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- DiamondhandsDiamondhands
  ·2021-08-24
  Fud
  Inside The Deterioration Of Tesla's Solar Business
  Tesla's $670 billion market cap is based in part on the belief that it is "more than a car company"; Tesla's solar energy business has fed this narrative.While treated like a value-add by Tesla's boosters, its solar unit has in practice been a costly millstone; margins remain deeply negative.Tesla's solar deployments have fallen far from highs set years ago, with little prospect of a reversal.Hopes that Tesla's Solar Roof could reinvigorate deployment rates have faded amid multi-year delays and
  Inside The Deterioration Of Tesla's Solar Business
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- DiamondhandsDiamondhands
  ·2021-06-18
  Lol this joke FUD. Tesla will win hands down
  NIO Is Winning
  NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc. stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In
  NIO Is Winning
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Fud&nbsp;","listText":"Fud&nbsp;","text":"Fud","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834156442","repostId":"1187997976","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187997976","pubTimestamp":1629777349,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187997976?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inside The Deterioration Of Tesla's Solar Business","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187997976","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla's $670 billion market cap is based in part on the belief that it is \"more than a car company\"; Tesla's solar energy business has fed this narrative.While treated like a value-add by Tesla's boosters, its solar unit has in practice been a costly millstone; margins remain deeply negative.Tesla's solar deployments have fallen far from highs set years ago, with little prospect of a reversal.Hopes that Tesla's Solar Roof could reinvigorate deployment rates have faded amid multi-year delays and ","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla's $670 billion market cap is based in part on the belief that it is \"more than a car company\"; Tesla's solar energy business has fed this narrative.</li>\n <li>While treated like a value-add by Tesla's boosters, its solar unit has in practice been a costly millstone; margins remain deeply negative.</li>\n <li>Tesla's solar deployments have fallen far from highs set years ago, with little prospect of a reversal.</li>\n <li>Hopes that Tesla's Solar Roof could reinvigorate deployment rates have faded amid multi-year delays and persistent installation bottlenecks.</li>\n <li>As Tesla's solar business fades, it may threaten the company's broader growth narrative, as well as its vaunted share price.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b04b99e933e100452f6e47f2c34a1460\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>RoschetzkyIstockPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>As any of my longtime readers can undoubtedly attest, I have been tracking Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) for a while. I have covered numerous subjects related to the electric vehicle (“EV”) company over the years, but I have returned often to one in particular: Tesla’s solar energy business.</p>\n<p>It has been a while since I lasttook a look under the hoodof Tesla’s solar division. With the first two quarters of 2021 in the rearview mirror, it feels like now is a good time to revisit the long-struggling business unit.</p>\n<p>Much has changed for Tesla Solar in 2021, little of it for the good. Let’s discuss why this is the case.</p>\n<p>Solar Deployments In H1 2021: Still In A Long-Term Downtrend</p>\n<p>As I have&nbsp;discussed at length&nbsp;on&nbsp;numerous occasions&nbsp;over the years, Tesla Solar has been in material multi-year decline from a deployments perspective. Thus, when Tesla reported Q1 2021 earnings, I naturally looked to the solar deployment numbers to see if the negative pattern had continued. As it turned out, Tesla had managed to achieve a major sequential jump in deployments, a fact the company was quick tocrow about in its Q1 investor letter:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “Solar Retrofit and Solar Roof Solar deployments reached 92 MW in Q1, our strongest quarter in 2.5 years. Solar Roof deployments grew 9x compared to the same period last year.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Tesla reported solar deployments to the tune of 92 megawatts (“MW”) in Q1, the most it had managed in years. Under the circumstances, Tesla can hardly be blamed for having wanted to highlight such a marked improvement in chart form:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7270ea980168a8e2976a38fd80b6b5c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"335\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Tesla Inc.</span></p>\n<p>The chart above, which was included in the Q1 investor letter, certainly looks like it could be a sign of a turnaround in the making. However, its relatively limited timescale also limits its usefulness to investors and analysts interested in understanding the long-term performance and trajectory of Tesla's solar business. Charting the full history of Tesla's quarterly solar deployments through Q1 2021 offers a rather different perspective:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab180dd817e9d4db21ed6ff4014e0d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author; Tesla Inc.</span></p>\n<p>I hardly have to remind investors that one quarter of growth does not a pattern make. If Tesla could sustain that growth into Q2, then one might be able to talk legitimately about a turnaround. As it turned out, Tesladeployed just 85 MW in Q2, a more than7.5% sequential drop:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e076db4124ae5b339c1c78e6f33502\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TeslaCharts; Tesla Inc.</span></p>\n<p>Tesla's solar deployments were not just lower in Q2 than in Q1, however. At 85MW, Tesla actually managed one 1MW less than it did in Q4 2020, despite seasonal impacts traditionally weakening year-end solar deployment rates. That would seem to put paid to any notion that Tesla's solar operations have been making a significant or sustainable turnaround.</p>\n<p>Deployments may have climbed significantly from their nadir in the first half of last year, but they remain a pale shadow of what Tesla was managing five years ago. They are also radically lower than what Tesla itself hadprojected in 2016when it was in the process of acquiring SolarCity:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0a31640e43eea612f1ca8aba8bea3ae\" tg-width=\"498\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: @C_S_Skeptic; GLJ Research; Tesla Inc.</span></p>\n<p>In 2016, Tesla was predicting solar deployments in excess of 500MW per quarter starting in 2017. We are now mid-way through 2021 and quarterly solar deployment levels stand at less than 20% of that figure.</p>\n<p>Product Progress: Solar Roof Still Not Ready For Prime Time</p>\n<p>Unveiled with great fanfare in October 2016,the Solar Roof was touted from the start as the future of solar energy technology. At the time, CEO Elon Musk was insistent that the Solar Roof was not merely a concept in development, but was actually a fully functional technology ready to enter full-scale production. Musk told his rapt audience that the acquisition of SolarCity would facilitate the rapid rollout of the Solar Roof, providing one of the first public justifications for the merger between Tesla and the virtually insolvent solar installer that had been founded by two of Musk's cousins, and of which Musk was then chairman of the board of directors.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e6430233a156f81e842006c4eac751\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"302\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Tesla Inc.</span></p>\n<p>The Solar Roof unveiling event may have helped smooth the way for the SolarCity tie-up, but it did so at the price of full transparency about the technology's readiness. Musk's claim about the Solar Roof's immediate viability was proven false in short order, as it quickly became apparent that the Solar Roof was still very much a concept in development, and with little near-term prospect of commercialization. Even then, few could have guessed how long that design and development process would take.</p>\n<p>A review of the progress to date on the long-promised but oft-delayed Solar Roof reveals a business reality far different from what has long been promised by Tesla’s solar cheerleaders. In the years since it was unveiled, the Solar Roof has gone through multipleredesigns and rebrands, even as Musk has repeatedly assured investors and the public that full-scale commercial production was imminent. In March 2019, he declared that 2019 would be \"the Year of the Solar Roof.\" In July of the same year, Musk tweeted that Solar Roof production wasaccelerating toward 1,000 units roofs per week:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bbff17a88092785ef1227e94c6e8f19\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Elon Musk; Twitter</span></p>\n<p>This claim raised plenty of eyebrows in the investment community. Their skepticism proved well deserved as it soon became apparent that the actual Solar Roof production and installation rates were far lower. Even Electrek, a website well known for its consistently bullish Tesla commentary, felt compelled to call Musk out on his claim. According to Electrek, Musk's tweet was \"a bit of an exaggeration\" and that the actual production rate at the time was closer to 500 Solar Roofs per week. However, even that reduced projection appears to overstate the level of steady-state production and installation by a significant margin.</p>\n<p>The Solar Roof has seen its fortunes improve little in 2021 thus far. According to renewable energy industry journalist Eric Wesoff, Tesla had&nbsp;yet to install 1,000 Solar Roofs total&nbsp;as recently as this April. This pessimistic view was further reinforced last month when the Wall Street Journal&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that the Securities and Exchange Commission had already confronted Tesla over Musk's dubious prior Solar Roof claims:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “In correspondence sent to Tesla in 2019 and 2020, the SEC said tweets Mr. Musk wrote about Tesla’s solar roof production volumes and its stock price hadn’t undergone the required preapproval by Tesla’s lawyers. The communications, which haven’t been previously reported, spotlight the running tension between the nation’s top corporate regulator and Mr. Musk, who publicly mocked the SEC even after settling fraud claims with the agency. The SEC told Tesla in May 2020 that the company had failed ‘to enforce these procedures and controls despite repeated violations by Mr. Musk.’ The letter, signed by Steven Buchholz, a senior SEC official in its San Francisco office, added: ‘Tesla has abdicated the duties required of it by the court’s order.’\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>Whether installation speed has picked up meaningfully over the past few months is unclear thanks in no small part to Tesla's inconsistency with regard to reporting on the subject. Thus, while Tesla's Q1 investor letter boasted that Solar Roof installations \"grew 9x compared to the same period last year,\" it neglected to provide an exact number of MW deployed. The Q2 update offered still less clarity, failing to mention even the growth rate other than to say that deployments \"grew substantially\" on a sequential and year-over-year basis.</p>\n<p><b>Investor's Eye View</b></p>\n<p>Whatever way you slice it, Tesla’s seemingly endless struggle to launch a viable solar roof product at scale is problematic for a company that is valued based on a highly optimistic growth narrative. Tesla's market capitalization, which currently stands in excess of $670 billion, is nearly five times greater than that of Volkswagen AG (OTCPK:VWAGY), the world's largest automaker. That is in spite of the fact that Tesla currently has barely 5% of Volkswagen's annual automotive production capacity. In other words, Tesla is currently priced as if it will not only surpass the likes of Volkswagen in terms of production and sales volume, but will radically exceed them.</p>\n<p>While irrational exuberance about an EV-dominated future can explain some of Tesla's eye-watering share price, it is not the only factor. Tesla's valuation is also the result of the company's efforts to position itself as \"more than a car company.\" Solar has always been a core component of this narrative, yet it has failed to live up to the hype. Deployments remain far below the highs set half a decade ago, even as&nbsp;customer satisfaction&nbsp;has continued to fall.</p>\n<p>Moreover, the fundamental economics of Tesla's solar operations have always been shaky at best. Indeed, even as Tesla's automotive operations have inched toward breakeven, the&nbsp;margins for its solar business remain painfully negative. That is hardly a glowing endorsement of a business unit that is supposed to add to Tesla's value proposition, not detract from it.</p>\n<p>In sum, Tesla's valuation is the product of high expectations and belief in the company's ability to expand its offerings far beyond the conventional automotive realm. Based on the performance of its solar energy business to date, it would seem prudent to revise some of those expectations downward.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inside The Deterioration Of Tesla's Solar Business</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInside The Deterioration Of Tesla's Solar Business\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451383-inside-the-deterioration-of-teslas-solar-business><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla's $670 billion market cap is based in part on the belief that it is \"more than a car company\"; Tesla's solar energy business has fed this narrative.\nWhile treated like a value-add by ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451383-inside-the-deterioration-of-teslas-solar-business\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451383-inside-the-deterioration-of-teslas-solar-business","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1187997976","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla's $670 billion market cap is based in part on the belief that it is \"more than a car company\"; Tesla's solar energy business has fed this narrative.\nWhile treated like a value-add by Tesla's boosters, its solar unit has in practice been a costly millstone; margins remain deeply negative.\nTesla's solar deployments have fallen far from highs set years ago, with little prospect of a reversal.\nHopes that Tesla's Solar Roof could reinvigorate deployment rates have faded amid multi-year delays and persistent installation bottlenecks.\nAs Tesla's solar business fades, it may threaten the company's broader growth narrative, as well as its vaunted share price.\n\nRoschetzkyIstockPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nAs any of my longtime readers can undoubtedly attest, I have been tracking Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) for a while. I have covered numerous subjects related to the electric vehicle (“EV”) company over the years, but I have returned often to one in particular: Tesla’s solar energy business.\nIt has been a while since I lasttook a look under the hoodof Tesla’s solar division. With the first two quarters of 2021 in the rearview mirror, it feels like now is a good time to revisit the long-struggling business unit.\nMuch has changed for Tesla Solar in 2021, little of it for the good. Let’s discuss why this is the case.\nSolar Deployments In H1 2021: Still In A Long-Term Downtrend\nAs I have discussed at length on numerous occasions over the years, Tesla Solar has been in material multi-year decline from a deployments perspective. Thus, when Tesla reported Q1 2021 earnings, I naturally looked to the solar deployment numbers to see if the negative pattern had continued. As it turned out, Tesla had managed to achieve a major sequential jump in deployments, a fact the company was quick tocrow about in its Q1 investor letter:\n\n “Solar Retrofit and Solar Roof Solar deployments reached 92 MW in Q1, our strongest quarter in 2.5 years. Solar Roof deployments grew 9x compared to the same period last year.”\n\nTesla reported solar deployments to the tune of 92 megawatts (“MW”) in Q1, the most it had managed in years. Under the circumstances, Tesla can hardly be blamed for having wanted to highlight such a marked improvement in chart form:\nSource: Tesla Inc.\nThe chart above, which was included in the Q1 investor letter, certainly looks like it could be a sign of a turnaround in the making. However, its relatively limited timescale also limits its usefulness to investors and analysts interested in understanding the long-term performance and trajectory of Tesla's solar business. Charting the full history of Tesla's quarterly solar deployments through Q1 2021 offers a rather different perspective:\nSource: Author; Tesla Inc.\nI hardly have to remind investors that one quarter of growth does not a pattern make. If Tesla could sustain that growth into Q2, then one might be able to talk legitimately about a turnaround. As it turned out, Tesladeployed just 85 MW in Q2, a more than7.5% sequential drop:\nSource: TeslaCharts; Tesla Inc.\nTesla's solar deployments were not just lower in Q2 than in Q1, however. At 85MW, Tesla actually managed one 1MW less than it did in Q4 2020, despite seasonal impacts traditionally weakening year-end solar deployment rates. That would seem to put paid to any notion that Tesla's solar operations have been making a significant or sustainable turnaround.\nDeployments may have climbed significantly from their nadir in the first half of last year, but they remain a pale shadow of what Tesla was managing five years ago. They are also radically lower than what Tesla itself hadprojected in 2016when it was in the process of acquiring SolarCity:\nSource: @C_S_Skeptic; GLJ Research; Tesla Inc.\nIn 2016, Tesla was predicting solar deployments in excess of 500MW per quarter starting in 2017. We are now mid-way through 2021 and quarterly solar deployment levels stand at less than 20% of that figure.\nProduct Progress: Solar Roof Still Not Ready For Prime Time\nUnveiled with great fanfare in October 2016,the Solar Roof was touted from the start as the future of solar energy technology. At the time, CEO Elon Musk was insistent that the Solar Roof was not merely a concept in development, but was actually a fully functional technology ready to enter full-scale production. Musk told his rapt audience that the acquisition of SolarCity would facilitate the rapid rollout of the Solar Roof, providing one of the first public justifications for the merger between Tesla and the virtually insolvent solar installer that had been founded by two of Musk's cousins, and of which Musk was then chairman of the board of directors.\nSource: Tesla Inc.\nThe Solar Roof unveiling event may have helped smooth the way for the SolarCity tie-up, but it did so at the price of full transparency about the technology's readiness. Musk's claim about the Solar Roof's immediate viability was proven false in short order, as it quickly became apparent that the Solar Roof was still very much a concept in development, and with little near-term prospect of commercialization. Even then, few could have guessed how long that design and development process would take.\nA review of the progress to date on the long-promised but oft-delayed Solar Roof reveals a business reality far different from what has long been promised by Tesla’s solar cheerleaders. In the years since it was unveiled, the Solar Roof has gone through multipleredesigns and rebrands, even as Musk has repeatedly assured investors and the public that full-scale commercial production was imminent. In March 2019, he declared that 2019 would be \"the Year of the Solar Roof.\" In July of the same year, Musk tweeted that Solar Roof production wasaccelerating toward 1,000 units roofs per week:\nSource: Elon Musk; Twitter\nThis claim raised plenty of eyebrows in the investment community. Their skepticism proved well deserved as it soon became apparent that the actual Solar Roof production and installation rates were far lower. Even Electrek, a website well known for its consistently bullish Tesla commentary, felt compelled to call Musk out on his claim. According to Electrek, Musk's tweet was \"a bit of an exaggeration\" and that the actual production rate at the time was closer to 500 Solar Roofs per week. However, even that reduced projection appears to overstate the level of steady-state production and installation by a significant margin.\nThe Solar Roof has seen its fortunes improve little in 2021 thus far. According to renewable energy industry journalist Eric Wesoff, Tesla had yet to install 1,000 Solar Roofs total as recently as this April. This pessimistic view was further reinforced last month when the Wall Street Journal reported that the Securities and Exchange Commission had already confronted Tesla over Musk's dubious prior Solar Roof claims:\n\n “In correspondence sent to Tesla in 2019 and 2020, the SEC said tweets Mr. Musk wrote about Tesla’s solar roof production volumes and its stock price hadn’t undergone the required preapproval by Tesla’s lawyers. The communications, which haven’t been previously reported, spotlight the running tension between the nation’s top corporate regulator and Mr. Musk, who publicly mocked the SEC even after settling fraud claims with the agency. The SEC told Tesla in May 2020 that the company had failed ‘to enforce these procedures and controls despite repeated violations by Mr. Musk.’ The letter, signed by Steven Buchholz, a senior SEC official in its San Francisco office, added: ‘Tesla has abdicated the duties required of it by the court’s order.’\"\n\nWhether installation speed has picked up meaningfully over the past few months is unclear thanks in no small part to Tesla's inconsistency with regard to reporting on the subject. Thus, while Tesla's Q1 investor letter boasted that Solar Roof installations \"grew 9x compared to the same period last year,\" it neglected to provide an exact number of MW deployed. The Q2 update offered still less clarity, failing to mention even the growth rate other than to say that deployments \"grew substantially\" on a sequential and year-over-year basis.\nInvestor's Eye View\nWhatever way you slice it, Tesla’s seemingly endless struggle to launch a viable solar roof product at scale is problematic for a company that is valued based on a highly optimistic growth narrative. Tesla's market capitalization, which currently stands in excess of $670 billion, is nearly five times greater than that of Volkswagen AG (OTCPK:VWAGY), the world's largest automaker. That is in spite of the fact that Tesla currently has barely 5% of Volkswagen's annual automotive production capacity. In other words, Tesla is currently priced as if it will not only surpass the likes of Volkswagen in terms of production and sales volume, but will radically exceed them.\nWhile irrational exuberance about an EV-dominated future can explain some of Tesla's eye-watering share price, it is not the only factor. Tesla's valuation is also the result of the company's efforts to position itself as \"more than a car company.\" Solar has always been a core component of this narrative, yet it has failed to live up to the hype. Deployments remain far below the highs set half a decade ago, even as customer satisfaction has continued to fall.\nMoreover, the fundamental economics of Tesla's solar operations have always been shaky at best. Indeed, even as Tesla's automotive operations have inched toward breakeven, the margins for its solar business remain painfully negative. That is hardly a glowing endorsement of a business unit that is supposed to add to Tesla's value proposition, not detract from it.\nIn sum, Tesla's valuation is the product of high expectations and belief in the company's ability to expand its offerings far beyond the conventional automotive realm. Based on the performance of its solar energy business to date, it would seem prudent to revise some of those expectations downward.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166501550,"gmtCreate":1624015302370,"gmtModify":1634024102595,"author":{"id":"3555405267310133","authorId":"3555405267310133","authorIdStr":"3555405267310133","name":"Diamondhands","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555405267310133"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol this joke FUD. Tesla will win hands down","listText":"Lol this joke FUD. Tesla will win hands down","text":"Lol this joke FUD. Tesla will win hands down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166501550","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>\n <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>\n <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p>\n<p>In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p>\n<p><b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p>\n<p>NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p>\n<p>Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p>\n<p>Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p>\n<p>One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p>\n<p>NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p>\n<p>China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p>\n<p>Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p>\n<p><b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p>\n<p>NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p>\n<p>The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p>\n<p>However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p>\n<p>Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p>\n<p>Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p>\n<p>NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p>\n<p>NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p>\n<p>Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p>\n<p>NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":35,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}