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大王叫我来炒美股
2021-12-01
$蔚来(NIO)$
绷不住了,这个月销量完蛋了吧
大王叫我来炒美股
2017-11-17
$网易(NTES)$ 网易二季度和三季度为啥这么大差距。。。。
大王叫我来炒美股
2018-06-18
$华米科技(HMI)$这货真垃圾。。。买了就没涨过
大王叫我来炒美股
2017-12-28
还有大佬在里面吗?
$On Track Innovations Ltd(OTIV)$ 亏了5个点了
还有大佬在里面吗?
大王叫我来炒美股
2021-03-03
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
jack ma 跑了?
大王叫我来炒美股
2021-11-09
又吹牛逼
2022年海外中资股展望:价值崛起!
大王叫我来炒美股
2021-03-01
$蔚来(NIO)$
第一次买做空还是做多,各位大佬
大王叫我来炒美股
2021-03-11
$游戏驿站(GME)$
哈哈哈,突突突
大王叫我来炒美股
2018-06-07
$晶科能源(JKS)$成本129,高高挂起。。。
大王叫我来炒美股
2018-06-14
$虎牙(HUYA)$老哥们,我44.3空了虎牙
大王叫我来炒美股
2017-10-17
$陌陌(MOMO)$ 又跌了。。。
大王叫我来炒美股
2021-09-15
$蔚来(NIO)$
牛逼吹的震天响,高端车企
大王叫我来炒美股
2021-11-23
$蔚来(NIO)$
丢人。。。
大王叫我来炒美股
2021-11-17
$蔚来(NIO)$
太拉跨了。。。丢脸
大王叫我来炒美股
2021-08-12
$贝壳(BEKE)$
解散了吧,哈哈,去厂里上班多好,非要干中介
大王叫我来炒美股
2021-03-06
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
今晚翻红
大王叫我来炒美股
2018-06-15
$虎牙(HUYA)$换手率80%,勇士们继续
大王叫我来炒美股
2018-05-10
$第九城市(NCTY)$继续跌回3毛
大王叫我来炒美股
2018-01-04
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$空头继续呀,砸到3个点接盘
大王叫我来炒美股
2017-12-18
下来吧,别演了
$唯品会(VIPS)$ 只有女装大佬能救VIP😂
下来吧,别演了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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11:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"2022年海外中资股展望:价值崛起!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177700936","media":"中信证券研究","summary":"以港股为代表的海外上市中国公司估值已处于历史底部,恒生指数接近“破净”,A/H折溢价目前在145左右,相对A股折价接近历史最高点。展望2022年,我们预计监管政策将趋于常态化。本轮监管对互联网等行业产","content":"<p>以港股为代表的海外上市中国公司估值已处于历史底部,恒生指数接近“破净”,A/H折溢价目前在145左右,相对A股折价接近历史最高点。展望2022年,我们预计监管政策将趋于常态化。本轮监管对互联网等行业产生深远影响,但强监管下市场会更快进入“去伪求真”(参考2018年医药经历“集采”后创新药崛起)。境外对地产企业无序违约担忧将逐步释放,地产调控的关注点也会从信用风险转向更中长期如“房产税”等制度建设。我们预计MSCI China明年盈利增速将达到11%(vs 一致预期12% in 2021),恒生指数盈利增速将达12%(vs一致预期2% in 2021)。“再通胀”依旧是主线,但明年的关注点将切换到CPI及消费品涨价。产业升级是发展的大趋势,中国核心优势还是先进制造力。监管政策的引导下,资本市场估值也将有所体现,持续看好高景气高资本开支行业:工业数字化(云计算),新能源,半导体,CXO等,但从投资角度,我们会更注重其在内在业绩增长的持续性和目前估值匹配度。</p>\n<p><b>以港股为代表的海外上市中国公司估值已处于历史底部,但内部结构分化仍很严重。</b></p>\n<p>受到“反垄断”,“双减”及地产政策等影响,今年以来海外上市的中国“核心资产”普遍表现不佳,而顺周期,新能源相关的表现相对较好,板块内结构出现明显分化。港股恒生指数在8月以来接近“破净”,如考虑2020年恒生指数纳入阿里巴巴、美团等对权重的影响,估值更低。相较于A股, A/H折溢价目前在145左右,接近历史最高点。我们认为,整体而言市场已充分反映或可能过多反映负面情绪,而投资者又拥挤交易在有限的板块:国潮品牌、新能源运营商、CXO等。</p>\n<p><b>展望2022年,风险逐步落地,监管常态化将有助于估值修复,特别对政策强监管行业及产业链。</b></p>\n<p>2022年,我们预计监管政策将趋于常态化,总体以“稳”为主。境外对地产企业无序违约担忧将逐步释放,地产调控的关注点也将从信用风险转向更中长期如“房产税”等制度建设议题,有利于降低整体尾部风险。本轮监管政策密集落地,对互联网等行业产生深远影响,强监管下市场会更快进入“去伪求真”的阶段(参考2018年医疗行业经历“集采”过后,真正具备创新能力的药企崛起),创新是科技或互联网永恒主线。我们预计在《个人信息保护法》等法规相继落地后,具备良好公司治理能力的公司有望脱颖而出。地产行业在信用压力下,我们看到其下属物业板块通过兼并重组,集中度有望迅速提升,利好龙头公司。</p>\n<p><b>“再通胀”依旧是主线,但明年的关注将切换到CPI及消费品涨价。</b></p>\n<p>我们预计MSCI China明年盈利增速将达到11%(vs一致预期12% in 2021),恒生指数盈利增速将达12% (vs一致预期2% in 2021)。消费今年明显受到压制,汽车缺芯等供给侧问题也影响整体消费增速,上游端成本压力进一步影响盈利水平。明年通胀环境下,我们预计PPI端的涨价压力将逐步向CPI传导,部分调味品、酒的涨价今年已经有所端倪,明年必选消费品中养殖、食品饮料等各类细分品种涨价逻辑或成为贯穿全年投资主线。2021年局部散点疫情抑制了国内消费场景的复苏,但参考今年“五一”期间全国未出现大范围疫情的情况下,酒店龙头RevPAR均恢复至2019年同期水平,甚至更优。叠加明年潜在的通关预期,国内服务相关消费或有超预期可能。</p>\n<p><b>创新不眠,产业升级是中国发展的大趋势,中国核心优势还是先进制造力,在监管政策的引导下,资本市场估值也将有所体现。我们持续关注高景气、高资本开支的工业数字化(云计算)、新能源、半导体、CXO等。</b></p>\n<p>疫情对数字化加速有不可逆的影响,中国的产业升级也因“碳中和”明显加速。在MSCI China细分赛道中,动力电池、光伏、半导体、CXO、电子元器件、军工等细分赛道过去几年资本开支始终处于上行阶段,未来数年内有望逐渐进入业绩兑现期。但这些高景气赛道普遍处于较高估值分位,我们将更注重其业绩增长的持续性和估值的匹配度。</p>\n<p><b>风险因素:</b></p>\n<p>中美关系恶化风险,中国及全球宏观经济修复不及预期,国内流动性收紧,房地产企业信用风险持续发酵,相关产业政策不达预期风险。</p>\n<p><b>投资策略:</b></p>\n<p>展望明年,我们在投资上聚焦3条主线:消费品涨价、碳中和及创新转型(数字化和CXO)。由于目前市场个别板块处在极限低估位置,我们同时加入部分高分红的低估值个股。结合行业分析师推荐,我们看好海外上市中资股中的腾讯控股、百度集团-SW、阿里巴巴-SW、华虹半导体、舜宇光学科技、碧桂园服务、华润万象生活、吉利汽车、福耀玻璃、JS环球生活、华住酒店-SW、蒙牛乳业、药明康德、邮储银行、赣锋锂业、金风科技、海吉亚医疗、华润电力、广发证券、港交所,A股中的温氏股份、大北农、绝味食品、贵州茅台、珀莱雅、北新建材、长城汽车、拓普集团、通威股份、大全能源、晶盛机电、奥特维、亿纬锂能、新宙邦、深信服、歌尔股份、紫光国微、石基信息、迈瑞医疗、三花智控。</p>","source":"zxzqyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2022年海外中资股展望:价值崛起!</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2022年海外中资股展望:价值崛起!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-09 11:33 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/K91jMN5L4_4dCaJKNt57Jg><strong>中信证券研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>以港股为代表的海外上市中国公司估值已处于历史底部,恒生指数接近“破净”,A/H折溢价目前在145左右,相对A股折价接近历史最高点。展望2022年,我们预计监管政策将趋于常态化。本轮监管对互联网等行业产生深远影响,但强监管下市场会更快进入“去伪求真”(参考2018年医药经历“集采”后创新药崛起)。境外对地产企业无序违约担忧将逐步释放,地产调控的关注点也会从信用风险转向更中长期如“房产税”等制度建设。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/K91jMN5L4_4dCaJKNt57Jg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/K91jMN5L4_4dCaJKNt57Jg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177700936","content_text":"以港股为代表的海外上市中国公司估值已处于历史底部,恒生指数接近“破净”,A/H折溢价目前在145左右,相对A股折价接近历史最高点。展望2022年,我们预计监管政策将趋于常态化。本轮监管对互联网等行业产生深远影响,但强监管下市场会更快进入“去伪求真”(参考2018年医药经历“集采”后创新药崛起)。境外对地产企业无序违约担忧将逐步释放,地产调控的关注点也会从信用风险转向更中长期如“房产税”等制度建设。我们预计MSCI China明年盈利增速将达到11%(vs 一致预期12% in 2021),恒生指数盈利增速将达12%(vs一致预期2% in 2021)。“再通胀”依旧是主线,但明年的关注点将切换到CPI及消费品涨价。产业升级是发展的大趋势,中国核心优势还是先进制造力。监管政策的引导下,资本市场估值也将有所体现,持续看好高景气高资本开支行业:工业数字化(云计算),新能源,半导体,CXO等,但从投资角度,我们会更注重其在内在业绩增长的持续性和目前估值匹配度。\n以港股为代表的海外上市中国公司估值已处于历史底部,但内部结构分化仍很严重。\n受到“反垄断”,“双减”及地产政策等影响,今年以来海外上市的中国“核心资产”普遍表现不佳,而顺周期,新能源相关的表现相对较好,板块内结构出现明显分化。港股恒生指数在8月以来接近“破净”,如考虑2020年恒生指数纳入阿里巴巴、美团等对权重的影响,估值更低。相较于A股, A/H折溢价目前在145左右,接近历史最高点。我们认为,整体而言市场已充分反映或可能过多反映负面情绪,而投资者又拥挤交易在有限的板块:国潮品牌、新能源运营商、CXO等。\n展望2022年,风险逐步落地,监管常态化将有助于估值修复,特别对政策强监管行业及产业链。\n2022年,我们预计监管政策将趋于常态化,总体以“稳”为主。境外对地产企业无序违约担忧将逐步释放,地产调控的关注点也将从信用风险转向更中长期如“房产税”等制度建设议题,有利于降低整体尾部风险。本轮监管政策密集落地,对互联网等行业产生深远影响,强监管下市场会更快进入“去伪求真”的阶段(参考2018年医疗行业经历“集采”过后,真正具备创新能力的药企崛起),创新是科技或互联网永恒主线。我们预计在《个人信息保护法》等法规相继落地后,具备良好公司治理能力的公司有望脱颖而出。地产行业在信用压力下,我们看到其下属物业板块通过兼并重组,集中度有望迅速提升,利好龙头公司。\n“再通胀”依旧是主线,但明年的关注将切换到CPI及消费品涨价。\n我们预计MSCI China明年盈利增速将达到11%(vs一致预期12% in 2021),恒生指数盈利增速将达12% (vs一致预期2% in 2021)。消费今年明显受到压制,汽车缺芯等供给侧问题也影响整体消费增速,上游端成本压力进一步影响盈利水平。明年通胀环境下,我们预计PPI端的涨价压力将逐步向CPI传导,部分调味品、酒的涨价今年已经有所端倪,明年必选消费品中养殖、食品饮料等各类细分品种涨价逻辑或成为贯穿全年投资主线。2021年局部散点疫情抑制了国内消费场景的复苏,但参考今年“五一”期间全国未出现大范围疫情的情况下,酒店龙头RevPAR均恢复至2019年同期水平,甚至更优。叠加明年潜在的通关预期,国内服务相关消费或有超预期可能。\n创新不眠,产业升级是中国发展的大趋势,中国核心优势还是先进制造力,在监管政策的引导下,资本市场估值也将有所体现。我们持续关注高景气、高资本开支的工业数字化(云计算)、新能源、半导体、CXO等。\n疫情对数字化加速有不可逆的影响,中国的产业升级也因“碳中和”明显加速。在MSCI 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11:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"2022年海外中资股展望:价值崛起!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177700936","media":"中信证券研究","summary":"以港股为代表的海外上市中国公司估值已处于历史底部,恒生指数接近“破净”,A/H折溢价目前在145左右,相对A股折价接近历史最高点。展望2022年,我们预计监管政策将趋于常态化。本轮监管对互联网等行业产","content":"<p>以港股为代表的海外上市中国公司估值已处于历史底部,恒生指数接近“破净”,A/H折溢价目前在145左右,相对A股折价接近历史最高点。展望2022年,我们预计监管政策将趋于常态化。本轮监管对互联网等行业产生深远影响,但强监管下市场会更快进入“去伪求真”(参考2018年医药经历“集采”后创新药崛起)。境外对地产企业无序违约担忧将逐步释放,地产调控的关注点也会从信用风险转向更中长期如“房产税”等制度建设。我们预计MSCI China明年盈利增速将达到11%(vs 一致预期12% in 2021),恒生指数盈利增速将达12%(vs一致预期2% in 2021)。“再通胀”依旧是主线,但明年的关注点将切换到CPI及消费品涨价。产业升级是发展的大趋势,中国核心优势还是先进制造力。监管政策的引导下,资本市场估值也将有所体现,持续看好高景气高资本开支行业:工业数字化(云计算),新能源,半导体,CXO等,但从投资角度,我们会更注重其在内在业绩增长的持续性和目前估值匹配度。</p>\n<p><b>以港股为代表的海外上市中国公司估值已处于历史底部,但内部结构分化仍很严重。</b></p>\n<p>受到“反垄断”,“双减”及地产政策等影响,今年以来海外上市的中国“核心资产”普遍表现不佳,而顺周期,新能源相关的表现相对较好,板块内结构出现明显分化。港股恒生指数在8月以来接近“破净”,如考虑2020年恒生指数纳入阿里巴巴、美团等对权重的影响,估值更低。相较于A股, A/H折溢价目前在145左右,接近历史最高点。我们认为,整体而言市场已充分反映或可能过多反映负面情绪,而投资者又拥挤交易在有限的板块:国潮品牌、新能源运营商、CXO等。</p>\n<p><b>展望2022年,风险逐步落地,监管常态化将有助于估值修复,特别对政策强监管行业及产业链。</b></p>\n<p>2022年,我们预计监管政策将趋于常态化,总体以“稳”为主。境外对地产企业无序违约担忧将逐步释放,地产调控的关注点也将从信用风险转向更中长期如“房产税”等制度建设议题,有利于降低整体尾部风险。本轮监管政策密集落地,对互联网等行业产生深远影响,强监管下市场会更快进入“去伪求真”的阶段(参考2018年医疗行业经历“集采”过后,真正具备创新能力的药企崛起),创新是科技或互联网永恒主线。我们预计在《个人信息保护法》等法规相继落地后,具备良好公司治理能力的公司有望脱颖而出。地产行业在信用压力下,我们看到其下属物业板块通过兼并重组,集中度有望迅速提升,利好龙头公司。</p>\n<p><b>“再通胀”依旧是主线,但明年的关注将切换到CPI及消费品涨价。</b></p>\n<p>我们预计MSCI China明年盈利增速将达到11%(vs一致预期12% in 2021),恒生指数盈利增速将达12% (vs一致预期2% in 2021)。消费今年明显受到压制,汽车缺芯等供给侧问题也影响整体消费增速,上游端成本压力进一步影响盈利水平。明年通胀环境下,我们预计PPI端的涨价压力将逐步向CPI传导,部分调味品、酒的涨价今年已经有所端倪,明年必选消费品中养殖、食品饮料等各类细分品种涨价逻辑或成为贯穿全年投资主线。2021年局部散点疫情抑制了国内消费场景的复苏,但参考今年“五一”期间全国未出现大范围疫情的情况下,酒店龙头RevPAR均恢复至2019年同期水平,甚至更优。叠加明年潜在的通关预期,国内服务相关消费或有超预期可能。</p>\n<p><b>创新不眠,产业升级是中国发展的大趋势,中国核心优势还是先进制造力,在监管政策的引导下,资本市场估值也将有所体现。我们持续关注高景气、高资本开支的工业数字化(云计算)、新能源、半导体、CXO等。</b></p>\n<p>疫情对数字化加速有不可逆的影响,中国的产业升级也因“碳中和”明显加速。在MSCI China细分赛道中,动力电池、光伏、半导体、CXO、电子元器件、军工等细分赛道过去几年资本开支始终处于上行阶段,未来数年内有望逐渐进入业绩兑现期。但这些高景气赛道普遍处于较高估值分位,我们将更注重其业绩增长的持续性和估值的匹配度。</p>\n<p><b>风险因素:</b></p>\n<p>中美关系恶化风险,中国及全球宏观经济修复不及预期,国内流动性收紧,房地产企业信用风险持续发酵,相关产业政策不达预期风险。</p>\n<p><b>投资策略:</b></p>\n<p>展望明年,我们在投资上聚焦3条主线:消费品涨价、碳中和及创新转型(数字化和CXO)。由于目前市场个别板块处在极限低估位置,我们同时加入部分高分红的低估值个股。结合行业分析师推荐,我们看好海外上市中资股中的腾讯控股、百度集团-SW、阿里巴巴-SW、华虹半导体、舜宇光学科技、碧桂园服务、华润万象生活、吉利汽车、福耀玻璃、JS环球生活、华住酒店-SW、蒙牛乳业、药明康德、邮储银行、赣锋锂业、金风科技、海吉亚医疗、华润电力、广发证券、港交所,A股中的温氏股份、大北农、绝味食品、贵州茅台、珀莱雅、北新建材、长城汽车、拓普集团、通威股份、大全能源、晶盛机电、奥特维、亿纬锂能、新宙邦、深信服、歌尔股份、紫光国微、石基信息、迈瑞医疗、三花智控。</p>","source":"zxzqyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2022年海外中资股展望:价值崛起!</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2022年海外中资股展望:价值崛起!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-09 11:33 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/K91jMN5L4_4dCaJKNt57Jg><strong>中信证券研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>以港股为代表的海外上市中国公司估值已处于历史底部,恒生指数接近“破净”,A/H折溢价目前在145左右,相对A股折价接近历史最高点。展望2022年,我们预计监管政策将趋于常态化。本轮监管对互联网等行业产生深远影响,但强监管下市场会更快进入“去伪求真”(参考2018年医药经历“集采”后创新药崛起)。境外对地产企业无序违约担忧将逐步释放,地产调控的关注点也会从信用风险转向更中长期如“房产税”等制度建设。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/K91jMN5L4_4dCaJKNt57Jg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/K91jMN5L4_4dCaJKNt57Jg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177700936","content_text":"以港股为代表的海外上市中国公司估值已处于历史底部,恒生指数接近“破净”,A/H折溢价目前在145左右,相对A股折价接近历史最高点。展望2022年,我们预计监管政策将趋于常态化。本轮监管对互联网等行业产生深远影响,但强监管下市场会更快进入“去伪求真”(参考2018年医药经历“集采”后创新药崛起)。境外对地产企业无序违约担忧将逐步释放,地产调控的关注点也会从信用风险转向更中长期如“房产税”等制度建设。我们预计MSCI China明年盈利增速将达到11%(vs 一致预期12% in 2021),恒生指数盈利增速将达12%(vs一致预期2% in 2021)。“再通胀”依旧是主线,但明年的关注点将切换到CPI及消费品涨价。产业升级是发展的大趋势,中国核心优势还是先进制造力。监管政策的引导下,资本市场估值也将有所体现,持续看好高景气高资本开支行业:工业数字化(云计算),新能源,半导体,CXO等,但从投资角度,我们会更注重其在内在业绩增长的持续性和目前估值匹配度。\n以港股为代表的海外上市中国公司估值已处于历史底部,但内部结构分化仍很严重。\n受到“反垄断”,“双减”及地产政策等影响,今年以来海外上市的中国“核心资产”普遍表现不佳,而顺周期,新能源相关的表现相对较好,板块内结构出现明显分化。港股恒生指数在8月以来接近“破净”,如考虑2020年恒生指数纳入阿里巴巴、美团等对权重的影响,估值更低。相较于A股, A/H折溢价目前在145左右,接近历史最高点。我们认为,整体而言市场已充分反映或可能过多反映负面情绪,而投资者又拥挤交易在有限的板块:国潮品牌、新能源运营商、CXO等。\n展望2022年,风险逐步落地,监管常态化将有助于估值修复,特别对政策强监管行业及产业链。\n2022年,我们预计监管政策将趋于常态化,总体以“稳”为主。境外对地产企业无序违约担忧将逐步释放,地产调控的关注点也将从信用风险转向更中长期如“房产税”等制度建设议题,有利于降低整体尾部风险。本轮监管政策密集落地,对互联网等行业产生深远影响,强监管下市场会更快进入“去伪求真”的阶段(参考2018年医疗行业经历“集采”过后,真正具备创新能力的药企崛起),创新是科技或互联网永恒主线。我们预计在《个人信息保护法》等法规相继落地后,具备良好公司治理能力的公司有望脱颖而出。地产行业在信用压力下,我们看到其下属物业板块通过兼并重组,集中度有望迅速提升,利好龙头公司。\n“再通胀”依旧是主线,但明年的关注将切换到CPI及消费品涨价。\n我们预计MSCI China明年盈利增速将达到11%(vs一致预期12% in 2021),恒生指数盈利增速将达12% (vs一致预期2% in 2021)。消费今年明显受到压制,汽车缺芯等供给侧问题也影响整体消费增速,上游端成本压力进一步影响盈利水平。明年通胀环境下,我们预计PPI端的涨价压力将逐步向CPI传导,部分调味品、酒的涨价今年已经有所端倪,明年必选消费品中养殖、食品饮料等各类细分品种涨价逻辑或成为贯穿全年投资主线。2021年局部散点疫情抑制了国内消费场景的复苏,但参考今年“五一”期间全国未出现大范围疫情的情况下,酒店龙头RevPAR均恢复至2019年同期水平,甚至更优。叠加明年潜在的通关预期,国内服务相关消费或有超预期可能。\n创新不眠,产业升级是中国发展的大趋势,中国核心优势还是先进制造力,在监管政策的引导下,资本市场估值也将有所体现。我们持续关注高景气、高资本开支的工业数字化(云计算)、新能源、半导体、CXO等。\n疫情对数字化加速有不可逆的影响,中国的产业升级也因“碳中和”明显加速。在MSCI China细分赛道中,动力电池、光伏、半导体、CXO、电子元器件、军工等细分赛道过去几年资本开支始终处于上行阶段,未来数年内有望逐渐进入业绩兑现期。但这些高景气赛道普遍处于较高估值分位,我们将更注重其业绩增长的持续性和估值的匹配度。\n风险因素:\n中美关系恶化风险,中国及全球宏观经济修复不及预期,国内流动性收紧,房地产企业信用风险持续发酵,相关产业政策不达预期风险。\n投资策略:\n展望明年,我们在投资上聚焦3条主线:消费品涨价、碳中和及创新转型(数字化和CXO)。由于目前市场个别板块处在极限低估位置,我们同时加入部分高分红的低估值个股。结合行业分析师推荐,我们看好海外上市中资股中的腾讯控股、百度集团-SW、阿里巴巴-SW、华虹半导体、舜宇光学科技、碧桂园服务、华润万象生活、吉利汽车、福耀玻璃、JS环球生活、华住酒店-SW、蒙牛乳业、药明康德、邮储银行、赣锋锂业、金风科技、海吉亚医疗、华润电力、广发证券、港交所,A股中的温氏股份、大北农、绝味食品、贵州茅台、珀莱雅、北新建材、长城汽车、拓普集团、通威股份、大全能源、晶盛机电、奥特维、亿纬锂能、新宙邦、深信服、歌尔股份、紫光国微、石基信息、迈瑞医疗、三花智控。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362353896,"gmtCreate":1614600254215,"gmtModify":1703478675490,"author":{"id":"3457336653825914","authorId":"3457336653825914","name":"大王叫我来炒美股","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/61f89085198648f76f5a2c8d2a7baf71","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3457336653825914","authorIdStr":"3457336653825914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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