$纳指100ETF(_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

等待鳄鱼
2024-12-15

$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$

纳指走到上涨三推楔形的顶部附近，谨慎些，

市场宽度，变窄，谨慎些

$标普500(.SPX)$ 在2025年1月31日--2/4日市场会完成40周的周期循环，这个周期也是从2022/10/13日底部的3.33年周期，这是一个基钦周期

市场在完成周期运动后要么选择以空间换时间的方式解决，要么选择以时间换空间的方式解决，前者是短期暴跌，后者是长期缓慢下跌

总而言之，无论市场以哪种方式进行修复，都不太建议做空美国的指数ETF，不要认为你很聪明，能轻易的找到最高点，做空美股指数是史上最难的交易

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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杭州叶荣添
·2024-12-18
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这个4年数据合并线是一种预测吗？
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- 等待鳄鱼:
  是的，历史数据的映射。有点像市场交易日历效应，季节效应
  2024-12-18
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等待鳄鱼
·03-06
只回过头再看一下，只能说，风险来临前都有明显的迹象，大部分人不是不相信，而是总会有一种侥幸心理，侥幸是大敌。

不过回调到目前的位置，风险释放的主阶段已差不多了，按三阶段分的话，第一阶段分歧，第二阶段快速主跌浪，第三阶段震荡修复。

随着美元、利率和石油走低（这些都是 Bessent 的具体目标），金融状况现在正在迅速放松，并领先风险资产几个月。随着这些趋势的持续，这应该预示着科技和加密货币将迎来一个良好的第二季度💪
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等待鳄鱼
·2024-12-15
SPX 历史 4 年数据合并线
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期权狙击
·2024-12-17
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是一种预测吗？","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":382823192109488,"commentId":"382823192109488","gmtCreate":1734498051704,"gmtModify":1734498055387,"authorId":3452820583323524,"author":{"id":3452820583323524,"idStr":"3452820583323524","authorId":3452820583323524,"name":"等待鳄鱼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f06691151687613c6467e9018fe327a0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":381854628815224,"objectIdStr":"381854628815224","type":1,"supId":382821812744344,"supIdStr":"382821812744344","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"是的，历史数据的映射。有点像市场交易日历效应，季节效应","text":"是的，历史数据的映射。有点像市场交易日历效应，季节效应","html":"是的，历史数据的映射。有点像市场交易日历效应，季节效应"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"hot","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":410604121858408,"commentId":"410604121858408","gmtCreate":1741273605833,"gmtModify":1741274254433,"authorId":3452820583323524,"author":{"id":3452820583323524,"idStr":"3452820583323524","authorId":3452820583323524,"name":"等待鳄鱼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f06691151687613c6467e9018fe327a0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":381854628815224,"objectIdStr":"381854628815224","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"只回过头再看一下，只能说，风险来临前都有明显的迹象，大部分人不是不相信，而是总会有一种侥幸心理，侥幸是大敌。\n不过回调到目前的位置，风险释放的主阶段已差不多了，按三阶段分的话，第一阶段分歧，第二阶段快速主跌浪，第三阶段震荡修复。\n随着美元、利率和石油走低（这些都是 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