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没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
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没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2023-07-14
$NQ100指数主连 2309(NQmain)$
严重看空
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2019-10-25
$黄金主连(GCmain)$
黄金为什么这两天涨这么多?
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2022-12-05
没有明确加息时间的通胀环境容易形成牛市,有明确加息预期的通胀环境则是熊市。没有明确降息预期的通缩环境是熊市,有明确降息预期的通缩环境是牛市。
谁能想到!!越南跌成狗了,今年最强的股市竟然是……
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2022-10-06
$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$
不要虚,今天还得上来
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2020-05-07
$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$
做空的只会越来越多
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2019-10-11
$天然气主连(NGmain)$
今天贸易谈判厚开始涨势
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2022-08-26
$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$
今晚放空纳指,吃肉在即
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2022-10-18
$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$
现在高点直接做空
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2022-10-05
$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$
脑子是个好东西,昨天高点喊着追高,现在有赶着杀低。我说这一波反弹趋势未变
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
02-07
$NQ100指数主连 2403(NQmain)$
有没有做空的小伙伴
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2020-02-15
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
每周2%到4%涨幅
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2019-07-29
$FUT:天然气主连(NGmain)$ 今天没有继续跌是好事
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2019-06-14
$FUT:天然气主连(NGmain)$ 今天绝对会下来
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2022-08-31
$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$
ADP就业数据低于预期
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2022-08-09
$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$
今天涨的动吗?
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2022-07-15
$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$
今天开始如果还跌,我直接退出这个市场。
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2022-10-22
$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$
下周开始记录7000美金实盘操作及盈亏。
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2022-10-17
$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$
死猫跳,逢高做空
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2019-07-29
$FUT:天然气主连(NGmain)$ 坚持住,不要倒在黎明之前
没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
2022-11-11
$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$
拉高继续做空
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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2406(NQmain)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/283730433466656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3586232864329688","authorId":"3586232864329688","name":"lidha","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2456ffefd0e738d35618996951f0f69c","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3586232864329688","authorIdStr":"3586232864329688"},"content":"看你天天空 [喷血]","text":"看你天天空 [喷血]","html":"看你天天空 [喷血]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":283596721234040,"gmtCreate":1710276315329,"gmtModify":1710276316239,"author":{"id":"3451008041626229","authorId":"3451008041626229","name":"没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c968c28c6902568ed606452e3f4e6997","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451008041626229","authorIdStr":"3451008041626229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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有没有做空的小伙伴","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/271451083587712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3450061884314599","authorId":"3450061884314599","name":"五撇须","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b54c88afdc73085ffe810fdd03c5b90a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3450061884314599","authorIdStr":"3450061884314599"},"content":"市场钱太多了,不容易掉,已经连续两天掉下来又涨回去了,还在诱空","text":"市场钱太多了,不容易掉,已经连续两天掉下来又涨回去了,还在诱空","html":"市场钱太多了,不容易掉,已经连续两天掉下来又涨回去了,还在诱空"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":253796892483888,"gmtCreate":1702998503956,"gmtModify":1702998505019,"author":{"id":"3451008041626229","authorId":"3451008041626229","name":"没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c968c28c6902568ed606452e3f4e6997","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451008041626229","authorIdStr":"3451008041626229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2403(NQmain)$ </a>坐稳了,即将暴跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2403(NQmain)$ </a>坐稳了,即将暴跌","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2403(NQmain)$ 坐稳了,即将暴跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/253796892483888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3532334328381517","authorId":"3532334328381517","name":"小清水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becfda40ab0abdc71c99dfcb2a0dedb9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3532334328381517","authorIdStr":"3532334328381517"},"content":"看了你的历史发言,就是个无脑死空头,2022.11.11无脑看空你打脸不,现在看空也是瞎猜罢了","text":"看了你的历史发言,就是个无脑死空头,2022.11.11无脑看空你打脸不,现在看空也是瞎猜罢了","html":"看了你的历史发言,就是个无脑死空头,2022.11.11无脑看空你打脸不,现在看空也是瞎猜罢了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":197571698598128,"gmtCreate":1689265066192,"gmtModify":1689265067380,"author":{"id":"3451008041626229","authorId":"3451008041626229","name":"没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c968c28c6902568ed606452e3f4e6997","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451008041626229","authorIdStr":"3451008041626229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2309(NQmain)$ </a>严重看空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2309(NQmain)$ </a>严重看空","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2309(NQmain)$ 严重看空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197571698598128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623043811,"gmtCreate":1670941638033,"gmtModify":1670941638919,"author":{"id":"3451008041626229","authorId":"3451008041626229","name":"没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c968c28c6902568ed606452e3f4e6997","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451008041626229","authorIdStr":"3451008041626229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2303(NQmain)$ </a>今天应该是个高点吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2303(NQmain)$ </a>今天应该是个高点吧","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2303(NQmain)$ 今天应该是个高点吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623043811","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629999353,"gmtCreate":1670189660272,"gmtModify":1670189662385,"author":{"id":"3451008041626229","authorId":"3451008041626229","name":"没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c968c28c6902568ed606452e3f4e6997","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451008041626229","authorIdStr":"3451008041626229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"没有明确加息时间的通胀环境容易形成牛市,有明确加息预期的通胀环境则是熊市。没有明确降息预期的通缩环境是熊市,有明确降息预期的通缩环境是牛市。","listText":"没有明确加息时间的通胀环境容易形成牛市,有明确加息预期的通胀环境则是熊市。没有明确降息预期的通缩环境是熊市,有明确降息预期的通缩环境是牛市。","text":"没有明确加息时间的通胀环境容易形成牛市,有明确加息预期的通胀环境则是熊市。没有明确降息预期的通缩环境是熊市,有明确降息预期的通缩环境是牛市。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629999353","repostId":"2288944786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288944786","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670112729,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2288944786?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-04 08:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"谁能想到!!越南跌成狗了,今年最强的股市竟然是……","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288944786","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"去年一路高歌的越南股市,今年沦为全球表现最差。而另一个物价飞涨,老百姓吃不起肉的国家,却牛冠全球。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>去年一路高歌的越南股市,今年沦为全球表现最差。而另一个物价飞涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">老百姓</a>吃不起肉的国家,却牛冠全球。</blockquote><p>时间过得很快,我们已经进入了2022年的最后一个月,</p><p>指数猫盘点了一下今年迄今全球主要股指的涨跌幅,</p><p><b>表现最牛的竟然是土耳其股市,</b></p><p><b>而去年让人羡慕嫉妒恨的越南股市,今年表现垫底。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d209182e0d00c37fb223007437311e9\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>01土耳其这轮牛市是个什么“牛“?</b></p><p>以里拉计算,截至12月2日,土耳其基准伊斯坦布尔100指数暴涨171%,为1999年以来的最佳表现。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd2312fa34491e6680fc8137cc3afc08\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>虽然这里面有汇率贬值的成分:今年迄今,土耳其里拉兑美元贬值近40%;</p><p>但<b>即使按美元计价,该指数也累计上涨了95%。</b></p><p><b>土耳其,一个物价飞涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">老百姓</a>吃不起肉的国家,怎么它的股市表现这么牛?</b></p><p>其实,你可能不知道,<b>土耳其这轮牛市很大程度就是个“通胀牛”,或者说“货币贬值牛”。</b></p><p>今年以来,随着全球通胀整体走高,主要央行都在同步大幅加息以对抗通胀,全球股市也因此整体低迷。</p><p>土耳其通胀率虽然全球位列前茅,但就这样,这个奇葩国家偏偏不加息,</p><p>反而从8月份起连续四次降息,而且一降就是100-150基点,原来的基准利率是14%,<b>目前已降至9%。</b></p><p>而<b>10月该国通胀率已经高达85%。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4abecfbecb898fcf078ceb89f3bb0982\" tg-width=\"752\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>这意味着土耳其实际上是负利率</b>,现金在银行多放一年,就等于损失四分之三(8月份时,损失是三分之二),这样的利率,哪个土耳其人还会存银行呢?</p><p>要么赶紧花了捞点本,然后继续抢购物品,继续加剧通胀,继续摊薄财富;</p><p>要么就拿去投资。</p><p><b>在汇率急剧贬值的情况下,股市成为少数能为国内投资者提供财富守护的“避风港”之一。</b></p><p>根据土耳其中央证券登记处的统计,截至11月18日,土耳其国内散户投资者开设的股票交易账户数量新增了32%,达到310万个。</p><p><b>随着国内投资者不断推高股市,海外投资者的看空情绪也有所缓解。</b></p><p>土耳其最大的ETF——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMDI\">iShares</a>土耳其股市指数ETF的空头头寸,在10月份跌至1.4%,创2014年初以来的最低水平,今年3月这一看空比例高达20%。</p><p>目前土耳其央行已经宣布结束降息周期,土耳其股市会不会继续上涨呢?</p><p>有市场人士说,除非土耳其实际利率发生重大变化,否则其国内散户投资者对股市的兴趣可能依旧会高涨。</p><p>不过,<b>目前境内并没有可供投资土耳其市场的工具</b>,</p><p>其火热的市场对我们来说,就只能隔岸观“火”了,所以就纯当吃个瓜吧~</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae4ef8b74dc448e20126b217d57a871c\" tg-width=\"923\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>另外也可以看到,<b>涨幅前三的其余两个股指</b>——<b>委内瑞拉IBC和阿根廷MERV分别上涨148%和104%</b>——<b>也是有很大的货币贬值成分。</b></p><p>今年委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔兑美元贬值超过145%,基本抹平了股指的涨幅。</p><p>而<b>过去三个月,委内瑞拉年化通胀率达到惊人的359%。</b>虽然相比过去几年疯狂的高通胀水平要低得多,但仍比今年早些时候有显著上升。</p><p>2019年时,委内瑞拉通胀率曾高达300000%左右。</p><p>阿根廷今年以来也一直处在“风暴”之中,物价飞涨、货币急剧贬值。</p><p><b>8月份,阿根廷通胀率同比飙升78%,直逼土耳其,到10月已经飙至88%,超过了土耳其。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29701ea4760dcd37f7eedf8e6faa835a\" tg-width=\"754\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>阿根廷比索兑美元官方汇率今年迄今也跌超60%,黑市跌幅则更大。</b></p><p><b>022022年QDII,谁表现最好?</b></p><p><b>答案是印度。</b></p><p><b>今年迄今,境内能买到的投资境外市场的QDII中,跟踪印度孟买30指数的工银瑞信<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IFN\">印度基金</a>人民币</b>(164824.OF)<b>,今年迄今累计收益6.13%,是为数不多的两只收益为正的产品之一</b>,</p><p>另一只是华宝富时100A(008763.OF),累计收益2.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dac4d21f85476a77f642c899644e353\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>自2008年金融危机至今,印度股市已经走出14年“长牛”。</b></p><p>2008年,印度孟买SENSEX指数的最低点为7697.39点,如今这一指数已涨至62000点上方,涨幅达到7倍。</p><p>政府持续放水、GDP的快速发展,以及对外开放和外资流入,是推动印度股市“长牛”的重要<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">驱动力</a>。</p><p>牛气冲天的股市表现带来了十足的赚钱效应,引得印度散户跑步入场,化身“新股民”,并成为了印度牛市的重要支撑。</p><p><b>尽管今年稍早,美联储大幅加息引发了创纪录的海外资金外流,但印度本土的投资资金仍帮助缓冲了股市跌幅。</b></p><p><b>随后,随着海外投资者缓慢回归,印度股市自6月低点一路走强。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbef937dadf2fd575635e256b624de73\" tg-width=\"718\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>近期,<b>随着美国通胀数据降温、美联储发出放慢加息步伐的信号,市场风险情绪回归,海外投资者回归越发提振印度等亚洲市场。</b></p><p>数据显示,全球基金在11月已净买入30亿美元的印度股票。</p><p>外国投资者持有的多头股指期货合约数量已从9月的低点上升约6倍,达到12.7万张,而空头头寸下降76%至3.86万张,为今年4月以来的最低水平。</p><p>海外投资者回归的同时,印度国内投资者对印度股市的信心也仍然强劲。</p><p><b>印度Sensex30指数近几个交易日连续创下历史新高,自6月低点以来已经反弹22%,进入技术性牛市,今年迄今涨幅超过8%</b>,有望录得连续第七年上涨,为全球市值1万亿美元规模及以上的主要股指中表现最好。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edf59308c0d5f30d58df10761d88e660\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>03去年天弘越南市场A收益最高,今年收益最惨</b></p><p>与土耳其股市的逆袭相反,去年一路高歌的越南股市,今年沦为全球表现最差。</p><p>今年以来,越南VN30指数下跌了32.11%。其中,银行股和房地产股领跌。</p><p>值得注意的是,虽然2022年至今,俄罗斯MOEX指数跌幅最大,<b>但是如果算上汇率因素,越南VN30指数的跌幅更大一些。</b></p><p>今年迄今,卢布兑美元升值了17%,港元兑美元基本持平,越南盾兑美元贬值了近6.6%,韩元兑美元跌9%。以美元计算,俄罗斯MOEX、恒生科技、越南VN30、韩国KOSDDAQ跌幅分别为-29.3%、-34.9%、-39.6%、-36.9%。</p><p>去年,得益于疫情后全球货币大放水,欧美股指大多双位数上涨。<b>越南宽松的货币政策和强劲的经济增长,吸引了大量增量资金进入,推动越南股指不断上涨。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5baf86a3933329de8f3f6f8c0610fbfb\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>越南VN30指数从2020年3月的低点598.6一路飙升至去年11月份的历史新高1587,2021全年涨幅也超过了40%。</p><p>越南河内(HNX)指数2021年涨幅更是高达133.35%,稳居全球榜首。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ec8cbbce6348cd6811544a3773332e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>但是今年迄今,该基金已累计亏损28.94%,下挫幅度十分剧烈。</b></p><p>越南股市今年的重挫,与美联储激进加息导致大量资金从新兴市场撤离有关,也与房价飙升及随之而来的强监管措施有关。</p><p>今年1-6月期间,越南楼市疯涨,胡志明市和首都河内均价涨超20%,部分地区涨幅高达35%-74%,对此,<b>越南当局加快收紧信贷力度,同时掀起了一轮史上力度最大的监管风暴。</b></p><p>8月,越南副总理黎文成明确表态,将加强对房企债券销售的监督,以避免投机和价格操纵;9月,越南央行副行长陶明秀警告称,央行将加强对银行贷款的审查,特别是在房地产项目等风险领域。</p><p>10月9日,地产大亨张美兰被捕入狱,还一度引发了对与此案有关的越南西贡商业银行的挤兑,暴露出越南金融业的脆弱。</p><p>与此同时,由于通胀升温,货币遭受重挫,越南央行在9月和10月连续两次加息100个基点,也对股市形成利空。</p><p><<<图片加载中。。。>>></p><p><b>042021年QDII表现最好的国家是越南,2022年是印度,明年是哪里?</b></p><p>在今年最后一个月里,随着美国10月通胀超预期降温、美联储暗示放缓加息,全球资产有望迎来更大反弹。</p><p>在刚过去的11月,全球股市已经反弹了一波,其中亚洲股市大幅领跑。</p><p>MSCI亚太指数11月涨幅高达14%,刷新1998年以来最大的月度涨幅,多个亚太市场的基准股指都强劲上冲,越南股市最近也连续五个交易日上涨。相比之下,MSCI国际全球指数的涨幅不到6%。</p><p>有机构认为,在亚洲股市落后其他地区长达数月之后,其出色表现将持续至2023年。</p><p>不过可能“西边不亮东边亮”,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>策略师预计,亚太股市的龙头地位明年将从东南亚和印度转移到中国和韩国等市场。</b></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>预计MSCI中国指数将在明年上涨14%。</b></p><p>随着中国“防疫二十条”和“地产十六条”的出台,11月,港股主要股指上涨约20%,轻松超过亚洲其他地区和全球主要股市。</p><p>韩国股市外资净流入也连续第二个月超过20亿美元,11月韩国综合指数上涨6.7%。</p><p>相比之下,曾被投资者视为通胀对冲工具的印尼股市11月走势持平,且有可能出现自去年7月以来的首次月度外资净流入转为负值。</p><p><b>在主要股指创下历史新高后,投资者对印度股市的估值也更加谨慎。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>预计,印度股市在2023年的表现将相对落后。</b></p><p>投行杰弗瑞(Jefferies)持相似观点,该行增持港股、A股、中国台湾和韩国的股票,对印尼的评级为中性,对印度的评级为减持。</p><p>对于芯片股,$法国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601166\">兴业银行</a>(0J6Y.UK)$和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>均持谨慎回归的态度。</p><p>法国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601166\">兴业银行</a>策略师上周在一份报告中写道:<b>“股价通常会在半导体周期触底前两到三个季度触底。”“我们可能已经到了这一步。”</b></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谁能想到!!越南跌成狗了,今年最强的股市竟然是……</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谁能想到!!越南跌成狗了,今年最强的股市竟然是……\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-04 08:12 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676584><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>去年一路高歌的越南股市,今年沦为全球表现最差。而另一个物价飞涨,老百姓吃不起肉的国家,却牛冠全球。时间过得很快,我们已经进入了2022年的最后一个月,指数猫盘点了一下今年迄今全球主要股指的涨跌幅,表现最牛的竟然是土耳其股市,而去年让人羡慕嫉妒恨的越南股市,今年表现垫底。01土耳其这轮牛市是个什么“牛“?以里拉计算,截至12月2日,土耳其基准伊斯坦布尔100指数暴涨171%,为1999年以来的最佳...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676584\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/debd09e44b2116f5e65b666e461db95b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676584","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288944786","content_text":"去年一路高歌的越南股市,今年沦为全球表现最差。而另一个物价飞涨,老百姓吃不起肉的国家,却牛冠全球。时间过得很快,我们已经进入了2022年的最后一个月,指数猫盘点了一下今年迄今全球主要股指的涨跌幅,表现最牛的竟然是土耳其股市,而去年让人羡慕嫉妒恨的越南股市,今年表现垫底。01土耳其这轮牛市是个什么“牛“?以里拉计算,截至12月2日,土耳其基准伊斯坦布尔100指数暴涨171%,为1999年以来的最佳表现。虽然这里面有汇率贬值的成分:今年迄今,土耳其里拉兑美元贬值近40%;但即使按美元计价,该指数也累计上涨了95%。土耳其,一个物价飞涨,老百姓吃不起肉的国家,怎么它的股市表现这么牛?其实,你可能不知道,土耳其这轮牛市很大程度就是个“通胀牛”,或者说“货币贬值牛”。今年以来,随着全球通胀整体走高,主要央行都在同步大幅加息以对抗通胀,全球股市也因此整体低迷。土耳其通胀率虽然全球位列前茅,但就这样,这个奇葩国家偏偏不加息,反而从8月份起连续四次降息,而且一降就是100-150基点,原来的基准利率是14%,目前已降至9%。而10月该国通胀率已经高达85%。这意味着土耳其实际上是负利率,现金在银行多放一年,就等于损失四分之三(8月份时,损失是三分之二),这样的利率,哪个土耳其人还会存银行呢?要么赶紧花了捞点本,然后继续抢购物品,继续加剧通胀,继续摊薄财富;要么就拿去投资。在汇率急剧贬值的情况下,股市成为少数能为国内投资者提供财富守护的“避风港”之一。根据土耳其中央证券登记处的统计,截至11月18日,土耳其国内散户投资者开设的股票交易账户数量新增了32%,达到310万个。随着国内投资者不断推高股市,海外投资者的看空情绪也有所缓解。土耳其最大的ETF——iShares土耳其股市指数ETF的空头头寸,在10月份跌至1.4%,创2014年初以来的最低水平,今年3月这一看空比例高达20%。目前土耳其央行已经宣布结束降息周期,土耳其股市会不会继续上涨呢?有市场人士说,除非土耳其实际利率发生重大变化,否则其国内散户投资者对股市的兴趣可能依旧会高涨。不过,目前境内并没有可供投资土耳其市场的工具,其火热的市场对我们来说,就只能隔岸观“火”了,所以就纯当吃个瓜吧~另外也可以看到,涨幅前三的其余两个股指——委内瑞拉IBC和阿根廷MERV分别上涨148%和104%——也是有很大的货币贬值成分。今年委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔兑美元贬值超过145%,基本抹平了股指的涨幅。而过去三个月,委内瑞拉年化通胀率达到惊人的359%。虽然相比过去几年疯狂的高通胀水平要低得多,但仍比今年早些时候有显著上升。2019年时,委内瑞拉通胀率曾高达300000%左右。阿根廷今年以来也一直处在“风暴”之中,物价飞涨、货币急剧贬值。8月份,阿根廷通胀率同比飙升78%,直逼土耳其,到10月已经飙至88%,超过了土耳其。阿根廷比索兑美元官方汇率今年迄今也跌超60%,黑市跌幅则更大。022022年QDII,谁表现最好?答案是印度。今年迄今,境内能买到的投资境外市场的QDII中,跟踪印度孟买30指数的工银瑞信印度基金人民币(164824.OF),今年迄今累计收益6.13%,是为数不多的两只收益为正的产品之一,另一只是华宝富时100A(008763.OF),累计收益2.2%。自2008年金融危机至今,印度股市已经走出14年“长牛”。2008年,印度孟买SENSEX指数的最低点为7697.39点,如今这一指数已涨至62000点上方,涨幅达到7倍。政府持续放水、GDP的快速发展,以及对外开放和外资流入,是推动印度股市“长牛”的重要驱动力。牛气冲天的股市表现带来了十足的赚钱效应,引得印度散户跑步入场,化身“新股民”,并成为了印度牛市的重要支撑。尽管今年稍早,美联储大幅加息引发了创纪录的海外资金外流,但印度本土的投资资金仍帮助缓冲了股市跌幅。随后,随着海外投资者缓慢回归,印度股市自6月低点一路走强。近期,随着美国通胀数据降温、美联储发出放慢加息步伐的信号,市场风险情绪回归,海外投资者回归越发提振印度等亚洲市场。数据显示,全球基金在11月已净买入30亿美元的印度股票。外国投资者持有的多头股指期货合约数量已从9月的低点上升约6倍,达到12.7万张,而空头头寸下降76%至3.86万张,为今年4月以来的最低水平。海外投资者回归的同时,印度国内投资者对印度股市的信心也仍然强劲。印度Sensex30指数近几个交易日连续创下历史新高,自6月低点以来已经反弹22%,进入技术性牛市,今年迄今涨幅超过8%,有望录得连续第七年上涨,为全球市值1万亿美元规模及以上的主要股指中表现最好。03去年天弘越南市场A收益最高,今年收益最惨与土耳其股市的逆袭相反,去年一路高歌的越南股市,今年沦为全球表现最差。今年以来,越南VN30指数下跌了32.11%。其中,银行股和房地产股领跌。值得注意的是,虽然2022年至今,俄罗斯MOEX指数跌幅最大,但是如果算上汇率因素,越南VN30指数的跌幅更大一些。今年迄今,卢布兑美元升值了17%,港元兑美元基本持平,越南盾兑美元贬值了近6.6%,韩元兑美元跌9%。以美元计算,俄罗斯MOEX、恒生科技、越南VN30、韩国KOSDDAQ跌幅分别为-29.3%、-34.9%、-39.6%、-36.9%。去年,得益于疫情后全球货币大放水,欧美股指大多双位数上涨。越南宽松的货币政策和强劲的经济增长,吸引了大量增量资金进入,推动越南股指不断上涨。越南VN30指数从2020年3月的低点598.6一路飙升至去年11月份的历史新高1587,2021全年涨幅也超过了40%。越南河内(HNX)指数2021年涨幅更是高达133.35%,稳居全球榜首。但是今年迄今,该基金已累计亏损28.94%,下挫幅度十分剧烈。越南股市今年的重挫,与美联储激进加息导致大量资金从新兴市场撤离有关,也与房价飙升及随之而来的强监管措施有关。今年1-6月期间,越南楼市疯涨,胡志明市和首都河内均价涨超20%,部分地区涨幅高达35%-74%,对此,越南当局加快收紧信贷力度,同时掀起了一轮史上力度最大的监管风暴。8月,越南副总理黎文成明确表态,将加强对房企债券销售的监督,以避免投机和价格操纵;9月,越南央行副行长陶明秀警告称,央行将加强对银行贷款的审查,特别是在房地产项目等风险领域。10月9日,地产大亨张美兰被捕入狱,还一度引发了对与此案有关的越南西贡商业银行的挤兑,暴露出越南金融业的脆弱。与此同时,由于通胀升温,货币遭受重挫,越南央行在9月和10月连续两次加息100个基点,也对股市形成利空。<<<图片加载中。。。>>>042021年QDII表现最好的国家是越南,2022年是印度,明年是哪里?在今年最后一个月里,随着美国10月通胀超预期降温、美联储暗示放缓加息,全球资产有望迎来更大反弹。在刚过去的11月,全球股市已经反弹了一波,其中亚洲股市大幅领跑。MSCI亚太指数11月涨幅高达14%,刷新1998年以来最大的月度涨幅,多个亚太市场的基准股指都强劲上冲,越南股市最近也连续五个交易日上涨。相比之下,MSCI国际全球指数的涨幅不到6%。有机构认为,在亚洲股市落后其他地区长达数月之后,其出色表现将持续至2023年。不过可能“西边不亮东边亮”,高盛策略师预计,亚太股市的龙头地位明年将从东南亚和印度转移到中国和韩国等市场。摩根士丹利预计MSCI中国指数将在明年上涨14%。随着中国“防疫二十条”和“地产十六条”的出台,11月,港股主要股指上涨约20%,轻松超过亚洲其他地区和全球主要股市。韩国股市外资净流入也连续第二个月超过20亿美元,11月韩国综合指数上涨6.7%。相比之下,曾被投资者视为通胀对冲工具的印尼股市11月走势持平,且有可能出现自去年7月以来的首次月度外资净流入转为负值。在主要股指创下历史新高后,投资者对印度股市的估值也更加谨慎。高盛预计,印度股市在2023年的表现将相对落后。投行杰弗瑞(Jefferies)持相似观点,该行增持港股、A股、中国台湾和韩国的股票,对印尼的评级为中性,对印度的评级为减持。对于芯片股,$法国兴业银行(0J6Y.UK)$和摩根士丹利均持谨慎回归的态度。法国兴业银行策略师上周在一份报告中写道:“股价通常会在半导体周期触底前两到三个季度触底。”“我们可能已经到了这一步。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":620631986,"gmtCreate":1669710715945,"gmtModify":1669710717666,"author":{"id":"3451008041626229","authorId":"3451008041626229","name":"没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c968c28c6902568ed606452e3f4e6997","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451008041626229","authorIdStr":"3451008041626229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"基本上要跌回去","listText":"基本上要跌回去","text":"基本上要跌回去","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/620631986","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667856542,"gmtCreate":1668704801786,"gmtModify":1668704803557,"author":{"id":"3451008041626229","authorId":"3451008041626229","name":"没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c968c28c6902568ed606452e3f4e6997","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451008041626229","authorIdStr":"3451008041626229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"阿里没前途","listText":"阿里没前途","text":"阿里没前途","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667856542","repostId":"1173086051","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173086051","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668683905,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173086051?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-17 19:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里巴巴第二财季营收2071.8亿元,淘宝、天猫GMV同比下降","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173086051","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2023财年第二财季净亏损205.61亿元,市场预期净盈利196.92亿元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>11月17日周四,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>开盘跌约3%,后快速拉升并持续走高,截至发稿涨超5%。阿里2023财年第二财季营收虽不及预期,但Non-GAAP净利润同比增长19%至338.2亿元,且公司宣布将回购计划增加150亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd4b706db8cc447d88a851b35a09c41\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>今日,阿里巴巴发布2023财年第二财季业绩报告(<b>注:阿里巴巴财年与自然年不同步,从每年的4月1日开始,至第二年的3月31日结束</b>)。</p><p>2023财年第二财季营收2071.8亿元,市场预期2086.16亿元,去年同期2006.9亿元。</p><p>2023财年第二财季净亏损224.67亿元,去年同期净盈利33.77亿元。</p><p>2023财年第二财季归属于普通股股东的净亏损为205.61亿元,市场预期净盈利196.92亿元,去年同期净盈利53.67亿元。</p><p>阿里巴巴:<b>第二财季亏损主要是由于我们在上市公司股权投资的市场价格下降,导致净亏损增加,以及应占权益法被投资方的业绩减少,部分被调整后EBITA的增加所抵消。</b></p><p>不按美国通用会计准则(non-GAAP),净利润为338.20亿元(约合47.54亿美元),与上年同期的285.24亿元相比增长19%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3935dd92f8ee8886da2ec58e77889a\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>业务发展</b></p><p>第二财季云业务收入207.6亿元,市场预估211.1亿元。</p><p>第二财季来自中国零售商业的收入为1312.22亿元,相较2021年同期下降1%。第二财季国际零售商业收入为107.38亿元,相较2021年同期增长3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a637453224428e5ab6542b77bb3e670\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>第二财季直营及其他收入同比增长6%至647.25亿元,主要受惠于盒马收入的强劲增长,其线上订单收入占比保持在超过65%的高水平。</p><p>第二财季本地生活服务整体订单量同比增长5%,主要由于高德录得强劲的订单增长。受到饿了么业务运营改善所带动下,分部亏损持续收窄。</p><p>截至2022年9月30日止三个月,来自创新业务及其他分部的收入为人民币4.09亿元(5700万美元),相较2021年同期的人民币7.38亿元下滑45%。</p><p>于2022年9月30日止季度,抵销跨分部交易前,菜鸟本季度营业收入同比增长26%至182.82亿元,外部收入占比进一步提升至73%。通过持续建设高质量的产业互联网,做全球化的长期主义者,菜鸟已经成为物流和供应链市场中重要的优质服务提供方,获得了更广泛的市场认可。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718f80cadea565e8aff202884a3e9ddc\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>截至2022年9月30日止三个月,来自数字媒体及娱乐分部的收入为人民币83.92亿元(11.79亿美元),相较2021年同期的人民币80.81亿元增长4%,主要原因是阿里巴巴影业和优酷的收入增加,这部分被网络游戏业务收入的减少所抵消。</p><p>截至2022年9月30日止季度,<b>淘宝和天猫的线上实物商品GMV(剔除未支付订单)同比录得低单位数下降,主要由于消费需求减少、新冠肺炎疫情反复和竞争持续所影响。</b></p><p>截至2022年9月30日止的12个月,在淘宝和天猫消费超过人民币10,000元的消费者数维持在约1.24亿,并有98%的留存率。</p><p>淘特一直帮助越来越多工厂在淘宝和淘特上直接向消费者(M2C)销售,在9月份季度,M2C商品产生的支付GMV同比增长超过60%。本季度,淘特通过优化用户获取的投入,使其亏损同比大幅收窄。</p><p><b>股份回购</b></p><p>阿里巴巴集团宣布,<b>已获董事会授权将现有的股份回购计划另外增加150亿美元,并将有效期延长至2025年3月底前。</b>于2022年9月30日止季度,根据股份回购计划,阿里巴巴以约21亿美元回购了约2430万股美国存托股(相当于约1.947亿股普通股)。截至2022年11月16日,在现行250亿美元回购计划下,阿里巴巴已回购了约180亿美元的股份。</p><p><b>不会按原计划在2022年底完成香港主要上市</b></p><p>阿里巴巴在正式完成转换香港主要上市之前,还需要制定并向股东提交审批一份新的员工持股计划。考虑到上述情况,将不会按原计划在2022年底完成主要上市。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/678359cd735ca67b57a6d9bea126ffba\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里巴巴第二财季营收2071.8亿元,淘宝、天猫GMV同比下降\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-17 19:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>11月17日周四,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>开盘跌约3%,后快速拉升并持续走高,截至发稿涨超5%。阿里2023财年第二财季营收虽不及预期,但Non-GAAP净利润同比增长19%至338.2亿元,且公司宣布将回购计划增加150亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd4b706db8cc447d88a851b35a09c41\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>今日,阿里巴巴发布2023财年第二财季业绩报告(<b>注:阿里巴巴财年与自然年不同步,从每年的4月1日开始,至第二年的3月31日结束</b>)。</p><p>2023财年第二财季营收2071.8亿元,市场预期2086.16亿元,去年同期2006.9亿元。</p><p>2023财年第二财季净亏损224.67亿元,去年同期净盈利33.77亿元。</p><p>2023财年第二财季归属于普通股股东的净亏损为205.61亿元,市场预期净盈利196.92亿元,去年同期净盈利53.67亿元。</p><p>阿里巴巴:<b>第二财季亏损主要是由于我们在上市公司股权投资的市场价格下降,导致净亏损增加,以及应占权益法被投资方的业绩减少,部分被调整后EBITA的增加所抵消。</b></p><p>不按美国通用会计准则(non-GAAP),净利润为338.20亿元(约合47.54亿美元),与上年同期的285.24亿元相比增长19%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3935dd92f8ee8886da2ec58e77889a\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>业务发展</b></p><p>第二财季云业务收入207.6亿元,市场预估211.1亿元。</p><p>第二财季来自中国零售商业的收入为1312.22亿元,相较2021年同期下降1%。第二财季国际零售商业收入为107.38亿元,相较2021年同期增长3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a637453224428e5ab6542b77bb3e670\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>第二财季直营及其他收入同比增长6%至647.25亿元,主要受惠于盒马收入的强劲增长,其线上订单收入占比保持在超过65%的高水平。</p><p>第二财季本地生活服务整体订单量同比增长5%,主要由于高德录得强劲的订单增长。受到饿了么业务运营改善所带动下,分部亏损持续收窄。</p><p>截至2022年9月30日止三个月,来自创新业务及其他分部的收入为人民币4.09亿元(5700万美元),相较2021年同期的人民币7.38亿元下滑45%。</p><p>于2022年9月30日止季度,抵销跨分部交易前,菜鸟本季度营业收入同比增长26%至182.82亿元,外部收入占比进一步提升至73%。通过持续建设高质量的产业互联网,做全球化的长期主义者,菜鸟已经成为物流和供应链市场中重要的优质服务提供方,获得了更广泛的市场认可。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718f80cadea565e8aff202884a3e9ddc\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>截至2022年9月30日止三个月,来自数字媒体及娱乐分部的收入为人民币83.92亿元(11.79亿美元),相较2021年同期的人民币80.81亿元增长4%,主要原因是阿里巴巴影业和优酷的收入增加,这部分被网络游戏业务收入的减少所抵消。</p><p>截至2022年9月30日止季度,<b>淘宝和天猫的线上实物商品GMV(剔除未支付订单)同比录得低单位数下降,主要由于消费需求减少、新冠肺炎疫情反复和竞争持续所影响。</b></p><p>截至2022年9月30日止的12个月,在淘宝和天猫消费超过人民币10,000元的消费者数维持在约1.24亿,并有98%的留存率。</p><p>淘特一直帮助越来越多工厂在淘宝和淘特上直接向消费者(M2C)销售,在9月份季度,M2C商品产生的支付GMV同比增长超过60%。本季度,淘特通过优化用户获取的投入,使其亏损同比大幅收窄。</p><p><b>股份回购</b></p><p>阿里巴巴集团宣布,<b>已获董事会授权将现有的股份回购计划另外增加150亿美元,并将有效期延长至2025年3月底前。</b>于2022年9月30日止季度,根据股份回购计划,阿里巴巴以约21亿美元回购了约2430万股美国存托股(相当于约1.947亿股普通股)。截至2022年11月16日,在现行250亿美元回购计划下,阿里巴巴已回购了约180亿美元的股份。</p><p><b>不会按原计划在2022年底完成香港主要上市</b></p><p>阿里巴巴在正式完成转换香港主要上市之前,还需要制定并向股东提交审批一份新的员工持股计划。考虑到上述情况,将不会按原计划在2022年底完成主要上市。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/678359cd735ca67b57a6d9bea126ffba\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173086051","content_text":"11月17日周四,阿里巴巴开盘跌约3%,后快速拉升并持续走高,截至发稿涨超5%。阿里2023财年第二财季营收虽不及预期,但Non-GAAP净利润同比增长19%至338.2亿元,且公司宣布将回购计划增加150亿美元。今日,阿里巴巴发布2023财年第二财季业绩报告(注:阿里巴巴财年与自然年不同步,从每年的4月1日开始,至第二年的3月31日结束)。2023财年第二财季营收2071.8亿元,市场预期2086.16亿元,去年同期2006.9亿元。2023财年第二财季净亏损224.67亿元,去年同期净盈利33.77亿元。2023财年第二财季归属于普通股股东的净亏损为205.61亿元,市场预期净盈利196.92亿元,去年同期净盈利53.67亿元。阿里巴巴:第二财季亏损主要是由于我们在上市公司股权投资的市场价格下降,导致净亏损增加,以及应占权益法被投资方的业绩减少,部分被调整后EBITA的增加所抵消。不按美国通用会计准则(non-GAAP),净利润为338.20亿元(约合47.54亿美元),与上年同期的285.24亿元相比增长19%。业务发展第二财季云业务收入207.6亿元,市场预估211.1亿元。第二财季来自中国零售商业的收入为1312.22亿元,相较2021年同期下降1%。第二财季国际零售商业收入为107.38亿元,相较2021年同期增长3%。第二财季直营及其他收入同比增长6%至647.25亿元,主要受惠于盒马收入的强劲增长,其线上订单收入占比保持在超过65%的高水平。第二财季本地生活服务整体订单量同比增长5%,主要由于高德录得强劲的订单增长。受到饿了么业务运营改善所带动下,分部亏损持续收窄。截至2022年9月30日止三个月,来自创新业务及其他分部的收入为人民币4.09亿元(5700万美元),相较2021年同期的人民币7.38亿元下滑45%。于2022年9月30日止季度,抵销跨分部交易前,菜鸟本季度营业收入同比增长26%至182.82亿元,外部收入占比进一步提升至73%。通过持续建设高质量的产业互联网,做全球化的长期主义者,菜鸟已经成为物流和供应链市场中重要的优质服务提供方,获得了更广泛的市场认可。截至2022年9月30日止三个月,来自数字媒体及娱乐分部的收入为人民币83.92亿元(11.79亿美元),相较2021年同期的人民币80.81亿元增长4%,主要原因是阿里巴巴影业和优酷的收入增加,这部分被网络游戏业务收入的减少所抵消。截至2022年9月30日止季度,淘宝和天猫的线上实物商品GMV(剔除未支付订单)同比录得低单位数下降,主要由于消费需求减少、新冠肺炎疫情反复和竞争持续所影响。截至2022年9月30日止的12个月,在淘宝和天猫消费超过人民币10,000元的消费者数维持在约1.24亿,并有98%的留存率。淘特一直帮助越来越多工厂在淘宝和淘特上直接向消费者(M2C)销售,在9月份季度,M2C商品产生的支付GMV同比增长超过60%。本季度,淘特通过优化用户获取的投入,使其亏损同比大幅收窄。股份回购阿里巴巴集团宣布,已获董事会授权将现有的股份回购计划另外增加150亿美元,并将有效期延长至2025年3月底前。于2022年9月30日止季度,根据股份回购计划,阿里巴巴以约21亿美元回购了约2430万股美国存托股(相当于约1.947亿股普通股)。截至2022年11月16日,在现行250亿美元回购计划下,阿里巴巴已回购了约180亿美元的股份。不会按原计划在2022年底完成香港主要上市阿里巴巴在正式完成转换香港主要上市之前,还需要制定并向股东提交审批一份新的员工持股计划。考虑到上述情况,将不会按原计划在2022年底完成主要上市。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667858587,"gmtCreate":1668704171150,"gmtModify":1668704172000,"author":{"id":"3451008041626229","authorId":"3451008041626229","name":"没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c968c28c6902568ed606452e3f4e6997","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451008041626229","authorIdStr":"3451008041626229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2309(NQmain)$ </a>严重看空","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2309(NQmain)$ 严重看空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197571698598128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":936371666,"gmtCreate":1572003208855,"gmtModify":1704723444501,"author":{"id":"3451008041626229","authorId":"3451008041626229","name":"没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c968c28c6902568ed606452e3f4e6997","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451008041626229","authorIdStr":"3451008041626229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a> 黄金为什么这两天涨这么多?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a> 黄金为什么这两天涨这么多?","text":"$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 黄金为什么这两天涨这么多?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/936371666","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3533783482043157","authorId":"3533783482043157","name":"炒股敢死队","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3533783482043157","authorIdStr":"3533783482043157"},"content":"美联储降息预期","text":"美联储降息预期","html":"美联储降息预期"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629999353,"gmtCreate":1670189660272,"gmtModify":1670189662385,"author":{"id":"3451008041626229","authorId":"3451008041626229","name":"没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c968c28c6902568ed606452e3f4e6997","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451008041626229","authorIdStr":"3451008041626229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"没有明确加息时间的通胀环境容易形成牛市,有明确加息预期的通胀环境则是熊市。没有明确降息预期的通缩环境是熊市,有明确降息预期的通缩环境是牛市。","listText":"没有明确加息时间的通胀环境容易形成牛市,有明确加息预期的通胀环境则是熊市。没有明确降息预期的通缩环境是熊市,有明确降息预期的通缩环境是牛市。","text":"没有明确加息时间的通胀环境容易形成牛市,有明确加息预期的通胀环境则是熊市。没有明确降息预期的通缩环境是熊市,有明确降息预期的通缩环境是牛市。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629999353","repostId":"2288944786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288944786","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670112729,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2288944786?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-04 08:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"谁能想到!!越南跌成狗了,今年最强的股市竟然是……","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288944786","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"去年一路高歌的越南股市,今年沦为全球表现最差。而另一个物价飞涨,老百姓吃不起肉的国家,却牛冠全球。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>去年一路高歌的越南股市,今年沦为全球表现最差。而另一个物价飞涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">老百姓</a>吃不起肉的国家,却牛冠全球。</blockquote><p>时间过得很快,我们已经进入了2022年的最后一个月,</p><p>指数猫盘点了一下今年迄今全球主要股指的涨跌幅,</p><p><b>表现最牛的竟然是土耳其股市,</b></p><p><b>而去年让人羡慕嫉妒恨的越南股市,今年表现垫底。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d209182e0d00c37fb223007437311e9\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>01土耳其这轮牛市是个什么“牛“?</b></p><p>以里拉计算,截至12月2日,土耳其基准伊斯坦布尔100指数暴涨171%,为1999年以来的最佳表现。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd2312fa34491e6680fc8137cc3afc08\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>虽然这里面有汇率贬值的成分:今年迄今,土耳其里拉兑美元贬值近40%;</p><p>但<b>即使按美元计价,该指数也累计上涨了95%。</b></p><p><b>土耳其,一个物价飞涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">老百姓</a>吃不起肉的国家,怎么它的股市表现这么牛?</b></p><p>其实,你可能不知道,<b>土耳其这轮牛市很大程度就是个“通胀牛”,或者说“货币贬值牛”。</b></p><p>今年以来,随着全球通胀整体走高,主要央行都在同步大幅加息以对抗通胀,全球股市也因此整体低迷。</p><p>土耳其通胀率虽然全球位列前茅,但就这样,这个奇葩国家偏偏不加息,</p><p>反而从8月份起连续四次降息,而且一降就是100-150基点,原来的基准利率是14%,<b>目前已降至9%。</b></p><p>而<b>10月该国通胀率已经高达85%。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4abecfbecb898fcf078ceb89f3bb0982\" tg-width=\"752\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>这意味着土耳其实际上是负利率</b>,现金在银行多放一年,就等于损失四分之三(8月份时,损失是三分之二),这样的利率,哪个土耳其人还会存银行呢?</p><p>要么赶紧花了捞点本,然后继续抢购物品,继续加剧通胀,继续摊薄财富;</p><p>要么就拿去投资。</p><p><b>在汇率急剧贬值的情况下,股市成为少数能为国内投资者提供财富守护的“避风港”之一。</b></p><p>根据土耳其中央证券登记处的统计,截至11月18日,土耳其国内散户投资者开设的股票交易账户数量新增了32%,达到310万个。</p><p><b>随着国内投资者不断推高股市,海外投资者的看空情绪也有所缓解。</b></p><p>土耳其最大的ETF——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMDI\">iShares</a>土耳其股市指数ETF的空头头寸,在10月份跌至1.4%,创2014年初以来的最低水平,今年3月这一看空比例高达20%。</p><p>目前土耳其央行已经宣布结束降息周期,土耳其股市会不会继续上涨呢?</p><p>有市场人士说,除非土耳其实际利率发生重大变化,否则其国内散户投资者对股市的兴趣可能依旧会高涨。</p><p>不过,<b>目前境内并没有可供投资土耳其市场的工具</b>,</p><p>其火热的市场对我们来说,就只能隔岸观“火”了,所以就纯当吃个瓜吧~</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae4ef8b74dc448e20126b217d57a871c\" tg-width=\"923\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>另外也可以看到,<b>涨幅前三的其余两个股指</b>——<b>委内瑞拉IBC和阿根廷MERV分别上涨148%和104%</b>——<b>也是有很大的货币贬值成分。</b></p><p>今年委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔兑美元贬值超过145%,基本抹平了股指的涨幅。</p><p>而<b>过去三个月,委内瑞拉年化通胀率达到惊人的359%。</b>虽然相比过去几年疯狂的高通胀水平要低得多,但仍比今年早些时候有显著上升。</p><p>2019年时,委内瑞拉通胀率曾高达300000%左右。</p><p>阿根廷今年以来也一直处在“风暴”之中,物价飞涨、货币急剧贬值。</p><p><b>8月份,阿根廷通胀率同比飙升78%,直逼土耳其,到10月已经飙至88%,超过了土耳其。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29701ea4760dcd37f7eedf8e6faa835a\" tg-width=\"754\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>阿根廷比索兑美元官方汇率今年迄今也跌超60%,黑市跌幅则更大。</b></p><p><b>022022年QDII,谁表现最好?</b></p><p><b>答案是印度。</b></p><p><b>今年迄今,境内能买到的投资境外市场的QDII中,跟踪印度孟买30指数的工银瑞信<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IFN\">印度基金</a>人民币</b>(164824.OF)<b>,今年迄今累计收益6.13%,是为数不多的两只收益为正的产品之一</b>,</p><p>另一只是华宝富时100A(008763.OF),累计收益2.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dac4d21f85476a77f642c899644e353\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>自2008年金融危机至今,印度股市已经走出14年“长牛”。</b></p><p>2008年,印度孟买SENSEX指数的最低点为7697.39点,如今这一指数已涨至62000点上方,涨幅达到7倍。</p><p>政府持续放水、GDP的快速发展,以及对外开放和外资流入,是推动印度股市“长牛”的重要<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">驱动力</a>。</p><p>牛气冲天的股市表现带来了十足的赚钱效应,引得印度散户跑步入场,化身“新股民”,并成为了印度牛市的重要支撑。</p><p><b>尽管今年稍早,美联储大幅加息引发了创纪录的海外资金外流,但印度本土的投资资金仍帮助缓冲了股市跌幅。</b></p><p><b>随后,随着海外投资者缓慢回归,印度股市自6月低点一路走强。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbef937dadf2fd575635e256b624de73\" tg-width=\"718\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>近期,<b>随着美国通胀数据降温、美联储发出放慢加息步伐的信号,市场风险情绪回归,海外投资者回归越发提振印度等亚洲市场。</b></p><p>数据显示,全球基金在11月已净买入30亿美元的印度股票。</p><p>外国投资者持有的多头股指期货合约数量已从9月的低点上升约6倍,达到12.7万张,而空头头寸下降76%至3.86万张,为今年4月以来的最低水平。</p><p>海外投资者回归的同时,印度国内投资者对印度股市的信心也仍然强劲。</p><p><b>印度Sensex30指数近几个交易日连续创下历史新高,自6月低点以来已经反弹22%,进入技术性牛市,今年迄今涨幅超过8%</b>,有望录得连续第七年上涨,为全球市值1万亿美元规模及以上的主要股指中表现最好。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edf59308c0d5f30d58df10761d88e660\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>03去年天弘越南市场A收益最高,今年收益最惨</b></p><p>与土耳其股市的逆袭相反,去年一路高歌的越南股市,今年沦为全球表现最差。</p><p>今年以来,越南VN30指数下跌了32.11%。其中,银行股和房地产股领跌。</p><p>值得注意的是,虽然2022年至今,俄罗斯MOEX指数跌幅最大,<b>但是如果算上汇率因素,越南VN30指数的跌幅更大一些。</b></p><p>今年迄今,卢布兑美元升值了17%,港元兑美元基本持平,越南盾兑美元贬值了近6.6%,韩元兑美元跌9%。以美元计算,俄罗斯MOEX、恒生科技、越南VN30、韩国KOSDDAQ跌幅分别为-29.3%、-34.9%、-39.6%、-36.9%。</p><p>去年,得益于疫情后全球货币大放水,欧美股指大多双位数上涨。<b>越南宽松的货币政策和强劲的经济增长,吸引了大量增量资金进入,推动越南股指不断上涨。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5baf86a3933329de8f3f6f8c0610fbfb\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>越南VN30指数从2020年3月的低点598.6一路飙升至去年11月份的历史新高1587,2021全年涨幅也超过了40%。</p><p>越南河内(HNX)指数2021年涨幅更是高达133.35%,稳居全球榜首。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ec8cbbce6348cd6811544a3773332e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>但是今年迄今,该基金已累计亏损28.94%,下挫幅度十分剧烈。</b></p><p>越南股市今年的重挫,与美联储激进加息导致大量资金从新兴市场撤离有关,也与房价飙升及随之而来的强监管措施有关。</p><p>今年1-6月期间,越南楼市疯涨,胡志明市和首都河内均价涨超20%,部分地区涨幅高达35%-74%,对此,<b>越南当局加快收紧信贷力度,同时掀起了一轮史上力度最大的监管风暴。</b></p><p>8月,越南副总理黎文成明确表态,将加强对房企债券销售的监督,以避免投机和价格操纵;9月,越南央行副行长陶明秀警告称,央行将加强对银行贷款的审查,特别是在房地产项目等风险领域。</p><p>10月9日,地产大亨张美兰被捕入狱,还一度引发了对与此案有关的越南西贡商业银行的挤兑,暴露出越南金融业的脆弱。</p><p>与此同时,由于通胀升温,货币遭受重挫,越南央行在9月和10月连续两次加息100个基点,也对股市形成利空。</p><p><<<图片加载中。。。>>></p><p><b>042021年QDII表现最好的国家是越南,2022年是印度,明年是哪里?</b></p><p>在今年最后一个月里,随着美国10月通胀超预期降温、美联储暗示放缓加息,全球资产有望迎来更大反弹。</p><p>在刚过去的11月,全球股市已经反弹了一波,其中亚洲股市大幅领跑。</p><p>MSCI亚太指数11月涨幅高达14%,刷新1998年以来最大的月度涨幅,多个亚太市场的基准股指都强劲上冲,越南股市最近也连续五个交易日上涨。相比之下,MSCI国际全球指数的涨幅不到6%。</p><p>有机构认为,在亚洲股市落后其他地区长达数月之后,其出色表现将持续至2023年。</p><p>不过可能“西边不亮东边亮”,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>策略师预计,亚太股市的龙头地位明年将从东南亚和印度转移到中国和韩国等市场。</b></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>预计MSCI中国指数将在明年上涨14%。</b></p><p>随着中国“防疫二十条”和“地产十六条”的出台,11月,港股主要股指上涨约20%,轻松超过亚洲其他地区和全球主要股市。</p><p>韩国股市外资净流入也连续第二个月超过20亿美元,11月韩国综合指数上涨6.7%。</p><p>相比之下,曾被投资者视为通胀对冲工具的印尼股市11月走势持平,且有可能出现自去年7月以来的首次月度外资净流入转为负值。</p><p><b>在主要股指创下历史新高后,投资者对印度股市的估值也更加谨慎。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>预计,印度股市在2023年的表现将相对落后。</b></p><p>投行杰弗瑞(Jefferies)持相似观点,该行增持港股、A股、中国台湾和韩国的股票,对印尼的评级为中性,对印度的评级为减持。</p><p>对于芯片股,$法国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601166\">兴业银行</a>(0J6Y.UK)$和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>均持谨慎回归的态度。</p><p>法国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601166\">兴业银行</a>策略师上周在一份报告中写道:<b>“股价通常会在半导体周期触底前两到三个季度触底。”“我们可能已经到了这一步。”</b></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谁能想到!!越南跌成狗了,今年最强的股市竟然是……\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-04 08:12 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676584><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>去年一路高歌的越南股市,今年沦为全球表现最差。而另一个物价飞涨,老百姓吃不起肉的国家,却牛冠全球。时间过得很快,我们已经进入了2022年的最后一个月,指数猫盘点了一下今年迄今全球主要股指的涨跌幅,表现最牛的竟然是土耳其股市,而去年让人羡慕嫉妒恨的越南股市,今年表现垫底。01土耳其这轮牛市是个什么“牛“?以里拉计算,截至12月2日,土耳其基准伊斯坦布尔100指数暴涨171%,为1999年以来的最佳...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676584\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/debd09e44b2116f5e65b666e461db95b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676584","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288944786","content_text":"去年一路高歌的越南股市,今年沦为全球表现最差。而另一个物价飞涨,老百姓吃不起肉的国家,却牛冠全球。时间过得很快,我们已经进入了2022年的最后一个月,指数猫盘点了一下今年迄今全球主要股指的涨跌幅,表现最牛的竟然是土耳其股市,而去年让人羡慕嫉妒恨的越南股市,今年表现垫底。01土耳其这轮牛市是个什么“牛“?以里拉计算,截至12月2日,土耳其基准伊斯坦布尔100指数暴涨171%,为1999年以来的最佳表现。虽然这里面有汇率贬值的成分:今年迄今,土耳其里拉兑美元贬值近40%;但即使按美元计价,该指数也累计上涨了95%。土耳其,一个物价飞涨,老百姓吃不起肉的国家,怎么它的股市表现这么牛?其实,你可能不知道,土耳其这轮牛市很大程度就是个“通胀牛”,或者说“货币贬值牛”。今年以来,随着全球通胀整体走高,主要央行都在同步大幅加息以对抗通胀,全球股市也因此整体低迷。土耳其通胀率虽然全球位列前茅,但就这样,这个奇葩国家偏偏不加息,反而从8月份起连续四次降息,而且一降就是100-150基点,原来的基准利率是14%,目前已降至9%。而10月该国通胀率已经高达85%。这意味着土耳其实际上是负利率,现金在银行多放一年,就等于损失四分之三(8月份时,损失是三分之二),这样的利率,哪个土耳其人还会存银行呢?要么赶紧花了捞点本,然后继续抢购物品,继续加剧通胀,继续摊薄财富;要么就拿去投资。在汇率急剧贬值的情况下,股市成为少数能为国内投资者提供财富守护的“避风港”之一。根据土耳其中央证券登记处的统计,截至11月18日,土耳其国内散户投资者开设的股票交易账户数量新增了32%,达到310万个。随着国内投资者不断推高股市,海外投资者的看空情绪也有所缓解。土耳其最大的ETF——iShares土耳其股市指数ETF的空头头寸,在10月份跌至1.4%,创2014年初以来的最低水平,今年3月这一看空比例高达20%。目前土耳其央行已经宣布结束降息周期,土耳其股市会不会继续上涨呢?有市场人士说,除非土耳其实际利率发生重大变化,否则其国内散户投资者对股市的兴趣可能依旧会高涨。不过,目前境内并没有可供投资土耳其市场的工具,其火热的市场对我们来说,就只能隔岸观“火”了,所以就纯当吃个瓜吧~另外也可以看到,涨幅前三的其余两个股指——委内瑞拉IBC和阿根廷MERV分别上涨148%和104%——也是有很大的货币贬值成分。今年委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔兑美元贬值超过145%,基本抹平了股指的涨幅。而过去三个月,委内瑞拉年化通胀率达到惊人的359%。虽然相比过去几年疯狂的高通胀水平要低得多,但仍比今年早些时候有显著上升。2019年时,委内瑞拉通胀率曾高达300000%左右。阿根廷今年以来也一直处在“风暴”之中,物价飞涨、货币急剧贬值。8月份,阿根廷通胀率同比飙升78%,直逼土耳其,到10月已经飙至88%,超过了土耳其。阿根廷比索兑美元官方汇率今年迄今也跌超60%,黑市跌幅则更大。022022年QDII,谁表现最好?答案是印度。今年迄今,境内能买到的投资境外市场的QDII中,跟踪印度孟买30指数的工银瑞信印度基金人民币(164824.OF),今年迄今累计收益6.13%,是为数不多的两只收益为正的产品之一,另一只是华宝富时100A(008763.OF),累计收益2.2%。自2008年金融危机至今,印度股市已经走出14年“长牛”。2008年,印度孟买SENSEX指数的最低点为7697.39点,如今这一指数已涨至62000点上方,涨幅达到7倍。政府持续放水、GDP的快速发展,以及对外开放和外资流入,是推动印度股市“长牛”的重要驱动力。牛气冲天的股市表现带来了十足的赚钱效应,引得印度散户跑步入场,化身“新股民”,并成为了印度牛市的重要支撑。尽管今年稍早,美联储大幅加息引发了创纪录的海外资金外流,但印度本土的投资资金仍帮助缓冲了股市跌幅。随后,随着海外投资者缓慢回归,印度股市自6月低点一路走强。近期,随着美国通胀数据降温、美联储发出放慢加息步伐的信号,市场风险情绪回归,海外投资者回归越发提振印度等亚洲市场。数据显示,全球基金在11月已净买入30亿美元的印度股票。外国投资者持有的多头股指期货合约数量已从9月的低点上升约6倍,达到12.7万张,而空头头寸下降76%至3.86万张,为今年4月以来的最低水平。海外投资者回归的同时,印度国内投资者对印度股市的信心也仍然强劲。印度Sensex30指数近几个交易日连续创下历史新高,自6月低点以来已经反弹22%,进入技术性牛市,今年迄今涨幅超过8%,有望录得连续第七年上涨,为全球市值1万亿美元规模及以上的主要股指中表现最好。03去年天弘越南市场A收益最高,今年收益最惨与土耳其股市的逆袭相反,去年一路高歌的越南股市,今年沦为全球表现最差。今年以来,越南VN30指数下跌了32.11%。其中,银行股和房地产股领跌。值得注意的是,虽然2022年至今,俄罗斯MOEX指数跌幅最大,但是如果算上汇率因素,越南VN30指数的跌幅更大一些。今年迄今,卢布兑美元升值了17%,港元兑美元基本持平,越南盾兑美元贬值了近6.6%,韩元兑美元跌9%。以美元计算,俄罗斯MOEX、恒生科技、越南VN30、韩国KOSDDAQ跌幅分别为-29.3%、-34.9%、-39.6%、-36.9%。去年,得益于疫情后全球货币大放水,欧美股指大多双位数上涨。越南宽松的货币政策和强劲的经济增长,吸引了大量增量资金进入,推动越南股指不断上涨。越南VN30指数从2020年3月的低点598.6一路飙升至去年11月份的历史新高1587,2021全年涨幅也超过了40%。越南河内(HNX)指数2021年涨幅更是高达133.35%,稳居全球榜首。但是今年迄今,该基金已累计亏损28.94%,下挫幅度十分剧烈。越南股市今年的重挫,与美联储激进加息导致大量资金从新兴市场撤离有关,也与房价飙升及随之而来的强监管措施有关。今年1-6月期间,越南楼市疯涨,胡志明市和首都河内均价涨超20%,部分地区涨幅高达35%-74%,对此,越南当局加快收紧信贷力度,同时掀起了一轮史上力度最大的监管风暴。8月,越南副总理黎文成明确表态,将加强对房企债券销售的监督,以避免投机和价格操纵;9月,越南央行副行长陶明秀警告称,央行将加强对银行贷款的审查,特别是在房地产项目等风险领域。10月9日,地产大亨张美兰被捕入狱,还一度引发了对与此案有关的越南西贡商业银行的挤兑,暴露出越南金融业的脆弱。与此同时,由于通胀升温,货币遭受重挫,越南央行在9月和10月连续两次加息100个基点,也对股市形成利空。<<<图片加载中。。。>>>042021年QDII表现最好的国家是越南,2022年是印度,明年是哪里?在今年最后一个月里,随着美国10月通胀超预期降温、美联储暗示放缓加息,全球资产有望迎来更大反弹。在刚过去的11月,全球股市已经反弹了一波,其中亚洲股市大幅领跑。MSCI亚太指数11月涨幅高达14%,刷新1998年以来最大的月度涨幅,多个亚太市场的基准股指都强劲上冲,越南股市最近也连续五个交易日上涨。相比之下,MSCI国际全球指数的涨幅不到6%。有机构认为,在亚洲股市落后其他地区长达数月之后,其出色表现将持续至2023年。不过可能“西边不亮东边亮”,高盛策略师预计,亚太股市的龙头地位明年将从东南亚和印度转移到中国和韩国等市场。摩根士丹利预计MSCI中国指数将在明年上涨14%。随着中国“防疫二十条”和“地产十六条”的出台,11月,港股主要股指上涨约20%,轻松超过亚洲其他地区和全球主要股市。韩国股市外资净流入也连续第二个月超过20亿美元,11月韩国综合指数上涨6.7%。相比之下,曾被投资者视为通胀对冲工具的印尼股市11月走势持平,且有可能出现自去年7月以来的首次月度外资净流入转为负值。在主要股指创下历史新高后,投资者对印度股市的估值也更加谨慎。高盛预计,印度股市在2023年的表现将相对落后。投行杰弗瑞(Jefferies)持相似观点,该行增持港股、A股、中国台湾和韩国的股票,对印尼的评级为中性,对印度的评级为减持。对于芯片股,$法国兴业银行(0J6Y.UK)$和摩根士丹利均持谨慎回归的态度。法国兴业银行策略师上周在一份报告中写道:“股价通常会在半导体周期触底前两到三个季度触底。”“我们可能已经到了这一步。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668438775,"gmtCreate":1665046253997,"gmtModify":1665046255304,"author":{"id":"3451008041626229","authorId":"3451008041626229","name":"没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c968c28c6902568ed606452e3f4e6997","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451008041626229","authorIdStr":"3451008041626229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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2212(NQmain)$不要虚,今天还得上来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668438775","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3567681484372424","authorId":"3567681484372424","name":"yydsli","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567681484372424","authorIdStr":"3567681484372424"},"content":"下周大A开盘","text":"下周大A开盘","html":"下周大A开盘"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927606061,"gmtCreate":1588847288353,"gmtModify":1704178615378,"author":{"id":"3451008041626229","authorId":"3451008041626229","name":"没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c968c28c6902568ed606452e3f4e6997","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451008041626229","authorIdStr":"3451008041626229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ </a>做空的只会越来越多","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ </a>做空的只会越来越多","text":"$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ 做空的只会越来越多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927606061","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3451008041626229","authorId":"3451008041626229","name":"没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c968c28c6902568ed606452e3f4e6997","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3451008041626229","authorIdStr":"3451008041626229"},"content":"7块涨到27,现在的价格是个正常人都不会做多,30以上一推抄底盘扔给你","text":"7块涨到27,现在的价格是个正常人都不会做多,30以上一推抄底盘扔给你","html":"7块涨到27,现在的价格是个正常人都不会做多,30以上一推抄底盘扔给你"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":931263713,"gmtCreate":1570798859332,"gmtModify":1704721371034,"author":{"id":"3451008041626229","authorId":"3451008041626229","name":"没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c968c28c6902568ed606452e3f4e6997","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451008041626229","authorIdStr":"3451008041626229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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