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芥菜大师2019

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- 芥菜大师2019芥菜大师2019
  ·10-06
  只有20%了还超配
  还有上涨空间！高盛：上调中国股市至“超配”，预计还能涨15-20%
  高盛将MSCI中国的的目标价从66提高到84，将沪深300指数的目标价从4000提高到4600。行业配置方面，高盛将保险和其他金融上调至超配，金属和矿业上调至平配，将电信服务下调至低配。
  还有上涨空间！高盛：上调中国股市至“超配”，预计还能涨15-20%
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- 芥菜大师2019芥菜大师2019
  ·09-27
  昨天卖的，否则今天还能翻两倍啊，疯狂。
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- 芥菜大师2019芥菜大师2019
  ·2020-10-12
  蚊子腿也是肉啊新手我很满意 😂。目前共中15股，刚打过两次。
  616 评论
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- 芥菜大师2019芥菜大师2019
  ·2020-10-10
  $洪恩教育(IH)$中途睡醒就卖了五谷丰登
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- 芥菜大师2019芥菜大师2019
  ·2020-10-01
  $Yalla Group(YALA)$😂
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justify;\">高盛将MSCI中国的的目标价从66提高到84，将沪深300指数的目标价从4000提高到4600，分别基于12.0倍和14.2倍的远期估值（之前分别为10.5倍和12.8倍）。这意味着从当前水平来看，总回报率有大约15-18%的上升空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛综合估值、盈利、仓位等因素得出了上述结论：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先，估值从8.4倍的极低水平恢复后，仍然低于中位数11.3倍的远期收益，比5年均值12.1倍低0.4个标准差。如果经济支持政策继续跟进，则还有进一步估值恢复的潜力。从经验上看，高盛注意到财政宽松与估值扩张有很好的相关性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其次，市场的反弹可以被视为定价出尾部风险。高盛的股利贴现模型（DDM）显示，股市的隐含股本成本（ICOE）最近处于较高水平，表明市场对增长下行风险的担忧。有力的一系列政策措施减少了这种风险，应该会导致ICOE降低。这支持了进一步估值恢复的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第三，如果经济对政策做出反应，盈利增长可能会从目前保守的预测中改善。盈利的改善也倾向于支持估值扩张。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最后，仓位轻，且对中国股市的展望变化指向了进一步的再风险化。对冲基金迅速增加了对中国的投资，但仍然处于其5年范围的55百分位。作为参考，在2023年1月反弹的顶峰时期，它们达到了91百分位的顶峰。截至8月底，共同基金对中国的低配程度为310个基点，市场的急剧变动将增加这一低配比。在岸投资者也开始在低水平上增加保证金融资，呼应了2015年政策支持时风险偏好的上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从更广泛的角度来看，日本股市在其近30年的熊市中出现了7次50-140%的反弹，这表明有吸引力的投资机会可以与具有挑战性的宏观背景并存。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1678927798\">高盛将保险和其他金融上调至超配</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛将对中国的配置上调至超配，并表示上调是战术性的：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上调反映了由政策驱动及其对情绪和信心的反射性影响可能带来的进一步收益潜力，但需要持续的实施证据以及在解决宏观挑战方面的进展，才能采取更有信心的长期立场。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于行业配置，高盛将保险和其他金融上调至超配，金属和矿业上调至平配，将电信服务下调至低配：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鉴于资本市场活动增加和资产表现改善，将保险和其他金融（例如，券商、交易所、投资公司）上调至超配。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，通过将金属和矿业上调至市场权重，增加了周期性敞口，这一调整是由中国房地产市场的措施和潜在的财政刺激驱动的，也是作为对地缘政治风险的对冲。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相反，由于其防御性质、估值上升以及对利率的敏感度较低，我们将电信服务下调至低配。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛维持对互联网和娱乐、技术硬件和半导体、消费者零售和服务以及日用品的超配立场，高盛认为，这些行业有望从宽松的政策中受益，提供结构性增长机会（如人工智能和中国独特的消费趋势），并且对较低的利率更敏感，估值从合理到有吸引力等。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n还有上涨空间！高盛：上调中国股市至“超配”，预计还能涨15-20%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-06 17:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3729551><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛将MSCI中国的的目标价从66提高到84，将沪深300指数的目标价从4000提高到4600。行业配置方面，高盛将保险和其他金融上调至超配，金属和矿业上调至平配，将电信服务下调至低配。中国股市史诗级大涨后，海内外机构看涨情绪依然浓厚。10月5日，高盛在最新报告中上调中国股市至“超配”，预计还能涨15-20%。高盛将MSCI中国的的目标价从66提高到84，将沪深300指数的目标价从4000提高到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3729551\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1f949b79b7dfeba43e24421148e0a4e","relate_stocks":{"YINN":"三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3729551","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2473156070","content_text":"高盛将MSCI中国的的目标价从66提高到84，将沪深300指数的目标价从4000提高到4600。行业配置方面，高盛将保险和其他金融上调至超配，金属和矿业上调至平配，将电信服务下调至低配。中国股市史诗级大涨后，海内外机构看涨情绪依然浓厚。10月5日，高盛在最新报告中上调中国股市至“超配”，预计还能涨15-20%。高盛将MSCI中国的的目标价从66提高到84，将沪深300指数的目标价从4000提高到4600。行业配置方面，高盛将保险和其他金融上调至超配，金属和矿业上调至平配，将电信服务下调至低配。估计还有15-20%的上涨空间高盛认为，中国股市仍有进一步的上涨潜力，估计还有15-20%的上涨空间：目前还没有足够的信息来断言结构性牛市已经开始，因为宏观挑战依然严峻，财政政策的规模和轮廓也尚未公布。然而，有充分的理由认为股市会有额外的收益。高盛将MSCI中国的的目标价从66提高到84，将沪深300指数的目标价从4000提高到4600，分别基于12.0倍和14.2倍的远期估值（之前分别为10.5倍和12.8倍）。这意味着从当前水平来看，总回报率有大约15-18%的上升空间。高盛综合估值、盈利、仓位等因素得出了上述结论：首先，估值从8.4倍的极低水平恢复后，仍然低于中位数11.3倍的远期收益，比5年均值12.1倍低0.4个标准差。如果经济支持政策继续跟进，则还有进一步估值恢复的潜力。从经验上看，高盛注意到财政宽松与估值扩张有很好的相关性。其次，市场的反弹可以被视为定价出尾部风险。高盛的股利贴现模型（DDM）显示，股市的隐含股本成本（ICOE）最近处于较高水平，表明市场对增长下行风险的担忧。有力的一系列政策措施减少了这种风险，应该会导致ICOE降低。这支持了进一步估值恢复的预期。第三，如果经济对政策做出反应，盈利增长可能会从目前保守的预测中改善。盈利的改善也倾向于支持估值扩张。最后，仓位轻，且对中国股市的展望变化指向了进一步的再风险化。对冲基金迅速增加了对中国的投资，但仍然处于其5年范围的55百分位。作为参考，在2023年1月反弹的顶峰时期，它们达到了91百分位的顶峰。截至8月底，共同基金对中国的低配程度为310个基点，市场的急剧变动将增加这一低配比。在岸投资者也开始在低水平上增加保证金融资，呼应了2015年政策支持时风险偏好的上升。从更广泛的角度来看，日本股市在其近30年的熊市中出现了7次50-140%的反弹，这表明有吸引力的投资机会可以与具有挑战性的宏观背景并存。高盛将保险和其他金融上调至超配高盛将对中国的配置上调至超配，并表示上调是战术性的：上调反映了由政策驱动及其对情绪和信心的反射性影响可能带来的进一步收益潜力，但需要持续的实施证据以及在解决宏观挑战方面的进展，才能采取更有信心的长期立场。对于行业配置，高盛将保险和其他金融上调至超配，金属和矿业上调至平配，将电信服务下调至低配：鉴于资本市场活动增加和资产表现改善，将保险和其他金融（例如，券商、交易所、投资公司）上调至超配。此外，通过将金属和矿业上调至市场权重，增加了周期性敞口，这一调整是由中国房地产市场的措施和潜在的财政刺激驱动的，也是作为对地缘政治风险的对冲。相反，由于其防御性质、估值上升以及对利率的敏感度较低，我们将电信服务下调至低配。高盛维持对互联网和娱乐、技术硬件和半导体、消费者零售和服务以及日用品的超配立场，高盛认为，这些行业有望从宽松的政策中受益，提供结构性增长机会（如人工智能和中国独特的消费趋势），并且对较低的利率更敏感，估值从合理到有吸引力等。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354059823370344,"gmtCreate":1727448554518,"gmtModify":1727450078995,"author":{"id":"3558152313974201","authorId":"3558152313974201","name":"芥菜大师2019","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fc00b75cecb5579702455e5f5033855","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558152313974201","authorIdStr":"3558152313974201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"昨天卖的，否则今天还能翻两倍啊，疯狂。","listText":"昨天卖的，否则今天还能翻两倍啊，疯狂。","text":"昨天卖的，否则今天还能翻两倍啊，疯狂。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e8d2f9c415ed1da570c7516536f3baf","width":"927","height":"1599"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354059823370344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309077635,"gmtCreate":1602511072527,"gmtModify":1703826791528,"author":{"id":"3558152313974201","authorId":"3558152313974201","name":"芥菜大师2019","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fc00b75cecb5579702455e5f5033855","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558152313974201","authorIdStr":"3558152313974201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"蚊子腿也是肉啊 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