感恩节临近！美股的“假期效应”是玄学吗？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

感恩节临近！美股的“假期效应”是玄学吗？

华尔街见闻2021-11-22

即将到来的感恩节和黑色星期五将如何影响美股市场？华尔街吵成了两派！对于美股来说，11月最后一个完整的交易周结束了，市场准备迎接感恩节假期的到来。 11月26日星期四，美股因感恩节休市一天，星期五则只开半天，纽交所将于美东时间周五下午1点收盘。感恩节不仅是低交易量的代名词，同时也有“假期效应”的说法。有分析认为，感恩节期间的市场将迎来一段大幅波动。但也有分析称，假期效应对美股的影响是短暂的。...

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Wemk
·2021-11-23
[财迷]
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美美滴玩
·2021-11-23
是给上车时机吗
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- 小闸蟹:
  [财迷][财迷][财迷]
  2021-11-23
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Bibikoo
·2021-11-23
感恩节快乐
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TheWorld
·2021-11-22
0元购感恩节大回馈
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Is the \"holiday effect\" of US stocks metaphysics?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba29c780f36a52c4befb1ea1baacf73","symbols_score_info":{"430047":0.9,"430090":0.9,"430198":0.9,"430418":0.9,"430489":0.9,"430510":0.9,"JPM":0.9},"content_text":"即将到来的感恩节和黑色星期五将如何影响美股市场？华尔街吵成了两派！\n\n对于美股来说，11月最后一个完整的交易周结束了，市场准备迎接感恩节假期的到来。\n11月26日星期四，美股因感恩节休市一天，星期五则只开半天，纽交所将于美东时间周五下午1点收盘。\n感恩节不仅是低交易量的代名词，同时也有“假期效应”的说法。\n有分析认为，感恩节期间的市场将迎来一段大幅波动。但也有分析称，假期效应对美股的影响是短暂的。\n华尔街的观点主要分为两派。\n一部分认为，由于假期效应，投资者季节性乐观，以及“黑五”购物节带动消费零售额大幅上升等一系列利好因素，感恩节之后的市场将有可能迎来一波上涨行情。\n综合标准普尔500指数过去70多年的历史走势，投资研究机构Bespoke Investment Group分析得出：\n\n 1945年以来，感恩节当周平均上涨60个基点，最好的回报出现在感恩节的前一天（星期三）。另外，星期五的行情走势也不赖。\n\n\n\n\n但是也有分析认为，假期效应对美股第四季度的市场走势没有真正的可预测性。尽管他们承认，感恩节和黑色星期五之后的股市可能会出现一些波动，但这种影响可能是短暂的。\n上周三，摩根大通对此发表了看法：\n\n 即使我们看到感恩节和黑色星期五前后的市场走势变化，其影响也可能是短暂的，我们预期市场很快就会恢复正常。\n\n为什么美股会有“假期效应”？\n首先，感恩节到圣诞节这段时期是美国传统的消费旺季，尤其是感恩节之后的星期五被称为“黑色星期五”，是美国一年一度的“双十一”购物节，旺盛的消费往往会冲高零售业公司的业绩，拉高公司的股价。\n其次，交易所在感恩节和圣诞节当天会休市，这些额外的休息日将会对市场造成短期的波动，市场往往会在假期前一天看到交易活动增加和回报增加，这种现象被称为“假期效应”。\n不过，这样的规律并不是“百试百灵”。\n虽然有分析认为假期的节日气氛可能会给投资者带来乐观情绪，进而转化为股票回报，但是没有完全吻合的经验数据支持这一点。\n值得注意的是，感恩节和黑色星期五前后的市场走势还可归因于另一个主要因素——购物。\n消费者通常在感恩节期间利用“黑五”促销来大买特买，因此感恩节也被视为消费者健康状况的“情绪指标”。\n如果零售业显示了较好的数据，投资者可能会认为这是一个强劲购物季的开始，从而推高股价。\n反之，如果零售业无法在黑色星期五达到市场预期，投资者的信心可能会暴跌，可能导致股价下跌。\n“假期效应”能否给投资者带来乐观情绪，并转化为股票回报？\n诚然，零售业是美股在黑色星期五前一周至后一周表现最佳的板块。历史数据显示，从黑色星期五开始一直持续到年底的假期消费约占美国零售总额（不包括汽车）的17%至18%。\n从2010年到2020年，标准普尔零售精选指数（SPSIRE）在此期间上涨了3.23%，而标准普尔500指数的平均回报率约为1.8%，非必需消费品股票（零售业下跌的行业）平均回报率为2.57%。\n但是有分析指出，即使零售商在黑色星期五期间的销售强劲，这种表现也与公司的整体盈利能力或财务状况无关。\n此外，在第二年1月份发布第四季度财报之前，投资者对公司的业绩可能并不完全清楚。\n这意味着，市场第四季度的行情走势与黑色星期五的销售数额之间没有必然联系。\n摩根大通在上周的报告中指出：\n\n 投资者应该警惕仅仅因为黑色星期五的销售数额而选择投资。相反，在择股时最好看清公司的整体财务状况。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":875893727,"gmtCreate":1637630019174,"gmtModify":1637630019277,"author":{"id":"3568510221618550","authorId":"3568510221618550","name":"Wemk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ab4711e6a30cd612b36ab91e60ad30","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3568510221618550","idStr":"3568510221618550"},"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875893727","repostId":2185982728,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":875117164,"gmtCreate":1637624548410,"gmtModify":1637624548410,"author":{"id":"3432436743234777","authorId":"3432436743234777","name":"美美滴玩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc1ae21ba1a5565fd00de55225ea9cd","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3432436743234777","idStr":"3432436743234777"},"htmlText":"是给上车时机吗","listText":"是给上车时机吗","text":"是给上车时机吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875117164","repostId":2185982728,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6686172,"gmtCreate":1637627761718,"gmtModify":1637627761749,"authorId":3562806601771624,"author":{"id":3562806601771624,"idStr":"3562806601771624","authorId":3562806601771624,"name":"小闸蟹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1545e896ea8561c2436876b4d538c8a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":875117164,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[财迷][财迷][财迷]","text":"[财迷][财迷][财迷]","html":"[财迷][财迷][财迷]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":875134555,"gmtCreate":1637624019972,"gmtModify":1637624019972,"author":{"id":"4099352750777560","authorId":"4099352750777560","name":"Bibikoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc183f5263b4975a964f765fd459cd5","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4099352750777560","idStr":"4099352750777560"},"htmlText":"感恩节快乐","listText":"感恩节快乐","text":"感恩节快乐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875134555","repostId":2185982728,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":875984730,"gmtCreate":1637594748115,"gmtModify":1637594748115,"author":{"id":"3498032310834282","authorId":"3498032310834282","name":"TheWorld","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf08ecbcdb9e3ebc88cbcf70a1731e2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3498032310834282","idStr":"3498032310834282"},"htmlText":"0元购&nbsp; 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