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- 捡便宜捡便宜
  ·2020-03-14
  这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
  美股暴跌会引发金融危机吗？
  本周，美股大幅跳空低开，标普500指数出现两次触发熔断机制，自年内高点累计跌幅超过20%，美股进入技术性熊市。世界经济面临2008年金融危机以来的最大风险，爆发经济危机的可能性大幅攀升。中国社科院世界
  美股暴跌会引发金融危机吗？
  1,793 评论
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- 捡便宜捡便宜
  ·2018-08-07
  $腾讯控股(00700)$ 起飞
  2,132 6
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- 捡便宜捡便宜
  ·2018-06-26
  部分确认是啥意思呢
  $小米集团(46816)$ 部分确认是啥意思呢确认的就是中签了吗
  2,904 2
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  部分确认是啥意思呢
- 捡便宜捡便宜
  ·2018-03-28
  $腾讯控股(00700)$ 能抄底吗
  1,889 2
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- 捡便宜捡便宜
  ·2018-02-05
  跑了
  $迅雷(XNET)$ 跑了妖股
  1,532 评论
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  跑了
- 捡便宜捡便宜
  ·2018-01-12
  筹码交完了吧
  $迅雷(XNET)$ 拉起来
  1,472 评论
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  筹码交完了吧
- 捡便宜捡便宜
  ·2018-01-12
  $迅雷(XNET)$ 比特币被点名过多少次一样涨，继续加仓
  2,025 3
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- 捡便宜捡便宜
  ·2018-01-11
  今晚到25了
  $迅雷(XNET)$ 反转走势
  2,006 2
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  今晚到25了
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11:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股暴跌会引发金融危机吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143494156","media":"肖立晟宏观经济...","summary":"本周，美股大幅跳空低开，标普500指数出现两次触发熔断机制，自年内高点累计跌幅超过20%，美股进入技术性熊市。世界经济面临2008年金融危机以来的最大风险，爆发经济危机的可能性大幅攀升。中国社科院世界","content":"<p>本周，美股大幅跳空低开，标普500指数出现两次触发熔断机制，自年内高点累计跌幅超过20%，美股进入技术性熊市。世界经济面临2008年金融危机以来的最大风险，爆发经济危机的可能性大幅攀升。中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所组织召开线上讨论会，研讨美股暴跌后续走势及其对全球经济的影响。参会人员包括：张斌，张明，徐奇渊，肖立晟，朱鹤，熊婉婷。以下是根据会议内容整理的纪要。</p>\n<p>1、美国股市为何遭遇暴跌?</p>\n<p>本轮危机的触发点是当前问题冲击和原油价格暴跌。但除了黑天鹅事件以外，美国金融市场本身脆弱性高企才是根本原因。</p>\n<p>首先美股估值过高。无论是相对其他国家还是历史经验，美股市盈率均处于高位。此外，美股市值增速远超企业利润和实体经济。在本轮暴跌前美股市盈率相对盈利增长比率高达1.8，美股市值占GDP的比率高达158%。</p>\n<p>其次，低利率环境下，金融机构风险敞口处于高位。面对日益收窄的金融资产利差，各大金融机构面临三种选择：加杠杆、拉长久期和提高风险偏好。这三个行为对市场的影响有差异，其中加杠杆会让金融机构更依赖短期货币市场的融资，拉长久期会增加对长期债券的需求，提高风险偏好会让更多的资本流入高收益债市场和股票市场。所有的这些行为最终的指向是熨平收益率曲线的同时大幅压缩信用利差，增加金融市场脆弱性。</p>\n<p>其中最典型的是一些原本保守的机构投资者开始转变投资风格。社保基金、养老基金、保险基金、对冲基金等机构投资者因为未来支付是固定的，一旦利率下行，相当于贴现回来的负债端压力上升，因此要求在资产端提高更高收益。提高收益的手段包括：拉长久期(奥地利的百年国债价格飙升)、持有风险资产占比上升(持有美国高收益债、一部分权益资产)。这些行为会导致保守型投资机构的风险敞口增加。这些资产之间的联动效应很强，一旦出现抛售将加剧资产价格下跌。</p>\n<p>最后，算法交易的普及和被动价格交易比例的上升也造成了资产抛售的加剧。对量化及被动价格交易者而言，只要价格下跌触及平仓线，就会自动平仓，最终形成踩踏事件，加速资产价格下跌。目前，全球量化基金规模在万亿美元以上。被动ETF占比不可忽视。社老保对等保守型投资者投资纪律更严格。</p>\n<p>2、美股后续走势展望</p>\n<p>接下来美国金融市场的变数可以从两个视角来观察。短期的变数是油价，在3月18日的OPEC+的技术评估委员会上，以及3月末上一轮减产协议到期之前，如果沙特与俄罗斯达成一定的妥协，则美国和全球金融市场的情绪将有所缓解，反之则将加速滑向危机。中期变数仍然是当前局势的扩散蔓延态势。目前来看，沙特与俄仍有一定的可能达成减产协议，但是当前问题扩散趋势对美国经济和金融压力预计较大。</p>\n<p>我们认为，未来美股可能存在三种演进情况。</p>\n<p>第一，资本市场波动没有引发企业和金融机构违约。在这一场景下，本轮股价暴跌后的经济走势将类似于2000年互联网泡沫：资产价格在泡沫破裂后进入回调区间，并在较短时间内开始修复。</p>\n<p>第二，高收益债企业集中暴雷，金融机构恐慌抛售并引发流动性危机，但危机没有蔓延至实体经济。石油价格大跌对美国能源企业的债券价格产生了冲击。目前，能源企业发行的垃圾债券占到美国债券市场总体市值的17%。如果石油价格维持在目前的低位，美国能源企业的经营状况也会受到严重打击，从而影响其债券的违约率。实际上，由于已经发生的风险，美国能源企业继续从债券市场获得融资的渠道已经被暂时切断。市场风险偏好的逆转可能引发恐慌抛售型踩踏事故，金融机构开始出现危机。</p>\n<p>第三，美国金融危机全面爆发并发生国际传染，日本和欧洲市场金融机构损失惨重，新兴市场国家主权债务危机爆发，实体经济陷入资产负债表衰退。类似2008年金融危机，全球经济陷入衰退。</p>\n<p>未来走势取决于以下几个方面：</p>\n<p>第一是对当前问题的预期。目前全球大范围流行已成事实，接下来在各国传播的严重程度还不确定。预期没有好转之前，全球资本市场将难以走出动荡局面。</p>\n<p>第二是新的黑天鹅。动荡不安的全球金融市场很大程度上也是对未来动荡不安社会和经济局面的示警。过去积累的脆弱环节可能集中暴露，矛盾集中爆发，这其中可能会有脱离我们平时关注视野范围之外的重要事件发生。</p>\n<p>第三是美国实体经济是否与金融市场发生联动。美国居民的养老金是美国股票市场的重要参与者，会通过购入ETF的形式参与股票市场投资，因此个人账户与股市的涨跌有直接的联动性。在股市快速下跌阶段，美国居民的个人养老金账户会直接受损，并影响到当期消费和未来的预期支出。</p>\n<p>第四是各国的政策应对。在美国没有爆发全面危机之前，日本和欧洲也可能率先崩盘，进而拖累全球经济。日本和欧洲受冲击更为严重，经济基本面比较薄弱，并且社老保对等金融机构对美国资产的风险敞口很高，目前欧洲股市已大幅下跌。因此，美国市场的波动将加剧日欧市场的下跌。新一轮的货币和财政刺激政策难以避免，从过去经验来看，在采取应对政策方面，美国在制度设计和政策空间方面有较好保障，欧洲受政治体制的束缚较大，大部分新兴市场经济体则相对被动。</p>\n<p>第五是低利率环境下国际资本的投资惯性是否会恢复。如果低利率环境持续，那么原先的投资逻辑依然成立，并为美股估值提供支撑。全球经济衰退环境下，美国依然是最具吸引力的投资对象，同时美股市场的头部企业依然是好公司。低利率环境下金融机构仍然要提供固定收益，为了增加收益只能再次扩大风险敞口。</p>","source":"lsy1584157150128","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股暴跌会引发金融危机吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-14 11:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/282146.html><strong>肖立晟宏观经济...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周，美股大幅跳空低开，标普500指数出现两次触发熔断机制，自年内高点累计跌幅超过20%，美股进入技术性熊市。世界经济面临2008年金融危机以来的最大风险，爆发经济危机的可能性大幅攀升。中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所组织召开线上讨论会，研讨美股暴跌后续走势及其对全球经济的影响。参会人员包括：张斌，张明，徐奇渊，肖立晟，朱鹤，熊婉婷。以下是根据会议内容整理的纪要。\n1、美国股市为何遭遇暴跌?\n本轮...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/282146.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/282146.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143494156","content_text":"本周，美股大幅跳空低开，标普500指数出现两次触发熔断机制，自年内高点累计跌幅超过20%，美股进入技术性熊市。世界经济面临2008年金融危机以来的最大风险，爆发经济危机的可能性大幅攀升。中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所组织召开线上讨论会，研讨美股暴跌后续走势及其对全球经济的影响。参会人员包括：张斌，张明，徐奇渊，肖立晟，朱鹤，熊婉婷。以下是根据会议内容整理的纪要。\n1、美国股市为何遭遇暴跌?\n本轮危机的触发点是当前问题冲击和原油价格暴跌。但除了黑天鹅事件以外，美国金融市场本身脆弱性高企才是根本原因。\n首先美股估值过高。无论是相对其他国家还是历史经验，美股市盈率均处于高位。此外，美股市值增速远超企业利润和实体经济。在本轮暴跌前美股市盈率相对盈利增长比率高达1.8，美股市值占GDP的比率高达158%。\n其次，低利率环境下，金融机构风险敞口处于高位。面对日益收窄的金融资产利差，各大金融机构面临三种选择：加杠杆、拉长久期和提高风险偏好。这三个行为对市场的影响有差异，其中加杠杆会让金融机构更依赖短期货币市场的融资，拉长久期会增加对长期债券的需求，提高风险偏好会让更多的资本流入高收益债市场和股票市场。所有的这些行为最终的指向是熨平收益率曲线的同时大幅压缩信用利差，增加金融市场脆弱性。\n其中最典型的是一些原本保守的机构投资者开始转变投资风格。社保基金、养老基金、保险基金、对冲基金等机构投资者因为未来支付是固定的，一旦利率下行，相当于贴现回来的负债端压力上升，因此要求在资产端提高更高收益。提高收益的手段包括：拉长久期(奥地利的百年国债价格飙升)、持有风险资产占比上升(持有美国高收益债、一部分权益资产)。这些行为会导致保守型投资机构的风险敞口增加。这些资产之间的联动效应很强，一旦出现抛售将加剧资产价格下跌。\n最后，算法交易的普及和被动价格交易比例的上升也造成了资产抛售的加剧。对量化及被动价格交易者而言，只要价格下跌触及平仓线，就会自动平仓，最终形成踩踏事件，加速资产价格下跌。目前，全球量化基金规模在万亿美元以上。被动ETF占比不可忽视。社老保对等保守型投资者投资纪律更严格。\n2、美股后续走势展望\n接下来美国金融市场的变数可以从两个视角来观察。短期的变数是油价，在3月18日的OPEC+的技术评估委员会上，以及3月末上一轮减产协议到期之前，如果沙特与俄罗斯达成一定的妥协，则美国和全球金融市场的情绪将有所缓解，反之则将加速滑向危机。中期变数仍然是当前局势的扩散蔓延态势。目前来看，沙特与俄仍有一定的可能达成减产协议，但是当前问题扩散趋势对美国经济和金融压力预计较大。\n我们认为，未来美股可能存在三种演进情况。\n第一，资本市场波动没有引发企业和金融机构违约。在这一场景下，本轮股价暴跌后的经济走势将类似于2000年互联网泡沫：资产价格在泡沫破裂后进入回调区间，并在较短时间内开始修复。\n第二，高收益债企业集中暴雷，金融机构恐慌抛售并引发流动性危机，但危机没有蔓延至实体经济。石油价格大跌对美国能源企业的债券价格产生了冲击。目前，能源企业发行的垃圾债券占到美国债券市场总体市值的17%。如果石油价格维持在目前的低位，美国能源企业的经营状况也会受到严重打击，从而影响其债券的违约率。实际上，由于已经发生的风险，美国能源企业继续从债券市场获得融资的渠道已经被暂时切断。市场风险偏好的逆转可能引发恐慌抛售型踩踏事故，金融机构开始出现危机。\n第三，美国金融危机全面爆发并发生国际传染，日本和欧洲市场金融机构损失惨重，新兴市场国家主权债务危机爆发，实体经济陷入资产负债表衰退。类似2008年金融危机，全球经济陷入衰退。\n未来走势取决于以下几个方面：\n第一是对当前问题的预期。目前全球大范围流行已成事实，接下来在各国传播的严重程度还不确定。预期没有好转之前，全球资本市场将难以走出动荡局面。\n第二是新的黑天鹅。动荡不安的全球金融市场很大程度上也是对未来动荡不安社会和经济局面的示警。过去积累的脆弱环节可能集中暴露，矛盾集中爆发，这其中可能会有脱离我们平时关注视野范围之外的重要事件发生。\n第三是美国实体经济是否与金融市场发生联动。美国居民的养老金是美国股票市场的重要参与者，会通过购入ETF的形式参与股票市场投资，因此个人账户与股市的涨跌有直接的联动性。在股市快速下跌阶段，美国居民的个人养老金账户会直接受损，并影响到当期消费和未来的预期支出。\n第四是各国的政策应对。在美国没有爆发全面危机之前，日本和欧洲也可能率先崩盘，进而拖累全球经济。日本和欧洲受冲击更为严重，经济基本面比较薄弱，并且社老保对等金融机构对美国资产的风险敞口很高，目前欧洲股市已大幅下跌。因此，美国市场的波动将加剧日欧市场的下跌。新一轮的货币和财政刺激政策难以避免，从过去经验来看，在采取应对政策方面，美国在制度设计和政策空间方面有较好保障，欧洲受政治体制的束缚较大，大部分新兴市场经济体则相对被动。\n第五是低利率环境下国际资本的投资惯性是否会恢复。如果低利率环境持续，那么原先的投资逻辑依然成立，并为美股估值提供支撑。全球经济衰退环境下，美国依然是最具吸引力的投资对象，同时美股市场的头部企业依然是好公司。低利率环境下金融机构仍然要提供固定收益，为了增加收益只能再次扩大风险敞口。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":236307,"gmtCreate":1533599828437,"gmtModify":1704769484788,"author":{"id":"3468936162971989","authorId":"3468936162971989","name":"捡便宜","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468936162971989","authorIdStr":"3468936162971989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 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