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MW Tesla's quarterly deliveries are expected to be hit by the chip shortage

Claudia Assis

Consensus seen as 'low,' but Tesla could surprise Wall Street with 'massive' September sales

Tesla Inc. is expected to report third-quarter deliveries in next few days, and is likely still feeling the pinch from the ongoing chip shortage, Wall Street analysts said this week.

Tesla $(TSLA)$ usually reports quarterly deliveries, its proxy for sales, and production numbers within a few days of the end of the quarter.

Investors closely watch the report as a gauge for demand and, increasingly so in recent quarters, as an indication of the effects of pandemic-related shortages on the Silicon Valley EV maker.

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"To this point, we believe the chip shortage markedly constrained supply anddeliveries in the months of July and August ... but is on a massive trajectory in the month of September," said Dan Ives, an analyst with Wedbush, in a note Wednesday.

That's based on his analysis that September sales are likely to range from 145,000 to 150,000 units "with China a major swing factor," he said.

All told, "Tesla should approach potentially (about 230,000) delivery number in the quarter and handily beat our (212,000) estimate and early whisper numbers in the (220,000) range," he said.

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The FactSet consensus is for Tesla to have delivered 204,000 vehicles in the third quarter, including 123,300 Model 3 sedans and 92,800 Model Y compact SUVs.

The consensus "looks a little low," said Joseph Spak, an analyst with RBC Capital. This quarter, eyes are "also on Tesla's production, which we believe is doing an admirable job amid clear supply chain/semi availability issues," he said in a note.

After the sales report, investors' focus likely will shift to quarterly financials and Tesla's future developments, such as capacity buildouts, battery technology, and its autonomous-driving package, Spak said.

Also in focus are second-half volumes, which Chief Executive Elon Musk said would be "a function of chip supply," and the pace of demand in China, the analyst said. Tesla is likely to report third-quarter results in late October or early November.

Earlier in September, Musk said the new, redesigned Tesla Roadster likely will be available in 2023 due to this year's "super crazy supply chain shortages," but qualified that by saying the new deadline assumes that 2022 "is not mega drama."

Tesla shares have gained 12% this year, compared with an advance of around 17% for the S&P 500 index.

-Claudia Assis

$(END)$ Dow Jones Newswires

September 29, 2021 12:26 ET (16:26 GMT)

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