17 Sep 2021: My Updated thoughts on Alibaba
Alibaba is a company that everyone knows. We even know Charlie Munger did take a position in Alibaba. Is he still holding the shares? This is something that I do not know. Undoubtedly, Alibaba is a very big company, with many lines of businesses. Is Big still pretty now? We will leave my thoughts in response to this question towards the end of the article.
If readers remembered, I touched on Alibaba long ago saying that I will not touch Alibaba at current price level. This is not a case of the business problems though it may be on going into the next few years. Rather, one should note that Alibaba share price led the decline of other Chinese tech stocks a couple of months ahead of others. Alibaba's price decline begins way back in November 2020 whereas the rest of the Chinese equities continued to trek up to higher highs in February 2021. Well isnt it incredible?
So when the rest of the Chinese equities fell, Alibaba joined in the party as well and continued to decline. The recent low made in August 2021 was around 152 USD whereas yesterday price was around 156 USD, which is around 3% higher than its August low.
My thoughts on Zillow $Zillow(Z)$ $Zillow Class A(ZG)$ https://youtu.be/2o2pwS2BCmY
If Alibaba does not hold the line at around 152.6 USD, all will be worrying! Will it be worrying for other tech stocks? This I really do not know though people may continue to throw in their Chinese equities. However, will Alibaba stop the decline ahead of others? I dont think so given that the negative attention on it is unlikely to go away in near term. So rather than waiting for Alibaba to stop its price decline, I would rather put my money on the sideline or in selected stocks other than Alibaba.
What I am worried is that Alibaba may go another leg down to around 130 USD to 135 USD... Will this happen? There is the possibility. But it is not my current strategy to go shortselling such stocks. As always, what I want to clarify is that my article is not saying that Alibaba cannot gain in terms of price appreciation, rather I believe it will underperform other Chinese stocks when stocks are rebounding (should it happen).
As always, this should not be construed as any investment or trading advice.
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