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作者：周晓雯 如果历史可信，倘若美联储在2022年上半年首次加息，将在随后的两到三年内对经济和金融市场产生影响。 如果市场预期正确，明年上半年美联储将启动另一个紧缩周期。 当美联储加息时，通常会发生什么？ 德意志银行研究部通过对过往历史上美联储加息后的市场变化进行回顾后发现，从首次加息算起，通常加息第一年经济增长保持强劲，通胀继续上升，股市继续上涨，信贷紧缩，债券收益率曲线趋平；到了第二年，经济增长开始放缓，股市趋于平稳，信贷开始扩大，债券收益率下降。 自1955年以来，一共有13个独立的加息周期，平均时间不到2年。如果从宣布加息当天开始计算，历史上的衰退则平均会在3-3.5年后出现。不过，1980年的加息到1981年的衰退只隔了11个月，但1983年的加息到1990年的衰退则隔了86个月。 常见的一个模式是，增长放缓通常发生在加息的一年后。这与货币政策的滞后性有关，一般货币政策的全面效应可能需要几个季度才能显现。 考虑到加息后最早出现衰退的时间是11个月，那么从统计上看，2022年出现负增长的可能性很低。如果历史可信的话，这种可能性将从2023年起不断增加。 加息周期中的宏观经济 在加息开启之后，名义和实际GDP都会在第二年开始出现增速放缓，但通胀并没有这个趋势。 平均而言，在加息周期的第一年，实际GDP增长为+4.8%，但在第二年放缓至+2.7%，第三年为+2.1%。 在紧缩周期开始后，名义GDP中也出现同样的现象。第一年平均增长8.5%，但第二年放缓至6.5%，第三年增长5.8%，这是一个主要的趋势。 然而在通胀方面并没有类似的现象。通胀可能是加息周期开始的主要原因，但历史表明，抑制通胀需要一段时间。 平均而言，通货膨胀率已经从第一次加息后一年的+3.8%上升到第二年的+4.5%。也就是说，这在很大程度上是一种相关性而非因果关系，因为加息周期开始的首要原因往往是通胀压

-- Fast-growing technology stocks have taken a beating in recent weeks -- and Netflix Inc. is no exception.Shares of the streaming giant are down 13% from a Nov. 17 record, in tandem with the slump in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Stock Index after the Federal Reserve indicated three rate increases and faster tapering in 2022. Concerns over the omicron coronavirus variant have also pressured equities.These forces have thrown the broad investment outlook for the start of 2022 into flux, but what has

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Of late, PLTR has been under heavy selling pressure. Not too long ago, it was a hype stock. Today its trading below $20. Are there still steam in it or its a pure value trap from now on.To me, PLTR has a very unique business model. It has its competitive edge especially on areas which is under the government contracts. But expanding this to commercial is where the challenge is. And are they able to scale to the level which investors is looking for. Of late, certainly market analyst don't think so.Some background and also relook at their Q3 resultPalantir Technologies is a public American software company that specializes in big data analytics. Headquartered in Denver, Colorado, it was founded by Pete

BERLIN, Dec 22 - Tesla and relevant authorities have submitted all the documents necessary for the approval process for its planned factory near Berlin, the environment ministry of the German state of Brandenburg said on Wednesday.The approval process is still ongoing, the ministry said.Tesla could not be immediately reached for comment.Due to environmental resistance and red tape, it remained unclear when the first vehicles will roll off the production line at the site. Brandenburg premier Die

$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$ With the expected increase of interest rates by the Feds next year, OCBC will be a beneficiary as it can raise interest rates on its loans. Right now, of the 3 local banks, OCBC shares are undervalued. Yesterday it started trending upwards and I believe it will continue to do in the near future. Great time to buy now to capture the uptrend. $OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$ is the 2nd largest bank in Singapore and has been paying regular dividends. In a volatile market like now, I know that OCBC is solid like a rock and offers peace of mind, knowing it is a very stable bank with exponential growth in Asia. Go Long Go

One of the stocks has turned $10,000 into nearly $100 million.

May 17 (Reuters) - Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd : * QTRLY REVENUE INCREASED BY 60.6% YEAR-TO-YEA