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于洪水
2021-02-17
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@孤风残剑
:但是这里面存在一个问题,做空机构拥有话语优先表决权,如果他们一旦说错了,会误导大批的投资者抛售[捂脸],形成连锁反应,投资者的损失谁来承担呢……//
@孤风残剑
:这有啥不公平的,都是市场玩法,你运气好投了股票半个月翻十倍这公平?
@于洪水:
$亿航智能(EH)$
对做空机构没有好感,呼吁大家再次让它们尝尝做空游戏驿站时候的苦。我最讨厌做空机构。有几个原因如果机构做空某只股票然后公布做空,这对持有这只股票的股民就是一种极大的不公平,1.你的做空原因不完全站住脚,会误导投资者。2.即便你的做空理由有理有据,但当你公布做空的时候就会引起连锁反应,会凭一己之力左右市场走向,也是不公平。想想特斯拉的做空机构就想笑😂兄弟们顶我上热门,老虎就是我们中国的Reddi,加把劲撸爆做空机构[大笑]转发评论点赞的兄弟股票天天涨停板......
于洪水
2021-02-17
弟兄们,积极响应硬钢做空机构
$亿航智能(EH)$
@于洪水:
$亿航智能(EH)$
对做空机构没有好感,呼吁大家再次让它们尝尝做空游戏驿站时候的苦。我最讨厌做空机构。有几个原因如果机构做空某只股票然后公布做空,这对持有这只股票的股民就是一种极大的不公平,1.你的做空原因不完全站住脚,会误导投资者。2.即便你的做空理由有理有据,但当你公布做空的时候就会引起连锁反应,会凭一己之力左右市场走向,也是不公平。想想特斯拉的做空机构就想笑😂兄弟们顶我上热门,老虎就是我们中国的Reddi,加把劲撸爆做空机构[大笑]转发评论点赞的兄弟股票天天涨停板......
于洪水
2021-02-17
$亿航智能(EH)$
对做空机构没有好感,呼吁大家再次让它们尝尝做空游戏驿站时候的苦。我最讨厌做空机构。有几个原因如果机构做空某只股票然后公布做空,这对持有这只股票的股民就是一种极大的不公平,1.你的做空原因不完全站住脚,会误导投资者。2.即便你的做空理由有理有据,但当你公布做空的时候就会引起连锁反应,会凭一己之力左右市场走向,也是不公平。想想特斯拉的做空机构就想笑😂兄弟们顶我上热门,老虎就是我们中国的Reddi,加把劲撸爆做空机构[大笑]转发评论点赞的兄弟股票天天涨停板......
于洪水
2021-02-04
$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$
我在想谁加了那2000w得仓
于洪水
2021-02-04
$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$
貌似有坏人故意释放了一个假消息,然后趁机砸盘,砸完迅速买入...可恶
于洪水
2021-01-27
$Sea Ltd(SE)$
伙计,你真的是我的最爱[财迷]
于洪水
2021-01-27
$Sea Ltd(SE)$
冲鸭[爱你]
于洪水
2021-01-27
熬夜末日期权赌一波,赢了会所嫩模,输了下地干活
@拜登之音
于洪水
2021-01-24
$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$
下周静默期结束启动?能到30吧👀
于洪水
2021-01-20
赌一把fb的年报[开心]
不管市场怎么想,当前正值Facebook的买入机会
于洪水
2021-01-15
$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$
老兄,能坚持的等你飞起来真的有点不容易,负面消息太多了,继续加油💪
于洪水
2020-12-30
$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$
这么好的股票,现在连百亿市值都撑不起来了吗?还有道理吗?有流量,有营业额,稍微有点动作,股价就会起飞呀🛫️
于洪水
2020-12-24
美国政府如果把一个人600刀的福利换成全民免费接种疫苗,可能更好吧
于洪水
2020-12-24
$Collective Growth Corp(CGRO)$
@davidfarm
买它的4月到期的看涨期权回报收益和风险比较,哪个更合适?我不太懂这个上市套路呀[捂脸] 请给指点一下,还有就是买期权还是正股风险更小一些
于洪水
2020-12-22
$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$
可能由于期权可以交易了,大家就都转战期权了[捂脸] ?
于洪水
2020-12-22
$Ozon Holdings PLC(OZON)$
感觉有人在出货,涨点了就出点,涨点了就出点,适合做小波段
于洪水
2020-12-22
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
提心吊胆的做空20股特斯拉,赶紧清仓了,赚了500刀
于洪水
2020-12-17
$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$
再不上车来不及了[开心] [开心]
于洪水
2020-12-17
$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$
未来可期,加油💪
于洪水
2020-09-30
晒晒我的小战绩,准备等待行权了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573066391098067\">@孤风残剑</a>:但是这里面存在一个问题,做空机构拥有话语优先表决权,如果他们一旦说错了,会误导大批的投资者抛售[捂脸],形成连锁反应,投资者的损失谁来承担呢……//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573066391098067\">@孤风残剑</a>:这有啥不公平的,都是市场玩法,你运气好投了股票半个月翻十倍这公平?","listText":"回复 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573066391098067\">@孤风残剑</a>:但是这里面存在一个问题,做空机构拥有话语优先表决权,如果他们一旦说错了,会误导大批的投资者抛售[捂脸],形成连锁反应,投资者的损失谁来承担呢……//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573066391098067\">@孤风残剑</a>:这有啥不公平的,都是市场玩法,你运气好投了股票半个月翻十倍这公平?","text":"回复 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","listText":"赌一把fb的年报[开心] ","text":"赌一把fb的年报[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/337263199","repostId":"1120511372","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1120511372","pubTimestamp":1611128194,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120511372?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-20 15:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"不管市场怎么想,当前正值Facebook的买入机会","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120511372","media":"美港电讯","summary":"Facebook股价下跌,到底值不值得逢低买入?\n\n小结\n1. 由于最近再次面临更多审查,Facebook股价下跌。\n2. Facebook的平台能够覆盖多数人口,仍然是广告客户的主要来源。在遭到广告","content":"<blockquote>\n <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>股价下跌,到底值不值得逢低买入?\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>小结</b></p>\n<p>1. 由于最近再次面临更多审查,Facebook股价下跌。</p>\n<p>2. Facebook的平台能够覆盖多数人口,仍然是广告客户的主要来源。在遭到广告商集体抵制之后,该公司Q3财报创下纪录新高,从而证明了Facebook的韧性。</p>\n<p>3. 这只个股仍被严重低估,当前价格水平提供了买入机会。</p>\n<p>因大市气氛较为审慎,Facebook在过去几周走低,这并非什么新鲜事。对于我们这些持有Facebook的人而言,看到媒体报道导致Facebook股价下跌已经成为家常便饭。由于近期事件和社交媒体的介入,Facebook再次受到市场关注,投资者抛售股票,导致Facebook股价跌至250美元。</p>\n<p>作为看涨Facebook的作者,我忍不住要写这篇文章来提醒大家,这并非市场首次担心Facebook的股价。现在是时候提出看涨观点了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aea1803be1a74fe15b31b3a9b6b5ef0\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"157\"></p>\n<p><b>有人记得广告抵制活动吗?</b></p>\n<p>时光飞逝,在这个注意力成为新的货币形式的时代,人们很容易忘记。所以,我提出这个问题:有人还记得广告抵制活动吗?这只是半年多前的事情,但感觉已经了过去很久。在那之后有太多事件和“突发新闻”,所以很多人忘记了。然而这件事提醒了我们,为什么说Facebook是一辆不可阻挡的列车,我们不应该做空它。</p>\n<p>去年6月,投资者担心数千个大广告商离开Facebook,将对其营收和利润造成不利影响。在随后的第三季度,Facebook仍然表现出色,营收和净利润分别达到214亿美元和78亿美元,创历史新高。Facebook不需要大广告商。截至第三季度末,每天浏览该公司应用的用户超过18亿(还在不断增长)。Facebook吸引着全世界的目光。事实是大广告商需要Facebook,特别是当成千上万小品牌向社交媒体平台投入巨资、威胁着要从大品牌手中夺取市场份额的时候。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0OLD.UK\">阿迪达斯</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEVI\">李维斯</a>(Levi’s)等标志性品牌曾参与这场“运动”。不过,我现在每天都能看到他们的广告。为什么?因为如果李维斯不在Instagram上做广告,那么无数牛仔裤品牌和批发商很快就会抓住这个需求缺口。虽然我们无法查看参与名单上的每一个品牌,但似乎绝大多数都已经回归Facebook投放广告。</p>\n<p>我最近在《福布斯》上读到一篇文章,称<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLX\">高乐氏</a>等几个品牌仍在抵制Facebook。在我看来,这只不过是一种渴望得到关注的绝望呐喊。没有人真的在乎高乐氏是否在Facebook投放广告(反正该公司大部分商品都在线下销售),他们当然也不会在乎Facebook的业绩。</p>\n<p><b>为什么Facebook会继续占据主导地位?</b></p>\n<p>Facebook在Q3的惊人业绩证明了为什么它的平台对广告商至关重要。现在的问题变成,Facebook是否会保持目前的垄断地位,以及其他平台是否会抢占其市场份额。</p>\n<p>过去几个月,社交媒体平台(比如Pinterest和Snap)的股价飙升(与Facebook形成对比),表明投资者越来越看好它们未来的可能性。虽然这两个平台确实在快速渗透全球文化,但我认为它们属于利基市场,不一定能与Facebook竞争。</p>\n<p>例如,Pinterest是一个很好的平台,但其用户群体对广告商并不友好。超过70%的用户是女性(难以使用通用的广告),而且超过50%的用户生活在美国以外的地区(可能是消费者购买力和广告商积极性较低的地区)。而且Pinterest的内容限制使其难以与Facebook匹敌,Facebook的核心平台Facebook和Instagram可以吸引各种人群。</p>\n<p>虽然Pinterest的用户群在不断增长,但其庞大的国际曝光导致其每用户平均收入(APRU)数据疲软,表明因为考虑到用户会提供疲软的销售数据,广告商不太愿意通过该平台向用户投放广告。因此,由于Facebook或Instagram用户群更多样化,在这两个平台投放广告会有更好效果。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d47e2f20378b775dd3453bf50c1cd6fc\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"460\"></p>\n<p>同样,Snapchat也是一个很好的平台,也有很大增长空间,但其一半用户的年龄在25岁以下,很多人还未成年,因此我们有理由认为,广告商更难获得出色的投资回报率结果。</p>\n<p>不要因此误会我。我没有低估其他社交媒体平台。只是Facebook目前的规模和庞大的用户群超出了所有广告商在几年前的期望。因此,Facebook仍将是最受广告商青睐的平台。同时,我要提醒一部分人。他们甚至下意识认为Facebook是一个“垂死的平台”,但是Facebook的用户基础仍在以两位数的速度增长(截至上季度,增长速度为12%)。</p>\n<p><b>为什么Facebook被严重低估?</b></p>\n<p>Facebook拥有550亿美元现金,随时准备用于各种风险投资和收购,而且长期债务为零。它的毛利率和净收益利润率分别超过80%和35%。你可以爱也可以恨Facebook,但是任何看过Facebook财务报表的投资者都应该承认,它的指标好得令人难以置信。</p>\n<p>但是让我们关注重点:Facebook的股价被严重低估。可以说,Facebook的估值倍数“总是”低于市场的正常估值倍数。不过,我认为,当前Facebook被严重低估为投资者提供了投资机会。</p>\n<p>目前,该公司5年和3年EPS复合年增长率分别为54.5%和19.37%。在此前的文章中,我解释过为什么中期来看Facebook的用户增长以及APRU增长可以轻松证明这家公司能够达到18%的EPS复合年增长率。</p>\n<p>根据分析师预估,该公司的EPS增长将放缓,该股目前的市值约为其2022年净利润的20倍。考虑到现在零利率的市场环境,日用消费品和公用事业公司的估值变得更高,这一点相当具有讽刺意味。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f135e20364402d28d968f6f771a293e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"280\"></p>\n<p>无论怎么看,Facebook的股价都被严重低估了。让我们考虑一下公司产生的自由现金流,并对未来的预测进行折现。以下是最初的假设。Facebook拥有0美元的长期债务,这一事实让这种模式变得相当简单。我们的初始自由现金流为200亿美元(按当前运营速度计算),考虑到公司每年可能实现更高数字(2020年Q1为56亿美元),这个数字相当保守。我们的加权平均成本与股票成本基本相当,这取决于股票的β系数约为1.1以及目前1.1%的10年期美国国债收益率。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19f2688794d7578a701c8896358c5b6e\" tg-width=\"372\" tg-height=\"312\"></p>\n<p>如下图,为了谨慎起见,假设Facebook的自由现金流率在中期会逐渐下降,到2026年下滑至10%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed8a2dac3256f663b79885d96f0bffba\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"495\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47f5b93f0a19f8bfa5e0f9e2b726a958\" tg-width=\"345\" tg-height=\"274\"></p>\n<p>考虑到这些数据,Facebook目前每股内在价值约为339美元,意味着涨幅接近30%(以1月19日美股收盘价计算)。我的自由现金流增长预测相当合理。因此,该股未来有很大上行空间。</p>\n<p>由于Facebook面临审查,所以尽管它的财务状况颇具吸引力,金融机构可能将其视为一只“次要股票”,并拒绝增持。值得庆幸的是,Facebook在过去几年已经开始利用其丰厚的现金向股东返还资本。虽然股价仍被低估,但管理层应该能够低价买入股票,增加股东的长期价值创造。随着时间推移,这也可能成为该股带来高回报潜力的另一种催化剂。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8f211a5e4260056e6b836d81db423a\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"414\"></p>\n<p><b>风险</b></p>\n<p>单纯从财务角度来看,由于Facebook持有巨额现金,该公司可以承受任何可能的罚款。在我看来,这能够证明Facebook的管理层像过去一样积极应对未来可能面临的罚款。</p>\n<p>此外,投资者最近担心政府可能迫使Facebook拆分业务。几天前,纽约大学教授Scott Galloway再次表达了他对拆分Facebook(以及一般意义上的大型科技公司)的看法。得到的结论是:尽管应该更早采取这种行动,但并无明确理由要拆分Facebook,拆分可能永远不会发生。此外,我还必须补充一点,即使拆分Facebook,投资者也可能从中受益。</p>\n<p>最后一个风险是Facebook的扩张可能导致用户增长和APRU增长放缓,但是现在完全没有这种迹象。而且Facebook低迷的估值已经使得该公司像其他停滞不前的公司一样定价,这也增加了投资者的安全边际。</p>\n<p><b>结论</b></p>\n<p>Facebook被严重低估了。该公司已经证明自己是广告商吸引产品/服务关注的重要媒介。 尽管Pinterest和Snap等其他社交媒体平台非常好,并且具有吸引大量广告商兴趣的潜力,但就目前的规模和用户分布而言,Facebook仍然是最佳平台。Facebook一直在快速增长,每个季度都能报告好于预期的业绩,但市场拒绝欣赏它的价值。不过,数字不会说谎,即使花费一些时间,Facebook的估值最终也会反映出它的财务状况。</p>\n<p>就像世界上每家公司都存在风险一样,Facebook也存在风险,但市场已经对Facebook的定价已经是出于最差情况。考虑到所有因素,我相信Facebook当前价格水平是一个强烈的买入信号。凭借Facebook强劲的增长,其股价不仅存在巨大的上涨空间,而且考虑到该公司有吸引力的财务状况和低迷的估值,我认为Facebook将成为价值驱动的投资案例。</p>","source":"lsy1606393433888","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n不管市场怎么想,当前正值Facebook的买入机会\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-20 15:36 北京时间 <a href=https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002029&type=news><strong>美港电讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Facebook股价下跌,到底值不值得逢低买入?\n\n小结\n1. 由于最近再次面临更多审查,Facebook股价下跌。\n2. Facebook的平台能够覆盖多数人口,仍然是广告客户的主要来源。在遭到广告商集体抵制之后,该公司Q3财报创下纪录新高,从而证明了Facebook的韧性。\n3. 这只个股仍被严重低估,当前价格水平提供了买入机会。\n因大市气氛较为审慎,Facebook在过去几周走低,这并非什么...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002029&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33ab84e4029d8ef3153c809ed618bb99","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002029&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120511372","content_text":"Facebook股价下跌,到底值不值得逢低买入?\n\n小结\n1. 由于最近再次面临更多审查,Facebook股价下跌。\n2. Facebook的平台能够覆盖多数人口,仍然是广告客户的主要来源。在遭到广告商集体抵制之后,该公司Q3财报创下纪录新高,从而证明了Facebook的韧性。\n3. 这只个股仍被严重低估,当前价格水平提供了买入机会。\n因大市气氛较为审慎,Facebook在过去几周走低,这并非什么新鲜事。对于我们这些持有Facebook的人而言,看到媒体报道导致Facebook股价下跌已经成为家常便饭。由于近期事件和社交媒体的介入,Facebook再次受到市场关注,投资者抛售股票,导致Facebook股价跌至250美元。\n作为看涨Facebook的作者,我忍不住要写这篇文章来提醒大家,这并非市场首次担心Facebook的股价。现在是时候提出看涨观点了。\n\n有人记得广告抵制活动吗?\n时光飞逝,在这个注意力成为新的货币形式的时代,人们很容易忘记。所以,我提出这个问题:有人还记得广告抵制活动吗?这只是半年多前的事情,但感觉已经了过去很久。在那之后有太多事件和“突发新闻”,所以很多人忘记了。然而这件事提醒了我们,为什么说Facebook是一辆不可阻挡的列车,我们不应该做空它。\n去年6月,投资者担心数千个大广告商离开Facebook,将对其营收和利润造成不利影响。在随后的第三季度,Facebook仍然表现出色,营收和净利润分别达到214亿美元和78亿美元,创历史新高。Facebook不需要大广告商。截至第三季度末,每天浏览该公司应用的用户超过18亿(还在不断增长)。Facebook吸引着全世界的目光。事实是大广告商需要Facebook,特别是当成千上万小品牌向社交媒体平台投入巨资、威胁着要从大品牌手中夺取市场份额的时候。\n阿迪达斯和李维斯(Levi’s)等标志性品牌曾参与这场“运动”。不过,我现在每天都能看到他们的广告。为什么?因为如果李维斯不在Instagram上做广告,那么无数牛仔裤品牌和批发商很快就会抓住这个需求缺口。虽然我们无法查看参与名单上的每一个品牌,但似乎绝大多数都已经回归Facebook投放广告。\n我最近在《福布斯》上读到一篇文章,称可口可乐和高乐氏等几个品牌仍在抵制Facebook。在我看来,这只不过是一种渴望得到关注的绝望呐喊。没有人真的在乎高乐氏是否在Facebook投放广告(反正该公司大部分商品都在线下销售),他们当然也不会在乎Facebook的业绩。\n为什么Facebook会继续占据主导地位?\nFacebook在Q3的惊人业绩证明了为什么它的平台对广告商至关重要。现在的问题变成,Facebook是否会保持目前的垄断地位,以及其他平台是否会抢占其市场份额。\n过去几个月,社交媒体平台(比如Pinterest和Snap)的股价飙升(与Facebook形成对比),表明投资者越来越看好它们未来的可能性。虽然这两个平台确实在快速渗透全球文化,但我认为它们属于利基市场,不一定能与Facebook竞争。\n例如,Pinterest是一个很好的平台,但其用户群体对广告商并不友好。超过70%的用户是女性(难以使用通用的广告),而且超过50%的用户生活在美国以外的地区(可能是消费者购买力和广告商积极性较低的地区)。而且Pinterest的内容限制使其难以与Facebook匹敌,Facebook的核心平台Facebook和Instagram可以吸引各种人群。\n虽然Pinterest的用户群在不断增长,但其庞大的国际曝光导致其每用户平均收入(APRU)数据疲软,表明因为考虑到用户会提供疲软的销售数据,广告商不太愿意通过该平台向用户投放广告。因此,由于Facebook或Instagram用户群更多样化,在这两个平台投放广告会有更好效果。\n\n同样,Snapchat也是一个很好的平台,也有很大增长空间,但其一半用户的年龄在25岁以下,很多人还未成年,因此我们有理由认为,广告商更难获得出色的投资回报率结果。\n不要因此误会我。我没有低估其他社交媒体平台。只是Facebook目前的规模和庞大的用户群超出了所有广告商在几年前的期望。因此,Facebook仍将是最受广告商青睐的平台。同时,我要提醒一部分人。他们甚至下意识认为Facebook是一个“垂死的平台”,但是Facebook的用户基础仍在以两位数的速度增长(截至上季度,增长速度为12%)。\n为什么Facebook被严重低估?\nFacebook拥有550亿美元现金,随时准备用于各种风险投资和收购,而且长期债务为零。它的毛利率和净收益利润率分别超过80%和35%。你可以爱也可以恨Facebook,但是任何看过Facebook财务报表的投资者都应该承认,它的指标好得令人难以置信。\n但是让我们关注重点:Facebook的股价被严重低估。可以说,Facebook的估值倍数“总是”低于市场的正常估值倍数。不过,我认为,当前Facebook被严重低估为投资者提供了投资机会。\n目前,该公司5年和3年EPS复合年增长率分别为54.5%和19.37%。在此前的文章中,我解释过为什么中期来看Facebook的用户增长以及APRU增长可以轻松证明这家公司能够达到18%的EPS复合年增长率。\n根据分析师预估,该公司的EPS增长将放缓,该股目前的市值约为其2022年净利润的20倍。考虑到现在零利率的市场环境,日用消费品和公用事业公司的估值变得更高,这一点相当具有讽刺意味。\n\n无论怎么看,Facebook的股价都被严重低估了。让我们考虑一下公司产生的自由现金流,并对未来的预测进行折现。以下是最初的假设。Facebook拥有0美元的长期债务,这一事实让这种模式变得相当简单。我们的初始自由现金流为200亿美元(按当前运营速度计算),考虑到公司每年可能实现更高数字(2020年Q1为56亿美元),这个数字相当保守。我们的加权平均成本与股票成本基本相当,这取决于股票的β系数约为1.1以及目前1.1%的10年期美国国债收益率。\n\n如下图,为了谨慎起见,假设Facebook的自由现金流率在中期会逐渐下降,到2026年下滑至10%。\n\n考虑到这些数据,Facebook目前每股内在价值约为339美元,意味着涨幅接近30%(以1月19日美股收盘价计算)。我的自由现金流增长预测相当合理。因此,该股未来有很大上行空间。\n由于Facebook面临审查,所以尽管它的财务状况颇具吸引力,金融机构可能将其视为一只“次要股票”,并拒绝增持。值得庆幸的是,Facebook在过去几年已经开始利用其丰厚的现金向股东返还资本。虽然股价仍被低估,但管理层应该能够低价买入股票,增加股东的长期价值创造。随着时间推移,这也可能成为该股带来高回报潜力的另一种催化剂。\n\n风险\n单纯从财务角度来看,由于Facebook持有巨额现金,该公司可以承受任何可能的罚款。在我看来,这能够证明Facebook的管理层像过去一样积极应对未来可能面临的罚款。\n此外,投资者最近担心政府可能迫使Facebook拆分业务。几天前,纽约大学教授Scott Galloway再次表达了他对拆分Facebook(以及一般意义上的大型科技公司)的看法。得到的结论是:尽管应该更早采取这种行动,但并无明确理由要拆分Facebook,拆分可能永远不会发生。此外,我还必须补充一点,即使拆分Facebook,投资者也可能从中受益。\n最后一个风险是Facebook的扩张可能导致用户增长和APRU增长放缓,但是现在完全没有这种迹象。而且Facebook低迷的估值已经使得该公司像其他停滞不前的公司一样定价,这也增加了投资者的安全边际。\n结论\nFacebook被严重低估了。该公司已经证明自己是广告商吸引产品/服务关注的重要媒介。 尽管Pinterest和Snap等其他社交媒体平台非常好,并且具有吸引大量广告商兴趣的潜力,但就目前的规模和用户分布而言,Facebook仍然是最佳平台。Facebook一直在快速增长,每个季度都能报告好于预期的业绩,但市场拒绝欣赏它的价值。不过,数字不会说谎,即使花费一些时间,Facebook的估值最终也会反映出它的财务状况。\n就像世界上每家公司都存在风险一样,Facebook也存在风险,但市场已经对Facebook的定价已经是出于最差情况。考虑到所有因素,我相信Facebook当前价格水平是一个强烈的买入信号。凭借Facebook强劲的增长,其股价不仅存在巨大的上涨空间,而且考虑到该公司有吸引力的财务状况和低迷的估值,我认为Facebook将成为价值驱动的投资案例。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334039990,"gmtCreate":1610669429310,"gmtModify":1703746076177,"author":{"id":"20150655036012","authorId":"20150655036012","authorIdStr":"20150655036012","name":"于洪水","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/tiger_upload_file_1448592912.png","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>老兄,能坚持的等你飞起来真的有点不容易,负面消息太多了,继续加油💪","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>老兄,能坚持的等你飞起来真的有点不容易,负面消息太多了,继续加油💪","text":"$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$老兄,能坚持的等你飞起来真的有点不容易,负面消息太多了,继续加油💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334039990","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333298367,"gmtCreate":1609271685559,"gmtModify":1703738559400,"author":{"id":"20150655036012","authorId":"20150655036012","authorIdStr":"20150655036012","name":"于洪水","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/tiger_upload_file_1448592912.png","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>这么好的股票,现在连百亿市值都撑不起来了吗?还有道理吗?有流量,有营业额,稍微有点动作,股价就会起飞呀🛫️","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic 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Inc.(WISH)$这么好的股票,现在连百亿市值都撑不起来了吗?还有道理吗?有流量,有营业额,稍微有点动作,股价就会起飞呀🛫️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333298367","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562670436825511","authorId":"3562670436825511","authorIdStr":"3562670436825511","name":"上了飞机老师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f05edd9e1dfe2801c7d5b00683313e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"不要急,才开盘没几天,需要一个过程。1月大盘不稳也是一个因素,这个时候资金不会贸然入场。再看看,还是讲究心态。","text":"不要急,才开盘没几天,需要一个过程。1月大盘不稳也是一个因素,这个时候资金不会贸然入场。再看看,还是讲究心态。","html":"不要急,才开盘没几天,需要一个过程。1月大盘不稳也是一个因素,这个时候资金不会贸然入场。再看看,还是讲究心态。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339194501,"gmtCreate":1608786161803,"gmtModify":1703736765727,"author":{"id":"20150655036012","authorId":"20150655036012","authorIdStr":"20150655036012","name":"于洪水","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/tiger_upload_file_1448592912.png","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美国政府如果把一个人600刀的福利换成全民免费接种疫苗,可能更好吧","listText":"美国政府如果把一个人600刀的福利换成全民免费接种疫苗,可能更好吧","text":"美国政府如果把一个人600刀的福利换成全民免费接种疫苗,可能更好吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339194501","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339974156,"gmtCreate":1608746298675,"gmtModify":1703736599640,"author":{"id":"20150655036012","authorId":"20150655036012","authorIdStr":"20150655036012","name":"于洪水","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/tiger_upload_file_1448592912.png","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CGRO\">$Collective Growth Corp(CGRO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569863429926574\">@davidfarm</a>买它的4月到期的看涨期权回报收益和风险比较,哪个更合适?我不太懂这个上市套路呀[捂脸] 请给指点一下,还有就是买期权还是正股风险更小一些","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CGRO\">$Collective Growth Corp(CGRO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569863429926574\">@davidfarm</a>买它的4月到期的看涨期权回报收益和风险比较,哪个更合适?我不太懂这个上市套路呀[捂脸] 请给指点一下,还有就是买期权还是正股风险更小一些","text":"$Collective Growth Corp(CGRO)$@davidfarm买它的4月到期的看涨期权回报收益和风险比较,哪个更合适?我不太懂这个上市套路呀[捂脸] 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?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330551357","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330565727,"gmtCreate":1608649595269,"gmtModify":1703735990964,"author":{"id":"20150655036012","authorId":"20150655036012","authorIdStr":"20150655036012","name":"于洪水","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/tiger_upload_file_1448592912.png","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OZON\">$Ozon Holdings PLC(OZON)$</a>感觉有人在出货,涨点了就出点,涨点了就出点,适合做小波段","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OZON\">$Ozon Holdings PLC(OZON)$</a>感觉有人在出货,涨点了就出点,涨点了就出点,适合做小波段","text":"$Ozon Holdings 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","text":"赌一把fb的年报[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/337263199","repostId":"1120511372","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1120511372","pubTimestamp":1611128194,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120511372?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-20 15:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"不管市场怎么想,当前正值Facebook的买入机会","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120511372","media":"美港电讯","summary":"Facebook股价下跌,到底值不值得逢低买入?\n\n小结\n1. 由于最近再次面临更多审查,Facebook股价下跌。\n2. Facebook的平台能够覆盖多数人口,仍然是广告客户的主要来源。在遭到广告","content":"<blockquote>\n <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>股价下跌,到底值不值得逢低买入?\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>小结</b></p>\n<p>1. 由于最近再次面临更多审查,Facebook股价下跌。</p>\n<p>2. Facebook的平台能够覆盖多数人口,仍然是广告客户的主要来源。在遭到广告商集体抵制之后,该公司Q3财报创下纪录新高,从而证明了Facebook的韧性。</p>\n<p>3. 这只个股仍被严重低估,当前价格水平提供了买入机会。</p>\n<p>因大市气氛较为审慎,Facebook在过去几周走低,这并非什么新鲜事。对于我们这些持有Facebook的人而言,看到媒体报道导致Facebook股价下跌已经成为家常便饭。由于近期事件和社交媒体的介入,Facebook再次受到市场关注,投资者抛售股票,导致Facebook股价跌至250美元。</p>\n<p>作为看涨Facebook的作者,我忍不住要写这篇文章来提醒大家,这并非市场首次担心Facebook的股价。现在是时候提出看涨观点了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aea1803be1a74fe15b31b3a9b6b5ef0\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"157\"></p>\n<p><b>有人记得广告抵制活动吗?</b></p>\n<p>时光飞逝,在这个注意力成为新的货币形式的时代,人们很容易忘记。所以,我提出这个问题:有人还记得广告抵制活动吗?这只是半年多前的事情,但感觉已经了过去很久。在那之后有太多事件和“突发新闻”,所以很多人忘记了。然而这件事提醒了我们,为什么说Facebook是一辆不可阻挡的列车,我们不应该做空它。</p>\n<p>去年6月,投资者担心数千个大广告商离开Facebook,将对其营收和利润造成不利影响。在随后的第三季度,Facebook仍然表现出色,营收和净利润分别达到214亿美元和78亿美元,创历史新高。Facebook不需要大广告商。截至第三季度末,每天浏览该公司应用的用户超过18亿(还在不断增长)。Facebook吸引着全世界的目光。事实是大广告商需要Facebook,特别是当成千上万小品牌向社交媒体平台投入巨资、威胁着要从大品牌手中夺取市场份额的时候。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0OLD.UK\">阿迪达斯</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEVI\">李维斯</a>(Levi’s)等标志性品牌曾参与这场“运动”。不过,我现在每天都能看到他们的广告。为什么?因为如果李维斯不在Instagram上做广告,那么无数牛仔裤品牌和批发商很快就会抓住这个需求缺口。虽然我们无法查看参与名单上的每一个品牌,但似乎绝大多数都已经回归Facebook投放广告。</p>\n<p>我最近在《福布斯》上读到一篇文章,称<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLX\">高乐氏</a>等几个品牌仍在抵制Facebook。在我看来,这只不过是一种渴望得到关注的绝望呐喊。没有人真的在乎高乐氏是否在Facebook投放广告(反正该公司大部分商品都在线下销售),他们当然也不会在乎Facebook的业绩。</p>\n<p><b>为什么Facebook会继续占据主导地位?</b></p>\n<p>Facebook在Q3的惊人业绩证明了为什么它的平台对广告商至关重要。现在的问题变成,Facebook是否会保持目前的垄断地位,以及其他平台是否会抢占其市场份额。</p>\n<p>过去几个月,社交媒体平台(比如Pinterest和Snap)的股价飙升(与Facebook形成对比),表明投资者越来越看好它们未来的可能性。虽然这两个平台确实在快速渗透全球文化,但我认为它们属于利基市场,不一定能与Facebook竞争。</p>\n<p>例如,Pinterest是一个很好的平台,但其用户群体对广告商并不友好。超过70%的用户是女性(难以使用通用的广告),而且超过50%的用户生活在美国以外的地区(可能是消费者购买力和广告商积极性较低的地区)。而且Pinterest的内容限制使其难以与Facebook匹敌,Facebook的核心平台Facebook和Instagram可以吸引各种人群。</p>\n<p>虽然Pinterest的用户群在不断增长,但其庞大的国际曝光导致其每用户平均收入(APRU)数据疲软,表明因为考虑到用户会提供疲软的销售数据,广告商不太愿意通过该平台向用户投放广告。因此,由于Facebook或Instagram用户群更多样化,在这两个平台投放广告会有更好效果。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d47e2f20378b775dd3453bf50c1cd6fc\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"460\"></p>\n<p>同样,Snapchat也是一个很好的平台,也有很大增长空间,但其一半用户的年龄在25岁以下,很多人还未成年,因此我们有理由认为,广告商更难获得出色的投资回报率结果。</p>\n<p>不要因此误会我。我没有低估其他社交媒体平台。只是Facebook目前的规模和庞大的用户群超出了所有广告商在几年前的期望。因此,Facebook仍将是最受广告商青睐的平台。同时,我要提醒一部分人。他们甚至下意识认为Facebook是一个“垂死的平台”,但是Facebook的用户基础仍在以两位数的速度增长(截至上季度,增长速度为12%)。</p>\n<p><b>为什么Facebook被严重低估?</b></p>\n<p>Facebook拥有550亿美元现金,随时准备用于各种风险投资和收购,而且长期债务为零。它的毛利率和净收益利润率分别超过80%和35%。你可以爱也可以恨Facebook,但是任何看过Facebook财务报表的投资者都应该承认,它的指标好得令人难以置信。</p>\n<p>但是让我们关注重点:Facebook的股价被严重低估。可以说,Facebook的估值倍数“总是”低于市场的正常估值倍数。不过,我认为,当前Facebook被严重低估为投资者提供了投资机会。</p>\n<p>目前,该公司5年和3年EPS复合年增长率分别为54.5%和19.37%。在此前的文章中,我解释过为什么中期来看Facebook的用户增长以及APRU增长可以轻松证明这家公司能够达到18%的EPS复合年增长率。</p>\n<p>根据分析师预估,该公司的EPS增长将放缓,该股目前的市值约为其2022年净利润的20倍。考虑到现在零利率的市场环境,日用消费品和公用事业公司的估值变得更高,这一点相当具有讽刺意味。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f135e20364402d28d968f6f771a293e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"280\"></p>\n<p>无论怎么看,Facebook的股价都被严重低估了。让我们考虑一下公司产生的自由现金流,并对未来的预测进行折现。以下是最初的假设。Facebook拥有0美元的长期债务,这一事实让这种模式变得相当简单。我们的初始自由现金流为200亿美元(按当前运营速度计算),考虑到公司每年可能实现更高数字(2020年Q1为56亿美元),这个数字相当保守。我们的加权平均成本与股票成本基本相当,这取决于股票的β系数约为1.1以及目前1.1%的10年期美国国债收益率。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19f2688794d7578a701c8896358c5b6e\" tg-width=\"372\" tg-height=\"312\"></p>\n<p>如下图,为了谨慎起见,假设Facebook的自由现金流率在中期会逐渐下降,到2026年下滑至10%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed8a2dac3256f663b79885d96f0bffba\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"495\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47f5b93f0a19f8bfa5e0f9e2b726a958\" tg-width=\"345\" tg-height=\"274\"></p>\n<p>考虑到这些数据,Facebook目前每股内在价值约为339美元,意味着涨幅接近30%(以1月19日美股收盘价计算)。我的自由现金流增长预测相当合理。因此,该股未来有很大上行空间。</p>\n<p>由于Facebook面临审查,所以尽管它的财务状况颇具吸引力,金融机构可能将其视为一只“次要股票”,并拒绝增持。值得庆幸的是,Facebook在过去几年已经开始利用其丰厚的现金向股东返还资本。虽然股价仍被低估,但管理层应该能够低价买入股票,增加股东的长期价值创造。随着时间推移,这也可能成为该股带来高回报潜力的另一种催化剂。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8f211a5e4260056e6b836d81db423a\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"414\"></p>\n<p><b>风险</b></p>\n<p>单纯从财务角度来看,由于Facebook持有巨额现金,该公司可以承受任何可能的罚款。在我看来,这能够证明Facebook的管理层像过去一样积极应对未来可能面临的罚款。</p>\n<p>此外,投资者最近担心政府可能迫使Facebook拆分业务。几天前,纽约大学教授Scott Galloway再次表达了他对拆分Facebook(以及一般意义上的大型科技公司)的看法。得到的结论是:尽管应该更早采取这种行动,但并无明确理由要拆分Facebook,拆分可能永远不会发生。此外,我还必须补充一点,即使拆分Facebook,投资者也可能从中受益。</p>\n<p>最后一个风险是Facebook的扩张可能导致用户增长和APRU增长放缓,但是现在完全没有这种迹象。而且Facebook低迷的估值已经使得该公司像其他停滞不前的公司一样定价,这也增加了投资者的安全边际。</p>\n<p><b>结论</b></p>\n<p>Facebook被严重低估了。该公司已经证明自己是广告商吸引产品/服务关注的重要媒介。 尽管Pinterest和Snap等其他社交媒体平台非常好,并且具有吸引大量广告商兴趣的潜力,但就目前的规模和用户分布而言,Facebook仍然是最佳平台。Facebook一直在快速增长,每个季度都能报告好于预期的业绩,但市场拒绝欣赏它的价值。不过,数字不会说谎,即使花费一些时间,Facebook的估值最终也会反映出它的财务状况。</p>\n<p>就像世界上每家公司都存在风险一样,Facebook也存在风险,但市场已经对Facebook的定价已经是出于最差情况。考虑到所有因素,我相信Facebook当前价格水平是一个强烈的买入信号。凭借Facebook强劲的增长,其股价不仅存在巨大的上涨空间,而且考虑到该公司有吸引力的财务状况和低迷的估值,我认为Facebook将成为价值驱动的投资案例。</p>","source":"lsy1606393433888","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n不管市场怎么想,当前正值Facebook的买入机会\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-20 15:36 北京时间 <a href=https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002029&type=news><strong>美港电讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Facebook股价下跌,到底值不值得逢低买入?\n\n小结\n1. 由于最近再次面临更多审查,Facebook股价下跌。\n2. Facebook的平台能够覆盖多数人口,仍然是广告客户的主要来源。在遭到广告商集体抵制之后,该公司Q3财报创下纪录新高,从而证明了Facebook的韧性。\n3. 这只个股仍被严重低估,当前价格水平提供了买入机会。\n因大市气氛较为审慎,Facebook在过去几周走低,这并非什么...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002029&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33ab84e4029d8ef3153c809ed618bb99","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002029&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120511372","content_text":"Facebook股价下跌,到底值不值得逢低买入?\n\n小结\n1. 由于最近再次面临更多审查,Facebook股价下跌。\n2. Facebook的平台能够覆盖多数人口,仍然是广告客户的主要来源。在遭到广告商集体抵制之后,该公司Q3财报创下纪录新高,从而证明了Facebook的韧性。\n3. 这只个股仍被严重低估,当前价格水平提供了买入机会。\n因大市气氛较为审慎,Facebook在过去几周走低,这并非什么新鲜事。对于我们这些持有Facebook的人而言,看到媒体报道导致Facebook股价下跌已经成为家常便饭。由于近期事件和社交媒体的介入,Facebook再次受到市场关注,投资者抛售股票,导致Facebook股价跌至250美元。\n作为看涨Facebook的作者,我忍不住要写这篇文章来提醒大家,这并非市场首次担心Facebook的股价。现在是时候提出看涨观点了。\n\n有人记得广告抵制活动吗?\n时光飞逝,在这个注意力成为新的货币形式的时代,人们很容易忘记。所以,我提出这个问题:有人还记得广告抵制活动吗?这只是半年多前的事情,但感觉已经了过去很久。在那之后有太多事件和“突发新闻”,所以很多人忘记了。然而这件事提醒了我们,为什么说Facebook是一辆不可阻挡的列车,我们不应该做空它。\n去年6月,投资者担心数千个大广告商离开Facebook,将对其营收和利润造成不利影响。在随后的第三季度,Facebook仍然表现出色,营收和净利润分别达到214亿美元和78亿美元,创历史新高。Facebook不需要大广告商。截至第三季度末,每天浏览该公司应用的用户超过18亿(还在不断增长)。Facebook吸引着全世界的目光。事实是大广告商需要Facebook,特别是当成千上万小品牌向社交媒体平台投入巨资、威胁着要从大品牌手中夺取市场份额的时候。\n阿迪达斯和李维斯(Levi’s)等标志性品牌曾参与这场“运动”。不过,我现在每天都能看到他们的广告。为什么?因为如果李维斯不在Instagram上做广告,那么无数牛仔裤品牌和批发商很快就会抓住这个需求缺口。虽然我们无法查看参与名单上的每一个品牌,但似乎绝大多数都已经回归Facebook投放广告。\n我最近在《福布斯》上读到一篇文章,称可口可乐和高乐氏等几个品牌仍在抵制Facebook。在我看来,这只不过是一种渴望得到关注的绝望呐喊。没有人真的在乎高乐氏是否在Facebook投放广告(反正该公司大部分商品都在线下销售),他们当然也不会在乎Facebook的业绩。\n为什么Facebook会继续占据主导地位?\nFacebook在Q3的惊人业绩证明了为什么它的平台对广告商至关重要。现在的问题变成,Facebook是否会保持目前的垄断地位,以及其他平台是否会抢占其市场份额。\n过去几个月,社交媒体平台(比如Pinterest和Snap)的股价飙升(与Facebook形成对比),表明投资者越来越看好它们未来的可能性。虽然这两个平台确实在快速渗透全球文化,但我认为它们属于利基市场,不一定能与Facebook竞争。\n例如,Pinterest是一个很好的平台,但其用户群体对广告商并不友好。超过70%的用户是女性(难以使用通用的广告),而且超过50%的用户生活在美国以外的地区(可能是消费者购买力和广告商积极性较低的地区)。而且Pinterest的内容限制使其难以与Facebook匹敌,Facebook的核心平台Facebook和Instagram可以吸引各种人群。\n虽然Pinterest的用户群在不断增长,但其庞大的国际曝光导致其每用户平均收入(APRU)数据疲软,表明因为考虑到用户会提供疲软的销售数据,广告商不太愿意通过该平台向用户投放广告。因此,由于Facebook或Instagram用户群更多样化,在这两个平台投放广告会有更好效果。\n\n同样,Snapchat也是一个很好的平台,也有很大增长空间,但其一半用户的年龄在25岁以下,很多人还未成年,因此我们有理由认为,广告商更难获得出色的投资回报率结果。\n不要因此误会我。我没有低估其他社交媒体平台。只是Facebook目前的规模和庞大的用户群超出了所有广告商在几年前的期望。因此,Facebook仍将是最受广告商青睐的平台。同时,我要提醒一部分人。他们甚至下意识认为Facebook是一个“垂死的平台”,但是Facebook的用户基础仍在以两位数的速度增长(截至上季度,增长速度为12%)。\n为什么Facebook被严重低估?\nFacebook拥有550亿美元现金,随时准备用于各种风险投资和收购,而且长期债务为零。它的毛利率和净收益利润率分别超过80%和35%。你可以爱也可以恨Facebook,但是任何看过Facebook财务报表的投资者都应该承认,它的指标好得令人难以置信。\n但是让我们关注重点:Facebook的股价被严重低估。可以说,Facebook的估值倍数“总是”低于市场的正常估值倍数。不过,我认为,当前Facebook被严重低估为投资者提供了投资机会。\n目前,该公司5年和3年EPS复合年增长率分别为54.5%和19.37%。在此前的文章中,我解释过为什么中期来看Facebook的用户增长以及APRU增长可以轻松证明这家公司能够达到18%的EPS复合年增长率。\n根据分析师预估,该公司的EPS增长将放缓,该股目前的市值约为其2022年净利润的20倍。考虑到现在零利率的市场环境,日用消费品和公用事业公司的估值变得更高,这一点相当具有讽刺意味。\n\n无论怎么看,Facebook的股价都被严重低估了。让我们考虑一下公司产生的自由现金流,并对未来的预测进行折现。以下是最初的假设。Facebook拥有0美元的长期债务,这一事实让这种模式变得相当简单。我们的初始自由现金流为200亿美元(按当前运营速度计算),考虑到公司每年可能实现更高数字(2020年Q1为56亿美元),这个数字相当保守。我们的加权平均成本与股票成本基本相当,这取决于股票的β系数约为1.1以及目前1.1%的10年期美国国债收益率。\n\n如下图,为了谨慎起见,假设Facebook的自由现金流率在中期会逐渐下降,到2026年下滑至10%。\n\n考虑到这些数据,Facebook目前每股内在价值约为339美元,意味着涨幅接近30%(以1月19日美股收盘价计算)。我的自由现金流增长预测相当合理。因此,该股未来有很大上行空间。\n由于Facebook面临审查,所以尽管它的财务状况颇具吸引力,金融机构可能将其视为一只“次要股票”,并拒绝增持。值得庆幸的是,Facebook在过去几年已经开始利用其丰厚的现金向股东返还资本。虽然股价仍被低估,但管理层应该能够低价买入股票,增加股东的长期价值创造。随着时间推移,这也可能成为该股带来高回报潜力的另一种催化剂。\n\n风险\n单纯从财务角度来看,由于Facebook持有巨额现金,该公司可以承受任何可能的罚款。在我看来,这能够证明Facebook的管理层像过去一样积极应对未来可能面临的罚款。\n此外,投资者最近担心政府可能迫使Facebook拆分业务。几天前,纽约大学教授Scott Galloway再次表达了他对拆分Facebook(以及一般意义上的大型科技公司)的看法。得到的结论是:尽管应该更早采取这种行动,但并无明确理由要拆分Facebook,拆分可能永远不会发生。此外,我还必须补充一点,即使拆分Facebook,投资者也可能从中受益。\n最后一个风险是Facebook的扩张可能导致用户增长和APRU增长放缓,但是现在完全没有这种迹象。而且Facebook低迷的估值已经使得该公司像其他停滞不前的公司一样定价,这也增加了投资者的安全边际。\n结论\nFacebook被严重低估了。该公司已经证明自己是广告商吸引产品/服务关注的重要媒介。 尽管Pinterest和Snap等其他社交媒体平台非常好,并且具有吸引大量广告商兴趣的潜力,但就目前的规模和用户分布而言,Facebook仍然是最佳平台。Facebook一直在快速增长,每个季度都能报告好于预期的业绩,但市场拒绝欣赏它的价值。不过,数字不会说谎,即使花费一些时间,Facebook的估值最终也会反映出它的财务状况。\n就像世界上每家公司都存在风险一样,Facebook也存在风险,但市场已经对Facebook的定价已经是出于最差情况。考虑到所有因素,我相信Facebook当前价格水平是一个强烈的买入信号。凭借Facebook强劲的增长,其股价不仅存在巨大的上涨空间,而且考虑到该公司有吸引力的财务状况和低迷的估值,我认为Facebook将成为价值驱动的投资案例。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}