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- Cary111Cary111
  ·2023-05-03
  摩根大通，富国银行一个也跑不掉
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Cary111Cary111
  ·2023-05-03
  摩根大通，富国银行一个也跑不掉
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,356 评论
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- Cary111Cary111
  ·2023-05-03
  摩根大通，富国银行一个也跑不掉
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,119 评论
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- Cary111Cary111
  ·2023-05-03
  摩根大通，富国银行一个也跑不掉
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,226 评论
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- Cary111Cary111
  ·2023-05-03
  覆巢之下无完卵，美国银行业将会集体雪崩，摩根大通富国银行花旗银行一个也别想跑
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Cary111Cary111
  ·2023-05-03
  摩根大通，富国银行一个也跑不掉
  加息大结局即将上映，美联储“暗语”最受瞩目！
  美联储坦诚相待可能风险更大？市场降息预期这次可能非挨打不可......由于一系列银行倒闭事件为其与持续性通胀的斗争注入了新的不确定性，几位美联储官员在3月份的最后一次政策会议上强调了“灵活性和选择性”
  加息大结局即将上映，美联储“暗语”最受瞩目！
  1,359 评论
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- Cary111Cary111
  ·2021-08-11
  利好中国地产和基建
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,606 评论
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- Cary111Cary111
  ·2021-07-20
  $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$美股泡沫严重，崩盘在即
  1,516 评论
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19:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"加息大结局即将上映，美联储“暗语”最受瞩目！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119505622","media":"金十数据","summary":"美联储坦诚相待可能风险更大？市场降息预期这次可能非挨打不可......由于一系列银行倒闭事件为其与持续性通胀的斗争注入了新的不确定性，几位美联储官员在3月份的最后一次政策会议上强调了“灵活性和选择性”","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美联储坦诚相待可能风险更大？市场降息预期这次可能非挨打不可......</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于一系列银行倒闭事件为其与持续性通胀的斗争注入了新的不确定性，几位美联储官员在3月份的最后一次政策会议上强调了“灵活性和选择性”的必要性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在本周的政策会议上，这仍将是联邦公开市场委员会成员的优先事项，并可能意味着历史性货币紧缩运动的终点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场预计美联储将再次增加25个基点，使基准联邦基金利率从一年多前的接近零上升到5-5.25%的新目标范围。<strong>经济学家关注的焦点不是利率决定本身，而是美联储官员就其未来政策提供的指引。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在3月份，大多数美联储官员认为5-5.25%是今年的最高利率。本周官员们将重新讨论是否该暂停进一步加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>尽管银行业动荡引发了对更严峻的信贷环境的担忧，但对通胀仍然过高的长期担忧使得很难排除进一步加息的可能性。</strong>周四凌晨的美联储利率决议到来之际，正值3月以来美国第四家倒闭的地区性银行——第一共和银行被接管。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">前美联储高级职员凯伦·戴南（Karen Dynan）表示：</p><blockquote><strong>“毫无疑问，考虑到通胀仍然居高不下……他们将需要保持政策紧缩，但我认为利率正在接近峰值也是真实存在的前景。”</strong></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2300af7820e52059ccdbf3a3d10ebd72\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当美联储在3月份上次修订指引时，政策委员会表示，与几个月前相比，它更接近于结束加息行动。政策声明并没有像过去一年那样强调基准利率“持续上升”的必要性，而是表示“一些额外的政策紧缩可能是适当的”。<strong>美联储主席鲍威尔当时敦促记者关注该措辞中的“一些”和“可能”这两个词。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在政策声明的细微变化将受到严密审查的情况下，美联储的一个选择是重复其3月份的措辞或进行略微调整，例如明确指出进一步收紧政策可能<strong>“还”</strong>是合适的。经济学家表示，这可能表明虽然美联储可能不会在6月的会议上再次加息，但仍有望进一步收紧政策。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一些经济学家认为，美联储将重复其在2006年上一个加息周期结束时使用的表述，当时它宣布<strong>“可能需要的任何额外紧缩的程度和时机将取决于通胀和经济增长前景的变化”</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马里兰大学经济学家、纽约联储经济顾问小组成员Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan说，取得适当的平衡至关重要。如果官员们过于明确地同意暂停加息，而经济数据表明有必要提高利率，这可能会迫使他们出尔反尔，重回加息道路。她说：</p><blockquote><strong>“那将非常危险。这正是我认为他们应该避免的情况。”</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最近几周的通胀数据<strong>喜忧参半</strong>。第一季度工资数据强于预期，所谓的就业成本指数在过去七个季度中平均每季度至少上涨1.1%。Jefferies高级经济学家Thomas Simons表示，美联储官员“必须警惕通胀没有任何实质性放缓的情况”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SGH Macro Advisors首席美国经济学家Tim Duy 估计，根据PCE指数，美国核心通胀已经放缓，但基本增速仍保持在近4.5%的高位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛首席经济学家扬·哈祖斯（Jan Hatzius）表示，美联储官员们将避免发出暂停加息的强烈信号，因担心这可能会强化人们对美联储今年突然逆转政策路线并大幅降息的预期。期货市场显示，大多数交易员押注美联储将在今年晚些时候到2024年初将利率降至4.5%以下，而官员对此持反对意见。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Hatizius说，“美联储希望避免让市场得出降息即将到来的结论，因此我认为<strong>政策信号将表明风险倾向于进一步加息”。</strong>Hatizius预计美联储要到2024年才会降息，因为他认为通胀将从现在开始缓慢下降，且经济不会出现急剧下滑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>最大的未知数来自美国银行体系的动荡</strong>。经过上周末的紧张谈判，联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）周一早些时候与摩根大通达成协议，让这家美国最大的银行收购第一共和银行的大部分股份，标志着美国历史上第二大银行倒闭。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除了更多银行破产的威胁外，区域性银行已缩减开支、减少放贷、并采取更保守的立场。他们正等待<strong>美联储即将出台的更严厉的监管标准。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，官员们似乎对即将到来的信贷冲击的强度存在分歧，这可能意味着<strong>未来的利率决定将由更加分裂的货币政策委员会做出。</strong>巴克莱全球研究主席Ajay Rajadhyaksha指出，美联储已经明确表示，控制通胀的过程不会一帆风顺。他说：</p><blockquote><strong>“他们希望为就业市场降温，同时不希望出现大范围的银行业危机，因为那样的话，需求的崩溃是非线性的，而且持续时间更长。但信贷收缩是被允许的吗？是的。”</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，提高联邦债务上限的最后期限迫在眉睫，也加剧了不确定性。美国财政部长耶伦周一警告说，美国最早将于6月1日发生债务违约。政策制定者也曾警告说，美国违约将是一场经济灾难。</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>加息大结局即将上映，美联储“暗语”最受瞩目！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n加息大结局即将上映，美联储“暗语”最受瞩目！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-02 19:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/111647><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储坦诚相待可能风险更大？市场降息预期这次可能非挨打不可......由于一系列银行倒闭事件为其与持续性通胀的斗争注入了新的不确定性，几位美联储官员在3月份的最后一次政策会议上强调了“灵活性和选择性”的必要性。在本周的政策会议上，这仍将是联邦公开市场委员会成员的优先事项，并可能意味着历史性货币紧缩运动的终点。市场预计美联储将再次增加25个基点，使基准联邦基金利率从一年多前的接近零上升到5-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/111647\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/111647","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119505622","content_text":"美联储坦诚相待可能风险更大？市场降息预期这次可能非挨打不可......由于一系列银行倒闭事件为其与持续性通胀的斗争注入了新的不确定性，几位美联储官员在3月份的最后一次政策会议上强调了“灵活性和选择性”的必要性。在本周的政策会议上，这仍将是联邦公开市场委员会成员的优先事项，并可能意味着历史性货币紧缩运动的终点。市场预计美联储将再次增加25个基点，使基准联邦基金利率从一年多前的接近零上升到5-5.25%的新目标范围。经济学家关注的焦点不是利率决定本身，而是美联储官员就其未来政策提供的指引。就在3月份，大多数美联储官员认为5-5.25%是今年的最高利率。本周官员们将重新讨论是否该暂停进一步加息。尽管银行业动荡引发了对更严峻的信贷环境的担忧，但对通胀仍然过高的长期担忧使得很难排除进一步加息的可能性。周四凌晨的美联储利率决议到来之际，正值3月以来美国第四家倒闭的地区性银行——第一共和银行被接管。前美联储高级职员凯伦·戴南（Karen Dynan）表示：“毫无疑问，考虑到通胀仍然居高不下……他们将需要保持政策紧缩，但我认为利率正在接近峰值也是真实存在的前景。”当美联储在3月份上次修订指引时，政策委员会表示，与几个月前相比，它更接近于结束加息行动。政策声明并没有像过去一年那样强调基准利率“持续上升”的必要性，而是表示“一些额外的政策紧缩可能是适当的”。美联储主席鲍威尔当时敦促记者关注该措辞中的“一些”和“可能”这两个词。在政策声明的细微变化将受到严密审查的情况下，美联储的一个选择是重复其3月份的措辞或进行略微调整，例如明确指出进一步收紧政策可能“还”是合适的。经济学家表示，这可能表明虽然美联储可能不会在6月的会议上再次加息，但仍有望进一步收紧政策。一些经济学家认为，美联储将重复其在2006年上一个加息周期结束时使用的表述，当时它宣布“可能需要的任何额外紧缩的程度和时机将取决于通胀和经济增长前景的变化”。马里兰大学经济学家、纽约联储经济顾问小组成员Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan说，取得适当的平衡至关重要。如果官员们过于明确地同意暂停加息，而经济数据表明有必要提高利率，这可能会迫使他们出尔反尔，重回加息道路。她说：“那将非常危险。这正是我认为他们应该避免的情况。”最近几周的通胀数据喜忧参半。第一季度工资数据强于预期，所谓的就业成本指数在过去七个季度中平均每季度至少上涨1.1%。Jefferies高级经济学家Thomas Simons表示，美联储官员“必须警惕通胀没有任何实质性放缓的情况”。SGH Macro Advisors首席美国经济学家Tim Duy 估计，根据PCE指数，美国核心通胀已经放缓，但基本增速仍保持在近4.5%的高位。高盛首席经济学家扬·哈祖斯（Jan Hatzius）表示，美联储官员们将避免发出暂停加息的强烈信号，因担心这可能会强化人们对美联储今年突然逆转政策路线并大幅降息的预期。期货市场显示，大多数交易员押注美联储将在今年晚些时候到2024年初将利率降至4.5%以下，而官员对此持反对意见。Hatizius说，“美联储希望避免让市场得出降息即将到来的结论，因此我认为政策信号将表明风险倾向于进一步加息”。Hatizius预计美联储要到2024年才会降息，因为他认为通胀将从现在开始缓慢下降，且经济不会出现急剧下滑。最大的未知数来自美国银行体系的动荡。经过上周末的紧张谈判，联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）周一早些时候与摩根大通达成协议，让这家美国最大的银行收购第一共和银行的大部分股份，标志着美国历史上第二大银行倒闭。除了更多银行破产的威胁外，区域性银行已缩减开支、减少放贷、并采取更保守的立场。他们正等待美联储即将出台的更严厉的监管标准。然而，官员们似乎对即将到来的信贷冲击的强度存在分歧，这可能意味着未来的利率决定将由更加分裂的货币政策委员会做出。巴克莱全球研究主席Ajay Rajadhyaksha指出，美联储已经明确表示，控制通胀的过程不会一帆风顺。他说：“他们希望为就业市场降温，同时不希望出现大范围的银行业危机，因为那样的话，需求的崩溃是非线性的，而且持续时间更长。但信贷收缩是被允许的吗？是的。”另外，提高联邦债务上限的最后期限迫在眉睫，也加剧了不确定性。美国财政部长耶伦周一警告说，美国最早将于6月1日发生债务违约。政策制定者也曾警告说，美国违约将是一场经济灾难。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":892533707,"gmtCreate":1628670826709,"gmtModify":1628670826709,"author":{"id":"3493271406476446","authorId":"3493271406476446","name":"Cary111","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493271406476446","authorIdStr":"3493271406476446"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"利好中国地产和基建","listText":"利好中国地产和基建","text":"利好中国地产和基建","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892533707","repostId":"1144749817","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":171160094,"gmtCreate":1626715216018,"gmtModify":1626715216018,"author":{"id":"3493271406476446","authorId":"3493271406476446","name":"Cary111","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493271406476446","authorIdStr":"3493271406476446"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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