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虎梨
伺机而动
IP属地:四川
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虎梨
2022-01-31
等烧菜上桌的空档涂了一张,祝各位财迷来年虎虎生威,财运如虎添翼!财迷梦快来接好运啦🍀🐯
@小虎活动
@小虎活动:【新春大放送】虎年画虎,吉祥幸福
虎梨
2021-07-06
$微博(WB)$
传言不实可以有很多解读什么叫传言不实 私有化还是价格区间,其实消息还是没坐实,总还有人有期待。
虎梨
2021-03-13
$新东方(EDU)$
老朋友了,从来没让我失望过。[害羞] [害羞] [害羞]
虎梨
2021-03-05
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
为什么期货只跌了0.3 升水代表什么预期?有大佬给科普下吗?
虎梨
2021-02-27
收到啦,实物返图,太可可爱爱的,之后拿来日常喝咖啡☕️ it’s never too late to invest!祝大家新年发大财.[财迷]
虎梨
2021-02-25
$BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-CL B(BRK.B)$
放一部分杠杆的仓位在这边,本金用来做波段,利润再填回这边,放心
虎梨
2021-02-24
2021.02.24 复盘笔记 by 小金手梨多多
$纳指ETF(QQQ)$
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
主
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
一周前开始准备对冲,准备等qqq 或者spy再靠近通道顶部一点,挂了几个put都差一点没买到[无语] 事实证明贪心想吃完鱼头鱼尾终究是要打脸的,熬不了夜,晚上不看盘,一晚上还接了几个早就设好的飞刀[无语] 好在不追热点,几个重仓都拉回来了,今天只能减仓对冲了总结下,1 嗅觉有了行动力得跟上[傲娇] 2不追热点,寻找反转趋势的思路是适合自己的,继续坚持[微笑] 3 不要贪心,放弃鱼头鱼尾不可惜,小钱买机会成本[微笑]
2021.02.24 复盘笔记 by 小金手梨多多
虎梨
2021-02-24
$迪士尼(DIS)$
$微博(WB)$
这两货经受住了考验,微博那一排下影线,如果大趋势处改天换ri,就还能有动力
虎梨
2021-02-12
$微博(WB)$
埋伏了小半年,和时间做朋友
虎梨
2020-12-09
$宝尊电商(BZUN)$
等了大半年,差不多了。
虎梨
2020-07-06
可以理解为至少值41ma?
新浪收到了初步的非约束性“私有化”要约
虎梨
2020-04-28
$OVERSTOCK PFD DIG VTG A-1(OSTKO)$
OSTK送的 美10股送一股这个,但是不在这个平台交易,再另外一个数字交易所。之前的公告我没全部看懂,好像还要除息,?谁英文好的帮忙看看? $ostk
虎梨
2020-04-17
仿佛一篇提前写好的墓志铭,市场有三个方向,不涨并不代表会跌,但是过高得估值一定会修正正常
十一张图,谈谈对一季度宏观数据与形势的一些看法
虎梨
2020-04-09
信用被透支必然会误伤一片啦,可以关注被误伤的优质企业[可爱]
虎梨
2020-04-09
$Overstock.com(OSTK)$
这个1:10是什么个分配方式啊 有点没看懂呢[捂脸]
虎梨
2020-03-31
$阿莱技术公司(ALGN)$
惹上官司了 不知道财报出来会怎么样
虎梨
2018-01-31
逆势
$杜克能源(DUK)$ 逆势暴力拉升,有其他人买吗?这个超跌好久了
逆势
虎梨
2018-01-23
什么个情况?
$Pretium Resources Inc(PVG)$ 看图还走的不错啊,三角待突破,又没财报。怎么就跌成这样
什么个情况?
虎梨
2018-01-19
市盈率200
$微博(WB)$ 200的pe这的多少年才能收回成本啊
市盈率200
虎梨
2018-01-10
$易车网(BITA)$ 说下一鸡三吃的思路,我36建仓正股,12月初跌到29很多小伙伴纷纷下车。研究了下图形发现有几个长期的有力支撑位,应该不会继续跌。加上说基本面没有大的问题(价投我还没学看公司所以参考大佬的意见)。但是担心盘整浪费call时间价值,所以在30时卖了价外一档put.横盘到put快吃完时,易车碰到了重要的支撑位32 于是平仓put卖入call 同时继续持有正股。 给这次操作复盘下,做的还不够的地方: 1 就是买入call没有关注IV,留意财报日期,可能花了点冤枉钱。期权性价比非常重要。 2 基本面听别的人,这点还是得自己独立分析 3 不下车的理由纯粹技术面,但没想好继续跌的止损方案,但请大佬们指正 这个方法也很适合下面几个我比较熟悉的票 $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ @$京东(JD)$ $新东方(EDU)$ 以及各种超跌反转票
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">$微博(WB)$</a>埋伏了小半年,和时间做朋友","text":"$微博(WB)$埋伏了小半年,和时间做朋友","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72629e6c4dc0366d471252a0834574aa","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388569757","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":392770246,"gmtCreate":1607527685985,"gmtModify":1703848510844,"author":{"id":"3442281563815389","authorId":"3442281563815389","name":"虎梨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8e5ed36b7ab356b2090a0f904528b3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3442281563815389","authorIdStr":"3442281563815389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZUN\">$宝尊电商(BZUN)$</a>等了大半年,差不多了。","listText":"<a 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20:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"新浪收到了初步的非约束性“私有化”要约","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151866521","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月6日,新浪董事会于7月6日收到New Wave MMXV Limited的初步不具约束力的私有化要约。要约显示,新浪将以41美元/股的价格私有化。新浪已组成特别委员会以评估和考虑该提案。New W","content":"<p>7月6日,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>董事会于7月6日收到New Wave MMXV Limited的初步不具约束力的私有化要约。要约显示,新浪将以41美元/股的价格私有化。新浪已组成特别委员会以评估和考虑该提案。</span></p><p><span>New Wave是一家在英属维尔京群岛注册成立的公司,由新浪董事长兼首席执行官曹国伟控制。</span></p><p><span>新浪美股盘前涨超11%,报40.8美元。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9152974f8027592d7c8ad03e826ef105\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2593\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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}\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n新浪收到了初步的非约束性“私有化”要约\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-07-06 20:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月6日,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>董事会于7月6日收到New Wave MMXV Limited的初步不具约束力的私有化要约。要约显示,新浪将以41美元/股的价格私有化。新浪已组成特别委员会以评估和考虑该提案。</span></p><p><span>New Wave是一家在英属维尔京群岛注册成立的公司,由新浪董事长兼首席执行官曹国伟控制。</span></p><p><span>新浪美股盘前涨超11%,报40.8美元。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9152974f8027592d7c8ad03e826ef105\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2593\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/352d7a3a4c6a568968716477a4b4108d","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151866521","content_text":"7月6日,新浪董事会于7月6日收到New Wave MMXV Limited的初步不具约束力的私有化要约。要约显示,新浪将以41美元/股的价格私有化。新浪已组成特别委员会以评估和考虑该提案。New Wave是一家在英属维尔京群岛注册成立的公司,由新浪董事长兼首席执行官曹国伟控制。新浪美股盘前涨超11%,报40.8美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925562873,"gmtCreate":1588077652192,"gmtModify":1704366313313,"author":{"id":"3442281563815389","authorId":"3442281563815389","name":"虎梨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8e5ed36b7ab356b2090a0f904528b3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3442281563815389","authorIdStr":"3442281563815389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OSTKO\">$OVERSTOCK PFD DIG VTG A-1(OSTKO)$</a>OSTK送的 美10股送一股这个,但是不在这个平台交易,再另外一个数字交易所。之前的公告我没全部看懂,好像还要除息,?谁英文好的帮忙看看? $ostk","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OSTKO\">$OVERSTOCK PFD DIG VTG A-1(OSTKO)$</a>OSTK送的 美10股送一股这个,但是不在这个平台交易,再另外一个数字交易所。之前的公告我没全部看懂,好像还要除息,?谁英文好的帮忙看看? $ostk","text":"$OVERSTOCK PFD DIG VTG A-1(OSTKO)$OSTK送的 美10股送一股这个,但是不在这个平台交易,再另外一个数字交易所。之前的公告我没全部看懂,好像还要除息,?谁英文好的帮忙看看? $ostk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925562873","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":926247773,"gmtCreate":1587133129892,"gmtModify":1704363443242,"author":{"id":"3442281563815389","authorId":"3442281563815389","name":"虎梨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8e5ed36b7ab356b2090a0f904528b3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3442281563815389","authorIdStr":"3442281563815389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"仿佛一篇提前写好的墓志铭,市场有三个方向,不涨并不代表会跌,但是过高得估值一定会修正正常","listText":"仿佛一篇提前写好的墓志铭,市场有三个方向,不涨并不代表会跌,但是过高得估值一定会修正正常","text":"仿佛一篇提前写好的墓志铭,市场有三个方向,不涨并不代表会跌,但是过高得估值一定会修正正常","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/926247773","repostId":"1139193371","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139193371","pubTimestamp":1587127515,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139193371?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-04-17 20:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"十一张图,谈谈对一季度宏观数据与形势的一些看法","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139193371","media":"格隆汇","summary":"一、一季度宏观数据出来了。GDP—6.8%。怎么说呢?比想象的好。好不少。我的宏观模型做出来,一季度GDP应该落入—8.5%到—9%区间。一季度是现在时,不是将来时。模型里假设变量已大幅减少,本不应该","content":"<p><b><span>一、</span></b></p><p><b><span>一季度宏观数据出来了。GDP—6.8%。</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5630a731426832535054d5b1b32837fb\"></p><p><span>怎么说呢?</span><b><span>比想象的好。好不少。</span></b></p><p><b><span>我的宏观模型做出来,一季度GDP应该落入—8.5%到—9%区间</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>一季度是现在时,不是将来时。模型里假设变量已大幅减少,</span><b><span>本不应该存在如此大的数据偏离。</span></b></p><p><span>我看了一下,</span><b><span>主要偏离发生在第三产业</span></b><span>。GDP下了6.8%,第二产业下了9.6个百分点,对GDP贡献最大的第三产业,只下了5.2个百分点:</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d33400ab6b1824ec2baaca06424fd9\"></p><p><b><span>这既不符合常识,也不符合经济规律</span></b><span>。人类经济史上,疫情对第三产业的冲击,从来远大过第一、第二产业。SARS的数据摆在那,离我们并不远。</span></p><p><b><span>各产业用电量增速,也与以上GDP贡献数据存有显然差异</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>三月份,一产用电量正增长4个点、二产用电量增速也顽强拐头,低单位数负增长,唯有第三产业,继续大跳水,用电量同比负增长19.8%,为有数据统计以来的最低水平:</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae0c4c82edcd6f6ad5b504f2087e0de\"></p><p><span>所以,</span><b><span>我并不准备对我自己的宏观模型做任何修正</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>二、</span></p><p><span>从分项数据看,</span><b><span>社零、房地产开发、固定资产投资、工业增加值,都有所好转</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><b><span>是好消息。但这些都属解除“封锁”之后的应有之义,且力度很弱(尤其社零),尚不足以谈人生</span></b><span>:</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ceee6edf4985c13b72b8e040e0af153e\"></p><p><span>作为一个用真金白银下注的投资人,</span><b><span>这些“宏大”指标颗粒度还是太粗,容易掩盖细节,甚至真相。</span></b></p><p><span>我想更细致而微、更具参考价值的三个另类数据视角,</span><b><span>谈谈我们究竟在哪?</span></b></p><p><b><span>我用三率:失业率、复工率、产能利用率</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><b><span>做生意的都知道,上面三个指标,才是居民和企业的资产负债表,是民生脉搏,是经济真相。</span></b></p><p><span>先谈失业率。</span></p><p><b><span>就业意味着工资,意味着收入,意味着需求,意味着消费与社零</span></b><span>。失业率是宏观经济学最重要的指标,没有之一。</span></p><p><span>但很遗憾,我们没有符合传统经济学意义的失业率指标。</span><b><span>我们的城镇登记失业率与调查失业率,更像一个可防可控的安民告示,参考价值相当有限</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>我们的城镇调查失业率,在3月,甚至不升反降:</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d5005b0482018c324d5b2a234e1113b\"></p><p><b><span>这不符合常识</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>我尝试着做了中国的菲利普斯曲线(一个反映失业率与通货膨胀率反向替代关系的经济学指标),结果</span><b><span>在1998年国企为就业主力军以前,我们的菲利普斯曲线几乎是一条水平直线</span></b><span>。1998年民企国企就业角色拐点后,菲利普斯曲线不是直线了,但也是失效的。</span></p><p><span>所以,只能尝试用其他数据去接近真相。其中一个有意思的维度,是百度搜索指数。</span></p><p><b><span>最新“失业”百度搜索指数大幅飙升,最新数值为过去十年均值的2.8倍:</span></b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3535fe83f6258947fb83671cc7a0a2\"></p><p><span>搜索“失业”,也可能是出于研究需要,指向性未见精确。</span><b><span>但如果搜索“失业金领取条件”,指向性就异常明确了——搜索者大概率已处于失业状态:</span></b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efa0037c8fa265632cc8f38b1596a17d\"></p><p><b><span>这个数据,3月底一度飙升到过去十年均值的16倍。最新数值,亦为过去十年均值的7倍。</span></b></p><p><span>以我的细分行业模型,剔除餐饮、旅游、酒店、运输、养殖、娱乐、影视、房地产、教培这些显而易见受巨大冲击的行业,</span><b><span>仅仅外贸相关行业,新增失业人数就可能接近2000万</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>格隆汇启动针对应届生的校园招聘后,每天会收到诸多</span><b><span>愿意很低薪、甚至无薪要求</span></b><span>的应聘材料。</span></p><p><b><span>失业,不单单意味着需求的消失,更意味着社会经济基础代谢细胞的失能,甚至坏死</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>这就是我上一篇文章《疫情之后,何去何从》着重提的观点:</span></p><p><b><span>忘掉GDP,保中小企业吧。</span></b></p><p><b><span>保它们不死,就是保我们的未来不死。</span></b></p><p><span>三、</span></p><p><b><span>在正常经济条件下,复工率是一个没有任何存在价值的指标</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>但在疫情冲击下,它非常有意义,尤其是在湖北与武汉解封这个标志性事件后。</span></p><p><span>但很遗憾,</span><b><span>找不到任何权威的复工数据指标</span></b><span>。我尝试用两个另类维度来还原我们经济复工的真实情况。</span></p><p><b><span>一个是疫情前后的城市灯光。</span></b></p><p><span>从Google地图上不难发现,疫情冲击下,2020年春节前后京津冀地区的灯光,大概只有2019年春节同期亮度的2-3成。而</span><b><span>到了3月份,灯光基本恢复到了2019年正常水平的4-5成的水平:</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c42a5794c5e2a0a8b309b186b3e92a\"></p><p><span>当然,</span><b><span>灯光角度直观,但仍显粗糙</span></b><span>,在判断精确度上存在瑕疵。</span></p><p><span>好在,</span><b><span>我们有第二个维度,中国核心城市的地铁客运量</span></b><span>。以疫情前的客运量为Benchmark,对比疫情后数据恢复情况,用以反映城市的经济恢复程度,完全符合统计学的严谨与逻辑。</span></p><p><b><span>真实数据是怎样的呢</span></b><span>:</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ceaea00a18a639a30c5c2a64c398e0dc\"></p><p><span>三个结论:</span></p><p><span>1、</span><b><span>疫情对所有城市经济,几乎都造成了断崖式冲击;</span></b></p><p><span>2、</span><b><span>大城市的恢复速度,明显慢于中小城市;</span></b></p><p><span>3、</span><b><span>以中国9个核心城市的地铁客运量的算数平均值,可以推断出,截止4月中旬,中国整体复工率,大致为59.5%;</span></b></p><p><span>这个数据意味着:</span><b><span>依然有4成左右的企业,处于(隐性)停工状态。</span></b></p><p><span>这与工信部产业政策与法规司“截至4月14日,全国规模以上工业企业平均开工率已达99%,全国中小企业复工率为84%”的提法,有显然的不匹配。</span></p><p><span>于投资人而言,无疑更应该采信城市灯光与地铁客运量。</span></p><p><span>遗憾在于,</span><b><span>地铁客运量这个数据,无法回答这4成企业未复工的原因</span></b><span>:是因为倒闭,歇业,还是暂时的冬眠,或者蛰伏?</span></p><p><span>等四月份数据出来了,上面的答案,也就基本出来了。</span></p><p><b><span>四、</span></b></p><p><b><span>之所以要追加产能利用率这个指标,是因为复工率是一个中间层指标</span></b><span>。很多企业开门是开门了,但可能只是部分运转,努力扛着,不让自己消失而已。</span></p><p><span>所谓的</span><b><span>“出工不出力”</span></b><span>,大致描述的就是这种状态。</span></p><p><span>先看看统计局的数据。2018年,中国工业产能利用率76.5%,2019年为76.6%,这些年来,都非常平稳。</span></p><p><span>到2020年3月,这个数据跳水了差不多10个百分点,到67.3%:</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e3d212a0b1d1bb46a26fd93cc72a28\"></p><p><span>这是为数不多的能互相佐证的数据。能作为证明的,是同期用电量数据:</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/118dea8421a9dd7a6a0bfe9f8dee9dd8\"></p><p><span>克强三指标,发电量、货运量、信贷量,</span><b><span>最不容易造假的就是发(用)电量</span></b><span>。没有人会闲来无事,把机器空转着玩。</span></p><p><b><span>产能利用率一口气下十个点,这种情况只有两种情形下发生:</span></b></p><p><span>1、</span><b><span>没有订单;</span></b></p><p><span>2、</span><b><span>还是没有订单;</span></b></p><p><span>所以,我在商学院讲课的时候,给所有企业家的建议都是:</span><b><span>你不要看GDP。你做决策,是要扩张,是收缩,还是干脆止损回家,盯订单就对了</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><b><span>盯消失的订单,是暂时消失,还是永久消失。</span></b></p><p><b><span>盯在手订单,还有多少,可以重来?</span></b></p><p><b><span>尾声</span></b></p><p><span>说了这么多,我想,我已经把我们在哪里,基本说清楚了。</span><span><b>很遗憾,我没法告诉你,我们会去往哪里?</b></span></p><p><span>剩下的,说两句投资。</span></p><p><b><span>我们面临着自上世纪30年代以来最大的经济萧条</span></b><span>——并不是每个人都充分相信并理解了这句话的内涵。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c75a705a3c6a589e8c52631e29b0ddb\"></p><p><b><span>人类每次大型经济危机,本质是都是技术进步导致的需求过剩</span></b><span>。通过危机的方式,需求与供给会重新回到一个较低的水平上达致平衡,直到新一轮技术革命创造出新的需求为止。从19世纪60年代蒸汽机革命以来,每轮这种繁荣期,大概都维持在60年的水平,而后会通过20-25年的时间去消化。</span></p><p><b><span>我们这轮繁荣,源自上世纪60年代开始的芯片革命。周期已至,疫情只是加速周期的到来而已</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>在可预见的未来,看不到革命性的技术会出现。</span><b><span>这意味着,无论是全球经济,还是股市,未来都会在一个区间内休憩、整理,基本不会存在单极走向的可能。</span></b></p><p><span>当然,这并不妨碍那些集聚着人类最优秀进化基因的公司继续旺盛。</span><b><span>在如此骇人的疫情下,亚马逊与与奈飞的股价依然创了历史新高。</span></b></p><p><span>事实上,投资简单,但不容易。</span></p><p><b><span>市场经常会重奖错误的行为,以鼓励他们下一次慷慨赴死。</span></b></p><p><b><span>而坚持做,且只做正确的事,并愿意为此放弃市场先生颁发给错误行为的奖金,这才是通向成功的唯一路径。</span></b></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>十一张图,谈谈对一季度宏观数据与形势的一些看法</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n十一张图,谈谈对一季度宏观数据与形势的一些看法\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-17 20:45 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CE5XdnLqgWOMjZcN8l2KtA><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一、一季度宏观数据出来了。GDP—6.8%。怎么说呢?比想象的好。好不少。我的宏观模型做出来,一季度GDP应该落入—8.5%到—9%区间。一季度是现在时,不是将来时。模型里假设变量已大幅减少,本不应该存在如此大的数据偏离。我看了一下,主要偏离发生在第三产业。GDP下了6.8%,第二产业下了9.6个百分点,对GDP贡献最大的第三产业,只下了5.2个百分点:这既不符合常识,也不符合经济规律。人类经济史...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CE5XdnLqgWOMjZcN8l2KtA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CE5XdnLqgWOMjZcN8l2KtA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1139193371","content_text":"一、一季度宏观数据出来了。GDP—6.8%。怎么说呢?比想象的好。好不少。我的宏观模型做出来,一季度GDP应该落入—8.5%到—9%区间。一季度是现在时,不是将来时。模型里假设变量已大幅减少,本不应该存在如此大的数据偏离。我看了一下,主要偏离发生在第三产业。GDP下了6.8%,第二产业下了9.6个百分点,对GDP贡献最大的第三产业,只下了5.2个百分点:这既不符合常识,也不符合经济规律。人类经济史上,疫情对第三产业的冲击,从来远大过第一、第二产业。SARS的数据摆在那,离我们并不远。各产业用电量增速,也与以上GDP贡献数据存有显然差异。三月份,一产用电量正增长4个点、二产用电量增速也顽强拐头,低单位数负增长,唯有第三产业,继续大跳水,用电量同比负增长19.8%,为有数据统计以来的最低水平:所以,我并不准备对我自己的宏观模型做任何修正。二、从分项数据看,社零、房地产开发、固定资产投资、工业增加值,都有所好转。是好消息。但这些都属解除“封锁”之后的应有之义,且力度很弱(尤其社零),尚不足以谈人生:作为一个用真金白银下注的投资人,这些“宏大”指标颗粒度还是太粗,容易掩盖细节,甚至真相。我想更细致而微、更具参考价值的三个另类数据视角,谈谈我们究竟在哪?我用三率:失业率、复工率、产能利用率。做生意的都知道,上面三个指标,才是居民和企业的资产负债表,是民生脉搏,是经济真相。先谈失业率。就业意味着工资,意味着收入,意味着需求,意味着消费与社零。失业率是宏观经济学最重要的指标,没有之一。但很遗憾,我们没有符合传统经济学意义的失业率指标。我们的城镇登记失业率与调查失业率,更像一个可防可控的安民告示,参考价值相当有限。我们的城镇调查失业率,在3月,甚至不升反降:这不符合常识。我尝试着做了中国的菲利普斯曲线(一个反映失业率与通货膨胀率反向替代关系的经济学指标),结果在1998年国企为就业主力军以前,我们的菲利普斯曲线几乎是一条水平直线。1998年民企国企就业角色拐点后,菲利普斯曲线不是直线了,但也是失效的。所以,只能尝试用其他数据去接近真相。其中一个有意思的维度,是百度搜索指数。最新“失业”百度搜索指数大幅飙升,最新数值为过去十年均值的2.8倍:搜索“失业”,也可能是出于研究需要,指向性未见精确。但如果搜索“失业金领取条件”,指向性就异常明确了——搜索者大概率已处于失业状态:这个数据,3月底一度飙升到过去十年均值的16倍。最新数值,亦为过去十年均值的7倍。以我的细分行业模型,剔除餐饮、旅游、酒店、运输、养殖、娱乐、影视、房地产、教培这些显而易见受巨大冲击的行业,仅仅外贸相关行业,新增失业人数就可能接近2000万。格隆汇启动针对应届生的校园招聘后,每天会收到诸多愿意很低薪、甚至无薪要求的应聘材料。失业,不单单意味着需求的消失,更意味着社会经济基础代谢细胞的失能,甚至坏死。这就是我上一篇文章《疫情之后,何去何从》着重提的观点:忘掉GDP,保中小企业吧。保它们不死,就是保我们的未来不死。三、在正常经济条件下,复工率是一个没有任何存在价值的指标。但在疫情冲击下,它非常有意义,尤其是在湖北与武汉解封这个标志性事件后。但很遗憾,找不到任何权威的复工数据指标。我尝试用两个另类维度来还原我们经济复工的真实情况。一个是疫情前后的城市灯光。从Google地图上不难发现,疫情冲击下,2020年春节前后京津冀地区的灯光,大概只有2019年春节同期亮度的2-3成。而到了3月份,灯光基本恢复到了2019年正常水平的4-5成的水平:当然,灯光角度直观,但仍显粗糙,在判断精确度上存在瑕疵。好在,我们有第二个维度,中国核心城市的地铁客运量。以疫情前的客运量为Benchmark,对比疫情后数据恢复情况,用以反映城市的经济恢复程度,完全符合统计学的严谨与逻辑。真实数据是怎样的呢:三个结论:1、疫情对所有城市经济,几乎都造成了断崖式冲击;2、大城市的恢复速度,明显慢于中小城市;3、以中国9个核心城市的地铁客运量的算数平均值,可以推断出,截止4月中旬,中国整体复工率,大致为59.5%;这个数据意味着:依然有4成左右的企业,处于(隐性)停工状态。这与工信部产业政策与法规司“截至4月14日,全国规模以上工业企业平均开工率已达99%,全国中小企业复工率为84%”的提法,有显然的不匹配。于投资人而言,无疑更应该采信城市灯光与地铁客运量。遗憾在于,地铁客运量这个数据,无法回答这4成企业未复工的原因:是因为倒闭,歇业,还是暂时的冬眠,或者蛰伏?等四月份数据出来了,上面的答案,也就基本出来了。四、之所以要追加产能利用率这个指标,是因为复工率是一个中间层指标。很多企业开门是开门了,但可能只是部分运转,努力扛着,不让自己消失而已。所谓的“出工不出力”,大致描述的就是这种状态。先看看统计局的数据。2018年,中国工业产能利用率76.5%,2019年为76.6%,这些年来,都非常平稳。到2020年3月,这个数据跳水了差不多10个百分点,到67.3%:这是为数不多的能互相佐证的数据。能作为证明的,是同期用电量数据:克强三指标,发电量、货运量、信贷量,最不容易造假的就是发(用)电量。没有人会闲来无事,把机器空转着玩。产能利用率一口气下十个点,这种情况只有两种情形下发生:1、没有订单;2、还是没有订单;所以,我在商学院讲课的时候,给所有企业家的建议都是:你不要看GDP。你做决策,是要扩张,是收缩,还是干脆止损回家,盯订单就对了。盯消失的订单,是暂时消失,还是永久消失。盯在手订单,还有多少,可以重来?尾声说了这么多,我想,我已经把我们在哪里,基本说清楚了。很遗憾,我没法告诉你,我们会去往哪里?剩下的,说两句投资。我们面临着自上世纪30年代以来最大的经济萧条——并不是每个人都充分相信并理解了这句话的内涵。人类每次大型经济危机,本质是都是技术进步导致的需求过剩。通过危机的方式,需求与供给会重新回到一个较低的水平上达致平衡,直到新一轮技术革命创造出新的需求为止。从19世纪60年代蒸汽机革命以来,每轮这种繁荣期,大概都维持在60年的水平,而后会通过20-25年的时间去消化。我们这轮繁荣,源自上世纪60年代开始的芯片革命。周期已至,疫情只是加速周期的到来而已。在可预见的未来,看不到革命性的技术会出现。这意味着,无论是全球经济,还是股市,未来都会在一个区间内休憩、整理,基本不会存在单极走向的可能。当然,这并不妨碍那些集聚着人类最优秀进化基因的公司继续旺盛。在如此骇人的疫情下,亚马逊与与奈飞的股价依然创了历史新高。事实上,投资简单,但不容易。市场经常会重奖错误的行为,以鼓励他们下一次慷慨赴死。而坚持做,且只做正确的事,并愿意为此放弃市场先生颁发给错误行为的奖金,这才是通向成功的唯一路径。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1076,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928958123,"gmtCreate":1586443055462,"gmtModify":1704361432401,"author":{"id":"3442281563815389","authorId":"3442281563815389","name":"虎梨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8e5ed36b7ab356b2090a0f904528b3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3442281563815389","authorIdStr":"3442281563815389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"信用被透支必然会误伤一片啦,可以关注被误伤的优质企业[可爱]","listText":"信用被透支必然会误伤一片啦,可以关注被误伤的优质企业[可爱]","text":"信用被透支必然会误伤一片啦,可以关注被误伤的优质企业[可爱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928958123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928984559,"gmtCreate":1586441506471,"gmtModify":1704361396987,"author":{"id":"3442281563815389","authorId":"3442281563815389","name":"虎梨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8e5ed36b7ab356b2090a0f904528b3","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3442281563815389","authorIdStr":"3442281563815389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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