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In recent years, China’s primary investment market has been undergoing an unprecedented transformation, characterized by a wave of “nationalization.” This shift is not only evident in the dominance of state-owned capital (LPs) in RMB funds but also in the significant challenges faced by foreign USD funds operating in China. This change is reshaping China’s venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) landscape, with broad implications for global investors.

RMB Funds: The Rise of State-Owned LPs

State-owned capital is increasingly taking the lead in China’s RMB fund market. According to data from a Chinese private equity research institution, from 2019 to 2023, state-owned institutions directly invested a staggering about RMB 6.4trillion. Of this amount, mergers and acquisitions accounted for more than half, with a total value of RMB 3.4 trillion, while new equity issuances amounted to RMB 1.56 trillion.

Beyond M&A and IPO activities, the state also directly invested RMB 1.59 trillion into 12,852 companies. Over the past five years, state-owned institutions have directly invested in approximately 12,900 enterprises, with the total direct investment reaching nearly RMB 1.59 trillion. When including indirect investments, state-owned entities have funded around 20,000 companies (after removing duplicates), with more than 98% of these companies still operational.

The sectors attracting the most state-owned capital include electronic information, healthcare, and advanced manufacturing, with investments in electronic information consistently accounting for over 30% of total investments. This trend underscores the state’s focus on strategic emerging industries, steering venture capitalists to prioritize these high-tech fields.

USD Funds: Retreat and Reassessment

In stark contrast to the flourishing RMB funds, USD funds are facing increasing difficulties in China. Since 2021, USD fundraising and investment activities in China have significantly declined. In 2023, the total fundraising by USD funds in China was only $2 billion, a nearly 40% decrease year-on-year, marking the lowest level in a decade.

The retreat of USD funds is driven by multiple factors. Firstly, the strained Sino-US relations have created a more complex regulatory environment for foreign investments, compounded by stricter capital controls. Secondly, the dominance of RMB funds and state-owned LPs means that many high-quality projects are secured early on, leaving fewer opportunities for USD funds. Additionally, the competitive advantages of domestic funds in resource integration and policy execution further diminish the market position of USD funds.

Future Outlook: The Balance of Policy and Market Forces

As state-owned LPs continue to strengthen their dominance in RMB funds, China’s venture capital market is entering a new phase. Venture capital firms must now align more closely with policy directions while maintaining flexibility and market responsiveness to navigate the increasingly complex investment landscape. This shift not only affects domestic investors but also prompts global investors to reassess their strategies in China.

Looking ahead, the “nationalization” of China’s primary market is likely to deepen, with significant implications for the global capital market. The rise of RMB funds and the retreat of USD funds reflect China’s unique position in the global economy and the impact of market regulation on capital flows. As this transformation progresses, global investors will need to closely monitor changes in China’s policy environment and the opportunities and challenges that arise.

This ongoing shift is not just a major adjustment in China’s venture capital market; it is also a microcosm of the broader changes in the global capital landscape. In the future, as state-owned capital continues to exert influence, the investment ecosystem in China’s primary market will likely become more complex and diversified.