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- NesaraimeNesaraime
  ·2021-12-20
  Guess it’s time for me to finally take my losses and leave 🤡
  ContextLogic Will Need More Than a New CEO Before WISH Stock Turns Around
  WISH stock is likely to crater much more given its huge cash burn and the need for a new CEO to slash costs and raise capital
  ContextLogic Will Need More Than a New CEO Before WISH Stock Turns Around
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- NesaraimeNesaraime
  ·2021-12-17
  Shorting it HARD
  How Does Reddit Make Money? 6 Things to Know Ahead of Reddit IPO.
  Reddit, internet message board turned collaborative institution, is now eying its own initial public
  How Does Reddit Make Money? 6 Things to Know Ahead of Reddit IPO.
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- NesaraimeNesaraime
  ·2021-11-24
  Be smart guys. Take profits where you need to, buy the dip as winter sets in
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- NesaraimeNesaraime
  ·2021-11-24
  Q4 gonna make or break amc. Retail apes can’t help them no more
  AMC: Winter Is Coming
  Summary US coronavirus cases are on the rise again. Domestic box office off to slow start in Q4. Wo
  AMC: Winter Is Coming
  321 评论
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- NesaraimeNesaraime
  ·2021-11-23
  Calm. Supply chain woe guidance not present
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- NesaraimeNesaraime
  ·2021-09-30
  This is common sense. Why did “industry pros” need to be consulted for this, other than to serve as a click bait title?
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  827 评论
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it’s time for me to finally take my losses and&nbsp;leave 🤡","listText":"Guess it’s time for me to finally take my losses and&nbsp;leave 🤡","text":"Guess it’s time for me to finally take my losses and leave 🤡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693622493","repostId":"1149637008","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1149637008","pubTimestamp":1639978247,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149637008?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 13:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ContextLogic Will Need More Than a New CEO Before WISH Stock Turns Around","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149637008","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"WISH stock is likely to crater much more given its huge cash burn and the need for a new CEO to slash costs and raise capital","content":"<p>I have been deeply skeptical of&nbsp;<b>ContextLogic</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>WISH</u></b>) stock, as you might have guessed if you read my last article about WISH stock on June 18.</p>\n<p>The title of that article, “Wish Stock Is Cheap, But Not a Bargain,” displayed my belief that WISH stock was not going to rise anytime soon.</p>\n<p>In fact, I should have been even more skeptical. Since then, WISH stock has fallen from $11.40 to $3.11 per share as of Dec. 16. What a disaster. Everyone in this stock has lost money.</p>\n<p>So it shouldn’t have surprised anyone when management told WISH stock investors on Nov. 10 that the CEO was going to be replaced.</p>\n<p>For some reason, he was kept on the job until a replacement became available. Personally, I would have gotten rid of him well before this.</p>\n<p><b>What Is Going On At ContextLogic</b></p>\n<p>The reason is that this company is not only unprofitable but burning through cash like wildfire. The company calls itself one of the world’s largest e-commerce sites, and that might well be true. But from what I can see, it’s also one of the world’s most<i>unprofitable</i>e-commerce firms.</p>\n<p>Let’s take a look at the cold hard reality, and why the CEO was fired. I like to pass over all the nonsense that most companies put out about their fast growth rates and go straight to the cash flow statements.</p>\n<p>Page 8 of the shareholder letter&nbsp;has the three and nine-month cash flow statements ending Sept. 30. It shows that operating cash flow was negative $902 million over the first 9 months of 2021. In addition, for the last three months of that period, ContextLogic burnt through $344 million.</p>\n<p>Here is why that is so bad. If this cash burn rate keeps up, the company will eat through all of its cash. The $344 million Q3 cash burn works out to $1.376 billion. The problem is, ContextLogic has just $1.072 billion in cash and $143 million in marketable securities. Total cash and securities are only $1.215 billion.</p>\n<p>The market knows the company is quickly nearing a point where it is either going to have to borrow debt, raise more equity or both. Whatever the case, it won’t be good for shareholders or company value. The bottom line is that the company needs to get profitable from a cash flow standpoint.</p>\n<p>And things are actually worse than that. Because of the company’s negative cash flow margins, the higher it grows sales, the higher its losses will grow. This is essentially a death spiral for the company.</p>\n<p><b>Where This Situation Leaves WISH Stock</b></p>\n<p>Since WISH stock has fallen so much one might assume that this means that ContextLogic has already discounted the prospect of a dilutive share issue.</p>\n<p>But I don’t think it has. First of all, the company has to hire a new CEO, and he will want to put his stamp on how to turn the company around. In fact, it may not even be very easy for the board to find a turnaround artist.</p>\n<p>The first thing that new CEO is going to do is slash costs. That is going to deepen losses. Then he is going to raise cash at a huge discount, maybe even up to 50% from today’s price. The only way institutional investors will put money in this stock is if “their” CEO candidate comes in with a slash and burn strategy.</p>\n<p>All of this means that WISH stock is going to crater even further. I put it at 50/50 odds that the stock falls another 50%. At that point, we can talk about whether WISH stock looks like a bargain. It will all depend on how drastic the changes that the new CEO will put into place to cut the company’s cash burn situation. And if he doesn’t, WISH stock will crater even further.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ContextLogic Will Need More Than a New CEO Before WISH Stock Turns Around</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nContextLogic Will Need More Than a New CEO Before WISH Stock Turns Around\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-20 13:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/12/wish-stock-will-likely-crater-much-more-as-contextlogic-is-burning-through-cash/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I have been deeply skeptical of ContextLogic(NASDAQ:WISH) stock, as you might have guessed if you read my last article about WISH stock on June 18.\nThe title of that article, “Wish Stock Is Cheap, But...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/wish-stock-will-likely-crater-much-more-as-contextlogic-is-burning-through-cash/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/wish-stock-will-likely-crater-much-more-as-contextlogic-is-burning-through-cash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149637008","content_text":"I have been deeply skeptical of ContextLogic(NASDAQ:WISH) stock, as you might have guessed if you read my last article about WISH stock on June 18.\nThe title of that article, “Wish Stock Is Cheap, But Not a Bargain,” displayed my belief that WISH stock was not going to rise anytime soon.\nIn fact, I should have been even more skeptical. Since then, WISH stock has fallen from $11.40 to $3.11 per share as of Dec. 16. What a disaster. Everyone in this stock has lost money.\nSo it shouldn’t have surprised anyone when management told WISH stock investors on Nov. 10 that the CEO was going to be replaced.\nFor some reason, he was kept on the job until a replacement became available. Personally, I would have gotten rid of him well before this.\nWhat Is Going On At ContextLogic\nThe reason is that this company is not only unprofitable but burning through cash like wildfire. The company calls itself one of the world’s largest e-commerce sites, and that might well be true. But from what I can see, it’s also one of the world’s mostunprofitablee-commerce firms.\nLet’s take a look at the cold hard reality, and why the CEO was fired. I like to pass over all the nonsense that most companies put out about their fast growth rates and go straight to the cash flow statements.\nPage 8 of the shareholder letter has the three and nine-month cash flow statements ending Sept. 30. It shows that operating cash flow was negative $902 million over the first 9 months of 2021. In addition, for the last three months of that period, ContextLogic burnt through $344 million.\nHere is why that is so bad. If this cash burn rate keeps up, the company will eat through all of its cash. The $344 million Q3 cash burn works out to $1.376 billion. The problem is, ContextLogic has just $1.072 billion in cash and $143 million in marketable securities. Total cash and securities are only $1.215 billion.\nThe market knows the company is quickly nearing a point where it is either going to have to borrow debt, raise more equity or both. Whatever the case, it won’t be good for shareholders or company value. The bottom line is that the company needs to get profitable from a cash flow standpoint.\nAnd things are actually worse than that. Because of the company’s negative cash flow margins, the higher it grows sales, the higher its losses will grow. This is essentially a death spiral for the company.\nWhere This Situation Leaves WISH Stock\nSince WISH stock has fallen so much one might assume that this means that ContextLogic has already discounted the prospect of a dilutive share issue.\nBut I don’t think it has. First of all, the company has to hire a new CEO, and he will want to put his stamp on how to turn the company around. In fact, it may not even be very easy for the board to find a turnaround artist.\nThe first thing that new CEO is going to do is slash costs. That is going to deepen losses. Then he is going to raise cash at a huge discount, maybe even up to 50% from today’s price. The only way institutional investors will put money in this stock is if “their” CEO candidate comes in with a slash and burn strategy.\nAll of this means that WISH stock is going to crater even further. I put it at 50/50 odds that the stock falls another 50%. At that point, we can talk about whether WISH stock looks like a bargain. It will all depend on how drastic the changes that the new CEO will put into place to cut the company’s cash burn situation. And if he doesn’t, WISH stock will crater even further.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690728131,"gmtCreate":1639710918358,"gmtModify":1639710977043,"author":{"id":"3579004280603386","authorId":"3579004280603386","name":"Nesaraime","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbfd230e819ce6cc84a815dbb26f30ba","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Shorting it HARD","listText":"Shorting it HARD","text":"Shorting it HARD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690728131","repostId":"1177842222","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1177842222","pubTimestamp":1639705992,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177842222?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 09:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Does Reddit Make Money? 6 Things to Know Ahead of Reddit IPO.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177842222","media":"investor place","summary":"Reddit, internet message board turned collaborative institution, is now eying its own initial public","content":"<p>Reddit, internet message board turned collaborative institution, is now eying its own initial public offering (IPO). On Wednesday, Reddit announced that it had confidentially submitted a draft registration of a proposed common stock offering. There are few details currently available about the possible IPO. However, the rumor alone has investors and Redditors alike buzzing with anticipation.</p>\n<p>A Reddit IPO is inarguably a jarring idea. After all, where exactly would Reddit Inc get its revenue from?</p>\n<p>In September, Reuters reported on a private fundraising round in which Reddit was valued at $10 billion dollars. This time around, Reddit is allegedly targeting a $15 billion valuation. Considering some other high-octane IPOs of late, that seems achievable to many of Reddit’s biggest investors.</p>\n<p>Reddit grew substantially this year after <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> forum, r/WallStreetBets, practically orchestrated a market malfunction on the site. Essentially, the “apes” at WSB concocted a scheme to pinch many of the investment firms shorting what they believed were undervalued stocks. Gamestop (NYSE:GME), AMC (NYSE:AMC) and other “meme stocks” hit unbelievable spikes as a result. Meanwhile, some hedge funds ended up bleeding money.</p>\n<p>So, with its now illustrious history in finance, how far can a Reddit IPO take the discussion forum website?</p>\n<p><b>6 Things to Know for the Pending Reddit IPO</b></p>\n<ol>\n <li>Reddit’s growing advertising revenue is likely the biggest justification for a public offering. In the second quarter, it reported pulling in roughly $100 million in advertising money, triple the number from the same time last year.</li>\n <li>In August, Reddit stated it was seeking to explore the audio and video fields, where ad revenue is far greater.</li>\n <li>Some of Reddit’s biggest investors are Fidelity Investments, Sequoia Capital and Tencent Holdings (OTCMKTS:TCEHY).</li>\n <li>Reddit was first founded in 2005, but has largely fallen behind quick-starts <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> (NYSE:TWTR) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a> (NASDAQ:FB) (formerly Facebook).</li>\n <li>This year, Reddit hired its first chief financial officer. The new CFO is Drew Vollero, formerly of Snap (NYSE:SNAP).</li>\n <li>Reddit joins a packed field of IPOs this year, with 785 companies going public in the first nine months of 2021. It remains interesting to speculate whether Reddit will opt for a traditional IPO or merge with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) as a quick and easy market entrance.</li>\n</ol>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Does Reddit Make Money? 6 Things to Know Ahead of Reddit IPO.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Does Reddit Make Money? 6 Things to Know Ahead of Reddit IPO.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-17 09:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/12/how-does-reddit-make-money-6-things-to-know-ahead-of-reddit-ipo/><strong>investor place</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Reddit, internet message board turned collaborative institution, is now eying its own initial public offering (IPO). On Wednesday, Reddit announced that it had confidentially submitted a draft ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/how-does-reddit-make-money-6-things-to-know-ahead-of-reddit-ipo/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/how-does-reddit-make-money-6-things-to-know-ahead-of-reddit-ipo/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177842222","content_text":"Reddit, internet message board turned collaborative institution, is now eying its own initial public offering (IPO). On Wednesday, Reddit announced that it had confidentially submitted a draft registration of a proposed common stock offering. There are few details currently available about the possible IPO. However, the rumor alone has investors and Redditors alike buzzing with anticipation.\nA Reddit IPO is inarguably a jarring idea. After all, where exactly would Reddit Inc get its revenue from?\nIn September, Reuters reported on a private fundraising round in which Reddit was valued at $10 billion dollars. This time around, Reddit is allegedly targeting a $15 billion valuation. Considering some other high-octane IPOs of late, that seems achievable to many of Reddit’s biggest investors.\nReddit grew substantially this year after one forum, r/WallStreetBets, practically orchestrated a market malfunction on the site. Essentially, the “apes” at WSB concocted a scheme to pinch many of the investment firms shorting what they believed were undervalued stocks. Gamestop (NYSE:GME), AMC (NYSE:AMC) and other “meme stocks” hit unbelievable spikes as a result. Meanwhile, some hedge funds ended up bleeding money.\nSo, with its now illustrious history in finance, how far can a Reddit IPO take the discussion forum website?\n6 Things to Know for the Pending Reddit IPO\n\nReddit’s growing advertising revenue is likely the biggest justification for a public offering. In the second quarter, it reported pulling in roughly $100 million in advertising money, triple the number from the same time last year.\nIn August, Reddit stated it was seeking to explore the audio and video fields, where ad revenue is far greater.\nSome of Reddit’s biggest investors are Fidelity Investments, Sequoia Capital and Tencent Holdings (OTCMKTS:TCEHY).\nReddit was first founded in 2005, but has largely fallen behind quick-starts Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:FB) (formerly Facebook).\nThis year, Reddit hired its first chief financial officer. The new CFO is Drew Vollero, formerly of Snap (NYSE:SNAP).\nReddit joins a packed field of IPOs this year, with 785 companies going public in the first nine months of 2021. It remains interesting to speculate whether Reddit will opt for a traditional IPO or merge with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) as a quick and easy market entrance.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874608075,"gmtCreate":1637764342355,"gmtModify":1637764342355,"author":{"id":"3579004280603386","authorId":"3579004280603386","name":"Nesaraime","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbfd230e819ce6cc84a815dbb26f30ba","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be smart guys. Take profits where you need to, buy the dip as winter sets in&nbsp;","listText":"Be smart guys. Take profits where you need to, buy the dip as winter sets in&nbsp;","text":"Be smart guys. Take profits where you need to, buy the dip as winter sets in","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874608075","repostId":"2185135142","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875711457,"gmtCreate":1637685877772,"gmtModify":1637685877772,"author":{"id":"3579004280603386","authorId":"3579004280603386","name":"Nesaraime","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbfd230e819ce6cc84a815dbb26f30ba","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Q4 gonna make or break amc. Retail apes can’t help them no more&nbsp;","listText":"Q4 gonna make or break amc. Retail apes can’t help them no more&nbsp;","text":"Q4 gonna make or break amc. Retail apes can’t help them no more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875711457","repostId":"1115340826","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115340826","pubTimestamp":1637650779,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115340826?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 14:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115340826","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nUS coronavirus cases are on the rise again.\nDomestic box office off to slow start in Q4.\nWo","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>US coronavirus cases are on the rise again.</li>\n <li>Domestic box office off to slow start in Q4.</li>\n <li>Working capital could go negative this quarter.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc1ee089ef96b1a9a58785515bed53fb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Colleen Michaels/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>A couple of weeks ago, I discussed the&nbsp;third quarter earnings report&nbsp;from theater chain&nbsp;AMC Entertainment. While the company was able to beat extremely low analyst estimates, it still lost a bit of money and ongoing cash burn weakened the balance sheet. With more than half of Q4 already in the books, I wanted to look at where some of the key numbers for AMC stand.</p>\n<p>Obviously, the most important number right now is in terms of the domestic box office. If people aren't going to the movies, AMC is going to have a hard time getting back to where it needs to be. Q3 was the best quarter for the business since the pandemic started, and October continued that positive trend by being the best individual month in about two years. On the&nbsp;Q3 conference call, CFO Sean Goodman made the following remark about theater grosses for the current quarter.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Based on a Q4 domestic box office full cost of approximately $2 billion, we currently believe that our adjusted EBITDA and our operating cash burn is likely to turn positive in the fourth quarter.\n</blockquote>\n<p>I should make the point that operating cash burn isn't what people normally look at, which is cash flow from operations on the cash flow statement. Also in that Q3 earnings call, we were reminded that AMC defines operating cash burn as \"operating cash flow before interest payments, pay back of deferred rent, and non-recurring rent prepayments and capital expenditures\". Thus, while the company may say it has positive operating cash flow, the real way most people calculate free cash flow is likely to be negative, even if the domestic box office gets to that $2 billion level.</p>\n<p>If we look at Box Office Mojo Stats, the&nbsp;domestic box office&nbsp;through Sunday was at $967.8 million. Sunday was day 52 of a 92 day quarter, and it means that we have averaged about $18.6 million per day so far in Q4. Projecting that out for the entire three month period puts us at $1.71 billion for the quarter, which would fall well short of where AMC really wants to be. Luckily, we do have some holiday weekends still coming up, which should help, but there isn't that one true blockbuster this year that moviegoers are really waiting to see. Christmas falling on a Saturday also might impact things a bit, as it might cancel out part of a normal viewing weekend.</p>\n<p>There is one other problem that AMC has to deal with, and it's something the company really can't do much about. The number of reported US coronavirus cases is on the rise again as temperatures start to really drop around the country. On October 24th, the 7-day moving average was under 64,000 cases per day, but as the graphic below shows, we're up almost 50% from that level. Last week there were some lockdowns announced in Europe as cases rise over there. Should there be any travel or entertainment restrictions announced in the US over the next couple of months, it will put a major dent into AMC's recovery plans.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ad3dbab9018db934f5daff66ece5621\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CDC coronavirus stats</span></p>\n<p>As investors know, the financial situation at AMC right now is not exactly great. To avoid bankruptcy during the pandemic, management had to take on a bit of high rate debt and take the share count from 52 million to over 513 million. At the moment, management really can't sell more shares because the company is brushing up against its authorized outstanding share count limit. Unless shareholders approve an increase in shares, more debt would be the only way to go, but it will be very costly. The table below shows some key financial data since the start of the pandemic, with dollar values in millions.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9726478957c7f77aa05312a12b7b1ce5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"144\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMC quarterly/yearly filings</span></p>\n<p>If Q4 turns out to be really bad, not only could we see working capital go negative, but the net debt pile could top $4 billion. The company doesn't need to raise any capital in the near term, which is good since most of its bonds are trading with low double digit yields currently. However, cash burn cannot continue forever, so the theater business needs to strengthen a bit at some point. Realistically, the best way for AMC to survive in the long run is for shareholders to allow an increase in the share count, because at a valuation of $21 billion right now, a little dilution could make a substantial improvement in the company's financial situation.</p>\n<p>In the end, the first half of Q4 has not been great so far for AMC. Coronavirus cases are on the rise yet again, and the situation could easily get worse with temperatures falling as winter approaches. The domestic box office hasn't had a tremendous start to the quarter either, meaning AMC will likely burn through more cash as the year comes to a close. That means that shareholders should eventually allow for a share count increase to take advantage of a valuation that's jumped dozens of times since the pandemic increased if they want AMC to be viable long term.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-23 14:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471201-amc-stock-winter-coming-coronavirus-cases-rise><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nUS coronavirus cases are on the rise again.\nDomestic box office off to slow start in Q4.\nWorking capital could go negative this quarter.\n\nColleen Michaels/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nA ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471201-amc-stock-winter-coming-coronavirus-cases-rise\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471201-amc-stock-winter-coming-coronavirus-cases-rise","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115340826","content_text":"Summary\n\nUS coronavirus cases are on the rise again.\nDomestic box office off to slow start in Q4.\nWorking capital could go negative this quarter.\n\nColleen Michaels/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nA couple of weeks ago, I discussed the third quarter earnings report from theater chain AMC Entertainment. While the company was able to beat extremely low analyst estimates, it still lost a bit of money and ongoing cash burn weakened the balance sheet. With more than half of Q4 already in the books, I wanted to look at where some of the key numbers for AMC stand.\nObviously, the most important number right now is in terms of the domestic box office. If people aren't going to the movies, AMC is going to have a hard time getting back to where it needs to be. Q3 was the best quarter for the business since the pandemic started, and October continued that positive trend by being the best individual month in about two years. On the Q3 conference call, CFO Sean Goodman made the following remark about theater grosses for the current quarter.\n\n Based on a Q4 domestic box office full cost of approximately $2 billion, we currently believe that our adjusted EBITDA and our operating cash burn is likely to turn positive in the fourth quarter.\n\nI should make the point that operating cash burn isn't what people normally look at, which is cash flow from operations on the cash flow statement. Also in that Q3 earnings call, we were reminded that AMC defines operating cash burn as \"operating cash flow before interest payments, pay back of deferred rent, and non-recurring rent prepayments and capital expenditures\". Thus, while the company may say it has positive operating cash flow, the real way most people calculate free cash flow is likely to be negative, even if the domestic box office gets to that $2 billion level.\nIf we look at Box Office Mojo Stats, the domestic box office through Sunday was at $967.8 million. Sunday was day 52 of a 92 day quarter, and it means that we have averaged about $18.6 million per day so far in Q4. Projecting that out for the entire three month period puts us at $1.71 billion for the quarter, which would fall well short of where AMC really wants to be. Luckily, we do have some holiday weekends still coming up, which should help, but there isn't that one true blockbuster this year that moviegoers are really waiting to see. Christmas falling on a Saturday also might impact things a bit, as it might cancel out part of a normal viewing weekend.\nThere is one other problem that AMC has to deal with, and it's something the company really can't do much about. The number of reported US coronavirus cases is on the rise again as temperatures start to really drop around the country. On October 24th, the 7-day moving average was under 64,000 cases per day, but as the graphic below shows, we're up almost 50% from that level. Last week there were some lockdowns announced in Europe as cases rise over there. Should there be any travel or entertainment restrictions announced in the US over the next couple of months, it will put a major dent into AMC's recovery plans.\nSource: CDC coronavirus stats\nAs investors know, the financial situation at AMC right now is not exactly great. To avoid bankruptcy during the pandemic, management had to take on a bit of high rate debt and take the share count from 52 million to over 513 million. At the moment, management really can't sell more shares because the company is brushing up against its authorized outstanding share count limit. Unless shareholders approve an increase in shares, more debt would be the only way to go, but it will be very costly. The table below shows some key financial data since the start of the pandemic, with dollar values in millions.\nSource: AMC quarterly/yearly filings\nIf Q4 turns out to be really bad, not only could we see working capital go negative, but the net debt pile could top $4 billion. The company doesn't need to raise any capital in the near term, which is good since most of its bonds are trading with low double digit yields currently. However, cash burn cannot continue forever, so the theater business needs to strengthen a bit at some point. Realistically, the best way for AMC to survive in the long run is for shareholders to allow an increase in the share count, because at a valuation of $21 billion right now, a little dilution could make a substantial improvement in the company's financial situation.\nIn the end, the first half of Q4 has not been great so far for AMC. Coronavirus cases are on the rise yet again, and the situation could easily get worse with temperatures falling as winter approaches. The domestic box office hasn't had a tremendous start to the quarter either, meaning AMC will likely burn through more cash as the year comes to a close. That means that shareholders should eventually allow for a share count increase to take advantage of a valuation that's jumped dozens of times since the pandemic increased if they want AMC to be viable long term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875464166,"gmtCreate":1637679740971,"gmtModify":1637679751649,"author":{"id":"3579004280603386","authorId":"3579004280603386","name":"Nesaraime","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbfd230e819ce6cc84a815dbb26f30ba","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Calm. Supply chain woe guidance not present&nbsp;","listText":"Calm. Supply chain woe guidance not present&nbsp;","text":"Calm. Supply chain woe guidance not present","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875464166","repostId":"2185893503","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865398554,"gmtCreate":1632945926615,"gmtModify":1632945926692,"author":{"id":"3579004280603386","authorId":"3579004280603386","name":"Nesaraime","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbfd230e819ce6cc84a815dbb26f30ba","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is common sense. Why did “industry pros” need to be consulted for this, other than to serve as a click bait title?","listText":"This is common sense. Why did “industry pros” need to be consulted for this, other than to serve as a click bait title?","text":"This is common sense. Why did “industry pros” need to be consulted for this, other than to serve as a click bait title?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865398554","repostId":"2171860242","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}