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$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$I hope this will garner more in depth analysis so that we all can all work together to understand the company better. Both side of the coin should be welcomed so we have a 360 view (wrinkled brain apes together strong!!).

I think the current overhang in these stock is the recent crackdown about China wanting to control money and data outflow, or shut down of the app in China due to the lack of brokage license, and a potential fine. Investors should take into account such possibilities when investing (which I believe it is already priced-in in the current market price). However, we should also note that these company do not only operate in China. They have a global footprint and is rapidly expanding globally too.

1. I do see actual footage of Chinese citizen getting denied of withdrawing their USD deposit in China bank because of the control of money flowing out. money flow is really important to China to control their exchange rate and inflation. There is chance that China will disallow the app in China to prevent money outflow. about 50% of tiger customers is not in China as well, so do account that when you are valuing the company. if only they release revenue by region that would been very helpful.

2. Regarding data, there is possibility that China will disallow data of Chinese citizen required by the different exchanges to be handed over, or even outright banning the app in China to prevent collection of the data entirely.

Any of this could result in the company losing the entire China market. The company might be able to sell off the China arm to a Chinese brokerage if that happens.

Another possibility is that they just need to ensure proper governance and security of such data. That's all and that is the end of the data issue.

3. The licence part is more concerning as people with power had already voiced out that this is illegal. Thus, the unknown is whether the issue can be resolved just by just getting a license (which is extremely hard I heard). I'm not sure if having a Hong Kong license is good enough.

These app had been playing in the gray area of the law in China and this gray area will probably turn black. Most countries requires these app to have a license and these company did obtain a license so why won't they need it in China.

4. The fine is probably unescapable.

I'm still bullish on these company though even though half of their business is in China.

So I think there are a few ways we can go about when valuing these company when deciding if we want to invest in it.

1. Value it assuming China market is gone, all the worse case scenario of 4 points above happened. Then treating any good news as bonus.

2. Value it by attaching a probability to each of the 4 points above as well as a cost to it.

For me I used method 1 as I think it is better my mental health as I already accounted for the worse so any good news will be happy news, and any bad news is expected.

What do you think?