鹿引的个人主页 - 老虎社区

鹿引

命里有时终须有，命里无时莫强求

IP属地：北京

20关注

59粉丝

0主题

0勋章

01-20

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 清仓留念。

2023-12-27

2023年完结，撒花。

2021-03-29

$腾讯音乐(TME)$清仓留念

2021-03-26

$老虎证券(TIGR)$老虎的财报一次比一次牛逼，就是没见财报当天涨过。

2021-03-18

$Square, Inc(SQ)$好久没发帖了。嗝～

2021-01-22

$老虎证券(TIGR)$感谢老虎[笑哭]

2020-10-15

$蔚来(NIO)$终于等到了5000，清掉最后一手，留念。给虎友们分享喜气。[害羞]

2020-09-30

$蔚来(NIO)$留一手看看能不能奔5000%[捂脸]

2020-07-24

别分析了，分析到最后还是全仓茅台[笑哭]

中美博弈升级，下半年买股票还是房子？

2020-06-22

$蔚来(NIO)$孩子小时候丑点不要紧，万一以后长大漂亮了呢[笑哭]

2020-06-10

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$见证万点

2020-06-08

$西方石油(OXY)$有点突然。[可怜]

2020-05-28

还是感觉自家的韭菜味道正[打脸]

拥抱国资+回国上市，李斌能给蔚来一个新的未来吗

2020-01-15

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$凶残。

2020-01-15

$道琼斯(.DJI)$$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$盯了好几个月终于有杯子了。[得意]

2019-12-30

$蔚来(NIO)$[流泪]要复活了吗

2019-12-16

$蔚来(NIO)$感谢李总，我撤了。[真香]

2019-12-16

$小米集团-W(01810)$感谢雷总，我撤了[捂脸]

2019-07-19

$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$买了四个月了。从开始的跌30个点到现在的65个点。越来越看不懂了[哟哟]

2019-04-05

$二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$ 平仓留念

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Inc(SQ)$好久没发帖了。嗝～","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7d063ae12da0435b2cb658b0270557e","width":"1284","height":"1403"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327063972","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310632445,"gmtCreate":1611320459087,"gmtModify":1703749684701,"author":{"id":"3484638089488131","authorId":"3484638089488131","name":"鹿引","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db46d53e92be3690416b1cf5e712f90c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484638089488131","authorIdStr":"3484638089488131"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>感谢老虎[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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已经财务自由"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946375873,"gmtCreate":1595602779492,"gmtModify":1704209653374,"author":{"id":"3484638089488131","authorId":"3484638089488131","name":"鹿引","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db46d53e92be3690416b1cf5e712f90c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484638089488131","authorIdStr":"3484638089488131"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"别分析了，分析到最后还是全仓茅台[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"别分析了，分析到最后还是全仓茅台[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"别分析了，分析到最后还是全仓茅台[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946375873","repostId":"1141702285","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141702285","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1595596578,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141702285?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-24 21:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中美博弈升级，下半年买股票还是房子？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141702285","media":"巴伦周刊","summary":"李迅雷认为，疫情过后房地产市场不会有太大起色，投资回报率实际上也在下降。长期应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。7月24日（周五），A股遭遇大幅调整，上证指数失守3200点，下跌近130点。","content":"<p>李迅雷认为，疫情过后房地产市场不会有太大起色，投资回报率实际上也在下降。长期应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。</p><p>7月24日（周五），A股遭遇大幅调整，上证指数失守3200点，下跌近130点。前期一路强势的创业板指跌势更甚，创下最近5个多月最大单日跌幅。</p><p>中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷认为，近日中美紧张局势升级只是市场的一个触发因素，更主要是的市场供需变化带来的正常调整，中美关系只是扰动市场的短期因素。</p><p>对于A股自3月低点以来总体回升、持续走高的态势，李迅雷认为经济和企业盈利基本面并不支持所谓的「全面牛市」。他指出，中国股市指数上涨，是由于原有估值体系正在经历修正，指数中权重较大的股票估值在走高。</p><p>同时，随着中国经济结构性转型，股市正在及时地反映消费升级、新旧产业更替等趋势。「从2017年到现在为止，其实就是一个结构性的牛市。」他对《巴伦周刊》中文版说。</p><p>另一方面，最受国内投资者关注的房地产市场迅速摆脱新冠疫情影响，复苏势头明显。下半年，投资者该如何在股市和房地产之间权衡？</p><p>李迅雷认为，房地产销售自6月以来有所走弱，预示着疫情后房地产市场不会有太大起色。由于房价经历了长期上涨，房地产的投资回报率实际上也在下降。「长期而言，中国居民资产配置中房地产的占比过大，应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。」</p><p>在李迅雷看来，我们目前面临着「货币多、好资产少」的格局。在各大类资产中，他最看好权益资产，并认为投资者应该借助专业基金经理的专业技能去发现「好的稀缺资产」。</p><p>李迅雷此前曾先后在国泰君安证券、海通证券长期负责研究工作。近些年来，他对于中国经济转型、房地产市场趋势等话题的研究引发了广泛的社会反响。</p><p>以下是经过编辑的采访实录：01 中美关系只是短期扰动</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:中美紧张关系近两日来有所升温，而A股在23日、24日连续两个交易日收低，且北向资金也连续出现净流出。您如何看待当前市场出现的调整？中美关系波动是否会对A股造成持续冲击？</p><p>李迅雷：我认为中美局势是一个触发因素，但不是主要影响因素。主要因素在于，近一段时间以来产业资本减持、新股发行以及北上资金流出等，带来了一定的变化。今年以来一些股票涨幅比较大，而随着新股发行规模加大，尤其是7月比较集中，市场短期内的供需关系有了变化，也会造成一些心理影响。市场在这一过程中做出调整是正常现象，毕竟短期内冲高的幅度有些大。</p><p>中美关系波动接下来不会对A股造成较大的冲击，因为大部分的变化已经在预期之内。另一方面，中美紧张关系进一步升级的可能性也并不大，两国高级代表还计划于8月会面，将会评估第一阶段贸易协议的落实，并讨论下一步如何做。所以，中美关系会带来一些扰动因素，但市场的调整更多的是市场自身的原因。</p><p>以上这些都是短期因素，真正的原因还是在于估值的调整。A股市场估值目前处在一个相对均衡的水平，如果经济基本面下半年能够继续好转的话，那么市场还是应该会有上升的动力。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版：上证综指从3月低点大幅回升，进入7月后涨幅尤其明显。您如何看待当前A股大涨的推动因素？为什么进入7月后涨幅会明显扩大？</p><p>李迅雷：对于股市涨跌，我们事后找原因的话会发现有好多原因。但问题在于，事前预测7月会出现大幅上涨是很难通过逻辑推理来实现的。</p><p>不过，股市上涨的逻辑肯定是存在的。美国股市近来为什么涨那么多？在美国疫情如此严峻的情况下、在美国经济大幅度的负增长情况下，美国股市为什么表现这么好？美股从技术性熊市变成技术性牛市，而且纳斯达克指数还创了历史新高？这显然还是跟美联储的「无限量量化宽松」的货币政策有关，与美国财政部大量举债来救助企业和个人也是相关的。我觉得这是一个主要由资金推动的市场行情。</p><p>美国作为一个成熟市场，况且有这么反常的表现，中国作为新兴市场出现股市上涨就并不意外。无论是资金面、技术面和基本面，中国股市都具备一定的支撑因素。</p><p>资金面来讲，上半年中国的广义货币供应量（M2）增速还是比较高的，与名义GDP增速之间的缺口达到了历史较高水平。虽然我们不像美国这样大规模的放水，但是我们实际上也采取了比较宽松的货币政策，降准、降息也比较频繁。</p><p>就基本面而言，在全球经济都受到疫情严重影响的情况下，中国的疫情基本上得到控制，所以经济复苏的迹象是非常明显。这对于上市公司的基本面改善也提供了一定的支撑。</p><p>另外，中国居民在收入出现负增长的情况下，消费的降幅更大，导致储蓄有所增加。老百姓少消费、多投资，对股市也是有利的。</p><p>02 经济转型催生结构性牛市</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版：基于A股目前的上涨行情，有不少人认为A股正在经历一轮长期牛市或全面牛市，您怎么看待这种观点？</p><p>李迅雷：我觉得A股目前出现长期牛市的观点不大能成立。我们整个经济还处在转型期，中国股市跟美国股市不一样，我们属于新兴市场。这几年我们上市公司的亏损面是在扩大的，盈利增速有所下降。</p><p>目前所谓的牛市，我认为更多是对现有估值体系的一种修正——是修正而不是修复。这种估值体系修正产生了结构性的牛市。</p><p>以往，A股估值体系当中绩差股、小市值股票估值较高，大市值股票的估值比较低，即「对不确定性溢价」，「对确定性折价」。现在反过来了，小市股票估值水平在往下走，大市值股票的估值水平在往上走。由于大市值股票更能够带动指数，所以这个指数是在往上走。另一方面，股价下跌的股票的数量是在增加的，因为中小市值股票在市场当中占比较大。</p><p>这样的话，从2017年到现在为止，其实就是一个结构性的牛市。原先的估值体系是不合理的，给予小市值的、净资产收益率(ROE)比较低的公司比较高的估值，而ROE比较高、大市值的公司估值较低。</p><p>结构性牛市另一种表现是，医药生物、电子、通讯、计算机等高科技行业代表新经济动能的股票，估值水平是在往上走的。另外，代表居民消费升级的食品饮料板块，总体估值水平也是在往上走。与此同时，传统经济板块的估值水平基本上没有太大变化，现在还是处在相对较低的估值水平。</p><p>所以，这两种结构性的变化给A股带来了一种牛市的感觉。这些变化跟中国经济结构调整、转型升级是相关的。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版：从基本面投资的角度来看，这些行业和板块的长期投资价值也更大？</p><p>李迅雷：是的。传统经济领域中，一些与消费升级明显相关的行业，估值得到了提升。最典型的比如白酒行业，估值水平从过去的十几倍市盈率已经上升到现在的二三十倍市盈率。尽管它属于传统行业，但它属于消费类的行业、不是传统的周期类行业。中国经济已经从投资主导转化为消费主导，所以消费板块连续两年的涨幅都处于领先水平。</p><p>对于一些新兴行业(包括医药生物、计算机、互联网、新能源新材料等)，它们的估值水平虽然不便宜，但大家更看重未来的发展前景，这也是符合逻辑、有理性成分的。这种逻辑跟过去炒小盘、炒绩差股、炒地域概念的逻辑还是有差别。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版：A股今年的这一轮涨势在多大程度上反映了中国经济的改善？</p><p>李迅雷：我觉得对中国经济转型将是一个非常漫长的过程，没有十年、二十年年很难完成。所以，我们不要把股市上涨跟我们的经济增速变化过多联系在一起，我觉得股市的变化更多地是在反映中国经济结构的变化，而通过数学模型分析，A股指数的表现好坏跟我们经济的好坏，没有很明显的相关性。</p><p>大家常说「中国股市是中国经济的晴雨表」，我觉得「晴雨表」更多是在反映经济结构，而不是反映经济的走势。</p><p>现在股市里面涨得好的股票往往都是跟中国经济转型相关的，而不是跟中国经济周期相关。A股与中国经济的周期性变化关联度不大。实际上，这些年中国经济的周期特征越来越弱了，因为逆周期经济政策强度比较大、调控频率越来越高。</p><p>但是，中国经济的结构性变化还是能够比较及时地在股市上反映出来。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版：到7月22日，科创板开板整整一年，这一年的表现是否符合您的预期？接下来科创板的投资价值如何？</p><p>李迅雷：科创板在初始阶段估计是「优中选优」，第一批、第二批上市的公司可能是科创企业中的佼佼者，因此它们带来的投资回报是非常惊人的。</p><p>今后，随着科创板的扩容，可能上市条件会相对有所放松。注册制这种政策上的创新，一开始必定会受到各方面的高度重视，会有非常严格的把关。随着数量的增加，可能上市的门槛会降低，优秀公司的占比也会下降。这样的话，它的整体投资回报率可能不会像第一年那么高。</p><p>03 A股估值体系还有非理性成分</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版：你如何看待当前阶段A股与美股的相关性？有观点认为，考虑到中国经济在全球经济当中的重要性， A股上涨对于美国、欧洲等股市可能是一个利好信号，您怎么看？</p><p>李迅雷：我觉得相关性还是比较大的。比如说，美国的纳斯达克指数创历史新高，A股里面的创业板也创了近年新高。再比如说，今年上半年医药板块在纳斯达克表现比较强劲，基金经理都普遍提高配置比例，在A股市场同样也是被国内的机构投资者所看好。这反映出全球资本市场的联动性越来越大了。</p><p>这个也跟中国资本市场的开放度的提升有关。今年以来，境外机构在国内注册投资公司、证券公司的条件大大放宽了，境外资金参与A股市场的比重也显著提高。这也意味着 A股跟美股市场的联动性的提高。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版：在疫情发生之前，美国股市经历了将近十一年的长期「慢牛」。现在，越来越多的国际投资者对中国市场持乐观态度。在您看来，中国市场能否也实现一段超长期的「慢牛」？</p><p>李迅雷：如果说我们这个市场发展顺利的话，我觉得也是有可能的。但是，我们一定要看清股市中的「二八分化」现象。比如，过去11年的美国纳斯达克市场中，累计涨幅前10%股票的市值占到其总市值的将近一半。这10%的股票上涨约20倍，而大部分股票都几乎没涨，甚至下跌。</p><p>中国毕竟还是一个新兴市场，我们一定要看到差距所在。如A股跟H股的价差是非常大的，基本上都有30%到50%左右。这也就是说，A股的股价水平普遍要要比H股高出30%到50%，说明A股的估值体系其实还是存在一些非理性的成分。</p><p>假设H股的估值相对合理的话，那么A股是不是存在估值偏高的问题？或者没有整体偏高，是不是存在局部偏高的问题？如果作为局部估值偏高的市场，随着境外投资者参与度的提高，估值的进一步修正是不是还会延续？</p><p>我觉得还是要看得更加长远一点，不能做简单的类比。美国股市已经有220多年的历程，而中国股市只有30年的历程，我们跟人家的差距还非常大。</p><p>04 房地产销量难创新高，人口集中看三条线</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版：截至6月底，中国房地产开发投资、商品房销售面积和销售额等多个指标降幅连续5个月收窄。其中，房地产开发投资增速年内还首次转正。在经历疫情冲击的背景下，国内房地产市场为何能够快速复苏？</p><p>李迅雷：国内疫情主要的爆发期是2月和3月。4月以后疫情已经大大缓解，这与境外形成鲜明反差。二季度国内疫情基本上得到控制，所以对房地产的销售和投资都没有形成太大影响，主要影响还是在一季度。</p><p>到了二季度，房地产销售出现报复性的反弹。房地产跟普通消费不一样，它主要是刚需和投资性需求。与旅游餐饮等服务消费不同，后者「过期作废」，而疫情对于房地产的销售不会带来太大影响，对房地产开发投资的影响也不大。一季度本身就是投资淡季，一般等到二季度投资增速会回升，这是可以理解的。</p><p>但是，我发现6月的销售数据已经有点走弱了，强劲的反弹势头主要还是在5月。所以，我不认为房地产会有很大的起色。</p><p>中国房地产毕竟已经经历了20年的牛市，这在历史上是非常罕见的。尤其在2018-2019年，整个固定资产投资增速回落到5%左右，但房地产投资增速依然很高，可以说一枝独秀。这个是一个非常奇特的现象。</p><p>延续到今年的话，我想不管有没有疫情，今年的新房销量不会再创新高了。我预计，今后几年房地产销量也都很难再创新高。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版：截至6月，5年期贷款市场报价利率(LPR)从2019年8月的4.85%降至4.65%。与此同时，货币供应量、社会融资总量增速等指标上半年也处在较高水平。低利率和宽裕的流动性是否会支撑房价继续走高？</p><p>李迅雷：这个肯定是有一定支撑的，并且我认为利率下行趋势还没到位。最近这段时间，利率债的下跌，是因为大家都在预期宽信用，而降息的可能性似乎不大。但我觉得，下半年经济依然有下行压力，预计还是会继续降息。</p><p>如果降息的话，对于资本市场、房地产市场都是一个利好因素。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版：您常常从人口流动视角分析不同城市的房地产市场。目前来看，还有哪些城市的人口趋势是有利于当地房地产市场的？</p><p>李迅雷：我先不讲房价会怎样，因为谁也说不准如今的房价水平是不是已经反映了未来的预期变化。就像股价上涨了，你说当前的股价是不是已经反映了大家对公司盈利增长的预期？我不知道。</p><p>但是，至少从2019年人口数据来看的话，人口净流入最多的省份是浙江省，其中90%的人口增量流到了杭州和宁波。而今年杭州和宁波的房价涨幅也名列全国前茅。说明房价与人口流向存在明显相关性。</p><p>我觉得整个中国人口未来会集中到三条线上。第一条线就是粤港澳大湾区，包括深圳、广州、佛山，以及珠海、东莞和惠州。第二条线是杭州湾湾区。除了杭州、宁波之外，还包括像嘉兴、绍兴。第三条线是长江经济带，东部包含了上海、南京、无锡、苏州、南通。这几个城市的人口也是净流入的。再往中游的话，主要是长沙和武汉，往西部的话主要就是重庆、成都。</p><p>未来这三条线上的城市人口还是会不断增加的，中国的大城市化进程方兴未艾，人口集中度会越来越高。</p><p>05 房地产投资回报率下降，配置金融资产是长期逻辑</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版：有机构认为，居民财富正在从房地产和银行体系中走出来，朝着股市转移或者「搬家」，并且认为这会是一种长期趋势。您怎么看？您也观察到了这样的趋势吗？</p><p>李迅雷：判断这种趋势，我们要用数据来说话。从数据来看，我们没有发现就大量的资金从房地产流出，因为房价现在还比较稳定。没有确切数据可以证明资金在从楼市流到股市。至于储蓄「搬家」，居民存款也没有特别明显的减少。</p><p>但有一点，目前居民收入是略有下降，而消费是大幅下降。这表明资金从消费领域转移到投资领域。我们看到，公募基金的发行规模出现比较明显的扩大，这说明股市增量资金有相当一部分是来自于居民对公募基金的申购。</p><p>另外，今年3月以来外资出现净流入，这也是股市增量资金的一个来源。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版：那么如果现在有投资者在投资房产和投资股票之间面临两难选择，您能给出一些建议吗？</p><p>李迅雷：房子价格越来越高，随着分母变大，它的投资回报率其实是在下降的。比如说，10多年前，你以每平方米5000元的价格买一套房子，可能现在涨到每平方米五万元，十倍的投资回报率；但你现在以每平米五万元买房，未来要涨到每平米十万元，即实现一倍的回报率会更有难度。而且，不是每个城市都有这样的增长潜力。另一方面，比房地产更好的那些投资工具如今也更加丰富了。</p><p>我觉得我们应该更多地去配置金融资产，这是一个长期逻辑。中国居民资产配置中，房地产的配置比重过大，大概在70%左右。美国大概30%左右。从未来大格局来讲，应该降低房地产的配置比例，增加金融资产的配置比例。金融资产里面又分为股票、债券、公募基金等产品，准金融资产里边还包括黄金等等。</p><p>我们现在其实面临着「货币多、好资产少」这样一个格局，我们应该配置的是好资产、稀缺资产。</p><p>随之而来的一个问题是：稀缺资产的估值是不是太高了？我的建议还是要找专业的人士，把钱委托给优秀的基金经理来配置，他们可以判断目前所谓好资产的估值到底是贵还是便宜。</p><p>就股票投资而言，买股票就是买未来，我们是基于未来预期来判断目前股价到底是贵还是便宜。如果说它的盈利未来能够保持每年30%到50%的增长，那么这样的股票现在很多是非常便宜的。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版：从今年下半年到明年上半年，各大类资产当中您比较看好的是哪些？</p><p>李迅雷：第一个，我还是比较看好权益资产。主要是我前面讲的好公司、好的行业。这个话讲起来容易，实际操作过程中，可能大部分投资者都不具备寻找好公司、好的稀缺资产的能力。我的建议还是买那些优秀基金经理所管理的基金，这是这么多年来最重要的经验。</p><p>第二类，我看好黄金。我认为未来存在资产泡沫破灭的风险，还可能出现全球经济下行、金融动荡、甚至战争等的风险。此外，货币超发是这次疫情下的货币当局普遍做法。事实上，从1929年至今，美元纸币增长了330倍，而美国经济实际只增长了16倍，黄金存量只增长了6.7倍。从1971年开始算，美元纸币增长了21倍，美国经济实际增长2.7倍，黄金存量只增长了1.1倍。从这个角度来讲的话，黄金既是避险工具，又是投资品。</p><p>对于风险厌恶型的投资者，可以关注一些固定收益类的低风险产品，比如利率债、一些货币型产品、保本理财产品等等。</p><p>至于房地产，对于那些人口持续净流入的发达大城市，我觉得还是可以持有，如日本东京在经历了房地产泡沫破灭之后，还会创新高。不过，从大类资产的角度来看，我认为房地产不是一个很好的配置工具。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版：谢谢您的分享。</p>","source":"lsy1587985706210","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中美博弈升级，下半年买股票还是房子？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-07-24 21:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CbHVbvhCwpUeCszUZK6caw><strong>巴伦周刊</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>李迅雷认为，疫情过后房地产市场不会有太大起色，投资回报率实际上也在下降。长期应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。7月24日（周五），A股遭遇大幅调整，上证指数失守3200点，下跌近130点。前期一路强势的创业板指跌势更甚，创下最近5个多月最大单日跌幅。中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷认为，近日中美紧张局势升级只是市场的一个触发因素，更主要是的市场供需变化带来的正常调整，中美关系只是扰动市场的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CbHVbvhCwpUeCszUZK6caw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aa2149ef8a80f77e2806ac3e2644925","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CbHVbvhCwpUeCszUZK6caw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141702285","content_text":"李迅雷认为，疫情过后房地产市场不会有太大起色，投资回报率实际上也在下降。长期应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。7月24日（周五），A股遭遇大幅调整，上证指数失守3200点，下跌近130点。前期一路强势的创业板指跌势更甚，创下最近5个多月最大单日跌幅。中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷认为，近日中美紧张局势升级只是市场的一个触发因素，更主要是的市场供需变化带来的正常调整，中美关系只是扰动市场的短期因素。对于A股自3月低点以来总体回升、持续走高的态势，李迅雷认为经济和企业盈利基本面并不支持所谓的「全面牛市」。他指出，中国股市指数上涨，是由于原有估值体系正在经历修正，指数中权重较大的股票估值在走高。同时，随着中国经济结构性转型，股市正在及时地反映消费升级、新旧产业更替等趋势。「从2017年到现在为止，其实就是一个结构性的牛市。」他对《巴伦周刊》中文版说。另一方面，最受国内投资者关注的房地产市场迅速摆脱新冠疫情影响，复苏势头明显。下半年，投资者该如何在股市和房地产之间权衡？李迅雷认为，房地产销售自6月以来有所走弱，预示着疫情后房地产市场不会有太大起色。由于房价经历了长期上涨，房地产的投资回报率实际上也在下降。「长期而言，中国居民资产配置中房地产的占比过大，应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。」在李迅雷看来，我们目前面临着「货币多、好资产少」的格局。在各大类资产中，他最看好权益资产，并认为投资者应该借助专业基金经理的专业技能去发现「好的稀缺资产」。李迅雷此前曾先后在国泰君安证券、海通证券长期负责研究工作。近些年来，他对于中国经济转型、房地产市场趋势等话题的研究引发了广泛的社会反响。以下是经过编辑的采访实录：01 中美关系只是短期扰动《巴伦周刊》中文版:中美紧张关系近两日来有所升温，而A股在23日、24日连续两个交易日收低，且北向资金也连续出现净流出。您如何看待当前市场出现的调整？中美关系波动是否会对A股造成持续冲击？李迅雷：我认为中美局势是一个触发因素，但不是主要影响因素。主要因素在于，近一段时间以来产业资本减持、新股发行以及北上资金流出等，带来了一定的变化。今年以来一些股票涨幅比较大，而随着新股发行规模加大，尤其是7月比较集中，市场短期内的供需关系有了变化，也会造成一些心理影响。市场在这一过程中做出调整是正常现象，毕竟短期内冲高的幅度有些大。中美关系波动接下来不会对A股造成较大的冲击，因为大部分的变化已经在预期之内。另一方面，中美紧张关系进一步升级的可能性也并不大，两国高级代表还计划于8月会面，将会评估第一阶段贸易协议的落实，并讨论下一步如何做。所以，中美关系会带来一些扰动因素，但市场的调整更多的是市场自身的原因。以上这些都是短期因素，真正的原因还是在于估值的调整。A股市场估值目前处在一个相对均衡的水平，如果经济基本面下半年能够继续好转的话，那么市场还是应该会有上升的动力。《巴伦周刊》中文版：上证综指从3月低点大幅回升，进入7月后涨幅尤其明显。您如何看待当前A股大涨的推动因素？为什么进入7月后涨幅会明显扩大？李迅雷：对于股市涨跌，我们事后找原因的话会发现有好多原因。但问题在于，事前预测7月会出现大幅上涨是很难通过逻辑推理来实现的。不过，股市上涨的逻辑肯定是存在的。美国股市近来为什么涨那么多？在美国疫情如此严峻的情况下、在美国经济大幅度的负增长情况下，美国股市为什么表现这么好？美股从技术性熊市变成技术性牛市，而且纳斯达克指数还创了历史新高？这显然还是跟美联储的「无限量量化宽松」的货币政策有关，与美国财政部大量举债来救助企业和个人也是相关的。我觉得这是一个主要由资金推动的市场行情。美国作为一个成熟市场，况且有这么反常的表现，中国作为新兴市场出现股市上涨就并不意外。无论是资金面、技术面和基本面，中国股市都具备一定的支撑因素。资金面来讲，上半年中国的广义货币供应量（M2）增速还是比较高的，与名义GDP增速之间的缺口达到了历史较高水平。虽然我们不像美国这样大规模的放水，但是我们实际上也采取了比较宽松的货币政策，降准、降息也比较频繁。就基本面而言，在全球经济都受到疫情严重影响的情况下，中国的疫情基本上得到控制，所以经济复苏的迹象是非常明显。这对于上市公司的基本面改善也提供了一定的支撑。另外，中国居民在收入出现负增长的情况下，消费的降幅更大，导致储蓄有所增加。老百姓少消费、多投资，对股市也是有利的。02 经济转型催生结构性牛市《巴伦周刊》中文版：基于A股目前的上涨行情，有不少人认为A股正在经历一轮长期牛市或全面牛市，您怎么看待这种观点？李迅雷：我觉得A股目前出现长期牛市的观点不大能成立。我们整个经济还处在转型期，中国股市跟美国股市不一样，我们属于新兴市场。这几年我们上市公司的亏损面是在扩大的，盈利增速有所下降。目前所谓的牛市，我认为更多是对现有估值体系的一种修正——是修正而不是修复。这种估值体系修正产生了结构性的牛市。以往，A股估值体系当中绩差股、小市值股票估值较高，大市值股票的估值比较低，即「对不确定性溢价」，「对确定性折价」。现在反过来了，小市股票估值水平在往下走，大市值股票的估值水平在往上走。由于大市值股票更能够带动指数，所以这个指数是在往上走。另一方面，股价下跌的股票的数量是在增加的，因为中小市值股票在市场当中占比较大。这样的话，从2017年到现在为止，其实就是一个结构性的牛市。原先的估值体系是不合理的，给予小市值的、净资产收益率(ROE)比较低的公司比较高的估值，而ROE比较高、大市值的公司估值较低。结构性牛市另一种表现是，医药生物、电子、通讯、计算机等高科技行业代表新经济动能的股票，估值水平是在往上走的。另外，代表居民消费升级的食品饮料板块，总体估值水平也是在往上走。与此同时，传统经济板块的估值水平基本上没有太大变化，现在还是处在相对较低的估值水平。所以，这两种结构性的变化给A股带来了一种牛市的感觉。这些变化跟中国经济结构调整、转型升级是相关的。《巴伦周刊》中文版：从基本面投资的角度来看，这些行业和板块的长期投资价值也更大？李迅雷：是的。传统经济领域中，一些与消费升级明显相关的行业，估值得到了提升。最典型的比如白酒行业，估值水平从过去的十几倍市盈率已经上升到现在的二三十倍市盈率。尽管它属于传统行业，但它属于消费类的行业、不是传统的周期类行业。中国经济已经从投资主导转化为消费主导，所以消费板块连续两年的涨幅都处于领先水平。对于一些新兴行业(包括医药生物、计算机、互联网、新能源新材料等)，它们的估值水平虽然不便宜，但大家更看重未来的发展前景，这也是符合逻辑、有理性成分的。这种逻辑跟过去炒小盘、炒绩差股、炒地域概念的逻辑还是有差别。《巴伦周刊》中文版：A股今年的这一轮涨势在多大程度上反映了中国经济的改善？李迅雷：我觉得对中国经济转型将是一个非常漫长的过程，没有十年、二十年年很难完成。所以，我们不要把股市上涨跟我们的经济增速变化过多联系在一起，我觉得股市的变化更多地是在反映中国经济结构的变化，而通过数学模型分析，A股指数的表现好坏跟我们经济的好坏，没有很明显的相关性。大家常说「中国股市是中国经济的晴雨表」，我觉得「晴雨表」更多是在反映经济结构，而不是反映经济的走势。现在股市里面涨得好的股票往往都是跟中国经济转型相关的，而不是跟中国经济周期相关。A股与中国经济的周期性变化关联度不大。实际上，这些年中国经济的周期特征越来越弱了，因为逆周期经济政策强度比较大、调控频率越来越高。但是，中国经济的结构性变化还是能够比较及时地在股市上反映出来。《巴伦周刊》中文版：到7月22日，科创板开板整整一年，这一年的表现是否符合您的预期？接下来科创板的投资价值如何？李迅雷：科创板在初始阶段估计是「优中选优」，第一批、第二批上市的公司可能是科创企业中的佼佼者，因此它们带来的投资回报是非常惊人的。今后，随着科创板的扩容，可能上市条件会相对有所放松。注册制这种政策上的创新，一开始必定会受到各方面的高度重视，会有非常严格的把关。随着数量的增加，可能上市的门槛会降低，优秀公司的占比也会下降。这样的话，它的整体投资回报率可能不会像第一年那么高。03 A股估值体系还有非理性成分《巴伦周刊》中文版：你如何看待当前阶段A股与美股的相关性？有观点认为，考虑到中国经济在全球经济当中的重要性， A股上涨对于美国、欧洲等股市可能是一个利好信号，您怎么看？李迅雷：我觉得相关性还是比较大的。比如说，美国的纳斯达克指数创历史新高，A股里面的创业板也创了近年新高。再比如说，今年上半年医药板块在纳斯达克表现比较强劲，基金经理都普遍提高配置比例，在A股市场同样也是被国内的机构投资者所看好。这反映出全球资本市场的联动性越来越大了。这个也跟中国资本市场的开放度的提升有关。今年以来，境外机构在国内注册投资公司、证券公司的条件大大放宽了，境外资金参与A股市场的比重也显著提高。这也意味着 A股跟美股市场的联动性的提高。《巴伦周刊》中文版：在疫情发生之前，美国股市经历了将近十一年的长期「慢牛」。现在，越来越多的国际投资者对中国市场持乐观态度。在您看来，中国市场能否也实现一段超长期的「慢牛」？李迅雷：如果说我们这个市场发展顺利的话，我觉得也是有可能的。但是，我们一定要看清股市中的「二八分化」现象。比如，过去11年的美国纳斯达克市场中，累计涨幅前10%股票的市值占到其总市值的将近一半。这10%的股票上涨约20倍，而大部分股票都几乎没涨，甚至下跌。中国毕竟还是一个新兴市场，我们一定要看到差距所在。如A股跟H股的价差是非常大的，基本上都有30%到50%左右。这也就是说，A股的股价水平普遍要要比H股高出30%到50%，说明A股的估值体系其实还是存在一些非理性的成分。假设H股的估值相对合理的话，那么A股是不是存在估值偏高的问题？或者没有整体偏高，是不是存在局部偏高的问题？如果作为局部估值偏高的市场，随着境外投资者参与度的提高，估值的进一步修正是不是还会延续？我觉得还是要看得更加长远一点，不能做简单的类比。美国股市已经有220多年的历程，而中国股市只有30年的历程，我们跟人家的差距还非常大。04 房地产销量难创新高，人口集中看三条线《巴伦周刊》中文版：截至6月底，中国房地产开发投资、商品房销售面积和销售额等多个指标降幅连续5个月收窄。其中，房地产开发投资增速年内还首次转正。在经历疫情冲击的背景下，国内房地产市场为何能够快速复苏？李迅雷：国内疫情主要的爆发期是2月和3月。4月以后疫情已经大大缓解，这与境外形成鲜明反差。二季度国内疫情基本上得到控制，所以对房地产的销售和投资都没有形成太大影响，主要影响还是在一季度。到了二季度，房地产销售出现报复性的反弹。房地产跟普通消费不一样，它主要是刚需和投资性需求。与旅游餐饮等服务消费不同，后者「过期作废」，而疫情对于房地产的销售不会带来太大影响，对房地产开发投资的影响也不大。一季度本身就是投资淡季，一般等到二季度投资增速会回升，这是可以理解的。但是，我发现6月的销售数据已经有点走弱了，强劲的反弹势头主要还是在5月。所以，我不认为房地产会有很大的起色。中国房地产毕竟已经经历了20年的牛市，这在历史上是非常罕见的。尤其在2018-2019年，整个固定资产投资增速回落到5%左右，但房地产投资增速依然很高，可以说一枝独秀。这个是一个非常奇特的现象。延续到今年的话，我想不管有没有疫情，今年的新房销量不会再创新高了。我预计，今后几年房地产销量也都很难再创新高。《巴伦周刊》中文版：截至6月，5年期贷款市场报价利率(LPR)从2019年8月的4.85%降至4.65%。与此同时，货币供应量、社会融资总量增速等指标上半年也处在较高水平。低利率和宽裕的流动性是否会支撑房价继续走高？李迅雷：这个肯定是有一定支撑的，并且我认为利率下行趋势还没到位。最近这段时间，利率债的下跌，是因为大家都在预期宽信用，而降息的可能性似乎不大。但我觉得，下半年经济依然有下行压力，预计还是会继续降息。如果降息的话，对于资本市场、房地产市场都是一个利好因素。《巴伦周刊》中文版：您常常从人口流动视角分析不同城市的房地产市场。目前来看，还有哪些城市的人口趋势是有利于当地房地产市场的？李迅雷：我先不讲房价会怎样，因为谁也说不准如今的房价水平是不是已经反映了未来的预期变化。就像股价上涨了，你说当前的股价是不是已经反映了大家对公司盈利增长的预期？我不知道。但是，至少从2019年人口数据来看的话，人口净流入最多的省份是浙江省，其中90%的人口增量流到了杭州和宁波。而今年杭州和宁波的房价涨幅也名列全国前茅。说明房价与人口流向存在明显相关性。我觉得整个中国人口未来会集中到三条线上。第一条线就是粤港澳大湾区，包括深圳、广州、佛山，以及珠海、东莞和惠州。第二条线是杭州湾湾区。除了杭州、宁波之外，还包括像嘉兴、绍兴。第三条线是长江经济带，东部包含了上海、南京、无锡、苏州、南通。这几个城市的人口也是净流入的。再往中游的话，主要是长沙和武汉，往西部的话主要就是重庆、成都。未来这三条线上的城市人口还是会不断增加的，中国的大城市化进程方兴未艾，人口集中度会越来越高。05 房地产投资回报率下降，配置金融资产是长期逻辑《巴伦周刊》中文版：有机构认为，居民财富正在从房地产和银行体系中走出来，朝着股市转移或者「搬家」，并且认为这会是一种长期趋势。您怎么看？您也观察到了这样的趋势吗？李迅雷：判断这种趋势，我们要用数据来说话。从数据来看，我们没有发现就大量的资金从房地产流出，因为房价现在还比较稳定。没有确切数据可以证明资金在从楼市流到股市。至于储蓄「搬家」，居民存款也没有特别明显的减少。但有一点，目前居民收入是略有下降，而消费是大幅下降。这表明资金从消费领域转移到投资领域。我们看到，公募基金的发行规模出现比较明显的扩大，这说明股市增量资金有相当一部分是来自于居民对公募基金的申购。另外，今年3月以来外资出现净流入，这也是股市增量资金的一个来源。《巴伦周刊》中文版：那么如果现在有投资者在投资房产和投资股票之间面临两难选择，您能给出一些建议吗？李迅雷：房子价格越来越高，随着分母变大，它的投资回报率其实是在下降的。比如说，10多年前，你以每平方米5000元的价格买一套房子，可能现在涨到每平方米五万元，十倍的投资回报率；但你现在以每平米五万元买房，未来要涨到每平米十万元，即实现一倍的回报率会更有难度。而且，不是每个城市都有这样的增长潜力。另一方面，比房地产更好的那些投资工具如今也更加丰富了。我觉得我们应该更多地去配置金融资产，这是一个长期逻辑。中国居民资产配置中，房地产的配置比重过大，大概在70%左右。美国大概30%左右。从未来大格局来讲，应该降低房地产的配置比例，增加金融资产的配置比例。金融资产里面又分为股票、债券、公募基金等产品，准金融资产里边还包括黄金等等。我们现在其实面临着「货币多、好资产少」这样一个格局，我们应该配置的是好资产、稀缺资产。随之而来的一个问题是：稀缺资产的估值是不是太高了？我的建议还是要找专业的人士，把钱委托给优秀的基金经理来配置，他们可以判断目前所谓好资产的估值到底是贵还是便宜。就股票投资而言，买股票就是买未来，我们是基于未来预期来判断目前股价到底是贵还是便宜。如果说它的盈利未来能够保持每年30%到50%的增长，那么这样的股票现在很多是非常便宜的。《巴伦周刊》中文版：从今年下半年到明年上半年，各大类资产当中您比较看好的是哪些？李迅雷：第一个，我还是比较看好权益资产。主要是我前面讲的好公司、好的行业。这个话讲起来容易，实际操作过程中，可能大部分投资者都不具备寻找好公司、好的稀缺资产的能力。我的建议还是买那些优秀基金经理所管理的基金，这是这么多年来最重要的经验。第二类，我看好黄金。我认为未来存在资产泡沫破灭的风险，还可能出现全球经济下行、金融动荡、甚至战争等的风险。此外，货币超发是这次疫情下的货币当局普遍做法。事实上，从1929年至今，美元纸币增长了330倍，而美国经济实际只增长了16倍，黄金存量只增长了6.7倍。从1971年开始算，美元纸币增长了21倍，美国经济实际增长2.7倍，黄金存量只增长了1.1倍。从这个角度来讲的话，黄金既是避险工具，又是投资品。对于风险厌恶型的投资者，可以关注一些固定收益类的低风险产品，比如利率债、一些货币型产品、保本理财产品等等。至于房地产，对于那些人口持续净流入的发达大城市，我觉得还是可以持有，如日本东京在经历了房地产泡沫破灭之后，还会创新高。不过，从大类资产的角度来看，我认为房地产不是一个很好的配置工具。《巴伦周刊》中文版：谢谢您的分享。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1956,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":954150942,"gmtCreate":1592834188586,"gmtModify":1704200294279,"author":{"id":"3484638089488131","authorId":"3484638089488131","name":"鹿引","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db46d53e92be3690416b1cf5e712f90c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484638089488131","authorIdStr":"3484638089488131"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>有点突然。[可怜]&nbsp;","text":"$西方石油(OXY)$有点突然。[可怜]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab56a31ceced7bda957775d7da9ef0e","width":"1242","height":"2391"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/956191665","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":951133655,"gmtCreate":1590675714477,"gmtModify":1704193380288,"author":{"id":"3484638089488131","authorId":"3484638089488131","name":"鹿引","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db46d53e92be3690416b1cf5e712f90c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484638089488131","authorIdStr":"3484638089488131"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还是感觉自家的韭菜味道正[打脸]&nbsp;","listText":"还是感觉自家的韭菜味道正[打脸]&nbsp;","text":"还是感觉自家的韭菜味道正[打脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/951133655","repostId":"2038615122","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2038615122","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1590672835,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2038615122?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-28 21:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"拥抱国资+回国上市，李斌能给蔚来一个新的未来吗","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2038615122","media":"亿欧网","summary":"2020年第一季度成为蔚来史上最低亏损单季。","content":"<p><span>作者：张男</span></p><p>2020年Q1财报刚一发布，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>盘前一度跌超10%，开盘后跌幅超过6%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dc97be4afcc100a2026d2feeb6d1520\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p>5月28日晚间，蔚来2020年第一季度财报新鲜出炉。<b>财报显示，蔚来当季总营收13.7亿元，同比减少15.9%；经营性亏损15.7亿元，环比收窄44%，同比收窄40%。</b></p><p>此前彭博14位分析师曾对蔚来第一季度财报做出“营收12.87亿元，经营性亏损19.16亿元”的预期。如此看来，蔚来此次披露的营收和净亏数据均优于预期。</p><p><b>2020年第一季度成为蔚来史上最低亏损单季。</b>蔚来汽车首席财务官奉玮表示，公司在新冠疫情爆发期间采取的成本控制措施起了作用，这同时也是蔚来过去几个季度不断运营优化和费用控制的初步回报。“这将推动我们以后的业绩呈现积极状态。”他说。</p><p><img src=\"https://diting-hetu.iyiou.com/15906716733800.jpg\" tg-width=\"1818\" tg-height=\"1410\"></p><p>受年初疫情影响，蔚来2020Q1在设计和开发活动的费用投入大幅减少，这导致其研发费用下降。今年第一季度，蔚来在研发方面投入5.14亿元，环比下降49.3％，同比下降50.8％。</p><p>财务数据表现堪忧的同时，蔚来第一季度交付量也有所下降。财报显示，其当季共交付3838辆汽车，包括195辆ES8和3643辆ES6。虽然第一季度表现不佳，但李斌表示，蔚来的产品和服务竞争力使其目前的订单增长量反弹至疫情爆发前水平，今年4月公司共交付3155辆汽车——近乎第一季度总交付量。</p><p><img src=\"https://diting-hetu.iyiou.com/15906725246698.jpg\" tg-width=\"1806\" tg-height=\"1410\"></p><p>但随着车市整体回暖，蔚来在二季度预期中表现出了乐观的态度，李斌表示：<b>“预计第二季度交付9500至10000辆汽车，有望创下季度交付记录。”</b></p><p>从毛利率角度来看，蔚来情况依旧不容乐观。2020Q1财报显示，蔚来车辆毛利率为-7.4%，不及上季度的-6%；整体毛利率为-12.2%，较上季度也有所扩大。蔚来将毛利下降归因于2020年第一季度ES6和ES8生产和交付量的减少。</p><p><img src=\"https://diting-hetu.iyiou.com/15906725673863.jpg\" tg-width=\"1806\" tg-height=\"1410\"></p><p>毛利的低下使蔚来处于“销量增长却持续亏损”的尴尬境地，这种“几乎每卖一辆车都在亏钱”的情况已困扰蔚来良久。李斌曾不止一次地表示，毛利率提升是蔚来2020年要达成的目标之一，希望年底毛利率达到两位数。2019年，李斌也曾坚定称：“对2020年的毛利转正完全有信心，但具体在哪个月、哪个季度实现，还要取决于销量、电池成本、管理效率等综合情况。”</p><p>在晚间的财报电话会议中，李斌称：“公司整车业务毛利率有望在二季度达到5%。”</p><p>一切都在向好发展。最近，蔚来宣布总部正式落户合肥，并与合肥市建设投资控股（集团）有限公司、国投招商投资管理有限公司、安徽省高新技术产业投资有限公司等战略投资者，签署了关于投资蔚来中国的最终协议。与此同时，蔚来中国获得了来自战略投资者的70亿元投资，将用于公司研发、市场体系建立和运营，规划建设总部及研发基地、第二生产基地。这意味着蔚来有望继续扩大生产，提升产能。</p><p>根据评估，蔚来表示，现有的营运资金、及来自蔚来中国投资的资金和可用的贷款安排足以支持公司未来十二个月的持续运营和发展。</p><p>“战略投资者将提供足够的资金来支持蔚来业务发展。从长远来看，蔚来中国在合肥的总部的建立将进一步提高我们的运营效率。”李斌表示。<b>他在随后的财报电话会中透露，蔚来中国公司有可能在中国上市，但公司将根据市场情况进行规划。</b></p><p>另一方面，在持续支出的同时，蔚来也在努力缩减成本。财报显示，蔚来在2019年底优化了销售网络，提高促销效率并缩减员工数量，这使其2020Q1的销售、一般和管理费用下降至8.25亿元，环比减少45.3％，同比减少33.2％。</p><p><b>开源节流之下，蔚来对第二季度作出展望：营收在33.684亿元至35.342亿元，交付车辆在9500到10000辆。</b></p><p>利好信号不止于此。今年4月，财政部、工信部、科技部、发展改革委发布关于完善新能源汽车推广应用财政补贴政策的通知。其中规定，此后只有售价30万元以下的车辆才能享受新能源乘用车补贴，但支持换电的车辆不受该规定限制。“30万元以上”、“支持换电”，两项限制直接锁定蔚来，甚至有网友将其称之为“蔚来专补”。</p><p>“根据新的政策，蔚来成为售价30万元以上、唯一可以享受补贴的豪华电动汽车品牌。蔚来将加快制定BaaS相关的产品和服务解决方案，实现真正的车电分离。这一服务预计今年下半年正式推出。”李斌在财报电话会议中表示。</p><p>但对于眼下的蔚来来说，任务仍然艰巨，毛利率转正似乎还需要很长的路要走。</p>","source":"iyiou_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n拥抱国资+回国上市，李斌能给蔚来一个新的未来吗\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-28 21:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.iyiou.com/p/128565.html><strong>亿欧网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：张男2020年Q1财报刚一发布，蔚来盘前一度跌超10%，开盘后跌幅超过6%。5月28日晚间，蔚来2020年第一季度财报新鲜出炉。财报显示，蔚来当季总营收13.7亿元，同比减少15.9%；经营性亏损15.7亿元，环比收窄44%，同比收窄40%。此前彭博14位分析师曾对蔚来第一季度财报做出“营收12.87亿元，经营性亏损19.16亿元”的预期。如此看来，蔚来此次披露的营收和净亏数据均优于预期。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.iyiou.com/p/128565.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://diting-hetu.iyiou.com/15739814637418.jpg?imageView2/1/w/900/h/600/format/jpg","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.iyiou.com/p/128565.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2038615122","content_text":"作者：张男2020年Q1财报刚一发布，蔚来盘前一度跌超10%，开盘后跌幅超过6%。5月28日晚间，蔚来2020年第一季度财报新鲜出炉。财报显示，蔚来当季总营收13.7亿元，同比减少15.9%；经营性亏损15.7亿元，环比收窄44%，同比收窄40%。此前彭博14位分析师曾对蔚来第一季度财报做出“营收12.87亿元，经营性亏损19.16亿元”的预期。如此看来，蔚来此次披露的营收和净亏数据均优于预期。2020年第一季度成为蔚来史上最低亏损单季。蔚来汽车首席财务官奉玮表示，公司在新冠疫情爆发期间采取的成本控制措施起了作用，这同时也是蔚来过去几个季度不断运营优化和费用控制的初步回报。“这将推动我们以后的业绩呈现积极状态。”他说。受年初疫情影响，蔚来2020Q1在设计和开发活动的费用投入大幅减少，这导致其研发费用下降。今年第一季度，蔚来在研发方面投入5.14亿元，环比下降49.3％，同比下降50.8％。财务数据表现堪忧的同时，蔚来第一季度交付量也有所下降。财报显示，其当季共交付3838辆汽车，包括195辆ES8和3643辆ES6。虽然第一季度表现不佳，但李斌表示，蔚来的产品和服务竞争力使其目前的订单增长量反弹至疫情爆发前水平，今年4月公司共交付3155辆汽车——近乎第一季度总交付量。但随着车市整体回暖，蔚来在二季度预期中表现出了乐观的态度，李斌表示：“预计第二季度交付9500至10000辆汽车，有望创下季度交付记录。”从毛利率角度来看，蔚来情况依旧不容乐观。2020Q1财报显示，蔚来车辆毛利率为-7.4%，不及上季度的-6%；整体毛利率为-12.2%，较上季度也有所扩大。蔚来将毛利下降归因于2020年第一季度ES6和ES8生产和交付量的减少。毛利的低下使蔚来处于“销量增长却持续亏损”的尴尬境地，这种“几乎每卖一辆车都在亏钱”的情况已困扰蔚来良久。李斌曾不止一次地表示，毛利率提升是蔚来2020年要达成的目标之一，希望年底毛利率达到两位数。2019年，李斌也曾坚定称：“对2020年的毛利转正完全有信心，但具体在哪个月、哪个季度实现，还要取决于销量、电池成本、管理效率等综合情况。”在晚间的财报电话会议中，李斌称：“公司整车业务毛利率有望在二季度达到5%。”一切都在向好发展。最近，蔚来宣布总部正式落户合肥，并与合肥市建设投资控股（集团）有限公司、国投招商投资管理有限公司、安徽省高新技术产业投资有限公司等战略投资者，签署了关于投资蔚来中国的最终协议。与此同时，蔚来中国获得了来自战略投资者的70亿元投资，将用于公司研发、市场体系建立和运营，规划建设总部及研发基地、第二生产基地。这意味着蔚来有望继续扩大生产，提升产能。根据评估，蔚来表示，现有的营运资金、及来自蔚来中国投资的资金和可用的贷款安排足以支持公司未来十二个月的持续运营和发展。“战略投资者将提供足够的资金来支持蔚来业务发展。从长远来看，蔚来中国在合肥的总部的建立将进一步提高我们的运营效率。”李斌表示。他在随后的财报电话会中透露，蔚来中国公司有可能在中国上市，但公司将根据市场情况进行规划。另一方面，在持续支出的同时，蔚来也在努力缩减成本。财报显示，蔚来在2019年底优化了销售网络，提高促销效率并缩减员工数量，这使其2020Q1的销售、一般和管理费用下降至8.25亿元，环比减少45.3％，同比减少33.2％。开源节流之下，蔚来对第二季度作出展望：营收在33.684亿元至35.342亿元，交付车辆在9500到10000辆。利好信号不止于此。今年4月，财政部、工信部、科技部、发展改革委发布关于完善新能源汽车推广应用财政补贴政策的通知。其中规定，此后只有售价30万元以下的车辆才能享受新能源乘用车补贴，但支持换电的车辆不受该规定限制。“30万元以上”、“支持换电”，两项限制直接锁定蔚来，甚至有网友将其称之为“蔚来专补”。“根据新的政策，蔚来成为售价30万元以上、唯一可以享受补贴的豪华电动汽车品牌。蔚来将加快制定BaaS相关的产品和服务解决方案，实现真正的车电分离。这一服务预计今年下半年正式推出。”李斌在财报电话会议中表示。但对于眼下的蔚来来说，任务仍然艰巨，毛利率转正似乎还需要很长的路要走。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":918550335,"gmtCreate":1579050488627,"gmtModify":1704338747263,"author":{"id":"3484638089488131","authorId":"3484638089488131","name":"鹿引","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db46d53e92be3690416b1cf5e712f90c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484638089488131","authorIdStr":"3484638089488131"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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