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- 宝爷_7909宝爷_7909
  ·2023-11-21
  唯有再发债
  NIO Stock: Buy the Boom or Sell the Bust?
  NIO stock is currently trading at a discount, but profitability is sparking debate on its future prospects. Where can it go from here?
  NIO Stock: Buy the Boom or Sell the Bust?
  798 评论
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- 宝爷_7909宝爷_7909
  ·2023-11-14
  $蔚来(NIO)$ 为什么要设文教授做独立董事？谁知道
  1,112 评论
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- 宝爷_7909宝爷_7909
  ·2023-10-10
  $黄金2312(GC2312)$ 哎，好好的空头，给这场中东之战搞得又涨[流泪]
  979 评论
  1
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- 宝爷_7909宝爷_7909
  ·2023-08-24
  $英伟达(NVDA)$ 大佬们怎么看？何去何从？
  1,182 评论
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- 宝爷_7909宝爷_7909
  ·2022-12-15
  哈哈哈😁
  特斯拉盘前跌超3%，马斯克出售2200万股特斯拉股票
  12月15日周四，$特斯拉(TSLA)$盘前跌超3%，马斯克于12月12日-14日出售2200万股特斯拉股票，总价值约35.8亿美元。
  特斯拉盘前跌超3%，马斯克出售2200万股特斯拉股票
  971 评论
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- 宝爷_7909宝爷_7909
  ·2022-09-26
  战斗打响了[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑]
  ETF流向｜抄底了！资金借道欧洲相关ETF逆势进场，半导体板块触底在即？
  一、市场概览（9月19日-9月23日）在全球央行竞相加息的背景下，经济衰退担忧愈发强烈，金融市场上的抛售浪潮席卷全球，上周美股三大指数连续四个交易日下跌。道指一周累计下跌4%，标普500指数一周累计下
  ETF流向｜抄底了！资金借道欧洲相关ETF逆势进场，半导体板块触底在即？
  1,420 评论
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- 宝爷_7909宝爷_7909
  ·2022-08-18
  收紧
  鸽派？美联储会议纪要：年内首提“过度紧缩”风险
  其实，美联储会议纪要里还藏了几只“鹰”。
  鸽派？美联储会议纪要：年内首提“过度紧缩”风险
  1,835 评论
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Where can it go from here?","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Nio</strong> stock boasts long-term potential, but profitability remains uncertain.</p></li></ul><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Key risks include the company’s cash burn rate, dilution, and competitive threats</p></li><li><p>Patience is required to ride out volatility, but there is huge upside potential if the company executes.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f283dcf01ba7103e8690f23edfaaf8f\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"/></p><p>Source: Michael Vi / Shutterstock.com</p><p>Much like many EV startups, <strong>Nio</strong> (NYSE:<strong>NIO</strong>) has sparked heated debate. The company has been burning billions of dollars every year, with revenue declining the past two quarters as losses mount.</p><p>Meanwhile, the stock has plunged nearly 88% from early-2021 highs. Many wonder if Nio will stage a massive turnaround as revenue and earnings are expected to resume growing in coming quarters while losses narrow.</p><p>The key question for most investors is long-term viability. In other words, will Nio survive its cash burn long enough to deliver huge returns? Or will it flame out like other failed EV ventures? Let’s examine Nio’s cash position first.</p><h2 id=\"id_3017977945\">How Much of a Concern Is Cash Burn and Dilution for NIO Stock?</h2><p>Nio has around $4 billion in cash, roughly matching its debt levels. At the company’s current burn rate, that cash may only last two years. However, cash losses should be much lower over time. Additionally, as interest rates likely fall over the next year and EV sales potentially pick up, losses could be trimmed considerably in that timeframe.</p><p>Thus, I believe Nio can survive three or more years by cutting losses and taking on more debt. Beyond cash burn, share dilution is a valid concern, as many EV startups issue shares to fund losses.</p><p>However, Nio has been an outlier, with minimal dilution since early 2021 after considerable dilution in 2020. Could the company heavily start tapping equity markets again? Sure. But I don’t think Nio needs to dilute shareholders too much to fund losses as sales ramp up and rates decline.</p><p>Nonetheless, profitability remains about three years away, so there is a lot of uncertainty on this front. </p><h2 id=\"id_4224859450\">Does NIO Stock Offer Good Value?</h2><p>Nio’s 2032 profits are forecast to come in at $2.17 per share, putting the forward price-earnings ratio (2032 earnings) at just 3.5-times. This is quite decent value, and if you have a very long-term mindset, this might be a bet worth making.</p><p>Meanwhile, I don’t expect major Chinese EV inroads into the U.S. market, so Nio will likely carve out a niche in Europe and the Middle East with its battery-swappable EVs. Analysts estimate sales could still quintuple by 2032. Paying 1.6-times sales for this year’s earnings seems justified.</p><p>In my opinion, Nio is positioned for long-term gains and offers more value than most of its competitors if you look at the very long-term. Naturally, it could be a value trap, as there is no guarantee that Nio will execute on any of these long-term expectations.</p><h2 id=\"id_2317812611\">Nio’s Technology Could Boost Its Niche Position</h2><p>Looking past the numbers, Nio has technology that could cement its leadership in China’s premium EV segment. Its competitive edge includes the following:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>A battery swapping model avoids long charging waits, providing a superior user experience. Nio is far ahead of its competitors in this regard.</p></li><li><p>Nio’s bold designs and premium interiors differentiate the company stylistically from budget Chinese EVs. Brand prestige aids pricing power.</p></li><li><p>In-house manufacturing of key technologies like the NIO Pilot advanced driver assistance allows rapid iteration.</p></li><li><p>NOMI AI in-car assistant offers intuitive voice controls and represents a key technology moat.</p></li><li><p>Nio is also pioneering ownership models like battery subscriptions purchased separately from vehicles, which can provide some sticky revenue.</p></li></ul><p>In my opinion, Nio’s technology can sustain its momentum despite economic challenges. Of course, execution risks exist, but the company’s tech foundations look promising.</p><h2 id=\"id_1421076554\">Macro Trends Seem Supportive of NIO Stock Long-Term</h2><p>Stepping back, China EV sales are projected to grow at a 18.4% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. Nio merely needs modest share gains to ride that vast wave. Government EV incentives should also provide tailwinds as the economy improves.</p><p>Of course, near-term volatility remains likely. China’s economy faces headwinds, and EV sales have softened recently. Still, looking five to 10 years out, Nio has ingredients for potential upside if the company executes well.</p><h2 id=\"id_1543952644\">The Bottom Line</h2><p>Dilution worries me the most when it comes to NIO stock. With three or more years until the EV maker becomes profitable, it will likely be a turbulent ride. But at current prices, Nio appears reasonably-priced with a margin of safety.</p><p>Realistically, buying NIO stock as a long-term holding seems to be the only way to profit. Macro trends look favorable long-term. So, bargain hunters with a high-risk tolerance may be rewarded for buying NIO stock at depressed levels.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Stock: Buy the Boom or Sell the Bust?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Stock: Buy the Boom or Sell the Bust?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-21 21:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/11/nio-stock-buy-the-boom-or-sell-the-bust/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nio stock boasts long-term potential, but profitability remains uncertain.Key risks include the company’s cash burn rate, dilution, and competitive threatsPatience is required to ride out volatility, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/11/nio-stock-buy-the-boom-or-sell-the-bust/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/11/nio-stock-buy-the-boom-or-sell-the-bust/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2384393811","content_text":"Nio stock boasts long-term potential, but profitability remains uncertain.Key risks include the company’s cash burn rate, dilution, and competitive threatsPatience is required to ride out volatility, but there is huge upside potential if the company executes.Source: Michael Vi / Shutterstock.comMuch like many EV startups, Nio (NYSE:NIO) has sparked heated debate. The company has been burning billions of dollars every year, with revenue declining the past two quarters as losses mount.Meanwhile, the stock has plunged nearly 88% from early-2021 highs. Many wonder if Nio will stage a massive turnaround as revenue and earnings are expected to resume growing in coming quarters while losses narrow.The key question for most investors is long-term viability. In other words, will Nio survive its cash burn long enough to deliver huge returns? Or will it flame out like other failed EV ventures? Let’s examine Nio’s cash position first.How Much of a Concern Is Cash Burn and Dilution for NIO Stock?Nio has around $4 billion in cash, roughly matching its debt levels. At the company’s current burn rate, that cash may only last two years. However, cash losses should be much lower over time. Additionally, as interest rates likely fall over the next year and EV sales potentially pick up, losses could be trimmed considerably in that timeframe.Thus, I believe Nio can survive three or more years by cutting losses and taking on more debt. Beyond cash burn, share dilution is a valid concern, as many EV startups issue shares to fund losses.However, Nio has been an outlier, with minimal dilution since early 2021 after considerable dilution in 2020. Could the company heavily start tapping equity markets again? Sure. But I don’t think Nio needs to dilute shareholders too much to fund losses as sales ramp up and rates decline.Nonetheless, profitability remains about three years away, so there is a lot of uncertainty on this front. Does NIO Stock Offer Good Value?Nio’s 2032 profits are forecast to come in at $2.17 per share, putting the forward price-earnings ratio (2032 earnings) at just 3.5-times. This is quite decent value, and if you have a very long-term mindset, this might be a bet worth making.Meanwhile, I don’t expect major Chinese EV inroads into the U.S. market, so Nio will likely carve out a niche in Europe and the Middle East with its battery-swappable EVs. Analysts estimate sales could still quintuple by 2032. Paying 1.6-times sales for this year’s earnings seems justified.In my opinion, Nio is positioned for long-term gains and offers more value than most of its competitors if you look at the very long-term. Naturally, it could be a value trap, as there is no guarantee that Nio will execute on any of these long-term expectations.Nio’s Technology Could Boost Its Niche PositionLooking past the numbers, Nio has technology that could cement its leadership in China’s premium EV segment. Its competitive edge includes the following:A battery swapping model avoids long charging waits, providing a superior user experience. Nio is far ahead of its competitors in this regard.Nio’s bold designs and premium interiors differentiate the company stylistically from budget Chinese EVs. Brand prestige aids pricing power.In-house manufacturing of key technologies like the NIO Pilot advanced driver assistance allows rapid iteration.NOMI AI in-car assistant offers intuitive voice controls and represents a key technology moat.Nio is also pioneering ownership models like battery subscriptions purchased separately from vehicles, which can provide some sticky revenue.In my opinion, Nio’s technology can sustain its momentum despite economic challenges. Of course, execution risks exist, but the company’s tech foundations look promising.Macro Trends Seem Supportive of NIO Stock Long-TermStepping back, China EV sales are projected to grow at a 18.4% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. Nio merely needs modest share gains to ride that vast wave. Government EV incentives should also provide tailwinds as the economy improves.Of course, near-term volatility remains likely. China’s economy faces headwinds, and EV sales have softened recently. Still, looking five to 10 years out, Nio has ingredients for potential upside if the company executes well.The Bottom LineDilution worries me the most when it comes to NIO stock. With three or more years until the EV maker becomes profitable, it will likely be a turbulent ride. But at current prices, Nio appears reasonably-priced with a margin of safety.Realistically, buying NIO stock as a long-term holding seems to be the only way to profit. Macro trends look favorable long-term. So, bargain hunters with a high-risk tolerance may be rewarded for buying NIO stock at depressed levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":241382708822104,"gmtCreate":1699959639511,"gmtModify":1699959640573,"author":{"id":"3557141256992492","authorId":"3557141256992492","name":"宝爷_7909","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00075fad016a192fbc5c30ecbc33ab63","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557141256992492","authorIdStr":"3557141256992492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a>为什么要设文教授做独立董事？谁知道","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a>为什么要设文教授做独立董事？谁知道","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 为什么要设文教授做独立董事？谁知道","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/241382708822104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":228677501018192,"gmtCreate":1696869368712,"gmtModify":1696869369780,"author":{"id":"3557141256992492","authorId":"3557141256992492","name":"宝爷_7909","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00075fad016a192fbc5c30ecbc33ab63","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557141256992492","authorIdStr":"3557141256992492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GC2312\">$黄金2312(GC2312)$ &nbsp;</a>哎，好好的空头，给这场中东之战搞得又涨[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GC2312\">$黄金2312(GC2312)$ &nbsp;</a>哎，好好的空头，给这场中东之战搞得又涨[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"$黄金2312(GC2312)$ 哎，好好的空头，给这场中东之战搞得又涨[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/228677501018192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":212358734213208,"gmtCreate":1692885204448,"gmtModify":1692885500802,"author":{"id":"3557141256992492","authorId":"3557141256992492","name":"宝爷_7909","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00075fad016a192fbc5c30ecbc33ab63","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557141256992492","authorIdStr":"3557141256992492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>大佬们怎么看？何去何从？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>大佬们怎么看？何去何从？","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 大佬们怎么看？何去何从？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670dfaf370f54eb4ded82726e0c317b9","width":"1083","height":"1625"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/212358734213208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623101220,"gmtCreate":1671097076360,"gmtModify":1671097287116,"author":{"id":"3557141256992492","authorId":"3557141256992492","name":"宝爷_7909","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00075fad016a192fbc5c30ecbc33ab63","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557141256992492","authorIdStr":"3557141256992492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈哈😁","listText":"哈哈哈😁","text":"哈哈哈😁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623101220","repostId":"1116993448","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116993448","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1671094999,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116993448?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-15 17:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉盘前跌超3%，马斯克出售2200万股特斯拉股票","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116993448","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月15日周四，$特斯拉(TSLA)$盘前跌超3%，马斯克于12月12日-14日出售2200万股特斯拉股票，总价值约35.8亿美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月15日周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前跌超3%，马斯克于12月12日-14日出售2200万股特斯拉股票，总价值约35.8亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98317db11c795c4b2a942b2fdb3a2826\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉盘前跌超3%，马斯克出售2200万股特斯拉股票</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉盘前跌超3%，马斯克出售2200万股特斯拉股票\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-15 17:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>12月15日周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前跌超3%，马斯克于12月12日-14日出售2200万股特斯拉股票，总价值约35.8亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98317db11c795c4b2a942b2fdb3a2826\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9749762c5ee11a52030b4c66a89c8026","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116993448","content_text":"12月15日周四，特斯拉盘前跌超3%，马斯克于12月12日-14日出售2200万股特斯拉股票，总价值约35.8亿美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":661461578,"gmtCreate":1664189851795,"gmtModify":1664190289757,"author":{"id":"3557141256992492","authorId":"3557141256992492","name":"宝爷_7909","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00075fad016a192fbc5c30ecbc33ab63","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557141256992492","authorIdStr":"3557141256992492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"战斗打响了[贱笑]&nbsp;[贱笑]&nbsp;[贱笑]&nbsp;","listText":"战斗打响了[贱笑]&nbsp;[贱笑]&nbsp;[贱笑]&nbsp;","text":"战斗打响了[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661461578","repostId":"1163183646","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163183646","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664174451,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163183646?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-26 14:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"ETF流向｜抄底了！资金借道欧洲相关ETF逆势进场，半导体板块触底在即？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163183646","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"一、市场概览（9月19日-9月23日）在全球央行竞相加息的背景下，经济衰退担忧愈发强烈，金融市场上的抛售浪潮席卷全球，上周美股三大指数连续四个交易日下跌。道指一周累计下跌4%，标普500指数一周累计下","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>一、市场概览（9月19日-9月23日）</b></p><p>在全球央行竞相加息的背景下，经济衰退担忧愈发强烈，金融市场上的抛售浪潮席卷全球，上周美股三大指数连续四个交易日下跌。道指一周累计下跌4%，标普500指数一周累计下跌4.65%，纳指一周累计下跌5.07%。与此同时，华尔街大行纷纷下调标普500指数预期，也反映出美股市场面临严峻形势。</p><p><b>二、上周ETF流入Top 10</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b365cb1bcf41a1cca52be06750b08311\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>数据来源：彭博</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ITOT\">iShares Core S&amp;P Total US Stock Market ETF</a>在上周净流入TOP10中排名第一，流入金额为17.65亿美元；值得注意的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBEU\">JPMorgan BetaBuilders Europe ETF</a>上周出现5.31亿美元资金净流入，位列TOP10排名第五位。</p><p>行业方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IGV\">iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMH\">VanEck Semiconductor ETF</a>上周分别出现3.59亿美元、3.01亿美元资金净流入，表明投资者对软件、半导体行业热情凸显。</p><p><b>三、上周ETF流出Top 10</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/231ffeaa3518ca4f024e4a6c527d5895\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>数据来源：彭博</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VO\">Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VB\">Vanguard Small-Cap ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VBR\">Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF</a>上周分别出现18.83亿美元、14.88亿美元、10.14亿美元资金净流出，投资者或对中小盘股开始展开抛售。此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUG\">Vanguard Growth ETF</a>出现8.62亿美元净流出，反映投资者对成长型股票失去信心。</p><p>行业方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLF\">Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XBI\">SPDR S&amp;P Biotech ETF</a>上周分别出现9.39亿美元、8.24亿美元资金净流出，进一步说明投资者对金融、生物医药行业的后市表示担忧。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ETF流向｜抄底了！资金借道欧洲相关ETF逆势进场，半导体板块触底在即？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nETF流向｜抄底了！资金借道欧洲相关ETF逆势进场，半导体板块触底在即？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-26 14:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><b>一、市场概览（9月19日-9月23日）</b></p><p>在全球央行竞相加息的背景下，经济衰退担忧愈发强烈，金融市场上的抛售浪潮席卷全球，上周美股三大指数连续四个交易日下跌。道指一周累计下跌4%，标普500指数一周累计下跌4.65%，纳指一周累计下跌5.07%。与此同时，华尔街大行纷纷下调标普500指数预期，也反映出美股市场面临严峻形势。</p><p><b>二、上周ETF流入Top 10</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b365cb1bcf41a1cca52be06750b08311\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>数据来源：彭博</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ITOT\">iShares Core S&amp;P Total US Stock Market ETF</a>在上周净流入TOP10中排名第一，流入金额为17.65亿美元；值得注意的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBEU\">JPMorgan BetaBuilders Europe ETF</a>上周出现5.31亿美元资金净流入，位列TOP10排名第五位。</p><p>行业方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IGV\">iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMH\">VanEck Semiconductor ETF</a>上周分别出现3.59亿美元、3.01亿美元资金净流入，表明投资者对软件、半导体行业热情凸显。</p><p><b>三、上周ETF流出Top 10</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/231ffeaa3518ca4f024e4a6c527d5895\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>数据来源：彭博</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VO\">Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VB\">Vanguard Small-Cap ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VBR\">Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF</a>上周分别出现18.83亿美元、14.88亿美元、10.14亿美元资金净流出，投资者或对中小盘股开始展开抛售。此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUG\">Vanguard Growth ETF</a>出现8.62亿美元净流出，反映投资者对成长型股票失去信心。</p><p>行业方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLF\">Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XBI\">SPDR S&amp;P Biotech ETF</a>上周分别出现9.39亿美元、8.24亿美元资金净流出，进一步说明投资者对金融、生物医药行业的后市表示担忧。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dd80bc4b554e53e2715e5a7fb15cca2","relate_stocks":{"VB":"小型股指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","XBI":"SPDR S&P Biotech ETF","IGV":"北美软件ETF-iShares","VBR":"Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF","XLF":"金融ETF","BBEU":"JPMorgan BetaBuilders Europe ETF","ITOT":"安硕核心标普全美股市ETF-iShares","VO":"Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF","VUG":"成长股指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","SMH":"半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163183646","content_text":"一、市场概览（9月19日-9月23日）在全球央行竞相加息的背景下，经济衰退担忧愈发强烈，金融市场上的抛售浪潮席卷全球，上周美股三大指数连续四个交易日下跌。道指一周累计下跌4%，标普500指数一周累计下跌4.65%，纳指一周累计下跌5.07%。与此同时，华尔街大行纷纷下调标普500指数预期，也反映出美股市场面临严峻形势。二、上周ETF流入Top 10数据来源：彭博iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Market ETF在上周净流入TOP10中排名第一，流入金额为17.65亿美元；值得注意的是，JPMorgan BetaBuilders Europe ETF上周出现5.31亿美元资金净流入，位列TOP10排名第五位。行业方面，iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF、VanEck Semiconductor ETF上周分别出现3.59亿美元、3.01亿美元资金净流入，表明投资者对软件、半导体行业热情凸显。三、上周ETF流出Top 10数据来源：彭博Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF、Vanguard Small-Cap ETF、Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF上周分别出现18.83亿美元、14.88亿美元、10.14亿美元资金净流出，投资者或对中小盘股开始展开抛售。此外，Vanguard Growth ETF出现8.62亿美元净流出，反映投资者对成长型股票失去信心。行业方面，Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund、SPDR S&P Biotech ETF上周分别出现9.39亿美元、8.24亿美元资金净流出，进一步说明投资者对金融、生物医药行业的后市表示担忧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687350988,"gmtCreate":1660781084749,"gmtModify":1660785613483,"author":{"id":"3557141256992492","authorId":"3557141256992492","name":"宝爷_7909","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00075fad016a192fbc5c30ecbc33ab63","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557141256992492","authorIdStr":"3557141256992492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"收紧","listText":"收紧","text":"收紧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687350988","repostId":"2260735978","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2260735978","pubTimestamp":1660778456,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2260735978?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-18 07:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"鸽派？美联储会议纪要：年内首提“过度紧缩”风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2260735978","media":"金十数据","summary":"其实，美联储会议纪要里还藏了几只“鹰”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>其实，美联储会议纪要里还藏了几只“鹰”。</blockquote><p>北京时间周四凌晨2点，美联储公布了7月FOMC会议纪要。美联储在7月会议上连续第二个月将基准利率上调75个基点，这是自1980年代初以来最快的收紧步伐。会议纪要揭示了连续加息75个基点背后的考量。</p><p>纪要显示，委员们认为持续加息是合适的，委员们看到了公众质疑美联储的抗通胀决心这一潜在的风险。但同时，许多委员认为，<b>存在货币政策紧缩幅度超过必要水平的风险，加息步伐将在某个时候放缓</b>。<b>这是美联储今年以来首次提到“过度紧缩”的风险。 </b></p><p>委员们指出，近期有关通胀预期的数据与2%的长期预期“一致”。一些与会者表示，政策利率必须达到“足够限制性”的水平，才能控制通胀，并在一段时间内保持这一水平。<b>这可能暗示，当先前收紧政策的滞后影响显现时，采取更多紧缩措施的理由将会减弱，但官员们不打算在近期降息，而是选择保持利率稳定，直到通胀明显下行。</b></p><p>与会者强调，需求放缓将在降低通胀方面发挥重要作用。与会者一致认为，<b>“几乎没有证据”表明通胀压力正在减弱，需要相当长的时间才能解决问题</b>。劳动力市场的强劲表现表明，经济活动比疲软的二季度GDP数据所暗示的更为强劲，这提高了GDP数据向上修正的可能性。</p><p>同时，没有迹象表明（至少没看到美联储官员）对房地产市场的金融风险表示担忧。对于住宅房地产价格持续上涨，委员们指出，尽管估值有所提高，但抵押贷款承销标准比之前的房价周期更强。</p><p>纪要公布后，<b>市场将其解读为鸽派</b>，但行情整体没有太大的反应，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>短线走低，现货黄金短线小幅走高转涨，美股三大股指曾抹平日内多数跌幅但最终收跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">美国10年期国债收益率</a>小幅下跌。联邦基金期货10月合约仍停留在97.05，使市场在美联储下月会议上加息50或75个基点之间保持微妙平衡。两年期国债收益率跌至3.29%左右，仍较昨日3.16%的低点大幅上升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3bf361cf5a2983ed8bef4c25c62e842\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>机构指出，虽然市场反应好像是把美联储会议纪要解读成鸽派，<b>市场认为，小幅加息甚至降息的可能性是不可避免的</b>，但不确定这种理解对不对。</p><p>可以肯定的是，<b>美联储重申了关于未来应放慢紧缩步伐的说法，而且谈到了存在过度紧缩的风险。</b>但有个地方要注意，经济增长势头相当疲软，下半年增长率将低于趋势水平。不过就目前而言，美联储对于这些似乎并不在意。虽然经济数据的不确定性的确使过度紧缩成为一种风险，但如果公众不认可美联储适当收紧政策的决心，那么高通胀有可能根深蒂固，<b>成为一个更危险的“重大风险”</b>。换言之，<b>美联储淡化收紧货币政策的承诺恰恰说明其更有可能把抗通胀这件事做到底</b>。</p><p>接下来，<b>市场需要看下一个通胀指标以及8月就业报告的情况，</b>才能真正预测美联储在9月份将采取什么行动。目前的通胀下降速度和劳动力市场尚未降温是大家都认为需要警惕的关键问题。</p><p>有分析师指出，不要把最近石油和其他一些大宗商品价格的下跌作为通胀持续走低的基础。包括美国前财政部长萨默斯和诺贝尔经济学奖得主克鲁格曼在内的观察人士在7月份CPI报告出炉前警告称，美联储不应对整体通胀放缓感到兴奋。会议纪要显示，美联储确实在保持警惕。</p><p>值得注意的是，美联储官员们将有机会在8月25日至27日于怀俄明州举行的<b>杰克逊霍尔央行年会</b>期间就前景发表新观点。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鸽派？美联储会议纪要：年内首提“过度紧缩”风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-18 07:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=98687&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>其实，美联储会议纪要里还藏了几只“鹰”。北京时间周四凌晨2点，美联储公布了7月FOMC会议纪要。美联储在7月会议上连续第二个月将基准利率上调75个基点，这是自1980年代初以来最快的收紧步伐。会议纪要揭示了连续加息75个基点背后的考量。纪要显示，委员们认为持续加息是合适的，委员们看到了公众质疑美联储的抗通胀决心这一潜在的风险。但同时，许多委员认为，存在货币政策紧缩幅度超过必要水平的风险，加息步伐将...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=98687&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28e2a5c057f0548b7c94dbc4f59d7c1c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=98687&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2260735978","content_text":"其实，美联储会议纪要里还藏了几只“鹰”。北京时间周四凌晨2点，美联储公布了7月FOMC会议纪要。美联储在7月会议上连续第二个月将基准利率上调75个基点，这是自1980年代初以来最快的收紧步伐。会议纪要揭示了连续加息75个基点背后的考量。纪要显示，委员们认为持续加息是合适的，委员们看到了公众质疑美联储的抗通胀决心这一潜在的风险。但同时，许多委员认为，存在货币政策紧缩幅度超过必要水平的风险，加息步伐将在某个时候放缓。这是美联储今年以来首次提到“过度紧缩”的风险。 委员们指出，近期有关通胀预期的数据与2%的长期预期“一致”。一些与会者表示，政策利率必须达到“足够限制性”的水平，才能控制通胀，并在一段时间内保持这一水平。这可能暗示，当先前收紧政策的滞后影响显现时，采取更多紧缩措施的理由将会减弱，但官员们不打算在近期降息，而是选择保持利率稳定，直到通胀明显下行。与会者强调，需求放缓将在降低通胀方面发挥重要作用。与会者一致认为，“几乎没有证据”表明通胀压力正在减弱，需要相当长的时间才能解决问题。劳动力市场的强劲表现表明，经济活动比疲软的二季度GDP数据所暗示的更为强劲，这提高了GDP数据向上修正的可能性。同时，没有迹象表明（至少没看到美联储官员）对房地产市场的金融风险表示担忧。对于住宅房地产价格持续上涨，委员们指出，尽管估值有所提高，但抵押贷款承销标准比之前的房价周期更强。纪要公布后，市场将其解读为鸽派，但行情整体没有太大的反应，美元指数短线走低，现货黄金短线小幅走高转涨，美股三大股指曾抹平日内多数跌幅但最终收跌，美国10年期国债收益率小幅下跌。联邦基金期货10月合约仍停留在97.05，使市场在美联储下月会议上加息50或75个基点之间保持微妙平衡。两年期国债收益率跌至3.29%左右，仍较昨日3.16%的低点大幅上升。机构指出，虽然市场反应好像是把美联储会议纪要解读成鸽派，市场认为，小幅加息甚至降息的可能性是不可避免的，但不确定这种理解对不对。可以肯定的是，美联储重申了关于未来应放慢紧缩步伐的说法，而且谈到了存在过度紧缩的风险。但有个地方要注意，经济增长势头相当疲软，下半年增长率将低于趋势水平。不过就目前而言，美联储对于这些似乎并不在意。虽然经济数据的不确定性的确使过度紧缩成为一种风险，但如果公众不认可美联储适当收紧政策的决心，那么高通胀有可能根深蒂固，成为一个更危险的“重大风险”。换言之，美联储淡化收紧货币政策的承诺恰恰说明其更有可能把抗通胀这件事做到底。接下来，市场需要看下一个通胀指标以及8月就业报告的情况，才能真正预测美联储在9月份将采取什么行动。目前的通胀下降速度和劳动力市场尚未降温是大家都认为需要警惕的关键问题。有分析师指出，不要把最近石油和其他一些大宗商品价格的下跌作为通胀持续走低的基础。包括美国前财政部长萨默斯和诺贝尔经济学奖得主克鲁格曼在内的观察人士在7月份CPI报告出炉前警告称，美联储不应对整体通胀放缓感到兴奋。会议纪要显示，美联储确实在保持警惕。值得注意的是，美联储官员们将有机会在8月25日至27日于怀俄明州举行的杰克逊霍尔央行年会期间就前景发表新观点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1835,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}