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- 小颖5500小颖5500
  ·07-25
  $Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 反对
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- 小颖5500小颖5500
  ·2023-08-30
  这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
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- 小颖5500小颖5500
  ·2022-07-04
  这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
  美股电商股被超卖！是时候抄底了？
  曾一度受益于疫情红利的知名企业Shopify、Etsy、Revolve Group和Wayfair在今年迄今都下降了50%或更多。此外，The RealReal、ThredUp和Rent The
  美股电商股被超卖！是时候抄底了？
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14:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股电商股被超卖！是时候抄底了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2248395818","media":"智通财经网","summary":"曾一度受益于疫情红利的知名企业Shopify、Etsy、Revolve  Group和Wayfair在今年迄今都下降了50%或更多。此外，The  RealReal、ThredUp和Rent The ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>曾一度受益于疫情红利的知名企业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">Etsy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RVLV\">Revolve  Group</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/W\">Wayfair</a>在今年迄今都下降了50%或更多。此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">The  RealReal</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDUP\">ThredUp</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RENT\">Rent The  Runway</a>这样依赖网购的小型公司的表现也不太好，其中一些公司的跌幅甚至超过80%，就连电商巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>也未能幸免，其庞大的业务涵盖了其旗舰电商业务之外的众多行业，但该公司今年年中销售额下滑幅度仍超过35%。</p><p>在这些最受欢迎的股票出现如此惊人的下跌之际，考虑到市场可能出现反应过度的情况，人们便开始有了抄底电商股的想法。本文将阐述今年上半年暴跌的电商股是否抄底时机已到。</p><p><b>经济衰退风险加剧市场悲观情绪</b></p><p>智通财经APP获悉，美国5月通胀率上升8.6%，创下40多年来的最高增长水平，除通胀外，消费者信心和潜在衰退的一系列报告继续加剧悲观情绪。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/191153342ac8ca45ef819851a0055e18\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>图1</p><p>此外，消费者信心指数在最近一个月下降到大衰退以来的最低水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f8702bde8cc3fd7eaf651082b434535\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>图2</p><p>消费者调查主管Joanne  Hsu对最新调查结果评论道:“不同收入、年龄、教育程度、地理区域、政治党派、股票持有情况和住房状况的消费者(情绪)都出现了大幅下降，消费者对长期通货膨胀的不确定性也达到了1991年以来的最高水平，从2021年开始持续大幅上升。”</p><p>调查还显示，79%的消费者预计未来一年的商业环境会很糟糕，47%的受访者将他们生活水平的下降归因于通货膨胀，这也与“大衰退”时期的数据一致。</p><p>据了解，随着通货膨胀加剧和油价持续飙升，将导致生活水平的下降，即使避免了严重的经济衰退，消费者也会勒紧裤腰带过日子。因此，许多分析师甚至对今年迄今电商股的大幅下跌持谨慎态度，认为这是底部的迹象。</p><p>根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>的数据，自春季以来，近期经济衰退的可能性翻了一番，达到26%。尽管衰退程度尚不确定，但该行表示，即便是2001年那种较为温和的情景，也意味着电商股将持续下行。</p><p>据了解，该行在一份研报中将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>(EBAY.US)和Farfetch(FTCH.US)评级从“买入”下调为“中性”，亚马逊、Etsy、the  RealReal、StitchFix、ContextLogic和MYT  Netherlands目标价也被下调。</p><p>然而，并非所有人都对互联网零售的前景感到悲观。为了应对新冠疫情，美联储为了刺激经济展开前所未有的刺激措施，而美国消费者的个人储蓄也在疫情后激增。据Raymond  James估计，这些措施导致逾2万亿美元的过剩储蓄流向美国消费者。该银行估计，在这个惊人的数字中，只有大约10%的过剩资金被新消费群体使用。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f63d9e9e649855550740c674bf2e7f02\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>图3</p><p>此外，尽管业务的不确定性不断增加，科技公司高管也发表了谨慎的声明，但失业率仍处于历史最低水平。事实上，在过去两年中，新冠疫情裁员期间出现的失业率激增已经急剧翻转，使劳动力市场恢复到令人难以置信的紧张状态。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70a6bf38c385521692a95a65f218918f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>图4</p><p>如果通胀像更为乐观的经济学家所预期的那样开始从峰值回落，那么综合来看，这些指标表明，尽管消费者信心下降，但可以说消费者仍相对强劲。</p><p><b>美股电商股能抄底吗?</b></p><p>麦肯锡最近的一份报告指出，市场对经济逆风的潜在高估，与对日常在线零售的低估相吻合。根据这家咨询公司的数据，在受疫情管控期间，美国电子商务使用量增长到疫情前平均水平的3.3倍，尤其对于西班牙和英国等欧洲市场，影响甚至更大。</p><p>此外，据该公司最新报告指出，疫情开始时，人们没有太多选择，就开始成群结队地在网上购物。但事实证明，许多人喜欢电子商务提供的便利。即使实体店重新开张，在线渠道的支出也在继续攀升。数据显示，自疫情开始以来，电子商务支出同比增长了27%，总渗透率增加了33%。</p><p>由此可见，消费者仍有弹性，网上消费比许多人预期的要高。因此，当前电商股的抛售规模很有可能是市场反应过度。</p><p>Raymond James分析师Rick  Patel表示：“我们开始报道的9家公司今年迄今股价平均下跌了57%，而纳斯达克指数下跌了26%。这让我们相信，大部分坏消息已被市场消化。我们根据对约600名消费者的调查，创建了一个投资建议框架，以确定哪些公司出现了超卖(这些公司的未来基本面可能会改善)。”</p><p>在推荐的股票中，Etsy、Revolve Group、realreal、ThredUp、Rent the  Runway(RENT.US)和Brilliant Earth被评为“买入”。医疗服装供应商Figs  Inc.被评为“强力买入”，因为该公司的股票被认为出现了远远超出其应有水平的过度抛售。</p><p>对此，Patel总结道：“尽管宏观上存在不确定性，但这已经预示着一种可怕的局面，而且我们认为市场已经消化了大量的坏消息。此外，我们相信风险/回报有利于上涨，尤其是对那些在我们投资框架中符合最多条件的高质量公司。”</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股电商股被超卖！是时候抄底了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-04 14:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/749143.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>曾一度受益于疫情红利的知名企业Shopify、Etsy、Revolve  Group和Wayfair在今年迄今都下降了50%或更多。此外，The  RealReal、ThredUp和Rent The  Runway这样依赖网购的小型公司的表现也不太好，其中一些公司的跌幅甚至超过80%，就连电商巨头亚马逊也未能幸免，其庞大的业务涵盖了其旗舰电商业务之外的众多行业，但该公司今年年中销售额下滑幅度仍超过...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/749143.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23a9d56257006191bc6800facfd4bdb2","relate_stocks":{"W":"Wayfair","REAL":"The RealReal","RENT":"Rent the Runway, Inc.","RVLV":"Revolve Group, LLC","SHOP":"Shopify Inc","TDUP":"ThredUp Inc.","ETSY":"Etsy, Inc."},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/749143.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2248395818","content_text":"曾一度受益于疫情红利的知名企业Shopify、Etsy、Revolve  Group和Wayfair在今年迄今都下降了50%或更多。此外，The  RealReal、ThredUp和Rent The  Runway这样依赖网购的小型公司的表现也不太好，其中一些公司的跌幅甚至超过80%，就连电商巨头亚马逊也未能幸免，其庞大的业务涵盖了其旗舰电商业务之外的众多行业，但该公司今年年中销售额下滑幅度仍超过35%。在这些最受欢迎的股票出现如此惊人的下跌之际，考虑到市场可能出现反应过度的情况，人们便开始有了抄底电商股的想法。本文将阐述今年上半年暴跌的电商股是否抄底时机已到。经济衰退风险加剧市场悲观情绪智通财经APP获悉，美国5月通胀率上升8.6%，创下40多年来的最高增长水平，除通胀外，消费者信心和潜在衰退的一系列报告继续加剧悲观情绪。图1此外，消费者信心指数在最近一个月下降到大衰退以来的最低水平。图2消费者调查主管Joanne  Hsu对最新调查结果评论道:“不同收入、年龄、教育程度、地理区域、政治党派、股票持有情况和住房状况的消费者(情绪)都出现了大幅下降，消费者对长期通货膨胀的不确定性也达到了1991年以来的最高水平，从2021年开始持续大幅上升。”调查还显示，79%的消费者预计未来一年的商业环境会很糟糕，47%的受访者将他们生活水平的下降归因于通货膨胀，这也与“大衰退”时期的数据一致。据了解，随着通货膨胀加剧和油价持续飙升，将导致生活水平的下降，即使避免了严重的经济衰退，消费者也会勒紧裤腰带过日子。因此，许多分析师甚至对今年迄今电商股的大幅下跌持谨慎态度，认为这是底部的迹象。根据瑞银的数据，自春季以来，近期经济衰退的可能性翻了一番，达到26%。尽管衰退程度尚不确定，但该行表示，即便是2001年那种较为温和的情景，也意味着电商股将持续下行。据了解，该行在一份研报中将eBay(EBAY.US)和Farfetch(FTCH.US)评级从“买入”下调为“中性”，亚马逊、Etsy、the  RealReal、StitchFix、ContextLogic和MYT  Netherlands目标价也被下调。然而，并非所有人都对互联网零售的前景感到悲观。为了应对新冠疫情，美联储为了刺激经济展开前所未有的刺激措施，而美国消费者的个人储蓄也在疫情后激增。据Raymond  James估计，这些措施导致逾2万亿美元的过剩储蓄流向美国消费者。该银行估计，在这个惊人的数字中，只有大约10%的过剩资金被新消费群体使用。图3此外，尽管业务的不确定性不断增加，科技公司高管也发表了谨慎的声明，但失业率仍处于历史最低水平。事实上，在过去两年中，新冠疫情裁员期间出现的失业率激增已经急剧翻转，使劳动力市场恢复到令人难以置信的紧张状态。图4如果通胀像更为乐观的经济学家所预期的那样开始从峰值回落，那么综合来看，这些指标表明，尽管消费者信心下降，但可以说消费者仍相对强劲。美股电商股能抄底吗?麦肯锡最近的一份报告指出，市场对经济逆风的潜在高估，与对日常在线零售的低估相吻合。根据这家咨询公司的数据，在受疫情管控期间，美国电子商务使用量增长到疫情前平均水平的3.3倍，尤其对于西班牙和英国等欧洲市场，影响甚至更大。此外，据该公司最新报告指出，疫情开始时，人们没有太多选择，就开始成群结队地在网上购物。但事实证明，许多人喜欢电子商务提供的便利。即使实体店重新开张，在线渠道的支出也在继续攀升。数据显示，自疫情开始以来，电子商务支出同比增长了27%，总渗透率增加了33%。由此可见，消费者仍有弹性，网上消费比许多人预期的要高。因此，当前电商股的抛售规模很有可能是市场反应过度。Raymond James分析师Rick  Patel表示：“我们开始报道的9家公司今年迄今股价平均下跌了57%，而纳斯达克指数下跌了26%。这让我们相信，大部分坏消息已被市场消化。我们根据对约600名消费者的调查，创建了一个投资建议框架，以确定哪些公司出现了超卖(这些公司的未来基本面可能会改善)。”在推荐的股票中，Etsy、Revolve Group、realreal、ThredUp、Rent the  Runway(RENT.US)和Brilliant Earth被评为“买入”。医疗服装供应商Figs  Inc.被评为“强力买入”，因为该公司的股票被认为出现了远远超出其应有水平的过度抛售。对此，Patel总结道：“尽管宏观上存在不确定性，但这已经预示着一种可怕的局面，而且我们认为市场已经消化了大量的坏消息。此外，我们相信风险/回报有利于上涨，尤其是对那些在我们投资框架中符合最多条件的高质量公司。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}