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路析理
2021-02-05
$Vanguard Value ETF(VTV)$
这是啥意思?老虎能不能给我一个合理的解释
路析理
2020-12-30
$Rocket Companies(RKT)$
$Rocket Companies(RKT)$
这公司的账目完全对不上,第二季度报净利润34亿,归属上市公司的有34亿美元,按照公司的股权结构,只有A类股有经济权益,也就是每股eps 33元。考虑到7月之前还没上市,账目可能比较诡异。来看第三季度财报这公司的账务完全根据第三季度财报,归属上市公司rocket company的所有者权益是5/100。 但是总的净利润30亿,归属上市公司的利润只有5700万(应该是30亿*5/100=1.5亿)。1-9月净利润66亿中归属上市公司的利润也只有5700万,gaap下九个月的eps 是0.56。按照这个趋势,这股的动态市盈率35倍。按照我的理解,这股的大股东们把钱全圈走了,有利润转移的嫌疑,财报对利润转移说的很含糊,而且比例也根本对不上。顺便说下这股的股权结构,这个集团被两拨人控制,上市公司主体+大股东。大股东有百分之94的经济权力,但是没有投票权。但是在上市公司分为A类股和D类股,D类股有投票权没有经济权,A类股有经济权,也有投票权,我们小股民都是A类股,但是D类股(大股东持股)有百分之80以上的投票权。说白了,大股东可以为所欲为。
路析理
2020-12-30
$Rocket Companies(RKT)$
这公司的三季报不太对啊。net income 29亿,Net income attributable to Rocket Companies只有5790万?咋回事??上个季度还有34.6亿。sec官网上的数据,难道被偷吃了?
路析理
2020-12-30
$Rocket Companies(RKT)$
流通股一个亿。机构持股78/100。未平仓做空数有3672万,36/100。为什么有这么多人做空?这要是发生轧空,岂不是上天?
路析理
2020-12-30
$Rocket Companies(RKT)$
做空利率45/100???
路析理
2020-12-29
$Rocket Companies(RKT)$
想从这股上赚钱太尼玛难了
路析理
2020-12-29
$苹果(AAPL)$
有诈,大成分股全在涨。其他前期热门题材股全在跌,还是大跌。恐怕是资金在掩护跑路,加上华尔街一个劲的唱多。短期回调风险变大。
路析理
2020-12-27
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
这次有多严重。真不好说,腾讯18年遭遇国家对游戏产业的整顿,版号寒冬,未成年防沉迷系统,叠加上贸易战。股价跌了近一年,接近腰斩。这次抄底肯定是不敢抄了,基本面发生变化了,而且不确定性大大增加。卖也肯定是不会卖了,毕竟还有云服务还很有潜力,也算是被低估了。就这样挂机吧。
路析理
2020-12-19
$Rocket Companies(RKT)$
虽然我知道这庄喜欢杀期权,但是我大意了,没有闪。
路析理
2020-12-17
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
马老师这个人就是股东回报意识太差。总怕便宜了其他股东,不分红就算了,还偷偷摸摸低价剥离优质资产给自己。要不然这个价位我愿意全仓买入。
路析理
2020-12-12
$斗鱼(DOYU)$
说好一比一合并。现在虎牙市值47,斗鱼市值37。给出这么高的套利空间吗?高到我都怀疑其中有诈
路析理
2020-12-08
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
总有个感觉,特斯拉一旦加速上涨,就会带崩大盘。
路析理
2020-12-08
$逸仙电商(YSG)$
新股庄炒作的本意还是掩护大户撤退,不需要长时间吸筹,也差不多快到炒作期了。两次放量双底在一起。支撑还是挺强的。这股还是有噱头,有人气的。拉起来应该不算太难,设置好止损。盈亏比还行。我买了一点点,破位就跑路。
路析理
2020-12-08
$蔚来(NIO)$
这个价位投资价值不大。投机的话前期套牢盘太强,高位洗盘也不充分,而且进入了明显的下行通道,短期难以看到前高,盈亏比有点不划算。继续观望
路析理
2020-12-05
$Rocket Companies(RKT)$
后市看涨。原因有三1. 股票热度不减,上周主力稍微拉一拉,就有7万多的虚值的4号到期的期权跑步进场,说明散户做多意愿强。机构不愁没人接盘。18号还有差不多30万张虚值看涨。2. 此盘控盘程度高。不管业绩再怎么好,就是跌跌不休。从披露的数据看,机构持仓还是挺多的。3. 今天普涨,尤其是价值股。这股没啥消息,突然放量下跌。把上周追进来的散户全震出去了。不像是散户的合力所为。而且目前业绩也不错。美国的房地产市场依旧火爆,也是行业龙头,还带点科技属性。这个价格可以说很划算了。
路析理
2020-12-04
$陆金所(LU)$
这股没重大利好的情况下。肯定是没戏了。6号两千万股的成交量涨了百分之17。后面那天三千万股的量也就涨了百分之5。出货意图很清晰了。前天是拉高的二次出货。机构出货价在16-17元一线。反弹的高度也到不了17也得到验证。这手法,跟大A一模一样
路析理
2020-12-04
$逸仙电商(YSG)$ 上次说了涨的话要观望,涨之后也提醒了是套人行情。不知道有没有人听。目前是是有一点企稳的征兆(振幅减少,交易量上升)说明有人愿意托盘。耐心好的的可以择机进场埋伏,机构近期应该要开始爆拉掩护ipo的大户撤退。
@路析理:
$逸仙电商(YSG)$
两天前预测会连跌几天,看来是正确了。继续预测,明天大盘应该是要涨的了,尤其是纳指,可能要加速上涨。这个前提下,如果这股开盘加速下跌,且伴随成交量放大,不要慌,可以考虑进场了。如果缩量反弹就继续我就继续观望。其他情况就随机应变了。说实话,这股热门股+中概股,商业模式也好理解,增速也快。基本可以断言会被炒。小仓位买一点挺安全的。注意止损加上移动止盈就好了。
路析理
2020-12-01
$Rocket Companies(RKT)$
这股这周没戏,上次庄稍微拉了一下(急拉,套人的路子),就一群人冲进来买call,到现在这周未平仓的虚值call总共有七万多张。不杀光,不可能涨。这种类型的演习恐怕还要持续几次。周五大概率21以下。买call多也说明散户做多意愿强烈,后市还是看涨。我要是庄,就这样割期权割几个月之后爆拉。慢慢拿着,反正低位,跌也没多少下跌空间了。
路析理
2020-11-30
$苹果(AAPL)$
今天不对劲啊。发生啥了
路析理
2020-11-27
$逸仙电商(YSG)$
盲猜。套人行情。
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a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VTV\">$Vanguard Value ETF(VTV)$</a>这是啥意思?老虎能不能给我一个合理的解释","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VTV\">$Vanguard Value ETF(VTV)$</a>这是啥意思?老虎能不能给我一个合理的解释","text":"$Vanguard Value ETF(VTV)$这是啥意思?老虎能不能给我一个合理的解释","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c88eb3dfc962048472dbbdc61b79dc5","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317465935","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333400308,"gmtCreate":1609328792904,"gmtModify":1703738816328,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$Rocket Companies(RKT)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$Rocket Companies(RKT)$</a> 这公司的账目完全对不上,第二季度报净利润34亿,归属上市公司的有34亿美元,按照公司的股权结构,只有A类股有经济权益,也就是每股eps 33元。考虑到7月之前还没上市,账目可能比较诡异。来看第三季度财报这公司的账务完全根据第三季度财报,归属上市公司rocket company的所有者权益是5/100。 但是总的净利润30亿,归属上市公司的利润只有5700万(应该是30亿*5/100=1.5亿)。1-9月净利润66亿中归属上市公司的利润也只有5700万,gaap下九个月的eps 是0.56。按照这个趋势,这股的动态市盈率35倍。按照我的理解,这股的大股东们把钱全圈走了,有利润转移的嫌疑,财报对利润转移说的很含糊,而且比例也根本对不上。顺便说下这股的股权结构,这个集团被两拨人控制,上市公司主体+大股东。大股东有百分之94的经济权力,但是没有投票权。但是在上市公司分为A类股和D类股,D类股有投票权没有经济权,A类股有经济权,也有投票权,我们小股民都是A类股,但是D类股(大股东持股)有百分之80以上的投票权。说白了,大股东可以为所欲为。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$Rocket Companies(RKT)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$Rocket Companies(RKT)$</a> 这公司的账目完全对不上,第二季度报净利润34亿,归属上市公司的有34亿美元,按照公司的股权结构,只有A类股有经济权益,也就是每股eps 33元。考虑到7月之前还没上市,账目可能比较诡异。来看第三季度财报这公司的账务完全根据第三季度财报,归属上市公司rocket company的所有者权益是5/100。 但是总的净利润30亿,归属上市公司的利润只有5700万(应该是30亿*5/100=1.5亿)。1-9月净利润66亿中归属上市公司的利润也只有5700万,gaap下九个月的eps 是0.56。按照这个趋势,这股的动态市盈率35倍。按照我的理解,这股的大股东们把钱全圈走了,有利润转移的嫌疑,财报对利润转移说的很含糊,而且比例也根本对不上。顺便说下这股的股权结构,这个集团被两拨人控制,上市公司主体+大股东。大股东有百分之94的经济权力,但是没有投票权。但是在上市公司分为A类股和D类股,D类股有投票权没有经济权,A类股有经济权,也有投票权,我们小股民都是A类股,但是D类股(大股东持股)有百分之80以上的投票权。说白了,大股东可以为所欲为。","text":"$Rocket Companies(RKT)$ $Rocket Companies(RKT)$ 这公司的账目完全对不上,第二季度报净利润34亿,归属上市公司的有34亿美元,按照公司的股权结构,只有A类股有经济权益,也就是每股eps 33元。考虑到7月之前还没上市,账目可能比较诡异。来看第三季度财报这公司的账务完全根据第三季度财报,归属上市公司rocket company的所有者权益是5/100。 但是总的净利润30亿,归属上市公司的利润只有5700万(应该是30亿*5/100=1.5亿)。1-9月净利润66亿中归属上市公司的利润也只有5700万,gaap下九个月的eps 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今天普涨,尤其是价值股。这股没啥消息,突然放量下跌。把上周追进来的散户全震出去了。不像是散户的合力所为。而且目前业绩也不错。美国的房地产市场依旧火爆,也是行业龙头,还带点科技属性。这个价格可以说很划算了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396214882","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3549309938028373","authorId":"3549309938028373","name":"儿子娃娃","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f9d46104c16089c4424e37f8f790ee","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3549309938028373","idStr":"3549309938028373"},"content":"问题就是啥时候涨呢 横太久了","text":"问题就是啥时候涨呢 横太久了","html":"问题就是啥时候涨呢 横太久了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396170733,"gmtCreate":1607078396422,"gmtModify":1703846282995,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">$陆金所(LU)$</a>这股没重大利好的情况下。肯定是没戏了。6号两千万股的成交量涨了百分之17。后面那天三千万股的量也就涨了百分之5。出货意图很清晰了。前天是拉高的二次出货。机构出货价在16-17元一线。反弹的高度也到不了17也得到验证。这手法,跟大A一模一样","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">$陆金所(LU)$</a>这股没重大利好的情况下。肯定是没戏了。6号两千万股的成交量涨了百分之17。后面那天三千万股的量也就涨了百分之5。出货意图很清晰了。前天是拉高的二次出货。机构出货价在16-17元一线。反弹的高度也到不了17也得到验证。这手法,跟大A一模一样","text":"$陆金所(LU)$这股没重大利好的情况下。肯定是没戏了。6号两千万股的成交量涨了百分之17。后面那天三千万股的量也就涨了百分之5。出货意图很清晰了。前天是拉高的二次出货。机构出货价在16-17元一线。反弹的高度也到不了17也得到验证。这手法,跟大A一模一样","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396170733","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396187803,"gmtCreate":1607068757202,"gmtModify":1703846224999,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$逸仙电商(YSG)$ 上次说了涨的话要观望,涨之后也提醒了是套人行情。不知道有没有人听。目前是是有一点企稳的征兆(振幅减少,交易量上升)说明有人愿意托盘。耐心好的的可以择机进场埋伏,机构近期应该要开始爆拉掩护ipo的大户撤退。","listText":"$逸仙电商(YSG)$ 上次说了涨的话要观望,涨之后也提醒了是套人行情。不知道有没有人听。目前是是有一点企稳的征兆(振幅减少,交易量上升)说明有人愿意托盘。耐心好的的可以择机进场埋伏,机构近期应该要开始爆拉掩护ipo的大户撤退。","text":"$逸仙电商(YSG)$ 上次说了涨的话要观望,涨之后也提醒了是套人行情。不知道有没有人听。目前是是有一点企稳的征兆(振幅减少,交易量上升)说明有人愿意托盘。耐心好的的可以择机进场埋伏,机构近期应该要开始爆拉掩护ipo的大户撤退。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396187803","repostId":"393757825","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":393757825,"gmtCreate":1606395257567,"gmtModify":1703842975820,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">$逸仙电商(YSG)$</a>两天前预测会连跌几天,看来是正确了。继续预测,明天大盘应该是要涨的了,尤其是纳指,可能要加速上涨。这个前提下,如果这股开盘加速下跌,且伴随成交量放大,不要慌,可以考虑进场了。如果缩量反弹就继续我就继续观望。其他情况就随机应变了。说实话,这股热门股+中概股,商业模式也好理解,增速也快。基本可以断言会被炒。小仓位买一点挺安全的。注意止损加上移动止盈就好了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">$逸仙电商(YSG)$</a>两天前预测会连跌几天,看来是正确了。继续预测,明天大盘应该是要涨的了,尤其是纳指,可能要加速上涨。这个前提下,如果这股开盘加速下跌,且伴随成交量放大,不要慌,可以考虑进场了。如果缩量反弹就继续我就继续观望。其他情况就随机应变了。说实话,这股热门股+中概股,商业模式也好理解,增速也快。基本可以断言会被炒。小仓位买一点挺安全的。注意止损加上移动止盈就好了。","text":"$逸仙电商(YSG)$两天前预测会连跌几天,看来是正确了。继续预测,明天大盘应该是要涨的了,尤其是纳指,可能要加速上涨。这个前提下,如果这股开盘加速下跌,且伴随成交量放大,不要慌,可以考虑进场了。如果缩量反弹就继续我就继续观望。其他情况就随机应变了。说实话,这股热门股+中概股,商业模式也好理解,增速也快。基本可以断言会被炒。小仓位买一点挺安全的。注意止损加上移动止盈就好了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393757825","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3555651212204767","authorId":"3555651212204767","name":"早睡魔鬼","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3555651212204767","idStr":"3555651212204767"},"content":"爆拉是到多少","text":"爆拉是到多少","html":"爆拉是到多少"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391780557,"gmtCreate":1606760310479,"gmtModify":1703844305112,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$Rocket Companies(RKT)$</a>这股这周没戏,上次庄稍微拉了一下(急拉,套人的路子),就一群人冲进来买call,到现在这周未平仓的虚值call总共有七万多张。不杀光,不可能涨。这种类型的演习恐怕还要持续几次。周五大概率21以下。买call多也说明散户做多意愿强烈,后市还是看涨。我要是庄,就这样割期权割几个月之后爆拉。慢慢拿着,反正低位,跌也没多少下跌空间了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$Rocket Companies(RKT)$</a>这股这周没戏,上次庄稍微拉了一下(急拉,套人的路子),就一群人冲进来买call,到现在这周未平仓的虚值call总共有七万多张。不杀光,不可能涨。这种类型的演习恐怕还要持续几次。周五大概率21以下。买call多也说明散户做多意愿强烈,后市还是看涨。我要是庄,就这样割期权割几个月之后爆拉。慢慢拿着,反正低位,跌也没多少下跌空间了。","text":"$Rocket Companies(RKT)$这股这周没戏,上次庄稍微拉了一下(急拉,套人的路子),就一群人冲进来买call,到现在这周未平仓的虚值call总共有七万多张。不杀光,不可能涨。这种类型的演习恐怕还要持续几次。周五大概率21以下。买call多也说明散户做多意愿强烈,后市还是看涨。我要是庄,就这样割期权割几个月之后爆拉。慢慢拿着,反正低位,跌也没多少下跌空间了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391780557","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5908,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557269796318359","authorId":"3557269796318359","name":"胖虎0706","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af6b26fc2a094342550f4ba575bd3934","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3557269796318359","idStr":"3557269796318359"},"content":"不准就有赚钱机会了 我也希望不准。恶心就恶心在玩正股玩期权都让你有来 无回","text":"不准就有赚钱机会了 我也希望不准。恶心就恶心在玩正股玩期权都让你有来 无回","html":"不准就有赚钱机会了 我也希望不准。恶心就恶心在玩正股玩期权都让你有来 无回"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391488686,"gmtCreate":1606747815045,"gmtModify":1703844172127,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>今天不对劲啊。发生啥了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>今天不对劲啊。发生啥了","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$今天不对劲啊。发生啥了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391488686","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391369759,"gmtCreate":1606488375371,"gmtModify":1703843354589,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">$逸仙电商(YSG)$</a>盲猜。套人行情。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">$逸仙电商(YSG)$</a>盲猜。套人行情。","text":"$逸仙电商(YSG)$盲猜。套人行情。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391369759","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":307674742,"gmtCreate":1605550957986,"gmtModify":1703838273871,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>目前支持蔚来的同志的出发点基本可以归于以下几点。1,高端品牌塑造到位。2,换电模式前途无限。3,ZF支持新能源。4,电动车前景好。5,管理层靠谱。6,用户体验超好。7,自动驾驶前途无限。8,传统车厂没战斗力我觉得这些这些点都对,但是讨论的前提是,目前蔚来是一家600亿美元市值的公司。下面说说我的看法1,高端品牌塑造到位: 蔚来是中国的国货之光,目前卖的最好的国产中高端车品牌,这个应该是毫无疑问的。但是必须认识到,到现在也没卖到10万辆。这是个小众认可的高端品牌,还是个大众认可的高端品牌?我认为,目前还是个小众认可的高端品牌。对比一下,宝马一个月要卖7万辆左右,宝马市值440亿美元左右。想从小众认可的品牌跃升至大众认可的高端品牌,任重而道远。塑造高端品牌是个很奇怪的事情,当年美国制造业雄霸天下,但是在品牌塑造力方面远不及欧洲,比如汽车,高端的全在德国,奢侈品主要在意大利法国。原因就在于血统,讲究的是传承。本质就是,美国当年作为new money,对欧洲old money崇拜。如今中国制造业雄霸天下,但是普罗大众是否能对自主品牌如此有信心?不好说(注意,我说的是普罗大众)2,换电模式前途无限。我个人很看好,就是前期费钱点,当然都是小钱。3,ZF支持新能源。邱国鹭一直有一个观点,但凡是ZF支持的行业,很难出大牛股(妖股横行)。逻辑在于,过剩产能难以无法退出,价格战混乱,优质的企业难以用品质提高市场占用率。现在特斯拉增长乏力,疯狂降价,和特斯拉正面对抗的小鹏10月销量就开始出现了下滑,届时蔚来能不能幸免于遇难?4,电动车前景好:树大招风,都知道前景好,都来抢滩登陆。虽然互联网造车新势力被淘汰的没几家了,但是还是有新入局者,加上传统车企转型。竞争惨烈,对比就是中国2000-2005年的家电","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>目前支持蔚来的同志的出发点基本可以归于以下几点。1,高端品牌塑造到位。2,换电模式前途无限。3,ZF支持新能源。4,电动车前景好。5,管理层靠谱。6,用户体验超好。7,自动驾驶前途无限。8,传统车厂没战斗力我觉得这些这些点都对,但是讨论的前提是,目前蔚来是一家600亿美元市值的公司。下面说说我的看法1,高端品牌塑造到位: 蔚来是中国的国货之光,目前卖的最好的国产中高端车品牌,这个应该是毫无疑问的。但是必须认识到,到现在也没卖到10万辆。这是个小众认可的高端品牌,还是个大众认可的高端品牌?我认为,目前还是个小众认可的高端品牌。对比一下,宝马一个月要卖7万辆左右,宝马市值440亿美元左右。想从小众认可的品牌跃升至大众认可的高端品牌,任重而道远。塑造高端品牌是个很奇怪的事情,当年美国制造业雄霸天下,但是在品牌塑造力方面远不及欧洲,比如汽车,高端的全在德国,奢侈品主要在意大利法国。原因就在于血统,讲究的是传承。本质就是,美国当年作为new money,对欧洲old money崇拜。如今中国制造业雄霸天下,但是普罗大众是否能对自主品牌如此有信心?不好说(注意,我说的是普罗大众)2,换电模式前途无限。我个人很看好,就是前期费钱点,当然都是小钱。3,ZF支持新能源。邱国鹭一直有一个观点,但凡是ZF支持的行业,很难出大牛股(妖股横行)。逻辑在于,过剩产能难以无法退出,价格战混乱,优质的企业难以用品质提高市场占用率。现在特斯拉增长乏力,疯狂降价,和特斯拉正面对抗的小鹏10月销量就开始出现了下滑,届时蔚来能不能幸免于遇难?4,电动车前景好:树大招风,都知道前景好,都来抢滩登陆。虽然互联网造车新势力被淘汰的没几家了,但是还是有新入局者,加上传统车企转型。竞争惨烈,对比就是中国2000-2005年的家电","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$目前支持蔚来的同志的出发点基本可以归于以下几点。1,高端品牌塑造到位。2,换电模式前途无限。3,ZF支持新能源。4,电动车前景好。5,管理层靠谱。6,用户体验超好。7,自动驾驶前途无限。8,传统车厂没战斗力我觉得这些这些点都对,但是讨论的前提是,目前蔚来是一家600亿美元市值的公司。下面说说我的看法1,高端品牌塑造到位: 蔚来是中国的国货之光,目前卖的最好的国产中高端车品牌,这个应该是毫无疑问的。但是必须认识到,到现在也没卖到10万辆。这是个小众认可的高端品牌,还是个大众认可的高端品牌?我认为,目前还是个小众认可的高端品牌。对比一下,宝马一个月要卖7万辆左右,宝马市值440亿美元左右。想从小众认可的品牌跃升至大众认可的高端品牌,任重而道远。塑造高端品牌是个很奇怪的事情,当年美国制造业雄霸天下,但是在品牌塑造力方面远不及欧洲,比如汽车,高端的全在德国,奢侈品主要在意大利法国。原因就在于血统,讲究的是传承。本质就是,美国当年作为new money,对欧洲old money崇拜。如今中国制造业雄霸天下,但是普罗大众是否能对自主品牌如此有信心?不好说(注意,我说的是普罗大众)2,换电模式前途无限。我个人很看好,就是前期费钱点,当然都是小钱。3,ZF支持新能源。邱国鹭一直有一个观点,但凡是ZF支持的行业,很难出大牛股(妖股横行)。逻辑在于,过剩产能难以无法退出,价格战混乱,优质的企业难以用品质提高市场占用率。现在特斯拉增长乏力,疯狂降价,和特斯拉正面对抗的小鹏10月销量就开始出现了下滑,届时蔚来能不能幸免于遇难?4,电动车前景好:树大招风,都知道前景好,都来抢滩登陆。虽然互联网造车新势力被淘汰的没几家了,但是还是有新入局者,加上传统车企转型。竞争惨烈,对比就是中国2000-2005年的家电","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":382,"commentSize":116,"repostSize":49,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307674742","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":42230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3463617863458404","authorId":"3463617863458404","name":"郭靖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fbe168b9ffe9691ded6224db2612961","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3463617863458404","idStr":"3463617863458404"},"content":"十分有道理,然后继续逢跌加仓","text":"十分有道理,然后继续逢跌加仓","html":"十分有道理,然后继续逢跌加仓"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979910982,"gmtCreate":1597965140646,"gmtModify":1704217434784,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"title":"说一个换电模式带来的优点","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>电池折旧被均摊了,所以根据计算保守估算17年感受不到明显电量损失,特别适合每天跑的比较多的消费者。同时也可以让蔚来在电池选择上更加激进(减少对电池循环次数的次数的关注,而重点关注容量)。 因为蔚来有换电体系存在,所以电池的折旧速度基本上是所有用户的平均折旧速度。(电量剩余大于百分之80) 蔚来第五万辆下线的时候车主总共跑了8亿公里。当时大概有4.6万辆车销售出去了,蔚来从18年开始卖车到现在,按照一个车平均跑了10个月计算。也就是每车每月要跑大概1700 km。 按照目前70km电池跑350km 计算,国标是1000个循环最多掉百分之20的电。350 * 1000 /1700 / 12 = 17.15年。(这个数值很保守原因有三,1:蔚来用的电池算比较好的,循环次数肯定是高于国标循环次数。2:销量在提升,有源源不断的新电池补充,3,蔚来说他们对电池统一管理,可以提升寿命)","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>电池折旧被均摊了,所以根据计算保守估算17年感受不到明显电量损失,特别适合每天跑的比较多的消费者。同时也可以让蔚来在电池选择上更加激进(减少对电池循环次数的次数的关注,而重点关注容量)。 因为蔚来有换电体系存在,所以电池的折旧速度基本上是所有用户的平均折旧速度。(电量剩余大于百分之80) 蔚来第五万辆下线的时候车主总共跑了8亿公里。当时大概有4.6万辆车销售出去了,蔚来从18年开始卖车到现在,按照一个车平均跑了10个月计算。也就是每车每月要跑大概1700 km。 按照目前70km电池跑350km 计算,国标是1000个循环最多掉百分之20的电。350 * 1000 /1700 / 12 = 17.15年。(这个数值很保守原因有三,1:蔚来用的电池算比较好的,循环次数肯定是高于国标循环次数。2:销量在提升,有源源不断的新电池补充,3,蔚来说他们对电池统一管理,可以提升寿命)","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$电池折旧被均摊了,所以根据计算保守估算17年感受不到明显电量损失,特别适合每天跑的比较多的消费者。同时也可以让蔚来在电池选择上更加激进(减少对电池循环次数的次数的关注,而重点关注容量)。 因为蔚来有换电体系存在,所以电池的折旧速度基本上是所有用户的平均折旧速度。(电量剩余大于百分之80) 蔚来第五万辆下线的时候车主总共跑了8亿公里。当时大概有4.6万辆车销售出去了,蔚来从18年开始卖车到现在,按照一个车平均跑了10个月计算。也就是每车每月要跑大概1700 km。 按照目前70km电池跑350km 计算,国标是1000个循环最多掉百分之20的电。350 * 1000 /1700 / 12 = 17.15年。(这个数值很保守原因有三,1:蔚来用的电池算比较好的,循环次数肯定是高于国标循环次数。2:销量在提升,有源源不断的新电池补充,3,蔚来说他们对电池统一管理,可以提升寿命)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979910982","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560836985335306","authorId":"3560836985335306","name":"2020看世界","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3560836985335306","idStr":"3560836985335306"},"content":"我不看好这个模式。电池不可能多年不更新,老旧电池和新电池不可能一样。车子不同品牌间不能混用,保有量是多少?车多以后排队成本怎么算?至今为止没看过一家车企能做成中石化,特斯拉也只是通用的充电桩模式而已","text":"我不看好这个模式。电池不可能多年不更新,老旧电池和新电池不可能一样。车子不同品牌间不能混用,保有量是多少?车多以后排队成本怎么算?至今为止没看过一家车企能做成中石化,特斯拉也只是通用的充电桩模式而已","html":"我不看好这个模式。电池不可能多年不更新,老旧电池和新电池不可能一样。车子不同品牌间不能混用,保有量是多少?车多以后排队成本怎么算?至今为止没看过一家车企能做成中石化,特斯拉也只是通用的充电桩模式而已"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":947895404,"gmtCreate":1597250314308,"gmtModify":1704215123229,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>很多人认为是利好出尽就是利空,获利盘出逃。这也是不可能的。过去半个月洗盘洗到后来获利的也不多。而去能量也不可能这么大。还有人认为科研投入不够也是不合理的。昨天的暴跌显然是机构故意打压,要不然也不可能开盘就出现三分钟自由落体。但是应该不是出货。看下历史筹码,集中在12.5块钱,机构一下子开盘就打压到13.7左右,然后持续下跌到最后12.99。不可能为了这么一块多钱的差价去坐庄,肯定是入不敷出。而且就算是要出货,肯定是乘着这次财报利好边拉边出。不会一下子砸盘。所以我的猜测是庄家打压股票是为了后面能低价吸筹。这一次财报显示出蔚来基本面发生根本性的变化。而去成长速度也够快。机构想乘机入场。所以控盘来获得更低的价格。看看各个投资频道,很多价值投资的都开仓蔚来了。顺便杀一杀期权。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>很多人认为是利好出尽就是利空,获利盘出逃。这也是不可能的。过去半个月洗盘洗到后来获利的也不多。而去能量也不可能这么大。还有人认为科研投入不够也是不合理的。昨天的暴跌显然是机构故意打压,要不然也不可能开盘就出现三分钟自由落体。但是应该不是出货。看下历史筹码,集中在12.5块钱,机构一下子开盘就打压到13.7左右,然后持续下跌到最后12.99。不可能为了这么一块多钱的差价去坐庄,肯定是入不敷出。而且就算是要出货,肯定是乘着这次财报利好边拉边出。不会一下子砸盘。所以我的猜测是庄家打压股票是为了后面能低价吸筹。这一次财报显示出蔚来基本面发生根本性的变化。而去成长速度也够快。机构想乘机入场。所以控盘来获得更低的价格。看看各个投资频道,很多价值投资的都开仓蔚来了。顺便杀一杀期权。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$很多人认为是利好出尽就是利空,获利盘出逃。这也是不可能的。过去半个月洗盘洗到后来获利的也不多。而去能量也不可能这么大。还有人认为科研投入不够也是不合理的。昨天的暴跌显然是机构故意打压,要不然也不可能开盘就出现三分钟自由落体。但是应该不是出货。看下历史筹码,集中在12.5块钱,机构一下子开盘就打压到13.7左右,然后持续下跌到最后12.99。不可能为了这么一块多钱的差价去坐庄,肯定是入不敷出。而且就算是要出货,肯定是乘着这次财报利好边拉边出。不会一下子砸盘。所以我的猜测是庄家打压股票是为了后面能低价吸筹。这一次财报显示出蔚来基本面发生根本性的变化。而去成长速度也够快。机构想乘机入场。所以控盘来获得更低的价格。看看各个投资频道,很多价值投资的都开仓蔚来了。顺便杀一杀期权。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/947895404","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3493392540676318","authorId":"3493392540676318","name":"蝉兵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/255e3e77f06096fa05c6634a676f46eb","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3493392540676318","idStr":"3493392540676318"},"content":"真正原因应该是你最后一句,开盘抛售,逼得14以上的call(这些call财报前全高波动吃了溢价,亏损额放大)大量平仓,虽然吐了一些筹码出来,但仍然还是赚得盆满钵满。还有一个数据印证了这个观点,就是昨晚的换手率二十几,这在蔚来身上算是少的,说明他们也不想出手太多筹码","text":"真正原因应该是你最后一句,开盘抛售,逼得14以上的call(这些call财报前全高波动吃了溢价,亏损额放大)大量平仓,虽然吐了一些筹码出来,但仍然还是赚得盆满钵满。还有一个数据印证了这个观点,就是昨晚的换手率二十几,这在蔚来身上算是少的,说明他们也不想出手太多筹码","html":"真正原因应该是你最后一句,开盘抛售,逼得14以上的call(这些call财报前全高波动吃了溢价,亏损额放大)大量平仓,虽然吐了一些筹码出来,但仍然还是赚得盆满钵满。还有一个数据印证了这个观点,就是昨晚的换手率二十几,这在蔚来身上算是少的,说明他们也不想出手太多筹码"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393757825,"gmtCreate":1606395257567,"gmtModify":1703842975820,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">$逸仙电商(YSG)$</a>两天前预测会连跌几天,看来是正确了。继续预测,明天大盘应该是要涨的了,尤其是纳指,可能要加速上涨。这个前提下,如果这股开盘加速下跌,且伴随成交量放大,不要慌,可以考虑进场了。如果缩量反弹就继续我就继续观望。其他情况就随机应变了。说实话,这股热门股+中概股,商业模式也好理解,增速也快。基本可以断言会被炒。小仓位买一点挺安全的。注意止损加上移动止盈就好了。","listText":"<a 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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$Rocket Companies(RKT)$</a> 这公司的三季报不太对啊。net income 29亿,Net income attributable to Rocket Companies只有5790万?咋回事??上个季度还有34.6亿。sec官网上的数据,难道被偷吃了?","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$Rocket Companies(RKT)$</a> 这公司的三季报不太对啊。net income 29亿,Net income attributable to Rocket Companies只有5790万?咋回事??上个季度还有34.6亿。sec官网上的数据,难道被偷吃了?","text":"$Rocket Companies(RKT)$ 这公司的三季报不太对啊。net income 29亿,Net income attributable to Rocket Companies只有5790万?咋回事??上个季度还有34.6亿。sec官网上的数据,难道被偷吃了?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333206481","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4905,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3549309938028373","authorId":"3549309938028373","name":"儿子娃娃","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f9d46104c16089c4424e37f8f790ee","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3549309938028373","idStr":"3549309938028373"},"content":"都让大股东拿走了","text":"都让大股东拿走了","html":"都让大股东拿走了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391780557,"gmtCreate":1606760310479,"gmtModify":1703844305112,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$Rocket Companies(RKT)$</a>这股这周没戏,上次庄稍微拉了一下(急拉,套人的路子),就一群人冲进来买call,到现在这周未平仓的虚值call总共有七万多张。不杀光,不可能涨。这种类型的演习恐怕还要持续几次。周五大概率21以下。买call多也说明散户做多意愿强烈,后市还是看涨。我要是庄,就这样割期权割几个月之后爆拉。慢慢拿着,反正低位,跌也没多少下跌空间了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$Rocket Companies(RKT)$</a>这股这周没戏,上次庄稍微拉了一下(急拉,套人的路子),就一群人冲进来买call,到现在这周未平仓的虚值call总共有七万多张。不杀光,不可能涨。这种类型的演习恐怕还要持续几次。周五大概率21以下。买call多也说明散户做多意愿强烈,后市还是看涨。我要是庄,就这样割期权割几个月之后爆拉。慢慢拿着,反正低位,跌也没多少下跌空间了。","text":"$Rocket Companies(RKT)$这股这周没戏,上次庄稍微拉了一下(急拉,套人的路子),就一群人冲进来买call,到现在这周未平仓的虚值call总共有七万多张。不杀光,不可能涨。这种类型的演习恐怕还要持续几次。周五大概率21以下。买call多也说明散户做多意愿强烈,后市还是看涨。我要是庄,就这样割期权割几个月之后爆拉。慢慢拿着,反正低位,跌也没多少下跌空间了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391780557","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5908,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557269796318359","authorId":"3557269796318359","name":"胖虎0706","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af6b26fc2a094342550f4ba575bd3934","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3557269796318359","idStr":"3557269796318359"},"content":"不准就有赚钱机会了 我也希望不准。恶心就恶心在玩正股玩期权都让你有来 无回","text":"不准就有赚钱机会了 我也希望不准。恶心就恶心在玩正股玩期权都让你有来 无回","html":"不准就有赚钱机会了 我也希望不准。恶心就恶心在玩正股玩期权都让你有来 无回"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":971458843,"gmtCreate":1599036503582,"gmtModify":1704221154621,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>理想one车是好车,但是凭什么估值160亿美元呢。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>理想one车是好车,但是凭什么估值160亿美元呢。","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$理想one车是好车,但是凭什么估值160亿美元呢。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/971458843","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":392382219,"gmtCreate":1607369115531,"gmtModify":1703847469569,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>总有个感觉,特斯拉一旦加速上涨,就会带崩大盘。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>总有个感觉,特斯拉一旦加速上涨,就会带崩大盘。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$总有个感觉,特斯拉一旦加速上涨,就会带崩大盘。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/392382219","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396214882,"gmtCreate":1607120901746,"gmtModify":1703846623015,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$Rocket Companies(RKT)$</a>后市看涨。原因有三1. 股票热度不减,上周主力稍微拉一拉,就有7万多的虚值的4号到期的期权跑步进场,说明散户做多意愿强。机构不愁没人接盘。18号还有差不多30万张虚值看涨。2. 此盘控盘程度高。不管业绩再怎么好,就是跌跌不休。从披露的数据看,机构持仓还是挺多的。3. 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今天普涨,尤其是价值股。这股没啥消息,突然放量下跌。把上周追进来的散户全震出去了。不像是散户的合力所为。而且目前业绩也不错。美国的房地产市场依旧火爆,也是行业龙头,还带点科技属性。这个价格可以说很划算了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396214882","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3549309938028373","authorId":"3549309938028373","name":"儿子娃娃","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f9d46104c16089c4424e37f8f790ee","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3549309938028373","idStr":"3549309938028373"},"content":"问题就是啥时候涨呢 横太久了","text":"问题就是啥时候涨呢 横太久了","html":"问题就是啥时候涨呢 横太久了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396187803,"gmtCreate":1607068757202,"gmtModify":1703846224999,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$逸仙电商(YSG)$ 上次说了涨的话要观望,涨之后也提醒了是套人行情。不知道有没有人听。目前是是有一点企稳的征兆(振幅减少,交易量上升)说明有人愿意托盘。耐心好的的可以择机进场埋伏,机构近期应该要开始爆拉掩护ipo的大户撤退。","listText":"$逸仙电商(YSG)$ 上次说了涨的话要观望,涨之后也提醒了是套人行情。不知道有没有人听。目前是是有一点企稳的征兆(振幅减少,交易量上升)说明有人愿意托盘。耐心好的的可以择机进场埋伏,机构近期应该要开始爆拉掩护ipo的大户撤退。","text":"$逸仙电商(YSG)$ 上次说了涨的话要观望,涨之后也提醒了是套人行情。不知道有没有人听。目前是是有一点企稳的征兆(振幅减少,交易量上升)说明有人愿意托盘。耐心好的的可以择机进场埋伏,机构近期应该要开始爆拉掩护ipo的大户撤退。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396187803","repostId":"393757825","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":393757825,"gmtCreate":1606395257567,"gmtModify":1703842975820,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">$逸仙电商(YSG)$</a>两天前预测会连跌几天,看来是正确了。继续预测,明天大盘应该是要涨的了,尤其是纳指,可能要加速上涨。这个前提下,如果这股开盘加速下跌,且伴随成交量放大,不要慌,可以考虑进场了。如果缩量反弹就继续我就继续观望。其他情况就随机应变了。说实话,这股热门股+中概股,商业模式也好理解,增速也快。基本可以断言会被炒。小仓位买一点挺安全的。注意止损加上移动止盈就好了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">$逸仙电商(YSG)$</a>两天前预测会连跌几天,看来是正确了。继续预测,明天大盘应该是要涨的了,尤其是纳指,可能要加速上涨。这个前提下,如果这股开盘加速下跌,且伴随成交量放大,不要慌,可以考虑进场了。如果缩量反弹就继续我就继续观望。其他情况就随机应变了。说实话,这股热门股+中概股,商业模式也好理解,增速也快。基本可以断言会被炒。小仓位买一点挺安全的。注意止损加上移动止盈就好了。","text":"$逸仙电商(YSG)$两天前预测会连跌几天,看来是正确了。继续预测,明天大盘应该是要涨的了,尤其是纳指,可能要加速上涨。这个前提下,如果这股开盘加速下跌,且伴随成交量放大,不要慌,可以考虑进场了。如果缩量反弹就继续我就继续观望。其他情况就随机应变了。说实话,这股热门股+中概股,商业模式也好理解,增速也快。基本可以断言会被炒。小仓位买一点挺安全的。注意止损加上移动止盈就好了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393757825","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3555651212204767","authorId":"3555651212204767","name":"早睡魔鬼","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3555651212204767","idStr":"3555651212204767"},"content":"爆拉是到多少","text":"爆拉是到多少","html":"爆拉是到多少"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393363002,"gmtCreate":1606231731106,"gmtModify":1703841964767,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FROG\">$JFrog Ltd(FROG)$</a>这股明天解禁一大批股票。这种事情肯定是和承销商商量好的,承销商大摩小摩都是有实力的,加上现在热钱多,一起配合拉高出货的概率比较大。分时图急拉缓降。控盘程度比较高。跌了这么久了,再砸就砸到了首日的开盘价了,对承销商的声誉不好。总的说来,可以拿一点点仓位赌博玩一玩。设置好止损。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FROG\">$JFrog Ltd(FROG)$</a>这股明天解禁一大批股票。这种事情肯定是和承销商商量好的,承销商大摩小摩都是有实力的,加上现在热钱多,一起配合拉高出货的概率比较大。分时图急拉缓降。控盘程度比较高。跌了这么久了,再砸就砸到了首日的开盘价了,对承销商的声誉不好。总的说来,可以拿一点点仓位赌博玩一玩。设置好止损。","text":"$JFrog Ltd(FROG)$这股明天解禁一大批股票。这种事情肯定是和承销商商量好的,承销商大摩小摩都是有实力的,加上现在热钱多,一起配合拉高出货的概率比较大。分时图急拉缓降。控盘程度比较高。跌了这么久了,再砸就砸到了首日的开盘价了,对承销商的声誉不好。总的说来,可以拿一点点仓位赌博玩一玩。设置好止损。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393363002","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560813204366302","authorId":"3560813204366302","name":"透明人gf","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3560813204366302","idStr":"3560813204366302"},"content":"请问下哪里看解禁股票信息,招股书吗?谢谢啦","text":"请问下哪里看解禁股票信息,招股书吗?谢谢啦","html":"请问下哪里看解禁股票信息,招股书吗?谢谢啦"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":978048090,"gmtCreate":1599076686910,"gmtModify":1704221429621,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>竟然有人觉得王兴站台。跟着大佬肯定没错。我必须说王兴和美团目前在投资界无优秀战绩,不算顶级资本,甚至有点不入流。顶级资本例如IDG,红衫,腾讯等等都不愿意C轮D轮接盘理想。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>竟然有人觉得王兴站台。跟着大佬肯定没错。我必须说王兴和美团目前在投资界无优秀战绩,不算顶级资本,甚至有点不入流。顶级资本例如IDG,红衫,腾讯等等都不愿意C轮D轮接盘理想。","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$竟然有人觉得王兴站台。跟着大佬肯定没错。我必须说王兴和美团目前在投资界无优秀战绩,不算顶级资本,甚至有点不入流。顶级资本例如IDG,红衫,腾讯等等都不愿意C轮D轮接盘理想。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978048090","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":962,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":970172281,"gmtCreate":1597724945343,"gmtModify":1704216441338,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一本正经放屁。老虎为什么给我推送这种垃圾。三电研发已经搞差不多了,车型研发也有了经验。海外研发太费钱了,转移到国内。你要么就掰开揉碎了说说哪部分研发被砍了会影响未来发展。","listText":"一本正经放屁。老虎为什么给我推送这种垃圾。三电研发已经搞差不多了,车型研发也有了经验。海外研发太费钱了,转移到国内。你要么就掰开揉碎了说说哪部分研发被砍了会影响未来发展。","text":"一本正经放屁。老虎为什么给我推送这种垃圾。三电研发已经搞差不多了,车型研发也有了经验。海外研发太费钱了,转移到国内。你要么就掰开揉碎了说说哪部分研发被砍了会影响未来发展。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970172281","repostId":"1199767469","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199767469","pubTimestamp":1597716870,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199767469?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-18 10:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"李斌向资本低头,蔚来能涨40倍?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199767469","media":"锦缎","summary":"投降于资本市场的蔚来,对于用户来说,未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。","content":"<p>优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头,在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间,它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯(Jeff Bezos),天不生杰夫·贝索斯,长期主义万古如长夜:</p><p>1997年IPO时投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>,23年来2000倍回报,年化收益率39%。</p><p>长期的选择带来长期的收益,企业状况会越来越好;短期的选择带来短期的收益,企业状况刚开始还可以,以后可能每况愈下。<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>走在后面这条路上,它向资本市场低头了。</b></p><p>如果一家企业向资本市场投降,向股东投降,最显著的观察点是减少了策略性成本。所谓策略性可变成本,即直接涉及并提高长期业绩表现的成本,最典型的莫过于<b>研发投入</b>。</p><p><b>前两天看到有个魔怔投资者说,蔚来要涨40倍。</b>呵呵,从来没听说处于追赶段位的公司,研发投入不跟上,股价还能涨40倍的。</p><p>话说回来,之所以短期利益变得更加重要,也许是因为李斌真的穷怕了。困难重重之下终于拿到融资,但这并不简单,也不是毫无条件的。安徽这70亿元的战略投资有严苛的对赌协议,如果完不成,蔚来得以8.5%的年复合增长率回购其股份。</p><p><i><b>01、</b></i><b>“投降”趋势</b></p><p>蔚来在研发投入上的态度,从数字上来看一览无余。总结下来是:</p><ul><li><p><b>没钱砍研发。</b>2019年下半年,蔚来融资不利,现金流紧张开始。蔚来的研发费用从那时开始同比大幅下降,2019Q3,同比+0%;2019Q4,同比-33%;2020Q1,同比-52%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p><b>有钱砍研发。</b>2020年4月得到安徽70亿元投资,以及六家银行百亿授信,2020Q2,同比-58%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p><b>有钱没钱砍研发。</b>8月11日的电话会里,蔚来管理层对研发投入的描述是这样的,“保证每年研发投入在30亿元以内,我们会围绕下一代自动驾驶技术进行研发,大约5-6亿元/季度的投入,每个季度的投入将根据车型开发进度进行调整。”预算大致固定了。</p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf869884d2cb671b913e63058da55b8c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"598\"></p><p>▲图1:蔚来研发费用。来源:公司财报,锦缎。</p><p><b>预感有人会拿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>出来说事,这里提前堵住反对票的嘴。</b></p><p>现在的特斯拉,从单季度营收来看,当前的蔚来(Q2收入37.2亿元)大致和2013年Q1的特斯拉相当,后者2013年Q1收入5.6亿元(按当时6.28的汇率,折合人民币35.3亿元)。</p><p>特斯拉在蔚来这个收入量级(单个季度三四十亿元)的2013年,四个季度研发费用分别同比下降:-19%,-31%,-10%,-1%。老大哥特斯拉研发费用都可以下降为什么蔚来不可以?</p><p>蔚来当然不可以,橘生淮南淮北可甜可苦,我们具体问题具体分析:</p><p>当时特斯拉环比收入陷入停滞,四个季度营收分别是5.6亿美元、4.1亿美元、4.3亿美元和6.15亿美元,经营的不确定很大。这个时期,研发费用下降无可厚非,下降也没蔚来往腰斩去这么恐怖。而蔚来呢,交付量节节攀升:</p><ul><li><p>2019年Q4交付量为8224辆,平均89.4辆/天;</p></li><li><p>中间2020年Q1新冠病毒挖了个小坑但并不影响向上的趋势;</p></li><li><p>2020年Q2交付量为10331辆,平均113.5辆/天;</p></li><li><p>2020年Q3可能也会不错,因为除了ES6和ES8,EC6九月份也要开始交付了。</p></li></ul><p>交付量上去了,营收上去了,研发费用却大幅降低,情况就是这么个情况,这是与特斯拉营收大致相同阶段的不同之处。<b>这是对资本市场盈利压力之下的一种妥协,一种投降。</b></p><p>投降于资本市场的蔚来,对于用户来说,未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。</p><p><i><b>02、</b></i><b>实惠减少</b></p><p>二季度,蔚来迎来里程碑时刻:毛利率转正且可持续(预计Q3和Q4能维持正毛利)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1608af6bd25c3ef5316a9447a3330da7\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"471\"></p><p>▲图2:蔚来毛利率变化图。来源:公司财报,锦缎。</p><p>这对股东来说是好事,这对用户来说就不一定了。蔚来解释它提高毛利率的武器有两个:</p><p><b>第一, 规模效应。</b></p><p>这个大家都懂,规模大了,工人更熟练,学习曲线上去了,浪费减少,毛利率自然提高。</p><p>但是,咱回头来看看,规模确实提高了,今年Q2比去年Q4交付量多了2107辆,这会对生产效率产生极大改善吗?改善足矣大到里外里17.3%的差距吗(去年Q4毛利率为-8.9%)?如果是这样,月交付量到了5000辆毛利率得有多高?</p><p>所以我们认为,这次毛利率转正过程中,规模效应不是主要的原因。</p><p><b>第二,节省BOM。</b></p><p>BOM即Bill of Material,物料。蔚来管理层在电话会上说,“Q3和Q4我们会维持毛利率,我们预测我们仍然有一些进步的空间,例如通过节省BOM等方式,10%是可以实现的,但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现。我们可以看到毛利率有提升空间,从各方面来说都有改善机会,但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事。”</p><p>过去,蔚来的ES8/ES6造的很卖力,为了用户不惜用料,你很难听到有车评人士说“蔚来有座椅特别硬这样的硬伤”——这是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>(NASDAQ:LI)被喷的很多的问题,也是外界认为理想在很低的销量之下毛利率为正的原因。</p><p>而现在,蔚来节省BOM换取毛利率。虽然管理层也知道节制,表示,“但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现……但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事……”但终究,实惠减少了。</p><p><i><b>03、</b></i><b>魔幻蔚来</b></p><p>研发费用变少,实惠可能也会逐步变少,那蔚来要拿什么来俘获用户的芳心,又要向还没入场的资本市场投资者讲出什么样的故事呢?</p><p>答案是:AI的故事,无人驾驶的故事。</p><p>2020年8月14日,媒体消息:任少卿加盟蔚来,担任“助理副总裁”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144993b8bdf14aed2338ac07690fb403\" tg-width=\"365\" tg-height=\"645\"></p><p>▲图3:任少卿简历。</p><p>引用任少卿的学术圈地位的描述:</p><blockquote>“他是AI图像识别检测圈无人不晓的大神啊!Resnet 和 faster rcnn 是当下深度学习发展阶段的重要里程碑。Resnet不同于以往的网络,它试图拟合残差,训练速度快。目前也是各种深度学习应用的backbone;而 faster rcnn 是两阶段目标检测的sota技术,无敌的存在。而任少卿,基本是这俩深度学习算法相关顶级论文的参与作者。Faster rcnn,他是一作!”</blockquote><p>科技新能源车最酷炫的卖点,这简直是男人的Viagra。</p><p>蔚来有mobileye的芯片支撑算力,任少卿加盟支撑算法,再加上不断交付的车辆增强数据。活脱脱的“AI造车新势力”,L4自动驾驶的目标还会远吗?</p><p>在自动驾驶方面能走多远不知道,但这一点需要我们足够的警惕。因为“下周回国”的那个男人,早已砍掉了我们对科技的溢价。你看,Faraday Future偏向无人驾驶,高科技感十足的专利聚类包括:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8daed259f14788161671f442b507a74b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\"></p><p>▲图4:Faraday Future专利分类。来源:incopat</p><p>模式识别302件;导航数据203件;位置测量误差202件;集成驱动185件;门铰链173件。最终,Faraday Future尘归尘,土归土。<b>多年以后不确定能不能实现的梦想,不应该给予折现。</b></p><p>理智的看,自动驾驶商用化很难,技术上无法实现,法规上还未配套,可能5-10年以后情况会改观,但不是现在。</p><p><b>但这又有什么关系呢,反正能讲的故事变多了:故事——交付量——收入——估值——故事。</b></p><p>一种循环,永不落幕。</p>","source":"lsy1596593134739","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>李斌向资本低头,蔚来能涨40倍?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李斌向资本低头,蔚来能涨40倍?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-18 10:14 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA><strong>锦缎</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头,在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间,它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯(Jeff Bezos),天不生杰夫·贝索斯,长期主义万古如长夜:1997年IPO时投资亚马逊,23年来2000倍回报,年化收益率39%。长期的选择带来长期的收益,企业状况会越来越好;短期的选择带来短期的收益,企业状况刚开始还可以,以后可能每况愈下。蔚来走在后面这条路上,它向...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3380231cb191ca9bea37a0c70765537d","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199767469","content_text":"优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头,在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间,它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯(Jeff Bezos),天不生杰夫·贝索斯,长期主义万古如长夜:1997年IPO时投资亚马逊,23年来2000倍回报,年化收益率39%。长期的选择带来长期的收益,企业状况会越来越好;短期的选择带来短期的收益,企业状况刚开始还可以,以后可能每况愈下。蔚来走在后面这条路上,它向资本市场低头了。如果一家企业向资本市场投降,向股东投降,最显著的观察点是减少了策略性成本。所谓策略性可变成本,即直接涉及并提高长期业绩表现的成本,最典型的莫过于研发投入。前两天看到有个魔怔投资者说,蔚来要涨40倍。呵呵,从来没听说处于追赶段位的公司,研发投入不跟上,股价还能涨40倍的。话说回来,之所以短期利益变得更加重要,也许是因为李斌真的穷怕了。困难重重之下终于拿到融资,但这并不简单,也不是毫无条件的。安徽这70亿元的战略投资有严苛的对赌协议,如果完不成,蔚来得以8.5%的年复合增长率回购其股份。01、“投降”趋势蔚来在研发投入上的态度,从数字上来看一览无余。总结下来是:没钱砍研发。2019年下半年,蔚来融资不利,现金流紧张开始。蔚来的研发费用从那时开始同比大幅下降,2019Q3,同比+0%;2019Q4,同比-33%;2020Q1,同比-52%。有钱砍研发。2020年4月得到安徽70亿元投资,以及六家银行百亿授信,2020Q2,同比-58%。有钱没钱砍研发。8月11日的电话会里,蔚来管理层对研发投入的描述是这样的,“保证每年研发投入在30亿元以内,我们会围绕下一代自动驾驶技术进行研发,大约5-6亿元/季度的投入,每个季度的投入将根据车型开发进度进行调整。”预算大致固定了。▲图1:蔚来研发费用。来源:公司财报,锦缎。预感有人会拿特斯拉出来说事,这里提前堵住反对票的嘴。现在的特斯拉,从单季度营收来看,当前的蔚来(Q2收入37.2亿元)大致和2013年Q1的特斯拉相当,后者2013年Q1收入5.6亿元(按当时6.28的汇率,折合人民币35.3亿元)。特斯拉在蔚来这个收入量级(单个季度三四十亿元)的2013年,四个季度研发费用分别同比下降:-19%,-31%,-10%,-1%。老大哥特斯拉研发费用都可以下降为什么蔚来不可以?蔚来当然不可以,橘生淮南淮北可甜可苦,我们具体问题具体分析:当时特斯拉环比收入陷入停滞,四个季度营收分别是5.6亿美元、4.1亿美元、4.3亿美元和6.15亿美元,经营的不确定很大。这个时期,研发费用下降无可厚非,下降也没蔚来往腰斩去这么恐怖。而蔚来呢,交付量节节攀升:2019年Q4交付量为8224辆,平均89.4辆/天;中间2020年Q1新冠病毒挖了个小坑但并不影响向上的趋势;2020年Q2交付量为10331辆,平均113.5辆/天;2020年Q3可能也会不错,因为除了ES6和ES8,EC6九月份也要开始交付了。交付量上去了,营收上去了,研发费用却大幅降低,情况就是这么个情况,这是与特斯拉营收大致相同阶段的不同之处。这是对资本市场盈利压力之下的一种妥协,一种投降。投降于资本市场的蔚来,对于用户来说,未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。02、实惠减少二季度,蔚来迎来里程碑时刻:毛利率转正且可持续(预计Q3和Q4能维持正毛利)。▲图2:蔚来毛利率变化图。来源:公司财报,锦缎。这对股东来说是好事,这对用户来说就不一定了。蔚来解释它提高毛利率的武器有两个:第一, 规模效应。这个大家都懂,规模大了,工人更熟练,学习曲线上去了,浪费减少,毛利率自然提高。但是,咱回头来看看,规模确实提高了,今年Q2比去年Q4交付量多了2107辆,这会对生产效率产生极大改善吗?改善足矣大到里外里17.3%的差距吗(去年Q4毛利率为-8.9%)?如果是这样,月交付量到了5000辆毛利率得有多高?所以我们认为,这次毛利率转正过程中,规模效应不是主要的原因。第二,节省BOM。BOM即Bill of Material,物料。蔚来管理层在电话会上说,“Q3和Q4我们会维持毛利率,我们预测我们仍然有一些进步的空间,例如通过节省BOM等方式,10%是可以实现的,但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现。我们可以看到毛利率有提升空间,从各方面来说都有改善机会,但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事。”过去,蔚来的ES8/ES6造的很卖力,为了用户不惜用料,你很难听到有车评人士说“蔚来有座椅特别硬这样的硬伤”——这是理想汽车(NASDAQ:LI)被喷的很多的问题,也是外界认为理想在很低的销量之下毛利率为正的原因。而现在,蔚来节省BOM换取毛利率。虽然管理层也知道节制,表示,“但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现……但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事……”但终究,实惠减少了。03、魔幻蔚来研发费用变少,实惠可能也会逐步变少,那蔚来要拿什么来俘获用户的芳心,又要向还没入场的资本市场投资者讲出什么样的故事呢?答案是:AI的故事,无人驾驶的故事。2020年8月14日,媒体消息:任少卿加盟蔚来,担任“助理副总裁”。▲图3:任少卿简历。引用任少卿的学术圈地位的描述:“他是AI图像识别检测圈无人不晓的大神啊!Resnet 和 faster rcnn 是当下深度学习发展阶段的重要里程碑。Resnet不同于以往的网络,它试图拟合残差,训练速度快。目前也是各种深度学习应用的backbone;而 faster rcnn 是两阶段目标检测的sota技术,无敌的存在。而任少卿,基本是这俩深度学习算法相关顶级论文的参与作者。Faster rcnn,他是一作!”科技新能源车最酷炫的卖点,这简直是男人的Viagra。蔚来有mobileye的芯片支撑算力,任少卿加盟支撑算法,再加上不断交付的车辆增强数据。活脱脱的“AI造车新势力”,L4自动驾驶的目标还会远吗?在自动驾驶方面能走多远不知道,但这一点需要我们足够的警惕。因为“下周回国”的那个男人,早已砍掉了我们对科技的溢价。你看,Faraday Future偏向无人驾驶,高科技感十足的专利聚类包括:▲图4:Faraday Future专利分类。来源:incopat模式识别302件;导航数据203件;位置测量误差202件;集成驱动185件;门铰链173件。最终,Faraday Future尘归尘,土归土。多年以后不确定能不能实现的梦想,不应该给予折现。理智的看,自动驾驶商用化很难,技术上无法实现,法规上还未配套,可能5-10年以后情况会改观,但不是现在。但这又有什么关系呢,反正能讲的故事变多了:故事——交付量——收入——估值——故事。一种循环,永不落幕。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976385874,"gmtCreate":1599595539498,"gmtModify":1703819002017,"author":{"id":"3547141148656184","authorId":"3547141148656184","name":"路析理","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ebb3dce631208cf694dd5ab7c2651","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547141148656184","idStr":"3547141148656184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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