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Drawings from AMY

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good afternoon, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. My name is Grant Morgan (PH), I’m here from New York City.

Earlier, you had acknowledged that it is a more difficult investment and business environment today than it was when you first started out.

股东：之前你说到，现在做投资比你们刚开始的那时候要难得多。

My question is, if you are starting out again today in your early 30s, what would you do differently or the same in today’s environment to replicate your success? In short, Mr. Buffett, how can I make $30 billion? (Laughter)

我想问，如果你们是从今天开始做投资，你们会做些什么去获得成功？简单而言，请问我要怎么做才能赚到300亿美元。

WARREN BUFFETT: Start young. (Laughter)

巴菲特：从年轻的时候开始（全场笑）。

Charlie’s always said that the big thing about it is we started building this little snowball on top of a very long hill. So we started at a very early age in rolling the snowball down.

查理常说，投资最重要的事情，就是在长长的雪坡上滚小雪球。所以，我们从很年轻的时候就开始滚这个雪球。（巴菲特大约是1950年代开始滚自己的雪球，那时大概二十来岁，手里拥有大约十万美金左右）

And, of course, the snowball — the nature of compound interest is it behaves like a snowball of sticky snow. And the trick is to have a very long hill, which means either starting very young or living very — to be very old.

复利，就像是雪球外面那层粘粘的雪。关键在于找到一个长长的雪坡，而且要么从很年轻的时候就开始，要么活得久。

The — you know, I would do it exactly the same way if I were doing it in the investment world. I mean, if I were getting out of school today and I had $10,000 to invest, I’d start with the As.

如果我从今天开始投资，从学校里出来手里只有1万美元，我会完全像我以前做的那样，从公司列表里A打头的公司开始看起，一家家看。

I would start going right through companies. And I probably would focus on smaller companies, because that would be working with smaller sums and there’s more chance that something is overlooked in that arena.

如果看公司，我会优先看市值小一点的公司，因为我的资金有限，而且很多基金往往不太关注小公司，就可能出现更多错误定价的机会。

And, as Charlie has said earlier, it won’t be like doing that in 1951 when you could leaf through and find all kinds of things that just leapt off the page at you. But that’s the only way to do it.

就像查理之前说的，现在不会像1951年那样随随便便翻一翻公司列表就能找到好机会，但这是发现好机会唯一的办法。

I mean, you have to buy businesses and you — or little pieces of businesses called stocks — and you have to buy them at attractive prices, and you have to buy into good businesses.

然后开始买公司，也就是买入股票，公司的一部分所有权。这时候还要在合适的价格买入，买入那些好公司。

And that advice will be the same a hundred years from now, in terms of investing. That’s what it’s all about.

这是永远不变的投资真谛。

And you can’t expect anybody else to do it for you. I mean, people will not tell — they will not tell you about wonderful little investments. There’s — it’s not the way the investment business is set up.

而且你没法假手于人，必须自己亲自动手，因为人家根本不可能告诉你哪里哪里有好的投资机会。从别人那里得到点子，这不是真正掌握投资的方法。

When I first visited GEICO in January of 1951, I went back to Columbia. And I — that rest of that year, I subsequently went down to Blythe and Company and, actually, to one other firm that was a leading — Geyer & Co. — that was a leading analyst in insurance.

当我第一次跟GEICO的人见面的时候是1951年，那一年接下来的时间里面，我跟各种投资公司打交道跟他们推荐GEICO这家公司，说这是一个很好的投资机会，他们鸟都不鸟我。

And, you know, I thought I’d discovered this wonderful thing and I’d see what these great investment houses that specialized in insurance stocks said. And they said I didn’t know what I was talking about. You know, they — it wasn’t of any interest to them.

然后他们说我啥都不懂，他们完全不感兴趣。

You’ve got to follow your own — you know, you’ve got to learn what you know and what you don’t know. Within the arena of what you know, you have to just — you have to pursue it very vigorously and act on it when you find it.

你要知道自己知道什么，不知道什么。在自己知道的领域内，要保持头脑清醒，遇到好的机会要毫不犹豫地主动出击。

And you can’t look around for people to agree with you. You can’t look around for people to even know what you’re talking about. You know, you have to think for yourself. And if you do, you’ll find things.

最后，你不能期待别人认可你，甚至不能期待别人理解你说的东西。你要自己想，如果你做到了这些，你就能找到好的机会。

Charlie?

查理？你有什么想说的吗。

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. The hard part of the process for most people is the first $100,000. If you have a standing start at zero, getting together $100,000 is a long struggle for most people.

查理：对于大多数人来说，最难的一步可能是赚到第一个十万美金。如果你身无分文，怎么赚到第一个十万美金是最难的。

And I would argue that the people who get there relatively quickly are helped if they’re passionate about being rational, very eager and opportunistic, and steadily underspend their income grossly. I think those three factors are very helpful.

然后，如果你能赚到十万美金，保持理性，保持对机会的渴望，谨慎地花自己的现金流。那么，我认为这些会对你有很大的帮助。

理念随笔

读什么书

俺自己的穷查理宝典（1）

俺自己的穷查理宝典（2）

投资随笔

简单的复利  

什么是好模式？什么又是好公司、好价格？  

在烂模式下的好公司？  

啥是好价格？  

选择自己的能力圈

所谓投资就是算出“自由现金流”

用买产业的心态去买公司

公司随笔

如何运营一个“免费”的动物园

麦当劳的另一面

伯克希尔的另一面

伯克希尔随笔

1994年伯克希尔年会：做简单的事情，也可以很出色

1994年伯克希尔年会：预测股价是自欺欺人的游戏

1994年伯克希尔年会：怎么看待买公司股票和收购公司

1994年伯克希尔年会：不太关心市场利率的走向

1994年伯克希尔年会：伯克希尔从不回购股票的原因

1994年伯克希尔年会：不喜欢用Sell Put的方式买股票

1994年伯克希尔年会：业务不增长的公司也可以给投资人带来丰厚回报

1995年伯克希尔年会：伯克希尔最看重承诺和信任

1995年伯克希尔年会：可口可乐不分红和回购是对股东最大的回报

1995年伯克希尔年会：在合作中疑人不用，用人不疑

1997年伯克希尔年会：风险不来自于市场，而是来自于公司

1999年伯克希尔年会：总有聪明人冒着不对称的风险去赚额外收益