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爱吃水果的狼

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- 爱吃水果的狼爱吃水果的狼
  ·2023-07-19
  ?c?w做?olll
  流动性快速收紧，警惕美股科技泡沫破灭
  市场对经济预期过于乐观，科技泡沫担忧浮现。
  流动性快速收紧，警惕美股科技泡沫破灭
  1,824 评论
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- 爱吃水果的狼爱吃水果的狼
  ·2023-03-15
  $蔚来(NIO)$ 如果蔚来再次回归一元时代就是彻底倒闭的那一天
  2,196 评论
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- 爱吃水果的狼爱吃水果的狼
  ·2022-09-17
  $蔚来(NIO)$汽车还没造明白，这又要造手机，手机你有独家秘方是吗还不是继续收割智商。
  6,287 评论
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- 爱吃水果的狼爱吃水果的狼
  ·2022-09-07
  $蔚来(NIO)$技术突破不了瓶颈后期越发艰难
  2,187 评论
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- 爱吃水果的狼爱吃水果的狼
  ·2022-08-20
  $蔚来(NIO)$给自己画了一个饼
  1,957 评论
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- 爱吃水果的狼爱吃水果的狼
  ·2022-08-10
  $蔚来(NIO)$曾经的那些忠实者这会儿都跑到哪里去了。
  3,232 2
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- 爱吃水果的狼爱吃水果的狼
  ·2022-06-24
  $蔚来(NIO)$为已故的两名试车员默哀，愿下辈子别再分不清前进后退档
  2,985 评论
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- 爱吃水果的狼爱吃水果的狼
  ·2022-06-12
  扶不起的阿斗
  2,074 评论
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- 爱吃水果的狼爱吃水果的狼
  ·2022-06-09
  $蔚来(NIO)$若是在4年前结合品牌效应打价格战的话有可能会比现在更好，价格决定人群终归是小众群体。
  5,327 3
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- 爱吃水果的狼爱吃水果的狼
  ·2022-05-20
  $蔚来(NIO)$美交所没人买单，换个地方继续圈。
  4,702 2
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17:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"流动性快速收紧，警惕美股科技泡沫破灭","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172144282","media":"东吴研究所","summary":"市场对经济预期过于乐观，科技泡沫担忧浮现。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：东吴证券 陈李</p><p><strong>事件</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>近期美股的积极走势表明了市场对于经济软着陆的前景开始更为看好。同时，虽然美债长短端利率已深度倒挂，但衰退依然尚未到来。本篇报告中我们探讨目前支撑美股上行的动力和一些正在酝酿的风险。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>观点</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>劳动力严重短缺导致利率上行并未明显影响就业市场。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然新增就业数量的下滑往往与经济活动放缓挂钩，但从目前的趋势来看，新增就业的下降更可能是由于劳动力短缺。我们认为，从好的方面来看，就业数据难以降温，失业率处于低位，意味着衰退还没有到来。然而，供不应求的劳动力市场意味着通胀的风险依然严峻，美联储持续加息的动力也在持续。7月加息大概率不是本轮加息周期的终点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>制造业活动进一步放缓。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">拜登政府对制造业的大力财政支持起到了托底作用，使得近期市场对经济软着陆的信心有所提振。值得关注的是ISM制造业PMI在2023年6月出现最近三年以来最严重下滑，连续10个月处在50荣枯线以下的新订单指数也进一步体现了商品需求的减弱。同时，制造业就业在整体非农就业中增幅较低。尽管目前工商业贷款的增速仍然较好，随着2年期利率创下十六年来的新高，借贷成本的上升预计将显著放缓制造业活动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>最大的风险是充裕的流动性可能回落。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们认为使目前的美股市场表现较好的另一个重要因素是充裕的流动性。第一，尽管QT正在展开，但美国银行准备金依然保持在3.2万亿美元以上，因为QT主要消耗了逆回购市场中的资金，从而没有对经济造成显著影响，充足的准备金也促进了银行的放贷行为。第二，大量的居民储蓄转化为了资产，资产价格上涨使得居民购买力不断上升。同时为市场注入流动性的还有美联储设立的银行定期融资计划(BTFP)等工具。RRP余额下降至2万亿美元以下，也意味着流动性注入市场。但我们也需要注意到，QT步伐正在加快，并且随着债务上限法案的签署，财政部需补充其在美联储的支票账户TGA，这也将削弱市场的流动性。如果用美联储资产+BTFP释放资金-TGA吸收资金-RRP余额的方式来计算美国市场流动性，就能发现RRP和BTFP增加的流动性不足以抵消被TGA和QT吸收的流动性。从这一指标与标普500历史走势的关系来看，支撑美股上行的动力预计即将减弱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2023年5月起美债短端利率开始上行，目前长端利率也开始上行，说明市场认为利率将在长期内保持高位。与此同时，长端实际利率的上行代表了长期通胀预期的下降，这些趋势似乎说明，市场对经济的预期非常乐观，认为未来将是低通胀且不陷入衰退的经济环境。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们认为，目前的市场预期可能过于乐观。如果不考虑科技巨头的权重影响，今年上半年以来标普500等权重指数涨幅其实并不明显，从估值的上涨也可以看出，涨幅几乎完全由七只科技巨头贡献，而其他股票估值呈下挫趋势。从历史数据来看，科技巨头和其他股票的估值走势不会长期脱钩。相较于5月，全球基金经理对于科技泡沫的担忧开始浮现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>风险提示：</strong>美联储7月后继续加息；美国制造业活动持续放缓，软着陆可能性降低；流动性快速收紧，支撑美股上行的动力减弱；科技股估值泡沫可能破灭。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1645409426944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>流动性快速收紧，警惕美股科技泡沫破灭</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n流动性快速收紧，警惕美股科技泡沫破灭\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-19 17:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI1NDE0ODc0NQ==&mid=2653745277&idx=3&sn=e7ca36ce5d1953144d93e4d58875c8f7&chksm=f211f99bc566708d9eb45b8f84b599f3aca0fc73ebc69fe9cfed9564dd9a4bfaabc13f466767&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0719JzPnwSXS9fTGxiIyKO57&sharer_sharetime=1689727061576&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd><strong>东吴研究所</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：东吴证券 陈李事件近期美股的积极走势表明了市场对于经济软着陆的前景开始更为看好。同时，虽然美债长短端利率已深度倒挂，但衰退依然尚未到来。本篇报告中我们探讨目前支撑美股上行的动力和一些正在酝酿的风险。观点劳动力严重短缺导致利率上行并未明显影响就业市场。虽然新增就业数量的下滑往往与经济活动放缓挂钩，但从目前的趋势来看，新增就业的下降更可能是由于劳动力短缺。我们认为，从好的方面来看，就业数据难以...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI1NDE0ODc0NQ==&mid=2653745277&idx=3&sn=e7ca36ce5d1953144d93e4d58875c8f7&chksm=f211f99bc566708d9eb45b8f84b599f3aca0fc73ebc69fe9cfed9564dd9a4bfaabc13f466767&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0719JzPnwSXS9fTGxiIyKO57&sharer_sharetime=1689727061576&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7665b640c6daf26b451cc5367e24e1","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI1NDE0ODc0NQ==&mid=2653745277&idx=3&sn=e7ca36ce5d1953144d93e4d58875c8f7&chksm=f211f99bc566708d9eb45b8f84b599f3aca0fc73ebc69fe9cfed9564dd9a4bfaabc13f466767&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0719JzPnwSXS9fTGxiIyKO57&sharer_sharetime=1689727061576&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172144282","content_text":"作者：东吴证券 陈李事件近期美股的积极走势表明了市场对于经济软着陆的前景开始更为看好。同时，虽然美债长短端利率已深度倒挂，但衰退依然尚未到来。本篇报告中我们探讨目前支撑美股上行的动力和一些正在酝酿的风险。观点劳动力严重短缺导致利率上行并未明显影响就业市场。虽然新增就业数量的下滑往往与经济活动放缓挂钩，但从目前的趋势来看，新增就业的下降更可能是由于劳动力短缺。我们认为，从好的方面来看，就业数据难以降温，失业率处于低位，意味着衰退还没有到来。然而，供不应求的劳动力市场意味着通胀的风险依然严峻，美联储持续加息的动力也在持续。7月加息大概率不是本轮加息周期的终点。制造业活动进一步放缓。拜登政府对制造业的大力财政支持起到了托底作用，使得近期市场对经济软着陆的信心有所提振。值得关注的是ISM制造业PMI在2023年6月出现最近三年以来最严重下滑，连续10个月处在50荣枯线以下的新订单指数也进一步体现了商品需求的减弱。同时，制造业就业在整体非农就业中增幅较低。尽管目前工商业贷款的增速仍然较好，随着2年期利率创下十六年来的新高，借贷成本的上升预计将显著放缓制造业活动。最大的风险是充裕的流动性可能回落。我们认为使目前的美股市场表现较好的另一个重要因素是充裕的流动性。第一，尽管QT正在展开，但美国银行准备金依然保持在3.2万亿美元以上，因为QT主要消耗了逆回购市场中的资金，从而没有对经济造成显著影响，充足的准备金也促进了银行的放贷行为。第二，大量的居民储蓄转化为了资产，资产价格上涨使得居民购买力不断上升。同时为市场注入流动性的还有美联储设立的银行定期融资计划(BTFP)等工具。RRP余额下降至2万亿美元以下，也意味着流动性注入市场。但我们也需要注意到，QT步伐正在加快，并且随着债务上限法案的签署，财政部需补充其在美联储的支票账户TGA，这也将削弱市场的流动性。如果用美联储资产+BTFP释放资金-TGA吸收资金-RRP余额的方式来计算美国市场流动性，就能发现RRP和BTFP增加的流动性不足以抵消被TGA和QT吸收的流动性。从这一指标与标普500历史走势的关系来看，支撑美股上行的动力预计即将减弱。2023年5月起美债短端利率开始上行，目前长端利率也开始上行，说明市场认为利率将在长期内保持高位。与此同时，长端实际利率的上行代表了长期通胀预期的下降，这些趋势似乎说明，市场对经济的预期非常乐观，认为未来将是低通胀且不陷入衰退的经济环境。我们认为，目前的市场预期可能过于乐观。如果不考虑科技巨头的权重影响，今年上半年以来标普500等权重指数涨幅其实并不明显，从估值的上涨也可以看出，涨幅几乎完全由七只科技巨头贡献，而其他股票估值呈下挫趋势。从历史数据来看，科技巨头和其他股票的估值走势不会长期脱钩。相较于5月，全球基金经理对于科技泡沫的担忧开始浮现。风险提示：美联储7月后继续加息；美国制造业活动持续放缓，软着陆可能性降低；流动性快速收紧，支撑美股上行的动力减弱；科技股估值泡沫可能破灭。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":650959435,"gmtCreate":1678858051327,"gmtModify":1678858054331,"author":{"id":"3520203043336421","authorId":"3520203043336421","name":"爱吃水果的狼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7644d967706b6d402a48988fb4b8c9f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3520203043336421","authorIdStr":"3520203043336421"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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