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Shooperman
2021-10-09

Limited earning growth? Seriously? We’ve only seen the start of Apple Silicon, with many more following up next.

And how can you compare Apple to FB and Google if you are the one to say that they are only financially similar to 20% of Apple’s services business? What about the other 80%? Thatbig chunk does nothing to justify Apple havinga bigger PE?

Apple Stock Will Struggle From Here, Analyst Cautions. Here’s Why.

Trigger warning for Apple bulls: I’m about to address the case for caution on the stock. Bernstein a

Apple Stock Will Struggle From Here, Analyst Cautions. Here’s Why.

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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李苗苗
·2021-10-09
为什么要限制营收增长速度呢？请问有更详细的消息分享一下吗？看着不是很明白~
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PSG2010
·2021-10-11
These three companies are different in nature, so it's hard to compare
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东营天地人和
·2021-10-09
这三家公司本质上不同的，很难单方面的做出比较
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纯天然绿色学渣
·2021-10-09
苹果的PE主要还是依赖与他的销售方面
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Not least, Sacconaghi writes, bulls see potential for higher gross margins as services become a higher percentage of the company’s revenue mix, creating the potential for consistent double-digit per-share earnings growth.</p>\n<p>But Sacconaghi counters that he sees limited room for earnings growth in the September 2022 fiscal year given a likely pullback in growth across the product line. His current model projects revenue for FY 2022 declining slightly from the current year.</p>\n<p>In his view, the most likely source of further gains in Apple shares in the near term would have to come from further multiple expansion. He thinks that’s possible if the iPhone 13 cycle is stronger than expected, Apple sets an aggressive new goal on services revenue growth or begins offering its products as a service. (But he’s not betting on it.)</p>\n<p>Sacconaghi also asserts that Apple’s current valuation is “relatively full,” trading inline to higher than other tech megacaps, in particular&nbsp;Facebook&nbsp;(FB) and&nbsp;Alphabet&nbsp;(GOOGL), which as he notes have both better expected growth rates and higher margins.</p>\n<p>“Looked at another way, close to 100% of revenue from Alphabet and Facebook have financial characteristics of Apple’s attractive services business,” which is about 20% of the company’s overall revenue, but Apple trades at a similar multiple to Alphabet and a premium to Facebook.</p>\n<p>Sacconaghi thinks long-term Apple is likely to be a low-to-mid single digit grower. His view is that 70% of the revenue base – iPhone, Mac and iPad – are unlikely to show any long-term growth. He sees new products growth in the 15% range, and projects 15% growth for the services business, generating a blended long-term growth rate in the 4% to 5% range. 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Here’s Why.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 09:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-rally-caution-51633620422?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Trigger warning for Apple bulls: I’m about to address the case for caution on the stock.\nBernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi lays out the case in a research note on Thursday. He focus on the most basic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-rally-caution-51633620422?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-rally-caution-51633620422?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192810083","content_text":"Trigger warning for Apple bulls: I’m about to address the case for caution on the stock.\nBernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi lays out the case in a research note on Thursday. He focus on the most basic question for Apple (ticker:AAPL) shares: What can drive the stock higher from here?\nSacconaghi points out that Apple has re-rated over the last two years from a below-market multiple to one trading at a 24% premium to the market. Apple traded at a discount to the market from 2013 to 2019, he notes. Apple now trades at a forward P/E of 26 times, he writes, “elevated” relative to historic norms.\nThe analyst starts by reviewing the bull case for the stock. He notes that Apple fans say the company has a leverageable consumer brand that will allow Apple to both increase prices and enter new categories, like cars and artificial reality headsets.\nApple bulls see the installed base of 1.65 billion devices offering ample room to deliver new services, including advertising, and possibly even social media. Not least, Sacconaghi writes, bulls see potential for higher gross margins as services become a higher percentage of the company’s revenue mix, creating the potential for consistent double-digit per-share earnings growth.\nBut Sacconaghi counters that he sees limited room for earnings growth in the September 2022 fiscal year given a likely pullback in growth across the product line. His current model projects revenue for FY 2022 declining slightly from the current year.\nIn his view, the most likely source of further gains in Apple shares in the near term would have to come from further multiple expansion. He thinks that’s possible if the iPhone 13 cycle is stronger than expected, Apple sets an aggressive new goal on services revenue growth or begins offering its products as a service. (But he’s not betting on it.)\nSacconaghi also asserts that Apple’s current valuation is “relatively full,” trading inline to higher than other tech megacaps, in particular Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOGL), which as he notes have both better expected growth rates and higher margins.\n“Looked at another way, close to 100% of revenue from Alphabet and Facebook have financial characteristics of Apple’s attractive services business,” which is about 20% of the company’s overall revenue, but Apple trades at a similar multiple to Alphabet and a premium to Facebook.\nSacconaghi thinks long-term Apple is likely to be a low-to-mid single digit grower. His view is that 70% of the revenue base – iPhone, Mac and iPad – are unlikely to show any long-term growth. He sees new products growth in the 15% range, and projects 15% growth for the services business, generating a blended long-term growth rate in the 4% to 5% range. (Note that as recently as FY 2019, Apple reported a slight revenue decline.)\nConcludes Sacconaghi: Given Apple’s relatively high valuation and the probability that tha the company will struggle to grow in fiscal 2022, the current risk-reward on the stock is “neutral to slightly negative.”\nAmid a broad market rally, Apple shares rose 0.9%, to $143.29.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":768,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["AAPL","AONE.U","FB"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":289,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":6141518,"gmtCreate":1633762289970,"gmtModify":1633762289970,"authorId":3479274710327383,"author":{"id":3479274710327383,"authorId":3479274710327383,"name":"李苗苗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture41","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821201593,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"为什么要限制营收增长速度呢？请问有更详细的消息分享一下吗？看着不是很明白~","text":"为什么要限制营收增长速度呢？请问有更详细的消息分享一下吗？看着不是很明白~","html":"为什么要限制营收增长速度呢？请问有更详细的消息分享一下吗？看着不是很明白~","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":6163817,"gmtCreate":1633961981003,"gmtModify":1633961981003,"authorId":3479274775305388,"author":{"id":3479274775305388,"authorId":3479274775305388,"name":"PSG2010","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/541f6f2cb8479fb86a8d8ef23f482196","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821201593,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"These three companies are different in nature, so it's hard to compare","text":"These three companies are different in nature, so it's hard to compare","html":"These three companies are different in nature, so it's hard to compare","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":6142280,"gmtCreate":1633769267672,"gmtModify":1633769267672,"authorId":3479274789332061,"author":{"id":3479274789332061,"authorId":3479274789332061,"name":"东营天地人和","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture133","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821201593,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"这三家公司本质上不同的，很难单方面的做出比较","text":"这三家公司本质上不同的，很难单方面的做出比较","html":"这三家公司本质上不同的，很难单方面的做出比较","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":6142286,"gmtCreate":1633769349235,"gmtModify":1633769349235,"authorId":3479274703284436,"author":{"id":3479274703284436,"authorId":3479274703284436,"name":"纯天然绿色学渣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8a09590ddc19e43321f0f39cd70ace","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821201593,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"苹果的PE主要还是依赖与他的销售方面","text":"苹果的PE主要还是依赖与他的销售方面","html":"苹果的PE主要还是依赖与他的销售方面","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}

Apple Stock Will Struggle From Here, Analyst Cautions. Here’s Why.

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