史法拉的个人主页 - 老虎社区

史法拉

史法拉

能不亏钱就好，何必想那么多

IP属地：上海

248关注

78粉丝

9主题

0勋章

2020-12-09

$伦敦证券交易所(LSE.UK)$张磊的长期主义果然不是说说而已，持仓3年，太帅了。

07-30

$黄金主连 2412(GCmain)$

07-22

$TSLA 20240802 250.0 CALL$ 看空波动率，短时间认为涨得过高了，隐波会下调

07-22

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@OptionS:我的期权常年交易标的【2024版】

07-11

美股第一百笔交易

07-11

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

期权女巫 | 特斯拉连涨，华尔街多空分歧！应用两种期权策略有何效果？

07-02

$AAPL 垂直价差 240712 200.0C/230.0C$

05-14

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 直接双卖期权，做空波动率比较靠谱

05-14

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 做空波动率比较靠谱

05-08

$平安香港高息股(03070)$ 长期投资价值

05-03

$南方沙特(02830)$ 看好沙特

04-25

感觉木头姐的又开始乱赌了。她的基金就是波动大

04-25

$TMV 20240426 44.0 CALL$

04-24

$KEEP(03650)$ 消费降级，被某兆韦德骗了10年卡。还是家里keep实惠点，**丝健身。

04-19

$富时越南30指数主连 2404(FVNmain)$

03-09

$NVDA 20240315 800.0 PUT$ 一点不慌

02-16

$KEEP(03650)$ 终于有收获了

02-14

$KEEP(03650)$ 买点试试水，相信健康产业

01-06

每天进步一点点

01-04

$YANG 20240119 14.0 PUT$

2023-11-01

怎么跌了呢

瑞幸咖啡：第三季度净收入72亿元，净利润9.88亿元

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LSE.UK\">$伦敦证券交易所(LSE.UK)$</a>张磊的长期主义果然不是说说而已，持仓3年，太帅了。","text":"$伦敦证券交易所(LSE.UK)$张磊的长期主义果然不是说说而已，持仓3年，太帅了。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1a399fd6471efbcc91f2d79e28bb67c","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":2,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/392468117","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3513164438250815","authorId":"3513164438250815","name":"股市战神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b608e1c79d7e441c31df0245c0cec7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3513164438250815","idStr":"3513164438250815"},"content":"持仓三年如何有这种成本","text":"持仓三年如何有这种成本","html":"持仓三年如何有这种成本"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332904973262992,"gmtCreate":1722301609053,"gmtModify":1722301609854,"author":{"id":"3458059713625664","authorId":"3458059713625664","name":"史法拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c3a2bec5c9c90832e72c88863665e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458059713625664","idStr":"3458059713625664"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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看空波动率，短时间认为涨得过高了，隐波会下调","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20240802 250.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20240802 250.0 CALL$ </a> 看空波动率，短时间认为涨得过高了，隐波会下调","text":"$TSLA 20240802 250.0 CALL$ 看空波动率，短时间认为涨得过高了，隐波会下调","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330266541240376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330266232000552,"gmtCreate":1721661843749,"gmtModify":1721661845603,"author":{"id":"3458059713625664","authorId":"3458059713625664","name":"史法拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c3a2bec5c9c90832e72c88863665e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458059713625664","idStr":"3458059713625664"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330266232000552","repostId":"299092880539904","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":299092880539904,"gmtCreate":1714031536834,"gmtModify":1714149602167,"author":{"id":"3585800644196386","authorId":"3585800644196386","name":"OptionS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9047bf44c545bc9fb56d7d7795ee174b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585800644196386","idStr":"3585800644196386"},"themes":[],"title":"我的期权常年交易标的【2024版】","htmlText":"我常年持仓100行左右的期权持仓，有虎友问都是怎么来的，写篇文章介绍下我的期权标的池。 我的自选股分了5组：US、AI、BTC、中概、港股。 星级仅代表我个人综合体验：仓位轻重，信心指数，下单频度等。 一、US组 1、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$</a> / sqqq ☆☆☆☆☆ 常年 大盘指数，会不断新高，时不时回撤30-50%，帮我精选世界优秀公司，是我第二大收益标的。 常年sell put。 有时会用sell call sqqq替代sell put qqq增强收益，但要控制仓位，留的安全阈值要高于sell put。 2、uvxy ☆☆☆☆ 常年 长期不断衰减，缺点是时不时会暴涨小几倍，适合VIX 20多高位的时候sell call，是我第六大收益标的。 常年sell call。 3、tsla ☆☆ 以前eps好估的时候很适合sell put，是我第四大收益标的。 24年eps非常不稳定，现在比较难操作。 Tips： 我重度依赖老虎个股财务界面forward eps/forward pe来选择合适的行权价。 二、AI组 1、nvda ☆☆☆ 24年内会持续sell put，小心翼翼盯着eps情况。 2、tsm ☆☆☆☆ 常年 卡位非常舒适，常年sell put。 AI组自选还有amd，美光mu，arm等，但都是偏短期操作，等现有期权过期了，就不追加仓位了。 主要还是基本面不够熟，受制于能力圈。 三、BTC组 1、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a> ☆☆☆ 现在涨到200多，停了一段时间sell put了，如果能回归100多，会继续sell put。 还是forward eps的透明度问题，不","listText":"我常年持仓100行左右的期权持仓，有虎友问都是怎么来的，写篇文章介绍下我的期权标的池。 我的自选股分了5组：US、AI、BTC、中概、港股。 星级仅代表我个人综合体验：仓位轻重，信心指数，下单频度等。 一、US组 1、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$</a> / sqqq ☆☆☆☆☆ 常年 大盘指数，会不断新高，时不时回撤30-50%，帮我精选世界优秀公司，是我第二大收益标的。 常年sell put。 有时会用sell call sqqq替代sell put qqq增强收益，但要控制仓位，留的安全阈值要高于sell put。 2、uvxy ☆☆☆☆ 常年 长期不断衰减，缺点是时不时会暴涨小几倍，适合VIX 20多高位的时候sell call，是我第六大收益标的。 常年sell call。 3、tsla ☆☆ 以前eps好估的时候很适合sell put，是我第四大收益标的。 24年eps非常不稳定，现在比较难操作。 Tips： 我重度依赖老虎个股财务界面forward eps/forward pe来选择合适的行权价。 二、AI组 1、nvda ☆☆☆ 24年内会持续sell put，小心翼翼盯着eps情况。 2、tsm ☆☆☆☆ 常年 卡位非常舒适，常年sell put。 AI组自选还有amd，美光mu，arm等，但都是偏短期操作，等现有期权过期了，就不追加仓位了。 主要还是基本面不够熟，受制于能力圈。 三、BTC组 1、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a> ☆☆☆ 现在涨到200多，停了一段时间sell put了，如果能回归100多，会继续sell put。 还是forward eps的透明度问题，不","text":"我常年持仓100行左右的期权持仓，有虎友问都是怎么来的，写篇文章介绍下我的期权标的池。 我的自选股分了5组：US、AI、BTC、中概、港股。 星级仅代表我个人综合体验：仓位轻重，信心指数，下单频度等。 一、US组 1、 $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ / sqqq ☆☆☆☆☆ 常年 大盘指数，会不断新高，时不时回撤30-50%，帮我精选世界优秀公司，是我第二大收益标的。 常年sell put。 有时会用sell call sqqq替代sell put qqq增强收益，但要控制仓位，留的安全阈值要高于sell put。 2、uvxy ☆☆☆☆ 常年 长期不断衰减，缺点是时不时会暴涨小几倍，适合VIX 20多高位的时候sell call，是我第六大收益标的。 常年sell call。 3、tsla ☆☆ 以前eps好估的时候很适合sell put，是我第四大收益标的。 24年eps非常不稳定，现在比较难操作。 Tips： 我重度依赖老虎个股财务界面forward eps/forward pe来选择合适的行权价。 二、AI组 1、nvda ☆☆☆ 24年内会持续sell put，小心翼翼盯着eps情况。 2、tsm ☆☆☆☆ 常年 卡位非常舒适，常年sell put。 AI组自选还有amd，美光mu，arm等，但都是偏短期操作，等现有期权过期了，就不追加仓位了。 主要还是基本面不够熟，受制于能力圈。 三、BTC组 1、 $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ ☆☆☆ 现在涨到200多，停了一段时间sell put了，如果能回归100多，会继续sell put。 还是forward eps的透明度问题，不","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299092880539904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326462792372512,"gmtCreate":1720704457751,"gmtModify":1720704461860,"author":{"id":"3458059713625664","authorId":"3458059713625664","name":"史法拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c3a2bec5c9c90832e72c88863665e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458059713625664","idStr":"3458059713625664"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股第一百笔交易","listText":"美股第一百笔交易","text":"美股第一百笔交易","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e01d13296f2407579408910290f5aea6","width":"1080","height":"1371"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326462792372512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326387368931544,"gmtCreate":1720686008369,"gmtModify":1720686010221,"author":{"id":"3458059713625664","authorId":"3458059713625664","name":"史法拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c3a2bec5c9c90832e72c88863665e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458059713625664","idStr":"3458059713625664"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326387368931544","repostId":"1103165978","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1103165978","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1720681253,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103165978?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-11 15:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | 特斯拉连涨，华尔街多空分歧！应用两种期权策略有何效果？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103165978","media":"期权女巫","summary":"7月2日，特斯拉公布的第二季度汽车交付量好于预期。但对于特斯拉未来走势，华尔街分歧巨大，他们对特斯拉的最高目标价和最低目标价之间相差约200美元。如果特斯拉的价格在到期日跌破 252.5美元，两只看跌期权均处于价内，就会出现这种情况。如果特斯拉跌破该水平，交易者的义务是以 272.5美元的价格购买特斯拉股票，同时有权以 252.5美元的价格卖出。策略总结：对特斯拉持看跌立场，预计到期时股价将低于 250 美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> （Tesla）近来股价表现强势，连涨11日，截至周三美股收市，股价报263.26美元，近1个月涨幅足达51%，收复年内股价失地。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb549e75894fe1b56799d470b6dd3d6c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>近期消息：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>特斯拉在德国、荷兰及西班牙等欧洲市场的Model 3，上调约1,500欧元，相当于1.27万港元。依照欧盟公布的信息，Tesla由上海运至欧洲的进口车辆须征收20.8%额外关税。</p></li><li><p>有「债王」之称的Bill Gross就示警指，Tesla股价走势如「迷因股」，公司基本面持续疲弱，股价却飙升，属散户之间的投机行为。</p></li><li><p>高盛分析师Mark Delaney 周三将特斯拉股票的目标股价从175美元上调至248美元，并保持了持有评级。</p></li><li><p>7月2日，特斯拉公布的第二季度汽车交付量好于预期。交付44.3万辆，高于市场预期，虽同比下降 4.8%，但下降幅度并不大，此前华尔街预计交付量下降超过 15%。</p></li></ul><p>上周，特斯拉发布了强劲的交付数据，其股价随之飙升，以至于股价涨幅几乎是其跨式期权(Straddle)成本的两倍。</p><p>但对于特斯拉未来走势，华尔街分歧巨大，他们对特斯拉的最高目标价和最低目标价之间相差约200美元。</p><p>分歧之下，特斯拉隐含波动率会否下降，以下以特斯拉为例，从波动性收缩中获益角度，分析两种期权策略：</p><h2 id=\"id_3214363492\">1、看涨策略—空头看跌期权垂直价差</h2><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20240719 252.5 PUT BUY 1 | TSLA 20240719 272.5 PUT SELL 1\" title=\"$TSLA 跨價 240719 252.5P/272.5P$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TSLA 跨價 240719 252.5P/272.5P$ </a>‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/37d3ed35ed25cfafae6be9dfa9fa458f\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"696\"/></p><p>上图为特斯拉空头看跌期权垂直价差的交易参数设置示例，涉及出售一个看跌期权，同时买入另一个具有相同到期日和较低行权价的看跌期权。以下为详细的设置：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖出开仓：1 份看跌期权，行权价为 272.5 美元，到期日为 2024 年 7 月 19 日</p></li><li><p>买入开仓：1 个看跌期权，行权价为 252.5美元，到期日为 2024 年 7 月 19 日</p></li></ul><p>此策略产生权利金价差为 965 美元。</p><p><strong>收益影响：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>最大损失：1035 美元。如果特斯拉的价格在到期日跌破 252.5美元，两只看跌期权均处于价内，就会出现这种情况。损失是行权价差额（20美元）减去收到的权利金差额（每股 9.65 美元）。</p></li><li><p>最大利润：965 美元。如果特斯拉在到期时处于272.5美元之上，则可以实现最大利润。</p></li><li><p>盈亏平衡点：262.85 美元，即较高的行权价减去每股权利金（272.5 美元 - 9.65 美元）。</p></li></ul><p><strong>策略总结：</strong>对特斯拉的看涨立场意味着，预计该股不会出现大幅下跌，且可能持平或增值。通过利用这种信用价差，交易者可以利用收到的权利金，从而为股价小幅下跌提供缓冲。如果特斯拉跌破该水平，交易者的义务是以 272.5美元的价格购买特斯拉股票，同时有权以 252.5美元的价格卖出。只要特斯拉在到期时保持在252.5 美元以上，收到的净价差就会使交易者获益。</p><h2 id=\"id_1297635223\">2、看跌策略—空头看涨期权垂直价差</h2><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20240719 250.0 CALL SELL 1 | TSLA 20240719 270.0 CALL BUY 1\" title=\"$TSLA 跨價 240719 250.0C/270.0C$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TSLA 跨價 240719 250.0C/270.0C$  </a>‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6bd27f44ebc4e0dac85382631b07546c\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"702\"/></p><p>上图为特斯拉空头看涨期权垂直价差的交易参数设置示例。以下为详细的设置：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖出开仓：1 个看涨期权，行权价为 250 美元，到期日为 2024 年 7 月 19日</p></li><li><p>买入开仓：1 个看涨期权，行权价为 270 美元，到期日为 2024 年 7 月 19 日</p></li></ul><p>此策略产生权利金价差为 1085 美元。</p><p><strong>收益影响：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>最大损失：行权价差（20 美元）减去收到的权利金（每股 10.85 美元），乘以 100（每份合约 100 股），即 915美元。</p></li><li><p>最大利润：收到的权利金价差，即 1085 美元。如果到期时特斯拉低于较低的行权价250美元时，实现最大利润。</p></li><li><p>盈亏平衡点：您的交易盈亏平衡点是空头看涨期权的行权价加上收到的权利金，即 250美元 + 10.85 美元 = 260.85 美元。</p></li></ul><p><strong>策略总结：</strong>对特斯拉持看跌立场，预计到期时股价将低于 250 美元。只要特斯拉股价未来不升至盈亏平衡点之上，交易者就可以从时间衰减和隐含波动率下降中受益。积极管理头寸至关重要，特别是当股价开始上涨时。</p><p><em>请注意，交易者应该在自己的风险管理框架和独特的市场动态背景下考虑以上策略，不应简单复制。</em></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权女巫 | 特斯拉连涨，华尔街多空分歧！应用两种期权策略有何效果？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | 特斯拉连涨，华尔街多空分歧！应用两种期权策略有何效果？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-11 15:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> （Tesla）近来股价表现强势，连涨11日，截至周三美股收市，股价报263.26美元，近1个月涨幅足达51%，收复年内股价失地。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb549e75894fe1b56799d470b6dd3d6c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>近期消息：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>特斯拉在德国、荷兰及西班牙等欧洲市场的Model 3，上调约1,500欧元，相当于1.27万港元。依照欧盟公布的信息，Tesla由上海运至欧洲的进口车辆须征收20.8%额外关税。</p></li><li><p>有「债王」之称的Bill Gross就示警指，Tesla股价走势如「迷因股」，公司基本面持续疲弱，股价却飙升，属散户之间的投机行为。</p></li><li><p>高盛分析师Mark Delaney 周三将特斯拉股票的目标股价从175美元上调至248美元，并保持了持有评级。</p></li><li><p>7月2日，特斯拉公布的第二季度汽车交付量好于预期。交付44.3万辆，高于市场预期，虽同比下降 4.8%，但下降幅度并不大，此前华尔街预计交付量下降超过 15%。</p></li></ul><p>上周，特斯拉发布了强劲的交付数据，其股价随之飙升，以至于股价涨幅几乎是其跨式期权(Straddle)成本的两倍。</p><p>但对于特斯拉未来走势，华尔街分歧巨大，他们对特斯拉的最高目标价和最低目标价之间相差约200美元。</p><p>分歧之下，特斯拉隐含波动率会否下降，以下以特斯拉为例，从波动性收缩中获益角度，分析两种期权策略：</p><h2 id=\"id_3214363492\">1、看涨策略—空头看跌期权垂直价差</h2><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20240719 252.5 PUT BUY 1 | TSLA 20240719 272.5 PUT SELL 1\" title=\"$TSLA 跨價 240719 252.5P/272.5P$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TSLA 跨價 240719 252.5P/272.5P$ </a>‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/37d3ed35ed25cfafae6be9dfa9fa458f\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"696\"/></p><p>上图为特斯拉空头看跌期权垂直价差的交易参数设置示例，涉及出售一个看跌期权，同时买入另一个具有相同到期日和较低行权价的看跌期权。以下为详细的设置：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖出开仓：1 份看跌期权，行权价为 272.5 美元，到期日为 2024 年 7 月 19 日</p></li><li><p>买入开仓：1 个看跌期权，行权价为 252.5美元，到期日为 2024 年 7 月 19 日</p></li></ul><p>此策略产生权利金价差为 965 美元。</p><p><strong>收益影响：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>最大损失：1035 美元。如果特斯拉的价格在到期日跌破 252.5美元，两只看跌期权均处于价内，就会出现这种情况。损失是行权价差额（20美元）减去收到的权利金差额（每股 9.65 美元）。</p></li><li><p>最大利润：965 美元。如果特斯拉在到期时处于272.5美元之上，则可以实现最大利润。</p></li><li><p>盈亏平衡点：262.85 美元，即较高的行权价减去每股权利金（272.5 美元 - 9.65 美元）。</p></li></ul><p><strong>策略总结：</strong>对特斯拉的看涨立场意味着，预计该股不会出现大幅下跌，且可能持平或增值。通过利用这种信用价差，交易者可以利用收到的权利金，从而为股价小幅下跌提供缓冲。如果特斯拉跌破该水平，交易者的义务是以 272.5美元的价格购买特斯拉股票，同时有权以 252.5美元的价格卖出。只要特斯拉在到期时保持在252.5 美元以上，收到的净价差就会使交易者获益。</p><h2 id=\"id_1297635223\">2、看跌策略—空头看涨期权垂直价差</h2><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20240719 250.0 CALL SELL 1 | TSLA 20240719 270.0 CALL BUY 1\" title=\"$TSLA 跨價 240719 250.0C/270.0C$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TSLA 跨價 240719 250.0C/270.0C$  </a>‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6bd27f44ebc4e0dac85382631b07546c\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"702\"/></p><p>上图为特斯拉空头看涨期权垂直价差的交易参数设置示例。以下为详细的设置：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖出开仓：1 个看涨期权，行权价为 250 美元，到期日为 2024 年 7 月 19日</p></li><li><p>买入开仓：1 个看涨期权，行权价为 270 美元，到期日为 2024 年 7 月 19 日</p></li></ul><p>此策略产生权利金价差为 1085 美元。</p><p><strong>收益影响：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>最大损失：行权价差（20 美元）减去收到的权利金（每股 10.85 美元），乘以 100（每份合约 100 股），即 915美元。</p></li><li><p>最大利润：收到的权利金价差，即 1085 美元。如果到期时特斯拉低于较低的行权价250美元时，实现最大利润。</p></li><li><p>盈亏平衡点：您的交易盈亏平衡点是空头看涨期权的行权价加上收到的权利金，即 250美元 + 10.85 美元 = 260.85 美元。</p></li></ul><p><strong>策略总结：</strong>对特斯拉持看跌立场，预计到期时股价将低于 250 美元。只要特斯拉股价未来不升至盈亏平衡点之上，交易者就可以从时间衰减和隐含波动率下降中受益。积极管理头寸至关重要，特别是当股价开始上涨时。</p><p><em>请注意，交易者应该在自己的风险管理框架和独特的市场动态背景下考虑以上策略，不应简单复制。</em></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103165978","content_text":"特斯拉 （Tesla）近来股价表现强势，连涨11日，截至周三美股收市，股价报263.26美元，近1个月涨幅足达51%，收复年内股价失地。近期消息：特斯拉在德国、荷兰及西班牙等欧洲市场的Model 3，上调约1,500欧元，相当于1.27万港元。依照欧盟公布的信息，Tesla由上海运至欧洲的进口车辆须征收20.8%额外关税。有「债王」之称的Bill Gross就示警指，Tesla股价走势如「迷因股」，公司基本面持续疲弱，股价却飙升，属散户之间的投机行为。高盛分析师Mark Delaney 周三将特斯拉股票的目标股价从175美元上调至248美元，并保持了持有评级。7月2日，特斯拉公布的第二季度汽车交付量好于预期。交付44.3万辆，高于市场预期，虽同比下降 4.8%，但下降幅度并不大，此前华尔街预计交付量下降超过 15%。上周，特斯拉发布了强劲的交付数据，其股价随之飙升，以至于股价涨幅几乎是其跨式期权(Straddle)成本的两倍。但对于特斯拉未来走势，华尔街分歧巨大，他们对特斯拉的最高目标价和最低目标价之间相差约200美元。分歧之下，特斯拉隐含波动率会否下降，以下以特斯拉为例，从波动性收缩中获益角度，分析两种期权策略：1、看涨策略—空头看跌期权垂直价差‌$TSLA 跨價 240719 252.5P/272.5P$ ‌上图为特斯拉空头看跌期权垂直价差的交易参数设置示例，涉及出售一个看跌期权，同时买入另一个具有相同到期日和较低行权价的看跌期权。以下为详细的设置：卖出开仓：1 份看跌期权，行权价为 272.5 美元，到期日为 2024 年 7 月 19 日买入开仓：1 个看跌期权，行权价为 252.5美元，到期日为 2024 年 7 月 19 日此策略产生权利金价差为 965 美元。收益影响：最大损失：1035 美元。如果特斯拉的价格在到期日跌破 252.5美元，两只看跌期权均处于价内，就会出现这种情况。损失是行权价差额（20美元）减去收到的权利金差额（每股 9.65 美元）。最大利润：965 美元。如果特斯拉在到期时处于272.5美元之上，则可以实现最大利润。盈亏平衡点：262.85 美元，即较高的行权价减去每股权利金（272.5 美元 - 9.65 美元）。策略总结：对特斯拉的看涨立场意味着，预计该股不会出现大幅下跌，且可能持平或增值。通过利用这种信用价差，交易者可以利用收到的权利金，从而为股价小幅下跌提供缓冲。如果特斯拉跌破该水平，交易者的义务是以 272.5美元的价格购买特斯拉股票，同时有权以 252.5美元的价格卖出。只要特斯拉在到期时保持在252.5 美元以上，收到的净价差就会使交易者获益。2、看跌策略—空头看涨期权垂直价差$TSLA 跨價 240719 250.0C/270.0C$  ‌上图为特斯拉空头看涨期权垂直价差的交易参数设置示例。以下为详细的设置：卖出开仓：1 个看涨期权，行权价为 250 美元，到期日为 2024 年 7 月 19日买入开仓：1 个看涨期权，行权价为 270 美元，到期日为 2024 年 7 月 19 日此策略产生权利金价差为 1085 美元。收益影响：最大损失：行权价差（20 美元）减去收到的权利金（每股 10.85 美元），乘以 100（每份合约 100 股），即 915美元。最大利润：收到的权利金价差，即 1085 美元。如果到期时特斯拉低于较低的行权价250美元时，实现最大利润。盈亏平衡点：您的交易盈亏平衡点是空头看涨期权的行权价加上收到的权利金，即 250美元 + 10.85 美元 = 260.85 美元。策略总结：对特斯拉持看跌立场，预计到期时股价将低于 250 美元。只要特斯拉股价未来不升至盈亏平衡点之上，交易者就可以从时间衰减和隐含波动率下降中受益。积极管理头寸至关重要，特别是当股价开始上涨时。请注意，交易者应该在自己的风险管理框架和独特的市场动态背景下考虑以上策略，不应简单复制。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323303348392096,"gmtCreate":1719932891465,"gmtModify":1719932893349,"author":{"id":"3458059713625664","authorId":"3458059713625664","name":"史法拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c3a2bec5c9c90832e72c88863665e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458059713625664","idStr":"3458059713625664"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20240712 200.0 CALL BUY 1 | AAPL 20240712 230.0 CALL SELL 1\">$AAPL 垂直价差 240712 200.0C/230.0C$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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justify;\">报告期内，瑞幸咖啡依然保持着产品高频推新的能力，第三季度共推出12款现制饮品。其中与贵州茅台联名的“酱香拿铁”火爆出圈登上热搜，刷新了瑞幸咖啡单品记录，首日销量542万杯，单品销售额突破1亿元。丝绒拿铁系列在今年9月份也达成了上市以来销售超2亿杯的里程碑。在门店扩张方面瑞幸咖啡继续通过“自营+联营”的模式扩张市场，进一步向低线城市持续渗透，在今年6月瑞幸率先突破万店规模，打开了中国咖啡行业“万店俱乐部”的大门，至今仍一骑绝尘。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞幸咖啡董事长兼CEO郭谨一表示：“公司三季度表现依然强劲，收入再破纪录，门店渗透率进一步提升。我们将持续加大投入，关注客户价值、社会价值和伙伴价值，努力将瑞幸咖啡打造成为一个卓越的、世界级的百年咖啡品牌。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267f03b0cf1bbcee409c459e65ee258b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1653\" tg-height=\"759\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞幸咖啡：第三季度净收入72亿元，净利润9.88亿元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞幸咖啡：第三季度净收入72亿元，净利润9.88亿元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-11-01 19:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>11月1日，瑞幸咖啡公布2023年第三季度财报。财报显示，瑞幸咖啡第三季度总净收入为72.000亿元人民币，同比增长84.9%。2023年第三季度瑞幸咖啡在美国会计准则（GAAP）下营业利润为9.617亿元人民币，营业利润率为13.4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞幸咖啡门店扩张速度进一步加快，第三季度净新开门店2437家，截至第三季度末，门店总数达13273家，其中自营门店8807家，联营门店4466家，持续保持行业领先地位，预计年底门店规模将达到15000家。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">营收层面，瑞幸咖啡第三季度自营门店收入为51.410亿元人民币，较2022年同期的28.671亿元人民币增长79.3%。联营门店收入第三季度为18.408亿元人民币，较2022年同期的8.991亿元人民币增长了104.7%。 盈利能力保持稳健增长态势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本季度财报数据中，最亮眼的是月均交易客户数。第三季度瑞幸咖啡新客户数超过3000万，月均交易客户数达到5848万，再创历史新高。截止三季度，瑞幸咖啡累计消费客户已超过2亿。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告期内，瑞幸咖啡依然保持着产品高频推新的能力，第三季度共推出12款现制饮品。其中与贵州茅台联名的“酱香拿铁”火爆出圈登上热搜，刷新了瑞幸咖啡单品记录，首日销量542万杯，单品销售额突破1亿元。丝绒拿铁系列在今年9月份也达成了上市以来销售超2亿杯的里程碑。在门店扩张方面瑞幸咖啡继续通过“自营+联营”的模式扩张市场，进一步向低线城市持续渗透，在今年6月瑞幸率先突破万店规模，打开了中国咖啡行业“万店俱乐部”的大门，至今仍一骑绝尘。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞幸咖啡董事长兼CEO郭谨一表示：“公司三季度表现依然强劲，收入再破纪录，门店渗透率进一步提升。我们将持续加大投入，关注客户价值、社会价值和伙伴价值，努力将瑞幸咖啡打造成为一个卓越的、世界级的百年咖啡品牌。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267f03b0cf1bbcee409c459e65ee258b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1653\" tg-height=\"759\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d12f820102df1859c1d25e4011ee104","relate_stocks":{"LKNCY":"瑞幸咖啡"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124976205","content_text":"11月1日，瑞幸咖啡公布2023年第三季度财报。财报显示，瑞幸咖啡第三季度总净收入为72.000亿元人民币，同比增长84.9%。2023年第三季度瑞幸咖啡在美国会计准则（GAAP）下营业利润为9.617亿元人民币，营业利润率为13.4%。瑞幸咖啡门店扩张速度进一步加快，第三季度净新开门店2437家，截至第三季度末，门店总数达13273家，其中自营门店8807家，联营门店4466家，持续保持行业领先地位，预计年底门店规模将达到15000家。营收层面，瑞幸咖啡第三季度自营门店收入为51.410亿元人民币，较2022年同期的28.671亿元人民币增长79.3%。联营门店收入第三季度为18.408亿元人民币，较2022年同期的8.991亿元人民币增长了104.7%。 盈利能力保持稳健增长态势。本季度财报数据中，最亮眼的是月均交易客户数。第三季度瑞幸咖啡新客户数超过3000万，月均交易客户数达到5848万，再创历史新高。截止三季度，瑞幸咖啡累计消费客户已超过2亿。报告期内，瑞幸咖啡依然保持着产品高频推新的能力，第三季度共推出12款现制饮品。其中与贵州茅台联名的“酱香拿铁”火爆出圈登上热搜，刷新了瑞幸咖啡单品记录，首日销量542万杯，单品销售额突破1亿元。丝绒拿铁系列在今年9月份也达成了上市以来销售超2亿杯的里程碑。在门店扩张方面瑞幸咖啡继续通过“自营+联营”的模式扩张市场，进一步向低线城市持续渗透，在今年6月瑞幸率先突破万店规模，打开了中国咖啡行业“万店俱乐部”的大门，至今仍一骑绝尘。瑞幸咖啡董事长兼CEO郭谨一表示：“公司三季度表现依然强劲，收入再破纪录，门店渗透率进一步提升。我们将持续加大投入，关注客户价值、社会价值和伙伴价值，努力将瑞幸咖啡打造成为一个卓越的、世界级的百年咖啡品牌。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4132738013068240","authorId":"4132738013068240","name":"CaffreyAnran","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb096a63794db80e56ff5d9a77e72228","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4132738013068240","idStr":"4132738013068240"},"content":"因为有2亿的税啊，扣掉是个miss","text":"因为有2亿的税啊，扣掉是个miss","html":"因为有2亿的税啊，扣掉是个miss"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":977952697,"gmtCreate":1601415346019,"gmtModify":1703824246159,"author":{"id":"3458059713625664","authorId":"3458059713625664","name":"史法拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c3a2bec5c9c90832e72c88863665e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3458059713625664","authorIdStr":"3458059713625664"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>电车未来是个趋势，上班一个月才60元电费比起800元油费来说确实太经济实惠了。然后我把这组数据告诉一位中国农民后，他表示惊讶，他说他未来也要换一辆电车。这时我又向他推荐了特斯拉，结果他毫不犹豫得对我说，他要买就买蔚来，他要支持国产，不买洋鬼子的东西，他还拿出他碎了屏幕还在用的手机向我炫耀，你看我用得是华为[捂脸]。我旁敲侧击问了他下年收入，答曰：50万","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>电车未来是个趋势，上班一个月才60元电费比起800元油费来说确实太经济实惠了。然后我把这组数据告诉一位中国农民后，他表示惊讶，他说他未来也要换一辆电车。这时我又向他推荐了特斯拉，结果他毫不犹豫得对我说，他要买就买蔚来，他要支持国产，不买洋鬼子的东西，他还拿出他碎了屏幕还在用的手机向我炫耀，你看我用得是华为[捂脸]。我旁敲侧击问了他下年收入，答曰：50万","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$电车未来是个趋势，上班一个月才60元电费比起800元油费来说确实太经济实惠了。然后我把这组数据告诉一位中国农民后，他表示惊讶，他说他未来也要换一辆电车。这时我又向他推荐了特斯拉，结果他毫不犹豫得对我说，他要买就买蔚来，他要支持国产，不买洋鬼子的东西，他还拿出他碎了屏幕还在用的手机向我炫耀，你看我用得是华为[捂脸]。我旁敲侧击问了他下年收入，答曰：50万","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/577a43a1f99c6a330e923ef8f836d007","width":"1080","height":"780"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/977952697","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3551214274518501","authorId":"3551214274518501","name":"重入江湖","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3551214274518501","authorIdStr":"3551214274518501"},"content":"不光是国人，洋鬼子也押注造车新势力三宠，原因是只有国内汽车市场是正增长的。背靠世界最大市场最成熟产业链，和政府政策的大力支持，在中国市场获得成功相对容易。下面就看谁在自动驾驶和飞行汽车上发力了！","text":"不光是国人，洋鬼子也押注造车新势力三宠，原因是只有国内汽车市场是正增长的。背靠世界最大市场最成熟产业链，和政府政策的大力支持，在中国市场获得成功相对容易。下面就看谁在自动驾驶和飞行汽车上发力了！","html":"不光是国人，洋鬼子也押注造车新势力三宠，原因是只有国内汽车市场是正增长的。背靠世界最大市场最成熟产业链，和政府政策的大力支持，在中国市场获得成功相对容易。下面就看谁在自动驾驶和飞行汽车上发力了！"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":907927932,"gmtCreate":1561508353726,"gmtModify":1704702070788,"author":{"id":"3458059713625664","authorId":"3458059713625664","name":"史法拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c3a2bec5c9c90832e72c88863665e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3458059713625664","authorIdStr":"3458059713625664"},"themes":[],"title":"2019年黄金启示录","htmlText":"$HIGHLAND GOLD(HGM.UK)$ 让时间回到半年前的2018年底，当时在文章中对于黄金未来三年做了一个积极展望，大胆预测黄金逆袭的机会终于要来了，有望复制2009-2011年那波大牛市。当时的价格在1248，为什么敢如此大胆看好黄金后市呢？自信源自于对黄金长达十年的长期追踪观察，无论是基本面还是技术面都支持2019年将是黄金具有转折性意义的一年，其重要性堪比2009年的几乎单边400美金上涨和2013年的几乎单边500美金下跌，在黄金沉寂多年后将再次迎来活跃周期。文章发出后，行情很快验证了我的看法，在突破1240重要平台后黄金犹如脱缰的野马一去不回头，为命运多舛的2018年画上了一个圆满句号。 一般分析黄金周期最大的就是月线，很少从年线级别去思考，在去年10月的一篇文章中特意从年线角度做了细致剖析，节选其中的精华片段：在2008年之前黄金一直被主流媒体所忽视，那时的黄金走势也相对比较平稳，那场举世瞩目的金融危机打破了昔日的宁静，黄金开始走入大众视野，其波动性也变得活跃起来。年初黄金延续了2001年以来的涨势，一鼓作气历史性地突破了1000美元/盎司关口，就当大家期待黄金能继续空中加油的时候却突然哑火了，到十月份竟然跌倒了不可思议的677美元/盎司的低位，最大回调达到350美元，最终年线收了一根带长上下影线的十字星，这波大幅扫荡行情让无数人第一次领略了黄金的魅力。后面几年黄金不负众望，继续高举高打屡创新高，并最终于2011年9月创造了1920的历史最高价，之后几年进入回调周期，直到2016年黄金才开始有企稳回升的迹象，进入2018黄金开局不错，延续了2017年的涨势，可惜多次冲高均无功而返，最终大幅回落，历史总是惊人的相似，2018年黄金走势和2008年似乎冥冥之中有着惊人的相似，2018还剩下最后两个月黄金极有可能成功逆袭收复失地，年线收一根十字星，为来年的","listText":"$HIGHLAND GOLD(HGM.UK)$ 让时间回到半年前的2018年底，当时在文章中对于黄金未来三年做了一个积极展望，大胆预测黄金逆袭的机会终于要来了，有望复制2009-2011年那波大牛市。当时的价格在1248，为什么敢如此大胆看好黄金后市呢？自信源自于对黄金长达十年的长期追踪观察，无论是基本面还是技术面都支持2019年将是黄金具有转折性意义的一年，其重要性堪比2009年的几乎单边400美金上涨和2013年的几乎单边500美金下跌，在黄金沉寂多年后将再次迎来活跃周期。文章发出后，行情很快验证了我的看法，在突破1240重要平台后黄金犹如脱缰的野马一去不回头，为命运多舛的2018年画上了一个圆满句号。 一般分析黄金周期最大的就是月线，很少从年线级别去思考，在去年10月的一篇文章中特意从年线角度做了细致剖析，节选其中的精华片段：在2008年之前黄金一直被主流媒体所忽视，那时的黄金走势也相对比较平稳，那场举世瞩目的金融危机打破了昔日的宁静，黄金开始走入大众视野，其波动性也变得活跃起来。年初黄金延续了2001年以来的涨势，一鼓作气历史性地突破了1000美元/盎司关口，就当大家期待黄金能继续空中加油的时候却突然哑火了，到十月份竟然跌倒了不可思议的677美元/盎司的低位，最大回调达到350美元，最终年线收了一根带长上下影线的十字星，这波大幅扫荡行情让无数人第一次领略了黄金的魅力。后面几年黄金不负众望，继续高举高打屡创新高，并最终于2011年9月创造了1920的历史最高价，之后几年进入回调周期，直到2016年黄金才开始有企稳回升的迹象，进入2018黄金开局不错，延续了2017年的涨势，可惜多次冲高均无功而返，最终大幅回落，历史总是惊人的相似，2018年黄金走势和2008年似乎冥冥之中有着惊人的相似，2018还剩下最后两个月黄金极有可能成功逆袭收复失地，年线收一根十字星，为来年的","text":"$HIGHLAND GOLD(HGM.UK)$ 让时间回到半年前的2018年底，当时在文章中对于黄金未来三年做了一个积极展望，大胆预测黄金逆袭的机会终于要来了，有望复制2009-2011年那波大牛市。当时的价格在1248，为什么敢如此大胆看好黄金后市呢？自信源自于对黄金长达十年的长期追踪观察，无论是基本面还是技术面都支持2019年将是黄金具有转折性意义的一年，其重要性堪比2009年的几乎单边400美金上涨和2013年的几乎单边500美金下跌，在黄金沉寂多年后将再次迎来活跃周期。文章发出后，行情很快验证了我的看法，在突破1240重要平台后黄金犹如脱缰的野马一去不回头，为命运多舛的2018年画上了一个圆满句号。 一般分析黄金周期最大的就是月线，很少从年线级别去思考，在去年10月的一篇文章中特意从年线角度做了细致剖析，节选其中的精华片段：在2008年之前黄金一直被主流媒体所忽视，那时的黄金走势也相对比较平稳，那场举世瞩目的金融危机打破了昔日的宁静，黄金开始走入大众视野，其波动性也变得活跃起来。年初黄金延续了2001年以来的涨势，一鼓作气历史性地突破了1000美元/盎司关口，就当大家期待黄金能继续空中加油的时候却突然哑火了，到十月份竟然跌倒了不可思议的677美元/盎司的低位，最大回调达到350美元，最终年线收了一根带长上下影线的十字星，这波大幅扫荡行情让无数人第一次领略了黄金的魅力。后面几年黄金不负众望，继续高举高打屡创新高，并最终于2011年9月创造了1920的历史最高价，之后几年进入回调周期，直到2016年黄金才开始有企稳回升的迹象，进入2018黄金开局不错，延续了2017年的涨势，可惜多次冲高均无功而返，最终大幅回落，历史总是惊人的相似，2018年黄金走势和2008年似乎冥冥之中有着惊人的相似，2018还剩下最后两个月黄金极有可能成功逆袭收复失地，年线收一根十字星，为来年的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/907927932","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3458059713625664","authorId":"3458059713625664","name":"史法拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c3a2bec5c9c90832e72c88863665e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3458059713625664","authorIdStr":"3458059713625664"},"content":"转这篇文章的时候，我便买入 $HIGHLAND GOLD(HGM.UK)$ 这只英股，后来不断获得盈利。最后有消息称，沃伦巴菲特买入了 $巴里克黄金(GOLD)$ 。我只能说我很幸运比股神先一步入坑 [微笑]","text":"转这篇文章的时候，我便买入 $HIGHLAND GOLD(HGM.UK)$ 这只英股，后来不断获得盈利。最后有消息称，沃伦巴菲特买入了 $巴里克黄金(GOLD)$ 。我只能说我很幸运比股神先一步入坑 [微笑]","html":"转这篇文章的时候，我便买入 $HIGHLAND GOLD(HGM.UK)$ 这只英股，后来不断获得盈利。最后有消息称，沃伦巴菲特买入了 $巴里克黄金(GOLD)$ 。我只能说我很幸运比股神先一步入坑 [微笑]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300062961,"gmtCreate":1601914797853,"gmtModify":1703825405135,"author":{"id":"3458059713625664","authorId":"3458059713625664","name":"史法拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c3a2bec5c9c90832e72c88863665e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3458059713625664","authorIdStr":"3458059713625664"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"小日本🇯🇵 ，果然就像“夺冠”里面所说的打不死的小强。明明经济不行了，还在硬撑。如果真能给它顶过去了，说不定他会变得更牛逼🐮。&nbsp;置之死地而后生，古人诚不欺我[偷笑]。","listText":"小日本🇯🇵 ，果然就像“夺冠”里面所说的打不死的小强。明明经济不行了，还在硬撑。如果真能给它顶过去了，说不定他会变得更牛逼🐮。&nbsp;置之死地而后生，古人诚不欺我[偷笑]。","text":"小日本🇯🇵 ，果然就像“夺冠”里面所说的打不死的小强。明明经济不行了，还在硬撑。如果真能给它顶过去了，说不定他会变得更牛逼🐮。 置之死地而后生，古人诚不欺我[偷笑]。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e166193414f57431346d85d6f8a3da5","width":"1080","height":"2400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300062961","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3458059713625664","authorId":"3458059713625664","name":"史法拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c3a2bec5c9c90832e72c88863665e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3458059713625664","authorIdStr":"3458059713625664"},"content":"一直被问到一个问题，那就是“日本人到底富不富裕？” 富裕不富裕，看两个基本数字，一个是人均GDP，另一个是人均年收入。 日本的人均GDP是3万9000美元，劳动者平均年收入是439万日元（约28万元人民币）。从这两个数字上来看，日本人是富裕的。 但是，如果你遇到日本人，问他“富裕不富裕？”他一定会是使劲地摇头，为什么？因为还存在一个物价的问题，拿28万元，在高消费的日本。","text":"一直被问到一个问题，那就是“日本人到底富不富裕？” 富裕不富裕，看两个基本数字，一个是人均GDP，另一个是人均年收入。 日本的人均GDP是3万9000美元，劳动者平均年收入是439万日元（约28万元人民币）。从这两个数字上来看，日本人是富裕的。 但是，如果你遇到日本人，问他“富裕不富裕？”他一定会是使劲地摇头，为什么？因为还存在一个物价的问题，拿28万元，在高消费的日本。","html":"一直被问到一个问题，那就是“日本人到底富不富裕？” 富裕不富裕，看两个基本数字，一个是人均GDP，另一个是人均年收入。 日本的人均GDP是3万9000美元，劳动者平均年收入是439万日元（约28万元人民币）。从这两个数字上来看，日本人是富裕的。 但是，如果你遇到日本人，问他“富裕不富裕？”他一定会是使劲地摇头，为什么？因为还存在一个物价的问题，拿28万元，在高消费的日本。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":991473198,"gmtCreate":1565039137214,"gmtModify":1704708178236,"author":{"id":"3458059713625664","authorId":"3458059713625664","name":"史法拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c3a2bec5c9c90832e72c88863665e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3458059713625664","authorIdStr":"3458059713625664"},"themes":[],"title":"安纳尔公司的赚钱逻辑","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NLY\">$Annaly Capital Management(NLY)$</a>&nbsp;安纳尔利资本管理公司（Annaly Capital Management）（NYSE：NLY）遵循的则是现代版的“3-6-3规则”，该机构多年来一直为投资者提供稳定的回报。这是一家鲜为人知的美国“虚拟银行”，然而该银行具备的一些特征可能会吸引来自中国的投资者。&nbsp;安纳尔利是一家抵押房地产投资信托公司（简称mREIT），拥有170名员工，资产超过1200亿美元。与常规房地产投资信托公司不同，mREIT不投资实际房地产; 这类公司投资于长期抵押担保证券，通常以短期利率借入资金，其收益来自证券收益率与借入资金利率的利差，因此如果收益率曲线陡峭，mREIT则收益，反之则受损。&nbsp;一般而言，安纳尔利可能会以2.5%左右的利率吸收资金，并以5%左右的利率贷出。&nbsp;虚拟银行所赚取的便是其中的差价，即他们赚取的是贷款5%和借款2.5%之间的利率差值。&nbsp;通过使用五倍的杠杆（雷曼兄弟公司的杠杆更是高达30倍），虚拟银行可以将这2.5%的回报扩大到12.5%，在这之后他们将其中的12%以分红的方式回馈给投资者。&nbsp;2011年1月，安纳尔利以每股17.20美元的定价售出7500万股流通股，共融资12.9亿美元。安纳尔利资本管理公司表示，本次公开募股所得将用于购买抵押贷款担保证券，以充实公司的投资组合；其余部分将用于一般公司业务用途，包括偿还部分短期债务。&nbsp;数千个抵押债券打包出售高分红回馈给投资者安纳尔利还受到中国投资者的欢迎，中国投资者与美国方面达成了一份特殊的交易：美国的REIT持有者必须为REIT分红支付常规收入税，这一税率基于收入水平在30%上下浮动。不过基于美国和中国之间相关税收协定，对","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NLY\">$Annaly Capital Management(NLY)$</a>&nbsp;安纳尔利资本管理公司（Annaly Capital Management）（NYSE：NLY）遵循的则是现代版的“3-6-3规则”，该机构多年来一直为投资者提供稳定的回报。这是一家鲜为人知的美国“虚拟银行”，然而该银行具备的一些特征可能会吸引来自中国的投资者。&nbsp;安纳尔利是一家抵押房地产投资信托公司（简称mREIT），拥有170名员工，资产超过1200亿美元。与常规房地产投资信托公司不同，mREIT不投资实际房地产; 这类公司投资于长期抵押担保证券，通常以短期利率借入资金，其收益来自证券收益率与借入资金利率的利差，因此如果收益率曲线陡峭，mREIT则收益，反之则受损。&nbsp;一般而言，安纳尔利可能会以2.5%左右的利率吸收资金，并以5%左右的利率贷出。&nbsp;虚拟银行所赚取的便是其中的差价，即他们赚取的是贷款5%和借款2.5%之间的利率差值。&nbsp;通过使用五倍的杠杆（雷曼兄弟公司的杠杆更是高达30倍），虚拟银行可以将这2.5%的回报扩大到12.5%，在这之后他们将其中的12%以分红的方式回馈给投资者。&nbsp;2011年1月，安纳尔利以每股17.20美元的定价售出7500万股流通股，共融资12.9亿美元。安纳尔利资本管理公司表示，本次公开募股所得将用于购买抵押贷款担保证券，以充实公司的投资组合；其余部分将用于一般公司业务用途，包括偿还部分短期债务。&nbsp;数千个抵押债券打包出售高分红回馈给投资者安纳尔利还受到中国投资者的欢迎，中国投资者与美国方面达成了一份特殊的交易：美国的REIT持有者必须为REIT分红支付常规收入税，这一税率基于收入水平在30%上下浮动。不过基于美国和中国之间相关税收协定，对","text":"$Annaly Capital Management(NLY)$ 安纳尔利资本管理公司（Annaly Capital Management）（NYSE：NLY）遵循的则是现代版的“3-6-3规则”，该机构多年来一直为投资者提供稳定的回报。这是一家鲜为人知的美国“虚拟银行”，然而该银行具备的一些特征可能会吸引来自中国的投资者。 安纳尔利是一家抵押房地产投资信托公司（简称mREIT），拥有170名员工，资产超过1200亿美元。与常规房地产投资信托公司不同，mREIT不投资实际房地产; 这类公司投资于长期抵押担保证券，通常以短期利率借入资金，其收益来自证券收益率与借入资金利率的利差，因此如果收益率曲线陡峭，mREIT则收益，反之则受损。 一般而言，安纳尔利可能会以2.5%左右的利率吸收资金，并以5%左右的利率贷出。 虚拟银行所赚取的便是其中的差价，即他们赚取的是贷款5%和借款2.5%之间的利率差值。 通过使用五倍的杠杆（雷曼兄弟公司的杠杆更是高达30倍），虚拟银行可以将这2.5%的回报扩大到12.5%，在这之后他们将其中的12%以分红的方式回馈给投资者。 2011年1月，安纳尔利以每股17.20美元的定价售出7500万股流通股，共融资12.9亿美元。安纳尔利资本管理公司表示，本次公开募股所得将用于购买抵押贷款担保证券，以充实公司的投资组合；其余部分将用于一般公司业务用途，包括偿还部分短期债务。 数千个抵押债券打包出售高分红回馈给投资者安纳尔利还受到中国投资者的欢迎，中国投资者与美国方面达成了一份特殊的交易：美国的REIT持有者必须为REIT分红支付常规收入税，这一税率基于收入水平在30%上下浮动。不过基于美国和中国之间相关税收协定，对","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/991473198","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":301218519,"gmtCreate":1603544256231,"gmtModify":1703830205691,"author":{"id":"3458059713625664","authorId":"3458059713625664","name":"史法拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c3a2bec5c9c90832e72c88863665e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3458059713625664","authorIdStr":"3458059713625664"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n  在家绣才艺\n 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