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- MOORTHYMOORTHY
  ·2021-06-21
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  Apple: Winter Is Coming
  Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger
  Apple: Winter Is Coming
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- MOORTHYMOORTHY
  ·2021-06-15
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  ContextLogic Inks Partnership Deal with PrestaShop; Shares Pop 12.7%
  ContextLogic (WISH) has signed a two-year partnership deal with PrestaShop, a leading e-commerce pla
  ContextLogic Inks Partnership Deal with PrestaShop; Shares Pop 12.7%
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- MOORTHYMOORTHY
  ·2021-06-15
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- MOORTHYMOORTHY
  ·2021-06-15
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- MOORTHYMOORTHY
  ·2021-06-15
  Latest
  Fed Poised to Crawl Onto ‘Knife Edge’ to Rein In Record Largesse
  Fed wants to normalize relations with Congress, markets Policy makers may begin months-long talks on
  Fed Poised to Crawl Onto ‘Knife Edge’ to Rein In Record Largesse
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- MOORTHYMOORTHY
  ·2021-06-15
  Latest
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":90,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187521719,"gmtCreate":1623759695131,"gmtModify":1634028863465,"author":{"id":"3586762387213932","authorId":"3586762387213932","name":"MOORTHY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a827a03f1b2ba7925f12df176f4dfb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586762387213932","authorIdStr":"3586762387213932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187521719","repostId":"2143562407","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143562407","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623757200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2143562407?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 19:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ContextLogic Inks Partnership Deal with PrestaShop; Shares Pop 12.7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143562407","media":"SmarterAnalyst","summary":"ContextLogic (WISH) has signed a two-year partnership deal with PrestaShop, a leading e-commerce pla","content":"<p>ContextLogic (<b>WISH</b>) has signed a two-year partnership deal with PrestaShop, a leading e-commerce platform. ContextLogic is an American online e-commerce platform that facilitates transactions between sellers and buyers.</p>\n<p>Following the deal announcement, shares of the company rose 12.7% to close at $11.27 on June 14.</p>\n<p>The partnership will enable merchants and brands on the PrestaShop platform to sell their products on the Wish marketplace. Moreover, PrestaShop merchants will be offered marketing and sales support, including special incentives.</p>\n<p>Wish will now be granted the official “Trusted Partner” status on PrestaShop. The deal will provide its customers with even more quality merchants and brands, which is expected to further boost online sales.</p>\n<p>ContextLogic’s Senior Business Development Manager Alan Small said, “Wish serves millions of consumers around the world by providing high-quality products at affordable prices and a personalized, entertaining shopping experience. Partnering with PrestaShop will enable us to offer our consumers even more quality merchants and brands and to provide Prestashop merchants with a global platform to transact on.” (See&nbsp;ContextLogic stock analysis&nbsp;on TipRanks)</p>\n<p>On May 13, Credit Suisse analyst&nbsp;Stephen Ju&nbsp;reiterated a Buy rating on the stock but decreased the price target to $24 from $31. This implies 113% upside potential to current levels.</p>\n<p>The analyst said that the better-than-expected revenue and adjusted EBITDA in Q1 were driven by higher AOVs and stronger logistics.</p>\n<p>The rest of the Street is cautiously optimistic about the stock with a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 4 Buys and 2 Holds. The&nbsp;WISH average analyst price target&nbsp;of $20.50 implies 81.9% upside potential from current levels. Shares have decreased 43.8% over the past six months.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6599a74f35e4651d39fd3a82e2fdbd2\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/630a319313655e793da5a72016247792\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ContextLogic Inks Partnership Deal with PrestaShop; Shares Pop 12.7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nContextLogic Inks Partnership Deal with PrestaShop; Shares Pop 12.7%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 19:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/contextlogic-inks-partnership-deal-prestashop-105803315.html><strong>SmarterAnalyst</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ContextLogic (WISH) has signed a two-year partnership deal with PrestaShop, a leading e-commerce platform. ContextLogic is an American online e-commerce platform that facilitates transactions between ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/contextlogic-inks-partnership-deal-prestashop-105803315.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/contextlogic-inks-partnership-deal-prestashop-105803315.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2143562407","content_text":"ContextLogic (WISH) has signed a two-year partnership deal with PrestaShop, a leading e-commerce platform. ContextLogic is an American online e-commerce platform that facilitates transactions between sellers and buyers.\nFollowing the deal announcement, shares of the company rose 12.7% to close at $11.27 on June 14.\nThe partnership will enable merchants and brands on the PrestaShop platform to sell their products on the Wish marketplace. Moreover, PrestaShop merchants will be offered marketing and sales support, including special incentives.\nWish will now be granted the official “Trusted Partner” status on PrestaShop. The deal will provide its customers with even more quality merchants and brands, which is expected to further boost online sales.\nContextLogic’s Senior Business Development Manager Alan Small said, “Wish serves millions of consumers around the world by providing high-quality products at affordable prices and a personalized, entertaining shopping experience. Partnering with PrestaShop will enable us to offer our consumers even more quality merchants and brands and to provide Prestashop merchants with a global platform to transact on.” (See ContextLogic stock analysis on TipRanks)\nOn May 13, Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Ju reiterated a Buy rating on the stock but decreased the price target to $24 from $31. This implies 113% upside potential to current levels.\nThe analyst said that the better-than-expected revenue and adjusted EBITDA in Q1 were driven by higher AOVs and stronger logistics.\nThe rest of the Street is cautiously optimistic about the stock with a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 4 Buys and 2 Holds. The WISH average analyst price target of $20.50 implies 81.9% upside potential from current levels. Shares have decreased 43.8% over the past six months.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187654968,"gmtCreate":1623753245954,"gmtModify":1634029019843,"author":{"id":"3586762387213932","authorId":"3586762387213932","name":"MOORTHY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a827a03f1b2ba7925f12df176f4dfb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586762387213932","authorIdStr":"3586762387213932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187654968","repostId":"1193778475","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187655974,"gmtCreate":1623753216998,"gmtModify":1634029020799,"author":{"id":"3586762387213932","authorId":"3586762387213932","name":"MOORTHY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a827a03f1b2ba7925f12df176f4dfb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586762387213932","authorIdStr":"3586762387213932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187655974","repostId":"1135158450","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":51,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187652390,"gmtCreate":1623753192910,"gmtModify":1634029021629,"author":{"id":"3586762387213932","authorId":"3586762387213932","name":"MOORTHY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a827a03f1b2ba7925f12df176f4dfb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586762387213932","authorIdStr":"3586762387213932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187652390","repostId":"1142697857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142697857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623752468,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142697857?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 18:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Poised to Crawl Onto ‘Knife Edge’ to Rein In Record Largesse","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142697857","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Fed wants to normalize relations with Congress, markets\nPolicy makers may begin months-long talks on","content":"<ul>\n <li>Fed wants to normalize relations with Congress, markets</li>\n <li>Policy makers may begin months-long talks on taper Tuesday</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The Federal Reserve is inching toward the start of a long road to normalizing its relationship with the rest of Washington and Wall Street.</p>\n<p>After spending the past 15 months providing unprecedented help to the federal government and investors via trillions of dollars of bond purchases, it could start preliminary discussions about scaling back that support at a pivotal two-day policy meeting that kicks off on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>Even so, actual steps in that direction by Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are likely still months off.</p>\n<p>Weaning Wall Street and Washington off the Fed’s extraordinary largesse won’t be easy. Since Covid-19 struck the U.S. in March 2020, the central bank has brought more than $2.5 trillion of U.S. Treasury debt, effectively covering more than half of the federal government’s red ink over that time.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f845f5d5fa4baccad7e30207df549d71\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\">That buying -- together with about $870 billion in purchases of mortgage-backed securities -- has flooded the financial markets with liquidity, contributing to a doubling of the stock market from its pandemic low.</p>\n<p>“It will be like crawling along a knife-edge ridge,” former Bank of England policy maker Charles Goodhart said of the task facing the Fed. “If you do too little you’ll find inflation will just go on accelerating. If you do too much you get into a financial crisis and a recession.”</p>\n<p>Fed officials have said they want to see “substantial further progress” toward their goals of maximum employment and average 2% inflation before reducing current asset purchases of $120 billion per month. None are suggesting that they’re close to achieving that, though some have pressed for discussions to begin on a plan for tapering that buying.</p>\n<p>As Powell has pointed out more than once, payrolls are still substantially below where they were pre-pandemic -- some 7.6 million jobs short, according to the May employment report. And while inflation recently has proven surprisingly rapid -- consumer prices climbed 5% in May from a year earlier -- Powell and other Fed officials have argued that the rise is mostly transitory, the result of temporary bottlenecks as the economy reopens and low readings a year ago when it shut down.</p>\n<p><b>Price Pressures Heat Up</b></p>\n<p>U.S. core and headline inflation both increased more than forecast in May</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/320b6b6419ac9bcbe999007f7786196f\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"330\">“Why would the Fed try to fix bottleneck-driven inflation by signaling earlier rate hikes and hitting demand?” Julia Coronado, president of MacroPolicy Perspectives, asked in a June 14 tweet.</p>\n<p>Instead, after years of falling short of their inflation goal, policy makers will “err on the side of patience” in scaling back stimulus, said former Fed official David Wilcox, who is now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.</p>\n<p>Powell’s past and potential future also argue for patience. As a Fed governor in 2013, he was among those pushing then-Chairman Ben Bernanke to roll back quantitative easing, only to see the financial markets throw a “taper tantrum” at the mere suggestion such a policy shift was coming.</p>\n<p>With his own term as Fed chair up next February, Powell has an extra incentive to avoid a repeat of such turbulence.</p>\n<p>“While the Fed is an independent institution, its leadership, up for reappointment next year, could not totally ignore the dim view the administration and Democratic Congress would take toward a shift to a more pre-emptive policy stance,” Deutsche Bank chief economist David Folkerts-Landau and colleagues wrote in a June 7 report.</p>\n<p>Some three-quarters of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last week said they expect the Fed to announce between August and year-end that it will begin paring its purchases, with one-third forecasting it won’t fire the starting gun until December.</p>\n<p>It’s not just the timing of the taper that’s up for discussion. So too are its composition and pace.</p>\n<p>The Fed has faced criticism from within and outside the organization for continuing to buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities per month while house prices are surging. Vice Chair Randal Quarles said last month that the Fed would “certainly” look at that issue in the context of its taper discussions.</p>\n<p><b>Steady Pace</b></p>\n<p>The last time the Fed wound up a quantitative easing program, in 2014, it shrank its asset purchases at a steady pace.</p>\n<p>“Investors may be lulled into a false sense of security by that experience,” former Fed official William English told a June 8 Deutsche Bank webinar. Given all the uncertainty surrounding the post pandemic economy, “it’s not necessarily going to be the case that the Fed is going to taper in steady steps.”</p>\n<p>Much may depend on the financial markets. American Enterprise Institute resident fellow Desmond Lachman said the ultra-easy monetary policy being pursued by the Fed and other major central banks has led to an “everything asset price bubble,” with stock, credit and housing markets all frothy.</p>\n<p>“The chance of the bubble bursting is all the greater if the Fed is behind the curve,” he said.</p>\n<p>English, who is now at the Yale School of Management, said it’s going to be politically hard for the Fed to wind up its asset purchases and increase interest rates because that will boost the government’s borrowing costs.</p>\n<p>“The Fed is going to come under a lot of criticism for raising rates and making budget choices for the Congress considerably tougher,” he said, adding, “At some level, the Fed needs to both normalize policy but also normalize its relationship with the government.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Poised to Crawl Onto ‘Knife Edge’ to Rein In Record Largesse</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Poised to Crawl Onto ‘Knife Edge’ to Rein In Record Largesse\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 18:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/fed-poised-to-crawl-onto-knife-edge-to-rein-in-record-largesse><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Fed wants to normalize relations with Congress, markets\nPolicy makers may begin months-long talks on taper Tuesday\n\nThe Federal Reserve is inching toward the start of a long road to normalizing its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/fed-poised-to-crawl-onto-knife-edge-to-rein-in-record-largesse\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/fed-poised-to-crawl-onto-knife-edge-to-rein-in-record-largesse","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142697857","content_text":"Fed wants to normalize relations with Congress, markets\nPolicy makers may begin months-long talks on taper Tuesday\n\nThe Federal Reserve is inching toward the start of a long road to normalizing its relationship with the rest of Washington and Wall Street.\nAfter spending the past 15 months providing unprecedented help to the federal government and investors via trillions of dollars of bond purchases, it could start preliminary discussions about scaling back that support at a pivotal two-day policy meeting that kicks off on Tuesday.\nEven so, actual steps in that direction by Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are likely still months off.\nWeaning Wall Street and Washington off the Fed’s extraordinary largesse won’t be easy. Since Covid-19 struck the U.S. in March 2020, the central bank has brought more than $2.5 trillion of U.S. Treasury debt, effectively covering more than half of the federal government’s red ink over that time.\nThat buying -- together with about $870 billion in purchases of mortgage-backed securities -- has flooded the financial markets with liquidity, contributing to a doubling of the stock market from its pandemic low.\n“It will be like crawling along a knife-edge ridge,” former Bank of England policy maker Charles Goodhart said of the task facing the Fed. “If you do too little you’ll find inflation will just go on accelerating. If you do too much you get into a financial crisis and a recession.”\nFed officials have said they want to see “substantial further progress” toward their goals of maximum employment and average 2% inflation before reducing current asset purchases of $120 billion per month. None are suggesting that they’re close to achieving that, though some have pressed for discussions to begin on a plan for tapering that buying.\nAs Powell has pointed out more than once, payrolls are still substantially below where they were pre-pandemic -- some 7.6 million jobs short, according to the May employment report. And while inflation recently has proven surprisingly rapid -- consumer prices climbed 5% in May from a year earlier -- Powell and other Fed officials have argued that the rise is mostly transitory, the result of temporary bottlenecks as the economy reopens and low readings a year ago when it shut down.\nPrice Pressures Heat Up\nU.S. core and headline inflation both increased more than forecast in May\n“Why would the Fed try to fix bottleneck-driven inflation by signaling earlier rate hikes and hitting demand?” Julia Coronado, president of MacroPolicy Perspectives, asked in a June 14 tweet.\nInstead, after years of falling short of their inflation goal, policy makers will “err on the side of patience” in scaling back stimulus, said former Fed official David Wilcox, who is now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.\nPowell’s past and potential future also argue for patience. As a Fed governor in 2013, he was among those pushing then-Chairman Ben Bernanke to roll back quantitative easing, only to see the financial markets throw a “taper tantrum” at the mere suggestion such a policy shift was coming.\nWith his own term as Fed chair up next February, Powell has an extra incentive to avoid a repeat of such turbulence.\n“While the Fed is an independent institution, its leadership, up for reappointment next year, could not totally ignore the dim view the administration and Democratic Congress would take toward a shift to a more pre-emptive policy stance,” Deutsche Bank chief economist David Folkerts-Landau and colleagues wrote in a June 7 report.\nSome three-quarters of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last week said they expect the Fed to announce between August and year-end that it will begin paring its purchases, with one-third forecasting it won’t fire the starting gun until December.\nIt’s not just the timing of the taper that’s up for discussion. So too are its composition and pace.\nThe Fed has faced criticism from within and outside the organization for continuing to buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities per month while house prices are surging. Vice Chair Randal Quarles said last month that the Fed would “certainly” look at that issue in the context of its taper discussions.\nSteady Pace\nThe last time the Fed wound up a quantitative easing program, in 2014, it shrank its asset purchases at a steady pace.\n“Investors may be lulled into a false sense of security by that experience,” former Fed official William English told a June 8 Deutsche Bank webinar. Given all the uncertainty surrounding the post pandemic economy, “it’s not necessarily going to be the case that the Fed is going to taper in steady steps.”\nMuch may depend on the financial markets. American Enterprise Institute resident fellow Desmond Lachman said the ultra-easy monetary policy being pursued by the Fed and other major central banks has led to an “everything asset price bubble,” with stock, credit and housing markets all frothy.\n“The chance of the bubble bursting is all the greater if the Fed is behind the curve,” he said.\nEnglish, who is now at the Yale School of Management, said it’s going to be politically hard for the Fed to wind up its asset purchases and increase interest rates because that will boost the government’s borrowing costs.\n“The Fed is going to come under a lot of criticism for raising rates and making budget choices for the Congress considerably tougher,” he said, adding, “At some level, the Fed needs to both normalize policy but also normalize its relationship with the government.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187178245,"gmtCreate":1623748031687,"gmtModify":1634029170221,"author":{"id":"3586762387213932","authorId":"3586762387213932","name":"MOORTHY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a827a03f1b2ba7925f12df176f4dfb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586762387213932","authorIdStr":"3586762387213932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187178245","repostId":"1114926830","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":80,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}