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In yesteryear when the pandemic struck, global equity markets sold off at a pace that was rarely seen in financial markets history. Tech stocks sold off hard and so did cyclical equity segments. Almost 2 years on, it appears to be a very different macroenvironment as economies emerge from the Covid-19 carnage. 2021 was a year filled with optimism as market participants expected a global post pandemic recovery to drive a rebound in growth. In the midst of such positivity, market momentum for the bulk of the year was high flying but has hit some speed bumps along the way – equity markets treaded water in 3Q21 as a resurgence of the delta variant worldwide dulled the outlook for global growth. So how did global equity markets performed thus far? 

On a year to date basis, developed markets (“DMs”) have outperformed equities in Asia and emerging market (“EMs”). The weaker performance of the latter was due to; 1) continued regularly crackdowns in China 2) worries about the overall credit health of the Chinese Real Estate sector and 3) the lingering effects of the virus.

Chart 1: Global equity market performance year-to-date. Source: Bloomberg

At a sectorial level, technology related stocks are still registering chunky gains despite the narrative that cyclical and value is making a comeback due to the fact that the pandemic has given the impetus for us to move our day-to-day activities online.

Top 5 performing funds YTD

In today’s piece, we will provide our investors with a better understanding on why these funds have done well this year and what can investors expect moving into 2022.

What drove the $Blackrock World Energy Fund A2 USD(LU0122376428)$ performance?

As we shift into a post pandemic world, albeit slower than expected, energy funds have registered good returns. To give investors more context, the energy sector has started the year on the front foot. Oil prices skyrocketed to the highest level since 2014 and natural gas prices have recently spiked to $6/MMBtu compared to about $2.40 at the start of the year. What cause the rise in oil price was the supply demand imbalances – a roll out of vaccines boosted mobility and stoked energy demand yet supply remains tight with OPEC+ choosing to stick with a planned, modest hike of 400,000 barrels a day in spite of foreign pressures pushing for an increase in output. On the other hand, the rise in natural gas prices comes during a period of stronger weather driven demand.

Chart 2: oil prices have rallied ferociously following the dip in march 2020. Source: Bloomberg

Therefore, the Blackrock World Energy Fund A2 USD, which invests at least 70% of its assets in equity securities of companies whose predominant economic activity is in the exploration, production and distribution of energy globally, was able to capitalise on the increase in energy prices.

Our thoughts ahead: Moving ahead, we see a confluence of factors that could possibly cool energy prices; 1) the new variant that has surfaced might result in the global reopening taking two or three steps back, essentially taming demand and 2) an increase in output to match demand.

What drove the $LionGlobal Vietnam SGD(SG9999003495)$ performance?

Interestingly, Vietnam was the hottest stock market in Asia this year – the VN Index has surged 40.6% on a year to date basis (in SGD terms as at 3 December 2021). Its stellar performance was mainly fuelled by low interest rates and subdued property prices which attracted investors in droves, as there were few other investment alternatives available – till date, domestic investors makes up about 90% of the market turnover according to VinaCapital.

Chart 3: Vietnam outperforms Asian peers year-to-date. Source: Bloomberg

Another factor that propelled Vietnamese equities was market participants’ conviction that the export-oriented country has the ability to maintain its growth momentum after being one of the few in Asia to expand last year – backed by strong economic readings.

Chart 4: Manufacturing PMI activity jumped in April to the strongest level since December 2018. (Reading above 50 signifies expansionary and reading below 50 signifies contractionary) Source: Bloomberg

Chart 5: Exports remains largely robust in 2021. Source: Bloomberg

Our thoughts ahead: Moving ahead, we believe that Vietnam offers an enthralling growth story over the short, medium and long term, backed by its 1) good foundation – the country has achieved the highest growth among developing countries in Asia and other regions in recent years, 2) ongoing momentum – domestic consumption and external demand remains strong and 3) a promising potential ahead – Vietnam is well positioned to benefit from the global economic rebound as US-China trade tensions have spurred companies to diversify supply chains. Overall, we view Vietnam as an attractive investment opportunity and think that a near term driver for higher equity prices will be if foreign investors begin to reverse their net sales of the nation’s stocks.

What drove the $Legg Mason Royce - US Small Cap Opportunity A Acc SGD-H(IE00B7SZL793)$ performance?

US small caps have made a roaring comeback since the March 2020 trough – Russell 2000 index registered gains of more than 100% since the drawdown. To put things into perspective, small caps are generally more sensitive to changes compared to large caps in the domestic growth environment and are often correlated with inflation expectation.

Chart 6: Small cap equities have been on a tear since the pandemic sell-off (gauged by the Russell 2000 Index, rebased to 100) Source: Bloomberg

Given this nature of small cap equities, the Legg Mason US small cap opp A Acc SGD-H fund is poised to benefit in the current market conditions where inflation swaps on a forward 5 year basis are now at level not seen since early 2019.

Chart 7: Inflation expectations have been on the rise after plunging. Source: Bloomberg

Our thoughts ahead: In today’s macroenvironment where inflation remains more persistent than the narrative painted by the US Federal Reserve (“Feds”), we believe that any further increase in inflation expectations going ahead will likely drive this cyclical segment to play catch up and potentially outperform large caps in the months ahead.

Chart 8: smalls caps historically outperform large caps when inflation expectations rises. Source: Bloomberg

What drove the $FTIF - Franklin India A (acc) SGD(LU0536402901)$ fund performance?

India, which have been plagued with numerous challenges earlier on (lack of vaccine and high Covid-19 case count) has sprung back to life. What supported its equity performance were two factors. Firstly, concerns over regulatory uncertainties surrounding the Chinese equity market has caused investors to shift towards Indian equities for EM exposure. Secondly, India’s growth outlook has improved markedly on the pandemic front (more than 50% of its population is vaccinated with at least one dose) – such a development could lead to a gradual easing of movement restrictions, boosting consumption, which is traditionally a strong driver of India’s growth. Therefore, the Franklin Templeton India A SGD fund has stood to gain from this shift in macro backdrop as investors turn a tad more bullish than they were before, bidding up the prices of Indian equities.

Our thoughts ahead: While India has had a good run lately, it is also trading at extremely stretched valuations – p/e of 26x is higher than historical average. In essence, this makes Indian equities more susceptible to a correction upon any negative news.

What drove the $FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) USD(LU0109392836)$ performance?

The technology sector was the market’s favourite in 2020 as the disruptions brought about by the pandemic has accelerated structural changes that was already underway before the crisis hit. Since then, earnings growth expectations have been constantly revised upwards which saw market participants piling in wildly into the sector for impressive profits. 

Chart 9: Technology sector continues its charge yet again (Rebased to 100) Source: Bloomberg

In 2021, the sector was still loved even when valuations have become extremely stretched and rising inflationary pressures posed as a threat to long duration assets, more specifically, technology stocks. This is attributed to the fact that the sector is backed by compelling fundamental underpinnings and secular growth drivers. Hence, the Franklin Templeton technology fund which offers a growth-oriented and diversified approach to investing in the tech sector with names like Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com and Apple Inc as its top holdings, was able to deliver good returns for investors this year.

Our thoughts ahead: When we look at things rationally, 3Q21 earnings results have suggested that Big Tech can sustain much of its pandemic boost. Additionally, difficulties from supply chain bottlenecks and labour shortages will eventually ease. Lastly, long term secular growth trends such as e-commerce, internet of things (IOT) and cloud computing remain intact over the longer term. Tech sector is still worth a spot in your portfolio.

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Disclaimer: The information herein was obtained and derived from sources that we believe are reliable, but while reasonable care has been taken to ensure that stated facts are accurate and opinions are fair and reasonable, Tiger Brokers does not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. The information expressed herein is current and does not constitute an offer, recommendation or solicitation, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future stock performance.