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Zhengwei Cai
99年入A股，2006年买基金，2007年触黄金，2009年开期货，2010年炒美股
IP属地：北京
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帖子 · 24
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Zhengwei Cai
Zhengwei Cai
·
2025-10-27
$八马茶业(06980)$
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666
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1
编组 21备份 2
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Zhengwei Cai
Zhengwei Cai
·
2025-06-16
$泡玛汇丰五甲沽A.P(17355)$
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768
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1
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Zhengwei Cai
Zhengwei Cai
·
2025-06-09
$舜光汇丰五乙牛A.C(55910)$
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908
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2
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Zhengwei Cai
Zhengwei Cai
·
2025-05-07
$沪上阿姨(02589)$
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701
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Zhengwei Cai
Zhengwei Cai
·
2025-05-02
$WTI原油2506(CL2506)$
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517
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1
编组 21备份 2
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Zhengwei Cai
Zhengwei Cai
·
2025-04-30
$泡玛中银五九沽A.P(16265)$
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573
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Zhengwei Cai
Zhengwei Cai
·
2025-04-28
$金力永磁(06680)$
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Zhengwei Cai
Zhengwei Cai
·
2025-04-23
$GRANITESHARES 2X LONG BABA DAILY ETF(BABX)$
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732
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Zhengwei Cai
Zhengwei Cai
·
2025-04-17
盈亏比不划算
期权女巫 | 英伟达股价短期可能横盘震荡或下跌，这个期权策略可从中获利
黄仁勋在会谈中表示，中国是英伟达非常重要的市场，希望将继续与中国合作。尽管最终可控，但处理许可的时间可能影响第二季度及下半年的业绩预期。策略适用场景：预计英伟达股价在4月25日前维持震荡或小幅下跌，且波动率不会显著上升。
期权女巫 | 英伟达股价短期可能横盘震荡或下跌，这个期权策略可从中获利
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Zhengwei Cai
Zhengwei Cai
·
2025-02-11
$GRANITESHARES 2X LONG BABA DAILY ETF(BABX)$
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803
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英伟达股价短期可能横盘震荡或下跌，这个期权策略可从中获利","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141385375","media":"期权女巫","summary":"黄仁勋在会谈中表示，中国是英伟达非常重要的市场，希望将继续与中国合作。尽管最终可控，但处理许可的时间可能影响第二季度及下半年的业绩预期。策略适用场景：预计英伟达股价在4月25日前维持震荡或小幅下跌，且波动率不会显著上升。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周三 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> （NVDA）收于104.49美元，单日大跌6.87%，过去5日累计跌幅达8.61%，年初至今下跌22.19%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/616e4c15b90c409892da048fce825566\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3471431736\">英伟达坏消息不断：</h2><p>英伟达在周二晚向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的文件中披露，公司日前收到美国政府通知，H20芯片和达到H20内存带宽、互连带宽等的芯片向中国等国家和地区出口需要获得许可证。</p><p>因此，英伟达将在 2026 财年第一季度，即当前季度，为 H20 存货及被取消的订单计提 55 亿美元的费用。</p><h2 id=\"id_4013950368\">另一则消息：</h2><p>4月17日，应中国贸促会邀请，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>公司首席执行官黄仁勋抵达北京。三个月前，黄仁勋曾在华表态称，要继续与中国合作。</p><p>中国贸促会会长任鸿斌今天在北京与英伟达公司首席执行官黄仁勋举行会谈。这是黄仁勋时隔3个月再次到访北京。黄仁勋在会谈中表示，中国是英伟达非常重要的市场，希望将继续与中国合作。</p><h2 id=\"id_2909415661\">分析师观点：</h2><p>摩根士丹利分析师下调了英伟达的营收预期，理由是担心美国对中国的最新芯片出口限制对英伟达的影响，将比预期的“更具破坏性”。摩根士丹利表示，尽管对新的出口限制感到担忧，但英伟达的股票仍是他们在美股市场上的“首选”。大摩维持对英伟达162美元的目标价，指出该公司仍将受益于对人工智能硬件不断增长的需求。</p><p>美国银行全球研究分析师Vivek Arya指出，英伟达的限制措施将影响其供应商和客户的"生态系统"。受影响的供应商包括半导体设备制造商科磊（KLA）和ASML控股。荷兰ASML公司在公布低于分析师预期的第一季度订单后股价大跌。</p><p>Melius Research分析师Ben Reitzes写道："可以看出该公司已不指望未来能获得任何出口许可。"Reitzes预测，凭借大型科技客户的强劲支出，英伟达仍能在全年实现环比增长。"目前谷歌、亚马逊和Meta对英伟达芯片的资本支出似乎稳固，尽管微软暗示数据中心建设将大幅放缓，但其计算支出仍可能保持稳定。"</p><p>他认为，随着Blackwell系列产品的推出，英伟达在4月季度营收有望超预期，7月季度实现10%的环比增长，10月季度增长7%。</p><p>杰富瑞（Jefferies）分析师Blayne Curtis对全年环比增长持怀疑态度："由于GB200芯片的推出进展缓慢，市场对7月季度的预期已较低，而新限制使增长更加艰难。"他估计超过一半的减记涉及成品或半成品库存，相当于约100亿美元收入无法确认，可能对7月季度造成50亿美元损失。</p><p>伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）分析师Stacy Rasgon强调："这些规则要求英伟达的非美国客户购买超过少量AI部件时需申请许可证。尽管最终可控，但处理许可的时间可能影响第二季度及下半年的业绩预期。"他此前认为规则实施概率较低，但H20事件后"不再如此确定"。</p><h2 id=\"id_1128424509\">期权策略构建示例</h2><p><strong>策略逻辑：</strong></p><p>预计股价短期内下跌或反弹空间有限，或短期内横盘震荡。</p><p><strong>构建合约：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖出行权价120美元的看涨期权（权利金约18美元）。</p></li><li><p>买入行权价125美元的看涨期权（权利金约8美元）。</p></li><li><p>净权利金收入：18 -8 = 10美元 。</p></li><li><p>到期日：2025年4月25日。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20250425 170.0 CALL\" title=\" \" class=\"immutable-element\"> </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250425 120.0 CALL SELL 1 | NVDA 20250425 125.0 CALL BUY 1\" title=\"$NVDA 跨價 250425 120C/125C$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$NVDA 跨價 250425 120C/125C$ </a></p></li><li><p>最大盈利：10美元（权利金净收入，当股价≤120美元时实现）。</p></li><li><p>最大亏损：490= 2美元 （当股价≥125美元时发生）。</p></li><li><p>盈亏平衡点：120.1美元（股价超过该点位时策略开始亏损）。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/94895d11b8e2215f204c24ec57f0883d\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1394\"/></p><p><strong>风险对冲：</strong></p><p>买入高行权价（125美元）Call限制最大亏损，将潜在损失锁定在490美元，优于裸卖Call的无限风险。</p><p><strong>风险提示：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>需关注半导体行业或英伟达突发利好可能导致股价突破盈亏平衡点。</p></li><li><p>波动率跳升：若IV因市场恐慌上升，期权权利金可能短期上涨，但策略已通过价差结构降低敏感性。</p></li><li><p>策略适用场景：预计英伟达股价在4月25日前维持震荡或小幅下跌，且波动率不会显著上升。</p></li></ul><p><em>免责声明：以上分析仅供参考，不构成投资建议。期权交易风险较高，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力谨慎决策。</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权女巫 | 英伟达股价短期可能横盘震荡或下跌，这个期权策略可从中获利</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | 英伟达股价短期可能横盘震荡或下跌，这个期权策略可从中获利\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-04-17 16:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周三 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> （NVDA）收于104.49美元，单日大跌6.87%，过去5日累计跌幅达8.61%，年初至今下跌22.19%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/616e4c15b90c409892da048fce825566\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3471431736\">英伟达坏消息不断：</h2><p>英伟达在周二晚向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的文件中披露，公司日前收到美国政府通知，H20芯片和达到H20内存带宽、互连带宽等的芯片向中国等国家和地区出口需要获得许可证。</p><p>因此，英伟达将在 2026 财年第一季度，即当前季度，为 H20 存货及被取消的订单计提 55 亿美元的费用。</p><h2 id=\"id_4013950368\">另一则消息：</h2><p>4月17日，应中国贸促会邀请，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>公司首席执行官黄仁勋抵达北京。三个月前，黄仁勋曾在华表态称，要继续与中国合作。</p><p>中国贸促会会长任鸿斌今天在北京与英伟达公司首席执行官黄仁勋举行会谈。这是黄仁勋时隔3个月再次到访北京。黄仁勋在会谈中表示，中国是英伟达非常重要的市场，希望将继续与中国合作。</p><h2 id=\"id_2909415661\">分析师观点：</h2><p>摩根士丹利分析师下调了英伟达的营收预期，理由是担心美国对中国的最新芯片出口限制对英伟达的影响，将比预期的“更具破坏性”。摩根士丹利表示，尽管对新的出口限制感到担忧，但英伟达的股票仍是他们在美股市场上的“首选”。大摩维持对英伟达162美元的目标价，指出该公司仍将受益于对人工智能硬件不断增长的需求。</p><p>美国银行全球研究分析师Vivek Arya指出，英伟达的限制措施将影响其供应商和客户的"生态系统"。受影响的供应商包括半导体设备制造商科磊（KLA）和ASML控股。荷兰ASML公司在公布低于分析师预期的第一季度订单后股价大跌。</p><p>Melius Research分析师Ben Reitzes写道："可以看出该公司已不指望未来能获得任何出口许可。"Reitzes预测，凭借大型科技客户的强劲支出，英伟达仍能在全年实现环比增长。"目前谷歌、亚马逊和Meta对英伟达芯片的资本支出似乎稳固，尽管微软暗示数据中心建设将大幅放缓，但其计算支出仍可能保持稳定。"</p><p>他认为，随着Blackwell系列产品的推出，英伟达在4月季度营收有望超预期，7月季度实现10%的环比增长，10月季度增长7%。</p><p>杰富瑞（Jefferies）分析师Blayne Curtis对全年环比增长持怀疑态度："由于GB200芯片的推出进展缓慢，市场对7月季度的预期已较低，而新限制使增长更加艰难。"他估计超过一半的减记涉及成品或半成品库存，相当于约100亿美元收入无法确认，可能对7月季度造成50亿美元损失。</p><p>伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）分析师Stacy Rasgon强调："这些规则要求英伟达的非美国客户购买超过少量AI部件时需申请许可证。尽管最终可控，但处理许可的时间可能影响第二季度及下半年的业绩预期。"他此前认为规则实施概率较低，但H20事件后"不再如此确定"。</p><h2 id=\"id_1128424509\">期权策略构建示例</h2><p><strong>策略逻辑：</strong></p><p>预计股价短期内下跌或反弹空间有限，或短期内横盘震荡。</p><p><strong>构建合约：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖出行权价120美元的看涨期权（权利金约18美元）。</p></li><li><p>买入行权价125美元的看涨期权（权利金约8美元）。</p></li><li><p>净权利金收入：18 -8 = 10美元 。</p></li><li><p>到期日：2025年4月25日。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20250425 170.0 CALL\" title=\" \" class=\"immutable-element\"> </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250425 120.0 CALL SELL 1 | NVDA 20250425 125.0 CALL BUY 1\" title=\"$NVDA 跨價 250425 120C/125C$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$NVDA 跨價 250425 120C/125C$ </a></p></li><li><p>最大盈利：10美元（权利金净收入，当股价≤120美元时实现）。</p></li><li><p>最大亏损：490= 2美元 （当股价≥125美元时发生）。</p></li><li><p>盈亏平衡点：120.1美元（股价超过该点位时策略开始亏损）。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/94895d11b8e2215f204c24ec57f0883d\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1394\"/></p><p><strong>风险对冲：</strong></p><p>买入高行权价（125美元）Call限制最大亏损，将潜在损失锁定在490美元，优于裸卖Call的无限风险。</p><p><strong>风险提示：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>需关注半导体行业或英伟达突发利好可能导致股价突破盈亏平衡点。</p></li><li><p>波动率跳升：若IV因市场恐慌上升，期权权利金可能短期上涨，但策略已通过价差结构降低敏感性。</p></li><li><p>策略适用场景：预计英伟达股价在4月25日前维持震荡或小幅下跌，且波动率不会显著上升。</p></li></ul><p><em>免责声明：以上分析仅供参考，不构成投资建议。期权交易风险较高，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力谨慎决策。</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6bfb4d51f1e7a4696ff500b8a34441b","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","NVDL":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141385375","content_text":"周三 英伟达 （NVDA）收于104.49美元，单日大跌6.87%，过去5日累计跌幅达8.61%，年初至今下跌22.19%。英伟达坏消息不断：英伟达在周二晚向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的文件中披露，公司日前收到美国政府通知，H20芯片和达到H20内存带宽、互连带宽等的芯片向中国等国家和地区出口需要获得许可证。因此，英伟达将在 2026 财年第一季度，即当前季度，为 H20 存货及被取消的订单计提 55 亿美元的费用。另一则消息：4月17日，应中国贸促会邀请，英伟达公司首席执行官黄仁勋抵达北京。三个月前，黄仁勋曾在华表态称，要继续与中国合作。中国贸促会会长任鸿斌今天在北京与英伟达公司首席执行官黄仁勋举行会谈。这是黄仁勋时隔3个月再次到访北京。黄仁勋在会谈中表示，中国是英伟达非常重要的市场，希望将继续与中国合作。分析师观点：摩根士丹利分析师下调了英伟达的营收预期，理由是担心美国对中国的最新芯片出口限制对英伟达的影响，将比预期的“更具破坏性”。摩根士丹利表示，尽管对新的出口限制感到担忧，但英伟达的股票仍是他们在美股市场上的“首选”。大摩维持对英伟达162美元的目标价，指出该公司仍将受益于对人工智能硬件不断增长的需求。美国银行全球研究分析师Vivek Arya指出，英伟达的限制措施将影响其供应商和客户的\"生态系统\"。受影响的供应商包括半导体设备制造商科磊（KLA）和ASML控股。荷兰ASML公司在公布低于分析师预期的第一季度订单后股价大跌。Melius Research分析师Ben Reitzes写道：\"可以看出该公司已不指望未来能获得任何出口许可。\"Reitzes预测，凭借大型科技客户的强劲支出，英伟达仍能在全年实现环比增长。\"目前谷歌、亚马逊和Meta对英伟达芯片的资本支出似乎稳固，尽管微软暗示数据中心建设将大幅放缓，但其计算支出仍可能保持稳定。\"他认为，随着Blackwell系列产品的推出，英伟达在4月季度营收有望超预期，7月季度实现10%的环比增长，10月季度增长7%。杰富瑞（Jefferies）分析师Blayne Curtis对全年环比增长持怀疑态度：\"由于GB200芯片的推出进展缓慢，市场对7月季度的预期已较低，而新限制使增长更加艰难。\"他估计超过一半的减记涉及成品或半成品库存，相当于约100亿美元收入无法确认，可能对7月季度造成50亿美元损失。伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）分析师Stacy Rasgon强调：\"这些规则要求英伟达的非美国客户购买超过少量AI部件时需申请许可证。尽管最终可控，但处理许可的时间可能影响第二季度及下半年的业绩预期。\"他此前认为规则实施概率较低，但H20事件后\"不再如此确定\"。期权策略构建示例策略逻辑：预计股价短期内下跌或反弹空间有限，或短期内横盘震荡。构建合约：卖出行权价120美元的看涨期权（权利金约18美元）。买入行权价125美元的看涨期权（权利金约8美元）。净权利金收入：18 -8 = 10美元 。到期日：2025年4月25日。 $NVDA 跨價 250425 120C/125C$ 最大盈利：10美元（权利金净收入，当股价≤120美元时实现）。最大亏损：490= 2美元 （当股价≥125美元时发生）。盈亏平衡点：120.1美元（股价超过该点位时策略开始亏损）。风险对冲：买入高行权价（125美元）Call限制最大亏损，将潜在损失锁定在490美元，优于裸卖Call的无限风险。风险提示：需关注半导体行业或英伟达突发利好可能导致股价突破盈亏平衡点。波动率跳升：若IV因市场恐慌上升，期权权利金可能短期上涨，但策略已通过价差结构降低敏感性。策略适用场景：预计英伟达股价在4月25日前维持震荡或小幅下跌，且波动率不会显著上升。免责声明：以上分析仅供参考，不构成投资建议。期权交易风险较高，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力谨慎决策。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVD":1.1,"NVDA":1.1,"NVDL":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":402492228891320,"gmtCreate":1739283200063,"gmtModify":1739284536417,"author":{"id":"3573718921880890","authorId":"3573718921880890","name":"Zhengwei Cai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10b3b6e81216cf964b9d3d0a924f5b8c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573718921880890","idStr":"3573718921880890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABX\">$GRANITESHARES 2X LONG BABA DAILY ETF(BABX)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABX\">$GRANITESHARES 2X LONG BABA DAILY ETF(BABX)$ </a> ","text":"$GRANITESHARES 2X LONG BABA DAILY ETF(BABX)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8abe4b78a93e7188e275956c152276","width":"978","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/402492228891320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}