd111cea32efe8171100479fb0d8cc4fe6&scene=0&xtrack=1#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2433291622","content_text":"5月6日,市场调研机构TechInsights发布最新数据。2024年一季度,中国智能手机出货量为6330万台,同比增长1%。结束了连续11个季度的下滑。在头部厂商排名中,苹果以13.7%的市场份额跌出了前五名,加入“others”(其他)行列。同期,华为出货量同比大幅增长118.8%,位居市占率第三。苹果已经不再位于前五排名之中。数据显示,统计期内,中国本土四大厂商市场份额不相上下:OPPO/一加,凭借17.1%的市场份额,领跑中国智能手机市场;荣耀、华为和vivo,分列二至四名,其市场份额分别为16.7%、16.6%和16.1%。此外,小米以15.0%的市场份额位居第五。图源TechInsights“那里(中国)的一些消费者,不再将苹果的旗舰产品视为技术最先进的产品。”在5月3日的一篇报道中,美国媒体《华尔街日报》在评论中写道。在一些媒体看来,苹果正在失去在华市场的顶级吸引力。据苹果此前公开的业绩,苹果今年第一季度的全球销售额,同比去年下降了4.3%。一个重要原因是苹果在自己的战略重镇——大中华区受挫。在这一市场,苹果当季销售额为164亿美元,下降了8%。有观点认为,iPhone等产品,在引入人工智能等方面表现“落后”。文章表示,华为、vivo、小米和荣耀等品牌,纷纷为其产品提供内置的AI功能——据研究公司Canalys消息,韩国三星也进入了“人工智能手机”市场——但是,iPhone至今没有做出什么动作。评论认为,硬件和性能缺乏重大进步是中国消费者不购买新iPhone的重要理由。一些用户,延长了旧iPhone的使用寿命,不再购买苹果新产品。与此同时,尽管受到美国的制裁,但华为等品牌仍推出了功能先进的手机,一些用户转而使用国产手机。报道截图消费者仍在用脚投票。例如文章援引消费者说法称,华为在相机、电池续航、电话信号等方面,有优于苹果的表现。因为美国对华为的打压,华为手机被阻止使用最新的谷歌Android组件。这导致在海外出行时,华为手机无法访问谷歌地图,这曾让一些用户被迫考虑“改用iPhone”,但事实上,一些应用程序可以解决这一问题。“我更没有理由改用iPhone。”有消费者在接受采访时如是说。激烈的市场竞争,正让苹果感到乏力。文章援引报告称,在中国高端智能手机市场,本土品牌的竞争日益激烈,这导致iPhone 15系列整体表现不佳。尽管iPhone 15 Pro Max继续占据最高端细分市场的主导地位。但遭受美国制裁的华为,凭借自主研发的芯片卷土重来。今年4月,华为推出了新型号Pura 70系列,配备了比以前更强大的芯片。从市场表现来看,制裁不能阻止中国企业取得市场进展。据市场研究机构TechInsights数据,2024年第一季度,中国智能手机出货量为6330万台。其中,华为的出货量为1050万台。此外,OPPO一季度的出货量为1070万台,荣耀的出货量为1060万台。向来回避折扣的苹果,试图挽回颓势。苹果在今年1月曾推出折扣活动,为用户提供50元到800元不等的优惠。但从结果来看,这也未能阻击中国本土企业的强劲势头。报道认为,苹果最近推出的大多数手机型号,其售价均超过600美元(约合4330元人民币)。但相比之下,中国本土厂商拥有更广泛的产品线,更容易吸引消费者。由于口径、数据等方面的差异,不同机构的报告互有差异,但均展示出苹果手机的颓势。4月25日,国际数据公司(IDC)发布的最新手机季度跟踪报告显示,2024年第一季度,中国智能手机市场出货量约6926万台,同比增长6.5%。其中,荣耀首季度在中国市场份额17.1%,同比增幅达13.2%,位列第一,华为自去年8月底回归以后快速恢复,今年第一季度已经并列中国市场第一,同比增幅超过100%。OPPO与苹果则并列第三位。图源IDC据Canalys4月26日发布的最新报告,2024年第一季度,苹果在头五厂商中跌幅最大,以1000万台的出货量排名第五,同比下降25%。图源Canalys","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":298730860941496,"gmtCreate":1713961614767,"gmtModify":1713961616446,"author":{"id":"3463638207582835","authorId":"3463638207582835","name":"David 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a>恒大不恒大,法拉第未来无未来,大骗局终归要走向破灭的结局了!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a>恒大不恒大,法拉第未来无未来,大骗局终归要走向破灭的结局了!","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 恒大不恒大,法拉第未来无未来,大骗局终归要走向破灭的结局了!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/231187250602256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":696,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":190140450435096,"gmtCreate":1687446420826,"gmtModify":1687446421956,"author":{"id":"3463638207582835","authorId":"3463638207582835","name":"David king","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/381907ed436a61d3c77e6b10f0cbe764","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a>这货还没退市?为20登顶的勇士表示钦佩[强] [强] [强] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a>这货还没退市?为20登顶的勇士表示钦佩[强] [强] [强] ","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 这货还没退市?为20登顶的勇士表示钦佩[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190140450435096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":197818003,"gmtCreate":1621439145802,"gmtModify":1621439145802,"author":{"id":"3463638207582835","authorId":"3463638207582835","name":"David king","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/381907ed436a61d3c77e6b10f0cbe764","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>拼夕夕最拿手的绝活就是突然一个旱地拔葱[开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>拼夕夕最拿手的绝活就是突然一个旱地拔葱[开心] ","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$拼夕夕最拿手的绝活就是突然一个旱地拔葱[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197818003","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":377620173,"gmtCreate":1619524885692,"gmtModify":1619524885692,"author":{"id":"3463638207582835","authorId":"3463638207582835","name":"David 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src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210427183001375v173izj12xd9o15\"/><p><strong>特约 | 张景舒</strong></p><p>4月26日对泡沫股来说是好日子,GameStop等泡沫股卷土重来,市场一片欣欣向荣的景象,而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的一季报,也如期而至了。如果让笔者用一句话来总结这份财报:特斯拉还是继承了其一贯的传统:赔钱!公司一季度的业绩更多来自于特斯拉可自我调节的监管信用贡献,以及马斯克出手20%比特币的利润。如果剔除上述两部分费用,经笔者测算,其一季度税前亏损高达8600万美元,调整经营资本前的自有现金流同样为负,高达5.22亿美元。在笔者看来,特斯拉仍是美股市场投机热度最好的晴雨表,在没有盈利能力支撑下的8000亿美元市值,泡沫化程度严重,一旦被刺破,将轰然倒塌。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210427183002335v1737y5yw7if5uc\"/><p><strong>特斯拉一季报不及预期</strong></p><p><strong>所谓“超预期”或来自监管信用收入调节</strong></p><p>美东时间4月26日闭盘后,特斯拉对外披露其一季度业绩报告,并在向媒体发布的新闻稿中称,其售车毛利率达到了历史新高——26.5%。在笔者看来,特斯拉这么做,是希望给市场造成一种其具有规模经济效应的假象。很遗憾的是,皇帝身上,没有新装。</p><p>剔除监管信用(即Regulatory Credits,是其他油车因为生产电动车数量没有达到政府要求而不得不向已经达标的车企如特斯拉购置。过去几个季度特斯拉的盈利,主要是因为监管信用),特斯拉一季度的毛利率20.8%低于2020年三季度的22.5%,同时售车营收相较于2020年四季度环比下滑4.8%。(见附表)</p><p>附表 特斯拉过去五个季度实际售车毛利率(单位:亿美元)</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210427183003466v173426951m8dha\"/><p>在笔者看来,特斯拉的所有指标都是不及市场预期的,这也是其盘后下跌超过2%的原因所在。举例来说,市场对特斯拉总销量的预期是104.2亿美元,而且预期监管信用收入应环比下滑;实际上,监管信用收入不仅没有下滑,反而增加了1.17亿美元,而总销量却只有103.9亿美元。</p><p>由于监管信用的多少可以根据实际情况由公司进行调节,也就是可以把之后出售的监管信用拿到当期来改善通用会计准则下的<span>净利润</span>,因此有分析师在电话会议上有礼貌地向特斯拉高管问道:“恭喜贵公司监管信用收入环比增加,但您可以告诉我们一下这是如何发生的吗”时,特斯拉管理层选择了回避,说道:“我们跳到下一个问题吧”。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210427183009074v17393h9lg94ch3\"/><p><strong>特斯拉难摆脱线性制造业企业宿命</strong></p><p><strong>市销率高达17.7倍每股营收增速仅个位数增长</strong></p><p>笔者在此前给《红周刊》撰文中就曾提过,特斯拉是一个结构性无法盈利的公司。无论他卖多少车,造多少超级工厂Gigafactory,它仍然无法摆脱一个线性制造业企业的宿命。特斯拉之所以亏损不那么严重,在笔者看来,也与特斯拉的CEO马斯克夸大特斯拉在自动驾驶上的布局有关。在马斯克的介绍中,特斯拉制造的车具有完全自动驾驶功能(FSD/Full Self-Driving),但事实上特斯拉目前仅是将Level 2.5宣传成了全自动驾驶。例如,在美国德州休斯顿的车祸悲剧中,两位老人驾驶特斯拉,开启自动驾驶模式,坐在后座,后因车祸双双身故。</p><p>另外,在上一次电话会议上,公司管理层以及马斯克确认Model X和Model S虽然有生产上的问题,但只是暂时的,而且这两类车的制造和生产都在持续,Model S从今年2月份就可以继续开始投递。然而到今年一季度末,数据显示,Model X和Model S的销售从18966辆降低到2030辆,同比下降83%,而生产则直接从16097辆跌成了0。特斯拉的官网显示,Model X的最早递送将延迟到2021年10月,Model S最早递送将延迟到2021年8~9月。此外,公司原来管理层承诺投资者在2021年7月德国的Gigafactory就可以开始投入生产,而目前这个期限被拖到了2021年11月。</p><p>值得注意的是,特斯拉没有给出今年汽车销量的指引,只是再次确认说同比销量能增加50%,也就是450亿美元的营收(其实可能更少,因为Model X和Model S的售价更高,而这部分销量占比今年同比会下降),目前特斯拉股本10.8亿股,股价738美元/股,即7970亿美元市值,前瞻市销率17.7倍,而一般汽车制造商的市销率在0.5倍左右。市盈率,也一般不会超过10倍。</p><p>也许有的投资者会说,特斯拉估值高,是因为盈利增速高!但特斯拉剔除监管信用之后,其实并没有任何盈利,所以根本没法衡量盈利增速,而从每股营收增速来看:过去两年来,特斯拉的每股营收增速(完全稀释股本)仅为 6%!</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210427183019532v173clpfj1nbgea\"/><p><strong>马斯克出售比特币获利补充亏损窟窿</strong></p><p><strong>剔除非主营收益,特斯拉一季度税前亏损8600万</strong></p><p>特斯拉这个季度无疑是又赔钱了。除了监管信用之外,马斯克还通过出售所持有的20%的比特币获利1亿美元,以此填充亏损的窟窿。如果我们剔除监管信用收益和“炒币”一次性收益,那么特斯拉在今年一季度税前亏损8600万美元。</p><p>也许有的投资者会说,特斯拉今年一季度2.93亿美元的<span>自由现金流</span>总是实打实的吧?结果恰恰相反,特斯拉一季度的自由现金流也是负的。一季报数据显示,特斯拉环比应收账款基本增量很小,而应付账款和应计负债则环比增加8.15亿美元。因此,对自由现金流的标准算法,亦即调整经营资本前的自由现金流,为-5.22亿美元。</p><p>对笔者来说,特斯拉仍然是最好的市场投机热度晴雨表。没有盈利能力的特斯拉是一个8000亿美元的故事,这个人类资本史按照市值计算的最大泡沫,终有一天会如他的前辈们一样,轰然倒塌!</p><p><strong>(</strong>利益披露:作者及其所在基金通过期权或股权持有对特斯拉的空头仓位。文中观点仅代表作者个人,不代表《红周刊》立场,提及个股仅为举例分析,不做买卖建议。)</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210427183030890v173yz9jnijqd6w\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210427183036371v173d2l4fbvm4ir\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210427183037195v173jaw8ozysvmy\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210427183038088v173rrwjru5q3a4\"/><p>- 证券市场红周刊 原创 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class=\"title\">\n马斯克出售比特币获利补亏!剔除非主营收益,特斯拉一季度税前亏损8600万美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-27 18:26 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202104271830397e6c70b6&s=b><strong>证券市场红周刊</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特约 | 张景舒4月26日对泡沫股来说是好日子,GameStop等泡沫股卷土重来,市场一片欣欣向荣的景象,而特斯拉的一季报,也如期而至了。如果让笔者用一句话来总结这份财报:特斯拉还是继承了其一贯的传统:赔钱!公司一季度的业绩更多来自于特斯拉可自我调节的监管信用贡献,以及马斯克出手20%比特币的利润。如果剔除上述两部分费用,经笔者测算,其一季度税前亏损高达8600万美元,调整经营资本前的自有现金流...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202104271830397e6c70b6&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a392fa4664ebd1a30c34cf09f5d89905","relate_stocks":{"CAN":"嘉楠科技","EBON":"亿邦国际","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202104271830397e6c70b6&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2130432691","content_text":"特约 | 张景舒4月26日对泡沫股来说是好日子,GameStop等泡沫股卷土重来,市场一片欣欣向荣的景象,而特斯拉的一季报,也如期而至了。如果让笔者用一句话来总结这份财报:特斯拉还是继承了其一贯的传统:赔钱!公司一季度的业绩更多来自于特斯拉可自我调节的监管信用贡献,以及马斯克出手20%比特币的利润。如果剔除上述两部分费用,经笔者测算,其一季度税前亏损高达8600万美元,调整经营资本前的自有现金流同样为负,高达5.22亿美元。在笔者看来,特斯拉仍是美股市场投机热度最好的晴雨表,在没有盈利能力支撑下的8000亿美元市值,泡沫化程度严重,一旦被刺破,将轰然倒塌。特斯拉一季报不及预期所谓“超预期”或来自监管信用收入调节美东时间4月26日闭盘后,特斯拉对外披露其一季度业绩报告,并在向媒体发布的新闻稿中称,其售车毛利率达到了历史新高——26.5%。在笔者看来,特斯拉这么做,是希望给市场造成一种其具有规模经济效应的假象。很遗憾的是,皇帝身上,没有新装。剔除监管信用(即Regulatory Credits,是其他油车因为生产电动车数量没有达到政府要求而不得不向已经达标的车企如特斯拉购置。过去几个季度特斯拉的盈利,主要是因为监管信用),特斯拉一季度的毛利率20.8%低于2020年三季度的22.5%,同时售车营收相较于2020年四季度环比下滑4.8%。(见附表)附表 特斯拉过去五个季度实际售车毛利率(单位:亿美元)在笔者看来,特斯拉的所有指标都是不及市场预期的,这也是其盘后下跌超过2%的原因所在。举例来说,市场对特斯拉总销量的预期是104.2亿美元,而且预期监管信用收入应环比下滑;实际上,监管信用收入不仅没有下滑,反而增加了1.17亿美元,而总销量却只有103.9亿美元。由于监管信用的多少可以根据实际情况由公司进行调节,也就是可以把之后出售的监管信用拿到当期来改善通用会计准则下的净利润,因此有分析师在电话会议上有礼貌地向特斯拉高管问道:“恭喜贵公司监管信用收入环比增加,但您可以告诉我们一下这是如何发生的吗”时,特斯拉管理层选择了回避,说道:“我们跳到下一个问题吧”。特斯拉难摆脱线性制造业企业宿命市销率高达17.7倍每股营收增速仅个位数增长笔者在此前给《红周刊》撰文中就曾提过,特斯拉是一个结构性无法盈利的公司。无论他卖多少车,造多少超级工厂Gigafactory,它仍然无法摆脱一个线性制造业企业的宿命。特斯拉之所以亏损不那么严重,在笔者看来,也与特斯拉的CEO马斯克夸大特斯拉在自动驾驶上的布局有关。在马斯克的介绍中,特斯拉制造的车具有完全自动驾驶功能(FSD/Full Self-Driving),但事实上特斯拉目前仅是将Level 2.5宣传成了全自动驾驶。例如,在美国德州休斯顿的车祸悲剧中,两位老人驾驶特斯拉,开启自动驾驶模式,坐在后座,后因车祸双双身故。另外,在上一次电话会议上,公司管理层以及马斯克确认Model X和Model S虽然有生产上的问题,但只是暂时的,而且这两类车的制造和生产都在持续,Model S从今年2月份就可以继续开始投递。然而到今年一季度末,数据显示,Model X和Model S的销售从18966辆降低到2030辆,同比下降83%,而生产则直接从16097辆跌成了0。特斯拉的官网显示,Model X的最早递送将延迟到2021年10月,Model S最早递送将延迟到2021年8~9月。此外,公司原来管理层承诺投资者在2021年7月德国的Gigafactory就可以开始投入生产,而目前这个期限被拖到了2021年11月。值得注意的是,特斯拉没有给出今年汽车销量的指引,只是再次确认说同比销量能增加50%,也就是450亿美元的营收(其实可能更少,因为Model X和Model S的售价更高,而这部分销量占比今年同比会下降),目前特斯拉股本10.8亿股,股价738美元/股,即7970亿美元市值,前瞻市销率17.7倍,而一般汽车制造商的市销率在0.5倍左右。市盈率,也一般不会超过10倍。也许有的投资者会说,特斯拉估值高,是因为盈利增速高!但特斯拉剔除监管信用之后,其实并没有任何盈利,所以根本没法衡量盈利增速,而从每股营收增速来看:过去两年来,特斯拉的每股营收增速(完全稀释股本)仅为 6%!马斯克出售比特币获利补充亏损窟窿剔除非主营收益,特斯拉一季度税前亏损8600万特斯拉这个季度无疑是又赔钱了。除了监管信用之外,马斯克还通过出售所持有的20%的比特币获利1亿美元,以此填充亏损的窟窿。如果我们剔除监管信用收益和“炒币”一次性收益,那么特斯拉在今年一季度税前亏损8600万美元。也许有的投资者会说,特斯拉今年一季度2.93亿美元的自由现金流总是实打实的吧?结果恰恰相反,特斯拉一季度的自由现金流也是负的。一季报数据显示,特斯拉环比应收账款基本增量很小,而应付账款和应计负债则环比增加8.15亿美元。因此,对自由现金流的标准算法,亦即调整经营资本前的自由现金流,为-5.22亿美元。对笔者来说,特斯拉仍然是最好的市场投机热度晴雨表。没有盈利能力的特斯拉是一个8000亿美元的故事,这个人类资本史按照市值计算的最大泡沫,终有一天会如他的前辈们一样,轰然倒塌!(利益披露:作者及其所在基金通过期权或股权持有对特斯拉的空头仓位。文中观点仅代表作者个人,不代表《红周刊》立场,提及个股仅为举例分析,不做买卖建议。)- 证券市场红周刊 原创 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19:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"孙正义:警惕雷曼式危机","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167810458","media":"见闻IPO","summary":"导读:孙正义说,今后两到三个月可能发生任何灾难我们要为最坏情形未雨绸缪;可能只要一家银行就能酿成雷曼兄弟式危机。有800亿美元现金在手,软银股价若下跌,他就可以更积极地回购股票,也可以继续投资企业。\n","content":"<blockquote>\n 导读:孙正义说,今后两到三个月可能发生任何灾难我们要为最坏情形未雨绸缪;可能只要一家银行就能酿成雷曼兄弟式危机。有800亿美元现金在手,软银股价若下跌,他就可以更积极地回购股票,也可以继续投资企业。\n</blockquote>\n<p>在本周二的线上活动中,软银创始人兼CEO孙正义亮出了软银的持现“家底”,为软银的科技业投资策略正名。</p>\n<p>孙正义称,为了让软银获得流动性应对全球范围的紧急状况,他决定软银出手资产。“今后两到三个月,可能发生任何灾难。所以我们要为最坏情形未雨绸缪。”据他所说,他最初的目标是今年出售400亿美元资产,但最终抛售了800亿美元。</p>\n<p>孙正义警告,可能出现像雷曼兄弟2008年倒闭那样的事件,引起大范围崩盘。他说,“在这种情况下任何事都可能发生。当然,疫苗就要来了,可谁知道今后两三个月会怎样?”</p>\n<p>孙正义称,可能有家大公司崩盘,制造全球“多米诺效应”的金融风暴。可能“只要一家银行”就能酿成“雷曼那样的危机”。“短期来看,我是悲观的。”</p>\n<p>这和孙正义此前的立场一致。今年8月的电话会议上,孙正义表示,新冠疫情改变了一切,软银正为经济长期低迷及可能的机会做准备,“现金是我们的防御手段”。</p>\n<p><b>01、拒绝置评私有化</b></p>\n<p>孙正义认为,有800亿美元现金在手,一旦软银股价下跌,他就可以更积极地回购更多的股票,也可以继续投资私营企业和公开上市公司。不过孙正义并未置评他是否会让软银私有化,从公开市场退市。</p>\n<p>媒体称,在软银内部,至少有五年都在讨论是否通过买断股票让公司私有化。</p>\n<p>今年3月,软银公布,将在此后四个季度出售至多价值4.5万亿日元(约合410亿美元)的资产,以此资助2.5万亿日元的创纪录规模股票回购计划,并偿还债务和回购债券。外界对软银私有化的猜测继续升温。</p>\n<p>8月软银公布,7月1日至8月3日间已斥资3980亿日元回购了6320万股,3月以来用于股票回购的总开支由此达到1万亿日元(约合95亿美元),10月软银披露,在9月约半个月的时间内,又投入401亿日元(约合3.8亿美元)回购617万股。</p>\n<p><b>02、坚持AI梦</b></p>\n<p>孙正义本周二为软银最近的公开上市股票投资辩护。他反问:“假如我觉得公开一些上市公司会在AI革命期间成为成功的企业,谁又能说我不应该投资它们?”</p>\n<p>孙正义重申,相信全球数字化转型和人工智能问世将给他的投资带来帮助。</p>\n<p>在孙正义表态前,软银最近几个月已经因为大举押注科技股的投资引发争议。</p>\n<p>今年9月,媒体爆出软银豪赌科技股的消息,称软银买入了与名义价值500亿美元股票挂钩的科技股期权,一度带来短期浮盈约40亿美元。这些期权被媒体称为“纳斯达克鲸”,因为它是二季度科技股高涨的幕后推手。由于投资者担心软银的衍生品交易可能带来巨大损失,软银的市值此后蒸发约90亿美元。</p>\n<p>10月媒体又传出消息称,虽然曾考虑削减持仓,但软银旗下公共股票交易部门已经将股票持仓规模扩大到200多亿美元。这可能已远超目标水平,因为今年8月爆出的软银目标是逾100亿美元。</p>\n<p>上周一软银公布财报显示,在截至9月的第二财季、即今年第三季度,软银 “在上市股票和其他工具上的投资”造成了1317亿日元(约合13亿美元)的亏损。</p>\n<p>孙正义在财报公布后的电话会议上称,“当你说到衍生品时,这听起来风险很大,但它只占我们所持资产总价值的1%。(如果这些投资失败),损失也只占软银总股本的1%-2%,所以只占整体情况的一小部分。”</p>\n<p>上周媒体消息还称,孙正义本人对软银交易股票和衍生品的部门持股三分之一。在上周一的电话会上,多名分析师和基金经理质疑孙正义,认为他的持股让人担心公司的管理。孙否认有利益冲突,称那是他通过投资专业知识取得的酬劳,别的基金经理也收费。</p>\n<p>值得一提的是,三季度软银的大型科技投资工具愿景基金(Vision Fund)斩获了创纪录的7844亿日元利润。媒体指出,这都要归功于该基金去年11月曾以13.5亿美元投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>找房。自今年8月上市到9月30日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>找房的股价飙升,软银的持股回报率高达375%。</p>\n<p><b>03、称赞WeWork创始人</b></p>\n<p>孙正义本周二还提到了共享办公空间独角兽WeWork的创始人Adam Neumann,称他是个聪明人,是个积极主动的人。“他是个出色的领导者,但他犯了些错。”</p>\n<p>WeWork近年来一直是软银备受诟病的一项科技业投资。去年9月末,WeWork撤回IPO申请,此后被爆出面临严重的现金流压力,并失去了大客户<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>。</p>\n<p>去年10月,WeWork的创始人Adam Neumann辞去CEO职务。当月WeWork董事长透露,软银对该司的投资规模达到185亿美元。当月媒体消息称,为了换取Neumann离开WeWork的董事会并交出投票权,支持软银接手WeWork,软银提出向Neumann支付2亿美元。</p>\n<p>受新冠肺炎疫情影响,WeWork处境雪上加霜。今年4月软银宣布撤回30亿美元收购要约。当月末软银公布,在截至今年3月一财年,预计在WeWork上的投资损失高达约7000亿日元,约合66亿美元。</p>\n<p>5月孙正义称,软银对WeWork的投资是“愚蠢的”。当时媒体根据现金流贴现法估算,截至3月末,软银对WeWork的估值为29亿美元。而去年上市前WeWork的估值曾高达470亿美元。</p>\n<p>8月媒体称,软银同意,以优先担保债券的形式,向WeWork提供11亿美元,以此帮助WeWork解决二季度大量现金流出的问题。二季度WeWork烧钱6.71亿美元,环比增长近40%,当季销售额环比下滑20%。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>孙正义:警惕雷曼式危机</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n孙正义:警惕雷曼式危机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1083533104\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/0717bf7b1e5642e9827aeffbf11eb9ad);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">见闻IPO </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-11-18 19:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n 导读:孙正义说,今后两到三个月可能发生任何灾难我们要为最坏情形未雨绸缪;可能只要一家银行就能酿成雷曼兄弟式危机。有800亿美元现金在手,软银股价若下跌,他就可以更积极地回购股票,也可以继续投资企业。\n</blockquote>\n<p>在本周二的线上活动中,软银创始人兼CEO孙正义亮出了软银的持现“家底”,为软银的科技业投资策略正名。</p>\n<p>孙正义称,为了让软银获得流动性应对全球范围的紧急状况,他决定软银出手资产。“今后两到三个月,可能发生任何灾难。所以我们要为最坏情形未雨绸缪。”据他所说,他最初的目标是今年出售400亿美元资产,但最终抛售了800亿美元。</p>\n<p>孙正义警告,可能出现像雷曼兄弟2008年倒闭那样的事件,引起大范围崩盘。他说,“在这种情况下任何事都可能发生。当然,疫苗就要来了,可谁知道今后两三个月会怎样?”</p>\n<p>孙正义称,可能有家大公司崩盘,制造全球“多米诺效应”的金融风暴。可能“只要一家银行”就能酿成“雷曼那样的危机”。“短期来看,我是悲观的。”</p>\n<p>这和孙正义此前的立场一致。今年8月的电话会议上,孙正义表示,新冠疫情改变了一切,软银正为经济长期低迷及可能的机会做准备,“现金是我们的防御手段”。</p>\n<p><b>01、拒绝置评私有化</b></p>\n<p>孙正义认为,有800亿美元现金在手,一旦软银股价下跌,他就可以更积极地回购更多的股票,也可以继续投资私营企业和公开上市公司。不过孙正义并未置评他是否会让软银私有化,从公开市场退市。</p>\n<p>媒体称,在软银内部,至少有五年都在讨论是否通过买断股票让公司私有化。</p>\n<p>今年3月,软银公布,将在此后四个季度出售至多价值4.5万亿日元(约合410亿美元)的资产,以此资助2.5万亿日元的创纪录规模股票回购计划,并偿还债务和回购债券。外界对软银私有化的猜测继续升温。</p>\n<p>8月软银公布,7月1日至8月3日间已斥资3980亿日元回购了6320万股,3月以来用于股票回购的总开支由此达到1万亿日元(约合95亿美元),10月软银披露,在9月约半个月的时间内,又投入401亿日元(约合3.8亿美元)回购617万股。</p>\n<p><b>02、坚持AI梦</b></p>\n<p>孙正义本周二为软银最近的公开上市股票投资辩护。他反问:“假如我觉得公开一些上市公司会在AI革命期间成为成功的企业,谁又能说我不应该投资它们?”</p>\n<p>孙正义重申,相信全球数字化转型和人工智能问世将给他的投资带来帮助。</p>\n<p>在孙正义表态前,软银最近几个月已经因为大举押注科技股的投资引发争议。</p>\n<p>今年9月,媒体爆出软银豪赌科技股的消息,称软银买入了与名义价值500亿美元股票挂钩的科技股期权,一度带来短期浮盈约40亿美元。这些期权被媒体称为“纳斯达克鲸”,因为它是二季度科技股高涨的幕后推手。由于投资者担心软银的衍生品交易可能带来巨大损失,软银的市值此后蒸发约90亿美元。</p>\n<p>10月媒体又传出消息称,虽然曾考虑削减持仓,但软银旗下公共股票交易部门已经将股票持仓规模扩大到200多亿美元。这可能已远超目标水平,因为今年8月爆出的软银目标是逾100亿美元。</p>\n<p>上周一软银公布财报显示,在截至9月的第二财季、即今年第三季度,软银 “在上市股票和其他工具上的投资”造成了1317亿日元(约合13亿美元)的亏损。</p>\n<p>孙正义在财报公布后的电话会议上称,“当你说到衍生品时,这听起来风险很大,但它只占我们所持资产总价值的1%。(如果这些投资失败),损失也只占软银总股本的1%-2%,所以只占整体情况的一小部分。”</p>\n<p>上周媒体消息还称,孙正义本人对软银交易股票和衍生品的部门持股三分之一。在上周一的电话会上,多名分析师和基金经理质疑孙正义,认为他的持股让人担心公司的管理。孙否认有利益冲突,称那是他通过投资专业知识取得的酬劳,别的基金经理也收费。</p>\n<p>值得一提的是,三季度软银的大型科技投资工具愿景基金(Vision Fund)斩获了创纪录的7844亿日元利润。媒体指出,这都要归功于该基金去年11月曾以13.5亿美元投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>找房。自今年8月上市到9月30日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>找房的股价飙升,软银的持股回报率高达375%。</p>\n<p><b>03、称赞WeWork创始人</b></p>\n<p>孙正义本周二还提到了共享办公空间独角兽WeWork的创始人Adam Neumann,称他是个聪明人,是个积极主动的人。“他是个出色的领导者,但他犯了些错。”</p>\n<p>WeWork近年来一直是软银备受诟病的一项科技业投资。去年9月末,WeWork撤回IPO申请,此后被爆出面临严重的现金流压力,并失去了大客户<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>。</p>\n<p>去年10月,WeWork的创始人Adam Neumann辞去CEO职务。当月WeWork董事长透露,软银对该司的投资规模达到185亿美元。当月媒体消息称,为了换取Neumann离开WeWork的董事会并交出投票权,支持软银接手WeWork,软银提出向Neumann支付2亿美元。</p>\n<p>受新冠肺炎疫情影响,WeWork处境雪上加霜。今年4月软银宣布撤回30亿美元收购要约。当月末软银公布,在截至今年3月一财年,预计在WeWork上的投资损失高达约7000亿日元,约合66亿美元。</p>\n<p>5月孙正义称,软银对WeWork的投资是“愚蠢的”。当时媒体根据现金流贴现法估算,截至3月末,软银对WeWork的估值为29亿美元。而去年上市前WeWork的估值曾高达470亿美元。</p>\n<p>8月媒体称,软银同意,以优先担保债券的形式,向WeWork提供11亿美元,以此帮助WeWork解决二季度大量现金流出的问题。二季度WeWork烧钱6.71亿美元,环比增长近40%,当季销售额环比下滑20%。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acb77b88f0e1500dd735d82182c9d65c","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167810458","content_text":"导读:孙正义说,今后两到三个月可能发生任何灾难我们要为最坏情形未雨绸缪;可能只要一家银行就能酿成雷曼兄弟式危机。有800亿美元现金在手,软银股价若下跌,他就可以更积极地回购股票,也可以继续投资企业。\n\n在本周二的线上活动中,软银创始人兼CEO孙正义亮出了软银的持现“家底”,为软银的科技业投资策略正名。\n孙正义称,为了让软银获得流动性应对全球范围的紧急状况,他决定软银出手资产。“今后两到三个月,可能发生任何灾难。所以我们要为最坏情形未雨绸缪。”据他所说,他最初的目标是今年出售400亿美元资产,但最终抛售了800亿美元。\n孙正义警告,可能出现像雷曼兄弟2008年倒闭那样的事件,引起大范围崩盘。他说,“在这种情况下任何事都可能发生。当然,疫苗就要来了,可谁知道今后两三个月会怎样?”\n孙正义称,可能有家大公司崩盘,制造全球“多米诺效应”的金融风暴。可能“只要一家银行”就能酿成“雷曼那样的危机”。“短期来看,我是悲观的。”\n这和孙正义此前的立场一致。今年8月的电话会议上,孙正义表示,新冠疫情改变了一切,软银正为经济长期低迷及可能的机会做准备,“现金是我们的防御手段”。\n01、拒绝置评私有化\n孙正义认为,有800亿美元现金在手,一旦软银股价下跌,他就可以更积极地回购更多的股票,也可以继续投资私营企业和公开上市公司。不过孙正义并未置评他是否会让软银私有化,从公开市场退市。\n媒体称,在软银内部,至少有五年都在讨论是否通过买断股票让公司私有化。\n今年3月,软银公布,将在此后四个季度出售至多价值4.5万亿日元(约合410亿美元)的资产,以此资助2.5万亿日元的创纪录规模股票回购计划,并偿还债务和回购债券。外界对软银私有化的猜测继续升温。\n8月软银公布,7月1日至8月3日间已斥资3980亿日元回购了6320万股,3月以来用于股票回购的总开支由此达到1万亿日元(约合95亿美元),10月软银披露,在9月约半个月的时间内,又投入401亿日元(约合3.8亿美元)回购617万股。\n02、坚持AI梦\n孙正义本周二为软银最近的公开上市股票投资辩护。他反问:“假如我觉得公开一些上市公司会在AI革命期间成为成功的企业,谁又能说我不应该投资它们?”\n孙正义重申,相信全球数字化转型和人工智能问世将给他的投资带来帮助。\n在孙正义表态前,软银最近几个月已经因为大举押注科技股的投资引发争议。\n今年9月,媒体爆出软银豪赌科技股的消息,称软银买入了与名义价值500亿美元股票挂钩的科技股期权,一度带来短期浮盈约40亿美元。这些期权被媒体称为“纳斯达克鲸”,因为它是二季度科技股高涨的幕后推手。由于投资者担心软银的衍生品交易可能带来巨大损失,软银的市值此后蒸发约90亿美元。\n10月媒体又传出消息称,虽然曾考虑削减持仓,但软银旗下公共股票交易部门已经将股票持仓规模扩大到200多亿美元。这可能已远超目标水平,因为今年8月爆出的软银目标是逾100亿美元。\n上周一软银公布财报显示,在截至9月的第二财季、即今年第三季度,软银 “在上市股票和其他工具上的投资”造成了1317亿日元(约合13亿美元)的亏损。\n孙正义在财报公布后的电话会议上称,“当你说到衍生品时,这听起来风险很大,但它只占我们所持资产总价值的1%。(如果这些投资失败),损失也只占软银总股本的1%-2%,所以只占整体情况的一小部分。”\n上周媒体消息还称,孙正义本人对软银交易股票和衍生品的部门持股三分之一。在上周一的电话会上,多名分析师和基金经理质疑孙正义,认为他的持股让人担心公司的管理。孙否认有利益冲突,称那是他通过投资专业知识取得的酬劳,别的基金经理也收费。\n值得一提的是,三季度软银的大型科技投资工具愿景基金(Vision Fund)斩获了创纪录的7844亿日元利润。媒体指出,这都要归功于该基金去年11月曾以13.5亿美元投资贝壳找房。自今年8月上市到9月30日,贝壳找房的股价飙升,软银的持股回报率高达375%。\n03、称赞WeWork创始人\n孙正义本周二还提到了共享办公空间独角兽WeWork的创始人Adam Neumann,称他是个聪明人,是个积极主动的人。“他是个出色的领导者,但他犯了些错。”\nWeWork近年来一直是软银备受诟病的一项科技业投资。去年9月末,WeWork撤回IPO申请,此后被爆出面临严重的现金流压力,并失去了大客户谷歌。\n去年10月,WeWork的创始人Adam Neumann辞去CEO职务。当月WeWork董事长透露,软银对该司的投资规模达到185亿美元。当月媒体消息称,为了换取Neumann离开WeWork的董事会并交出投票权,支持软银接手WeWork,软银提出向Neumann支付2亿美元。\n受新冠肺炎疫情影响,WeWork处境雪上加霜。今年4月软银宣布撤回30亿美元收购要约。当月末软银公布,在截至今年3月一财年,预计在WeWork上的投资损失高达约7000亿日元,约合66亿美元。\n5月孙正义称,软银对WeWork的投资是“愚蠢的”。当时媒体根据现金流贴现法估算,截至3月末,软银对WeWork的估值为29亿美元。而去年上市前WeWork的估值曾高达470亿美元。\n8月媒体称,软银同意,以优先担保债券的形式,向WeWork提供11亿美元,以此帮助WeWork解决二季度大量现金流出的问题。二季度WeWork烧钱6.71亿美元,环比增长近40%,当季销售额环比下滑20%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335819,"gmtCreate":1542723482394,"gmtModify":1704781451365,"author":{"id":"3463638207582835","authorId":"3463638207582835","name":"David king","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/381907ed436a61d3c77e6b10f0cbe764","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Facebook(FB)$ 从218跌到126,6折大甩卖!不要错过","listText":"$Facebook(FB)$ 从218跌到126,6折大甩卖!不要错过","text":"$Facebook(FB)$ 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