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- ckleesgckleesg
  ·2021-09-11
  No doubt the market has a long exuberant run. Everyone invested in are happy. Come to think of it, what goes up will come down eventually to the mean. That's what historical data tells us everytime. A dose of bearish sentiment is healthy in this exceptional market situation. Even if it does come, have a strong heart, stay invested in fundamentally good companies for the long term.
  The S&P 500 Has Had a Good Run. Why Wall Street Thinks a Pullback Is Coming.
  S&P 500 index funds will tumble by Christmas, one Wall Street strategist predicts. Not necessarily,
  The S&P 500 Has Had a Good Run. Why Wall Street Thinks a Pullback Is Coming.
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- ckleesgckleesg
  ·2021-09-08
  As market continues to climb, it will get exhausted at some point. It is not a question of whether it will fall but when. My take is in the next 3 - 6 months.
  Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.
  'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
  Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.
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Everyone invested in are happy. Come to think of it, what goes up will come down eventually to the mean. That's what historical data tells us everytime. A dose of bearish sentiment is healthy in this exceptional market situation. Even if it does come, have a strong heart, stay invested in fundamentally good companies for the long term.&nbsp;","listText":"No doubt the market has a long exuberant run. Everyone invested in are happy. Come to think of it, what goes up will come down eventually to the mean. That's what historical data tells us everytime. A dose of bearish sentiment is healthy in this exceptional market situation. Even if it does come, have a strong heart, stay invested in fundamentally good companies for the long term.&nbsp;","text":"No doubt the market has a long exuberant run. Everyone invested in are happy. Come to think of it, what goes up will come down eventually to the mean. That's what historical data tells us everytime. A dose of bearish sentiment is healthy in this exceptional market situation. Even if it does come, have a strong heart, stay invested in fundamentally good companies for the long term.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881531039","repostId":"1105074635","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105074635","pubTimestamp":1631321029,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105074635?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 08:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Has Had a Good Run. Why Wall Street Thinks a Pullback Is Coming.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105074635","media":"Barrons","summary":"S&P 500 index funds will tumble by Christmas, one Wall Street strategist predicts. Not necessarily, ","content":"<p>S&amp;P 500 index funds will tumble by Christmas, one Wall Street strategist predicts. Not necessarily, says another—but they’ll lose money over the next decade. I can’t decide whether to panic or just sulk.</p>\n<p>The index decides the fate of more than $5 trillion in linked investor assets. My only exposure is in my retirement, joint, college, healthcare, and, come to think of it, all other investment accounts. I don’t think my Chipotle Rewards account is affected, but I haven’t read the small print.</p>\n<p>The concern, of course, is that S&amp;P 500 trackers have had it too good for too long. The index has returned 376% over the past decade, or close to 17% a year, compounded. Among active managers tasked with beating the index, four out of five failed during the 10 years through 2020.</p>\n<p>For Bogleheads, as devotees of the late Vanguard founder and indexing pioneer John Bogle call themselves, the explanation is simple: Stock-picking is futile. But if that’s so, the typical active manager should do no better or worse than indexes on underlying stock performance, and underperform only to the extent he or she charges extra fees. In fact, they have trailed over 10 years by an average of 2.5% a year. Stinking that badly is a skill of its own—one that theoretically shouldn’t exist.</p>\n<p>Another explanation is that the S&amp;P 500’s popularity has created its own tailwind. “Flows into index funds raise the prices of large stocks,” conclude researchers from Michigan State University, the London School of Economics, and the University of California, Irvine,in a working paper&nbsp;that has been circulating since late last year. By now, you’ve heard that five companies&nbsp;—&nbsp;Apple,Microsoft,Alphabet,Amazon.com,and&nbsp;Facebook—combined for one-quarter of the S&amp;P 500’s market value. But all are still growing nicely, so why worry now?</p>\n<p>This past Tuesday, Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, predicted a 10% to 15% slide for the S&amp;P 500 before year’s end, but she says that doesn’t make her bearish. She points out that most 12-month stretches contain a big pullback for the index, but that we haven’t had one since March 2020. Tech giants, she has noticed, have lately traded hand-in-hand with Treasuries, suggesting that investors have come to view them as havens.</p>\n<p>“Owning the index today in a global context is a relatively defensive position, and we believe that it’s time to play offense,” she says.</p>\n<p>In Shalett’s view, interest rates will rise as global economies rebound, putting pressure on stock valuations. She predicts upside earnings surprises and stock outperformance for cyclical sectors like financials, industrials, energy, and materials, and for some pockets of consumer services and healthcare. “We’re very excited about buying a lot of different stocks,” she says. “We’re just not super-psyched about owning the index.”</p>\n<p>On Wednesday, Bank of America Securities issued a similarly mixed signal. It raised its year-end S&amp;P 500 target from 3800 all the way to 4250, which sounds optimistic. But it referred to the change as a mark to market—something typically done obligingly by accountants, not enthusiastically by forecasters. Also, the new target implies a decline of 5% or so from recent levels. Indexers have already made an easy 20% this year, so why sweat a holiday haircut? Because the bank is also predicting a 10-year average loss in the index of 0.8% a year.</p>\n<p>It’s devilishly difficult to predict short-term stock market returns. I tend to follow such forecasts more for the rationales than the targets. But long-term returns might be more closely linked than short-term ones to starting valuations, making forecasting more feasible. BofA says one measure has predicted about 80% of 10-year returns for the S&amp;P 500 since 1987: the ratio of the index’s price to what the bank calls its normalized earnings for the past 12 months. A typical reading is 19. The latest is 29. That has nudged the model’s predicted 10-year return below zero for the first time since 1999.</p>\n<p>BofA’s prescription is to buy dividend-growers and inflation beneficiaries like energy, financials, and materials. It also likes small-cap stocks, which it says are more closely tied than large-caps to U.S. economic growth, and have valuations that point to positive 10-year returns.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Has Had a Good Run. Why Wall Street Thinks a Pullback Is Coming.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Has Had a Good Run. Why Wall Street Thinks a Pullback Is Coming.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-11 08:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/sp-500-index-is-looking-vulnerable-51631313125?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>S&P 500 index funds will tumble by Christmas, one Wall Street strategist predicts. Not necessarily, says another—but they’ll lose money over the next decade. I can’t decide whether to panic or just ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/sp-500-index-is-looking-vulnerable-51631313125?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/sp-500-index-is-looking-vulnerable-51631313125?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105074635","content_text":"S&P 500 index funds will tumble by Christmas, one Wall Street strategist predicts. Not necessarily, says another—but they’ll lose money over the next decade. I can’t decide whether to panic or just sulk.\nThe index decides the fate of more than $5 trillion in linked investor assets. My only exposure is in my retirement, joint, college, healthcare, and, come to think of it, all other investment accounts. I don’t think my Chipotle Rewards account is affected, but I haven’t read the small print.\nThe concern, of course, is that S&P 500 trackers have had it too good for too long. The index has returned 376% over the past decade, or close to 17% a year, compounded. Among active managers tasked with beating the index, four out of five failed during the 10 years through 2020.\nFor Bogleheads, as devotees of the late Vanguard founder and indexing pioneer John Bogle call themselves, the explanation is simple: Stock-picking is futile. But if that’s so, the typical active manager should do no better or worse than indexes on underlying stock performance, and underperform only to the extent he or she charges extra fees. In fact, they have trailed over 10 years by an average of 2.5% a year. Stinking that badly is a skill of its own—one that theoretically shouldn’t exist.\nAnother explanation is that the S&P 500’s popularity has created its own tailwind. “Flows into index funds raise the prices of large stocks,” conclude researchers from Michigan State University, the London School of Economics, and the University of California, Irvine,in a working paper that has been circulating since late last year. By now, you’ve heard that five companies — Apple,Microsoft,Alphabet,Amazon.com,and Facebook—combined for one-quarter of the S&P 500’s market value. But all are still growing nicely, so why worry now?\nThis past Tuesday, Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, predicted a 10% to 15% slide for the S&P 500 before year’s end, but she says that doesn’t make her bearish. She points out that most 12-month stretches contain a big pullback for the index, but that we haven’t had one since March 2020. Tech giants, she has noticed, have lately traded hand-in-hand with Treasuries, suggesting that investors have come to view them as havens.\n“Owning the index today in a global context is a relatively defensive position, and we believe that it’s time to play offense,” she says.\nIn Shalett’s view, interest rates will rise as global economies rebound, putting pressure on stock valuations. She predicts upside earnings surprises and stock outperformance for cyclical sectors like financials, industrials, energy, and materials, and for some pockets of consumer services and healthcare. “We’re very excited about buying a lot of different stocks,” she says. “We’re just not super-psyched about owning the index.”\nOn Wednesday, Bank of America Securities issued a similarly mixed signal. It raised its year-end S&P 500 target from 3800 all the way to 4250, which sounds optimistic. But it referred to the change as a mark to market—something typically done obligingly by accountants, not enthusiastically by forecasters. Also, the new target implies a decline of 5% or so from recent levels. Indexers have already made an easy 20% this year, so why sweat a holiday haircut? Because the bank is also predicting a 10-year average loss in the index of 0.8% a year.\nIt’s devilishly difficult to predict short-term stock market returns. I tend to follow such forecasts more for the rationales than the targets. But long-term returns might be more closely linked than short-term ones to starting valuations, making forecasting more feasible. BofA says one measure has predicted about 80% of 10-year returns for the S&P 500 since 1987: the ratio of the index’s price to what the bank calls its normalized earnings for the past 12 months. A typical reading is 19. The latest is 29. That has nudged the model’s predicted 10-year return below zero for the first time since 1999.\nBofA’s prescription is to buy dividend-growers and inflation beneficiaries like energy, financials, and materials. It also likes small-cap stocks, which it says are more closely tied than large-caps to U.S. economic growth, and have valuations that point to positive 10-year returns.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880443317,"gmtCreate":1631075919539,"gmtModify":1631889534730,"author":{"id":"3584683550329752","authorId":"3584683550329752","authorIdStr":"3584683550329752","name":"ckleesg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b8d5e762cc951df66bdca872a706848","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584683550329752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"As market continues to climb, it will get exhausted&nbsp;at some point. It is not a question of whether&nbsp;it will fall but when. My take is in the next 3 - 6 months.&nbsp;","listText":"As market continues to climb, it will get exhausted&nbsp;at some point. It is not a question of whether&nbsp;it will fall but when. My take is in the next 3 - 6 months.&nbsp;","text":"As market continues to climb, it will get exhausted at some point. It is not a question of whether it will fall but when. My take is in the next 3 - 6 months.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880443317","repostId":"2165368421","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165368421","pubTimestamp":1631060195,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2165368421?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165368421","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management","content":"<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p>\n<p>\"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p>\n<p>\"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p>\n<p>She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p>\n<p>Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p>\n<p>\"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p>\n<p>Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p>\n<p>The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&amp;P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p>\n<p>\"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p>\n<p>Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p>\n<p>For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p>\n<p>\"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-08 08:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management\nInvestors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"2165368421","content_text":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management\nInvestors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.\nMorgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.\n\"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.\n\"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"\nShe suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"\nMegatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.\nA Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.\n\"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"\nAlthough Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.\nThe tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.\nMeanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.\n\"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"\nInvestors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.\nFor example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.\n\"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274710327383","authorId":"3479274710327383","authorIdStr":"3479274710327383","name":"李苗苗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture41","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274710327383"},"content":"市场有涨有跌是正常表现，但是何时涨跌就很考验个人的判断了。时机不对，伤害还是很大的","text":"市场有涨有跌是正常表现，但是何时涨跌就很考验个人的判断了。时机不对，伤害还是很大的","html":"市场有涨有跌是正常表现，但是何时涨跌就很考验个人的判断了。时机不对，伤害还是很大的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}