pxczy的个人主页 - 老虎社区

pxczy

pxczy

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IP属地：广东

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1主题

0勋章

04-13

分析的不错

@我是股神的小腿毛:狂飙中的Temu为何也飙不动了？

2023-04-25

$第一共和银行(FRC)$ 凉了凉了

2023-03-30

神仙

计划出售价值3亿美元股票，3B家居跌超16%

2023-03-17

$第一共和银行(FRC)$ 老砸他干嘛

2023-03-10

$硅谷银行(SIVB)$ 可怕太可怕了

2023-03-09

还有五美元呢，赚大了

Wedbush：Silvergate Capital(SI.US)破产/清算可能性很大，清算价值为每股5美元

2023-02-23

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 你真行啊你

2022-10-28

$亚马逊(AMZN)$脑瓜子嗡嗡的

2022-08-12

爱加不加

美国通胀开始熄火了吗？接下来的加息节奏该关注什么指标？

2022-08-09

$英伟达(NVDA)$好惨噢

2022-07-31

梦里都不敢这么高

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-07-28

$每日优鲜(MF)$互联网寒冬

2022-07-22

$Snap Inc(SNAP)$老虎人气不行了这种地方居然没人

2022-06-01

拜登真是个人才什么事情都不做

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-05-03

$天然气ETF-United States(UNG)$这东西，没有最恶心，只有更恶心

2022-05-01

谁看得懂？

硬核科普：美联储缩表是怎么缩的？

2022-04-27

$奈飞(NFLX)$我的天哪

2022-03-16

$三倍做空FTSE中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$让你涨这么猛，这下舒坦了吧

2022-03-15

$短期VIX期货ETN(VXX)$这货溢价完全不受控制了，这公司好好的暂停发售，真是害死人呐，还能这么好搞的，太**了

2022-03-12

$滴滴(DIDI)$未实现盈亏 -88%

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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速卖通、Shein、亚马逊这些成熟的平台要想在上半年实现流量大幅增长也很难。图片第二、Temu为了降低地缘风险，刻意放缓了在美国和欧盟的投放力度。据4月7日消息，美国国土安全部计划加强对SHEIN和Temu等中国电商平台的低价小包裹的审查，以堵塞贸易漏洞。此前，价值不超过800美元的海外包裹进入美国时可免缴关税且不受严格检查，但近年来这类包裹的数量大幅上升。美国特别委员会报告指出，Temu和SHEIN可能是这一免税政策的主要受益者。国土安全部将严查这些包裹，同时调查是否有违反禁止强迫劳动的法规。无独有偶，法欧有关行业协会呼吁立法打击Temu等跨境电商平台。图片其实欧盟和美国不管以什么理由打压Temu，都只是个借口而已。它们之所以抓着Temu不放，核心原因在于Temu抢走了当地电商","text":"这个月很多做Temu的卖家反映，现在订单下滑的很严重，拉也拉不回来。有观点认为是买手的精力现在都在半托管，不在全托管的原因。因此流量都转向了半托管。但实际上，Temu半托管的商家数量并不多，不可能吸纳太多流量。还有一部分temu卖家把主要原因归咎于国际局势，如俄乌和中东冲突。导致航空运力紧张，影响物流效率，进而限制了平台投放广告和推流效果。这个理由更是扯淡了！如果真的是航空运力紧张，航空公司和物流公司早就上调运费了。2021和2022年的亚马逊卖家对此应该深有体会。而实际上，最近3个月中国出口集装箱运价指数都是下跌的。图片也就是说，不管是走空运还是海运，最近整体的国际物流运费都是下降的。航空运力紧张导致平台刻意放缓投放的理由显然是站不住脚的。那为什么自从2月份“超级碗”投放实现一波流量增长后，从3月4日到现在，Temu的流量几乎不增长了？图片在我看来，主要原因就两点：第一、4-7月份是跨境电商行业的传统淡季。每年的上半年，由于国外没有太多节日刺激消费，外贸行业都是淡季。 不只是Temu， 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22:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"计划出售价值3亿美元股票，3B家居跌超16%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2323710418","media":"智通财经网","summary":"截至发稿，该股跌超10%，报0.721美元","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月30日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B家居</a>股价走低，截至发稿，该股跌超16%，报0.6755美元。此前该公司称计划出售价值3亿美元的股票，同时终止了先前与对冲基金Hudson Bay Capital Management LP的筹款协议。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca17050c91dc737a05804ecfb91e33a\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"833\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>计划出售价值3亿美元股票，3B家居跌超16%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n计划出售价值3亿美元股票，3B家居跌超16%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-30 22:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/903388.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月30日，3B家居股价走低，截至发稿，该股跌超16%，报0.6755美元。此前该公司称计划出售价值3亿美元的股票，同时终止了先前与对冲基金Hudson Bay Capital Management LP的筹款协议。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/903388.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"3B家居","BK4178":"家庭装饰零售","BK4547":"WSB热门概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/903388.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2323710418","content_text":"3月30日，3B家居股价走低，截至发稿，该股跌超16%，报0.6755美元。此前该公司称计划出售价值3亿美元的股票，同时终止了先前与对冲基金Hudson Bay Capital Management LP的筹款协议。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":650848648,"gmtCreate":1679060153685,"gmtModify":1679060154821,"author":{"id":"3450578137237105","authorId":"3450578137237105","name":"pxczy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd34bea9547dee53d57a3a91497bd05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">$第一共和银行(FRC)$ &nbsp;</a>老砸他干嘛","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">$第一共和银行(FRC)$ &nbsp;</a>老砸他干嘛","text":"$第一共和银行(FRC)$ 老砸他干嘛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650848648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3563258924005349","authorId":"3563258924005349","name":"KARRER","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fd56e718cfdb2121323dd8e6a387434","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"今天空方期权到期，肯定砸","text":"今天空方期权到期，肯定砸","html":"今天空方期权到期，肯定砸"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":627527033,"gmtCreate":1678442407123,"gmtModify":1678442409779,"author":{"id":"3450578137237105","authorId":"3450578137237105","name":"pxczy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd34bea9547dee53d57a3a91497bd05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">$硅谷银行(SIVB)$ &nbsp;</a>可怕&nbsp; 太可怕了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">$硅谷银行(SIVB)$ &nbsp;</a>可怕&nbsp; 太可怕了","text":"$硅谷银行(SIVB)$ 可怕 太可怕了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627527033","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":627222208,"gmtCreate":1678364638405,"gmtModify":1678364640041,"author":{"id":"3450578137237105","authorId":"3450578137237105","name":"pxczy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd34bea9547dee53d57a3a91497bd05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还有五美元呢，赚大了","listText":"还有五美元呢，赚大了","text":"还有五美元呢，赚大了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627222208","repostId":"2317758451","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2317758451","pubTimestamp":1678110485,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2317758451?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-06 21:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wedbush：Silvergate Capital(SI.US)破产/清算可能性很大，清算价值为每股5美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317758451","media":"智通财经网","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，Wedbush分析师David Chiaverini将Silvergate Capital(SI.US)的评级从“中性”下调至“跑输大盘”，并将其目标价从9美元下调至4美元，原因是该公司上周五表示，以做出“基于风险的决定”立即停止 Silvergate Exchange Network(SEN)支付网络服务。据了解，SEN是Silvergate的主要旗舰产品，以前是吸引储户将资金带到银行的主要吸引力，该行认为，SEN的终止可能标志着Silvergate可能会考虑逐步结束其业务。对此，Wedbush认为，破产/清算的可能性很大，清算价值为每股5美元。","content":"<html><body><article><p>智通财经APP获悉，Wedbush分析师David Chiaverini将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SI\">Silvergate Capital</a>(SI.US)的评级从“中性”下调至“跑输大盘”，并将其目标价从9美元下调至4美元，原因是该公司上周五表示，以做出“基于风险的决定”立即停止 Silvergate Exchange Network(SEN)支付网络服务。</p><p>据了解，SEN是Silvergate的主要旗舰产品，以前是吸引储户将资金带到银行的主要吸引力，该行认为，SEN的终止可能标志着Silvergate可能会考虑逐步结束其业务。</p><p>对此，Wedbush认为，破产/清算的可能性很大，清算价值为每股5美元。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wedbush：Silvergate Capital(SI.US)破产/清算可能性很大，清算价值为每股5美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWedbush：Silvergate Capital(SI.US)破产/清算可能性很大，清算价值为每股5美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-06 21:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023030621490584168be2&s=b><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，Wedbush分析师David Chiaverini将Silvergate Capital(SI.US)的评级从“中性”下调至“跑输大盘”，并将其目标价从9美元下调至4美元，原因是该公司上周五表示，以做出“基于风险的决定”立即停止 Silvergate Exchange Network(SEN)支付网络服务。据了解，SEN是Silvergate的主要旗舰产品，以前是吸引储户将...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023030621490584168be2&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4211":"区域性银行"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023030621490584168be2&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2317758451","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，Wedbush分析师David Chiaverini将Silvergate Capital(SI.US)的评级从“中性”下调至“跑输大盘”，并将其目标价从9美元下调至4美元，原因是该公司上周五表示，以做出“基于风险的决定”立即停止 Silvergate Exchange Network(SEN)支付网络服务。据了解，SEN是Silvergate的主要旗舰产品，以前是吸引储户将资金带到银行的主要吸引力，该行认为，SEN的终止可能标志着Silvergate可能会考虑逐步结束其业务。对此，Wedbush认为，破产/清算的可能性很大，清算价值为每股5美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624365116,"gmtCreate":1677088873035,"gmtModify":1677088874137,"author":{"id":"3450578137237105","authorId":"3450578137237105","name":"pxczy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd34bea9547dee53d57a3a91497bd05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$&nbsp;</a>你真行啊你","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$&nbsp;</a>你真行啊你","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 你真行啊你","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624365116","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":665963593,"gmtCreate":1666902885812,"gmtModify":1666903350052,"author":{"id":"3450578137237105","authorId":"3450578137237105","name":"pxczy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd34bea9547dee53d57a3a91497bd05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>脑瓜子嗡嗡的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>脑瓜子嗡嗡的","text":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$脑瓜子嗡嗡的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665963593","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684639144,"gmtCreate":1660247175889,"gmtModify":1660247175889,"author":{"id":"3450578137237105","authorId":"3450578137237105","name":"pxczy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd34bea9547dee53d57a3a91497bd05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"爱加不加","listText":"爱加不加","text":"爱加不加","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684639144","repostId":"2258174229","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2258174229","pubTimestamp":1660200122,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2258174229?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-11 14:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国通胀开始熄火了吗？接下来的加息节奏该关注什么指标？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2258174229","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"东吴证券认为，7月美国CPI和核心CPI终于双双不及预期，9月议息会议加息75bp的概率下降，但年内通胀下行不及市场预期的风险点尚存，通胀回落还未形成趋势，尚不能排除美联储年内加息至4%的可能性。在连","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>东吴证券认为，7月美国CPI和核心CPI终于双双不及预期，9月议息会议加息75bp的概率下降，但年内通胀下行不及市场预期的风险点尚存，通胀回落还未形成趋势，尚不能排除美联储年内加息至4%的可能性。</blockquote><p>在连续多月超预期高涨后，2022年7月美国CPI和核心CPI终于双双不及预期，9月议息会议加息 75bp的概率下降。不过，各联储密切跟踪的通胀指标显示潜在的通胀依旧在上行，我们认为还需再连续观测到至少两个月通胀的下行，美联储才会认可通胀模式的转变，在此之前美联储仍将以非常态的幅度加息，<b>因此仍不能排除年内加息至4%的可能。</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4407b2b628bba87774a598dd343d14\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>从细项上来看7月通胀数据，汽油价格环比回落抵消了食品和住房租金的上涨，CPI环比增速为零：汽油环比降7.7%（前值+11.2%），食品环比升1.1%（前值+1.0%）。8月第一周汽油价格延续了7月的下跌，而期货市场预期年内此趋势将延续，助力CPI逐步放缓的趋势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8711454c58c52f44113389f826fbd6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"808\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>不过，核心CPI的走势仍有待观察，尽管其7月环比增速放缓至0.3%（前值0.6%），但5.9%的同比增速与上月持平。由此可见，年内通胀下行不及市场预期的风险点尚存，我们认为主要有三个：</p><p>首先，住房租金作为美国通胀超预期的最大风险点。7月住房租金同比增幅扩大至5.7%，环比增速回落0.1%至0.5%（图2）。标普美国房价指数领先住房租金约15个月，以此倒推，2022年8至11月对应2021年5至8月，而彼时标普美国房价指数持续跳升，直到2021年9月上涨动能才减弱（图3）。<b>因此，住房租金环比动能最早可能在2022年12月才能减弱，而住房市场整体趋势性的降温要到2023年年中才能有所体现。</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04a1d0ab0f02acf71f293d48462eecd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>再者，车辆作为核心商品的重要组成部分（占比CPI近8%），其价格下行趋势尚不稳定。尽管7月新车价格环比增速回落至0.6%（前值0.7%），二手车价格环比增速回落至-0.4%（前值1.6%）。鉴于芯片供应问题尚未完全缓解，并且受到被压抑的需求释放的影响，车辆价格增速的回落尚未形成稳定态势（图4）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c56fa0350e6c750c146ab03176c624c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>最后，薪资环比增速仍在回升，加剧通胀的粘性。7月美国平均时薪增速回落至5.2%，回落幅度不及我们的预期。尽管制造业、批发贸易等行业工资增速放缓，但是以增幅最大的休闲和酒店业为代表的服务业尚未放缓（图5-图6）。而降至3.5%的失业率更是印证了美国经济尚未放缓，这需要美联储进一步采取行动，才能使得经济“降温”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a920ee7d2cfb5dcf7ee4492e950a9faf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8554b0add0b765eac88837492f0875\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>我们的模型显示2022年年内核心CPI回落至5%、核心PCE回落至4%均面临挑战（图7）。如此来看，直至2023年末，通胀回归美联储2%的目标难度很大，锚定3%或许更为现实。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b97850db848bbac06a071e87ed55bd1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>通胀回落还未形成趋势，尚不能排除美联储年内加息至4%的可能性。我们此前的报告参考了当前中性利率的估计（0.3%）和上一轮加息周期（2015-2018年）的经验，认为只有当实际政策利率回归到零附近时，本轮加息周期才会结束（图8）。<b>这意味着若想要年内核心PCE回落至4%附近，美联储仍需加息至少150bp，才能将实际政策利率引导至零。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797faa55e6886208cc73faa7a47a3b9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"940\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>不过鉴于通胀数据比就业对于美联储加息的指引性更强，我们认为9月加息75bp的概率下降。将在美联储9月20至21日的议息会议前发布的8月通胀数据至关重要，若届时通胀持续下降，则可以基本排除9月加息75bp的可能性。为此我们将对美联储官员的表态以及8月25-27日杰克逊霍尔会议上鲍威尔讲话释放的信号进行持续的跟踪。</p><p>至于加息步调何时回归25bp的常态？7月议息会议上鲍威尔曾表示，在物价涨势以“令人信服”的方式放缓之前，还会继续升息。<b>我们认为CPI至少要持续下降3个月，美联储才会认可通胀上升模式的转变，而对加息步调回归25bp的讨论最早要到11月的议息会议。</b>鉴于未来的加息节奏将更多依赖于经济数据，9月议息会议前公布经济数据仍有超市场预期的可能，这会让美联储放缓加息的选择更加困难。</p><p><b>从债券市场定价来看，</b>美联储引导实际利率上升的做法是成功的，7月议息会议以来，10Y美债收益率上升主要受到实际利率上升的带动（图9）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc58ab3ec77f5003851dd9551415f172\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>而参考历史数据，在美联储以利率作为政策目标的时期，10年期美债收益率的高点往往不低于联邦基金利率的高点，这意味着当前10年期美国国债2.8%的利率水平过低，年内回升至3%的问题不大。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f20f8a5e94f0818fa2853fb332069f5e\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>风险提示：新冠病毒变异导致疫苗失效，确诊病例大爆发导致美国经济重回封锁；俄乌局势失控造成大宗商品价格剧烈波动</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-11 14:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247500492&idx=1&sn=ff46ddb59d0420b4c5361e5e10d92339&chksm=faaa37bfcdddbea9db2330c915e01a72d2e8c943c3d7d1eec40ea7cf25842b5babebb6336c76&scene=0&xtrack=1><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>东吴证券认为，7月美国CPI和核心CPI终于双双不及预期，9月议息会议加息75bp的概率下降，但年内通胀下行不及市场预期的风险点尚存，通胀回落还未形成趋势，尚不能排除美联储年内加息至4%的可能性。在连续多月超预期高涨后，2022年7月美国CPI和核心CPI终于双双不及预期，9月议息会议加息 75bp的概率下降。不过，各联储密切跟踪的通胀指标显示潜在的通胀依旧在上行，我们认为还需再连续观测到至少两个...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247500492&idx=1&sn=ff46ddb59d0420b4c5361e5e10d92339&chksm=faaa37bfcdddbea9db2330c915e01a72d2e8c943c3d7d1eec40ea7cf25842b5babebb6336c76&scene=0&xtrack=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 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75bp的概率下降。不过，各联储密切跟踪的通胀指标显示潜在的通胀依旧在上行，我们认为还需再连续观测到至少两个月通胀的下行，美联储才会认可通胀模式的转变，在此之前美联储仍将以非常态的幅度加息，因此仍不能排除年内加息至4%的可能。从细项上来看7月通胀数据，汽油价格环比回落抵消了食品和住房租金的上涨，CPI环比增速为零：汽油环比降7.7%（前值+11.2%），食品环比升1.1%（前值+1.0%）。8月第一周汽油价格延续了7月的下跌，而期货市场预期年内此趋势将延续，助力CPI逐步放缓的趋势。不过，核心CPI的走势仍有待观察，尽管其7月环比增速放缓至0.3%（前值0.6%），但5.9%的同比增速与上月持平。由此可见，年内通胀下行不及市场预期的风险点尚存，我们认为主要有三个：首先，住房租金作为美国通胀超预期的最大风险点。7月住房租金同比增幅扩大至5.7%，环比增速回落0.1%至0.5%（图2）。标普美国房价指数领先住房租金约15个月，以此倒推，2022年8至11月对应2021年5至8月，而彼时标普美国房价指数持续跳升，直到2021年9月上涨动能才减弱（图3）。因此，住房租金环比动能最早可能在2022年12月才能减弱，而住房市场整体趋势性的降温要到2023年年中才能有所体现。再者，车辆作为核心商品的重要组成部分（占比CPI近8%），其价格下行趋势尚不稳定。尽管7月新车价格环比增速回落至0.6%（前值0.7%），二手车价格环比增速回落至-0.4%（前值1.6%）。鉴于芯片供应问题尚未完全缓解，并且受到被压抑的需求释放的影响，车辆价格增速的回落尚未形成稳定态势（图4）。最后，薪资环比增速仍在回升，加剧通胀的粘性。7月美国平均时薪增速回落至5.2%，回落幅度不及我们的预期。尽管制造业、批发贸易等行业工资增速放缓，但是以增幅最大的休闲和酒店业为代表的服务业尚未放缓（图5-图6）。而降至3.5%的失业率更是印证了美国经济尚未放缓，这需要美联储进一步采取行动，才能使得经济“降温”。我们的模型显示2022年年内核心CPI回落至5%、核心PCE回落至4%均面临挑战（图7）。如此来看，直至2023年末，通胀回归美联储2%的目标难度很大，锚定3%或许更为现实。通胀回落还未形成趋势，尚不能排除美联储年内加息至4%的可能性。我们此前的报告参考了当前中性利率的估计（0.3%）和上一轮加息周期（2015-2018年）的经验，认为只有当实际政策利率回归到零附近时，本轮加息周期才会结束（图8）。这意味着若想要年内核心PCE回落至4%附近，美联储仍需加息至少150bp，才能将实际政策利率引导至零。不过鉴于通胀数据比就业对于美联储加息的指引性更强，我们认为9月加息75bp的概率下降。将在美联储9月20至21日的议息会议前发布的8月通胀数据至关重要，若届时通胀持续下降，则可以基本排除9月加息75bp的可能性。为此我们将对美联储官员的表态以及8月25-27日杰克逊霍尔会议上鲍威尔讲话释放的信号进行持续的跟踪。至于加息步调何时回归25bp的常态？7月议息会议上鲍威尔曾表示，在物价涨势以“令人信服”的方式放缓之前，还会继续升息。我们认为CPI至少要持续下降3个月，美联储才会认可通胀上升模式的转变，而对加息步调回归25bp的讨论最早要到11月的议息会议。鉴于未来的加息节奏将更多依赖于经济数据，9月议息会议前公布经济数据仍有超市场预期的可能，这会让美联储放缓加息的选择更加困难。从债券市场定价来看，美联储引导实际利率上升的做法是成功的，7月议息会议以来，10Y美债收益率上升主要受到实际利率上升的带动（图9）。而参考历史数据，在美联储以利率作为政策目标的时期，10年期美债收益率的高点往往不低于联邦基金利率的高点，这意味着当前10年期美国国债2.8%的利率水平过低，年内回升至3%的问题不大。风险提示：新冠病毒变异导致疫苗失效，确诊病例大爆发导致美国经济重回封锁；俄乌局势失控造成大宗商品价格剧烈波动","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684956450,"gmtCreate":1660060538573,"gmtModify":1660060538573,"author":{"id":"3450578137237105","authorId":"3450578137237105","name":"pxczy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd34bea9547dee53d57a3a91497bd05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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10:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"硬核科普： 美联储缩表是怎么缩的？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173045579","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"而2020年疫情爆发以来，美联储的资产负债再度扩张2.25倍。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>自从前美联储主席伯南克将QE带入美国货币政策框架，美联储的资产负债表便开启了易放难收的扩张之路。上一轮QE至QT期间（2009 年至 2019 年间），大规模的资产购买导致美联储的资产负债表增长了约4倍。</p><p>而2020年疫情爆发以来，美联储的资产负债再度扩张2.25倍。这导致当前美国金融体系内部流动性泛滥，ON RRP工具（可理解为非银机构闲置资金的蓄水池）用量维持在1.5万亿以上。</p><p>目前3月FOMC纪要对缩表计划做出了详细的讨论，表示最早将于5月的议息会议后开始缩表，而且速度要比前一轮更快。</p><p>在3月加息之前，联储曾连续发布了4篇文章预热加息的相关机制，这次缩表也没例外。资产购买如何增加美联储资产负债表的规模？减少再投资将如何减少资产负债表的规模？ON RRP工具的存在如何影响资产负债表径流的机制？杠杆NBFI和家庭在缩表过程中又会有些什么作用？</p><p>在这篇文章中，我们通过描述美联储资产负债表的变动机制来回答这些问题。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9172839fa320a8bd96168ab0a8789e40\" tg-width=\"474\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>美联储如何扩大资产负债表</b></p><p>缩表总要从扩表说起，也就是大规模资产购买（QE）。我们首先描述美联储、财政部、银行业和非银行公众的简化资产负债表。以使我们能够专注于理解与美联储行动相关的机制所必需的要素。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d73165f3444816dce66e041a44db0271\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>美联储的资产负债表上，资产端为国债，负债端为各类账户持有人持有的存款。（包括银行准备金或财政部的现金余额。）</p><p>财政部资产负债表上，在美联储的“支票账户”（财政部普通账户，或TGA）中持有现金余额作为资产，并发行国债作为负债。</p><p>银行的资产负债表上，持有国库券和准备金作为资产，向公众提供银行存款为主要负债。</p><p>公众资产负债表上，持有国债和银行存款作为资产。与银行业和财政部相比，公众不能直接在美联储账户中持有余额。</p><p><b>美联储如何扩大资产负债表之——向银行购买，注入金融体系流动性</b></p><p>美联储通过发行更多准备金来购买银行持有的美国国债。即每购买1美元的证券，美联储的资产和负债都会增加1美元，总资产扩大1美元。而银行出售国债后，它们的国债资产减少，但准备金以同等数量增加，总资产不变。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1c64bfc51be4155795d7ce7f87c948f\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>美联储如何扩大资产负债表之——向公众（个人与公司等）购买，注入社会流动性</b></p><p>当美联储向公众购买资产时，美联储的资产负债表如上面的例子一样。由于公众无法直接在美联储持有准备金。因此银行部门代为持有准备金，同时公众存款增加，公众的存款资产增加国债资产减少。三笔交易同时发生，美联储和银行的资产负债表同时扩张。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3f1e1d7ee9535a13f9468d1eea5a59d\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>从美联储的角度来看，向谁购买国债并不重要。因为无论哪种情况，其资产负债表的规模都会增加相同的数量。</p><p>而银行业资产负债表的规模则取决于向谁购买。如果是向银行，那么银行业的资产负债表规模不变，但其结构会发生变化。如果是向非银行公众购买，那么银行业的资产负债表将同样扩张。</p><p>Demiralp、Ihrig和Klee所做的联储相关研究表明，美联储在大规模资产购买过程中购买的大部分资产来自非银行机构，也就是说银行业的资产负债表也在资产购买的过程中显著扩张。</p><p><b>如何被动缩表（停止再投资）</b></p><p>当美联储持有的国债到期，美联储不将到期证券的资金再投资，同时，财政部也不发行新证券的情况。那么财政部会通过将现金从TGA“转移”到美联储来偿付国债到期。美联储的资产减少，负债也减少，其资产负债表规模开始收缩。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5e3d8efd4ec90c389450595e7cb4e90\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>但如果财政部在旧证券到期时发行新债券，那么这部分债券则必须要市场上的其他人来购买。</p><p>当银行购买财政部发行的新证券，银行准备金余额转移到财政部账户TGA，抵消了财政部偿付美联储的到期国债，银行在美联储的准备金减少。银行持有国债增加，准备金减少。这个过程结束时，美联储的资产负债表规模缩小了，财政部的资产负债表没有变化，银行业的资产负债表不变，但结构变化。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cfc627d3962353070d55b4299933f40\" tg-width=\"475\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>当非银行公众购买新发行的国债，那么美联储的资产负债表同样缩小，银行准备金被公众用于购买新发国债，准备金减少，公众存款减少。银行资产负债表缩小。公众持有的国债增加，存款减少。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f050dd2aa7c00305ac0f5df9abdfd599\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>ON RRP工具如何影响缩表</b></p><p>在上一轮缩表过程中，即2017年隔夜逆回购 (ON RRP) 工具相当小（大部分时间里不到2000亿美元），相比之下，如今ON RRP的用量要大得多（2022年大部分时间超过1.5万亿美元）。</p><p>如果准备金是银行的安全垫，那么ON RRP用量则是非银金融机构的安全垫。以货币市场基金（MMFs）为例，其相当于前文所述的某个公众的角色，但其可在美联储的资产表中直接表现为ON RRP用量（这与其他公众不能在美联储直接存款略有差异）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a277affe5b50268120af69131539d48\" tg-width=\"322\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>那么当 MMFs购买新发行的国债时，MMFs既可以通过在银行提取存款，也可以通过减少ON RRP用量，甚至两者结合的方式来为其购买提供资金。</p><p>假设MMFs同时使用存款和ON RRP用量购买国债。在美联储的资产负债表中，持有国债资产减少1美元的同时，银行准备金和ON RRP用量总计减少1美元，总资产缩减。银行准备金和MMFs存款部分减少，资产负债表部分缩减。MMFs资产负债表中，在银行的存款减少，同时减少对 ON RRP用量的占用，结构发生变化。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/573597c17e3c92e848f51df1319dc6ae\" tg-width=\"474\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>可以看到，美联储缩表1美元的效果会被MMFs的ON RRP用量所抵消，对银行资产负债表的和准备金的影响减半。</p><p><b><u>从目前ON RRP用量在2万亿，而美联储缩表的计划上限为每月950亿来看，即便完全使用ON RRP至疫情前常规水平，也能有12-17个月的缓冲期。</u></b></p><p>当然金融条件的收紧定然不是线性的，况且由于MMFs只能购买短期国债和浮动利率债券，因此只有当这些证券大量发行时，MMFs才能吸收美联储资产负债表缩减的很大部分。此外，MMFs购买国债的愿意也取决于国债与银行存款、ON RRP投资的利差。</p><p>不过，由于MMFs行业的很大部分（政府基金）不能投资于银行存款，因此MMFs购买国债同样可能会更倾向于减少ON RRP用量来融资。</p><p><b>杠杆 NBFI和家庭的作用</b></p><p>当新发行的美国国债被杠杆非银行金融机构 (NBFI)（例如对冲基金或非银行交易商）和家庭购买时，私营部门资产负债表的调整可能更为复杂，涉及跨市场和机构的流动金额将超过私人部门证券持有的净增加值。</p><p>杠杆NBFI——即通过债务（例如，通过在回购市场借款）为其大部分资产融资的非银金融机构。</p><p>我们在简化的资产负债表中加入此类非银行金融机构，并增加杠杆科目：贷款（Loans）以及与非银行金融机构的逆回购回购（Repos）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fdd8b804e968e6cd59969a2305d51b\" tg-width=\"474\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>当杠杆NBFI购买1美元新发国债时，NBFI通过银行回购（0.5美元）和 MMF（0.5美元）为购债融资，并以新发国债作为抵押品。</p><p>NBFI的资产增加1美元，负债增加1美元回购借款，总资产规模扩大1美元。</p><p>银行通过逆回购向NBFI提供贷款。银行资产负债表的规模不变，但资产构成发生变化（准备金减少，回购贷款增加）。</p><p>同样，MMF 通过逆回购向NBFI提供贷款。MMF的资产负债表规模不变，但资产构成发生变化（ON RRP余额减少，回购贷款增加）。</p><p><b><u>可以看到在这样的情况下，美联储缩表被信贷扩张（金融系统杠杆增加）所抵消，私营部门的总资产甚至有所扩张。</u></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca177a2c8ce91321c63a80e9ec51d8aa\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>当新发行的美国国债通过杠杆交易商后最终被家庭购买，由于家庭部门的不同，且他们将储蓄保存在不同类型的资产中。因此假设家庭通过减少银行存款（0.5美元）、持有的 MMF 份额（0.25美元），以及在NBFI的现金余额（0.25美元）来购买新发国债。</p><p>当家庭购买1美元国债时，家庭资产负债表的规模没有变化，但家庭资产的构成发生了变化（国债持有量增加；银行存款减少，货币基金份额减少，非银行金融机构现金账户余额减少）。</p><p>MMF通过减少ON RRP的用量来应对家庭投资的减少。MMF的资产负债表收缩0.25美元。</p><p>杠杆 NBFI 通过银行借款来弥补家庭现金余额的减少（0.25美元）。当然NBFI也可以从 MMF 中借款，此处仅为简单举例。NBFI的资产负债表规模不变，但负债构成发生了变化（现金余额减少，银行贷款增加）。</p><p>银行因家庭存款减少0.5美元以及为贷款提供资金减少0.25美元合计减少0.75美元准备金。银行同时向NBFI发放贷款（0.25美元）以弥补家庭对NFBI的资金流出。整体资产负债表缩减了0.5美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac90e46ab67d091ca463196565261d5\" tg-width=\"467\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><b>END</b></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>硬核科普： 美联储缩表是怎么缩的？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n硬核科普： 美联储缩表是怎么缩的？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-01 10:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3658355><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>自从前美联储主席伯南克将QE带入美国货币政策框架，美联储的资产负债表便开启了易放难收的扩张之路。上一轮QE至QT期间（2009 年至 2019 年间），大规模的资产购买导致美联储的资产负债表增长了约4倍。而2020年疫情爆发以来，美联储的资产负债再度扩张2.25倍。这导致当前美国金融体系内部流动性泛滥，ON RRP工具（可理解为非银机构闲置资金的蓄水池）用量维持在1.5万亿以上。目前3月FOMC...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3658355\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3658355","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1173045579","content_text":"自从前美联储主席伯南克将QE带入美国货币政策框架，美联储的资产负债表便开启了易放难收的扩张之路。上一轮QE至QT期间（2009 年至 2019 年间），大规模的资产购买导致美联储的资产负债表增长了约4倍。而2020年疫情爆发以来，美联储的资产负债再度扩张2.25倍。这导致当前美国金融体系内部流动性泛滥，ON RRP工具（可理解为非银机构闲置资金的蓄水池）用量维持在1.5万亿以上。目前3月FOMC纪要对缩表计划做出了详细的讨论，表示最早将于5月的议息会议后开始缩表，而且速度要比前一轮更快。在3月加息之前，联储曾连续发布了4篇文章预热加息的相关机制，这次缩表也没例外。资产购买如何增加美联储资产负债表的规模？减少再投资将如何减少资产负债表的规模？ON RRP工具的存在如何影响资产负债表径流的机制？杠杆NBFI和家庭在缩表过程中又会有些什么作用？在这篇文章中，我们通过描述美联储资产负债表的变动机制来回答这些问题。美联储如何扩大资产负债表缩表总要从扩表说起，也就是大规模资产购买（QE）。我们首先描述美联储、财政部、银行业和非银行公众的简化资产负债表。以使我们能够专注于理解与美联储行动相关的机制所必需的要素。美联储的资产负债表上，资产端为国债，负债端为各类账户持有人持有的存款。（包括银行准备金或财政部的现金余额。）财政部资产负债表上，在美联储的“支票账户”（财政部普通账户，或TGA）中持有现金余额作为资产，并发行国债作为负债。银行的资产负债表上，持有国库券和准备金作为资产，向公众提供银行存款为主要负债。公众资产负债表上，持有国债和银行存款作为资产。与银行业和财政部相比，公众不能直接在美联储账户中持有余额。美联储如何扩大资产负债表之——向银行购买，注入金融体系流动性美联储通过发行更多准备金来购买银行持有的美国国债。即每购买1美元的证券，美联储的资产和负债都会增加1美元，总资产扩大1美元。而银行出售国债后，它们的国债资产减少，但准备金以同等数量增加，总资产不变。美联储如何扩大资产负债表之——向公众（个人与公司等）购买，注入社会流动性当美联储向公众购买资产时，美联储的资产负债表如上面的例子一样。由于公众无法直接在美联储持有准备金。因此银行部门代为持有准备金，同时公众存款增加，公众的存款资产增加国债资产减少。三笔交易同时发生，美联储和银行的资产负债表同时扩张。从美联储的角度来看，向谁购买国债并不重要。因为无论哪种情况，其资产负债表的规模都会增加相同的数量。而银行业资产负债表的规模则取决于向谁购买。如果是向银行，那么银行业的资产负债表规模不变，但其结构会发生变化。如果是向非银行公众购买，那么银行业的资产负债表将同样扩张。Demiralp、Ihrig和Klee所做的联储相关研究表明，美联储在大规模资产购买过程中购买的大部分资产来自非银行机构，也就是说银行业的资产负债表也在资产购买的过程中显著扩张。如何被动缩表（停止再投资）当美联储持有的国债到期，美联储不将到期证券的资金再投资，同时，财政部也不发行新证券的情况。那么财政部会通过将现金从TGA“转移”到美联储来偿付国债到期。美联储的资产减少，负债也减少，其资产负债表规模开始收缩。但如果财政部在旧证券到期时发行新债券，那么这部分债券则必须要市场上的其他人来购买。当银行购买财政部发行的新证券，银行准备金余额转移到财政部账户TGA，抵消了财政部偿付美联储的到期国债，银行在美联储的准备金减少。银行持有国债增加，准备金减少。这个过程结束时，美联储的资产负债表规模缩小了，财政部的资产负债表没有变化，银行业的资产负债表不变，但结构变化。当非银行公众购买新发行的国债，那么美联储的资产负债表同样缩小，银行准备金被公众用于购买新发国债，准备金减少，公众存款减少。银行资产负债表缩小。公众持有的国债增加，存款减少。ON RRP工具如何影响缩表在上一轮缩表过程中，即2017年隔夜逆回购 (ON RRP) 工具相当小（大部分时间里不到2000亿美元），相比之下，如今ON RRP的用量要大得多（2022年大部分时间超过1.5万亿美元）。如果准备金是银行的安全垫，那么ON RRP用量则是非银金融机构的安全垫。以货币市场基金（MMFs）为例，其相当于前文所述的某个公众的角色，但其可在美联储的资产表中直接表现为ON RRP用量（这与其他公众不能在美联储直接存款略有差异）。那么当 MMFs购买新发行的国债时，MMFs既可以通过在银行提取存款，也可以通过减少ON RRP用量，甚至两者结合的方式来为其购买提供资金。假设MMFs同时使用存款和ON RRP用量购买国债。在美联储的资产负债表中，持有国债资产减少1美元的同时，银行准备金和ON RRP用量总计减少1美元，总资产缩减。银行准备金和MMFs存款部分减少，资产负债表部分缩减。MMFs资产负债表中，在银行的存款减少，同时减少对 ON RRP用量的占用，结构发生变化。可以看到，美联储缩表1美元的效果会被MMFs的ON RRP用量所抵消，对银行资产负债表的和准备金的影响减半。从目前ON RRP用量在2万亿，而美联储缩表的计划上限为每月950亿来看，即便完全使用ON RRP至疫情前常规水平，也能有12-17个月的缓冲期。当然金融条件的收紧定然不是线性的，况且由于MMFs只能购买短期国债和浮动利率债券，因此只有当这些证券大量发行时，MMFs才能吸收美联储资产负债表缩减的很大部分。此外，MMFs购买国债的愿意也取决于国债与银行存款、ON RRP投资的利差。不过，由于MMFs行业的很大部分（政府基金）不能投资于银行存款，因此MMFs购买国债同样可能会更倾向于减少ON RRP用量来融资。杠杆 NBFI和家庭的作用当新发行的美国国债被杠杆非银行金融机构 (NBFI)（例如对冲基金或非银行交易商）和家庭购买时，私营部门资产负债表的调整可能更为复杂，涉及跨市场和机构的流动金额将超过私人部门证券持有的净增加值。杠杆NBFI——即通过债务（例如，通过在回购市场借款）为其大部分资产融资的非银金融机构。我们在简化的资产负债表中加入此类非银行金融机构，并增加杠杆科目：贷款（Loans）以及与非银行金融机构的逆回购回购（Repos）。当杠杆NBFI购买1美元新发国债时，NBFI通过银行回购（0.5美元）和 MMF（0.5美元）为购债融资，并以新发国债作为抵押品。NBFI的资产增加1美元，负债增加1美元回购借款，总资产规模扩大1美元。银行通过逆回购向NBFI提供贷款。银行资产负债表的规模不变，但资产构成发生变化（准备金减少，回购贷款增加）。同样，MMF 通过逆回购向NBFI提供贷款。MMF的资产负债表规模不变，但资产构成发生变化（ON RRP余额减少，回购贷款增加）。可以看到在这样的情况下，美联储缩表被信贷扩张（金融系统杠杆增加）所抵消，私营部门的总资产甚至有所扩张。当新发行的美国国债通过杠杆交易商后最终被家庭购买，由于家庭部门的不同，且他们将储蓄保存在不同类型的资产中。因此假设家庭通过减少银行存款（0.5美元）、持有的 MMF 份额（0.25美元），以及在NBFI的现金余额（0.25美元）来购买新发国债。当家庭购买1美元国债时，家庭资产负债表的规模没有变化，但家庭资产的构成发生了变化（国债持有量增加；银行存款减少，货币基金份额减少，非银行金融机构现金账户余额减少）。MMF通过减少ON RRP的用量来应对家庭投资的减少。MMF的资产负债表收缩0.25美元。杠杆 NBFI 通过银行借款来弥补家庭现金余额的减少（0.25美元）。当然NBFI也可以从 MMF 中借款，此处仅为简单举例。NBFI的资产负债表规模不变，但负债构成发生了变化（现金余额减少，银行贷款增加）。银行因家庭存款减少0.5美元以及为贷款提供资金减少0.25美元合计减少0.75美元准备金。银行同时向NBFI发放贷款（0.25美元）以弥补家庭对NFBI的资金流出。整体资产负债表缩减了0.5美元。END","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":618501450,"gmtCreate":1651073406968,"gmtModify":1651073406968,"author":{"id":"3450578137237105","authorId":"3450578137237105","name":"pxczy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd34bea9547dee53d57a3a91497bd05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a>我的天哪","listText":"<a 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