Long term stock OXY shouldn't _老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Kennedy8
2023-08-19

Long term stock OXY shouldn't be valued in short term.

Occidental Petroleum: Warren Buffett Proves His Doubters Wrong Again

Occidental Petroleum Corporation stock bottomed out in June. Despite reporting weak second-quarter earnings, the stock didn't crash. As such, I assess that the worst is likely over.Berkshire Hathaway

Occidental Petroleum: Warren Buffett Proves His Doubters Wrong Again

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Kennedy8
·2023-10-12
长期投资的股票不应该在短期内估价。
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Despite reporting weak second-quarter earnings, the stock didn't crash. As such, I assess that the worst is likely over.Berkshire Hathaway ","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Occidental Petroleum Corporation stock bottomed out in June. Despite reporting weak second-quarter earnings, the stock didn't crash. As such, I assess that the worst is likely over.</li><li>Berkshire Hathaway holds a 25% stake in Occidental Petroleum, bolstering investors' confidence in maintaining long-term exposure in OXY.</li><li>Despite its relative premium, Occidental's robust execution added credence to Buffett's conviction about its high quality, justifying its premium valuation.</li><li>I make the case why doubting Buffett's foresight isn't wise. Occidental's operating performance should improve sequentially in Q3. Coupled with more robust buying sentiments, OXY looks ready to recover.</li><li>Comment and let me know whether you think my upgrade on Occidental Petroleum Corporation is timely.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img height=\"2000px\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"3000px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Chip Somodevilla</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Investors in leading integrated oil and gas company <strong>Occidental Petroleum Corporation</strong> (<span>NYSE:OXY</span>) didn't see its stock tumble, despite reporting a tepid second-quarter or FQ2 earnings release in early August.</p> <p>I have anticipated the bottoming of the energy sector (XLE<span>) since </span>June 2023<span>, urging energy investors to accumulate as underlying oil futures (</span>CL1:COM<span>, </span>CO1:COM<span>) were consolidating.</span></p> <p>I last held a Hold rating (Neutral/Market Perform) on OXY, considering its premium relative to its peers (according to S&amp;P Cap IQ data). Seeking Alpha Quant's \"F\" valuation grade corroborates my observation, suggesting that perhaps the \"Warren Buffett premium\" has been baked into investors' optimism.</p> <p>OXY has risen the ranks in Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A, BRK.B) public securities portfolio. According to the latest update, OXY accounts for a 4.1% stake, with Berkshire owning more than 25% of OXY's holdings. Therefore, the \"Warren Buffett put\" has worked remarkably well, as<span> Occidental investors look forward to a bottoming of its operating performance in the first half.</span></p> <p>Occidental management shared its view that it considers Occidental shares as undervalued. As such, it expects to continue its share repurchase program, as Occidental has completed 40% of its current year authorization in the first half. The relatively weak oil prices could hamper its preferred stock buyback from Berkshire. However, crude oil futures have recovered well, as they recently re-tested their April 2023 highs.</p> <p>Moving forward, investors need to assess whether they are convinced of an ongoing recovery in underlying oil prices, as it's fundamental toward further redemption of the preferreds. Outgoing CFO Rob Peterson stressed that the company's \"ability to redeem preferred equity might require higher WTI prices than indicated by the forward curve.\"</p> <p>My assessment suggests that crude oil prices have likely bottomed out between March and June. While the recent re-test could face near-term volatility given the recent broad market weakness, I don't anticipate the futures falling back toward the lows in the first half of 2023.</p> <p>As such, it makes sense to expect Occidental's operating performance to improve sequentially in the third quarter, coupled with its robust production growth. The company emphasizes capital-efficient growth, capitalizing on its advantaged assets in the Permian and DJ Basins. Moreover, assigning Peterson to OxyChem corroborates my conviction that the company's carbon capture business is expected to gain traction.</p> <p>As such, I'm confident that OXY's buyers should view any pullback as an opportunity to gain more long-term exposure in its shares, bolstered by the confidence of the Oracle of Omaha. With the global economy not expected to shuffle into a debilitating recession, buying sentiments are expected to remain constructive.</p> <p>Therefore, I believe it's appropriate to assess where the buying opportunities for OXY could lie, anticipating a further recovery in the underlying energy markets.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/8/18/51630113-16923484200882385.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>OXY price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Based on my analysis, I expect OXY to bottom out at the $60 level. Given my expectation of a bottoming of its operating performance in the first half, I don't expect OXY to revisit the March to June lows at the $55 level.</p> <p>I must highlight that OXY's strength and resilience have been remarkable, a testament to the confidence of Buffett. Going against the Oracle with a Sell/Bearish rating is not recommended, as he lifted his exposure in OXY.</p> <p>Given this week's mild pullback, I believe the opportunity to turn more constructive on Occidental Petroleum Corporation has arrived. Despite near-term volatility, I encourage buyers to use the pullback to gain more exposure into OXY, as it looks ready to stage a decisive breakout of its April 2023 highs.</p> <p><em>Rating: Upgraded to Buy. Please note that a Buy rating is equivalent to a Bullish or Market Outperform rating.</em></p> <p><em>Important note: Investors are reminded to do their due diligence and not rely on the information provided as financial advice. Please always apply independent thinking and note that the rating is not intended to time a specific entry/exit at the point of writing unless otherwise specified.</em></p> <h4>We Want To Hear From You</h4> <div></div> <p>Have constructive commentary to improve our thesis? Spotted a critical gap in our view? Saw something important that we didn't? Agree or disagree? 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Despite reporting weak second-quarter earnings, the stock didn't crash. As such, I assess that the worst is likely over.Berkshire Hathaway ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4629625-occidental-petroleum-warren-buffett-proves-his-doubters-wrong-again\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg","relate_stocks":{"IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0985489474.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-C SGD-H","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0878866978.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-QD SGD-H","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0433182093.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AS-C SGD","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","ORCL":"甲骨文","BK4176":"多领域控股","LU0068578508.USD":"First Eagle Amundi International Cl AU-C USD","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1506573853.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) INC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4538":"云计算","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","OXY":"西方石油","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF","LU1935042991.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4097":"系统软件","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4629625-occidental-petroleum-warren-buffett-proves-his-doubters-wrong-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2360841305","content_text":"Occidental Petroleum Corporation stock bottomed out in June. Despite reporting weak second-quarter earnings, the stock didn't crash. As such, I assess that the worst is likely over.Berkshire Hathaway holds a 25% stake in Occidental Petroleum, bolstering investors' confidence in maintaining long-term exposure in OXY.Despite its relative premium, Occidental's robust execution added credence to Buffett's conviction about its high quality, justifying its premium valuation.I make the case why doubting Buffett's foresight isn't wise. Occidental's operating performance should improve sequentially in Q3. Coupled with more robust buying sentiments, OXY looks ready to recover.Comment and let me know whether you think my upgrade on Occidental Petroleum Corporation is timely.Chip Somodevilla Investors in leading integrated oil and gas company Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) didn't see its stock tumble, despite reporting a tepid second-quarter or FQ2 earnings release in early August. I have anticipated the bottoming of the energy sector (XLE) since June 2023, urging energy investors to accumulate as underlying oil futures (CL1:COM, CO1:COM) were consolidating. I last held a Hold rating (Neutral/Market Perform) on OXY, considering its premium relative to its peers (according to S&P Cap IQ data). Seeking Alpha Quant's \"F\" valuation grade corroborates my observation, suggesting that perhaps the \"Warren Buffett premium\" has been baked into investors' optimism. OXY has risen the ranks in Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A, BRK.B) public securities portfolio. According to the latest update, OXY accounts for a 4.1% stake, with Berkshire owning more than 25% of OXY's holdings. Therefore, the \"Warren Buffett put\" has worked remarkably well, as Occidental investors look forward to a bottoming of its operating performance in the first half. Occidental management shared its view that it considers Occidental shares as undervalued. As such, it expects to continue its share repurchase program, as Occidental has completed 40% of its current year authorization in the first half. The relatively weak oil prices could hamper its preferred stock buyback from Berkshire. However, crude oil futures have recovered well, as they recently re-tested their April 2023 highs. Moving forward, investors need to assess whether they are convinced of an ongoing recovery in underlying oil prices, as it's fundamental toward further redemption of the preferreds. Outgoing CFO Rob Peterson stressed that the company's \"ability to redeem preferred equity might require higher WTI prices than indicated by the forward curve.\" My assessment suggests that crude oil prices have likely bottomed out between March and June. While the recent re-test could face near-term volatility given the recent broad market weakness, I don't anticipate the futures falling back toward the lows in the first half of 2023. As such, it makes sense to expect Occidental's operating performance to improve sequentially in the third quarter, coupled with its robust production growth. The company emphasizes capital-efficient growth, capitalizing on its advantaged assets in the Permian and DJ Basins. Moreover, assigning Peterson to OxyChem corroborates my conviction that the company's carbon capture business is expected to gain traction. As such, I'm confident that OXY's buyers should view any pullback as an opportunity to gain more long-term exposure in its shares, bolstered by the confidence of the Oracle of Omaha. With the global economy not expected to shuffle into a debilitating recession, buying sentiments are expected to remain constructive. Therefore, I believe it's appropriate to assess where the buying opportunities for OXY could lie, anticipating a further recovery in the underlying energy markets. OXY price chart (weekly) (TradingView) Based on my analysis, I expect OXY to bottom out at the $60 level. Given my expectation of a bottoming of its operating performance in the first half, I don't expect OXY to revisit the March to June lows at the $55 level. I must highlight that OXY's strength and resilience have been remarkable, a testament to the confidence of Buffett. Going against the Oracle with a Sell/Bearish rating is not recommended, as he lifted his exposure in OXY. Given this week's mild pullback, I believe the opportunity to turn more constructive on Occidental Petroleum Corporation has arrived. Despite near-term volatility, I encourage buyers to use the pullback to gain more exposure into OXY, as it looks ready to stage a decisive breakout of its April 2023 highs. Rating: Upgraded to Buy. Please note that a Buy rating is equivalent to a Bullish or Market Outperform rating. Important note: Investors are reminded to do their due diligence and not rely on the information provided as financial advice. Please always apply independent thinking and note that the rating is not intended to time a specific entry/exit at the point of writing unless otherwise specified. We Want To Hear From You  Have constructive commentary to improve our thesis? Spotted a critical gap in our view? Saw something important that we didn't? Agree or disagree? Comment below with the aim of helping everyone in the community to learn better!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":45,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":8076330,"commentId":"8076330","gmtCreate":1697058802890,"gmtModify":1697058806638,"authorId":3449466806849577,"author":{"id":3449466806849577,"idStr":"3449466806849577","authorId":3449466806849577,"name":"Kennedy8","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/8d24894de9386722b28396c146e12209","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/048415ce28efe522291a14d3d3db53be","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":210407218335960,"objectIdStr":"210407218335960","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"长期投资的股票不应该在短期内估价。","text":"长期投资的股票不应该在短期内估价。","html":"长期投资的股票不应该在短期内估价。","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}

Occidental Petroleum: Warren Buffett Proves His Doubters Wrong Again

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