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老虎认证: 交易员、分析师、研究员。投资理念以价值为主,技术为辅。
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科技猿人
2021-07-05
美股将在下半年迎来股灾级回调!
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$标普500(.SPX)$
科技猿人
2021-03-11
开始考虑建立小米多头,还是等等再跌一跌?
@科技猿人:
$小米集团-W(01810)$
等着小米公司开始执行回购再建仓。
科技猿人
2021-02-12
$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$
继续持有!
科技猿人
2021-02-04
$中芯国际(00981)$
一起发财![龇牙]
科技猿人
2021-01-29
$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$
如果FF重组成功,根据公开数据,30 以下价格都超级合适。
科技猿人
2021-01-26
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
抱歉,原内容已删除
科技猿人
2021-01-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
看空看空,继续看空!市值万亿之时,就是空仓建立之时!很高风险2021年特斯拉会被 USA 先卸磨杀驴!未来三年
$理想汽车(LI)$
也最有可能会先掉队吧!
科技猿人
2021-01-24
$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$
大举买入!
科技猿人
2021-01-23
$阜博集团(03738)$
又一家躺在联交所的骗子公司。
科技猿人
2021-01-22
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
虎友们赚到钱了么?前面唱多了很多次,现在做空啦[得意]
@科技猿人:
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
短线看技术指标,中长线看企业价值,两者都没问题,年内看到15块!
科技猿人
2021-01-22
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@毕肯证券学院:抄底阿里巴巴的小伙伴,是否可以收网了?
科技猿人
2021-01-20
牛市不改,耐心持有
科技猿人
2021-01-20
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
严重脱离基本面,早晚只剩一地鸡毛。
科技猿人
2021-01-15
大家说这次跌到多少合适?小米pr就是NC!
@科技猿人:
$小米集团-W(01810)$
最近小米到处PR强调:“物联网和5G属性”,确实引起了较大的市场关注度,也助推了股价在短时间内完成上攻,但这也导致美国智库的关注度急剧上升,为什么偏要要选这个时候讲这个故事?美国断供暴雷的风险已非常高!
科技猿人
2021-01-12
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
平仓了![财迷]
科技猿人
2021-01-07
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
特斯拉业务永远无法支撑现在的股价,暴跌是早晚的事。
科技猿人
2020-12-19
虎友们,可以给我投一票么[爱你]已投票的找我领红包哈[爱你] [爱你]
@小虎活动:2020老虎新锐人物评选开始啦,年度新星由你定!
科技猿人
2020-12-18
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
特斯拉不需要洗车,因为再脏都能舔干净[龇牙]
科技猿人
2020-12-10
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
按照这个跌法,10天就90了[捂脸]
科技猿人
2020-12-08
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
下周内破五块?[龇牙]
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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","text":"$中芯国际(00981)$一起发财![龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317869588","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":17100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316859921,"gmtCreate":1611928883163,"gmtModify":1703756458939,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3463706409850422","idStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSAC\">$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$</a>如果FF重组成功,根据公开数据,30 以下价格都超级合适。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSAC\">$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$</a>如果FF重组成功,根据公开数据,30 以下价格都超级合适。","text":"$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$如果FF重组成功,根据公开数据,30 以下价格都超级合适。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316859921","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3462110539633696","authorId":"3462110539633696","name":"董盛任","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e85224c9e22a913e14edd0f48f65f3d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3462110539633696","idStr":"3462110539633696"},"content":"关键是现在连招股书都没看到","text":"关键是现在连招股书都没看到","html":"关键是现在连招股书都没看到"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319570589,"gmtCreate":1611591344341,"gmtModify":1703751467144,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3463706409850422","idStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319570589","repostId":"2106443387","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":18236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319957202,"gmtCreate":1611496386506,"gmtModify":1703750607297,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3463706409850422","idStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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虽然短期的波动与市场情绪相关,但长期来看股价一定是在企业价值附近波动;无论近期市场的情绪如何高涨,特斯拉的股价终究会回到合理价值。但特斯拉究竟值多少钱呢?今天,我们就一起来看下特斯拉的估值。首先说几个基础信息: 特斯拉2020年销量目标:50万辆;全球电动车预估:250万辆 2025年全球电车销量预估:1100万辆 中国是特斯拉二大市场,最新占比 30% 特斯拉是一家高端电动车制造商!车均价:5.7万美金。 先说未来假设特斯拉2020年市场份额从现在的20%市场份额快速上升到:35%,特斯拉的销量 = 1100万 * 0.35 = 385万量;假设5年后,所有其他竞争者没形成威胁,特斯拉汽车依旧每辆可卖:5.7万美金,则特斯拉收入为:385万 * 5.7万 = 2194亿美金;假设马斯克真的是超人,能在5年内实现和丰田汽车一样全球最高利润率:7%,则利润为:2194 * 0.07 = 153亿,我们按照宇宙最牛FLAAG科技公司的PE平均值,也就是40倍PE来给特斯拉估值,则特斯拉的理想+浪漫主义估值为:153亿 * 40 = 6120亿,特斯拉总股本9.32亿股,则对应股价为:6120亿 / 9.32亿 = 656块!所以,这个价格是特斯拉在2025年前,必定达不到的价格,这是不可能达到的上限!再说当下2020年上半年,特斯拉全球共交付了17.9万辆车,假设特斯拉今年可以完成销售目标:50万辆,则特斯拉实现","listText":"近日,Contributor分析师大卫·特雷纳(David Trainer)在金融时报的采访中表示:“由于越来越多的投资者担心,3月中旬以来的牛市行情会逆转,他们会首先从持有的投资组合中消除高风险的配股。在我应出售的高风险股票清单中,特斯拉(TSLA)是排在首要位置的。” 自9月以来,特斯拉已累计下跌超 30%,不少投资者会问:“特斯拉回调到位了吗?现在可以抄底么?” 虽然短期的波动与市场情绪相关,但长期来看股价一定是在企业价值附近波动;无论近期市场的情绪如何高涨,特斯拉的股价终究会回到合理价值。但特斯拉究竟值多少钱呢?今天,我们就一起来看下特斯拉的估值。首先说几个基础信息: 特斯拉2020年销量目标:50万辆;全球电动车预估:250万辆 2025年全球电车销量预估:1100万辆 中国是特斯拉二大市场,最新占比 30% 特斯拉是一家高端电动车制造商!车均价:5.7万美金。 先说未来假设特斯拉2020年市场份额从现在的20%市场份额快速上升到:35%,特斯拉的销量 = 1100万 * 0.35 = 385万量;假设5年后,所有其他竞争者没形成威胁,特斯拉汽车依旧每辆可卖:5.7万美金,则特斯拉收入为:385万 * 5.7万 = 2194亿美金;假设马斯克真的是超人,能在5年内实现和丰田汽车一样全球最高利润率:7%,则利润为:2194 * 0.07 = 153亿,我们按照宇宙最牛FLAAG科技公司的PE平均值,也就是40倍PE来给特斯拉估值,则特斯拉的理想+浪漫主义估值为:153亿 * 40 = 6120亿,特斯拉总股本9.32亿股,则对应股价为:6120亿 / 9.32亿 = 656块!所以,这个价格是特斯拉在2025年前,必定达不到的价格,这是不可能达到的上限!再说当下2020年上半年,特斯拉全球共交付了17.9万辆车,假设特斯拉今年可以完成销售目标:50万辆,则特斯拉实现","text":"近日,Contributor分析师大卫·特雷纳(David Trainer)在金融时报的采访中表示:“由于越来越多的投资者担心,3月中旬以来的牛市行情会逆转,他们会首先从持有的投资组合中消除高风险的配股。在我应出售的高风险股票清单中,特斯拉(TSLA)是排在首要位置的。” 自9月以来,特斯拉已累计下跌超 30%,不少投资者会问:“特斯拉回调到位了吗?现在可以抄底么?” 虽然短期的波动与市场情绪相关,但长期来看股价一定是在企业价值附近波动;无论近期市场的情绪如何高涨,特斯拉的股价终究会回到合理价值。但特斯拉究竟值多少钱呢?今天,我们就一起来看下特斯拉的估值。首先说几个基础信息: 特斯拉2020年销量目标:50万辆;全球电动车预估:250万辆 2025年全球电车销量预估:1100万辆 中国是特斯拉二大市场,最新占比 30% 特斯拉是一家高端电动车制造商!车均价:5.7万美金。 先说未来假设特斯拉2020年市场份额从现在的20%市场份额快速上升到:35%,特斯拉的销量 = 1100万 * 0.35 = 385万量;假设5年后,所有其他竞争者没形成威胁,特斯拉汽车依旧每辆可卖:5.7万美金,则特斯拉收入为:385万 * 5.7万 = 2194亿美金;假设马斯克真的是超人,能在5年内实现和丰田汽车一样全球最高利润率:7%,则利润为:2194 * 0.07 = 153亿,我们按照宇宙最牛FLAAG科技公司的PE平均值,也就是40倍PE来给特斯拉估值,则特斯拉的理想+浪漫主义估值为:153亿 * 40 = 6120亿,特斯拉总股本9.32亿股,则对应股价为:6120亿 / 9.32亿 = 656块!所以,这个价格是特斯拉在2025年前,必定达不到的价格,这是不可能达到的上限!再说当下2020年上半年,特斯拉全球共交付了17.9万辆车,假设特斯拉今年可以完成销售目标:50万辆,则特斯拉实现","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36aeb33a570f2f8bbcaf1760241c48f6","width":"0","height":"0"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b84c0657e2aa76559f9d91c6e3548a7","width":"0","height":"0"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba91d1349f1690d34c8cb1c6faa532e8","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":240,"commentSize":159,"repostSize":279,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976601234","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3460436029322658","authorId":"3460436029322658","name":"古董姑娘Ab","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3460436029322658","authorIdStr":"3460436029322658"},"content":"我觉得楼主分析的很理性。 一家企业可以因为一时的风口走的风调雨顺,但终究会有来临审判,回归理性的那一天。 只不过拭目以待而已。至于一些傻叉企业说特斯拉值7000亿,我觉得简直有点搞笑,甚至觉得有些愚蠢。他们无非想快捞一笔,说大家快看,我们看似专业的都这么评估了,小散快来买,最后他们盈利走人。 不懂价值投资,只懂投机的人,终究会接受现实,只是时间而已。","text":"我觉得楼主分析的很理性。 一家企业可以因为一时的风口走的风调雨顺,但终究会有来临审判,回归理性的那一天。 只不过拭目以待而已。至于一些傻叉企业说特斯拉值7000亿,我觉得简直有点搞笑,甚至觉得有些愚蠢。他们无非想快捞一笔,说大家快看,我们看似专业的都这么评估了,小散快来买,最后他们盈利走人。 不懂价值投资,只懂投机的人,终究会接受现实,只是时间而已。","html":"我觉得楼主分析的很理性。 一家企业可以因为一时的风口走的风调雨顺,但终究会有来临审判,回归理性的那一天。 只不过拭目以待而已。至于一些傻叉企业说特斯拉值7000亿,我觉得简直有点搞笑,甚至觉得有些愚蠢。他们无非想快捞一笔,说大家快看,我们看似专业的都这么评估了,小散快来买,最后他们盈利走人。 不懂价值投资,只懂投机的人,终究会接受现实,只是时间而已。"}],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":978795472,"gmtCreate":1599462653196,"gmtModify":1703818545746,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463706409850422","authorIdStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"title":"中芯国际是否还值得投资?","htmlText":"近日,由于美国政府的威胁,导致单日跌幅超 22%,中芯国际还值得作为投资标的么?今天先从基本面入手,分析下面临的风险与机遇。中芯国际是中国内地最大的芯片制造商,2019年的收入达到了220亿元人民币(31亿美元)。按销售额计算,中芯国际是全球第四大独立芯片制造商,仅次于台积电 、格罗方德和台联电。但是,如果统计所有半导体生产商,包括英特尔、三星半导体等参与者,中芯甚至不能进入世界前十名。中芯国际的发展,不仅和对存量市场的收割有关,也和产业的分工变化有很大关联,这其中又包含了国家安全,贸易和技术等多重因素的影响。中芯国际的主要股东是国有和央资企业。选择在上海二次上市,表明中芯国际认为靠中国投资者可以实现最佳增长。虽然曾在纽交所上市,但由于交易量过低,一年前就退市了。通过二次上市,中芯国际一共募得 532亿人民币(约75亿美金)。目前,我国的芯片供应大都来自外国公司,芯片为国内生产的智能手机、计算机和电信设备提供各种芯片。据统计,去年我国进口了3060亿美元的芯片,占进口总值的15%,超过了石油总进口额。我国计划将在2030年前改善芯片制造技术,并与业界最先进的领导者匹敌。另外,通过“中国制造2025”计划,正试图与美国在开发未来技术方面进行竞争,但面对美国近期针对性的制裁措施,这个计划的执行已经受到打压。分析人士说,中芯国际要成为全球竞争者还有很长的路要走。花旗分析师在研究报告中写道:“中芯国际在技术上落后于台积电五年,我们相信这种差距将在未来五年内持续存在。”杰富瑞(Jefferies)的分析师在最近的一份研究报告中写道:“台积电(TSMC)和三星(Samsung)具有生产微型芯片组的能力,这可以将更多技术整合到更小的空间中,从而取得竞争优势”。中芯国际在招股说明书中承认,它必须缩小与全球领导者之间的差距,这会在研发上花费更多。随着中美紧张局势升级,中芯国际也面临着巨大风险","listText":"近日,由于美国政府的威胁,导致单日跌幅超 22%,中芯国际还值得作为投资标的么?今天先从基本面入手,分析下面临的风险与机遇。中芯国际是中国内地最大的芯片制造商,2019年的收入达到了220亿元人民币(31亿美元)。按销售额计算,中芯国际是全球第四大独立芯片制造商,仅次于台积电 、格罗方德和台联电。但是,如果统计所有半导体生产商,包括英特尔、三星半导体等参与者,中芯甚至不能进入世界前十名。中芯国际的发展,不仅和对存量市场的收割有关,也和产业的分工变化有很大关联,这其中又包含了国家安全,贸易和技术等多重因素的影响。中芯国际的主要股东是国有和央资企业。选择在上海二次上市,表明中芯国际认为靠中国投资者可以实现最佳增长。虽然曾在纽交所上市,但由于交易量过低,一年前就退市了。通过二次上市,中芯国际一共募得 532亿人民币(约75亿美金)。目前,我国的芯片供应大都来自外国公司,芯片为国内生产的智能手机、计算机和电信设备提供各种芯片。据统计,去年我国进口了3060亿美元的芯片,占进口总值的15%,超过了石油总进口额。我国计划将在2030年前改善芯片制造技术,并与业界最先进的领导者匹敌。另外,通过“中国制造2025”计划,正试图与美国在开发未来技术方面进行竞争,但面对美国近期针对性的制裁措施,这个计划的执行已经受到打压。分析人士说,中芯国际要成为全球竞争者还有很长的路要走。花旗分析师在研究报告中写道:“中芯国际在技术上落后于台积电五年,我们相信这种差距将在未来五年内持续存在。”杰富瑞(Jefferies)的分析师在最近的一份研究报告中写道:“台积电(TSMC)和三星(Samsung)具有生产微型芯片组的能力,这可以将更多技术整合到更小的空间中,从而取得竞争优势”。中芯国际在招股说明书中承认,它必须缩小与全球领导者之间的差距,这会在研发上花费更多。随着中美紧张局势升级,中芯国际也面临着巨大风险","text":"近日,由于美国政府的威胁,导致单日跌幅超 22%,中芯国际还值得作为投资标的么?今天先从基本面入手,分析下面临的风险与机遇。中芯国际是中国内地最大的芯片制造商,2019年的收入达到了220亿元人民币(31亿美元)。按销售额计算,中芯国际是全球第四大独立芯片制造商,仅次于台积电 、格罗方德和台联电。但是,如果统计所有半导体生产商,包括英特尔、三星半导体等参与者,中芯甚至不能进入世界前十名。中芯国际的发展,不仅和对存量市场的收割有关,也和产业的分工变化有很大关联,这其中又包含了国家安全,贸易和技术等多重因素的影响。中芯国际的主要股东是国有和央资企业。选择在上海二次上市,表明中芯国际认为靠中国投资者可以实现最佳增长。虽然曾在纽交所上市,但由于交易量过低,一年前就退市了。通过二次上市,中芯国际一共募得 532亿人民币(约75亿美金)。目前,我国的芯片供应大都来自外国公司,芯片为国内生产的智能手机、计算机和电信设备提供各种芯片。据统计,去年我国进口了3060亿美元的芯片,占进口总值的15%,超过了石油总进口额。我国计划将在2030年前改善芯片制造技术,并与业界最先进的领导者匹敌。另外,通过“中国制造2025”计划,正试图与美国在开发未来技术方面进行竞争,但面对美国近期针对性的制裁措施,这个计划的执行已经受到打压。分析人士说,中芯国际要成为全球竞争者还有很长的路要走。花旗分析师在研究报告中写道:“中芯国际在技术上落后于台积电五年,我们相信这种差距将在未来五年内持续存在。”杰富瑞(Jefferies)的分析师在最近的一份研究报告中写道:“台积电(TSMC)和三星(Samsung)具有生产微型芯片组的能力,这可以将更多技术整合到更小的空间中,从而取得竞争优势”。中芯国际在招股说明书中承认,它必须缩小与全球领导者之间的差距,这会在研发上花费更多。随着中美紧张局势升级,中芯国际也面临着巨大风险","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07eb79abb3043f0a55326e36d0e5d017","width":"688","height":"441"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/277c5673f3974416ca9794bb7347db2a","width":"688","height":"462"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a7551da88aa226c10628dd3bc0b426","width":"688","height":"425"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":155,"commentSize":117,"repostSize":93,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978795472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3513899631032529","authorId":"3513899631032529","name":"T20211222002","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3513899631032529","authorIdStr":"3513899631032529"},"content":"说实话 川普手下 智库 都是华人 更有甚者 是从小就在大陆生活的人, 他们给川普出的主意 真的是精准打击啊","text":"说实话 川普手下 智库 都是华人 更有甚者 是从小就在大陆生活的人, 他们给川普出的主意 真的是精准打击啊","html":"说实话 川普手下 智库 都是华人 更有甚者 是从小就在大陆生活的人, 他们给川普出的主意 真的是精准打击啊"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":978557632,"gmtCreate":1599313456126,"gmtModify":1703818350780,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463706409850422","authorIdStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"title":"牛市已去,熊市将至","htmlText":"1929年大崩溃之前,华尔街几乎所有玩家都对1921年开始的10年大牛市记忆犹新。而且美国历史上这段牛市是由共和党执政期间发生的自由市场经济繁荣支撑的。在1929年9月3日道琼斯指数触及381.17点开始下跌时,几乎所有人都不以为然。因为从过去10年的经验看,股票投资买的是未来而不是当下,那些优质的公司股票下挫后终究还会很快涨回来。但最后华尔街一直等待到1954年12月份,道琼斯指数才最终收复了1929年的381.17点高位。在1929年信奉买入并持有一定赚大钱的人们因为“买东西不看价格”付出了整整25年的代价。人们在1929年以后不敢再相信买入并持有是一个很好的股票投资策略。华尔街对市盈率高一些的股票总是像“看到毒蛇一样”回避。证券投资之父本杰明.格雷厄姆提出的“烟蒂”投资,被没有大萧条记忆的后人所诟病。人们没有经历过格雷厄姆那一代人的痛苦,当然也不能理解格雷厄姆说得:“别跟我说太远的未来,我就看当下是不是价格足够低。”二战后,整个世界在重新建立起来的国际秩序下趋于稳定。人类迎来了近80年的和平和繁荣。1950-1969年和1980-2000年,在股票市场买入并持有优质公司是很好的策略(1970-1980年除外)。2008年,金融危机发生后,人们害怕了。因为危机的范围太广,所有人都很担心买入并持有会失效,担心1929年的悲剧会再次发生。于是金融市场在2008年漂亮地砸出来一个坑,股票市场出乎意料的很快恢复了正常。那些杞人忧天的人们回忆起自己在6000多点卖掉的股票,后悔的捶胸顿足。经过了2008年的惊吓和恢复,华尔街不再相信1929年的事情还会发生(我判断。从漫长的历史演化来看,一定会发生。)。股票市场把每一次回调都看成买入并持有的好机会。毕竟人们曾经受到过这种投资策略的奖励。所以人们并不担心利润几乎没有增长的苹果公司是30倍还是40倍PE。中国股票市场历史更短,但像华尔","listText":"1929年大崩溃之前,华尔街几乎所有玩家都对1921年开始的10年大牛市记忆犹新。而且美国历史上这段牛市是由共和党执政期间发生的自由市场经济繁荣支撑的。在1929年9月3日道琼斯指数触及381.17点开始下跌时,几乎所有人都不以为然。因为从过去10年的经验看,股票投资买的是未来而不是当下,那些优质的公司股票下挫后终究还会很快涨回来。但最后华尔街一直等待到1954年12月份,道琼斯指数才最终收复了1929年的381.17点高位。在1929年信奉买入并持有一定赚大钱的人们因为“买东西不看价格”付出了整整25年的代价。人们在1929年以后不敢再相信买入并持有是一个很好的股票投资策略。华尔街对市盈率高一些的股票总是像“看到毒蛇一样”回避。证券投资之父本杰明.格雷厄姆提出的“烟蒂”投资,被没有大萧条记忆的后人所诟病。人们没有经历过格雷厄姆那一代人的痛苦,当然也不能理解格雷厄姆说得:“别跟我说太远的未来,我就看当下是不是价格足够低。”二战后,整个世界在重新建立起来的国际秩序下趋于稳定。人类迎来了近80年的和平和繁荣。1950-1969年和1980-2000年,在股票市场买入并持有优质公司是很好的策略(1970-1980年除外)。2008年,金融危机发生后,人们害怕了。因为危机的范围太广,所有人都很担心买入并持有会失效,担心1929年的悲剧会再次发生。于是金融市场在2008年漂亮地砸出来一个坑,股票市场出乎意料的很快恢复了正常。那些杞人忧天的人们回忆起自己在6000多点卖掉的股票,后悔的捶胸顿足。经过了2008年的惊吓和恢复,华尔街不再相信1929年的事情还会发生(我判断。从漫长的历史演化来看,一定会发生。)。股票市场把每一次回调都看成买入并持有的好机会。毕竟人们曾经受到过这种投资策略的奖励。所以人们并不担心利润几乎没有增长的苹果公司是30倍还是40倍PE。中国股票市场历史更短,但像华尔","text":"1929年大崩溃之前,华尔街几乎所有玩家都对1921年开始的10年大牛市记忆犹新。而且美国历史上这段牛市是由共和党执政期间发生的自由市场经济繁荣支撑的。在1929年9月3日道琼斯指数触及381.17点开始下跌时,几乎所有人都不以为然。因为从过去10年的经验看,股票投资买的是未来而不是当下,那些优质的公司股票下挫后终究还会很快涨回来。但最后华尔街一直等待到1954年12月份,道琼斯指数才最终收复了1929年的381.17点高位。在1929年信奉买入并持有一定赚大钱的人们因为“买东西不看价格”付出了整整25年的代价。人们在1929年以后不敢再相信买入并持有是一个很好的股票投资策略。华尔街对市盈率高一些的股票总是像“看到毒蛇一样”回避。证券投资之父本杰明.格雷厄姆提出的“烟蒂”投资,被没有大萧条记忆的后人所诟病。人们没有经历过格雷厄姆那一代人的痛苦,当然也不能理解格雷厄姆说得:“别跟我说太远的未来,我就看当下是不是价格足够低。”二战后,整个世界在重新建立起来的国际秩序下趋于稳定。人类迎来了近80年的和平和繁荣。1950-1969年和1980-2000年,在股票市场买入并持有优质公司是很好的策略(1970-1980年除外)。2008年,金融危机发生后,人们害怕了。因为危机的范围太广,所有人都很担心买入并持有会失效,担心1929年的悲剧会再次发生。于是金融市场在2008年漂亮地砸出来一个坑,股票市场出乎意料的很快恢复了正常。那些杞人忧天的人们回忆起自己在6000多点卖掉的股票,后悔的捶胸顿足。经过了2008年的惊吓和恢复,华尔街不再相信1929年的事情还会发生(我判断。从漫长的历史演化来看,一定会发生。)。股票市场把每一次回调都看成买入并持有的好机会。毕竟人们曾经受到过这种投资策略的奖励。所以人们并不担心利润几乎没有增长的苹果公司是30倍还是40倍PE。中国股票市场历史更短,但像华尔","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76a204aae339d680ac150c28f912e697","width":"1080","height":"720"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b630e050448f08e5e1dfdac297919c8c","width":"1920","height":"1200"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/488ba87136aef220fc6c3893d861f9e3","width":"600","height":"327"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":162,"commentSize":141,"repostSize":16,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978557632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":44354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3541015803020623","authorId":"3541015803020623","name":"辉_0738","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318ccac02563405df5e91442695a43e3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3541015803020623","authorIdStr":"3541015803020623"},"content":"别马后炮,有本事在市场调整前,做出预测。市场跌了,就说熊市来了,市场涨了,就说牛市来了,这样傻子都可以做专家了。","text":"别马后炮,有本事在市场调整前,做出预测。市场跌了,就说熊市来了,市场涨了,就说牛市来了,这样傻子都可以做专家了。","html":"别马后炮,有本事在市场调整前,做出预测。市场跌了,就说熊市来了,市场涨了,就说牛市来了,这样傻子都可以做专家了。"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":971843556,"gmtCreate":1598925181475,"gmtModify":1704220631727,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463706409850422","authorIdStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>我是看空特斯拉的[笑哭] 理由:特斯拉所在的豪华汽车市场,一共才6500亿美金/年的市场规模,也就决定了特斯拉即使全部收割,按照成熟市场的市销率(参考奔驰 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDAIF\">$戴姆勒汽车(DDAIF)$</a> 宝马 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMWYY\">$Bayerische Motoren Werke AG(BMWYY)$</a> )0.6左右,合理估值为:6500*0.6 = 3900亿美金这个会是3年、5年、10年甚至20年以后收割市场后的才会有的估值状态?或者永远达不到!以上未考虑重大调整,比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>进入中低端汽车市场,汽车后市场和非汽车市场,因为目前无任何迹象,也无业务驱动支撑以上重大调整。仅供参考,大家开放讨论!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>我是看空特斯拉的[笑哭] 理由:特斯拉所在的豪华汽车市场,一共才6500亿美金/年的市场规模,也就决定了特斯拉即使全部收割,按照成熟市场的市销率(参考奔驰 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDAIF\">$戴姆勒汽车(DDAIF)$</a> 宝马 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMWYY\">$Bayerische Motoren Werke AG(BMWYY)$</a> )0.6左右,合理估值为:6500*0.6 = 3900亿美金这个会是3年、5年、10年甚至20年以后收割市场后的才会有的估值状态?或者永远达不到!以上未考虑重大调整,比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>进入中低端汽车市场,汽车后市场和非汽车市场,因为目前无任何迹象,也无业务驱动支撑以上重大调整。仅供参考,大家开放讨论!","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$我是看空特斯拉的[笑哭] 理由:特斯拉所在的豪华汽车市场,一共才6500亿美金/年的市场规模,也就决定了特斯拉即使全部收割,按照成熟市场的市销率(参考奔驰 $戴姆勒汽车(DDAIF)$ 宝马 $Bayerische Motoren Werke AG(BMWYY)$ )0.6左右,合理估值为:6500*0.6 = 3900亿美金这个会是3年、5年、10年甚至20年以后收割市场后的才会有的估值状态?或者永远达不到!以上未考虑重大调整,比如$特斯拉(TSLA)$进入中低端汽车市场,汽车后市场和非汽车市场,因为目前无任何迹象,也无业务驱动支撑以上重大调整。仅供参考,大家开放讨论!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69ee2b1925d39e3ae799e8046bb4faae","width":"1092","height":"1424"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":63,"commentSize":182,"repostSize":9,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/971843556","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":31404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3520344061413641","authorId":"3520344061413641","name":"粤西马化腾","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f25248d33504e93c62ea77f59f7e0a2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3520344061413641","authorIdStr":"3520344061413641"},"content":"如果你看特斯拉只是卖车 而且是豪车的话,说明你的认知还不足以在特斯拉股票上赚钱","text":"如果你看特斯拉只是卖车 而且是豪车的话,说明你的认知还不足以在特斯拉股票上赚钱","html":"如果你看特斯拉只是卖车 而且是豪车的话,说明你的认知还不足以在特斯拉股票上赚钱"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":971894993,"gmtCreate":1598894955112,"gmtModify":1704220546977,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463706409850422","authorIdStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>市销率20,已距顶部不远!但这波洪大的资金量很难预估,只能预测大致的范围:年内市值难破7500亿,对应股价:800块。如果破800,评论区每人领取:800块!纪念八佰!立贴为证!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>市销率20,已距顶部不远!但这波洪大的资金量很难预估,只能预测大致的范围:年内市值难破7500亿,对应股价:800块。如果破800,评论区每人领取:800块!纪念八佰!立贴为证!","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$市销率20,已距顶部不远!但这波洪大的资金量很难预估,只能预测大致的范围:年内市值难破7500亿,对应股价:800块。如果破800,评论区每人领取:800块!纪念八佰!立贴为证!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":184,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/971894993","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3484307129587469","authorId":"3484307129587469","name":"屁抖抖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eee9ead30a4cb1b82795c23300fe24db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3484307129587469","authorIdStr":"3484307129587469"},"content":"一个评论值八百!","text":"一个评论值八百!","html":"一个评论值八百!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":975536060,"gmtCreate":1600751864650,"gmtModify":1703822333436,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463706409850422","authorIdStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"title":"谈谈对小米后续走势的看法","htmlText":"前期的利好基本扑空了,高通拿到针对华为的许可也迟早会发生,而且相比年初还多了林斌抛售的利空!现在最大的空头就是林斌的家族信托和慈善基金,而最大的潜在多方是小米回购计划,在小米有显著的股票回购之前,震荡下行的走势就不会结束。但大家觉得近期小米会开始回购,接盘林斌信托基金的股票么? 我觉得不会。 一是,小米没有账面资金执行,即使有对于小米这样的企业,机会成本也太高了。 二是,全球市场预期并不好,现在企业都忙着发新股、发新债收集资金,小米自然明白为什么,更明白消耗账面资金来回购股票,给小米带来的经营性风险。在这个全球大环境下,未来10年谁的现金流更充足,谁才是最终能活下来的企业。 三是,要能谈妥接盘早接了,也不会采取家族信托的方式,实现不用发布公告就能悄悄的、合法的、最保值的在二级市场出货变现。 总的来说,毕竟不会有人通过信托基金全仓持股的方式来做财富管理,更何况还是以传承为主要目的的家族信托。那么,二级市场在中短期必定会出现持续的股票抛售,在小米集团有显著的回购之前,小米震荡下行的走势不会结束。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$高通(QCOM)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$高盛(GS)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉</a>","listText":"前期的利好基本扑空了,高通拿到针对华为的许可也迟早会发生,而且相比年初还多了林斌抛售的利空!现在最大的空头就是林斌的家族信托和慈善基金,而最大的潜在多方是小米回购计划,在小米有显著的股票回购之前,震荡下行的走势就不会结束。但大家觉得近期小米会开始回购,接盘林斌信托基金的股票么? 我觉得不会。 一是,小米没有账面资金执行,即使有对于小米这样的企业,机会成本也太高了。 二是,全球市场预期并不好,现在企业都忙着发新股、发新债收集资金,小米自然明白为什么,更明白消耗账面资金来回购股票,给小米带来的经营性风险。在这个全球大环境下,未来10年谁的现金流更充足,谁才是最终能活下来的企业。 三是,要能谈妥接盘早接了,也不会采取家族信托的方式,实现不用发布公告就能悄悄的、合法的、最保值的在二级市场出货变现。 总的来说,毕竟不会有人通过信托基金全仓持股的方式来做财富管理,更何况还是以传承为主要目的的家族信托。那么,二级市场在中短期必定会出现持续的股票抛售,在小米集团有显著的回购之前,小米震荡下行的走势不会结束。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$高通(QCOM)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$高盛(GS)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉</a>","text":"前期的利好基本扑空了,高通拿到针对华为的许可也迟早会发生,而且相比年初还多了林斌抛售的利空!现在最大的空头就是林斌的家族信托和慈善基金,而最大的潜在多方是小米回购计划,在小米有显著的股票回购之前,震荡下行的走势就不会结束。但大家觉得近期小米会开始回购,接盘林斌信托基金的股票么? 我觉得不会。 一是,小米没有账面资金执行,即使有对于小米这样的企业,机会成本也太高了。 二是,全球市场预期并不好,现在企业都忙着发新股、发新债收集资金,小米自然明白为什么,更明白消耗账面资金来回购股票,给小米带来的经营性风险。在这个全球大环境下,未来10年谁的现金流更充足,谁才是最终能活下来的企业。 三是,要能谈妥接盘早接了,也不会采取家族信托的方式,实现不用发布公告就能悄悄的、合法的、最保值的在二级市场出货变现。 总的来说,毕竟不会有人通过信托基金全仓持股的方式来做财富管理,更何况还是以传承为主要目的的家族信托。那么,二级市场在中短期必定会出现持续的股票抛售,在小米集团有显著的回购之前,小米震荡下行的走势不会结束。 $小米集团-W(01810)$ $高通(QCOM)$ $英特尔(INTC)$ $高盛(GS)$ $特斯拉","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bfc6072432950e888a9214e509035c0","width":"1920","height":"1080"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":61,"commentSize":103,"repostSize":16,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/975536060","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":47926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3458771547019471","authorId":"3458771547019471","name":"大道至简z","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f88415a0b4ed0574b7e896870b6e1a3d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3458771547019471","authorIdStr":"3458771547019471"},"content":"如果苹果降价,所有国产品牌都得拉稀!!!不做多但也不会做空!!!","text":"如果苹果降价,所有国产品牌都得拉稀!!!不做多但也不会做空!!!","html":"如果苹果降价,所有国产品牌都得拉稀!!!不做多但也不会做空!!!"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976522915,"gmtCreate":1599780836037,"gmtModify":1703819701149,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463706409850422","authorIdStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>我喜欢并看好蔚来,但它的股票比特斯拉更虚高,劝大家不要碰","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>我喜欢并看好蔚来,但它的股票比特斯拉更虚高,劝大家不要碰","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$我喜欢并看好蔚来,但它的股票比特斯拉更虚高,劝大家不要碰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":63,"commentSize":93,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976522915","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3468723530792496","authorId":"3468723530792496","name":"houc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc0c18d0b3344803e6cfb26a9c09b923","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3468723530792496","authorIdStr":"3468723530792496"},"content":"还是比亚迪感觉靠谱","text":"还是比亚迪感觉靠谱","html":"还是比亚迪感觉靠谱"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":972099968,"gmtCreate":1599936260954,"gmtModify":1703820023385,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463706409850422","authorIdStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"title":"乐享互动开盘会大涨么?我们来分析下","htmlText":"这几天很多人说找不到乐友互动的官网,并质疑这家公司不靠谱,说这家公司规模太小,招股说明书和实际情况差异太大。但乐友互动究竟靠谱么?开盘会大涨么?我们一起来分析讨论下。他们是做什么的?应该是因为他们公司规模太小百度SEO都没收录检索不出来,其实不仅公司检索不到,公司所有的管理层也基本没任何信息,本质还是公司太小了,我找了下招股说明书,其中公布的网址如下:www.adjoy.com.cn,因为招股说明书里面不是很清楚,大家可以官网看下他们是做什么,虽然介绍说有3块业务:效果类营销,自媒体服务、智能推荐平台,但其实只看下面这张图中的服务就可以,因为再看下招股说明书这的收入和支出,这部分业务收入和采购支出占比均超 90%,其他两块基本是加上去做点缀。然后我们对比下腾讯广告对这部分业务的介绍如下:(https://e.qq.com/resources/wx-moments/)基本可以下定结论:这家公司就是微信公众号广告的一家代理商,本质上是一家纯粹广告销售公司,因为人群定向和推荐分发都是在ADX侧完成的,即腾讯广告平台,和乐享互动没有任何关系!乐享互动的业务是没有任何技术含量的,只要做好销售的分销工作就好。另外,我在脉脉等平台查询了他们的员工情况,也侧面印证了这一点,乐享互动员工大致只有三类:销售(70%)、行政人员(15%)、财务(5%)及少量其他。通俗易懂的说,他们就是个广告中介公司,或者是广告的黄牛公司,营收基本看天,也要看微信的“心情”吃饭,自称市场占有率1.5%也基本规模效应,其实这个业务场景也永远不会有,因为用户和市场全在平台方。最重要的是,没有技术核心竞争力!随着微信广告佣金政策收紧,财报中的利润率自然会下降!发行情况怎样?本次乐享发行价区间是:2.14~3.21HKD,上限定价比下限定价贵50%,看完心理非常没底!我们看一下刚刚上市的福禄控股:6.9~8.9,上限比下","listText":"这几天很多人说找不到乐友互动的官网,并质疑这家公司不靠谱,说这家公司规模太小,招股说明书和实际情况差异太大。但乐友互动究竟靠谱么?开盘会大涨么?我们一起来分析讨论下。他们是做什么的?应该是因为他们公司规模太小百度SEO都没收录检索不出来,其实不仅公司检索不到,公司所有的管理层也基本没任何信息,本质还是公司太小了,我找了下招股说明书,其中公布的网址如下:www.adjoy.com.cn,因为招股说明书里面不是很清楚,大家可以官网看下他们是做什么,虽然介绍说有3块业务:效果类营销,自媒体服务、智能推荐平台,但其实只看下面这张图中的服务就可以,因为再看下招股说明书这的收入和支出,这部分业务收入和采购支出占比均超 90%,其他两块基本是加上去做点缀。然后我们对比下腾讯广告对这部分业务的介绍如下:(https://e.qq.com/resources/wx-moments/)基本可以下定结论:这家公司就是微信公众号广告的一家代理商,本质上是一家纯粹广告销售公司,因为人群定向和推荐分发都是在ADX侧完成的,即腾讯广告平台,和乐享互动没有任何关系!乐享互动的业务是没有任何技术含量的,只要做好销售的分销工作就好。另外,我在脉脉等平台查询了他们的员工情况,也侧面印证了这一点,乐享互动员工大致只有三类:销售(70%)、行政人员(15%)、财务(5%)及少量其他。通俗易懂的说,他们就是个广告中介公司,或者是广告的黄牛公司,营收基本看天,也要看微信的“心情”吃饭,自称市场占有率1.5%也基本规模效应,其实这个业务场景也永远不会有,因为用户和市场全在平台方。最重要的是,没有技术核心竞争力!随着微信广告佣金政策收紧,财报中的利润率自然会下降!发行情况怎样?本次乐享发行价区间是:2.14~3.21HKD,上限定价比下限定价贵50%,看完心理非常没底!我们看一下刚刚上市的福禄控股:6.9~8.9,上限比下","text":"这几天很多人说找不到乐友互动的官网,并质疑这家公司不靠谱,说这家公司规模太小,招股说明书和实际情况差异太大。但乐友互动究竟靠谱么?开盘会大涨么?我们一起来分析讨论下。他们是做什么的?应该是因为他们公司规模太小百度SEO都没收录检索不出来,其实不仅公司检索不到,公司所有的管理层也基本没任何信息,本质还是公司太小了,我找了下招股说明书,其中公布的网址如下:www.adjoy.com.cn,因为招股说明书里面不是很清楚,大家可以官网看下他们是做什么,虽然介绍说有3块业务:效果类营销,自媒体服务、智能推荐平台,但其实只看下面这张图中的服务就可以,因为再看下招股说明书这的收入和支出,这部分业务收入和采购支出占比均超 90%,其他两块基本是加上去做点缀。然后我们对比下腾讯广告对这部分业务的介绍如下:(https://e.qq.com/resources/wx-moments/)基本可以下定结论:这家公司就是微信公众号广告的一家代理商,本质上是一家纯粹广告销售公司,因为人群定向和推荐分发都是在ADX侧完成的,即腾讯广告平台,和乐享互动没有任何关系!乐享互动的业务是没有任何技术含量的,只要做好销售的分销工作就好。另外,我在脉脉等平台查询了他们的员工情况,也侧面印证了这一点,乐享互动员工大致只有三类:销售(70%)、行政人员(15%)、财务(5%)及少量其他。通俗易懂的说,他们就是个广告中介公司,或者是广告的黄牛公司,营收基本看天,也要看微信的“心情”吃饭,自称市场占有率1.5%也基本规模效应,其实这个业务场景也永远不会有,因为用户和市场全在平台方。最重要的是,没有技术核心竞争力!随着微信广告佣金政策收紧,财报中的利润率自然会下降!发行情况怎样?本次乐享发行价区间是:2.14~3.21HKD,上限定价比下限定价贵50%,看完心理非常没底!我们看一下刚刚上市的福禄控股:6.9~8.9,上限比下","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab51aefaa50ee8b815cd85448b7b8ea4","width":"688","height":"452"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fd51da0c6d9e70509c2e853aef9685b","width":"688","height":"411"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c56d210039d00914bce189d30cac45b","width":"688","height":"414"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":31,"commentSize":86,"repostSize":15,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972099968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":43453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3513743822381928","authorId":"3513743822381928","name":"天天天天涨停板","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d3bcdd2c49a8ec314d84d8d0f1b24e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3513743822381928","authorIdStr":"3513743822381928"},"content":"这下了解到乐享是什么样的一种企业了……经营上市场份额难以寻觅,技术上可能更没啥含金量,这二者替未来铺垫的前景,真是缺乏想像空间,财务上的包装,大家也都懂得。再看那一张张脸谱,我超级讨厌网红脸……以为港股更真诚一点,可现而今眼目下的状态跟癌股里的创业板有啥区别呢?[抓狂]不赚没关系,亏了才得不偿失,就算低价新股也别去乱申购![抓狂]","text":"这下了解到乐享是什么样的一种企业了……经营上市场份额难以寻觅,技术上可能更没啥含金量,这二者替未来铺垫的前景,真是缺乏想像空间,财务上的包装,大家也都懂得。再看那一张张脸谱,我超级讨厌网红脸……以为港股更真诚一点,可现而今眼目下的状态跟癌股里的创业板有啥区别呢?[抓狂]不赚没关系,亏了才得不偿失,就算低价新股也别去乱申购![抓狂]","html":"这下了解到乐享是什么样的一种企业了……经营上市场份额难以寻觅,技术上可能更没啥含金量,这二者替未来铺垫的前景,真是缺乏想像空间,财务上的包装,大家也都懂得。再看那一张张脸谱,我超级讨厌网红脸……以为港股更真诚一点,可现而今眼目下的状态跟癌股里的创业板有啥区别呢?[抓狂]不赚没关系,亏了才得不偿失,就算低价新股也别去乱申购![抓狂]"}],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976570026,"gmtCreate":1599792654365,"gmtModify":1703819734123,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463706409850422","authorIdStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>又一只过度高估的股票,严重偏离企业价值!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>又一只过度高估的股票,严重偏离企业价值!","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$又一只过度高估的股票,严重偏离企业价值!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99c6d790495dbfc26cc445f9b3070794","width":"1079","height":"1291"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":27,"commentSize":59,"repostSize":31,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976570026","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5685,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559015382745391","authorId":"3559015382745391","name":"杰夫ONE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/078dfb87cea89e83b597bf6aec02550a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559015382745391","authorIdStr":"3559015382745391"},"content":"企业价值应该多少,怎么算的你告诉我。","text":"企业价值应该多少,怎么算的你告诉我。","html":"企业价值应该多少,怎么算的你告诉我。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":942716896,"gmtCreate":1596210781315,"gmtModify":1704211829110,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463706409850422","authorIdStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"title":"柯达公司估值","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">$柯达(KODK)$</a>对柯达公司未来估值的计算:8亿贷款 * 0.4(原料药及医药企业资产营收转化值75分位值) = 3.2亿营收/年3.2 * 0.2(原料药企业利润率均值) = 6400万 - 2400万(贷款优惠后的利率) = 4000万(年利润) 0.4亿 * 5(美股原料药企业市盈率均值) = 2亿(贷款部分增加收益对应市值) + 1亿(柯达原有市值) = 3亿市值,对应股价:8美金/股但是,8美金是非常理想的值!是按照目前中美原料药最大的企业(也就是最高效率)的参数评估,但柯达目前只是拿到了贷款协议,存在是否可以正常投产、投产周期、生产效率、团队建设和转换等诸多不确定的风险,而且以大家的认知,1亿美金也就是8亿人民的企业的雇员,你们觉得具备创业和创立医药业务的能力么?但即使是很理想的状态,也就是企业充分发展后,股价估值也肯定小于等于 8美金,如果按照风险系数测算 则股价最终为:8*0.5 = 4美金。另外,因为股市的波动,刚刚暴涨之后触底会低于正常估值,触底价格预计为2-4美金之间,最终股价稳定后会在 4-8美金之间。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">$柯达(KODK)$</a>对柯达公司未来估值的计算:8亿贷款 * 0.4(原料药及医药企业资产营收转化值75分位值) = 3.2亿营收/年3.2 * 0.2(原料药企业利润率均值) = 6400万 - 2400万(贷款优惠后的利率) = 4000万(年利润) 0.4亿 * 5(美股原料药企业市盈率均值) = 2亿(贷款部分增加收益对应市值) + 1亿(柯达原有市值) = 3亿市值,对应股价:8美金/股但是,8美金是非常理想的值!是按照目前中美原料药最大的企业(也就是最高效率)的参数评估,但柯达目前只是拿到了贷款协议,存在是否可以正常投产、投产周期、生产效率、团队建设和转换等诸多不确定的风险,而且以大家的认知,1亿美金也就是8亿人民的企业的雇员,你们觉得具备创业和创立医药业务的能力么?但即使是很理想的状态,也就是企业充分发展后,股价估值也肯定小于等于 8美金,如果按照风险系数测算 则股价最终为:8*0.5 = 4美金。另外,因为股市的波动,刚刚暴涨之后触底会低于正常估值,触底价格预计为2-4美金之间,最终股价稳定后会在 4-8美金之间。","text":"$柯达(KODK)$对柯达公司未来估值的计算:8亿贷款 * 0.4(原料药及医药企业资产营收转化值75分位值) = 3.2亿营收/年3.2 * 0.2(原料药企业利润率均值) = 6400万 - 2400万(贷款优惠后的利率) = 4000万(年利润) 0.4亿 * 5(美股原料药企业市盈率均值) = 2亿(贷款部分增加收益对应市值) + 1亿(柯达原有市值) = 3亿市值,对应股价:8美金/股但是,8美金是非常理想的值!是按照目前中美原料药最大的企业(也就是最高效率)的参数评估,但柯达目前只是拿到了贷款协议,存在是否可以正常投产、投产周期、生产效率、团队建设和转换等诸多不确定的风险,而且以大家的认知,1亿美金也就是8亿人民的企业的雇员,你们觉得具备创业和创立医药业务的能力么?但即使是很理想的状态,也就是企业充分发展后,股价估值也肯定小于等于 8美金,如果按照风险系数测算 则股价最终为:8*0.5 = 4美金。另外,因为股市的波动,刚刚暴涨之后触底会低于正常估值,触底价格预计为2-4美金之间,最终股价稳定后会在 4-8美金之间。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":41,"commentSize":29,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/942716896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15993,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3439778424152374","authorId":"3439778424152374","name":"hedgefund888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c46c16b05f197541a984dabe4e820b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3439778424152374","authorIdStr":"3439778424152374"},"content":"不错,你空没","text":"不错,你空没","html":"不错,你空没"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":973802712,"gmtCreate":1598495992936,"gmtModify":1704219144170,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463706409850422","authorIdStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>这种涨法和技术面,2周内必回调30%!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>这种涨法和技术面,2周内必回调30%!","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$这种涨法和技术面,2周内必回调30%!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":45,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/973802712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3492670886328492","authorId":"3492670886328492","name":"niubikele","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd736aeb5a5b7663de30873c38e87758","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3492670886328492","authorIdStr":"3492670886328492"},"content":"特斯拉,做空我的人,从太平洋排到大西洋了","text":"特斯拉,做空我的人,从太平洋排到大西洋了","html":"特斯拉,做空我的人,从太平洋排到大西洋了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":154144299,"gmtCreate":1625492579811,"gmtModify":1625493781436,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463706409850422","authorIdStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股将在下半年迎来股灾级回调!<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","listText":"美股将在下半年迎来股灾级回调!<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","text":"美股将在下半年迎来股灾级回调!$道琼斯(.DJI)$$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$标普500(.SPX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":26,"commentSize":31,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154144299","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21073,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3551283870649340","authorId":"3551283870649340","name":"Amy1224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3551283870649340","authorIdStr":"3551283870649340"},"content":"又来了。。。","text":"又来了。。。","html":"又来了。。。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":974900663,"gmtCreate":1600879538052,"gmtModify":1703822850964,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463706409850422","authorIdStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"title":"特斯拉禁止员工谈论韭菜?吃韭菜?","htmlText":"特斯拉禁止员工说”韭菜“吃“韭菜”?高层回应:黑出了新高度。不知道从何时起,网络上开始盛传“特斯拉禁止员工说韭菜”或者“特斯拉禁止员工吃韭菜”的传闻,特斯拉全球副总裁陶琳也对此事件进行了辟谣,并声称“我们食堂有韭菜馅饺子”,简直被黑出了新高度。据分析特斯拉禁止员工说“韭菜”一词,可能是指的是特斯拉股价一直处于严重泡沫并愈演愈烈,如果泡沫碎了无疑是割了广大投资者的韭菜。另外还有一种说法,之所以特斯拉禁止员工说“韭菜”一词,源自特斯拉电动车价格大幅波动伤害了很多消费者,因此被很多老车主痛骂特斯拉“割韭菜”,特斯拉大中华区负责人朱晓彤对此颇为介意,并进行了辟谣解释。特斯拉CEO马斯克在电池日表示,现有创新将支持特斯拉以2.5万美元成本生产出电动车,希望每年能生产2000万辆。特斯拉目前最低价档Model 3在美国的起售价约3.8万美元,并且计划在未来几年内下降35%,以完成电动汽车在价格方面彻底革了传统汽车的命。如果以上目标可以实现,这显然对于早购买特斯拉电动车的车主未必公平,但是随着电动车产业的发展确实可以做到成本越来越低,降价也是不可避免的趋势。另外,也加之特斯拉的股价一直处于严重泡沫愈演愈烈的状态,泡沫必然会破掉,一旦哪天真正发现我们已经身处破灭的泡沫中,无疑很多投资者也成了被禁止谈论的“韭菜”。从“特斯拉禁止员工说韭菜吃韭菜”的传闻事件来看,目前确实已激起了不少的矛盾。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">$比亚迪(002594)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>","listText":"特斯拉禁止员工说”韭菜“吃“韭菜”?高层回应:黑出了新高度。不知道从何时起,网络上开始盛传“特斯拉禁止员工说韭菜”或者“特斯拉禁止员工吃韭菜”的传闻,特斯拉全球副总裁陶琳也对此事件进行了辟谣,并声称“我们食堂有韭菜馅饺子”,简直被黑出了新高度。据分析特斯拉禁止员工说“韭菜”一词,可能是指的是特斯拉股价一直处于严重泡沫并愈演愈烈,如果泡沫碎了无疑是割了广大投资者的韭菜。另外还有一种说法,之所以特斯拉禁止员工说“韭菜”一词,源自特斯拉电动车价格大幅波动伤害了很多消费者,因此被很多老车主痛骂特斯拉“割韭菜”,特斯拉大中华区负责人朱晓彤对此颇为介意,并进行了辟谣解释。特斯拉CEO马斯克在电池日表示,现有创新将支持特斯拉以2.5万美元成本生产出电动车,希望每年能生产2000万辆。特斯拉目前最低价档Model 3在美国的起售价约3.8万美元,并且计划在未来几年内下降35%,以完成电动汽车在价格方面彻底革了传统汽车的命。如果以上目标可以实现,这显然对于早购买特斯拉电动车的车主未必公平,但是随着电动车产业的发展确实可以做到成本越来越低,降价也是不可避免的趋势。另外,也加之特斯拉的股价一直处于严重泡沫愈演愈烈的状态,泡沫必然会破掉,一旦哪天真正发现我们已经身处破灭的泡沫中,无疑很多投资者也成了被禁止谈论的“韭菜”。从“特斯拉禁止员工说韭菜吃韭菜”的传闻事件来看,目前确实已激起了不少的矛盾。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">$比亚迪(002594)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>","text":"特斯拉禁止员工说”韭菜“吃“韭菜”?高层回应:黑出了新高度。不知道从何时起,网络上开始盛传“特斯拉禁止员工说韭菜”或者“特斯拉禁止员工吃韭菜”的传闻,特斯拉全球副总裁陶琳也对此事件进行了辟谣,并声称“我们食堂有韭菜馅饺子”,简直被黑出了新高度。据分析特斯拉禁止员工说“韭菜”一词,可能是指的是特斯拉股价一直处于严重泡沫并愈演愈烈,如果泡沫碎了无疑是割了广大投资者的韭菜。另外还有一种说法,之所以特斯拉禁止员工说“韭菜”一词,源自特斯拉电动车价格大幅波动伤害了很多消费者,因此被很多老车主痛骂特斯拉“割韭菜”,特斯拉大中华区负责人朱晓彤对此颇为介意,并进行了辟谣解释。特斯拉CEO马斯克在电池日表示,现有创新将支持特斯拉以2.5万美元成本生产出电动车,希望每年能生产2000万辆。特斯拉目前最低价档Model 3在美国的起售价约3.8万美元,并且计划在未来几年内下降35%,以完成电动汽车在价格方面彻底革了传统汽车的命。如果以上目标可以实现,这显然对于早购买特斯拉电动车的车主未必公平,但是随着电动车产业的发展确实可以做到成本越来越低,降价也是不可避免的趋势。另外,也加之特斯拉的股价一直处于严重泡沫愈演愈烈的状态,泡沫必然会破掉,一旦哪天真正发现我们已经身处破灭的泡沫中,无疑很多投资者也成了被禁止谈论的“韭菜”。从“特斯拉禁止员工说韭菜吃韭菜”的传闻事件来看,目前确实已激起了不少的矛盾。$特斯拉(TSLA)$$比亚迪(002594)$$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$$蔚来(NIO)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9d1855c65f960820c213d4003426935","width":"1024","height":"576"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9847293342d47c573105868078dd6d3c","width":"640","height":"480"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7883f5892c220cf65adaf5a8b3c6b8da","width":"440","height":"500"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":30,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/974900663","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3520626608704075","authorId":"3520626608704075","name":"纳兰长空","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5e453ba5ac4ef8f5c2aebd2a0b97ee8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3520626608704075","authorIdStr":"3520626608704075"},"content":"真的假的啊","text":"真的假的啊","html":"真的假的啊"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":978600412,"gmtCreate":1599202560736,"gmtModify":1704221987259,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463706409850422","authorIdStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"title":"关于美股大跌原因分析","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>一、特朗普与美国大选不稳定因素。索罗斯曾多次说过,特朗普及美国大选是美股的一大威胁。果然,这个威胁现在来了。他呼吁支持者投两次票,一次邮寄和一次亲自投票。他还表示,每次像福克斯新闻这种机构控制民调发布时,股市就会下跌。最近特朗普的民调有所回升。但从目前的情况来看,美国大选之后可能少不了一番争夺,并且存在双方都不承认失败的可能性。二、中美冲突加剧风险。据中青报消息,蓬佩奥再度大放厥词:3个月内要关停美境内的全部孔子学院、几周内将对华为采取进一步行动。他同时还声称,美国眼下面临的是一个有14亿人口、GDP年增速约为6%的国家的经济挑战,要与中国打“经济冷战”。三、美国劳工部就业数据。另据道琼斯(Dow Jones)接受调查的经济学家预计,美国经济8月份将增加132.1万个工作岗位。近期公布的数据显示,美国经济恢复的速度超过预期。而在此之前,市场一直期待国会将会推出新的经济刺激法案。但超预期的经济数据将减轻国会达成协议的压力,股市却对此的预期已有透支。四、新冠疫苗预期受打压。在美国顶级传染病专家福奇打破了人们对新冠肺炎疫苗即将推出的希望。福奇告诉CNN,疫苗不太可能在10月底准备好。在接受CNN的《今日》节目采访时,福奇说,疫苗很可能在今年年底研制出来。美国疾病控制和预防中心(","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>一、特朗普与美国大选不稳定因素。索罗斯曾多次说过,特朗普及美国大选是美股的一大威胁。果然,这个威胁现在来了。他呼吁支持者投两次票,一次邮寄和一次亲自投票。他还表示,每次像福克斯新闻这种机构控制民调发布时,股市就会下跌。最近特朗普的民调有所回升。但从目前的情况来看,美国大选之后可能少不了一番争夺,并且存在双方都不承认失败的可能性。二、中美冲突加剧风险。据中青报消息,蓬佩奥再度大放厥词:3个月内要关停美境内的全部孔子学院、几周内将对华为采取进一步行动。他同时还声称,美国眼下面临的是一个有14亿人口、GDP年增速约为6%的国家的经济挑战,要与中国打“经济冷战”。三、美国劳工部就业数据。另据道琼斯(Dow Jones)接受调查的经济学家预计,美国经济8月份将增加132.1万个工作岗位。近期公布的数据显示,美国经济恢复的速度超过预期。而在此之前,市场一直期待国会将会推出新的经济刺激法案。但超预期的经济数据将减轻国会达成协议的压力,股市却对此的预期已有透支。四、新冠疫苗预期受打压。在美国顶级传染病专家福奇打破了人们对新冠肺炎疫苗即将推出的希望。福奇告诉CNN,疫苗不太可能在10月底准备好。在接受CNN的《今日》节目采访时,福奇说,疫苗很可能在今年年底研制出来。美国疾病控制和预防中心(","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$$跟谁学(GSX)$$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$$蔚来(NIO)$一、特朗普与美国大选不稳定因素。索罗斯曾多次说过,特朗普及美国大选是美股的一大威胁。果然,这个威胁现在来了。他呼吁支持者投两次票,一次邮寄和一次亲自投票。他还表示,每次像福克斯新闻这种机构控制民调发布时,股市就会下跌。最近特朗普的民调有所回升。但从目前的情况来看,美国大选之后可能少不了一番争夺,并且存在双方都不承认失败的可能性。二、中美冲突加剧风险。据中青报消息,蓬佩奥再度大放厥词:3个月内要关停美境内的全部孔子学院、几周内将对华为采取进一步行动。他同时还声称,美国眼下面临的是一个有14亿人口、GDP年增速约为6%的国家的经济挑战,要与中国打“经济冷战”。三、美国劳工部就业数据。另据道琼斯(Dow Jones)接受调查的经济学家预计,美国经济8月份将增加132.1万个工作岗位。近期公布的数据显示,美国经济恢复的速度超过预期。而在此之前,市场一直期待国会将会推出新的经济刺激法案。但超预期的经济数据将减轻国会达成协议的压力,股市却对此的预期已有透支。四、新冠疫苗预期受打压。在美国顶级传染病专家福奇打破了人们对新冠肺炎疫苗即将推出的希望。福奇告诉CNN,疫苗不太可能在10月底准备好。在接受CNN的《今日》节目采访时,福奇说,疫苗很可能在今年年底研制出来。美国疾病控制和预防中心(","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f918be64a64975aa6a67be66dccca16","width":"1602","height":"800"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517ddff0b3ab9591a70edaf157582a84","width":"1280","height":"670"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/488ba87136aef220fc6c3893d861f9e3","width":"600","height":"327"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978600412","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3465370247547325","authorId":"3465370247547325","name":"ddwgej","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3465370247547325","authorIdStr":"3465370247547325"},"content":"这种文章有什么意思,昨天晚上以前发布才有意义","text":"这种文章有什么意思,昨天晚上以前发布才有意义","html":"这种文章有什么意思,昨天晚上以前发布才有意义"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976342694,"gmtCreate":1599616104018,"gmtModify":1703819050705,"author":{"id":"3463706409850422","authorId":"3463706409850422","name":"科技猿人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247851a4d561760c3cf0ee2d7374b473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463706409850422","authorIdStr":"3463706409850422"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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