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- 最美赵露思最美赵露思
  ·10-28
  $谷歌(GOOG)$ 完犊子了，谷歌投哈哈姐。
  215 1
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- 最美赵露思最美赵露思
  ·09-26
  ‌$超微电脑(SMCI)$ ‌真是有病，把英伟达都带跌了，sbGONGSI
  197 评论
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- 最美赵露思最美赵露思
  ·09-03
  这标题都错了，胡说八道
  异动解读 | 英伟达盘中大涨5.62%
  英伟达公司今日盘中股价大跌5.62%,截至2024年9月3日16:52:14收于119.46美元。尽管英伟达公司本财季营收和利润均取得了大幅增长,但由于未来业绩指引低于市场预期,导致投资者出现担忧,纷纷抛售英伟达股票。不过,英伟达预计第三季度总营收为132.5亿美元,同比增长83%,这一数字虽然依然可观,但低于市场预期。英伟达表示,下一代AI芯片Blackwell可能会出现一些延迟,这也是导致第三季度业绩指引不佳的主要原因。
  异动解读 | 英伟达盘中大涨5.62%
  305 评论
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- 最美赵露思最美赵露思
  ·2022-06-28
  540？
  Tesla: The Steep Decline Is Just Getting Started?
  SummaryThis is a dedicated price action analysis on Tesla stock. Despite its recent bear trap, we no
  Tesla: The Steep Decline Is Just Getting Started?
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<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a> 完犊子了，谷歌投哈哈姐。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a> 完犊子了，谷歌投哈哈姐。","text":"$谷歌(GOOG)$ 完犊子了，谷歌投哈哈姐。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364926267506984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353585308659976,"gmtCreate":1727362737192,"gmtModify":1727406324774,"author":{"id":"4103607787878940","authorId":"4103607787878940","name":"最美赵露思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ceddba202c5f1271f160a358fc673b9b","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103607787878940","authorIdStr":"4103607787878940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$ &nbsp;</a>‌真是有病 ，把英伟达都带跌了 ，sbGONGSI","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$ &nbsp;</a>‌真是有病 ，把英伟达都带跌了 ，sbGONGSI","text":"‌$超微电脑(SMCI)$ ‌真是有病 ，把英伟达都带跌了 ，sbGONGSI","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353585308659976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345409751470392,"gmtCreate":1725370791793,"gmtModify":1725370919599,"author":{"id":"4103607787878940","authorId":"4103607787878940","name":"最美赵露思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ceddba202c5f1271f160a358fc673b9b","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103607787878940","authorIdStr":"4103607787878940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这标题都错了 ，胡说八道","listText":"这标题都错了 ，胡说八道","text":"这标题都错了 ，胡说八道","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345409751470392","repostId":"1191662792","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191662792","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1725370601,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191662792?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-09-03 21:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"异动解读 | 英伟达盘中大涨5.62%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191662792","media":"异动解读","summary":"英伟达公司今日盘中股价大跌5.62%,截至2024年9月3日16:52:14收于119.46美元。尽管英伟达公司本财季营收和利润均取得了大幅增长,但由于未来业绩指引低于市场预期,导致投资者出现担忧,纷纷抛售英伟达股票。不过,英伟达预计第三季度总营收为132.5亿美元,同比增长83%,这一数字虽然依然可观,但低于市场预期。英伟达表示,下一代AI芯片Blackwell可能会出现一些延迟,这也是导致第三季度业绩指引不佳的主要原因。","content":"<p>英伟达公司(NVDA)今日盘中股价大跌5.62%,截至2024年9月3日16:52:14收于119.46美元。尽管英伟达公司本财季营收和利润均取得了大幅增长,但由于未来业绩指引低于市场预期,导致投资者出现担忧,纷纷抛售英伟达股票。</p>\n\n<p>英伟达公司2025财年第二季度(2024年4月-6月)总营收同比大增122%至创纪录的130.08亿美元,净利润更是同比增长163%至66.7亿美元。这主要得益于AI芯片Hopper系列的需求强劲。不过,英伟达预计第三季度总营收为132.5亿美元,同比增长83%,这一数字虽然依然可观,但低于市场预期。</p>\n\n<p>英伟达表示,下一代AI芯片Blackwell可能会出现一些延迟,这也是导致第三季度业绩指引不佳的主要原因。分析人士指出,尽管Blackwell延迟出货的影响可能只是暂时的,但对于英伟达这家全球领先的AI芯片供应商来说,业绩前景存在任何不确定性都将引发市场担忧。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动解读 | 英伟达盘中大涨5.62%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动解读 | 英伟达盘中大涨5.62%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-03 21:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>英伟达公司(NVDA)今日盘中股价大跌5.62%,截至2024年9月3日16:52:14收于119.46美元。尽管英伟达公司本财季营收和利润均取得了大幅增长,但由于未来业绩指引低于市场预期,导致投资者出现担忧,纷纷抛售英伟达股票。</p>\n\n<p>英伟达公司2025财年第二季度(2024年4月-6月)总营收同比大增122%至创纪录的130.08亿美元,净利润更是同比增长163%至66.7亿美元。这主要得益于AI芯片Hopper系列的需求强劲。不过,英伟达预计第三季度总营收为132.5亿美元,同比增长83%,这一数字虽然依然可观,但低于市场预期。</p>\n\n<p>英伟达表示,下一代AI芯片Blackwell可能会出现一些延迟,这也是导致第三季度业绩指引不佳的主要原因。分析人士指出,尽管Blackwell延迟出货的影响可能只是暂时的,但对于英伟达这家全球领先的AI芯片供应商来说,业绩前景存在任何不确定性都将引发市场担忧。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191662792","content_text":"英伟达公司(NVDA)今日盘中股价大跌5.62%,截至2024年9月3日16:52:14收于119.46美元。尽管英伟达公司本财季营收和利润均取得了大幅增长,但由于未来业绩指引低于市场预期,导致投资者出现担忧,纷纷抛售英伟达股票。\n英伟达公司2025财年第二季度(2024年4月-6月)总营收同比大增122%至创纪录的130.08亿美元,净利润更是同比增长163%至66.7亿美元。这主要得益于AI芯片Hopper系列的需求强劲。不过,英伟达预计第三季度总营收为132.5亿美元,同比增长83%,这一数字虽然依然可观,但低于市场预期。\n英伟达表示,下一代AI芯片Blackwell可能会出现一些延迟,这也是导致第三季度业绩指引不佳的主要原因。分析人士指出,尽管Blackwell延迟出货的影响可能只是暂时的,但对于英伟达这家全球领先的AI芯片供应商来说,业绩前景存在任何不确定性都将引发市场担忧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683216518,"gmtCreate":1656346538539,"gmtModify":1704864524268,"author":{"id":"4103607787878940","authorId":"4103607787878940","name":"最美赵露思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ceddba202c5f1271f160a358fc673b9b","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103607787878940","authorIdStr":"4103607787878940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"540？","listText":"540？","text":"540？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683216518","repostId":"1110940139","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1110940139","pubTimestamp":1656300829,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110940139?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-27 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: The Steep Decline Is Just Getting Started?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110940139","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryThis is a dedicated price action analysis on Tesla stock. Despite its recent bear trap, we no","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>This is a dedicated price action analysis on Tesla stock. Despite its recent bear trap, we noted that TSLA has failed to regain its bullish momentum.</li><li>The twin double top bull traps have significantly impeded the recovery of its bullish bias. As such, we urge investors to be very cautious here.</li><li>Our reverse cash flow model indicates that Tesla would find it increasingly challenging to justify its valuation if the market is not supportive of its premium.</li><li>Therefore, we revise our rating from Buy to Hold. We urge investors to await a successful re-test of its revised near-term support of $540 before considering adding exposure.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9c9bc958f4feafafbcf022f26909619\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Spencer Platt/Getty Images News</span></p><p>We follow up with a detailed price action analysis on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock as there have been significant developments over the past month.</p><p>We re-rated TSLA to Buy in May after cautioning investors to be wary about the unknowns in Q2 after its robust Q1 results in April. Our postulation about the headwinds that impacted TSLA in Q2 has played out, as investors were overly optimistic in April.</p><p>However, the market astutely drew in buyers to set up a double top bull trap in early April before forcing a rapid liquidation in May, resulting in a validated bear trap. As a result, we revised our rating earlier than usual, expecting a bear trap to ensue.</p><p>However, TSLA has remained in negative flow (decisive bearish momentum) as it struggled to regain its bullish bias. Therefore, we revisited our price action thesis and valuation models to parse the recent developments.</p><p>Despite the near-term bear trap, we believe that the momentum in TSLA stock has shifted dramatically to the downside. Therefore, TSLA could continue to underperform the market as it parses its rich valuation.</p><p>Accordingly, we believe it&#39;s appropriate to revise our rating from Buy to Hold as we await a re-test of its revised near-term support ($540).</p><p><b>TSLA - The Double Tops Took Its Toll</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6eb94701fa4d1f2bea55f69fe7bd5e6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TSLA price chart (monthly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>We believe the market has moved to digest TSLA stock&#39;s massive rise from the COVID bottom since October 2021 (its first significant bull trap). Moreover, it formed its first double top bull trap in January 2022 (as seen above), which cautioned that the party could be over soon.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d3090428cadbd735f822fb665d4e046\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TSLA price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>Poring into its weekly chart, we can glean its first double top in January, which sent TSLA into a rapid liquidation that formed a validated bear trap in late February. But, a second double top in early April (drawing in buyers rapidly before the release of its Q1 earnings) with a lower high formed after its February bear trap (thus resolved).</p><p>Two double tops in quick succession would typically have caused significant concerns because such price action structures are often potent early warning signals of trend reversals.</p><p>But, we postulated in May that the rapid sell-off could form a bear trap (which it did, as seen above) as TSLA consolidated at the current levels. However, we noted that TSLA has failed to regain positive flow (decisive bullish bias), despite its near-term bear trap, moving into bearish momentum.</p><p>Consequently, the change in flow is significant, which is consistent with the impact from its twin double tops. The market seems keen to continue forcing further sell-offs after it draws in the current round of dip buyers.</p><p>Therefore, we have lowered its near-term support to $540 as we await its potential re-test.</p><p><b>TSLA&#39;s Expensive Valuation Is Coming Home To Roost</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f413604d87f01251de5653bc65daeca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TSLA valuation metrics (TIKR)</span></p><p>Given its normalized P/E of 55.37x, we think the argument that it&#39;s cheap is getting harder to defend. We have consistently recognized that TSLA stock has traded at a premium. Notably, the market has supported that premium previously, as TSLA grew its topline and profitability significantly. Therefore, the 50x P/E mark has helped to form previous bottoms in its price action.</p><p>But, investors must recognize that the market has reversed its flow convincingly on TSLA stock (from bullish to bearish). Therefore, past arguments defending its 50x P/E &#34;bottom&#34; may be increasingly tenuous. Instead, we think the market has shifted its focus on TSLA stock&#39;s rapid ascent over the past two years, which has made its valuation too rich to justify.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268ecc3ce898db3e3c9b0047804767c3\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TSLA reverse cash flow valuation model. Data source: S&amp;P Cap IQ, author</span></p><p>TSLA stock delivered a 5Y CAGR of 56.72%, easily outperforming the Invesco QQQ ETF&#39;s (QQQ) 15.17% 5Y CAGR. Therefore, to expect it to meet its previous outperformance moving forward would have required a gargantuan effort that, in our opinion, is &#34;impossible.&#34;</p><p>As a result, we revised our hurdle rate to a more reasonable 20% (which is still above the market&#39;s 5Y average). However, with a lower hurdle rate, it only makes sense that the market would require a higher free cash flow (FCF) yield to hold TSLA. Hence, we assumed an FCF yield of 2.5%, consistent with our assumptions of &#34;high-growth plays.&#34; We have been &#34;lenient&#34; because we usually use at least a 25% hurdle to justify a 2.5% yield. Therefore, we have cut CEO Elon Musk &amp; team some slack.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5578f674cef20e2c80ade2375c56a3a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Tesla revenue change % and adjusted EBIT change % consensus estimates (S&amp;P Cap IQ)</span></p><p>Using a blended TTM FCF margin of 13%, we arrived at a TTM revenue target of $292.6B by CQ2&#39;26. However, the consensus estimates suggest that TSLA could deliver revenue of $141.6B in FY24. Notably, as seen above, Tesla&#39;s revenue and adjusted EBIT growth is estimated to slow dramatically through FY24. Therefore, investors need to be prepared that the potential for outperformance could be diminishing fast.</p><p>Given the Street&#39;s consensus (generally bullish), Tesla would need to post a TTM revenue CAGR of 43.97% through CQ2&#39;26. Therefore, investors need Tesla to deliver a cadence markedly above the consensus estimates. In our opinion, that&#39;s highly unlikely.</p><p><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></p><p>Tesla CEO Elon Musk probably recognized the need to prove that Tesla can continue scaling rapidly to justify its valuation and his enormous wealth tied to its stock. As a result, he has been emphasizing &#34;massive scale&#34; and also working to retool Giga Shanghai to ramp production, compensating for its Q2 weakness.</p><p>But, we believe that the market has moved decisively against TSLA stock, and therefore, Tesla investors should recognize the market&#39;s forward intentions.</p><p>As such,<i>we revise our rating on TSLA stock from Buy to Hold</i>. We urge investors to be patient and wait for a much steeper fall in its valuation before adding exposure.</p><p>This article was written by JR Research</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: The Steep Decline Is Just Getting Started?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: The Steep Decline Is Just Getting Started?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-27 11:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520211-tesla-tsla-steep-decline-getting-started><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThis is a dedicated price action analysis on Tesla stock. Despite its recent bear trap, we noted that TSLA has failed to regain its bullish momentum.The twin double top bull traps have ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520211-tesla-tsla-steep-decline-getting-started\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520211-tesla-tsla-steep-decline-getting-started","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1110940139","content_text":"SummaryThis is a dedicated price action analysis on Tesla stock. Despite its recent bear trap, we noted that TSLA has failed to regain its bullish momentum.The twin double top bull traps have significantly impeded the recovery of its bullish bias. As such, we urge investors to be very cautious here.Our reverse cash flow model indicates that Tesla would find it increasingly challenging to justify its valuation if the market is not supportive of its premium.Therefore, we revise our rating from Buy to Hold. We urge investors to await a successful re-test of its revised near-term support of $540 before considering adding exposure.Spencer Platt/Getty Images NewsWe follow up with a detailed price action analysis on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock as there have been significant developments over the past month.We re-rated TSLA to Buy in May after cautioning investors to be wary about the unknowns in Q2 after its robust Q1 results in April. Our postulation about the headwinds that impacted TSLA in Q2 has played out, as investors were overly optimistic in April.However, the market astutely drew in buyers to set up a double top bull trap in early April before forcing a rapid liquidation in May, resulting in a validated bear trap. As a result, we revised our rating earlier than usual, expecting a bear trap to ensue.However, TSLA has remained in negative flow (decisive bearish momentum) as it struggled to regain its bullish bias. Therefore, we revisited our price action thesis and valuation models to parse the recent developments.Despite the near-term bear trap, we believe that the momentum in TSLA stock has shifted dramatically to the downside. Therefore, TSLA could continue to underperform the market as it parses its rich valuation.Accordingly, we believe it's appropriate to revise our rating from Buy to Hold as we await a re-test of its revised near-term support ($540).TSLA - The Double Tops Took Its TollTSLA price chart (monthly) (TradingView)We believe the market has moved to digest TSLA stock's massive rise from the COVID bottom since October 2021 (its first significant bull trap). Moreover, it formed its first double top bull trap in January 2022 (as seen above), which cautioned that the party could be over soon.TSLA price chart (weekly) (TradingView)Poring into its weekly chart, we can glean its first double top in January, which sent TSLA into a rapid liquidation that formed a validated bear trap in late February. But, a second double top in early April (drawing in buyers rapidly before the release of its Q1 earnings) with a lower high formed after its February bear trap (thus resolved).Two double tops in quick succession would typically have caused significant concerns because such price action structures are often potent early warning signals of trend reversals.But, we postulated in May that the rapid sell-off could form a bear trap (which it did, as seen above) as TSLA consolidated at the current levels. However, we noted that TSLA has failed to regain positive flow (decisive bullish bias), despite its near-term bear trap, moving into bearish momentum.Consequently, the change in flow is significant, which is consistent with the impact from its twin double tops. The market seems keen to continue forcing further sell-offs after it draws in the current round of dip buyers.Therefore, we have lowered its near-term support to $540 as we await its potential re-test.TSLA's Expensive Valuation Is Coming Home To RoostTSLA valuation metrics (TIKR)Given its normalized P/E of 55.37x, we think the argument that it's cheap is getting harder to defend. We have consistently recognized that TSLA stock has traded at a premium. Notably, the market has supported that premium previously, as TSLA grew its topline and profitability significantly. Therefore, the 50x P/E mark has helped to form previous bottoms in its price action.But, investors must recognize that the market has reversed its flow convincingly on TSLA stock (from bullish to bearish). Therefore, past arguments defending its 50x P/E \"bottom\" may be increasingly tenuous. Instead, we think the market has shifted its focus on TSLA stock's rapid ascent over the past two years, which has made its valuation too rich to justify.TSLA reverse cash flow valuation model. Data source: S&P Cap IQ, authorTSLA stock delivered a 5Y CAGR of 56.72%, easily outperforming the Invesco QQQ ETF's (QQQ) 15.17% 5Y CAGR. Therefore, to expect it to meet its previous outperformance moving forward would have required a gargantuan effort that, in our opinion, is \"impossible.\"As a result, we revised our hurdle rate to a more reasonable 20% (which is still above the market's 5Y average). However, with a lower hurdle rate, it only makes sense that the market would require a higher free cash flow (FCF) yield to hold TSLA. Hence, we assumed an FCF yield of 2.5%, consistent with our assumptions of \"high-growth plays.\" We have been \"lenient\" because we usually use at least a 25% hurdle to justify a 2.5% yield. Therefore, we have cut CEO Elon Musk & team some slack.Tesla revenue change % and adjusted EBIT change % consensus estimates (S&P Cap IQ)Using a blended TTM FCF margin of 13%, we arrived at a TTM revenue target of $292.6B by CQ2'26. However, the consensus estimates suggest that TSLA could deliver revenue of $141.6B in FY24. Notably, as seen above, Tesla's revenue and adjusted EBIT growth is estimated to slow dramatically through FY24. Therefore, investors need to be prepared that the potential for outperformance could be diminishing fast.Given the Street's consensus (generally bullish), Tesla would need to post a TTM revenue CAGR of 43.97% through CQ2'26. Therefore, investors need Tesla to deliver a cadence markedly above the consensus estimates. In our opinion, that's highly unlikely.Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?Tesla CEO Elon Musk probably recognized the need to prove that Tesla can continue scaling rapidly to justify its valuation and his enormous wealth tied to its stock. As a result, he has been emphasizing \"massive scale\" and also working to retool Giga Shanghai to ramp production, compensating for its Q2 weakness.But, we believe that the market has moved decisively against TSLA stock, and therefore, Tesla investors should recognize the market's forward intentions.As such,we revise our rating on TSLA stock from Buy to Hold. We urge investors to be patient and wait for a much steeper fall in its valuation before adding exposure.This article was written by JR Research","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}