17 Sep 2021: My Updated thoughts on Alibaba

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Hopehope赋予希望
2021-09-17

Alibaba is a company that everyone knows. We even know Charlie Munger did take a position in Alibaba. Is he still holding the shares? This is something that I do not know. Undoubtedly, Alibaba is a very big company, with many lines of businesses. Is Big still pretty now? We will leave my thoughts in response to this question towards the end of the article.

Alibaba share price chart (US)

Alibaba share price chart (US)

If readers remembered, I touched on Alibaba long ago saying that I will not touch Alibaba at current price level. This is not a case of the business problems though it may be on going into the next few years. Rather, one should note that Alibaba share price led the decline of other Chinese tech stocks a couple of months ahead of others. Alibaba's price decline begins way back in November 2020 whereas the rest of the Chinese equities continued to trek up to higher highs in February 2021. Well isnt it incredible? 

So when the rest of the Chinese equities fell, Alibaba joined in the party as well and continued to decline. The recent low made in August 2021 was around 152 USD whereas yesterday price was around 156 USD, which is around 3% higher than its August low. 

Alibaba share price chart

My thoughts on Zillow $Zillow(Z)$ $Zillow Class A(ZG)$ https://youtu.be/2o2pwS2BCmY


If Alibaba does not hold the line at around 152.6 USD, all will be worrying! Will it be worrying for other tech stocks? This I really do not know though people may continue to throw in their Chinese equities. However, will Alibaba stop the decline ahead of others? I dont think so given that the negative attention on it is unlikely to go away in near term. So rather than waiting for Alibaba to stop its price decline, I would rather put my money on the sideline or in selected stocks other than Alibaba.

What I am worried is that Alibaba may go another leg down to around 130 USD to 135 USD... Will this happen? There is the possibility. But it is not my current strategy to go shortselling such stocks. As always, what I want to clarify is that my article is not saying that Alibaba cannot gain in terms of price appreciation, rather I believe it will underperform other Chinese stocks when stocks are rebounding (should it happen).

As always, this should not be construed as any investment or trading advice.

Do subscribe and like my youtube channel if you like what you have been reading and watching https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAPWOEQKCpCWmzKkdo7v-iw


免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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评论（491）

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  • Piggys
    ·2021-09-19
    🌈☀️Happy weekend , enjoy our family day n relax.🏠💞Stay safe n healthy for our love one 💓❤️‍🔥💝.. 😎🥸🤩🥳😏…😛😝😜🤪🤨 Enjoy the day we have..🍭🍭🍭
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    • Hopehope赋予希望: 
      can subscribe to my YouTube channel at hopehope赋予希望 if you are keen. I have a number of stocks analysis and market analysis as well
      2021-09-19
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    • Piggys回复Hopehope赋予希望: 
      👍🍭
      2021-09-19
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  • Flyingturtle
    ·2021-09-20
    Alibaba's price decline in November 2020 is most likely due to investors' fear following Jack's seemingly provocative comments which might also be the Catalyst for recent crakcdowns.
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  • Desna10
    ·2021-09-20
    No need to worry... outsiders think chinese governement killing chinese businesses.... but truth is  not
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    • Hopehope赋予希望: 
      I have Chinese equities. haha u should watch my YouTube videos at hopehope赋予希望
      2021-09-20
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  • cutemiao
    ·2021-09-20
    Nice, thanks for sharing.
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  • siaoa84
    ·2021-09-20
    $EVERGRANDE(03333)$ could have a ripple effect to all market if  bailout dont happen
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    • Hopehope赋予希望: 
      don't fear about evergrande. nothing is going to happen
      2021-09-20
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  • croissant
    ·2021-09-20
    good reading. thanks.
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    • Hopehope赋予希望: 
      can subscribe to my YouTube channel for other stock analysis as well. I have covered kuaishou, Xiaomi, tiger brokers, square and Zillow so far
      2021-09-20
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  • 江滨公园
    ·2021-09-20
    Good article , Good sharing , Thanks👍
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    • Hopehope赋予希望: 
      我的YouTube频道也有很多分析。可以去看看还有订阅
      2021-09-20
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  • Kong123
    ·2021-09-19
    hold  on $293 usd but force to trim at $163... very painfull experience
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  • Ericdao
    ·2021-09-19
    Indeed, don't be hero to short now. As u mentioned, if there's a leg down, I will definitely pour in more money. Next week 2 weeks will be critical to determine
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  • ReneS
    ·2021-09-20
    👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👌👍👌👌👌👌👍👍👌👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👌👌👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👌👌👍👌👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
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  • Kong123
    ·2021-09-19
    i m vwry impress with Alibaba innovation.... but i hopeless for this stock short term.... do you know why ?
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  • SPOT_ON
    ·2021-09-19
    when everyone thought that the stock will keep going down... the reverse happens... 😃 😊
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  • 生肉麵加豬油渣
    ·2021-09-20
    I share the same thought albeit keep a minimal sum [笑哭]
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  • CYKuan
    ·2021-09-20
    high will always go higher
    $S&P500 ETF(SPY)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$
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  • KYHBKO
    ·2021-09-19
    I am hopeful of this stock but will hope to see reversal from the drop before taking up another position.
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  • 6f86f8f4
    ·2021-09-20
    Thanks for your article!
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  • SnailWalker
    ·2021-09-20
    there is 50/50 chance.
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  • Survival
    ·2021-09-20
    Alibaba 马云太狂自大了 中国不修理他修理谁！ 等他修炼后再说购买吧
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  • Tongdadd
    ·2021-09-20
    It will be a long winter but yes, the sun will come out eventually
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  • pandalinden
    ·2021-09-19
    not worth holding if price keep dipping.
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