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Natural gas markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the $3.50 level. This of course is a good sign but I think that what we are looking at is a scenario where there is a massive amount of resistance above, and I do think that the seasonality is starting to turn against natural gas.

Natural gas markets tried to rally during most of the trading session on Thursday but continues to struggle above the $3.50 level. Because of this, I think it’s only a matter time before market participants roll over again, as the $3.75 level has been so massive in its resistance. I think if we can break down below the 20 day EMA, pictured in green on the chart, then I think we will go looking to fill the gap underneath. Natural gas markets are oversupplied, but obviously we have seen a cold snap in the northeastern part of the United States that will drive up demand.

The $3.75 level above being broken to the upside is a very bullish sign, and I think would set up another fight at the $4.00 level, an area that I’m even more interested in trying to trade. I would be more than willing to short at that area, and therefore I think that this is a “sell only” type of market. The $3.00 level underneath is a massive floor at the moment, and I do think that it’s going to take a lot of momentum to break down through that level. If we do, that opens the door to the $2.75 level, possibly even the $2.50 level given enough time. All things being equal, I do believe that we will eventually see the sellers overwhelm.

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