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浪得虚名
12-20
$小米集团-W(01810)$
尾盘成交20亿是个什么鬼?有虎友明白吗?
浪得虚名
2020-06-30
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
看得心惊胆战,准备被强平了,今夜无眠[流泪] [流泪] [流泪]
浪得虚名
2020-06-18
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
晒晒我的成长记录!
浪得虚名
2020-06-10
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
想让其灭亡,必须先让其疯狂!
浪得虚名
2020-06-10
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
还有完没完了。。。
浪得虚名
2020-06-08
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
疫情是假的吗?中美贸易战是假的吗?消费降级是假的吗?马老板说股价过高是假的吗?坚定做空!
浪得虚名
2020-06-06
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
马总又是演的哪一出呢?
浪得虚名
2020-06-05
做梦吧
抱歉,原内容已删除
浪得虚名
2020-06-04
被迫表态了[捂脸] [笑哭]
汇丰王冬胜:香港国家安全立法可为港带来长远繁荣稳定
浪得虚名
2020-05-22
MLGB是什么原因敢说不!
港股恒指大跌:小米跌逾6% 腾讯跌逾3%
浪得虚名
2020-05-01
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
51开市吗?
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
浪得虚名
2020-04-25
又长又臭,靠标题就知道不是什么好东西
鲁政委:负油价可能是美国金融战新武器
浪得虚名
2020-03-17
$吉利德科学(GILD)$
这货的分红啥时候到账呢?
浪得虚名
2020-03-16
$艾德韦宣集团(09919)$ $佳辰控股(01937)$ $LVJI TECH(01745)$ $新石文化(01740)$ 有打新打成我这样的吗?
浪得虚名
2020-03-13
$猎豹移动(CMCM)$
跟google的交涉怎样了!!!
浪得虚名
2020-03-09
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
大家可以去盈透下单,速度!!!
浪得虚名
2020-03-09
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
是不是可以向老虎索赔了!!!连交易都无法交易,错失良机!
浪得虚名
2020-03-04
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
大家还是丢掉幻想吧!冠状病毒的影响在中国已经完全体现出来了,中国相当于失去了两个月的时间。在美国,影响才刚刚开始。美国因为cdc要求用自己研发的检测试剂去检测,导致到现在为止只做了很少人的检测。因为他的试剂有问题,要回收再修正,而且量也很少。所以美国的确诊数绝对不止现在公布的122例。从其死亡9人,按2%死亡率推算,少也有500人,而一般估计现在有上千例了。其在检测应对上应该是耽误了两个星期的时间,导致美国专家自己都认为美国的社区爆发是不可避免的了。从技术分析上说,特斯拉前期涨得太猛,已经超出它的价值范围。在大盘不好的情况下,它肯定是首当其冲受到最大压力的。这就是近期我们看到的它跌比大盘跌得厉害,涨又比大盘涨得少的原因了。近期对特斯拉以致其它股票的操作应该是等反弹退出观望,毕竟现在有太多不确定性。留得青山在,不怕没柴烧!
浪得虚名
2020-03-03
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
我可以说我用365块把老虎股价推高了4个点不[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]
浪得虚名
2020-03-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
没人关注特斯拉中国减配造假吗?感觉要完蛋!
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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[笑哭] ","listText":"被迫表态了[捂脸] [笑哭] ","text":"被迫表态了[捂脸] [笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958856268","repostId":"2040129742","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2040129742","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1591232492,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2040129742?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-04 09:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"汇丰王冬胜:香港国家安全立法可为港带来长远繁荣稳定","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2040129742","media":"AAFN","summary":"据《新华社》报道,香港总商会主席、汇丰控股 旗下汇丰银行副主席兼行政总裁王冬胜接受专访时表示,对於香港国家安全立法,香港商界十分关心,他接触了很多商会同仁,绝大多数认为这可以确保香港继续成为国际金融","content":"<html><body><p>据《新华社》报道,香港总商会主席、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00005\">汇丰控股</a> 旗下<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>银行副主席兼行政总裁王冬胜接受专访时表示,对於香港国家安全立法,香港商界十分关心,他接触了很多商会同仁,绝大多数认为这可以确保香港继续成为国际金融中心。作为一个国际城市,稳定最为重要,稳定是一切发展的基础和前提。香港商界普遍认为,香港国家安全立法从长远而言能够为香港带来稳定,并希望香港国家安全立法可以为香港带来长远的繁荣稳定。对美国宣布将对香港实施制裁,王冬胜说,香港商界反对外国对香港实施任何制裁,这种做法只会不必要地加深在港运营的本地和外国企业所面对的困局,指制裁不仅伤害香港,也伤害美国自身,还会伤害整个亚太地区,特别是新冠肺炎疫情正在对全世界经济带来打击,大家应该同舟共济,共同提振经济,而不是相互伤害。此外,汇丰中国微信公众号刊登王冬胜日前到「撑国安立法」的街站签名;汇丰重申在「一国两制」的原则下,尊重和支持所有稳定香港社会秩序、振兴经济繁荣发展的法律。汇丰始终认为,稳定的环境是香港作为国际金融中心长期经济复苏的关键,将继续为香港的经济复苏和繁荣发展作出贡献。(wl/da)~阿思达克财经新闻网址: www.aastocks.com\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t </p></body></html>","source":"aastocks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>汇丰王冬胜:香港国家安全立法可为港带来长远繁荣稳定</title>\n<style 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旗下汇丰银行副主席兼行政总裁王冬胜接受专访时表示,对於香港国家安全立法,香港商界十分关心,他接触了很多商会同仁,绝大多数认为这可以确保香港继续成为国际金融中心。作为一个国际城市,稳定最为重要,稳定是一切发展的基础和前提。香港商界普遍认为,香港国家安全立法从长远而言能够为香港带来稳定,并希望香港国家安全立法可以为香港带来长远的繁荣稳定。对美国宣布将对香港...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.aastocks.com/apps/data/iphone/news/newscontent.aspx?newsid=NOW.1019405&style=5&chgstyle=1&categoryid=stock&width=320&market_id=hk&fontary=3&platform=iPhone&language=sc&isfirstreq=1&sourceid=aafn&datatype=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b5d60c72c5bab028f3d7d10da10eef2","relate_stocks":{"HSBA.UK":"汇丰控股有限公司","00005":"汇丰控股","03143":"华夏香港银行股","HSBC":"汇丰"},"source_url":"http://www.aastocks.com/apps/data/iphone/news/newscontent.aspx?newsid=NOW.1019405&style=5&chgstyle=1&categoryid=stock&width=320&market_id=hk&fontary=3&platform=iPhone&language=sc&isfirstreq=1&sourceid=aafn&datatype=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/51f6b9126f36f92bbf92982596066e5a","article_id":"2040129742","content_text":"据《新华社》报道,香港总商会主席、汇丰控股 旗下汇丰银行副主席兼行政总裁王冬胜接受专访时表示,对於香港国家安全立法,香港商界十分关心,他接触了很多商会同仁,绝大多数认为这可以确保香港继续成为国际金融中心。作为一个国际城市,稳定最为重要,稳定是一切发展的基础和前提。香港商界普遍认为,香港国家安全立法从长远而言能够为香港带来稳定,并希望香港国家安全立法可以为香港带来长远的繁荣稳定。对美国宣布将对香港实施制裁,王冬胜说,香港商界反对外国对香港实施任何制裁,这种做法只会不必要地加深在港运营的本地和外国企业所面对的困局,指制裁不仅伤害香港,也伤害美国自身,还会伤害整个亚太地区,特别是新冠肺炎疫情正在对全世界经济带来打击,大家应该同舟共济,共同提振经济,而不是相互伤害。此外,汇丰中国微信公众号刊登王冬胜日前到「撑国安立法」的街站签名;汇丰重申在「一国两制」的原则下,尊重和支持所有稳定香港社会秩序、振兴经济繁荣发展的法律。汇丰始终认为,稳定的环境是香港作为国际金融中心长期经济复苏的关键,将继续为香港的经济复苏和繁荣发展作出贡献。(wl/da)~阿思达克财经新闻网址: 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11:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"港股恒指大跌:小米跌逾6% 腾讯跌逾3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2037443620","media":"新浪科技","summary":"新浪科技讯 5月22日午间消息,港股持续走弱,恒指跌幅扩大至4%,刷新4月6日以来低位。截至发稿,小米集团跌6.29%报11.900港元,市值2862.74亿港元;腾讯跌3.5%报418.200港元,","content":"<html><body><img src=\"http://image.sinajs.cn/newchart/hk_stock/min_660/01810.gif\"/><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>科技讯 5月22日午间消息,港股持续走弱,恒指跌幅扩大至4%,刷新4月6日以来低位。截至发稿,小米集团跌6.29%报11.900港元,市值2862.74亿港元;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>跌3.5%报418.200港元,市值39951.49亿港元。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/transform/170/w630h340/20200522/9e7f-itvqccc6017729.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/transform/166/w630h336/20200522/a6a6-itvqccc6038991.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股恒指大跌:小米跌逾6% 腾讯跌逾3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股恒指大跌:小米跌逾6% 腾讯跌逾3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-22 11:36 北京时间 <a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://tech.sina.com.cn/i/2020-05-22/doc-iircuyvi4430485.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>新浪科技讯 5月22日午间消息,港股持续走弱,恒指跌幅扩大至4%,刷新4月6日以来低位。截至发稿,小米集团跌6.29%报11.900港元,市值2862.74亿港元;腾讯跌3.5%报418.200港元,市值39951.49亿港元。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://tech.sina.com.cn/i/2020-05-22/doc-iircuyvi4430485.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/523577f376ad45e2d0b28eb9173ccb28","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF","02833":"恒指ETF","01810":"小米集团-W","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","00700":"腾讯控股","HSI":"恒生指数","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://tech.sina.com.cn/i/2020-05-22/doc-iircuyvi4430485.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2037443620","content_text":"新浪科技讯 5月22日午间消息,港股持续走弱,恒指跌幅扩大至4%,刷新4月6日以来低位。截至发稿,小米集团跌6.29%报11.900港元,市值2862.74亿港元;腾讯跌3.5%报418.200港元,市值39951.49亿港元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":924871369,"gmtCreate":1588304933051,"gmtModify":1704367324251,"author":{"id":"3450302895885314","authorId":"3450302895885314","name":"浪得虚名","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b552a0ba3b32613dc207bcaa82ddfd8","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450302895885314","authorIdStr":"3450302895885314"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>51开市吗?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>51开市吗?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$51开市吗?$特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/924871369","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925972875,"gmtCreate":1587746034797,"gmtModify":1704365539054,"author":{"id":"3450302895885314","authorId":"3450302895885314","name":"浪得虚名","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b552a0ba3b32613dc207bcaa82ddfd8","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450302895885314","authorIdStr":"3450302895885314"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"又长又臭,靠标题就知道不是什么好东西","listText":"又长又臭,靠标题就知道不是什么好东西","text":"又长又臭,靠标题就知道不是什么好东西","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925972875","repostId":"1170988249","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170988249","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1587715274,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170988249?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-04-24 16:01","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"鲁政委:负油价可能是美国金融战新武器","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170988249","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"负油价或许是西方世界的联手反击。“没有永远的朋友,只有永远的利益”,这句话用在描述国际关系变迁时再合适不过。近几年来,美国与沙特的关系似乎不再亲密如前,而美国对伊朗和委内瑞拉制裁的力度也高于以往。在美国成为能源大国的情况下,油价对其与以往的含义也大相径庭。这一切表象背后,都与原油产业格局的变迁密切相关。","content":"<blockquote>\n 摘要:负油价对美国影响有限,美国页岩油企业已进行大量套保,沙特和俄罗斯则没有较为完善的套保操作。负油价或许是西方世界的联手反击。\n</blockquote>\n<p>“没有永远的朋友,只有永远的利益”,这句话用在描述国际关系变迁时再合适不过。近几年来,美国与沙特的关系似乎不再亲密如前,而美国对伊朗和委内瑞拉制裁的力度也高于以往。在美国成为能源大国的情况下,油价对其与以往的含义也大相径庭。这一切表象背后,都与原油产业格局的变迁密切相关。</p>\n<h3><b>一、美国与产油国的蜜月期</b></h3>\n<p><b>1.1 与中东产油国建立密切联系</b></p>\n<p>20世纪70年代之前,美国是全球原油产量最高的国家,连续多年原油产量全球第一,排名第二的是当时的前苏联,第三、第四名分别为委内瑞拉和科威特,而沙特原油产量在当时只排名全球第五,而且只有美国当时产量的25%。20世纪四五十年代,中东地区两次石油资源的大发现,使得这一地区在后来一跃成为全球最受瞩目的原油出口地。1965年,现任OPEC成员国中,委内瑞拉产量位居第一,科威特、沙特以及伊朗产量基本相当。进入20世纪70年代之后,沙特产量快速增长,一跃成为OPEC成员国中产量最大的国家。而且正值当时全球第一大原油需求国美国国内产量见顶回落以及需求大爆发之时,对于进口的需求激增。美国亟需寻找外部石油供给来源,而当时正处于美苏对峙的阶段,所以美国的关注对象自然而然就落在了当时新崛起的中东产油国。</p>\n<p>同时二十世纪七十年代,布雷顿森林体系解体,石油美元体系应运而生。上世纪七十年代金本位终结之后,正值西方世界石油需求蓬勃增长的时期,时任美国总统尼克松同意向沙特阿拉伯提供军火和保护,条件是沙特所有的石油交易都要用美元结算。由于沙特是OPEC中最大的产油国和全球最大的石油出口国,其他国家也很快采用美元进行石油交易,石油美元体系从此确立。所以在上世纪末期,沙特对于美国而言十分重要,美国也一直给予沙特军事和政治上的援助(详见图表 1至图表 4)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8d69410272d7a82f08e46b759573e7\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b80d800402eb5700dec42121d3dccf\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f080f47d10b9e2a1c46be55d7dc52541\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c15a623e7260badaaa387caed039fd63\"></p>\n<p><b>1.2 美洲内部,几大产油国保持密切合作</b></p>\n<p>除了与全球最大的原油出口国组织OPEC建立密切关系之外,自20世纪初以来美国就与当时美洲最大的原油生产国——委内瑞拉保持着密切的联系(详见图表 5)。1922年,在美国人的帮助下,委内瑞拉一个北部海岸的小城出现了第一口井喷的油井。随后,更大的惊喜从天而降—委内瑞拉被认为是世界上石油储备量最多的国家(目前依然是)。不过委内瑞拉没有自主开采的能力,其石油开采高度依赖美国。美国人帮助委内瑞拉开采出第一桶石油后,也始终没有任何放手,牢牢掌控着委内瑞拉石油开采的技术和市场。</p>\n<p>上世纪七十年代初,委内瑞拉是美国第二大原油进口来源地,加拿大是美国当时第一大原油进口来源地。1976年,沙特超过加拿大成为美国第一大原油进口国,并且在1976至1982年以及1988至1995年间保持美国第一大原油进口国的地位。1996至1998年间,委内瑞拉是美国原油进口第一大国。1998年至今,加拿大重归首位。不过在2008年之前,虽然美国从这三个国家进口占比会有波动,但基本均维持10%以上占比。2008年之后,美国从加拿大进口占比直线提升,其余两国均呈现不同程度下降。2019年,美国从加拿大原油进口占比48.61%,墨西哥占比7.15%,而沙特和委内瑞拉分别下滑至5.83%和1.01%。</p>\n<p>上世纪七十年代至1999年查韦斯就任委内瑞拉总统之前,美国和委内瑞拉之间维持了较好的外交关系。1999年,查韦斯就任委内瑞拉总统,其在执政过程中不仅否定了美国多年来在拉美全力推行的所谓民主和自由化的政治、经济模式,并且对美国在国际事务中表现出的霸权主义进行了强烈批评和对抗。这些举动令美国政府大为恼怒。不过在政治分歧尖锐的背景下,石油仍是当时维系委美两国关系的最重要的纽带。当时通过北美自由贸易协定,美国已经掌握西半球的两大石油生产中心加拿大和墨西哥。委内瑞拉当时是西半球第二大石油生产国,美国第四大原油供应商之一(分别是加拿大、沙特、墨西哥和委内瑞拉,四者占比当时相近)。委美两国在能源问题上相互依赖,任何一方采取极端措施都会对双方造成巨大损失。2003年2月初,反对派发动的工人大罢工刚结束,委内瑞拉就完全回复了对美国的正常石油供应。罗德里格斯外长也在2005年明确指出,委内瑞拉在向其他国家出口石油的同时,依然会保障对美国的石油供应。委内瑞拉和美国的关系,虽然相比以往出现裂痕,但总体仍能维持。</p>\n<p>而伊朗和俄罗斯,在美国的进口占比中一直很小。1978年美国和伊朗反目之前,美国还曾自伊朗进口过原油,但此后进口量几乎均维持在0值附近。而在前苏联时代,美国自苏联进口的原油屈指可数;2002年之后,进口量有所提升,但总体仍持低位(详见图表 6)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bc00cf46c6b691ffb41a307a5161833\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9423b3aa4a25af2898681ccd65ef7df0\"></p>\n<h3>二、页岩油崛起,美国能源关系网变迁中</h3>\n<p><b>2.1 北美原油产量激增,对沙特依赖度下降</b></p>\n<p>从1.2章节美国分国别原油进口量中可以看出,1970年以来的美国原油进口格局在2009年之后开始发生明显变化,这一时点正对应美国页岩油产量崛起、且同时期加拿大原油产量也开始快速增长之际。2008年后美国和加拿大原油产量一同快速增长,使得美国对于北美外的沙特和委内瑞拉依赖程度下降,而北美三国间的原油依存度增强。不过因为美国的原油基本为轻质原油[1],需要和中质原油和重质原油混合后才能进入炼油装置。所以虽然美国2016年出口禁令解除以来出口量快速增长,并且自2017年以来原油净进口量快速下降,但原油进口量并没有呈现出同等程度的下降。这就是因为其国内生产油种品质与进口油种品质的结构性差异。而且虽然美国已经成为石化液体的净出口国,其对于中质和重质原油的进口需求仍将长期存在(详见图表 7和图表 8)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f35b08df6c3dc16d14c66b13a65d5783\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b82a9e56b9185eedad665953a127243\"></p>\n<p>从原油品质上而言,加拿大和委内瑞拉的原油均偏重质原油,在使用上能进行一定的替代。故而美国可以在基本不进口委内瑞拉原油的情况下维持炼厂的正常生产。而中东地区中质原油居多,而且沙特的原油品种特别齐全,从轻质到重质一应俱全,且原油品质较好,加拿大和墨西哥尚难完全替代。加之中东地区在全球能源供应格局中举足轻重的地位,所以虽然美国从沙特原油进口量大幅下降,但仍和中东地区维持一定的稳定关系,而这也可能是此前热议的NOPEC法案迄今尚未诉诸实施的本质原因。所谓的NOPEC法案如果最终被总统签署并成为法律,将取消OPEC成员国的主权豁免权,将使成员国受到反垄断监管。不过如果美国对中东地区依赖度在未来进一步下降,则该法案通过的可能性将逐渐增大。</p>\n<p>该法案早在2000年就被提出,随后106届到112届的每届国会都会再度提出一次。在2005年的109届国会中,参议院在能源政策法案里通过了该法案的一个版本,但最后这一部分被丢弃,没有成为立法。在2007年110届国会中,众议院以345:72的优势通过了NOPEC法案,参议院也以70:23的比例同意将该法案附加进当时即将进入投票的另一部能源立法中。然而布什政府持续行使否决权施压,并提出就算NOPEC法案终成为法律,司法部也会启动诉讼。2008年,该法案作为天然气价格减免法案(Gas Price Relief Act)的一部分再次在众议院获得通过,但由于布什政府坚定的反对态度,该法案未能进入参议院投票,在随后几年更是从来没有进入过投票环节。</p>\n<p>特朗普上任之后,近两年NOPEC法案再度被提及,并在众议院获得了通过,但目前仍被搁置。美国现在尚未完全脱离与中东地区的关系或是重要原因。不过2008年次贷危机后,一方面可能因为美国经济遭遇重创,军费支出骤减;另一方面,美国对中东地区依赖度下降,美国军事势力在中东削减,而俄罗斯有所增强,这也是我们看到近几年中东动乱频发的原因。</p>\n<p><b>2.2 沙特政局变迁,加剧美国不满</b></p>\n<p>2008至2016年间美国与沙特和委内瑞拉关系整体仍较为稳定。2016年后,美国与沙特关系相较之前更为动荡。美国方面,较为强调产业回流美国的特朗普总统上台。同时2015年,现任沙特国王萨勒曼上台后,也开始了一系列内部争权斗争,而一切斗争都是为了改变沙特目前“兄终弟及”的国王继承制度,为他儿子小萨勒曼上台扫平障碍。</p>\n<p>此前沙特建国国王伊本·沙特为了避免他死后的兄弟王位之争,建立了沙特王位的“兄终弟及”制度,同时国防部、内政部、国民警卫队这些重要部门也由不同兄弟掌权,相互之间形成权利制衡。1953年,伊本·沙特逝世,此后数十年虽然沙特国内难免王位之争,但整体仍能在各派系兄弟间形成权力制衡。老萨勒曼就任后,沙特国内的权利斗争继续,并在2017年后达到高潮。2017年6月,沙特国王突然颁布法令,宣布撤除小纳伊夫(老国王萨勒曼亲侄子、当时掌握内政部)所有职务,取而代之的是小萨勒曼。然后在2017年11月,逮捕当时掌管国民警卫队的小阿卜杜拉。至此国防部、内政部、国民警卫队这三支沙特最重要的军事力量,全部集中到萨勒曼父子手中。萨勒曼父子成为了伊本·沙特之后,沙特王国权力最大的统治者。此后2017至2018年,萨勒曼父子先后抓捕几十名王子和上百名官员,反贪风暴总共搜剿出多达6000亿美元的财产,供小萨勒曼用来实行大规模的经济改革计划。不过老萨勒曼弟弟艾哈曼得因为逃亡伦敦,暂未被抓捕,并在伦敦媒体面前,公开谴责萨勒曼父子。</p>\n<p>萨勒曼父子的大权独揽,让美国人感到不安。特别是在2018年小萨勒曼派杀手杀死记者卡舒吉后,美国对沙特的不满一时达到顶峰。事件爆出后,小萨勒曼遭遇到了国际社会广泛谴责,他也紧急向美国下了1100亿美元军火订单,并在美国要求之下大量增产打压油价,是造成2018年第四季度油价暴跌的重要原因之一。</p>\n<p>同时在卡舒吉事件后数天,美英政府就将艾哈迈德送回沙特国内,并要求小萨勒曼保证其人身安全。西方政府希望艾哈迈德能用老萨勒曼亲弟弟、小萨勒曼叔叔的身份,控制住沙特政权的脱轨行为。此后萨勒曼父子在国内的行动沉寂了一年半载。不过2020年欧美疫情爆发期间,3月6日小萨勒曼趁欧美无暇估计沙特之际,抓捕了其亲叔叔。并且借着其和俄罗斯的价格战,向全球金融市场投下一枚炸弹,欧美更无暇顾及其抓捕艾哈迈德的行为。而谈及俄罗斯本次价格战的行为,需要注意的一点是2020年2月18日,美国政府宣布了针对俄罗斯最大的石油公司Rosneft的重大新制裁措施,原因是该公司帮助委内瑞拉出口石油(委内瑞拉被美国制裁后,基本只有俄罗斯石油公司敢于帮其出口原油)。所以2020年3月俄罗斯在需求骤降的时候不再愿意减产,或也是对美国的反击。</p>\n<p>在此背景下,再来看4月13日达成的历史最大规模的减产协议,背后的图景可能就更为清晰。沙特这次不遗余力达成减产,一来应是不希望美国追究其抓捕艾哈迈德的行为,二来也想寻求美国更多的庇护。而俄罗斯,或许会将解除对Rosneft制裁作为交换条件。而作为此次减产谈判中最大的绊脚石墨西哥,在谈判中美国非但没有指责,反而最后愿意帮其承担25万桶/天的减产,这从两者石油贸易的密切程度就可以理解。</p>\n<h3>三、负油价:美国金融战新武器?</h3>\n<p>近几日原油市场的波动让美国和沙特之间关系大不如前的图景展现的异常清晰。</p>\n<p>从国家财政平衡成本而言,沙特高于俄罗斯。美国外交关系协会的数据显示,随着沙特近几年国内致力于产业多元化的改革,2018年来沙特的财政盈亏平衡成本有所下降,从2018年的88美元/桶下降至2020年的76美元/桶(预估)。其外部平衡成本[2]自2016年起就基本维持在48至50美元/桶。而在2014至2015年油价暴跌带来的新兴市场危机之后,俄罗斯也致力于国内的改革。根据俄罗斯Economic Expert Group的统计数据显示,其财政平衡油价从2015年起出现显著下降。2019年时,这一数据已经从2015年的65.6美元/桶降至49.2美元/桶(详见图表 9和图表 10)。所以可以发现2017年沙特和俄罗斯联合减产以来,减产谈判时,沙特对于减产的态度要远比俄罗斯积极。</p>\n<p>对于美国页岩油行业而言,半周期成本是其较为敏感的成本水平,近几年基本维持在40至45美元/桶左右,而2019年开采新储量的成本由2018年的55美元/桶上升至59.5美元/桶(包含企业全部运营成本)。所以在20美元/桶以下的低油价下,从长期稳定运营的角度而言,这三者无一能承受。沙特和俄罗斯有国家财政储备来维持一段时期内的运营(1年左右),而页岩油虽然没有国家财力这个后盾,目前也处于财务状况极度恶化的状况,但其(包括墨西哥)采用在期货市场做空的方式能够得到一定的对冲。截至2019年第四季度的页岩油财报显示,页岩油企业2020年产量平均套保率为61%,平均套保成本58.3美元/桶。并且据了解在4月初WTI 30美元/桶左右的时候页岩油和墨西哥或仍加仓了其套保头寸,墨西哥更是基本实现了完全套保,而沙特和俄罗斯并没有较为完善的套保操作。在油价暴跌甚至跌为负值的情况下,套保头寸盈利将非常可观,而沙特和俄罗斯或将承受较大的压力。</p>\n<p>在此情况下,再来分析目前负油价的出现,所蕴含的意义可能更为深远。北京时间4月16日(周四),芝加哥商业交易所(CME)表示将修改程序规则,允许负油价出现。4月17日,WTI5月期货合约开始快速下跌。4月20日,是WTI5月合约到期前最后一个交易日,当天WTI油价首次出现负值。4月22日,洲际交易所(ICE)表示正为布伦特原油合约交易价格为负做准备,同日芝商所(CME)表示4月22日起将允许行权价为负的石油期权上市。3月由沙特和俄罗斯挑起的价格战,造成全球金融动荡。而本次负油价的出现,或是西方世界的联手反击。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dce187b1ce5235df60da532405adb938\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96310dbfa61b3294400517468db9849e\"></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>鲁政委:负油价可能是美国金融战新武器</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲁政委:负油价可能是美国金融战新武器\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-24 16:01 北京时间 <a href=https://vip.jianshiapp.com/articles/3591234#from=ios?ivk=1><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要:负油价对美国影响有限,美国页岩油企业已进行大量套保,沙特和俄罗斯则没有较为完善的套保操作。负油价或许是西方世界的联手反击。\n\n“没有永远的朋友,只有永远的利益”,这句话用在描述国际关系变迁时再合适不过。近几年来,美国与沙特的关系似乎不再亲密如前,而美国对伊朗和委内瑞拉制裁的力度也高于以往。在美国成为能源大国的情况下,油价对其与以往的含义也大相径庭。这一切表象背后,都与原油产业格局的变迁...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://vip.jianshiapp.com/articles/3591234#from=ios?ivk=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb72cd294c40a9e2e750a6b6127f106","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vip.jianshiapp.com/articles/3591234#from=ios?ivk=1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1170988249","content_text":"摘要:负油价对美国影响有限,美国页岩油企业已进行大量套保,沙特和俄罗斯则没有较为完善的套保操作。负油价或许是西方世界的联手反击。\n\n“没有永远的朋友,只有永远的利益”,这句话用在描述国际关系变迁时再合适不过。近几年来,美国与沙特的关系似乎不再亲密如前,而美国对伊朗和委内瑞拉制裁的力度也高于以往。在美国成为能源大国的情况下,油价对其与以往的含义也大相径庭。这一切表象背后,都与原油产业格局的变迁密切相关。\n一、美国与产油国的蜜月期\n1.1 与中东产油国建立密切联系\n20世纪70年代之前,美国是全球原油产量最高的国家,连续多年原油产量全球第一,排名第二的是当时的前苏联,第三、第四名分别为委内瑞拉和科威特,而沙特原油产量在当时只排名全球第五,而且只有美国当时产量的25%。20世纪四五十年代,中东地区两次石油资源的大发现,使得这一地区在后来一跃成为全球最受瞩目的原油出口地。1965年,现任OPEC成员国中,委内瑞拉产量位居第一,科威特、沙特以及伊朗产量基本相当。进入20世纪70年代之后,沙特产量快速增长,一跃成为OPEC成员国中产量最大的国家。而且正值当时全球第一大原油需求国美国国内产量见顶回落以及需求大爆发之时,对于进口的需求激增。美国亟需寻找外部石油供给来源,而当时正处于美苏对峙的阶段,所以美国的关注对象自然而然就落在了当时新崛起的中东产油国。\n同时二十世纪七十年代,布雷顿森林体系解体,石油美元体系应运而生。上世纪七十年代金本位终结之后,正值西方世界石油需求蓬勃增长的时期,时任美国总统尼克松同意向沙特阿拉伯提供军火和保护,条件是沙特所有的石油交易都要用美元结算。由于沙特是OPEC中最大的产油国和全球最大的石油出口国,其他国家也很快采用美元进行石油交易,石油美元体系从此确立。所以在上世纪末期,沙特对于美国而言十分重要,美国也一直给予沙特军事和政治上的援助(详见图表 1至图表 4)。\n\n\n\n\n1.2 美洲内部,几大产油国保持密切合作\n除了与全球最大的原油出口国组织OPEC建立密切关系之外,自20世纪初以来美国就与当时美洲最大的原油生产国——委内瑞拉保持着密切的联系(详见图表 5)。1922年,在美国人的帮助下,委内瑞拉一个北部海岸的小城出现了第一口井喷的油井。随后,更大的惊喜从天而降—委内瑞拉被认为是世界上石油储备量最多的国家(目前依然是)。不过委内瑞拉没有自主开采的能力,其石油开采高度依赖美国。美国人帮助委内瑞拉开采出第一桶石油后,也始终没有任何放手,牢牢掌控着委内瑞拉石油开采的技术和市场。\n上世纪七十年代初,委内瑞拉是美国第二大原油进口来源地,加拿大是美国当时第一大原油进口来源地。1976年,沙特超过加拿大成为美国第一大原油进口国,并且在1976至1982年以及1988至1995年间保持美国第一大原油进口国的地位。1996至1998年间,委内瑞拉是美国原油进口第一大国。1998年至今,加拿大重归首位。不过在2008年之前,虽然美国从这三个国家进口占比会有波动,但基本均维持10%以上占比。2008年之后,美国从加拿大进口占比直线提升,其余两国均呈现不同程度下降。2019年,美国从加拿大原油进口占比48.61%,墨西哥占比7.15%,而沙特和委内瑞拉分别下滑至5.83%和1.01%。\n上世纪七十年代至1999年查韦斯就任委内瑞拉总统之前,美国和委内瑞拉之间维持了较好的外交关系。1999年,查韦斯就任委内瑞拉总统,其在执政过程中不仅否定了美国多年来在拉美全力推行的所谓民主和自由化的政治、经济模式,并且对美国在国际事务中表现出的霸权主义进行了强烈批评和对抗。这些举动令美国政府大为恼怒。不过在政治分歧尖锐的背景下,石油仍是当时维系委美两国关系的最重要的纽带。当时通过北美自由贸易协定,美国已经掌握西半球的两大石油生产中心加拿大和墨西哥。委内瑞拉当时是西半球第二大石油生产国,美国第四大原油供应商之一(分别是加拿大、沙特、墨西哥和委内瑞拉,四者占比当时相近)。委美两国在能源问题上相互依赖,任何一方采取极端措施都会对双方造成巨大损失。2003年2月初,反对派发动的工人大罢工刚结束,委内瑞拉就完全回复了对美国的正常石油供应。罗德里格斯外长也在2005年明确指出,委内瑞拉在向其他国家出口石油的同时,依然会保障对美国的石油供应。委内瑞拉和美国的关系,虽然相比以往出现裂痕,但总体仍能维持。\n而伊朗和俄罗斯,在美国的进口占比中一直很小。1978年美国和伊朗反目之前,美国还曾自伊朗进口过原油,但此后进口量几乎均维持在0值附近。而在前苏联时代,美国自苏联进口的原油屈指可数;2002年之后,进口量有所提升,但总体仍持低位(详见图表 6)。\n\n\n二、页岩油崛起,美国能源关系网变迁中\n2.1 北美原油产量激增,对沙特依赖度下降\n从1.2章节美国分国别原油进口量中可以看出,1970年以来的美国原油进口格局在2009年之后开始发生明显变化,这一时点正对应美国页岩油产量崛起、且同时期加拿大原油产量也开始快速增长之际。2008年后美国和加拿大原油产量一同快速增长,使得美国对于北美外的沙特和委内瑞拉依赖程度下降,而北美三国间的原油依存度增强。不过因为美国的原油基本为轻质原油[1],需要和中质原油和重质原油混合后才能进入炼油装置。所以虽然美国2016年出口禁令解除以来出口量快速增长,并且自2017年以来原油净进口量快速下降,但原油进口量并没有呈现出同等程度的下降。这就是因为其国内生产油种品质与进口油种品质的结构性差异。而且虽然美国已经成为石化液体的净出口国,其对于中质和重质原油的进口需求仍将长期存在(详见图表 7和图表 8)。\n\n\n从原油品质上而言,加拿大和委内瑞拉的原油均偏重质原油,在使用上能进行一定的替代。故而美国可以在基本不进口委内瑞拉原油的情况下维持炼厂的正常生产。而中东地区中质原油居多,而且沙特的原油品种特别齐全,从轻质到重质一应俱全,且原油品质较好,加拿大和墨西哥尚难完全替代。加之中东地区在全球能源供应格局中举足轻重的地位,所以虽然美国从沙特原油进口量大幅下降,但仍和中东地区维持一定的稳定关系,而这也可能是此前热议的NOPEC法案迄今尚未诉诸实施的本质原因。所谓的NOPEC法案如果最终被总统签署并成为法律,将取消OPEC成员国的主权豁免权,将使成员国受到反垄断监管。不过如果美国对中东地区依赖度在未来进一步下降,则该法案通过的可能性将逐渐增大。\n该法案早在2000年就被提出,随后106届到112届的每届国会都会再度提出一次。在2005年的109届国会中,参议院在能源政策法案里通过了该法案的一个版本,但最后这一部分被丢弃,没有成为立法。在2007年110届国会中,众议院以345:72的优势通过了NOPEC法案,参议院也以70:23的比例同意将该法案附加进当时即将进入投票的另一部能源立法中。然而布什政府持续行使否决权施压,并提出就算NOPEC法案终成为法律,司法部也会启动诉讼。2008年,该法案作为天然气价格减免法案(Gas Price Relief Act)的一部分再次在众议院获得通过,但由于布什政府坚定的反对态度,该法案未能进入参议院投票,在随后几年更是从来没有进入过投票环节。\n特朗普上任之后,近两年NOPEC法案再度被提及,并在众议院获得了通过,但目前仍被搁置。美国现在尚未完全脱离与中东地区的关系或是重要原因。不过2008年次贷危机后,一方面可能因为美国经济遭遇重创,军费支出骤减;另一方面,美国对中东地区依赖度下降,美国军事势力在中东削减,而俄罗斯有所增强,这也是我们看到近几年中东动乱频发的原因。\n2.2 沙特政局变迁,加剧美国不满\n2008至2016年间美国与沙特和委内瑞拉关系整体仍较为稳定。2016年后,美国与沙特关系相较之前更为动荡。美国方面,较为强调产业回流美国的特朗普总统上台。同时2015年,现任沙特国王萨勒曼上台后,也开始了一系列内部争权斗争,而一切斗争都是为了改变沙特目前“兄终弟及”的国王继承制度,为他儿子小萨勒曼上台扫平障碍。\n此前沙特建国国王伊本·沙特为了避免他死后的兄弟王位之争,建立了沙特王位的“兄终弟及”制度,同时国防部、内政部、国民警卫队这些重要部门也由不同兄弟掌权,相互之间形成权利制衡。1953年,伊本·沙特逝世,此后数十年虽然沙特国内难免王位之争,但整体仍能在各派系兄弟间形成权力制衡。老萨勒曼就任后,沙特国内的权利斗争继续,并在2017年后达到高潮。2017年6月,沙特国王突然颁布法令,宣布撤除小纳伊夫(老国王萨勒曼亲侄子、当时掌握内政部)所有职务,取而代之的是小萨勒曼。然后在2017年11月,逮捕当时掌管国民警卫队的小阿卜杜拉。至此国防部、内政部、国民警卫队这三支沙特最重要的军事力量,全部集中到萨勒曼父子手中。萨勒曼父子成为了伊本·沙特之后,沙特王国权力最大的统治者。此后2017至2018年,萨勒曼父子先后抓捕几十名王子和上百名官员,反贪风暴总共搜剿出多达6000亿美元的财产,供小萨勒曼用来实行大规模的经济改革计划。不过老萨勒曼弟弟艾哈曼得因为逃亡伦敦,暂未被抓捕,并在伦敦媒体面前,公开谴责萨勒曼父子。\n萨勒曼父子的大权独揽,让美国人感到不安。特别是在2018年小萨勒曼派杀手杀死记者卡舒吉后,美国对沙特的不满一时达到顶峰。事件爆出后,小萨勒曼遭遇到了国际社会广泛谴责,他也紧急向美国下了1100亿美元军火订单,并在美国要求之下大量增产打压油价,是造成2018年第四季度油价暴跌的重要原因之一。\n同时在卡舒吉事件后数天,美英政府就将艾哈迈德送回沙特国内,并要求小萨勒曼保证其人身安全。西方政府希望艾哈迈德能用老萨勒曼亲弟弟、小萨勒曼叔叔的身份,控制住沙特政权的脱轨行为。此后萨勒曼父子在国内的行动沉寂了一年半载。不过2020年欧美疫情爆发期间,3月6日小萨勒曼趁欧美无暇估计沙特之际,抓捕了其亲叔叔。并且借着其和俄罗斯的价格战,向全球金融市场投下一枚炸弹,欧美更无暇顾及其抓捕艾哈迈德的行为。而谈及俄罗斯本次价格战的行为,需要注意的一点是2020年2月18日,美国政府宣布了针对俄罗斯最大的石油公司Rosneft的重大新制裁措施,原因是该公司帮助委内瑞拉出口石油(委内瑞拉被美国制裁后,基本只有俄罗斯石油公司敢于帮其出口原油)。所以2020年3月俄罗斯在需求骤降的时候不再愿意减产,或也是对美国的反击。\n在此背景下,再来看4月13日达成的历史最大规模的减产协议,背后的图景可能就更为清晰。沙特这次不遗余力达成减产,一来应是不希望美国追究其抓捕艾哈迈德的行为,二来也想寻求美国更多的庇护。而俄罗斯,或许会将解除对Rosneft制裁作为交换条件。而作为此次减产谈判中最大的绊脚石墨西哥,在谈判中美国非但没有指责,反而最后愿意帮其承担25万桶/天的减产,这从两者石油贸易的密切程度就可以理解。\n三、负油价:美国金融战新武器?\n近几日原油市场的波动让美国和沙特之间关系大不如前的图景展现的异常清晰。\n从国家财政平衡成本而言,沙特高于俄罗斯。美国外交关系协会的数据显示,随着沙特近几年国内致力于产业多元化的改革,2018年来沙特的财政盈亏平衡成本有所下降,从2018年的88美元/桶下降至2020年的76美元/桶(预估)。其外部平衡成本[2]自2016年起就基本维持在48至50美元/桶。而在2014至2015年油价暴跌带来的新兴市场危机之后,俄罗斯也致力于国内的改革。根据俄罗斯Economic Expert Group的统计数据显示,其财政平衡油价从2015年起出现显著下降。2019年时,这一数据已经从2015年的65.6美元/桶降至49.2美元/桶(详见图表 9和图表 10)。所以可以发现2017年沙特和俄罗斯联合减产以来,减产谈判时,沙特对于减产的态度要远比俄罗斯积极。\n对于美国页岩油行业而言,半周期成本是其较为敏感的成本水平,近几年基本维持在40至45美元/桶左右,而2019年开采新储量的成本由2018年的55美元/桶上升至59.5美元/桶(包含企业全部运营成本)。所以在20美元/桶以下的低油价下,从长期稳定运营的角度而言,这三者无一能承受。沙特和俄罗斯有国家财政储备来维持一段时期内的运营(1年左右),而页岩油虽然没有国家财力这个后盾,目前也处于财务状况极度恶化的状况,但其(包括墨西哥)采用在期货市场做空的方式能够得到一定的对冲。截至2019年第四季度的页岩油财报显示,页岩油企业2020年产量平均套保率为61%,平均套保成本58.3美元/桶。并且据了解在4月初WTI 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