近年来,拉丁美洲作为一个充满多样性和潜力的地区,逐渐引起了全球投资者的关注。尤其在电子银行和电子商务领域,拉美展现出了令人瞩目的投资机遇。这一地区拥有大量年轻人口,他们普遍具有较高的手机普及率和频繁的使用习惯,更容易接受和采用新兴的平台和网络。同时,庞大而不断增长的中产阶级群体为电子商务市场带来了强劲的消费动力。随着互联网和智能手机的普及,越来越多的消费者开始选择在线购物,推动了电子商务平台的迅速发展。此外,数字银行的兴起填补了传统银行服务的空白,用极高的效率和极低的成本为拉美消费者提供优质的在线数字银行的各种服务。这一篇文章我们先从一个比较宏观的视角去了解一下拉美现在的经济状况。从人口和年龄的角度上来说,拉美人口和东南亚人口数量接近,且人群比较年轻。拉美大约有6.5亿人,人口增速0.7%。其中巴西有2.15亿人,墨西哥有1.27亿人。巴西和墨西哥两国的人口占拉美地区总人口52%。整个拉美平均年龄是31岁,巴西和墨西哥分别是34.7岁和30.6岁,都是处于生产力最旺盛的年龄段。相比于老龄化加剧的欧洲、北美以及中国,拉美地区的人口结构都更有利于经济生产的。Source:Median age by country, CIA World Factbook, 2016 est2022年拉美地区GDP总量约为6.3万亿,同年中国18万亿,大约是中国GDP规模的35%。其中巴西的GDP总量是1.92万亿、1.46万亿,两国GDP总量在拉美中的占比达到54%。所以,仅从GDP和人口的角度来说,巴西和墨西哥在拉美有着举足轻重的地位。2022年拉美人均GDP是9,559美元,同年中国人均GDP为12,720美元,美国人均GDP为76,329美元。其中巴西8,917美元,墨西哥11,496美元。墨西哥的人均GDP和中国差不多,巴西稍微少一些。根据IMF的预测,2024年巴西和墨西哥的
近期关于未来BTC能涨到多少有不小的争议,有很乐观的也有谨慎的,相比起来,我们相对乐观。这里仅仅做一个简单的情景分析,当然未必正确。本文来自于BEDROCK成员Eva全球财富(净资产)根据ubs的数据,2022年大约在454.4万亿,假设6%的增速(历史上增速要高于gdp增速),预计在2036年达到1,034万亿。其中,57%配置在了股票、固定收益、黄金、另类资产和加密货币上。根据测算,2023年底加密货币总市值1.65万亿,占全球全球财富(净资产)仅0.3%,比特币占比0.15%。按照最新数据,机构持有比特币的比例也仅12.7%;黄金etf 222b,BTC spot ETF AUM已经接近 57b,已经是黄金的25%,而比特币市值仅是all the above ground of gold value的11%左右,比特币将crossing the chasm。随着其去中心化“信仰”的传播和蔓延,etf等金融工具降低进入门槛,机构入场带来大量资金流入,比特币作为最成熟的加密货币资产,收益率和波动性也会逐渐趋缓,风险回报更加合理,但仍然相对其他传统金融资产吸引力更大等原因,比特币等加密货币具有从其他传统金融资产长期抢份额的逻辑,2036年金融资产(见下图)配置比例将在2036年占全球财富的47.7%,比如黄金假设下降到1.7%,固定收益和股票占比也下降,但另类资产预计可能会和加密货币一起高速增长。我们预计比特币在36年会达到全球财富的3%(也有可能尚未到头),参考2023年黄金(all the above-ground of gold)价值占比大约在2.5%(且一半都是珠宝等fabrication,流通性差)这里隐含的假设是比特币交易是商品交易,而比特币以外的部分涉及应用的加密货币交易可能被美国sec定义为investment contract的风险,发展速度可能低于比特币
Operational Review: Adjusting the structure of technology holdings, increasing investment in consumer and financial technology sectorsIn the first quarter, we maintained a heavy allocation in technology, but adjusted the structure. We reduced holdings in AI hardware that had seen significant increases, where market expectations were fully reflected, and the subsequent profit space was limited. We believe that if we look at AI hardware and applications based on the same assumptions and framework, those with similarly strong competitive advantages, high certainty, such as some leading chip foundries and design tools, as well as AI's B2B applications, have greater profit space. It's just that the realization of fundamentals is relatively late, requiring patience. Additionally, we increased ou
BEDROCK Monthly Report and Happy New Year!!! -202402
Investment Strategy Review: Adjusting AI Investment Structure, Maintaining High PositionsIn January, we made minor adjustments to our AI-related holdings by reducing positions in AI hardware companies that had significant gains, where market expectations were fully priced in, and which had limited room for future returns. However, we increased our investments in semiconductor foundries and design tools companies that also benefit from AI, have a good competitive landscape, high certainty, insufficient market reaction, and decent returns potentials. We continue to prioritize holding companies involved in AI's B2B applications, as well as internet companies that reflect future lifestyle changes and brand consumer products. In January, we began experimenting with establishing some short posit