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The $SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$MCB rights will start to trade on 2nd Jun 2021, 9 am and last trading day for the rights is on 10th Jun 2021. During this period, investors who do not want to subscribe for their pro-rata share of MCB are able to sell the rights in the open market. Just to recall, during the last MCB rights issue in 2020, the rights traded as low as 0.001 cents as there were no buyers for the rights.

Those investors who want to subscribe for the rights are able to do so between 2nd June 2021 and 16th June 2021.

Now, here comes the question. Should you subscribe for SIA MCB?

Let me paint 2 scenarios for you, assuming that you have subscribed for the MCB.

In the first scenario, we assume SIA recovers strongly from the Covid-19 impact in the coming years. SIA’s share price may continue to go up and possibly above the conversion price of 4.84. With higher profit and cashflow, SIA will also be looking at capital management initiatives and it is likely to redeem the MCBs as it is cheaper to do so since SIA can issue new equity at higher price. For investors holding the MCB, your returns will only be around 4% to 6% and you don’t get to enjoy the upside from SIA’s recovery.

In the second scenario, we assume that SIA continues to be badly affected by Covid-19. Profitability, cashflow and share price continues to drop. SIA will not be able to redeem the MCBs. The MCBs will eventually be force converted by SIA at 4.84 in 2030. As a holder of MCB, you may be holding to SIA shares “bought” at 4.84, when the share price of SIA at that time could be lower.

Based on the 2 scenarios, it looks like it is going to be a case of “Head – I win, Tail – You lose” situation for the holders of MCBs.

Personally, I would not touch this MCB with a ten-foot pole.

Trade with care and DYODD.