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- XiushanWuXiushanWu
  ·2022-01-06
  赶紧给我崩
  巴菲特指标达创纪录211%，再次拉响崩盘警告
  巴菲特青睐的市场指标本周攀升至211%的创纪录高位，再次为美国股市敲响了警钟，预示着崩盘可能即将到来。　　所谓“巴菲特指标”，是指美股总市值与美国GDP之比，被投资者和研究人士广泛用来衡量美股是否过热。　　巴菲特补充说，当该指标在互联网泡沫期间飙升至创纪录高点时，这应该是一个“非常强烈的警告信号”，预示着即将到来的崩盘。　　巴菲特指标并不是唯一预测美股即将发生崩盘的。
  巴菲特指标达创纪录211%，再次拉响崩盘警告
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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n巴菲特指标达创纪录211%，再次拉响崩盘警告\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-06 10:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-06/doc-ikyamrmz3417330.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>巴菲特青睐的市场指标本周攀升至211%的创纪录高位，再次为美国股市敲响了警钟，预示着崩盘可能即将到来。所谓“巴菲特指标”，是指美股总市值与美国GDP之比，被投资者和研究人士广泛用来衡量美股是否过热。巴菲特曾将这一指标形容为“任何时刻衡量估值水平的最佳单一指标”。威尔希尔5000总市场指数（Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index）周二触及48.99万亿美元的盘中新高，而美国...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-06/doc-ikyamrmz3417330.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93332ed895aeaf09815c4627957afbe1","relate_stocks":{"BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-06/doc-ikyamrmz3417330.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2201256891","content_text":"巴菲特青睐的市场指标本周攀升至211%的创纪录高位，再次为美国股市敲响了警钟，预示着崩盘可能即将到来。所谓“巴菲特指标”，是指美股总市值与美国GDP之比，被投资者和研究人士广泛用来衡量美股是否过热。巴菲特曾将这一指标形容为“任何时刻衡量估值水平的最佳单一指标”。威尔希尔5000总市场指数（Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index）周二触及48.99万亿美元的盘中新高，而美国去年第三季度GDP为23.20万亿美元，两者之比达到211%，远高于2020年第二季度的187%，，当时美国疫情正全面爆发，GDP下降了约16%。2001年，巴菲特在《财富》（Fortune）杂志的一篇文章中称赞了以他的名字命名的指标，称其“可能是任何时刻衡量估值水平的最佳单一指标”。巴菲特补充说，当该指标在互联网泡沫期间飙升至创纪录高点时，这应该是一个“非常强烈的警告信号”，预示着即将到来的崩盘。此外他还说，在这一指标接近200%时购买股票的投资者是在“玩火”。在全球金融危机爆发前，该指标也曾大幅上升，使之成为预测经济衰退的有用工具。而在这两次崩盘前，该指标都没有超过150%。不过，该指标远非完美。例如，它将上一季度的GDP与今天的股市价值进行比较。GDP也不包括海外收入，而美国企业的市值反映了其国内和国际业务的价值。此外，自2020年初以来，新冠大流行扰乱了供应链，抑制了经济活动，压低了GDP。美国政府和美联储采取了前所未有的措施来刺激经济，支持受影响的个人和企业，在此过程中推高了资产价格。这些因素可能人为地推高了巴菲特指数的读数。巴菲特指标并不是唯一预测美股即将发生崩盘的。电影《大空头》的原型人物迈克尔-伯里（Michael Burry）过去一年多次发出警告，称一场“所有崩盘之母”的大崩盘即将到来。传奇投资者、GMO联合创始人杰里米-格兰瑟姆（Jeremy Grantham）也对一个“史诗般的泡沫”敲响了警钟，并预计这个泡沫将以惊人的速度破裂。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}