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2022-01-06

表格整得挺好，结论却是一塌糊涂。可充可换可升级，真香。超级快充背后需要电力公司能源的配置，峰值时候无法提供超级快充，谷值时候是电力能源配置的闲置，这个不能不考虑，也是硬伤。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-08

公司真金白银在大量回购，说明对自己公司未来很有信心。

小米集团：今日耗资约1.927亿港元，回购790.5万股

2021-04-16

新生事物都是从看不懂开始

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-08

$蔚来(NIO)$一图看懂2020年报

2021-04-08

$特斯拉(TSLA)$一图看懂2020年报

2021-04-02

$腾讯控股(00700)$一图看懂2020年报

2021-04-02

$小米集团-W(01810)$一图看懂2020年报

2021-04-01

$中国中车(01766)$一图看懂2020年报

2021-04-01

$中芯国际(00981)$一图看懂2020年报

2021-03-29

$腾讯音乐(TME)$一图看懂2020年报

2021-03-29

$金山办公(688111)$一图看懂2020年报

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688111\">$金山办公(688111)$</a>一图看懂2020年报","text":"$金山办公(688111)$一图看懂2020年报","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3740a177852d6a2b12d8275b8bf700a6","width":"1080","height":"7857"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352798707","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":348383114,"gmtCreate":1617889114138,"gmtModify":1617889114138,"author":{"id":"174718696707432","authorId":"174718696707432","name":"榜壹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/569c59d0883dc76e8682e94e9b2f1b34","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>一图看懂2020年报","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>一图看懂2020年报","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$一图看懂2020年报","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b98df8545353556a28aab52df2b212","width":"1080","height":"7045"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348383114","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":352798707,"gmtCreate":1617002005609,"gmtModify":1617002005609,"author":{"id":"174718696707432","authorId":"174718696707432","name":"榜壹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/569c59d0883dc76e8682e94e9b2f1b34","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688111\">$金山办公(688111)$</a>一图看懂2020年报","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688111\">$金山办公(688111)$</a>一图看懂2020年报","text":"$金山办公(688111)$一图看懂2020年报","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3740a177852d6a2b12d8275b8bf700a6","width":"1080","height":"7857"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352798707","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695269342,"gmtCreate":1641475757878,"gmtModify":1641475757878,"author":{"id":"174718696707432","authorId":"174718696707432","name":"榜壹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/569c59d0883dc76e8682e94e9b2f1b34","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"表格整得挺好，结论却是一塌糊涂。可充可换可升级，真香。超级快充背后需要电力公司能源的配置，峰值时候无法提供超级快充，谷值时候是电力能源配置的闲置，这个不能不考虑，也是硬伤。","listText":"表格整得挺好，结论却是一塌糊涂。可充可换可升级，真香。超级快充背后需要电力公司能源的配置，峰值时候无法提供超级快充，谷值时候是电力能源配置的闲置，这个不能不考虑，也是硬伤。","text":"表格整得挺好，结论却是一塌糊涂。可充可换可升级，真香。超级快充背后需要电力公司能源的配置，峰值时候无法提供超级快充，谷值时候是电力能源配置的闲置，这个不能不考虑，也是硬伤。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695269342","repostId":"2201256345","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2201256345","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为上市公司提供知识产权解决方案","home_visible":1,"media_name":"锦缎","id":"1075158368","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6edd4ef1e1f428dad9cb66d3735ea2a"},"pubTimestamp":1641436297,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2201256345?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-06 10:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来正在陷入换电悖论循环","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2201256345","media":"锦缎","summary":"想说的是，超高压快充很快就要面世了，2022年就会有大规模落地车型了，比如小鹏的G9，以及理想正在研发的纯电车型等。很显然，充电是一条没有太多逻辑悖论的路线，简单明了。关于换电站，很多人都认为，蔚来当前补能体验好，所以应该坚持投入换电。这注定是一个很难规模化的事情，无法规模化，成本就无法降下来，蔚来于是将进入一个悖论循环。蔚来选的换电这条路线，表面上看是抄了近道，实际上是与时代的潮流背道而驰。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>先上一张图</p><p>基本上这张图把换电模式和充电模式，做了个对比分析。仔细看完这张图后，我认为最重要的其实只有两点：补电时长，和产品标准。其它问题都可以从成本的角度去做一些动态分析。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb5b7dc7825436ab886303f5ef0d45e\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>关于补电时长。想说的是，超高压快充很快就要面世了，2022年就会有大规模落地车型了，比如小鹏的G9，以及理想正在研发的纯电车型等。小鹏G9充电功率可达480KW，号称充电5分钟，续航200KM。考虑到部分家庭可能会配备慢充枪，以及停车场、商超等物业会逐步配备充电桩，这样的充电效率，其实是能满足需求的。</p><p>很显然，充电是一条没有太多逻辑悖论的路线，简单明了。剩下的就是技术攻关、量产和投放密度的问题了。</p><p>关于换电站，很多人都认为，蔚来当前补能体验好，所以应该坚持投入换电。我想说的是，在讨论之前，我们应该明确一个共识：显然当前电动汽车还处于行业初期阶段，技术发展非常迅猛，远没有到定型和标准化的阶段。</p><p>基于这个认知前提，讨论起来就会容易很多。</p><p>为什么不看好换电？先来搞清楚几个问题，答案就自然了然了。</p><p>这一轮电动汽车革命，主要是两大块，一是电气化，二是智能化。大家都大谈特谈智能化才是未来电动汽车的竞争命门，能意识到这一点，说明都很有远见。</p><p>事实上，电动汽车革命，从用户感知的角度来看，分为两大块，一部分是可感知的，另一部分是不可感知的。电动汽车安静、加速响应快、智能化突出，这些都是容易被大家轻易被大家感知到的部分。而在这之下，其实隐藏着深厚的整车架构变革，是为不可感知的部分。</p><p>整车架构变革，到底有哪些呢？简单的来说就是，汽油车都有硕大的发动机，连着机械传动轴、排气管这些机械结构，直接决定了汽车底盘的基本布局。其他的零部件只能在这个基本结构的基础上进行布局设计。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782b680ac63a4b2fb88fdd1a4a3b6245\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>而电动汽车呢？则完全不一样。它没有发动机，没有传动轴，没有排气管。取而代之的是电机、电池。而且因为电池一般是板式结构，所以整车质量可以做到50:50，这给了电动汽车极大的结构设计空间。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bfac8fee0134ff6b896266d27754818\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>这么说可能没太多概念，我举几个例子你就明白了。比如电车没有发动机，所以它前盖可以设计出一个防撞梁，或者因为结构件少，整车车身可以做的更加的一体化设计，从而增强整车刚性；再比如它相比油车，各种管、轴变少了很多，取而代之的是很多的电线——有意思的事情就来了，这些电线，理论上是可以通过合理的布局设计，做到集成化的，像集成电路板一样。</p><p><b>这里提取两个关键词：一体化，和集成化。</b>所谓一体化，就是让整车的零部件化整为零，好处就是可以极大的降低供应链复杂度，提升整车的结构刚性和安全性；所谓集成化，就是电子工业百年里，各种电子架构越来越浓缩化、芯片化，并在某种意义上遵从摩尔定律。</p><p>事实上，以基本常识和高中物理知识就能知道，一体化的空间是有限的，而集成化的空间短期是看不到上限的，类似于摩尔定律。试想一下，50年代的计算机，个头如一栋房子般，而今天的计算机，可以浓缩到手掌心大小，而其处理能力超出50年代的计算机无数倍。</p><p>因此我们可以畅想，10～20年后，车身结构逐步稳定下来，而电子电气架构则不断浓缩和集成化。很多现在看起来个头都比较大的一些控制器，将来都有可能进一步缩小体积，从而可以比较容易的设计进车架中——这就是资本圈子热捧的滑板式底盘结构。</p><p>再来看电池。电池也是一种较为复杂的电化学结构件。随着电化学、储能技术的提升，未来电池容量、电池包体积还会进一步缩小缩到一定程度之后，还可以与底盘一体化成型，实际上零跑汽车就在研发这样的底盘（CBC底盘），好处是集成度高、结构紧凑，同时还能增加车身刚性和安全性。</p><p>回过头来再看换电。常识告诉我们，换电必须建立在电池的标准化基础之上的，否则换电就无从谈起，也根本没法推广。这里的电池标准化，一定得拆开来看，一是机械结构的标准化，二是电化学技术的标准化。你会发现，实际上随着电动汽车技术的快速发展，电化学技术早已建立了若干标准，而电池包的尺寸结构却是没有办法在中短期内标准化的。</p><p>原因很简单，谁不想拥有集成度更高的车身结构呢，谁不想在电气化的路上走得更越远呢？那既然没有办法做到尺寸结构的标准化，又怎能兼容层出不穷的新车型呢，更别说兼容其它车厂的各类车型。</p><p><b>这注定是一个很难规模化的事情，无法规模化，成本就无法降下来，蔚来于是将进入一个悖论循环。</b></p><p>实际上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>就是一体化、集成化的代表。特斯拉之所以毛利率高，其实主要还是依赖于对其车辆结构的重新设计。这部分用户基本无法感知，体现到车企身上，是供应链的变迁、毛利率的攀升，也是我们投资者常说的，特斯拉在制造效率上的厉害之处。</p><p>蔚来选的换电这条路线，表面上看是抄了近道，实际上是与时代的潮流背道而驰。因为换电的设计，未来底盘就无法做到CBC电池车身一体化，也必须让底盘结构设计让位于换电接口设计，进一步可以推测出，因为换电结构设计，蔚来不得不放弃很多效率优先的设计方案。</p><p>乔布斯那句说说得好，用户永远不清晰的知道自己需要什么，只要当你把完美的产品放到他眼前时，他才会惊叹说，哇，这就是我想要的。蔚来可能只是迎合了一部分用户的显性需求，显然，他们也走了一条最容易、最不费脑力思考的道路。至于国家电网、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTR\">中石油</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>等，为什么愿意与蔚来一起推换电模式呢？我想说的是，这是从不同侧面的利益出发，做出的时下最理性的选择。国家推动换电模式落地，也有资源利用、多样化探索、国际竞争方面的考量。日本政府和丰田多年来还一直在力推氢能源汽车呢，截止到目前，也没有成为市场主流。</p><p>还是那句话，当站在时代的风口时，要搞清楚核心的游戏规则是什么，不然就完全成了陪跑，最终也只是昙花一现或者泯然众人矣。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来正在陷入换电悖论循环</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来正在陷入换电悖论循环\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1075158368\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6edd4ef1e1f428dad9cb66d3735ea2a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">锦缎 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-06 10:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>先上一张图</p><p>基本上这张图把换电模式和充电模式，做了个对比分析。仔细看完这张图后，我认为最重要的其实只有两点：补电时长，和产品标准。其它问题都可以从成本的角度去做一些动态分析。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb5b7dc7825436ab886303f5ef0d45e\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>关于补电时长。想说的是，超高压快充很快就要面世了，2022年就会有大规模落地车型了，比如小鹏的G9，以及理想正在研发的纯电车型等。小鹏G9充电功率可达480KW，号称充电5分钟，续航200KM。考虑到部分家庭可能会配备慢充枪，以及停车场、商超等物业会逐步配备充电桩，这样的充电效率，其实是能满足需求的。</p><p>很显然，充电是一条没有太多逻辑悖论的路线，简单明了。剩下的就是技术攻关、量产和投放密度的问题了。</p><p>关于换电站，很多人都认为，蔚来当前补能体验好，所以应该坚持投入换电。我想说的是，在讨论之前，我们应该明确一个共识：显然当前电动汽车还处于行业初期阶段，技术发展非常迅猛，远没有到定型和标准化的阶段。</p><p>基于这个认知前提，讨论起来就会容易很多。</p><p>为什么不看好换电？先来搞清楚几个问题，答案就自然了然了。</p><p>这一轮电动汽车革命，主要是两大块，一是电气化，二是智能化。大家都大谈特谈智能化才是未来电动汽车的竞争命门，能意识到这一点，说明都很有远见。</p><p>事实上，电动汽车革命，从用户感知的角度来看，分为两大块，一部分是可感知的，另一部分是不可感知的。电动汽车安静、加速响应快、智能化突出，这些都是容易被大家轻易被大家感知到的部分。而在这之下，其实隐藏着深厚的整车架构变革，是为不可感知的部分。</p><p>整车架构变革，到底有哪些呢？简单的来说就是，汽油车都有硕大的发动机，连着机械传动轴、排气管这些机械结构，直接决定了汽车底盘的基本布局。其他的零部件只能在这个基本结构的基础上进行布局设计。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782b680ac63a4b2fb88fdd1a4a3b6245\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>而电动汽车呢？则完全不一样。它没有发动机，没有传动轴，没有排气管。取而代之的是电机、电池。而且因为电池一般是板式结构，所以整车质量可以做到50:50，这给了电动汽车极大的结构设计空间。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bfac8fee0134ff6b896266d27754818\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>这么说可能没太多概念，我举几个例子你就明白了。比如电车没有发动机，所以它前盖可以设计出一个防撞梁，或者因为结构件少，整车车身可以做的更加的一体化设计，从而增强整车刚性；再比如它相比油车，各种管、轴变少了很多，取而代之的是很多的电线——有意思的事情就来了，这些电线，理论上是可以通过合理的布局设计，做到集成化的，像集成电路板一样。</p><p><b>这里提取两个关键词：一体化，和集成化。</b>所谓一体化，就是让整车的零部件化整为零，好处就是可以极大的降低供应链复杂度，提升整车的结构刚性和安全性；所谓集成化，就是电子工业百年里，各种电子架构越来越浓缩化、芯片化，并在某种意义上遵从摩尔定律。</p><p>事实上，以基本常识和高中物理知识就能知道，一体化的空间是有限的，而集成化的空间短期是看不到上限的，类似于摩尔定律。试想一下，50年代的计算机，个头如一栋房子般，而今天的计算机，可以浓缩到手掌心大小，而其处理能力超出50年代的计算机无数倍。</p><p>因此我们可以畅想，10～20年后，车身结构逐步稳定下来，而电子电气架构则不断浓缩和集成化。很多现在看起来个头都比较大的一些控制器，将来都有可能进一步缩小体积，从而可以比较容易的设计进车架中——这就是资本圈子热捧的滑板式底盘结构。</p><p>再来看电池。电池也是一种较为复杂的电化学结构件。随着电化学、储能技术的提升，未来电池容量、电池包体积还会进一步缩小缩到一定程度之后，还可以与底盘一体化成型，实际上零跑汽车就在研发这样的底盘（CBC底盘），好处是集成度高、结构紧凑，同时还能增加车身刚性和安全性。</p><p>回过头来再看换电。常识告诉我们，换电必须建立在电池的标准化基础之上的，否则换电就无从谈起，也根本没法推广。这里的电池标准化，一定得拆开来看，一是机械结构的标准化，二是电化学技术的标准化。你会发现，实际上随着电动汽车技术的快速发展，电化学技术早已建立了若干标准，而电池包的尺寸结构却是没有办法在中短期内标准化的。</p><p>原因很简单，谁不想拥有集成度更高的车身结构呢，谁不想在电气化的路上走得更越远呢？那既然没有办法做到尺寸结构的标准化，又怎能兼容层出不穷的新车型呢，更别说兼容其它车厂的各类车型。</p><p><b>这注定是一个很难规模化的事情，无法规模化，成本就无法降下来，蔚来于是将进入一个悖论循环。</b></p><p>实际上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>就是一体化、集成化的代表。特斯拉之所以毛利率高，其实主要还是依赖于对其车辆结构的重新设计。这部分用户基本无法感知，体现到车企身上，是供应链的变迁、毛利率的攀升，也是我们投资者常说的，特斯拉在制造效率上的厉害之处。</p><p>蔚来选的换电这条路线，表面上看是抄了近道，实际上是与时代的潮流背道而驰。因为换电的设计，未来底盘就无法做到CBC电池车身一体化，也必须让底盘结构设计让位于换电接口设计，进一步可以推测出，因为换电结构设计，蔚来不得不放弃很多效率优先的设计方案。</p><p>乔布斯那句说说得好，用户永远不清晰的知道自己需要什么，只要当你把完美的产品放到他眼前时，他才会惊叹说，哇，这就是我想要的。蔚来可能只是迎合了一部分用户的显性需求，显然，他们也走了一条最容易、最不费脑力思考的道路。至于国家电网、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTR\">中石油</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>等，为什么愿意与蔚来一起推换电模式呢？我想说的是，这是从不同侧面的利益出发，做出的时下最理性的选择。国家推动换电模式落地，也有资源利用、多样化探索、国际竞争方面的考量。日本政府和丰田多年来还一直在力推氢能源汽车呢，截止到目前，也没有成为市场主流。</p><p>还是那句话，当站在时代的风口时，要搞清楚核心的游戏规则是什么，不然就完全成了陪跑，最终也只是昙花一现或者泯然众人矣。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66bf606d024c4da3900d40ecb4dc2c50","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2201256345","content_text":"先上一张图基本上这张图把换电模式和充电模式，做了个对比分析。仔细看完这张图后，我认为最重要的其实只有两点：补电时长，和产品标准。其它问题都可以从成本的角度去做一些动态分析。关于补电时长。想说的是，超高压快充很快就要面世了，2022年就会有大规模落地车型了，比如小鹏的G9，以及理想正在研发的纯电车型等。小鹏G9充电功率可达480KW，号称充电5分钟，续航200KM。考虑到部分家庭可能会配备慢充枪，以及停车场、商超等物业会逐步配备充电桩，这样的充电效率，其实是能满足需求的。很显然，充电是一条没有太多逻辑悖论的路线，简单明了。剩下的就是技术攻关、量产和投放密度的问题了。关于换电站，很多人都认为，蔚来当前补能体验好，所以应该坚持投入换电。我想说的是，在讨论之前，我们应该明确一个共识：显然当前电动汽车还处于行业初期阶段，技术发展非常迅猛，远没有到定型和标准化的阶段。基于这个认知前提，讨论起来就会容易很多。为什么不看好换电？先来搞清楚几个问题，答案就自然了然了。这一轮电动汽车革命，主要是两大块，一是电气化，二是智能化。大家都大谈特谈智能化才是未来电动汽车的竞争命门，能意识到这一点，说明都很有远见。事实上，电动汽车革命，从用户感知的角度来看，分为两大块，一部分是可感知的，另一部分是不可感知的。电动汽车安静、加速响应快、智能化突出，这些都是容易被大家轻易被大家感知到的部分。而在这之下，其实隐藏着深厚的整车架构变革，是为不可感知的部分。整车架构变革，到底有哪些呢？简单的来说就是，汽油车都有硕大的发动机，连着机械传动轴、排气管这些机械结构，直接决定了汽车底盘的基本布局。其他的零部件只能在这个基本结构的基础上进行布局设计。而电动汽车呢？则完全不一样。它没有发动机，没有传动轴，没有排气管。取而代之的是电机、电池。而且因为电池一般是板式结构，所以整车质量可以做到50:50，这给了电动汽车极大的结构设计空间。这么说可能没太多概念，我举几个例子你就明白了。比如电车没有发动机，所以它前盖可以设计出一个防撞梁，或者因为结构件少，整车车身可以做的更加的一体化设计，从而增强整车刚性；再比如它相比油车，各种管、轴变少了很多，取而代之的是很多的电线——有意思的事情就来了，这些电线，理论上是可以通过合理的布局设计，做到集成化的，像集成电路板一样。这里提取两个关键词：一体化，和集成化。所谓一体化，就是让整车的零部件化整为零，好处就是可以极大的降低供应链复杂度，提升整车的结构刚性和安全性；所谓集成化，就是电子工业百年里，各种电子架构越来越浓缩化、芯片化，并在某种意义上遵从摩尔定律。事实上，以基本常识和高中物理知识就能知道，一体化的空间是有限的，而集成化的空间短期是看不到上限的，类似于摩尔定律。试想一下，50年代的计算机，个头如一栋房子般，而今天的计算机，可以浓缩到手掌心大小，而其处理能力超出50年代的计算机无数倍。因此我们可以畅想，10～20年后，车身结构逐步稳定下来，而电子电气架构则不断浓缩和集成化。很多现在看起来个头都比较大的一些控制器，将来都有可能进一步缩小体积，从而可以比较容易的设计进车架中——这就是资本圈子热捧的滑板式底盘结构。再来看电池。电池也是一种较为复杂的电化学结构件。随着电化学、储能技术的提升，未来电池容量、电池包体积还会进一步缩小缩到一定程度之后，还可以与底盘一体化成型，实际上零跑汽车就在研发这样的底盘（CBC底盘），好处是集成度高、结构紧凑，同时还能增加车身刚性和安全性。回过头来再看换电。常识告诉我们，换电必须建立在电池的标准化基础之上的，否则换电就无从谈起，也根本没法推广。这里的电池标准化，一定得拆开来看，一是机械结构的标准化，二是电化学技术的标准化。你会发现，实际上随着电动汽车技术的快速发展，电化学技术早已建立了若干标准，而电池包的尺寸结构却是没有办法在中短期内标准化的。原因很简单，谁不想拥有集成度更高的车身结构呢，谁不想在电气化的路上走得更越远呢？那既然没有办法做到尺寸结构的标准化，又怎能兼容层出不穷的新车型呢，更别说兼容其它车厂的各类车型。这注定是一个很难规模化的事情，无法规模化，成本就无法降下来，蔚来于是将进入一个悖论循环。实际上，特斯拉就是一体化、集成化的代表。特斯拉之所以毛利率高，其实主要还是依赖于对其车辆结构的重新设计。这部分用户基本无法感知，体现到车企身上，是供应链的变迁、毛利率的攀升，也是我们投资者常说的，特斯拉在制造效率上的厉害之处。蔚来选的换电这条路线，表面上看是抄了近道，实际上是与时代的潮流背道而驰。因为换电的设计，未来底盘就无法做到CBC电池车身一体化，也必须让底盘结构设计让位于换电接口设计，进一步可以推测出，因为换电结构设计，蔚来不得不放弃很多效率优先的设计方案。乔布斯那句说说得好，用户永远不清晰的知道自己需要什么，只要当你把完美的产品放到他眼前时，他才会惊叹说，哇，这就是我想要的。蔚来可能只是迎合了一部分用户的显性需求，显然，他们也走了一条最容易、最不费脑力思考的道路。至于国家电网、中石油、宁德时代等，为什么愿意与蔚来一起推换电模式呢？我想说的是，这是从不同侧面的利益出发，做出的时下最理性的选择。国家推动换电模式落地，也有资源利用、多样化探索、国际竞争方面的考量。日本政府和丰田多年来还一直在力推氢能源汽车呢，截止到目前，也没有成为市场主流。还是那句话，当站在时代的风口时，要搞清楚核心的游戏规则是什么，不然就完全成了陪跑，最终也只是昙花一现或者泯然众人矣。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341403860,"gmtCreate":1617844281550,"gmtModify":1617844281550,"author":{"id":"174718696707432","authorId":"174718696707432","name":"榜壹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/569c59d0883dc76e8682e94e9b2f1b34","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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