大船晴空的个人主页 - 老虎社区

大船晴空

大船晴空

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IP属地：湖北

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2017-12-13

$Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE)$ 51.75，还有比我高的么？

2017-12-18

$好未来(TAL)$什么情况？碰到天花板了？

2018-02-26

$好未来(TAL)$有谁知道好未来盘前这一跌是怎么回事？

2021-05-10

扯淡，首先我没有美团股票，对王兴也无好感，但就这个骑手待遇的事情，只要不违法，相关部门完全不应该干预，应该交给市场去处理，所有骑手选择送外卖，是在他能选择的职业里最好的选择了，把美团弄死，几百万骑手国家给养活吗？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2019-09-25

$蔚来(NIO)$ 这车除了续航里程有人吐槽外，其他好像都还好，不相信投资人不拼死相救，买入3成仓位赌一把。

2017-12-14

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$大家都慌了么？

2019-01-28

$英伟达(NVDA)$有抄底的吗？感觉现在抄底风险不大。

2018-06-21

问问大家现在在老虎里都是几成的仓位啊？

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 如题，我三成。

问问大家现在在老虎里都是几成的仓位啊？

2018-06-20

盘前拉这一下是怎么回事？

$Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE)$盘前拉这一下是怎么回事？

盘前拉这一下是怎么回事？

2020-12-10

$小米集团-W(01810)$请问大家炒股都用杠杆了吗？多少的杠杆？我现在是1.6，感觉太高了

2018-07-09

$Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE)$这票现在这么冷清了

2021-03-02

$Morphic Holding, Inc.(MORF)$看到三天后

2021-01-11

$小米集团-W(01810)$有没有人重仓小米，但希望股价跌下去的？

2020-11-21

$小米集团-W(01810)$$亚马逊(AMZN)$$苹果(AAPL)$刚才翻出来2017.6.24的聊天记录，统计了一下，历经3.5年，上涨幅最小的Facebook年化收益率17%，涨幅最大的亚马逊，3.5年年化收益率25%，这个收益率，大家有耐心守住吗？

2018-06-05

网易的底在哪里？

$网易(NTES)$任何时候都有人说到底了，同时有人说离底还远，何去何从？

网易的底在哪里？

2021-06-30

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$这么多人都预测要起飞的时候，感觉悬了，难不成让庄家带散户赚钱？

2021-06-20

$美团-W(03690)$$腾讯控股(00700)$$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$今天中考，突然在考生的复习资料上看到这个。

2021-01-25

上面的数据从哪里来的，我查了一下，2020股民平均盈利10万

是时候警惕A股第二波反噬了？

2018-07-26

$Facebook(FB)$有抄底的吗？

2018-05-15

英伟达这一跌是怎么回事，哪位大神知道？

$英伟达(NVDA)$如题

英伟达这一跌是怎么回事，哪位大神知道？

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因为汽车市场正处于从燃油车到新能源车过渡的变革期，科技革命和产业变革愈演愈烈，汽车产业生态和竞争格局面临重构，产品形态和用户体验正在深度变革。 在这种情况下，新能源品牌呈现爆发式增长，各种车型也如雨后春笋一般层出不穷。 据不完全统计，国内在售的新能源汽车品牌已经超过了70多个。而这70多个品牌，目前已经推出了200多款新能源汽车。其中包括造车新势力、传统厂商孵化出的新能源品牌，比如大众ID系列、广汽埃安、上汽智己、长安阿维塔、长安深蓝、长城沙龙等。 越来越多的玩家涌进了新能源车的赛道，车市开始复刻燃油车的“乱战时代”。 燃油车时代存在着这样的鄙视链：一线豪华品牌→二线豪华→一线合资品牌→二线合资→自主品牌。 如果我们再扩展一下，会发现汽车圈的鄙视链无处不在，比如自吸发动机→涡轮增压，六缸→四缸，四缸→三缸，非承载→承载式的、机械四驱→电子四驱的、全时四驱→适时四驱的、带全三把锁的→只有后差锁的、硬派的→城市的。 从品牌影响力来看，鄙视链的线路则为德系→日系→美系→韩系→法系→自主品牌，在自主品牌的圈子里，大家都是互相不服气。 新能源汽车也存在鄙视链 如今，鄙视链也传递到新能源汽车市场，从技术层面来看，纯电→插混车型→增程式→燃油车。 在纯电动车来说，它们认为所有的新能源技术都是过渡技术，最终都是要走向纯电动的，一步到位直接上纯电最直接有效，所以纯电一直认为自己站在技术的最顶端。 混动技术分为多种路线，有串联式、并联式，还有串联/并联混合式。而增程式属于混动技术中最简单的串联式，可油可电，但油只能用来发电，再通过电机来驱动车辆，由于技术实现路径最为简单，能效比低，不省油，所以增程式在混动技术里面，属于被鄙视的。 而增程式又鄙视燃油车。“大嘴”余承东就表示，“要赶紧淘汰纯燃油车，增程式是当前最好的解决方案，还说增程","listText":"最好的时代也是最坏的时代，这或许就是汽车市场的一个注脚。 因为汽车市场正处于从燃油车到新能源车过渡的变革期，科技革命和产业变革愈演愈烈，汽车产业生态和竞争格局面临重构，产品形态和用户体验正在深度变革。 在这种情况下，新能源品牌呈现爆发式增长，各种车型也如雨后春笋一般层出不穷。 据不完全统计，国内在售的新能源汽车品牌已经超过了70多个。而这70多个品牌，目前已经推出了200多款新能源汽车。其中包括造车新势力、传统厂商孵化出的新能源品牌，比如大众ID系列、广汽埃安、上汽智己、长安阿维塔、长安深蓝、长城沙龙等。 越来越多的玩家涌进了新能源车的赛道，车市开始复刻燃油车的“乱战时代”。 燃油车时代存在着这样的鄙视链：一线豪华品牌→二线豪华→一线合资品牌→二线合资→自主品牌。 如果我们再扩展一下，会发现汽车圈的鄙视链无处不在，比如自吸发动机→涡轮增压，六缸→四缸，四缸→三缸，非承载→承载式的、机械四驱→电子四驱的、全时四驱→适时四驱的、带全三把锁的→只有后差锁的、硬派的→城市的。 从品牌影响力来看，鄙视链的线路则为德系→日系→美系→韩系→法系→自主品牌，在自主品牌的圈子里，大家都是互相不服气。 新能源汽车也存在鄙视链 如今，鄙视链也传递到新能源汽车市场，从技术层面来看，纯电→插混车型→增程式→燃油车。 在纯电动车来说，它们认为所有的新能源技术都是过渡技术，最终都是要走向纯电动的，一步到位直接上纯电最直接有效，所以纯电一直认为自己站在技术的最顶端。 混动技术分为多种路线，有串联式、并联式，还有串联/并联混合式。而增程式属于混动技术中最简单的串联式，可油可电，但油只能用来发电，再通过电机来驱动车辆，由于技术实现路径最为简单，能效比低，不省油，所以增程式在混动技术里面，属于被鄙视的。 而增程式又鄙视燃油车。“大嘴”余承东就表示，“要赶紧淘汰纯燃油车，增程式是当前最好的解决方案，还说增程","text":"最好的时代也是最坏的时代，这或许就是汽车市场的一个注脚。 因为汽车市场正处于从燃油车到新能源车过渡的变革期，科技革命和产业变革愈演愈烈，汽车产业生态和竞争格局面临重构，产品形态和用户体验正在深度变革。 在这种情况下，新能源品牌呈现爆发式增长，各种车型也如雨后春笋一般层出不穷。 据不完全统计，国内在售的新能源汽车品牌已经超过了70多个。而这70多个品牌，目前已经推出了200多款新能源汽车。其中包括造车新势力、传统厂商孵化出的新能源品牌，比如大众ID系列、广汽埃安、上汽智己、长安阿维塔、长安深蓝、长城沙龙等。 越来越多的玩家涌进了新能源车的赛道，车市开始复刻燃油车的“乱战时代”。 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3461294587157154\">@大船晴空</a>:扯淡，首先我没有美团股票，对王兴也无好感，但就这个骑手待遇的事情，只要不违法，相关部门完全不应该干预，应该交给市场去处理，所有骑手选择送外卖，是在他能选择的职业里最好的选择了，把美团弄死，几百万骑手国家给养活吗？","text":"说好的尊重市场，企业付薪水不是恩赐，打工人赚钱也不需要感谢公司，情绪化的东西都是小儿科，难不成计划经济要复辟，市场监管和市场干预是两回事。//@大船晴空:扯淡，首先我没有美团股票，对王兴也无好感，但就这个骑手待遇的事情，只要不违法，相关部门完全不应该干预，应该交给市场去处理，所有骑手选择送外卖，是在他能选择的职业里最好的选择了，把美团弄死，几百万骑手国家给养活吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190546746","repostId":"2134968122","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464751161527210","authorId":"3464751161527210","name":"难懂你","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90538d2cfb54f53e6f286952aaa441ac","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"现在的中国民营企业为什么敢这么嚣张？就是每每要提高他们的底线的时候，这样的声音就要出来一波，欧盟，美国对那几个大厂时不时的收割怎么不说呢？？？？","text":"现在的中国民营企业为什么敢这么嚣张？就是每每要提高他们的底线的时候，这样的声音就要出来一波，欧盟，美国对那几个大厂时不时的收割怎么不说呢？？？？","html":"现在的中国民营企业为什么敢这么嚣张？就是每每要提高他们的底线的时候，这样的声音就要出来一波，欧盟，美国对那几个大厂时不时的收割怎么不说呢？？？？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":190649915,"gmtCreate":1620618740537,"gmtModify":1620638253213,"author":{"id":"3461294587157154","authorId":"3461294587157154","name":"大船晴空","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ca12860ccf6451aef738e79727597","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"扯淡，首先我没有美团股票，对王兴也无好感，但就这个骑手待遇的事情，只要不违法，相关部门完全不应该干预，应该交给市场去处理，所有骑手选择送外卖，是在他能选择的职业里最好的选择了，把美团弄死，几百万骑手国家给养活吗？","listText":"扯淡，首先我没有美团股票，对王兴也无好感，但就这个骑手待遇的事情，只要不违法，相关部门完全不应该干预，应该交给市场去处理，所有骑手选择送外卖，是在他能选择的职业里最好的选择了，把美团弄死，几百万骑手国家给养活吗？","text":"扯淡，首先我没有美团股票，对王兴也无好感，但就这个骑手待遇的事情，只要不违法，相关部门完全不应该干预，应该交给市场去处理，所有骑手选择送外卖，是在他能选择的职业里最好的选择了，把美团弄死，几百万骑手国家给养活吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190649915","repostId":"2134968122","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2134968122","pubTimestamp":1620606974,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2134968122?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-10 08:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美团代表对话巡视组：470万骑手均为外包公司员工，与我们无直接劳动关系","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2134968122","media":"财经自媒体","summary":"美团代表对话巡视组：470万骑手均为外包公司员工，与我们无直接劳动关系来源：豆仔说事最近美团被巡视组约谈，才发现顶着“骑士王者”光环的美团玩的竟是空手套白狼的游戏，最核心的竞争力：470万骑手，居然全是外包，合同不是和美团签的，而是与外包公司签，社会保险，对不起，没有，只能给交3元/天的商业险，就这钱还得从佣金里扣，真是毁人三观。","content":"<html><body><p>原标题：美团代表对话巡视组：470万骑手均为外包公司员工，与我们无直接劳动关系</p><p>来源：豆仔说事</p><p>最近美团被巡视组约谈，才发现顶着“骑士王者”光环的美团玩的竟是空手套白狼的游戏，最核心的竞争力：470万骑手，居然全是外包，合同不是和美团签的，而是与外包公司签，社会保险，对不起，没有，只能给交3元/天的商业险，就这钱还得从佣金里扣，真是毁人三观。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/194/w637h357/20210510/88ee-kpuunnc8759676.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>这些骑手没有任何保障，每天为了多赚点钱，多送几单，骑着电车飞速穿行于各个大街小巷，穿梭于嘈杂的人群闹市和车辆拥堵的公路之中。但是美团却没有尽到一个大公司应有的责任和义务，只是踩在广大劳动者的身上贪婪的吸食着血液。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/216/w641h375/20210510/96f0-kpuunnc8760663.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>要知道，美团可是全国最大的互联网外卖零售平台，妥妥的超级巨头公司，应该肩负起一定的社会责任。即使你是商业资本化运作的公司，不想承担社会责任，但也不能这样的利欲熏心，置为你风里来雨里去的470万员工的合法权益于不顾，干活为你干，出了事你自己先摘干净。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/122/w641h281/20210510/e747-kpuunnc8761042.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>美团不要以为自己会大而不倒，任何不尊重劳动者、无社会责任感的企业必将为此付出应有的代价。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美团代表对话巡视组：470万骑手均为外包公司员工，与我们无直接劳动关系</title>\n<style 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href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2021-05-10/doc-ikmyaawc4364881.shtml><strong>财经自媒体</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：美团代表对话巡视组：470万骑手均为外包公司员工，与我们无直接劳动关系来源：豆仔说事最近美团被巡视组约谈，才发现顶着“骑士王者”光环的美团玩的竟是空手套白狼的游戏，最核心的竞争力：470万骑手，居然全是外包，合同不是和美团签的，而是与外包公司签，社会保险，对不起，没有，只能给交3元/天的商业险，就这钱还得从佣金里扣，真是毁人三观。这些骑手没有任何保障，每天为了多赚点钱，多送几单，骑着电车...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2021-05-10/doc-ikmyaawc4364881.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dbd4ef4cf9c9c3df70d9ff23af4de11","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","03690":"美团-W"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2021-05-10/doc-ikmyaawc4364881.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2134968122","content_text":"原标题：美团代表对话巡视组：470万骑手均为外包公司员工，与我们无直接劳动关系来源：豆仔说事最近美团被巡视组约谈，才发现顶着“骑士王者”光环的美团玩的竟是空手套白狼的游戏，最核心的竞争力：470万骑手，居然全是外包，合同不是和美团签的，而是与外包公司签，社会保险，对不起，没有，只能给交3元/天的商业险，就这钱还得从佣金里扣，真是毁人三观。这些骑手没有任何保障，每天为了多赚点钱，多送几单，骑着电车飞速穿行于各个大街小巷，穿梭于嘈杂的人群闹市和车辆拥堵的公路之中。但是美团却没有尽到一个大公司应有的责任和义务，只是踩在广大劳动者的身上贪婪的吸食着血液。要知道，美团可是全国最大的互联网外卖零售平台，妥妥的超级巨头公司，应该肩负起一定的社会责任。即使你是商业资本化运作的公司，不想承担社会责任，但也不能这样的利欲熏心，置为你风里来雨里去的470万员工的合法权益于不顾，干活为你干，出了事你自己先摘干净。美团不要以为自己会大而不倒，任何不尊重劳动者、无社会责任感的企业必将为此付出应有的代价。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3474326287970747","authorId":"3474326287970747","name":"兔子须","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"没什么用。吃官粮的不会在乎你想的一切。尤其不在乎龙头企业和投资者的死活，毕竟你们挣钱又不给他加工资，看着还眼红。关键是连依F治都是嘴上说说，动不动给你搞个巡视督察，即便你没有任何违法行为，即便你只是民营企业，又 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Inc.(XELA)$这么多人都预测要起飞的时候，感觉悬了，难不成让庄家带散户赚钱？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153722017","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3551397293314337","authorId":"3551397293314337","name":"充满正能量","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534bb69fd46bb2f72e8b2e80143eca71","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"增发了……","text":"增发了……","html":"增发了……"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164992412,"gmtCreate":1624164358636,"gmtModify":1624164358636,"author":{"id":"3461294587157154","authorId":"3461294587157154","name":"大船晴空","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ca12860ccf6451aef738e79727597","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>今天中考，突然在考生的复习资料上看到这个。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>今天中考，突然在考生的复习资料上看到这个。","text":"$美团-W(03690)$$腾讯控股(00700)$$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$今天中考，突然在考生的复习资料上看到这个。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c0d0583b53effda483694076dda50e0","width":"2304","height":"717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164992412","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3513498855058562","authorId":"3513498855058562","name":"入水而深","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30b644c79526908bc0a40a5cd89a6a67","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"从世界各国历史看，社会主义就是一起穷。","text":"从世界各国历史看，社会主义就是一起穷。","html":"从世界各国历史看，社会主义就是一起穷。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319115062,"gmtCreate":1611549757856,"gmtModify":1703750829248,"author":{"id":"3461294587157154","authorId":"3461294587157154","name":"大船晴空","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ca12860ccf6451aef738e79727597","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"上面的数据从哪里来的，我查了一下，2020股民平均盈利10万","listText":"上面的数据从哪里来的，我查了一下，2020股民平均盈利10万","text":"上面的数据从哪里来的，我查了一下，2020股民平均盈利10万","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319115062","repostId":"1142406984","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142406984","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1611535430,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142406984?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-25 08:43","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"是时候警惕A股第二波反噬了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142406984","media":"格隆汇","summary":"上周，A股各大指数纷纷放量上涨，再次创下3636.24点的新高，只有周五指数迎来调整，并没有影响某些龙头个股抱团的筹码松动。\n\n那么反噬何来呢？\n首先，反噬并不是意味着崩盘，只是市场震荡的汇总词，相较","content":"<p>上周，A股各大指数纷纷放量上涨，再次创下3636.24点的新高，只有周五指数迎来调整，并没有影响某些龙头个股抱团的筹码松动。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/702df60bec1d90650ebca5a00972b03a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\"></p>\n<p><b>那么反噬何来呢？</b></p>\n<p>首先，反噬并不是意味着崩盘，只是市场震荡的汇总词，相较于以前，买入一家公司，如果是顶部或者不被市场资金重视，基本上套6%以上的跌幅没跑的，这是非常普遍的现象，在2021年春季躁动的过程中，A股在1月第二周时候迎来一波抱团调整。</p>\n<p><b>比如：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">隆基股份</a>跌6.65%（1/14)，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>两天累跌超8%（1/14、1/15），万得白酒指数至今累跌超10%，万得军工指数至今累跌超15%。</b></p>\n<p>进入2021年，市场的三条主线：白酒、军工和新能源，在1月10日，很多龙头股被重锤。直到现在，依旧整体性再跑的唯有新能源这一条线，白酒依然在调整，军工也只有小部分个股在强势。</p>\n<p><b>这就是所谓的第一次反噬。</b></p>\n<p>如果非要去找原因，无非还是那几个点：<b>抱团的行业涨太多需要消化盈利盘，同时“省港骑兵”大幅度南下拉高恒生指数出现技术性调整带的情绪扰动。</b></p>\n<p>单单从盘面上看来，指数没有重挫，在一定的区间上震荡，但是股民却惨了，有这样一个数据显示，截至到上周，今年散户人均亏损10万。</p>\n<p>这10万里面，有一部分是没有躺对行业，在抱团造成的持续性抽血个股下跌造成，另一部分，则是在上周抱团行业调整造成的。毕竟，一旦调整，基本上7%以上的回调，震荡比以往更加厉害。<b>于投资者而言，很多时候3000点赚的钱，在3500点亏光也不是一次两次了。</b></p>\n<p>所以，今天这篇文章来看下当前机构分化的动向在哪？也应该去警惕抱团个股高位下是否存在第二次反噬，要知道，新能源当前积累的情绪可是一天比一天热。</p>\n<p>比如，宁德时代208倍、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>410倍、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01772\">赣锋锂业</a>522倍、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300014\">亿纬锂能</a>137倍，虽然隆基股份、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600438\">通威股份</a>两个光伏双龙的PE还在80附近，不过一旦某只龙头股情绪释放，其他公司很容易的就被带动，10%左右的调整都不奇怪。</p>\n<p><b>1、</b><b><b>资金去哪了？</b></b></p>\n<p>在来说这个问题之前，我们要看量能：当前市场量能还是处于非常健康的状态。在上周出现一定缩量的情况下，这周再次回到万亿的成交额，说明市场还是有钱的。</p>\n<p>同时年初以来的增量资金非常的明显，就是新募集的基金，成立新基金规模超千亿，在加上未来养老金的加速进场，所以机构这块进来的新钱较2020年整体来说不逞多让。</p>\n<p><b>当年初以来的三条主线抱团有一定的松散，流出来的钱去哪了？</b></p>\n<p><b>（1）南下</b></p>\n<p>截至到1月22日，南下资金累计流入超2200亿元，在近半个时间连续多天创下单日净流入记录。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80fd8bfea710f0a353212efef6733f7c\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"874\"></p>\n<p>于港股而言，一方面港股是价值洼地，因为全球活跃的几大市场就剩港股在坑里蹲着，再叠加大批优质的公司在港上市，投资价值的优势进一步突出。另一方面港股定价权之争，机构新募集过来的钱又有通道，自然不会放过为国抄底的机会。</p>\n<p><b>值得注意的是，资金大量的南下抄底港股，其实并不会给A股带来资金面的影响，相反，带来的市场情绪影响更大，尤其是对大蓝筹的影响。</b></p>\n<p>比如美的集团：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34edfd21aa1c2b1f9168c2be931875ae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"581\"></p>\n<p>中国平安：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49b5202b4c16d86225e9cb6378c6764\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\"></p>\n<p>格力电器：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19acec77460875b8b22e614f09ad798c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"548\"></p>\n<p><b>（2）强基本面支撑的中小盘</b></p>\n<p>在1月份上旬，根据东财Choice数据显示，截至1月15日，A股户均亏损超过10万元的公司有120家，这些公司合计股东户数为219万户。<b>这些数据的背后，是在机构抱团的趋势下，造成个股大规模抽血效应，市场资金过度集中。</b></p>\n<p>那么，在主线抱团出现一定放松之后，整个市场在保持热度成交量情况下，机构分化的方向，回流做多前期被极度抽血跌下来又有强支撑面的中小盘个股。这些有独特赛道或者优质业绩基本面的公司，很明显在在1月份下半旬开始放量：</p>\n<p>盐津铺子：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1c231c334c2cff3d503f3bf5e6412f2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\"></p>\n<p>特变电工：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/010ee3677b60801c19dbbac23c6c512c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"545\"></p>\n<p>美年健康：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a149c8336638ce614246bad7c59544f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\"></p>\n<p><b>2、</b><b><b>是时候警惕第二波反噬</b></b></p>\n<p>来复盘下这次抱团的时间，从阶段性底部的释放行情是在2020年7月份，以化工、新能源、军工、整车、白酒、顺周期这些构成，时间长达半年多。<b>这段时间完完全全是在去年机构资金以及新募集资金推动，背后是机构拿到了这些行业的定价权。</b></p>\n<p>除了上面这些行业的定价权被拿走外，<b>被拿走还有前期的抱团行业科技，医药。</b></p>\n<p>抛开外围的风险，当前市场的轮动，更多的只是抱团行业的快速风偏转换，当市场的抱团行业筹码出现一定松动的情况下，会出现前期抱团的比如科技，医药产生异动拉升的情况。<b>以前这个情况是抱团松，大蓝筹补涨。</b></p>\n<p>这个原因，在于这些前期抱团行业，机构掌握了大量的浮盈，变成了防守仓位，当进攻性的仓位有人抢跑之时，机构的资金很容易的自动对冲到原来的区域形成防守。</p>\n<p>这也就是目前这段时间，出现唯独新能源高歌，军工白酒依旧调整，科技和医药的某些龙头也在慢慢的动的盘面。<b>值得注意的是，防守来的快，去的也快。</b></p>\n<p>因为机构也是担心，自己卖出去了还能不能再买回来，所以，龙头的高溢价的背后造成当前机构资金谨小慎微，一有风吹草动就先趴下的原因，<b>所以这也是为什么大家都在说“芯片股，就是一个渣男！”</b></p>\n<p><b>这一周刷屏的公募四季度持仓</b>，基本上没有什么太大的变化，简单一图看懂：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b637093eb2d080bcb29b9711303004d\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"974\"></p>\n<p>大概的一个方向，就是一些头部涨幅巨大的个股出现少许的减持，比如比亚迪、隆基股份，宁德时代等等，<b>共同点就是南下抄底港股以及基金经理基本上一致性的降低2021年的收益。</b></p>\n<p>比如去年的公募冠军赵诣：“2019年新能源车估值下降，市场关注度降低，因此去年更容易赚到企业业绩增长的钱。然而，2021年投资新能源车就会比较难，一方面，这些板块的龙头企业估值提升，已经透支了一些未来的成长性；另一方面，当前获利者较多，今年一有风吹草动，获利盘就可能撤出。”</p>\n<p>易方达冯波认为：“短期和长期会有一些差异，明年可能是相对比较复杂的一年，一方面是经济情况表现很好，另一方面是估值提升在上升。对于明年，我们应该降低投资预期，回到正常的预期状态。”</p>\n<p><b>那么，如何警惕反噬的时间呢？</b></p>\n<p><b>（1）机构的风偏。</b>目前机构资金明显的两个趋势：南下抢钱，建仓前期超跌的具有强基本面的中小盘。透露出来的信号就是机构的偏防守的态度，不再过度集中的在几个方向做多。因为前期的过度性集中已经造成配置型资金的减仓或者调仓带来的震荡，给交易型资金的结果是获利出局。</p>\n<p>根据数据显示，截至到上周末，整个市场新发行的基金累计大概在3000多亿的增量资金，而目前这些机构基金已经吃了两年的超额收益，而上述这些基金很大一部分是属于开放式基金，那么一旦市场前期产生震荡导致大规模的赎回，会产生的踩踏或者进一步下跌。</p>\n<p><b>所以，对于这个时间点，要警惕便是外围风险的传导，比如拜登上台之后，美联储后续的动作是否会缩紧流动性。</b></p>\n<p><b>（2）空军在加速进场。</b>从下图来看，截至到1月21日，市场整体的做多力量在衰减，做空的单子已经明显的开始提升，IF2102的卖单量1640超过买单1056。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/561f2b54572bbb9b5be1fd71ff54cafc\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"854\"></p>\n<p><b>3、</b><b><b>小结</b></b></p>\n<p>当前的市场，无论从哪一个角度来说，机构抱团已经是达到的情绪化的高潮，最明显的便是新能源，在稍微回踩后继续猛冲。如果在下周或者未来半个月再次出现集体性的反噬回调，上下波动个15个点，我觉得正常。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>是时候警惕A股第二波反噬了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n是时候警惕A股第二波反噬了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-01-25 08:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>上周，A股各大指数纷纷放量上涨，再次创下3636.24点的新高，只有周五指数迎来调整，并没有影响某些龙头个股抱团的筹码松动。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/702df60bec1d90650ebca5a00972b03a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\"></p>\n<p><b>那么反噬何来呢？</b></p>\n<p>首先，反噬并不是意味着崩盘，只是市场震荡的汇总词，相较于以前，买入一家公司，如果是顶部或者不被市场资金重视，基本上套6%以上的跌幅没跑的，这是非常普遍的现象，在2021年春季躁动的过程中，A股在1月第二周时候迎来一波抱团调整。</p>\n<p><b>比如：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">隆基股份</a>跌6.65%（1/14)，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>两天累跌超8%（1/14、1/15），万得白酒指数至今累跌超10%，万得军工指数至今累跌超15%。</b></p>\n<p>进入2021年，市场的三条主线：白酒、军工和新能源，在1月10日，很多龙头股被重锤。直到现在，依旧整体性再跑的唯有新能源这一条线，白酒依然在调整，军工也只有小部分个股在强势。</p>\n<p><b>这就是所谓的第一次反噬。</b></p>\n<p>如果非要去找原因，无非还是那几个点：<b>抱团的行业涨太多需要消化盈利盘，同时“省港骑兵”大幅度南下拉高恒生指数出现技术性调整带的情绪扰动。</b></p>\n<p>单单从盘面上看来，指数没有重挫，在一定的区间上震荡，但是股民却惨了，有这样一个数据显示，截至到上周，今年散户人均亏损10万。</p>\n<p>这10万里面，有一部分是没有躺对行业，在抱团造成的持续性抽血个股下跌造成，另一部分，则是在上周抱团行业调整造成的。毕竟，一旦调整，基本上7%以上的回调，震荡比以往更加厉害。<b>于投资者而言，很多时候3000点赚的钱，在3500点亏光也不是一次两次了。</b></p>\n<p>所以，今天这篇文章来看下当前机构分化的动向在哪？也应该去警惕抱团个股高位下是否存在第二次反噬，要知道，新能源当前积累的情绪可是一天比一天热。</p>\n<p>比如，宁德时代208倍、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>410倍、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01772\">赣锋锂业</a>522倍、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300014\">亿纬锂能</a>137倍，虽然隆基股份、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600438\">通威股份</a>两个光伏双龙的PE还在80附近，不过一旦某只龙头股情绪释放，其他公司很容易的就被带动，10%左右的调整都不奇怪。</p>\n<p><b>1、</b><b><b>资金去哪了？</b></b></p>\n<p>在来说这个问题之前，我们要看量能：当前市场量能还是处于非常健康的状态。在上周出现一定缩量的情况下，这周再次回到万亿的成交额，说明市场还是有钱的。</p>\n<p>同时年初以来的增量资金非常的明显，就是新募集的基金，成立新基金规模超千亿，在加上未来养老金的加速进场，所以机构这块进来的新钱较2020年整体来说不逞多让。</p>\n<p><b>当年初以来的三条主线抱团有一定的松散，流出来的钱去哪了？</b></p>\n<p><b>（1）南下</b></p>\n<p>截至到1月22日，南下资金累计流入超2200亿元，在近半个时间连续多天创下单日净流入记录。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80fd8bfea710f0a353212efef6733f7c\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"874\"></p>\n<p>于港股而言，一方面港股是价值洼地，因为全球活跃的几大市场就剩港股在坑里蹲着，再叠加大批优质的公司在港上市，投资价值的优势进一步突出。另一方面港股定价权之争，机构新募集过来的钱又有通道，自然不会放过为国抄底的机会。</p>\n<p><b>值得注意的是，资金大量的南下抄底港股，其实并不会给A股带来资金面的影响，相反，带来的市场情绪影响更大，尤其是对大蓝筹的影响。</b></p>\n<p>比如美的集团：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34edfd21aa1c2b1f9168c2be931875ae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"581\"></p>\n<p>中国平安：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49b5202b4c16d86225e9cb6378c6764\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\"></p>\n<p>格力电器：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19acec77460875b8b22e614f09ad798c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"548\"></p>\n<p><b>（2）强基本面支撑的中小盘</b></p>\n<p>在1月份上旬，根据东财Choice数据显示，截至1月15日，A股户均亏损超过10万元的公司有120家，这些公司合计股东户数为219万户。<b>这些数据的背后，是在机构抱团的趋势下，造成个股大规模抽血效应，市场资金过度集中。</b></p>\n<p>那么，在主线抱团出现一定放松之后，整个市场在保持热度成交量情况下，机构分化的方向，回流做多前期被极度抽血跌下来又有强支撑面的中小盘个股。这些有独特赛道或者优质业绩基本面的公司，很明显在在1月份下半旬开始放量：</p>\n<p>盐津铺子：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1c231c334c2cff3d503f3bf5e6412f2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\"></p>\n<p>特变电工：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/010ee3677b60801c19dbbac23c6c512c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"545\"></p>\n<p>美年健康：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a149c8336638ce614246bad7c59544f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\"></p>\n<p><b>2、</b><b><b>是时候警惕第二波反噬</b></b></p>\n<p>来复盘下这次抱团的时间，从阶段性底部的释放行情是在2020年7月份，以化工、新能源、军工、整车、白酒、顺周期这些构成，时间长达半年多。<b>这段时间完完全全是在去年机构资金以及新募集资金推动，背后是机构拿到了这些行业的定价权。</b></p>\n<p>除了上面这些行业的定价权被拿走外，<b>被拿走还有前期的抱团行业科技，医药。</b></p>\n<p>抛开外围的风险，当前市场的轮动，更多的只是抱团行业的快速风偏转换，当市场的抱团行业筹码出现一定松动的情况下，会出现前期抱团的比如科技，医药产生异动拉升的情况。<b>以前这个情况是抱团松，大蓝筹补涨。</b></p>\n<p>这个原因，在于这些前期抱团行业，机构掌握了大量的浮盈，变成了防守仓位，当进攻性的仓位有人抢跑之时，机构的资金很容易的自动对冲到原来的区域形成防守。</p>\n<p>这也就是目前这段时间，出现唯独新能源高歌，军工白酒依旧调整，科技和医药的某些龙头也在慢慢的动的盘面。<b>值得注意的是，防守来的快，去的也快。</b></p>\n<p>因为机构也是担心，自己卖出去了还能不能再买回来，所以，龙头的高溢价的背后造成当前机构资金谨小慎微，一有风吹草动就先趴下的原因，<b>所以这也是为什么大家都在说“芯片股，就是一个渣男！”</b></p>\n<p><b>这一周刷屏的公募四季度持仓</b>，基本上没有什么太大的变化，简单一图看懂：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b637093eb2d080bcb29b9711303004d\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"974\"></p>\n<p>大概的一个方向，就是一些头部涨幅巨大的个股出现少许的减持，比如比亚迪、隆基股份，宁德时代等等，<b>共同点就是南下抄底港股以及基金经理基本上一致性的降低2021年的收益。</b></p>\n<p>比如去年的公募冠军赵诣：“2019年新能源车估值下降，市场关注度降低，因此去年更容易赚到企业业绩增长的钱。然而，2021年投资新能源车就会比较难，一方面，这些板块的龙头企业估值提升，已经透支了一些未来的成长性；另一方面，当前获利者较多，今年一有风吹草动，获利盘就可能撤出。”</p>\n<p>易方达冯波认为：“短期和长期会有一些差异，明年可能是相对比较复杂的一年，一方面是经济情况表现很好，另一方面是估值提升在上升。对于明年，我们应该降低投资预期，回到正常的预期状态。”</p>\n<p><b>那么，如何警惕反噬的时间呢？</b></p>\n<p><b>（1）机构的风偏。</b>目前机构资金明显的两个趋势：南下抢钱，建仓前期超跌的具有强基本面的中小盘。透露出来的信号就是机构的偏防守的态度，不再过度集中的在几个方向做多。因为前期的过度性集中已经造成配置型资金的减仓或者调仓带来的震荡，给交易型资金的结果是获利出局。</p>\n<p>根据数据显示，截至到上周末，整个市场新发行的基金累计大概在3000多亿的增量资金，而目前这些机构基金已经吃了两年的超额收益，而上述这些基金很大一部分是属于开放式基金，那么一旦市场前期产生震荡导致大规模的赎回，会产生的踩踏或者进一步下跌。</p>\n<p><b>所以，对于这个时间点，要警惕便是外围风险的传导，比如拜登上台之后，美联储后续的动作是否会缩紧流动性。</b></p>\n<p><b>（2）空军在加速进场。</b>从下图来看，截至到1月21日，市场整体的做多力量在衰减，做空的单子已经明显的开始提升，IF2102的卖单量1640超过买单1056。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/561f2b54572bbb9b5be1fd71ff54cafc\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"854\"></p>\n<p><b>3、</b><b><b>小结</b></b></p>\n<p>当前的市场，无论从哪一个角度来说，机构抱团已经是达到的情绪化的高潮，最明显的便是新能源，在稍微回踩后继续猛冲。如果在下周或者未来半个月再次出现集体性的反噬回调，上下波动个15个点，我觉得正常。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0a33d348220bb2adf940f6be33e5b4","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142406984","content_text":"上周，A股各大指数纷纷放量上涨，再次创下3636.24点的新高，只有周五指数迎来调整，并没有影响某些龙头个股抱团的筹码松动。\n\n那么反噬何来呢？\n首先，反噬并不是意味着崩盘，只是市场震荡的汇总词，相较于以前，买入一家公司，如果是顶部或者不被市场资金重视，基本上套6%以上的跌幅没跑的，这是非常普遍的现象，在2021年春季躁动的过程中，A股在1月第二周时候迎来一波抱团调整。\n比如：隆基股份跌6.65%（1/14)，宁德时代两天累跌超8%（1/14、1/15），万得白酒指数至今累跌超10%，万得军工指数至今累跌超15%。\n进入2021年，市场的三条主线：白酒、军工和新能源，在1月10日，很多龙头股被重锤。直到现在，依旧整体性再跑的唯有新能源这一条线，白酒依然在调整，军工也只有小部分个股在强势。\n这就是所谓的第一次反噬。\n如果非要去找原因，无非还是那几个点：抱团的行业涨太多需要消化盈利盘，同时“省港骑兵”大幅度南下拉高恒生指数出现技术性调整带的情绪扰动。\n单单从盘面上看来，指数没有重挫，在一定的区间上震荡，但是股民却惨了，有这样一个数据显示，截至到上周，今年散户人均亏损10万。\n这10万里面，有一部分是没有躺对行业，在抱团造成的持续性抽血个股下跌造成，另一部分，则是在上周抱团行业调整造成的。毕竟，一旦调整，基本上7%以上的回调，震荡比以往更加厉害。于投资者而言，很多时候3000点赚的钱，在3500点亏光也不是一次两次了。\n所以，今天这篇文章来看下当前机构分化的动向在哪？也应该去警惕抱团个股高位下是否存在第二次反噬，要知道，新能源当前积累的情绪可是一天比一天热。\n比如，宁德时代208倍、比亚迪410倍、赣锋锂业522倍、亿纬锂能137倍，虽然隆基股份、通威股份两个光伏双龙的PE还在80附近，不过一旦某只龙头股情绪释放，其他公司很容易的就被带动，10%左右的调整都不奇怪。\n1、资金去哪了？\n在来说这个问题之前，我们要看量能：当前市场量能还是处于非常健康的状态。在上周出现一定缩量的情况下，这周再次回到万亿的成交额，说明市场还是有钱的。\n同时年初以来的增量资金非常的明显，就是新募集的基金，成立新基金规模超千亿，在加上未来养老金的加速进场，所以机构这块进来的新钱较2020年整体来说不逞多让。\n当年初以来的三条主线抱团有一定的松散，流出来的钱去哪了？\n（1）南下\n截至到1月22日，南下资金累计流入超2200亿元，在近半个时间连续多天创下单日净流入记录。\n\n于港股而言，一方面港股是价值洼地，因为全球活跃的几大市场就剩港股在坑里蹲着，再叠加大批优质的公司在港上市，投资价值的优势进一步突出。另一方面港股定价权之争，机构新募集过来的钱又有通道，自然不会放过为国抄底的机会。\n值得注意的是，资金大量的南下抄底港股，其实并不会给A股带来资金面的影响，相反，带来的市场情绪影响更大，尤其是对大蓝筹的影响。\n比如美的集团：\n\n中国平安：\n\n格力电器：\n\n（2）强基本面支撑的中小盘\n在1月份上旬，根据东财Choice数据显示，截至1月15日，A股户均亏损超过10万元的公司有120家，这些公司合计股东户数为219万户。这些数据的背后，是在机构抱团的趋势下，造成个股大规模抽血效应，市场资金过度集中。\n那么，在主线抱团出现一定放松之后，整个市场在保持热度成交量情况下，机构分化的方向，回流做多前期被极度抽血跌下来又有强支撑面的中小盘个股。这些有独特赛道或者优质业绩基本面的公司，很明显在在1月份下半旬开始放量：\n盐津铺子：\n\n特变电工：\n\n美年健康：\n\n2、是时候警惕第二波反噬\n来复盘下这次抱团的时间，从阶段性底部的释放行情是在2020年7月份，以化工、新能源、军工、整车、白酒、顺周期这些构成，时间长达半年多。这段时间完完全全是在去年机构资金以及新募集资金推动，背后是机构拿到了这些行业的定价权。\n除了上面这些行业的定价权被拿走外，被拿走还有前期的抱团行业科技，医药。\n抛开外围的风险，当前市场的轮动，更多的只是抱团行业的快速风偏转换，当市场的抱团行业筹码出现一定松动的情况下，会出现前期抱团的比如科技，医药产生异动拉升的情况。以前这个情况是抱团松，大蓝筹补涨。\n这个原因，在于这些前期抱团行业，机构掌握了大量的浮盈，变成了防守仓位，当进攻性的仓位有人抢跑之时，机构的资金很容易的自动对冲到原来的区域形成防守。\n这也就是目前这段时间，出现唯独新能源高歌，军工白酒依旧调整，科技和医药的某些龙头也在慢慢的动的盘面。值得注意的是，防守来的快，去的也快。\n因为机构也是担心，自己卖出去了还能不能再买回来，所以，龙头的高溢价的背后造成当前机构资金谨小慎微，一有风吹草动就先趴下的原因，所以这也是为什么大家都在说“芯片股，就是一个渣男！”\n这一周刷屏的公募四季度持仓，基本上没有什么太大的变化，简单一图看懂：\n\n大概的一个方向，就是一些头部涨幅巨大的个股出现少许的减持，比如比亚迪、隆基股份，宁德时代等等，共同点就是南下抄底港股以及基金经理基本上一致性的降低2021年的收益。\n比如去年的公募冠军赵诣：“2019年新能源车估值下降，市场关注度降低，因此去年更容易赚到企业业绩增长的钱。然而，2021年投资新能源车就会比较难，一方面，这些板块的龙头企业估值提升，已经透支了一些未来的成长性；另一方面，当前获利者较多，今年一有风吹草动，获利盘就可能撤出。”\n易方达冯波认为：“短期和长期会有一些差异，明年可能是相对比较复杂的一年，一方面是经济情况表现很好，另一方面是估值提升在上升。对于明年，我们应该降低投资预期，回到正常的预期状态。”\n那么，如何警惕反噬的时间呢？\n（1）机构的风偏。目前机构资金明显的两个趋势：南下抢钱，建仓前期超跌的具有强基本面的中小盘。透露出来的信号就是机构的偏防守的态度，不再过度集中的在几个方向做多。因为前期的过度性集中已经造成配置型资金的减仓或者调仓带来的震荡，给交易型资金的结果是获利出局。\n根据数据显示，截至到上周末，整个市场新发行的基金累计大概在3000多亿的增量资金，而目前这些机构基金已经吃了两年的超额收益，而上述这些基金很大一部分是属于开放式基金，那么一旦市场前期产生震荡导致大规模的赎回，会产生的踩踏或者进一步下跌。\n所以，对于这个时间点，要警惕便是外围风险的传导，比如拜登上台之后，美联储后续的动作是否会缩紧流动性。\n（2）空军在加速进场。从下图来看，截至到1月21日，市场整体的做多力量在衰减，做空的单子已经明显的开始提升，IF2102的卖单量1640超过买单1056。\n\n3、小结\n当前的市场，无论从哪一个角度来说，机构抱团已经是达到的情绪化的高潮，最明显的便是新能源，在稍微回踩后继续猛冲。如果在下周或者未来半个月再次出现集体性的反噬回调，上下波动个15个点，我觉得正常。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1011,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3548331411539988","authorId":"3548331411539988","name":"林14986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a23180587b837fd9dd627393cd52d56","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"我严重拖累[流泪]","text":"我严重拖累[流泪]","html":"我严重拖累[流泪]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":226745,"gmtCreate":1532558066819,"gmtModify":1704897769167,"author":{"id":"3461294587157154","authorId":"3461294587157154","name":"大船晴空","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ca12860ccf6451aef738e79727597","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Facebook(FB)$有抄底的吗？","listText":"$Facebook(FB)$有抄底的吗？","text":"$Facebook(FB)$有抄底的吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/226745","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":26,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3487218663479112","authorId":"3487218663479112","name":"朝阳夕夏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99cfe4b0a492018c40761a39a193aa8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"166算嗎😂","text":"166算嗎😂","html":"166算嗎😂"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":190320,"gmtCreate":1526397455098,"gmtModify":1704893050639,"author":{"id":"3461294587157154","authorId":"3461294587157154","name":"大船晴空","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ca12860ccf6451aef738e79727597","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"英伟达这一跌是怎么回事，哪位大神知道？","htmlText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$如题","listText":"$英伟达(NVDA)$如题","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$如题","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":52,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3465173740914335","authorId":"3465173740914335","name":"RankShare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd54b458055a79b00dbf2fe1a49c200","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"255涨不上去 做空投机回报大，趁今天大盘空一波，近期会回补的、没利空消息，还不加仓？","text":"255涨不上去 做空投机回报大，趁今天大盘空一波，近期会回补的、没利空消息，还不加仓？","html":"255涨不上去 做空投机回报大，趁今天大盘空一波，近期会回补的、没利空消息，还不加仓？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}