摩根大通前瞻美联储决议日资产表现：美股可能大涨2.5%，也可能跌1.25%_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

摩根大通前瞻美联储决议日资产表现：美股可能大涨2.5%，也可能跌1.25%

华尔街见闻2023-05-03

摩根大通预计，降息几率仅1%，若降息，标普500可能最大涨2.5%；本周加息、然后暂停行动的几率为55%，若如此，标普可能最大涨1.0%；本周和下月继续加息的几率为45%，这种情形下标普最大跌1.25%美东时间5月3日周三下午，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议结束后将公布利率决议。目前市场普遍预计联储将宣布继续加息25个基点。摩根大通首席经济学家Michael Feroli预计，美联储本月加息25...

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Cary111
·2023-05-03
摩根大通，富国银行一个也跑不掉
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Tyler领导的摩根大通市场情报团队预测了本周三FOMC决议的各种可能情形，以及相应的市场反应。降息的几率小于1%。即使在3月银行业危机的巅峰，市场定价也从未充分体现降息的结果，考虑到当前的金融环境，降息的可能性很低。一旦降息，标普500股指可能涨幅最大达2.5%。不加息、即暂停加息的几率为5%。假如美联储按兵不动，最初的市场反应可能是正面的，但这种波动可能消退，因为投资者可能将暂停行动解读为，未来会有更多银行业危机传染。宣布暂停加息当天，美股可能涨幅最大1.5%。加息、然后暂停行动的几率为55%。这是摩根大通、也是市场定价目前预测的结果。美联储会将银行业危机引发的贷款标准提高视为变相加息的效果。任何被市场解读为美联储要暂停行动的措辞应该都会利好股市。标普500指数会在FOMC决议当天上涨0.5%到1.0%。加息、然后继续加息的几率为45%。这种结果是视数据而定的。6月FOMC会议前，还会公布两次CPI。如果美联储发现此后的CPI通胀没有下行趋势，可能就会继续紧缩。关键要看，美联储的措辞是否还认为适合更多加息。假如保持这种措辞，市场预期的终端利率会上升，可能美股会跌0.75%到1.25%。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":658781474,"gmtCreate":1683121241698,"gmtModify":1683121243258,"author":{"id":"3493271406476446","authorId":"3493271406476446","name":"Cary111","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3493271406476446","authorIdStr":"3493271406476446"},"htmlText":"摩根大通，富国银行一个也跑不掉","listText":"摩根大通，富国银行一个也跑不掉","text":"摩根大通，富国银行一个也跑不掉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/658781474","repostId":2332918419,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}